General Election Confirmed To Be Held On December 23, 2007

[Tony Clifton]

The PAD have actually not said they will take to the strets if teh PPP win. They said they would take to the streets if the PPP won and interfered in the judicial due process in relation to Thaksin and others in ther previous government. Seperation of powers should see the executive and legislature not interefeere with on going cases as in most fo the democratic wiorld. Indeed for the executive otr legislature to interfere with the judiciairy is in itself a massive abuse of democracy. Indeed I believe the Sec-Gen of PPP has since come out to say they will not interfere in judicial due process actually recognizingthis point. However, the leader and ofthe PPP has spoken iof doing prercisley that. It remains to be seen if that is pure elctioneering or if the incoming government whoever it is will abide by sepration of powers. Of ourse if a government anywhere in the world interferes with judicial procedure we would expect to see street demonstrations.

Having said that I agree that Thailand is in for decades of growing pains in the advancement of its democracy.

And a perfect example of this interference already going on with paid protesters already trying to interfere with the NLA's work these days, Thaksin being the main character affected.

You mean those people who stormed the legislature (and are continuing to protest) were paid?

Why else would they be there? Jump the fence and get an extra bonus, make it inside the building and get an even bigger reward.

Is their protest a way of expressing every citizen's right and access to corruption?Nope.

Would the TRT government have adopted such a bill? Nope.

Would the PPP accept the adoption of such a bill? Nope.

[blaze]

The PAD have actually not said they will take to the strets if teh PPP win. They said they would take to the streets if the PPP won and interfered in the judicial due process in relation to Thaksin and others in ther previous government. Seperation of powers should see the executive and legislature not interefeere with on going cases as in most fo the democratic wiorld. Indeed for the executive otr legislature to interfere with the judiciairy is in itself a massive abuse of democracy. Indeed I believe the Sec-Gen of PPP has since come out to say they will not interfere in judicial due process actually recognizingthis point. However, the leader and ofthe PPP has spoken iof doing prercisley that. It remains to be seen if that is pure elctioneering or if the incoming government whoever it is will abide by sepration of powers. Of ourse if a government anywhere in the world interferes with judicial procedure we would expect to see street demonstrations.

Having said that I agree that Thailand is in for decades of growing pains in the advancement of its democracy.

And a perfect example of this interference already going on with paid protesters already trying to interfere with the NLA's work these days, Thaksin being the main character affected.

You mean those people who stormed the legislature (and are continuing to protest) were paid?

Why else would they be there? Jump the fence and get an extra bonus, make it inside the building and get an even bigger reward.

Is their protest a way of expressing every citizen's right and access to corruption?Nope.

Would the TRT government have adopted such a bill? Nope.

Would the PPP accept the adoption of such a bill? Nope.

So it's a fact is it? The demonstraters were paid. Or is it just your theory? Even Abhisit has said it is wrong for the NLA to be legislating at this time- he's not being 'paid' too is he?

Edited December 21, 2007 by blaze

[Jai Dee]

International watchdog satisfied with advance voting

Secretary-general of the Election Commission SUTHIPOL THAWEECHAIKARN (สุทธิพล ทวีชัยการ) met with representatives of the International Foundation for Elections (IFES), who had earlier expressed satisfaction with LAST WEEKEND’s advance voting.

Mr. SUTHIPOL disclosed that the IFES members praised the process's efficiency, despite the rumored attempts of vote-buying in certain areas.

The EC Secretary-General informed the IFES members that the large turnout that was observed is an indication of citizens’ eagerness to vote.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 21 December 2007

[Jai Dee]

Surin province dispatches officials to fight crime before election

Governor of Surin province, POONSUK PRANUTONRAPAL (พูลศักดิ์ ประณุทนรพาล) dispatched over 400 police officers, military officers and volunteers to help prevent crime and urge citizens to exercise their right to vote, prior to the election.

Mr. POONSUK was joined at the ceremony by the Deputy Governor of Surin province, the head of the Surin Election Commission and the head of the Surin police.

The 400-strong force that was sent out comprises members of the police and army, hospital workers, paramedics and eager volunteers. Their duties, aside from the prevention of crime, include campaigning for citizens to vote and informing citizens of pertinent election laws.

The Governor of Surin province expressed confidence that a large number of Surin residents who have left to work or study in other provinces will return to vote in the December 23rd election, which he is assured will be a free and fair event.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 21 December 2007

[Jai Dee]

Court rejects petition seeking nullification of advance voting

A petition brought against the Election Commission that sought to invalidate votes cast in advance has been thrown out by the Supreme Administrative Court.

According to the judges of the Supreme Administrative Court, the matter of the absentee voting results is not within their field of responsibility.

Article 219 of the 2007 Constitution states the Supreme Court’s judicial purview extends to the adjudication of cases related to the elections of members of parliament and the senate.

The court noted in its ruling that any disputes involving elections of local officials must be turned over to the Appeal Court.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 21 December 2007

[Jai Dee]

Yala Governor asks EC to assist voters stuck in flood

Governor of Yala Province Theera Mintarasak (ธีระ มินทราศักดิ์) has asked the Election Commission (EC) to prepare aid for citizens who will not be able to vote due to flooding. Heavy flooding has hit the southern region for almost a week and officials are starting to become concerned that citizens will not be able to travel to voting posts.

Mr. Theera has asked that the EC prepare a plan to deal with citizens that are caught in floods. He has suggested that the EC prepares a budget allotment to facilitate boats and other forms of transportation to help citizens travel to voting posts, or alternatively to establish a system to allow citizens to vote at a later date.

Flooding throughout the south has shown signs of lessening but many areas are still heavily inundated. Aid from military and government personnel has been passed out, but at present there is a shortage of transportation.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 21 December 2007

[John K]

I am suddenly getting the feeling it is time to hunker down for a few days. Things are just staring to happen too fast to make any sense. I would think that by Christmas day the new landscape will start to emerge. The only thing of significant importance between now and then is the EC and how they respond.

As for Tony’s comment that the NLA protesters are being paid, I can see there may be some history to support that claim however I can’t be sure in this case. In the past diversionary tactics have been used while other things have been going on. I can’t name any off the top of my head but I do seem to recall them being used.

[hammered]

Persoanlly on the NLA demo i wouldtend to thionk when one looks at the numbers involved that it is unlikely they are paid. I am sure civicgroupscan get that number from their own suppoorters and sympathisers.

I may be in a minority here but I also think there will not be utter chaos on Xmas day. The process leading to the formastion of a new governmentwillbe a slow one in my opinion and only when the shape of the new government to come will be known and what announcements on policies they have made will we see potential for possible demonstrations. The role of the EC will also be critical as it seems some red cards are inevitable -the guy in Uthai Thani being an obvious slam dunk red card. However to take out candidates on more tenuous grounds couldcause problems.

Rememeber it is also in nobodies interests for the economy to keep drifting listlessly as it has for 2 years now. This alone may even find common cause amongst those with business interests across all parties to get a governmnet up and functioning. Econiomic polices will also ned to be enacted before any contetious politcal or consttituionlareform ones so breathing space may also occur there.

Anyway I am a bit more optomisuitc ofthe short term than most maybe evn though i feel PPP could produce an overall win, which as i have mentioned before may even be a good thing forthe country in its democratic development.

[ando]

Hammered, I always respect your well thought out and intelligent posts. But your spelling is atrocious! And it does make your posts hard to read which detracts from their overall impact. A spell-check will fix the problem. The Google tool bar has an easy to use tool bar and is a quick download.

http://toolbar.google.com/T4/index_pack.html

Please don't think I am trying to put you down in any way. That is certainly not my intent. I always look forward to your comments as they are well balanced and fair comment.

[hammered]

Hammered, I always respect your well thought out and intelligent posts. But your spelling is atrocious! And it does make your posts hard to read which detracts from their overall impact. A spell-check will fix the problem. The Google tool bar has an easy to use tool bar and is a quick download.

http://toolbar.google.com/T4/index_pack.html

Please don't think I am trying to put you down in any way. That is certainly not my intent. I always look forward to your comments as they are well balanced and fair comment.

Thanks for that both comment and link;)

Oh and i always read your stuff. yuo sem to have returned after a bit if a break if i rememeber correctly

Anyway off to get spell check!

[hammered]

And I See Uthai Thani man has resigned from the PPP and is thereby disqualified as a candidate. Cynically we could say he got a lot of good publicity for the PPP and as a sacrifice was a small fish as he had no chance of winning. Whatever

[BigSnake]

God help us all if Mr Samak Sundaravej become PM>

[hammered]

God help us all if Mr Samak Sundaravej become PM>

There is one school of thought that goes even if PPP win Samak will not be PM. Lets hope it is true

[blaze]

And I See Uthai Thani man has resigned from the PPP and is thereby disqualified as a candidate. Cynically we could say he got a lot of good publicity for the PPP and as a sacrifice was a small fish as he had no chance of winning. Whatever

His was not the kind of publicity that the PPP wants right now. In every interview with PPP candidates that I have read, they have declared unwavering adherence to the rules. I expect that they pushed this guy out. If they really wanted to turn him into a campaign ploy, they would have publicly and loudly detached him from their ranks- which they also have not done (not publicly).

But regardless- the PR battle has heated up another notch- Abhisit has declared himself for Barry Manilow and ice cream. The visuals... Mind you- I doubt that icecream niblling Manilow fans are the type to launch a war on drugs that leaves a few thousand innocent dead in its wake. Nor do they conjour a picture of someone willing to confine the troops to barracks when the troops would rather be playing in the streets.

Edited December 21, 2007 by blaze

[Tony Clifton]

If you look at the bills they are passing, it is extremely likely the protesters are paid by those affected by one very specific anti-corruption bill mentioned above earlier.

Look at the faces, behavior, way they talk, dress, same as the parade of paid protesters we've seen before. There could be a thousand there, still no reason no one couldn't afford to pay them, been done by TRT countless times. A video cam and a few basic questions asked randomly about the NLA would prove the point within minutes.

[blaze]

If you look at the bills they are passing, it is extremely likely the protesters are paid by those affected by one very specific anti-corruption bill mentioned above earlier.

Look at the faces, behavior, way they talk, dress, same as the parade of paid protesters we've seen before. There could be a thousand there, still no reason no one couldn't afford to pay them, been done by TRT countless times. A video cam and a few basic questions asked randomly about the NLA would prove the point within minutes.

The law that these people are most afraid of is the Internal Security Act that went through unopposed today. Sometimes, people care enough about perceived threats to their liberty that they actually will put themselves at risk to demonstrate- probably, in our own countries- some of on this board have done just that- without being paid. Whether we agree with their principles or not- we have to, I think, allow that some people have strongly felt principles that may be different from ours.

[Gravelrash]

If you look at the bills they are passing, it is extremely likely the protesters are paid by those affected by one very specific anti-corruption bill mentioned above earlier.

Look at the faces, behavior, way they talk, dress, same as the parade of paid protesters we've seen before. There could be a thousand there, still no reason no one couldn't afford to pay them, been done by TRT countless times. A video cam and a few basic questions asked randomly about the NLA would prove the point within minutes.

Hmmm, I think your avatar explains the tunnel vision. Well at least there is one person, aside from the military, that applauds these bills. As to anti-corruption at least the current mob have a pristine record, it must help you sleep well. Or did I read something about resignations? Probably not.

[brahmburgers]

correct me if I'm wrong, but even with all this fuss about elections (and I don't put it down) roughly half the new legislators will be appointed. Isn't that right?

I believe about half will get appointed by a small group of high court judges - who themselves were unelected. If that's so, it certainly leaves a lot of room for conniving, manipulation and pay-offs.

I guess a partial democracy is better than none at all.

[Tony Clifton]

If you look at the bills they are passing, it is extremely likely the protesters are paid by those affected by one very specific anti-corruption bill mentioned above earlier.

Look at the faces, behavior, way they talk, dress, same as the parade of paid protesters we've seen before. There could be a thousand there, still no reason no one couldn't afford to pay them, been done by TRT countless times. A video cam and a few basic questions asked randomly about the NLA would prove the point within minutes.

Hmmm, I think your avatar explains the tunnel vision. Well at least there is one person, aside from the military, that applauds these bills. As to anti-corruption at least the current mob have a pristine record, it must help you sleep well. Or did I read something about resignations? Probably not.

Tunnel vision?

TRT disbanded for running smaller parties.

Massive TRT gatherings where supporters were paid.

Hiring of thugs to disrupt other party rallies.

Hiring thugs to beat up on protesters.

Massive vote buying still going on

What would make these supporters squeaky clean all of a sudden?

Edited December 21, 2007 by Tony Clifton

[chevykanteve]

If you look at the bills they are passing, it is extremely likely the protesters are paid by those affected by one very specific anti-corruption bill mentioned above earlier.

Look at the faces, behavior, way they talk, dress, same as the parade of paid protesters we've seen before. There could be a thousand there, still no reason no one couldn't afford to pay them, been done by TRT countless times. A video cam and a few basic questions asked randomly about the NLA would prove the point within minutes.

Hmmm, I think your avatar explains the tunnel vision. Well at least there is one person, aside from the military, that applauds these bills. As to anti-corruption at least the current mob have a pristine record, it must help you sleep well. Or did I read something about resignations? Probably not.

Tunnel vision?

TRT disbanded for running smaller parties.

Massive TRT gatherings where supporters were paid.

Hiring of thugs to disrupt other party rallies.

Hiring thugs to beat up on protesters.

Massive vote buying still going on

What would make these supporters squeaky clean all of a sudden?

Massive TRT gatherings where supporters were paid.

Hiring of thugs to disrupt other party rallies.

Hiring thugs to beat up on protesters.

Massive vote buying still going on

Prove it. But for that matter, how about the following, Tony (or Somchai, or Sonthi (a common name) .... or whatever):

--How about gatherings of other political parties in which supporters were paid?

--How about hiring of thugs --military and otherwise-- by Suchinda's lot?

--How about massive vote buying by most (every?) party that's ever run for office in this fair country?

--And finally, how about a blunt answer to this question: Is the overthrow of an overwhelmingly-elected prime minister by an army dictator justified? I ask this only.... rhetorically, of course.

[Ricardo]

Is the overthrow of an overwhelmingly-elected prime minister by an army dictator justified? I ask this only.... rhetorically, of course.

Not that I want to go into this yet again, but you do realise that, when he was overthrown by the coup, Thaksin was in no way an elected PM, but was rather appointed caretaker-PM by the reverred Head-of_State, only until a fair election could be organised ?

It is very sad how often this difference seems to be overlooked.

[blaze]

Is the overthrow of an overwhelmingly-elected prime minister by an army dictator justified? I ask this only.... rhetorically, of course.

Not that I want to go into this yet again, but you do realise that, when he was overthrown by the coup, Thaksin was in no way an elected PM, but was rather appointed caretaker-PM by the reverred Head-of_State, only until a fair election could be organised ?

It is very sad how often this difference seems to be overlooked.

I think that many democracies (including Australia, Canada, New Zealand) have a caretaker government- which is the sitting gov't minus legislative authority- after an election is called. The citizens of those countries don't usually regard that stituation (which arises at least once every four years) as a green light to an illegal seizure of state authority by a bunch of well armed men with big tanks.

Edited December 22, 2007 by blaze

[hammered]

Is the overthrow of an overwhelmingly-elected prime minister by an army dictator justified? I ask this only.... rhetorically, of course.

Not that I want to go into this yet again, but you do realise that, when he was overthrown by the coup, Thaksin was in no way an elected PM, but was rather appointed caretaker-PM by the reverred Head-of_State, only until a fair election could be organised ?

It is very sad how often this difference seems to be overlooked.

Constituionally his status was questionable as the caretake rgovernment had exceeded the allowed amount of time to act as caretakers and there was the still unanswered question of whether he resigned or not. Having said that there really is no point opening up this deabte yet again. We are where we are and the country needs to move on somehow. If there can be no coming together of people there can be nothing posiitive. It really is time to move on. Sadly it seems there may not be a will to actually do this.

[hammered]

Back on topic some reports from the UK where Mr. T has made his new home:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml...22/wthai122.xml

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/st...2231349,00.html

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/worl...icle3084984.ece

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7156289.stm

Interesting to see some different reads on the likely outcome of things

[sriracha john]

Unofficial Thai election result to be known before Sunday midnight

BANGKOK -- Thailand's Election Commission (EC) expected the unofficial result of the Dec. 23 election to be known before midnight of the same day, local media reported.

Prapan Naikowit, one of the EC commissioners, said on Saturday that the initial polling result is likely to be known before midnight of Sunday, only 9 hours after the close of the general election polling.

Thailand will hold its general election on Sunday from 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. local time. More than 5,000 candidates from some 40 parties will contest for the 480 parliament seats.

- Xinhua

[John K]

If you look at the bills they are passing, it is extremely likely the protesters are paid by those affected by one very specific anti-corruption bill mentioned above earlier.

Look at the faces, behavior, way they talk, dress, same as the parade of paid protesters we've seen before. There could be a thousand there, still no reason no one couldn't afford to pay them, been done by TRT countless times. A video cam and a few basic questions asked randomly about the NLA would prove the point within minutes.

Hmmm, I think your avatar explains the tunnel vision. Well at least there is one person, aside from the military, that applauds these bills. As to anti-corruption at least the current mob have a pristine record, it must help you sleep well. Or did I read something about resignations? Probably not.

Tunnel vision?

TRT disbanded for running smaller parties.

Massive TRT gatherings where supporters were paid.

Hiring of thugs to disrupt other party rallies.

Hiring thugs to beat up on protesters.

Massive vote buying still going on

What would make these supporters squeaky clean all of a sudden?

Massive TRT gatherings where supporters were paid.

Hiring of thugs to disrupt other party rallies.

Hiring thugs to beat up on protesters.

Massive vote buying still going on

Prove it. But for that matter, how about the following, Tony (or Somchai, or Sonthi (a common name) .... or whatever):

--How about gatherings of other political parties in which supporters were paid?

--How about hiring of thugs --military and otherwise-- by Suchinda's lot?

--How about massive vote buying by most (every?) party that's ever run for office in this fair country?

--And finally, how about a blunt answer to this question: Is the overthrow of an overwhelmingly-elected prime minister by an army dictator justified? I ask this only.... rhetorically, of course.

Interesting post, and it certainly looks you are trying to say the groups that are not as bad as the PPP/TRT/Thaksin group will do this. So correct me if I am wrong in understanding your comment but I read it as; The further you get from doing the correct things the less chance of doing the wrong things. I do find that to be a unique and interesting concept and theory to say the least.

[bulmercke]

So PAD has made it clear they are going to do a dummy spit and go back on the streets trying to stir up trouble and incite another military coup if the PPP win and democracy prevails, even for a short time. Even at its peak in 2006 PAD only managed to rally a small fraction of 1% of total voters to go onto the streets and call for the overthrow of the government. But since the power-base of the PAD is in Bangkok, even such a minute fraction of voters massed in one place can make a very big showing.

The current military dictatorship has done everything in its power to stack the odds against the PPP. They are quite obviously very concerned that genuine free and fair elections would result in democratic representation of the majority of people in the country, who just happen to be the poor peasant class rather than the corrupt elite who have held the peasants down for so long.

OK, here's my predictions;--

If the PPP wins enough votes to govern outright the PAD will go onto the streets to try and create political chaos. The military will then use the situation as an excuse for another coup. This is despite the fact that at best, PAD might be able to rally less than 0.3% of total voters to put on a big show in Bangkok. That's about 100,000 people BTW. Sounds a lot when you put them all in one place for the news cameras, but pales into insignificance when compared with the actual number of voters out there in the countryside. Hardly a democratic representation of overall voter sentiment, but makes a big show on the TV news.

If the PPP wins enough votes to govern only as a coalition government, I think they will have enough sense to stand aside and let the Democrats take over the mess in a coalition government that will eventually self destruct. The "appointed" half senate that the military managed to slip through in the referendum is just another power grab by the elite designed to run interference with a democratically elected government when it is not of their liking.

Either way its a win/win situation for the military dictators and the elite ruling class who endorse them. All they have to do is sit back and wait for the democratic process to fall apart. Then they walk in and seize power again, tightening their grip over the poor peasant class majority even further.

I think we are in for several more years (if not decades) of military interference in democracy in Thailand.

Thailand At The Brink

Daniel Ten Kate - ASIA SENTINEL

20 December 2007

The first election since the 2006 coup may bring a managed democracy, or more chaos

On Sunday, Thailand will hold its first parliamentary elections since the September 2006 coup that ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, ushering in a new period of managed democracy and potentially triggering more instability.

“You can already see evidence that the election will be another episode in the ongoing struggle between the two major versions of Thailand: The old version of the establishment and Thaksin’s new, emerging, globalized version,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, head of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University. “We need to bridge that gap but that has not taken place because the coup group refused to implement any of Thaksin’s policies.”

Thailand remains very divided as people prepare to vote on December 23. Although the military junta has spent 15 months demonizing Thaksin, the exiled premier has maintained a high profile overseas and still remains popular in the country’s poor northeast region, where loyalists in the People Power Party (PPP) — a hybrid version of his banned Thai Rak Thai party — look set to win big.

Thaksin remains a major force in other ways. All the parties have adopted many of his populist measures in some form, revealing just how much TRT changed the political landscape in its five years in power. While some political parties think the election will bring stability, others warn that more discord is likely if the royalist coup group seeks to undermine a strong PPP showing.

“It’s shaping up that a new form of volatility is coming,” Thitinan said.

To the disdain of election officials, the PPP has invoked Thaksin throughout the campaign. Samak Sundaravej, the brash right-winger recruited by Thaksin to lead the party, has said PPP plans to dissolve the military-led investigation into the former premier’s financial dealings and lift the five-year political ban on him and 110 other TRT executives.

The Election Commission has fought back, issuing a serious of “guidelines” in November that said banned TRT members could not make campaign speeches or have their photographs used in campaign material — a decision that even main opposition Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva called a violation of their constitutional rights. Still, the commission plans to bring legal action against at least one PPP member for using Thaksin’s photo on the campaign trail. It also made a controversial decision to drop PPP’s case against junta leaders after documents surfaced revealing a military plan to undermine the party at the polls.

“The argument the commission offered for the ruling on the documents how should I put this was a little bit unclear,” said Gotham Arya, a former election commissioner. “They were sympathizers of the coup. From those documents we can assume the military still has a plan to influence the election,” he said.

Although the PPP appears to set to win the most votes, it remains to be seen if they can form a government. The party hopes to secure 240 seats, enough to guarantee that it can lead the government, said Noppadol Pattama, the party’s deputy secretary-general and Thaksin’s lawyer. Although that is unlikely, he vowed that a PPP-led government would not take revenge on the coup group.

“The military has to play by the rules and must respect and abide by the will of the people,” he said. “Some of the generals might be unhappy about a PPP victory, but we will not do anything to retaliate or take revenge on the junta. We will go ahead working for the people and solving economic problems and getting the country back on track.”

The Democrats, the main opposition party and the only one that has ruled out forming a government with the PPP, say Thaksin is pumping large amounts of money into the campaign and the Election Commission has failed to clamp down on vote buying.

”Every man and his dog knows money is being used in enormous amounts, but yet there has been no action taken by commission on this issue,” said Korn Chatikavanij, deputy secretary-general of the Democrats.

Although traditionally known as a party that opposes military rule, the Democrats this year have come under fire for appearing to accommodate the coup group. Korn rejected those assertions, and said the fact that the military leaders knew they must hold an election within a set timeframe or face protests is a “positive reflection” on the state of Thai democracy.

“Everyone had faith that nobody would have the power to renege on the public promises made by military at the time,” he said. “Too many people, journalists and commentators, demanded that the Thai people and the Democrat party be more forceful against the military, but we've shown the world that the Thai way of solving problems, avoiding confrontation, often yields the best results.”

Polls suggest the Democrats will finish second, but that won’t stop the party from attempting to form a coalition government with smaller parties. As a show of faith in its alliance with Banharn Silpa-Archa, the slippery survivor who leads the regional Chat Thai party and who many suspect will try to worm his way into the premiership, the Democrats decided not to field candidates in constituencies contested by Chat Thai.

Korn also said that the tradition in which the party that wins the most votes gets first shot to form the government is irrelevant.

“At the end of the day, the parliamentary system gives the legitimate right to the majority of MPs to form a government and select a prime minister,” he said. “It doesn't matter from how many parties the MPs come from. If all the other parties find it unpalatable to be in bed with the PPP, then it is a decision for them to make.”

With so much at stake for both Thaksin and the coupmakers, the horse-trading after the election will be intense. Although the Democrats will fight to form the government, PPP is confident that it can convince other parties to come aboard if it wins the most votes.

“When everyone learns the results of the election, parties will urgently contact the leading party as they don't want to be left behind and miss the train,” Noppadol said. “This is the nature of Thai politics, and I don’t see why it would change this time.”

Since no party is likely to win an outright majority, the middle parties hold the key to victory. Chat Thai has vowed to stick with the Democrats but most analysts believe the malleable Banharn can be easily persuaded to switch sides with the right offer.

The other intriguing party is Pua Paendin, a new party formed by ex-Thaksin ally Surakiart Sathirathai. The party has reportedly received an influx of funds from the military and behind-the-scenes support from Prem Tinsulanonda, the highly influential former prime minister who heads the king’s Privy Council. The party has steadily risen in pre-election polls, but may be fragmented, giving Thaksin a possible opening to woo some Pua Paendin MPs to vote for the candidate the exiled premier wants in power.

“The Surakiart faction cannot work with Thaksin at all, but another faction in Pua Paendin has no loyalty to Prem and just wants to win,” said a former Thaksin aide, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Thaksin himself is unlikely to come back for another two or three years, so he can sit back from the outside with the remote control and choose either Banharn or [Pua Paendin leader] Suvit [Khunkitti] to act as a nominee. MPs don’t have to vote along party lines, so that gives Thaksin more options. It’s easier for Thaksin to buy MPs than it was to buy votes.”

PPP rejects allegations that it buys votes or MPs. Thaksin, who will monitor the election from Hong Kong because he is going there for business, “will return to Thailand with dignity sometime after the election and after considering his safety,” Noppadol said.

As the focus shifts to the election, many analysts are watching to see if the military-appointed legislature will try to pass a draconian Internal Security Act just before the election. The National Legislative Assembly has continued to pass laws during the campaign season despite protests from many civil society groups who claim its mandate has expired.

“Even in a diluted form, the Internal Security Act would give the military immense power,” Thitinan said. “The army wouldn’t need another coup. They may see it as an insurance policy against a PPP victory.”

No matter what, PPP’s resurgence has thwarted the military’s plan for a smooth transition to a political system it can easily manipulate.

Edited December 22, 2007 by bulmercke

[hammered]

So PAD has made it clear they are going to do a dummy spit and go back on the streets trying to stir up trouble and incite another military coup if the PPP win and democracy prevails, even for a short time. Even at its peak in 2006 PAD only managed to rally a small fraction of 1% of total voters to go onto the streets and call for the overthrow of the government. But since the power-base of the PAD is in Bangkok, even such a minute fraction of voters massed in one place can make a very big showing.

The current military dictatorship has done everything in its power to stack the odds against the PPP. They are quite obviously very concerned that genuine free and fair elections would result in democratic representation of the majority of people in the country, who just happen to be the poor peasant class rather than the corrupt elite who have held the peasants down for so long.

OK, here's my predictions;--

If the PPP wins enough votes to govern outright the PAD will go onto the streets to try and create political chaos. The military will then use the situation as an excuse for another coup. This is despite the fact that at best, PAD might be able to rally less than 0.3% of total voters to put on a big show in Bangkok. That's about 100,000 people BTW. Sounds a lot when you put them all in one place for the news cameras, but pales into insignificance when compared with the actual number of voters out there in the countryside. Hardly a democratic representation of overall voter sentiment, but makes a big show on the TV news.

If the PPP wins enough votes to govern only as a coalition government, I think they will have enough sense to stand aside and let the Democrats take over the mess in a coalition government that will eventually self destruct. The "appointed" half senate that the military managed to slip through in the referendum is just another power grab by the elite designed to run interference with a democratically elected government when it is not of their liking.

Either way its a win/win situation for the military dictators and the elite ruling class who endorse them. All they have to do is sit back and wait for the democratic process to fall apart. Then they walk in and seize power again, tightening their grip over the poor peasant class majority even further.

I think we are in for several more years (if not decades) of military interference in democracy in Thailand.

Thailand At The Brink

Daniel Ten Kate - ASIA SENTINEL

20 December 2007

The first election since the 2006 coup may bring a managed democracy, or more chaos

On Sunday, Thailand will hold its first parliamentary elections since the September 2006 coup that ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, ushering in a new period of managed democracy and potentially triggering more instability.

“You can already see evidence that the election will be another episode in the ongoing struggle between the two major versions of Thailand: The old version of the establishment and Thaksin’s new, emerging, globalized version,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, head of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University. “We need to bridge that gap but that has not taken place because the coup group refused to implement any of Thaksin’s policies.”

Thailand remains very divided as people prepare to vote on December 23. Although the military junta has spent 15 months demonizing Thaksin, the exiled premier has maintained a high profile overseas and still remains popular in the country’s poor northeast region, where loyalists in the People Power Party (PPP) — a hybrid version of his banned Thai Rak Thai party — look set to win big.

Thaksin remains a major force in other ways. All the parties have adopted many of his populist measures in some form, revealing just how much TRT changed the political landscape in its five years in power. While some political parties think the election will bring stability, others warn that more discord is likely if the royalist coup group seeks to undermine a strong PPP showing.

“It’s shaping up that a new form of volatility is coming,” Thitinan said.

To the disdain of election officials, the PPP has invoked Thaksin throughout the campaign. Samak Sundaravej, the brash right-winger recruited by Thaksin to lead the party, has said PPP plans to dissolve the military-led investigation into the former premier’s financial dealings and lift the five-year political ban on him and 110 other TRT executives.

The Election Commission has fought back, issuing a serious of “guidelines” in November that said banned TRT members could not make campaign speeches or have their photographs used in campaign material — a decision that even main opposition Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva called a violation of their constitutional rights. Still, the commission plans to bring legal action against at least one PPP member for using Thaksin’s photo on the campaign trail. It also made a controversial decision to drop PPP’s case against junta leaders after documents surfaced revealing a military plan to undermine the party at the polls.

“The argument the commission offered for the ruling on the documents how should I put this was a little bit unclear,” said Gotham Arya, a former election commissioner. “They were sympathizers of the coup. From those documents we can assume the military still has a plan to influence the election,” he said.

Although the PPP appears to set to win the most votes, it remains to be seen if they can form a government. The party hopes to secure 240 seats, enough to guarantee that it can lead the government, said Noppadol Pattama, the party’s deputy secretary-general and Thaksin’s lawyer. Although that is unlikely, he vowed that a PPP-led government would not take revenge on the coup group.

“The military has to play by the rules and must respect and abide by the will of the people,” he said. “Some of the generals might be unhappy about a PPP victory, but we will not do anything to retaliate or take revenge on the junta. We will go ahead working for the people and solving economic problems and getting the country back on track.”

The Democrats, the main opposition party and the only one that has ruled out forming a government with the PPP, say Thaksin is pumping large amounts of money into the campaign and the Election Commission has failed to clamp down on vote buying.

”Every man and his dog knows money is being used in enormous amounts, but yet there has been no action taken by commission on this issue,” said Korn Chatikavanij, deputy secretary-general of the Democrats.

Although traditionally known as a party that opposes military rule, the Democrats this year have come under fire for appearing to accommodate the coup group. Korn rejected those assertions, and said the fact that the military leaders knew they must hold an election within a set timeframe or face protests is a “positive reflection” on the state of Thai democracy.

“Everyone had faith that nobody would have the power to renege on the public promises made by military at the time,” he said. “Too many people, journalists and commentators, demanded that the Thai people and the Democrat party be more forceful against the military, but we've shown the world that the Thai way of solving problems, avoiding confrontation, often yields the best results.”

Polls suggest the Democrats will finish second, but that won’t stop the party from attempting to form a coalition government with smaller parties. As a show of faith in its alliance with Banharn Silpa-Archa, the slippery survivor who leads the regional Chat Thai party and who many suspect will try to worm his way into the premiership, the Democrats decided not to field candidates in constituencies contested by Chat Thai.

Korn also said that the tradition in which the party that wins the most votes gets first shot to form the government is irrelevant.

“At the end of the day, the parliamentary system gives the legitimate right to the majority of MPs to form a government and select a prime minister,” he said. “It doesn't matter from how many parties the MPs come from. If all the other parties find it unpalatable to be in bed with the PPP, then it is a decision for them to make.”

With so much at stake for both Thaksin and the coupmakers, the horse-trading after the election will be intense. Although the Democrats will fight to form the government, PPP is confident that it can convince other parties to come aboard if it wins the most votes.

“When everyone learns the results of the election, parties will urgently contact the leading party as they don't want to be left behind and miss the train,” Noppadol said. “This is the nature of Thai politics, and I don’t see why it would change this time.”

Since no party is likely to win an outright majority, the middle parties hold the key to victory. Chat Thai has vowed to stick with the Democrats but most analysts believe the malleable Banharn can be easily persuaded to switch sides with the right offer.

The other intriguing party is Pua Paendin, a new party formed by ex-Thaksin ally Surakiart Sathirathai. The party has reportedly received an influx of funds from the military and behind-the-scenes support from Prem Tinsulanonda, the highly influential former prime minister who heads the king’s Privy Council. The party has steadily risen in pre-election polls, but may be fragmented, giving Thaksin a possible opening to woo some Pua Paendin MPs to vote for the candidate the exiled premier wants in power.

“The Surakiart faction cannot work with Thaksin at all, but another faction in Pua Paendin has no loyalty to Prem and just wants to win,” said a former Thaksin aide, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Thaksin himself is unlikely to come back for another two or three years, so he can sit back from the outside with the remote control and choose either Banharn or [Pua Paendin leader] Suvit [Khunkitti] to act as a nominee. MPs don’t have to vote along party lines, so that gives Thaksin more options. It’s easier for Thaksin to buy MPs than it was to buy votes.”

PPP rejects allegations that it buys votes or MPs. Thaksin, who will monitor the election from Hong Kong because he is going there for business, “will return to Thailand with dignity sometime after the election and after considering his safety,” Noppadol said.

As the focus shifts to the election, many analysts are watching to see if the military-appointed legislature will try to pass a draconian Internal Security Act just before the election. The National Legislative Assembly has continued to pass laws during the campaign season despite protests from many civil society groups who claim its mandate has expired.

“Even in a diluted form, the Internal Security Act would give the military immense power,” Thitinan said. “The army wouldn’t need another coup. They may see it as an insurance policy against a PPP victory.”

No matter what, PPP’s resurgence has thwarted the military’s plan for a smooth transition to a political system it can easily manipulate.

In there is the explanation of how the PPP was formed and what may well happen after the vote. This is nothingto do with democracy. A choice betwen a military overseen democracy or a democracy led by a group of authoritarian socail conservatives (Thaksinistas) with liberal economic poliies is not exactly a choice of anything except for shades of right wing control

[blaze]

So PAD has made it clear they are going to do a dummy spit and go back on the streets trying to stir up trouble and incite another military coup if the PPP win and democracy prevails, even for a short time. Even at its peak in 2006 PAD only managed to rally a small fraction of 1% of total voters to go onto the streets and call for the overthrow of the government. But since the power-base of the PAD is in Bangkok, even such a minute fraction of voters massed in one place can make a very big showing.

The current military dictatorship has done everything in its power to stack the odds against the PPP. They are quite obviously very concerned that genuine free and fair elections would result in democratic representation of the majority of people in the country, who just happen to be the poor peasant class rather than the corrupt elite who have held the peasants down for so long.

OK, here's my predictions;--

If the PPP wins enough votes to govern outright the PAD will go onto the streets to try and create political chaos. The military will then use the situation as an excuse for another coup. This is despite the fact that at best, PAD might be able to rally less than 0.3% of total voters to put on a big show in Bangkok. That's about 100,000 people BTW. Sounds a lot when you put them all in one place for the news cameras, but pales into insignificance when compared with the actual number of voters out there in the countryside. Hardly a democratic representation of overall voter sentiment, but makes a big show on the TV news.

If the PPP wins enough votes to govern only as a coalition government, I think they will have enough sense to stand aside and let the Democrats take over the mess in a coalition government that will eventually self destruct. The "appointed" half senate that the military managed to slip through in the referendum is just another power grab by the elite designed to run interference with a democratically elected government when it is not of their liking.

Either way its a win/win situation for the military dictators and the elite ruling class who endorse them. All they have to do is sit back and wait for the democratic process to fall apart. Then they walk in and seize power again, tightening their grip over the poor peasant class majority even further.

I think we are in for several more years (if not decades) of military interference in democracy in Thailand.

Thailand At The Brink

Daniel Ten Kate - ASIA SENTINEL

20 December 2007

The first election since the 2006 coup may bring a managed democracy, or more chaos

On Sunday, Thailand will hold its first parliamentary elections since the September 2006 coup that ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, ushering in a new period of managed democracy and potentially triggering more instability.

“You can already see evidence that the election will be another episode in the ongoing struggle between the two major versions of Thailand: The old version of the establishment and Thaksin’s new, emerging, globalized version,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, head of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University. “We need to bridge that gap but that has not taken place because the coup group refused to implement any of Thaksin’s policies.”

Thailand remains very divided as people prepare to vote on December 23. Although the military junta has spent 15 months demonizing Thaksin, the exiled premier has maintained a high profile overseas and still remains popular in the country’s poor northeast region, where loyalists in the People Power Party (PPP) — a hybrid version of his banned Thai Rak Thai party — look set to win big.

Thaksin remains a major force in other ways. All the parties have adopted many of his populist measures in some form, revealing just how much TRT changed the political landscape in its five years in power. While some political parties think the election will bring stability, others warn that more discord is likely if the royalist coup group seeks to undermine a strong PPP showing.

“It’s shaping up that a new form of volatility is coming,” Thitinan said.

To the disdain of election officials, the PPP has invoked Thaksin throughout the campaign. Samak Sundaravej, the brash right-winger recruited by Thaksin to lead the party, has said PPP plans to dissolve the military-led investigation into the former premier’s financial dealings and lift the five-year political ban on him and 110 other TRT executives.

The Election Commission has fought back, issuing a serious of “guidelines” in November that said banned TRT members could not make campaign speeches or have their photographs used in campaign material — a decision that even main opposition Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva called a violation of their constitutional rights. Still, the commission plans to bring legal action against at least one PPP member for using Thaksin’s photo on the campaign trail. It also made a controversial decision to drop PPP’s case against junta leaders after documents surfaced revealing a military plan to undermine the party at the polls.

“The argument the commission offered for the ruling on the documents how should I put this was a little bit unclear,” said Gotham Arya, a former election commissioner. “They were sympathizers of the coup. From those documents we can assume the military still has a plan to influence the election,” he said.

Although the PPP appears to set to win the most votes, it remains to be seen if they can form a government. The party hopes to secure 240 seats, enough to guarantee that it can lead the government, said Noppadol Pattama, the party’s deputy secretary-general and Thaksin’s lawyer. Although that is unlikely, he vowed that a PPP-led government would not take revenge on the coup group.

“The military has to play by the rules and must respect and abide by the will of the people,” he said. “Some of the generals might be unhappy about a PPP victory, but we will not do anything to retaliate or take revenge on the junta. We will go ahead working for the people and solving economic problems and getting the country back on track.”

The Democrats, the main opposition party and the only one that has ruled out forming a government with the PPP, say Thaksin is pumping large amounts of money into the campaign and the Election Commission has failed to clamp down on vote buying.

”Every man and his dog knows money is being used in enormous amounts, but yet there has been no action taken by commission on this issue,” said Korn Chatikavanij, deputy secretary-general of the Democrats.

Although traditionally known as a party that opposes military rule, the Democrats this year have come under fire for appearing to accommodate the coup group. Korn rejected those assertions, and said the fact that the military leaders knew they must hold an election within a set timeframe or face protests is a “positive reflection” on the state of Thai democracy.

“Everyone had faith that nobody would have the power to renege on the public promises made by military at the time,” he said. “Too many people, journalists and commentators, demanded that the Thai people and the Democrat party be more forceful against the military, but we've shown the world that the Thai way of solving problems, avoiding confrontation, often yields the best results.”

Polls suggest the Democrats will finish second, but that won’t stop the party from attempting to form a coalition government with smaller parties. As a show of faith in its alliance with Banharn Silpa-Archa, the slippery survivor who leads the regional Chat Thai party and who many suspect will try to worm his way into the premiership, the Democrats decided not to field candidates in constituencies contested by Chat Thai.

Korn also said that the tradition in which the party that wins the most votes gets first shot to form the government is irrelevant.

“At the end of the day, the parliamentary system gives the legitimate right to the majority of MPs to form a government and select a prime minister,” he said. “It doesn't matter from how many parties the MPs come from. If all the other parties find it unpalatable to be in bed with the PPP, then it is a decision for them to make.”

With so much at stake for both Thaksin and the coupmakers, the horse-trading after the election will be intense. Although the Democrats will fight to form the government, PPP is confident that it can convince other parties to come aboard if it wins the most votes.

“When everyone learns the results of the election, parties will urgently contact the leading party as they don't want to be left behind and miss the train,” Noppadol said. “This is the nature of Thai politics, and I don’t see why it would change this time.”

Since no party is likely to win an outright majority, the middle parties hold the key to victory. Chat Thai has vowed to stick with the Democrats but most analysts believe the malleable Banharn can be easily persuaded to switch sides with the right offer.

The other intriguing party is Pua Paendin, a new party formed by ex-Thaksin ally Surakiart Sathirathai. The party has reportedly received an influx of funds from the military and behind-the-scenes support from Prem Tinsulanonda, the highly influential former prime minister who heads the king’s Privy Council. The party has steadily risen in pre-election polls, but may be fragmented, giving Thaksin a possible opening to woo some Pua Paendin MPs to vote for the candidate the exiled premier wants in power.

“The Surakiart faction cannot work with Thaksin at all, but another faction in Pua Paendin has no loyalty to Prem and just wants to win,” said a former Thaksin aide, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Thaksin himself is unlikely to come back for another two or three years, so he can sit back from the outside with the remote control and choose either Banharn or [Pua Paendin leader] Suvit [Khunkitti] to act as a nominee. MPs don’t have to vote along party lines, so that gives Thaksin more options. It’s easier for Thaksin to buy MPs than it was to buy votes.”

PPP rejects allegations that it buys votes or MPs. Thaksin, who will monitor the election from Hong Kong because he is going there for business, “will return to Thailand with dignity sometime after the election and after considering his safety,” Noppadol said.

As the focus shifts to the election, many analysts are watching to see if the military-appointed legislature will try to pass a draconian Internal Security Act just before the election. The National Legislative Assembly has continued to pass laws during the campaign season despite protests from many civil society groups who claim its mandate has expired.

“Even in a diluted form, the Internal Security Act would give the military immense power,” Thitinan said. “The army wouldn’t need another coup. They may see it as an insurance policy against a PPP victory.”

No matter what, PPP’s resurgence has thwarted the military’s plan for a smooth transition to a political system it can easily manipulate.

In there is the explanation of how the PPP was formed and what may well happen after the vote. This is nothingto do with democracy. A choice betwen a military overseen democracy or a democracy led by a group of authoritarian socail conservatives (Thaksinistas) with liberal economic poliies is not exactly a choice of anything except for shades of right wing control

Respectfully Hammered, the rights of citizens to elect authoritarian governments is every bit as democratic as their right to elect any other kind of government. Providing that government sticks to the laws of the land- constitutional, civil and criminal.

If a coalition government - not including the PPP- is formed, I suspect there will be some supporters of that coalition who, watching the messy political chaos- shifting loyalties and horsetrading- will complain that the new PM doesn't have enough control- the balls to exert his control- that he is not sufficiently authoritarian.

As far as social conservatives go- in every western country they consitute a very important consituency that all parties are cognizant of- but in none that I know of would suggest that a government elected by them would be a breech of democractic principles. (For the record- I don't see the PPP as being social conservatives- a term normally used to apply to people who want to roll back the clock on the social mores in society). I think some of the legislature proposed- and not followed through- by the NLA - which, in keeping with forum rules i won't identify- would provide a much better example of social conservatism.

Edited December 23, 2007 by blaze

[jumnien]

Obviously, the PPP will win the popular vote. They will be thwarted by a coalition of losing parties sympathetic to the military who will form the next govt.