The Set's Behaviour On Thursday 25th

[midas]

I do like to passively watch the daily behaviour of the SET which usually moves

within a reasonably predictable tolerance. But today even though it was

quite lethargic this morning, just after lunch it seems to have shot up by over

3 percent. Does anyone happen to know what caused this even when the

DJ is continuing to suffer from sub prime worries ?

[lannarebirth]

I don't really know. Maybe a big player taking a new position. Maybe the broader realization that the CNS is being seen more and more as an anachronistic joke and their time may be coming to an end. Maybe news we'll learn later?

[samtam]

The Hang Seng seems to have shrugged off the Dow Jones decline yesterday in its performance today. I think we're seeing more of a disconnect between the US market and Asian markets. However the Thai market is tiny, so any large buying would impact to the degree that we have seen today.

[cclub75]

I do like to passively watch the daily behaviour of the SET which usually moves

within a reasonably predictable tolerance. But today even though it was

quite lethargic this morning, just after lunch it seems to have shot up by over

3 percent. Does anyone happen to know what caused this even when the

DJ is continuing to suffer from sub prime worries ?

nothing to worry : just a bunch of thai insiders at work.

Therefore, we shall know tomorrow what "super good news" was the cause of this impressive hike (with volume).

As for the known news and other "fundamentals" (I use this word carefully because it's a bad word on the SET)... well Tokyo was down today. Shangai too. Wall Steet was last night in its usual "funny mode special bozo clowns" (down sharply, and up in the last 2 hours).

Oil is again breaching record this morning (Brent). Dollar down. Real bad figures on real estate in the US, on the banks (Merill) etc.

So the usual lot of very bad news. But again : nothing to worry.

Just be contrarian.

Edited October 25, 2007 by cclub75

[midas]

What amazes me is how sentiment changes so drastically within the space of only

twenty-four hours? Take the DJ rally in the U.S. on Tuesday night when surely

they knew that there was bad news coming out the day after about the slowing

real estate market in the U.S. which of course last night ( Wednesday ) translated

to reasonable drop again in prices.

Am I correct the a lot of these movements are by professional fund managers who

are under the constant pressure of trying to make money from moving markets

because otherwise why wouldn't people just sit on the sidelines even for just a few

days if they know things are so uncertain or even more so if they know there's

going to be a release of bad news ?

[midas]

Just be contrarian.

I think you have a point here ! It does seem to operate this way

quite a lot -

[YoungFarangNa]

earlier in the year the government passed those 30% deposit regulations and the SET crashed, only to have the laws withdrawn and a quick recovery. Somebody made billions. I would avoid the SET at all costs.

[PCA]

What amazes me is how sentiment changes so drastically within the space of only

twenty-four hours? Take the DJ rally in the U.S. on Tuesday night when surely

they knew that there was bad news coming out the day after about the slowing

real estate market in the U.S. which of course last night ( Wednesday ) translated

to reasonable drop again in prices.

Am I correct the a lot of these movements are by professional fund managers who

are under the constant pressure of trying to make money from moving markets

because otherwise why wouldn't people just sit on the sidelines even for just a few

days if they know things are so uncertain or even more so if they know there's

going to be a release of bad news ?

what you have seen in the last 2 days is action of the PPT (Plunge Protection Team). This is a trader group recruited from the FED and Government. Before they were physically operating on the floor and in the trading desks at the exchange and now they do it from outside the US via computer as their action is critizised heavily. Since years they are keeping the markets artificially high due to this interference. Especially now they will do everything in their power to avoid a crash as what they definitely cannot afford at this moment is a collopsing dollar and a bearish stock market at the same time.

SET is just a ping pong ball though underpriced. If we make the way up in the US market and break all time highs again the thai market will rapidly outperform.

[cclub75]

An explanation (from TNA).

Thai shares surge 3.17% on energy stock purchases

BANGKOK, Oct 25 (TNA) - The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) composite index on Thursday surged 3.17 per cent thanks to speculative buys in energy stocks as investors believed global oil prices would reach US$100 a barrel, dealers said.

The SET index closed at 893.45 points, up 27.42 points from Wednesday, with a turnover of more than Bt22 billion.

A dealer at Sicco Securities said investors bought energy shares after finding that the mid-December contract was struck at US$100 a barrel and it was expected that the price would continue to advance.

Foreign investors bought energy, petrochemicals and bank issues which helped push the index up sharply, the dealer said.

Another factor which influenced the SET index was the hope that an interest rate cut was expected in the United States next week which would assist in boosting that country's economy. (TNA)-E111

[Irene]

For what it is worth from me, US subprime has nothing to do with Thailand except for those four Thai banks who have the direct investment in the subprime. But Thailand can be affected if there is a slowdown of a US economy which does look now certain. The part of the uncertainty is whether it will go to the extent of a recession. Leading personnel believes of less than 50% chance increased from the previous belief of 30% chance of happening of a recession. DJ is now suffering through event being ignited by subprime in the housing and financial sectors and certain to affect other sectors.

Fortunately for Thailand, Thailand has reduced its dependency on exports to US to less than 20% of all exports while has increased to 40% for export to Asian countries. In my humble view, I fear only for US recession which would have worldwide psychological effects to the stock prices.

Today's rise is overdue and strangely enough net buyers are from local institutions while net sellers are from retail investors. Foreign institutions are in an even position today but have been the net sellers in the past week. There have been many favourable reports on Thailand in the past few weeks e.g.Union Swiss. One speaker from Bear Stern on Bloomberg TV recommended Thailand with sensible reasons that stock prices of other emerging market in Asia have risen too high leaving Thailand right in the bottom despite its recent rise. So Thailand has come to a stage of a good pick to make up for the lost gap. P/e of Thai energy stocks still lag behind others in the region.

[fletchsmile]

Don't forget SET was closed on Tue 23 Oct. Many other regional indices posted strong gains on that day, after bouncing back from Monday's fall. SET therefore also had some relative "catching up" to do. US fell sharply Fri. Many Asian markets followed Monday, US rose Mon, Asia on Tue...so Thailand "missed" the Tue rally.

[midas]

Don't forget SET was closed on Tue 23 Oct. Many other regional indices posted strong gains on that day, after bouncing back from Monday's fall. SET therefore also had some relative "catching up" to do. US fell sharply Fri. Many Asian markets followed Monday, US rose Mon, Asia on Tue...so Thailand "missed" the Tue rally.

yes I can understand that but I just wondered why this occured so late in the day?

The market actually dropped in the morning so it just looked like something

happened around lunchtime to spark this sudden enthusiasm ?

[samran]

phatra's analysis says:

October 25 SET 893.45 +27.42pts +3.17% Value Bt22,334mn

Net Buy/Sell Foreign -Bt17mn Local +Bt1,449mn Retail -Bt1,432mn

The SET was the best performer in the region today owing heavily to the emergence of a significant buy basket in the PM session (speculation is that it was a hedge fund, size THB1.5-THB2bn) despite most foreign institutions continuing to sell this market. The AM and PM sessions felt like a separate market under a separate cycle. Bulls outnumbered bears by 3.5: 1 while the basket seemed to be focusing on PTT+6.5%, PTTEP+7.6%, SCB+3.7%, TOP+4.6% KBANK+4.4%, BANPU+7.2%, RRC+5% & KTB+4.7%. ENERGY was obviously the major benefactor trailed by BANK. Perhaps the 4Q pre-election rally only began today as we would like to remind everyone once again that '08PER-wise Thailand is still 30% cheaper than the region

MEDIA +0.2%

PROP +0.8%

FOOD +1.1%

ICT+1.3%

ETRON +1.3%

TRANS+1.5%

CONMAT+1.5%

PETRO +1.9%

HELTH +2.4%

FIN +2.7%

BANK +3.0%

ENERGY+6.0%

[midas]

phatra's analysis says:

October 25 SET 893.45 +27.42pts +3.17% Value Bt22,334mn

Net Buy/Sell Foreign -Bt17mn Local +Bt1,449mn Retail -Bt1,432mn

The SET was the best performer in the region today owing heavily to the emergence of a significant buy basket in the PM session (speculation is that it was a hedge fund, size THB1.5-THB2bn) despite most foreign institutions continuing to sell this market. The AM and PM sessions felt like a separate market under a separate cycle. Bulls outnumbered bears by 3.5: 1 while the basket seemed to be focusing on PTT+6.5%, PTTEP+7.6%, SCB+3.7%, TOP+4.6% KBANK+4.4%, BANPU+7.2%, RRC+5% & KTB+4.7%. ENERGY was obviously the major benefactor trailed by BANK. Perhaps the 4Q pre-election rally only began today as we would like to remind everyone once again that '08PER-wise Thailand is still 30% cheaper than the region

MEDIA +0.2%

PROP +0.8%

FOOD +1.1%

ICT+1.3%

ETRON +1.3%

TRANS+1.5%

CONMAT+1.5%

PETRO +1.9%

HELTH +2.4%

FIN +2.7%

BANK +3.0%

ENERGY+6.0%

Aha ! The mystery is solved ! Thanks samran

[fletchsmile]

phatra's analysis says:

October 25 SET 893.45 +27.42pts +3.17% Value Bt22,334mn

Net Buy/Sell Foreign -Bt17mn Local +Bt1,449mn Retail -Bt1,432mn

The SET was the best performer in the region today owing heavily to the emergence of a significant buy basket in the PM session (speculation is that it was a hedge fund, size THB1.5-THB2bn) despite most foreign institutions continuing to sell this market. The AM and PM sessions felt like a separate market under a separate cycle. Bulls outnumbered bears by 3.5: 1 while the basket seemed to be focusing on PTT+6.5%, PTTEP+7.6%, SCB+3.7%, TOP+4.6% KBANK+4.4%, BANPU+7.2%, RRC+5% & KTB+4.7%. ENERGY was obviously the major benefactor trailed by BANK. Perhaps the 4Q pre-election rally only began today as we would like to remind everyone once again that '08PER-wise Thailand is still 30% cheaper than the region

Agree that Thailand is looking cheap compared to the rest of the region. Below 5yr, 3yr, 1yr charts, also highlight how Thailand has been lagging. Election goes thru, formation of stable govt (once coalition pacts in place), health of HM. There's looking a fair bit of upside. Personal view: Wouldn't be surprised to see 20% - 30% rise before mid 2008

[fletchsmile]

Mmmm guess the charts disappear if I close my charting tool. Cut and paste seemed to work initially. Anyway suffice to say they've lagged significantly

[AmericanGuy1066]

"Stock markets across Asia rallied Monday, as Wall Street's strong showing Friday and hopes for another US rate cut this week sent benchmarks in Hong Kong, India, South Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia to fresh records"

Thailand is still some way off its peaks of the 90's