Is There A Condo Bubble In Bangkok?

[pkrv]

By recent newspaper reports Bangkok is still by far the least expensive Condo market on a square meter basis in SE Asia when compared to Singapore, Hong Kong or other countries with a significant presence of Multinational Corporations. Vietnam (HCMC)has really taken off and is also now more expensive than Bangkok!

This would argue against a condo bubble in Bangkok.

I'm always surprised by such "inference".

-Prices are much higher in other cities in Asia, compare to BKK

-therefore, there is no bubble in Bangkok

It's a syllogism.

A short cut. An intellectual short cut, that brings nothing whatsoever to the analysis of the situation.

Instead, you should ask real questions :

-does it make sense to compare HK or Singapore with BKK (land scarcity, difference of GDP etc.) ?

-Are the higher prices in Saigon caused by an imbalance (temporary) between offer and demand ? The building boom started recently in Vietnam, compare to BKK etc.

I just want to say that the wise man should go a little bit deeper, in order to assess the situation, that this kind of McDonald way of thinking...

The only thing you have done above is try to invalidate my observations - you have not even addressed the issue of is there a bubble in the Thai condo market?

I would argue a BUBBLE is when prices continue to rise to the point that the everyman can no longer afford the commodity involved and so eventually there are only sellers left with no buyers and prices drop precipetously. Savvy buyers will look for value elsewhere once costs become prohibitive. So do you REALLY think that absolute cost doesn't matter in a global marketplace?

My point is that MACRO Economic forces will begin to come into play here - and Thailand will become relatively more attractive to Multinational Companies who will come to Bangkok and set up shop here as it becomes prohibitively expensive in the "hubs" of Singapore and Hong Kong. The managers of these comanies don't give a dam_n about per Capital GDP - they want to cut costs.This is PRECISELY what happened to the Medical tourism market. Singapore and Hong Kong have already priced themselves out and Bangkok is now the hub of Medical tourism in the world. To ignore macroeconomics in the equation is the REAL McDonald thinking. Singapore and Hong Kong and Vietnam meet the criteria for a "bubble" much more so that Bangkok in terms of REgional valuation.

The countries of SE Asia do not exist in isolated bubbles - there will be a flow of capital and workforce to areas of relative value. If you think an inflow multinational companies couldn't have this effect - ask yourself why Hong Kong, Singpore, and Vietnam are in the current situation (and Shanghai now as well - no lack of land in the surrounds of that city) REcall the fact that Foreigners can ONLY own Condos in Bangkok (unless they want to use a now risky corporate structure) and review the requirements in terms of how many locals must be hired per expat employee - all those professionals (local and expat) competing for a reasonable commute.

Next time try contributing instead of trying to belittle others

A good newbie post - impressive and BTW I agree.

[think_too_mut]

My point is that MACRO Economic forces will begin to come into play here - and Thailand will become relatively more attractive to Multinational Companies who will come to Bangkok and set up shop here as it becomes prohibitively expensive in the "hubs" of Singapore and Hong Kong. The managers of these comanies don't give a dam_n about per Capital GDP - they want to cut costs.This is PRECISELY what happened to the Medical tourism market. Singapore and Hong Kong have already priced themselves out and Bangkok is now the hub of Medical tourism in the world. To ignore macroeconomics in the equation is the REAL McDonald thinking. Singapore and Hong Kong and Vietnam meet the criteria for a "bubble" much more so that Bangkok in terms of REgional valuation.

The MNCs are already in Hong Kong and Singapore, nobody is (even thinking of) moving to BKK. How many new MNCs are being formed and expanding into APJ to consider where they set their shop? When they do, they go where others are and all like to be near China.

And the cost is not prohibitive. With low tax it is cheaper to keep someone on expat package in HKG or SIN than in BKK. And those 2 places have many other advantages over BKK.

Don't mix Toyota and similar factories with MNC HQ. The factories that bring foreign managers are in outskirts or in Rayong and those people mostly chose to live nearby rather than spend hours in a (chaufered) car. That does not do much for central and luxury developments.

Whatever population is already there (Japanese in Thong Lor area, for example) is not swelling.

Someone found there is 60K people on working visa this year. That's over 60% less than 162K people back in 1996.

Sure, more retirees now but you made no mention of them.

Edited November 7, 2007 by think_too_mut

[quiksilva]

By recent newspaper reports Bangkok is still by far the least expensive Condo market on a square meter basis in SE Asia when compared to Singapore, Hong Kong or other countries with a significant presence of Multinational Corporations. Vietnam (HCMC)has really taken off and is also now more expensive than Bangkok!

This would argue against a condo bubble in Bangkok.

Interesting. I just flew back to BKK today from Kuala Lumpur and whilst there, visited a few 50 sqm type single bedroom condo's that were selling for 160K MYR, which is about 47K USD so i figure about 32k/sqm. Much cheaper than Bangkok. Of course, in the KL central, there are expensive places too but the ones I looked at were in a reasonable area. Cars are cheaper there too. BMW 320i was about 75k-80k USD. Here in Thailand is over 130k usd

There are reasonably priced condo's in Bangkok too, but you will have to look beyond areas that have seen huge increases in land values, like Sukhumvit and Sathorn.

As for KL its great, especially if you like violent crime, and don't mind the morality police.

[pkrv]

There are reasonably priced condo's in Bangkok too, but you will have to look beyond areas that have seen huge increases in land values, like Sukhumvit and Sathorn.

As for KL its great, especially if you like violent crime, and don't mind the morality police.

IMO extreamly important aspects to all of this and indeed the reason for seeing a (paper profit) of 50% increase in value in Bangkok over 2/3 years and 0 inclination for investing in KL.

I think Thailand is just getting started and is no longer a destination of last resort for the destitute.

[thaigene2]

Thaigene: How is the sizing and quality? The fact that new projects are targeted at a lower income bracket does not imply that the market is going into a tailspin. What it infers is that developers are monitoring demand and supplying projects to suit. That's a good thing.

Well it's pretty hard to say about sizing vs. quality (assume that's what you mean) in the cheaper places (per sq/m) coming on stream - since they haven't been built yet. But if they are in the same (location, location) areas, and they seem to be pretty close, then it raises the question about price differentials doesn't it?

Without wasting a lot of space here about thickness of concrete, T-bar ceilings vs plaster ceilings, etc, I understand you point. But how does a newly built modest version (like a low-rise - which actually IMHO are coming into fashion anyway) compare with a hi-rise place one soi away when both have a pool/fitness room but one is 43,000 b/sm vs 65,000 ?? So "no" I'm not talking about a tailspin - but common sense pricing..

None of that, however, answers my main point - that Thais - not foreigners (seem to be) buying all these smaller places - but why? To live in - as said above that's counter to Thai culture. So what then? To rent? To re-sell? To whom???? and most importantly - did they BORROW the money to do so??

[donx]

[None of that, however, answers my main point - that Thais - not foreigners (seem to be) buying all these smaller places - but why? To live in - as said above that's counter to Thai culture. So what then? To rent? To re-sell? To whom???? and most importantly - did they BORROW the money to do so??

The answer is as an investment and as a means to limit/reduce their taxes.

EDIT: No, they do not BORROW the money.

Edited November 8, 2007 by donx

[pkrv]

[None of that, however, answers my main point - that Thais - not foreigners (seem to be) buying all these smaller places - but why? To live in - as said above that's counter to Thai culture. So what then? To rent? To re-sell? To whom???? and most importantly - did they BORROW the money to do so??

The answer is as an investment and as a means to limit/reduce their taxes.

EDIT: No, they do not BORROW the money.

Sorry donx - you cannot reduce an entire race to these concepts - we are at odds.

[donx]

None of that, however, answers my main point - that Thais - not foreigners (seem to be) buying all these smaller places - but why? To live in - as said above that's counter to Thai culture. So what then? To rent? To re-sell? To whom???? and most importantly - did they BORROW the money to do so??

The answer is as an investment and as a means to limit/reduce their taxes.

EDIT: No, they do not BORROW the money.

Sorry donx - you cannot reduce an entire race to these concepts - we are at odds.

He wanted an answer so I gave him one. Obviously I am not referring to all Thais (at least I thought that would be obvious).

[pkrv]

None of that, however, answers my main point - that Thais - not foreigners (seem to be) buying all these smaller places - but why? To live in - as said above that's counter to Thai culture. So what then? To rent? To re-sell? To whom???? and most importantly - did they BORROW the money to do so??

The answer is as an investment and as a means to limit/reduce their taxes.

EDIT: No, they do not BORROW the money.

Sorry donx - you cannot reduce an entire race to these concepts - we are at odds.

He wanted an answer so I gave him one. Obviously I am not referring to all Thais (at least I thought that would be obvious).

Agreed but not all would understand.

[bingobongo]

commodities bubble - check

equity bubble - check

condo bubble - check

debt bubble - check

that is the magic of too low rates and money pumping

inflation is not wealth creation, but currency destruction

Edited November 8, 2007 by bingobongo

[Hampstead]

i dont think of bkk nowadays a condo bubble, more of a thai speculators market place.

jp morgan and kimeng both roughly argue that sitting in deposits in the thai banking system are anywhere from 7-8 trillion baht

so certainly many thais can afford to purchase condos at 2,3 or even some at 20-30 million baht

but what happens in 10 years time, when the condo is old compared to the spanky new trendy condos of the day, and you want to try and sell the condo, will people want to pay the going rate of an older condo even in so called prime locations or will they opt for the brand new one being built of that present day with ever increasing superior designs and build quality.

bangkok has plenty land for building and will just enlarge itself, unlike signapore and hong kong which have limited space according to their small islands land mass

so is it really a great investment to spend 20 mill on a condo in central bkk? when they still exists plenty of shanty towns where people are paying a heck of a lot less money to live in their own abode. and with the increase of transport in all areas of bkk over the coming years then really what is the reasoning in paying such a premium for a small area in the sky?

is it just the fact that siam paragon is near by? or are there more logical reasons to invest 10,20 or even 50 mill for a condo

the only ones who make a great investment are the developers who buy 2 rai of land for 300 million and sell units for 2 billion baht in total.

bkk has always been a great place to rent in my oppinion

Edited November 10, 2007 by Hampstead

[backflip]

"so is it really a great investment to spend 20 mill on a condo in central bkk? when they still exists plenty of shanty towns where people are paying a heck of a lot less money to live in their own abode. and with the increase of transport in all areas of bkk over the coming years then really what is the reasoning in paying such a premium for a small area in the sky?"

You're reiterating bingo bongo's point. Will you be satisfied with ANY housing, or do you want something nice? I didn't work for 4 decades to retire to a rundown apartment, perhaps you did.

[Hampstead]

"so is it really a great investment to spend 20 mill on a condo in central bkk? when they still exists plenty of shanty towns where people are paying a heck of a lot less money to live in their own abode. and with the increase of transport in all areas of bkk over the coming years then really what is the reasoning in paying such a premium for a small area in the sky?"

You're reiterating bingo bongo's point. Will you be satisfied with ANY housing, or do you want something nice? I didn't work for 4 decades to retire to a rundown apartment, perhaps you did.

OMG

your reply made me smile

i am in my mid 30's self made and live a very comfortable life by 1st world standards

so NO i dont live in a rundown place, but many thais do, and many thais still live in central bkk in rundown apartments as you put it

i stay 100 mts from the bts station and my condo is 236 sqm, the building is 12 years old. my amenities are excellent. i pay 51k a month

across the street, there is a new project just finished where the cheapest condo is 225 sqm and priced at 22 mill baht.

now the new project will have the latest build quality for 2007, but is it really worth 22 mill? bear in my mind it's a stones throw in distance from my place, so whats the advantage for an investor? you spend your 22 mill and for 1,2 or 3 years the project is new and exciting then 10 years later there are another 40-50 new and more exciting projects being built. so how about the investor who has spent 22 mill for a condo and its now 10 years old, how much will you receive then in the light of increasing amounts of competition for higher build quality and exciting new designs of future developments. Not to mention the fact of the various differing locations with the increase of mass transport throughout bkk.

22 million can still buy many properties in signapore and with the lack of land mass of the island and the increase of economic growth prospects, signapore as an investment for property will always make more financial sense for me than bkk

it certainly doesnt stop me living in bkk just because i dont own a property in the sky

i live very happily in bkk by renting and my savings are very happy earning money elsewhere in this wonderfull world we live

[JimsKnight]

Well said Hampy!

[pkrv]

Hi Hampstead - Rental v.s. Ownership well horses for courses here there will be no answer.

It sounds like you have a fab pad However if you can find out how much the condo cost when it was built 12 years ago and how much it is worth today that would definitely shed some light onto the matter - you may be in a position to provide some good hard figures. Could you help on this one? - PKRV

Edited November 10, 2007 by pkrv

[thaigene2]

Hi Hampstead - Rental v.s. Ownership well horses for courses here there will be no answer.

It sounds like you have a fab pad However if you can find out how much the condo cost when it was built 12 years ago and how much it is worth today that would definitely shed some light onto the matter - you may be in a position to provide some good hard figures. Could you help on this one? - PKRV

Let me try to give a partial answer to that based on two low-rise condos now selling off-plan with similar completin dates around 18-20 months from now. One is called "Seed" on Pahonyothin Soi 14 (40 metres in from pahonyothin) and the other is called "Prom" on Pahonyothin Soi 2 (but actually quite far up - around Soi 6 the way it works out). Both are very near the BTS and both a short walk (5-10 mins) to the trendy Soi Aree shopping/restaurants.

Prom is asking 80,000 M2, while Seed is asking 43,000 M2. While Prom has a pool and fitness room and Seed does not, and using Hampstead's theory above, as scarcity becomes a thing of the past, and as all those Thais who bought to rent out and shift assets for tax purposes (using Donx's thesis), the same conslusion can be reached.

Ten years from now, the guy who paid 8 million bought for an average size 2-bdrm is asking probably twice as much for rent as the guy who paid 4.3 million. That would be correct, right?

You really think he will get twice as much ten years from now than the guy who paid nearly half as much in vurtually the same location? I don't. Hampstead's theory, to my mind, is more likely the one that will stand the test of time on whether buying all these little joints at realtively high prices makes sense ten years from now - in a palce where he rightly points out is already a good-deal for rentals - and they are dropping too!

[number6]

you buy a house or condo to live in and dont worry to much about prices - for investment like any investment

up and down - thailand is not UK house prices fall here - places are not maintained - its a gamble - if like me you like

a bit of a gamble so what - I wont say never never put more here than you can walk away from but its really

very good advice - I say prices are cheap here - you may win you may loose - like everywhere you must plan

on worst loose 30-50% of your investment best double your money (over 5 years +) - last thought if you

worry about it to much then dont do it - look at Northern rock shares - property in USA

[pkrv]

Thanks thaigene2 - you gave a forward prediction, which is fine, but no one has answered the question of what has happened to these high quality condos over the last 12 years which is the kind of the info we are lacking.

I don't know but if places like The River are a success (and I see no reason for them not being so, but good grief I don't have a crystal ball) then I will be seeing a 100% profit over maybe 6 years?

The point is when you exit the property market it is doubtful if you can return and are exposed. Over 50/60/70+ years in Hampstead’s, terms you are out of the market. I would issue a warning that those UK citizens who retired to Cyprus (renting because it was cheap a long time ago) and then literally found living in caves (much to the UK’s embarrassment) because they did not understand these issues, is also a point to bear in mind.

[thaigene2]

Thanks thaigene2 - you gave a forward prediction, which is fine, but no one has answered the question of what has happened to these high quality condos over the last 12 years which is the kind of the info we are lacking.

I don't know but if places like The River are a success (and I see no reason for them not being so, but good grief I don't have a crystal ball) then I will be seeing a 100% profit over maybe 6 years?

The point is when you exit the property market it is doubtful if you can return and are exposed. Over 50/60/70+ years in Hampstead’s, terms you are out of the market. I would issue a warning that those UK citizens who retired to Cyprus (renting because it was cheap a long time ago) and then literally found living in caves (much to the UK’s embarrassment) because they did not understand these issues, is also a point to bear in mind.

In order to properly answer the question about those already standing for ten+ years you'd need to do a proper comparative study. Maybe some exist. Otherwise it's very much casual observation. Along those lines, I've noticed the purpose-built places designed by the owner as pure high-end rental,a s well as purpose-built 5 star hotels seem to be in great shape after ten years.

When the single owner/family company is involved in building a hotel or a rental building (as an asset they plan to retain for a long time) they most likely keep a very close eye on their suppliers to ensure they don't try to switch cheaper products for the ones specified, and will maintain the property to ensure it is attractive. A condo developer, on the other hand, is a big company who's sole aim is to sell as many condos as fast as possible, build as fast as possible, and turn the whole lot over to the Condo Assn once the Developer's commitments have been met - again as fast as possible. In fact once they've covered their costs and profits, they probably don't really care if many buyers don't complete the purchases when construcction is finished - they may have already covered the costs during the installments phase.

So if you accept the above premise, then you can start checking around. Think about some of the hotels that have been around for 20 years or more...the Four Seasons (forget what it was called before), the Landmark, the varous Centre Points, Queen's Park, Hyatt, Sheratons, Marriotts...then wonder why the supposd A-Grade-build condos from the same era don't measure up in quality (at least as viewed by the naked eye..).

[pkrv]

thaigene2 – It’s an interesting one - I look at these issues from a personal long term security issue, and increasing value does tend to focus people on maintaining the value of their investments (in most cases anyway, if they are rational).

Also even if I could see prices over the last 12 years they would just be indicative because we have seen a sea change in building regulations in recent years (The Park falls under these).

One way of negating some of the conditions you are seeing is in the contracts

Three years maintenance up front on transfer - if people balk at that then how will they respond when it comes time to pay annually?

Contracted to complete or lose 30% deposit.

So yes as with all these things due diligence needs to be applied.

I agree you are more vulnerable when you enter the budget market so have to be extra vigilant and set your expectations accordingly - There have been some good recent posts on this. I would also add for this market the down side is if people retire too early and run out of money, and then become difficult as they attempt to live ‘for free’. Again protection within the contract is needed (no access to communal areas lifts etc).

[bingobongo]

yes, there is a bubble as interest rates are artificially low and they keep adding to oversupply. one thing pkrv fails to accept is that......

One reason the housing debate gets so emotional is that many people cannot distinguish between where they live and who they are. Their home feels like their self. And how can you put a price on your self? bvRealtors and lenders exploit this emotion for personal profit, destroying the financial lives of millions.

Others take a more practical view, and are willing to separate their sense of self from where they live. They can and have saved huge amounts of money by renting or owning a house well within their means, and can watch the housing bubble implode with equanimity.

Edited November 11, 2007 by bingobongo

[highdiver]

there is a bubble....

a big bubble of buyers that dont stop buying. and the prices keep going up.

its a shame for those who sold out a condo way back in 2006 and then moved the money to the west..

they lost the evaluation of the real estate and the apreciation of the currency..

Its funny how those posting the dooms day prediction are the ones not living in Thailand

[craigt3365]

I don't know about a bubble, but as economies go, there are booms and there are busts. Take the US for example. My parents just told me about a housing development with a major builder who is discounting prices 25%! The homes are 440k USD. How would you like to be the guy who bought 6 months ago at 440k and now can get that same house for 330k. 3 years ago prices were going crazy.

Bangkok, and much of Thailand, is booming in terms of housing. A slowdown will occur for sure. Not sure about a bust, but it can not continue as a boom like it is. Never has, never will.

[highdiver]

I don't know about a bubble, but as economies go, there are booms and there are busts. Take the US for example. My parents just told me about a housing development with a major builder who is discounting prices 25%! The homes are 440k USD. How would you like to be the guy who bought 6 months ago at 440k and now can get that same house for 330k. 3 years ago prices were going crazy.

Bangkok, and much of Thailand, is booming in terms of housing. A slowdown will occur for sure. Not sure about a bust, but it can not continue as a boom like it is. Never has, never will.

it will continue because for the price of a small old dirty appartment in London or any other city in europe you can get a huge penthouse in bangkok and living expenses are a fraction.

[craigt3365]

I don't really agree with that. I use to, but due to the runup in condo prices, Bangkok is on par with most major US cities. I sold my 1000 sf condo 3 blocks from Central Park in Manhattan for 600k USD. Awesome building, great facilities, view of the Hudson River, right next to the subway...and of course in Manhattan. I looked in Bangkok this past summer and was shocked at the prices. Yes, prices are lower, but to get good quality, you have to pay a lot.

Yes, the cost of living is way lower in Bangkok...but so is the infrastructure, quailty of air, etc, etc. So, I can not get a condo in Bankok for a fraction of what I had in NYC. Unless you call 70% a fraction.

Same is true of Vegas. You can get a really nice condo for 400k right next to the strip. Great views, awesome restaurants, etc. And you don't have to worry about future values (if you look long term!), maintenance issues, ownership issues, etc.

I am 100% committed to living in Thailand, just trying to make sense of the prices!!!! ;-)

[quiksilva]

Yes, prices are lower, but to get good quality, you have to pay a lot.

Ok you are saying that it costs less to get good quality here. Obviously quality always comes at a price.

Good quality materials are finite, and some of these have to be imported. This can make some luxury materials more expensive here than at home. Land values are rising due to demand from developers who are looking to add more parcels to their land bank, because they keep selling their previous projects.

Oh and Bingo Bongo I'll agree with you that interest rates are very low. Artificially low though? What do you mean by that? In whose interest is it to keep interest rates low on a global level?

As you probably know there has never been so much liquidity in the world's financial markets, it's unprecedented. Low interest rates and inflation are not supposed to go hand in hand, yet here we are, its happening everywhere.

So what would you do? Keep interest rates suppressed to suppress inflation (if only slightly) or are you a proponents of the Laissez-faire approach, even if that could mean ruining the financial well being of entire Nations?

Edited November 12, 2007 by quiksilva

[donx]

Yes, prices are lower, but to get good quality, you have to pay a lot.

Ok you are saying that it costs less to get good quality here. Obviously quality always comes at a price.

Good quality materials are finite, and some of these have to be imported. This can make some luxury materials more expensive here than at home. Land values are rising due to demand from developers who are looking to add more parcels to their land bank, because they keep selling their previous projects.

Oh and Bingo Bongo I'll agree with you that interest rates are very low. Artificially low though? What do you mean by that? In whose interest is it to keep interest rates low on a global level?

As you probably know there has never been so much liquidity in the world's financial markets, it's unprecedented. Low interest rates and inflation are not supposed to go hand in hand, yet here we are, its happening everywhere.

So what would you do? Keep interest rates suppressed to suppress inflation (if only slightly) or are you a proponents of the Laissez-faire approach, even if that could mean ruining the financial well being of entire Nations?

I will be the first to admit that I am not an economist, but someone correct me if I'm wrong. It's my understanding that the US Fed lowers interest rates to encourage economic growth. They increase interest rates to fight inflation. Therefore I believe that lower interest rates and inflation actually do go hand in hand. Am I missing something here experts?

[quiksilva]

Hmm yes my bad. :oops: Thanks.

The high liquidity / low interest rate mix is suppressing yields in real estate markets around the world because there is too much liquidity in the global banking system looking for a home and thus, I suppose that they do not want to increase interest rates seeing as that will only add to this problem.

[pkrv]

Bangkok is on par with most major US cities. I sold my 1000 sf condo 3 blocks from Central Park in Manhattan for 600k USD. Awesome building, great facilities, view of the Hudson River, right next to the subway...and of course in Manhattan. I looked in Bangkok this past summer and was shocked at the prices. Yes, prices are lower, but to get good quality, you have to pay a lot.

Hi craigt3365 you are obviously US based and thanks for being open and honest with price and size. In trying to standardise what you are saying - I make it (but can get numbers wrong, not one of my good points )

Your US property - Size 93 sqm - upmarket central NY location - price 20.4 m THB (Don't know if Lease or Free Hold)

My UK property - size 100 sqm - upmarket central London location - price 56 m THB (Free Hold)

My Bangkok property (soon to be) - size 140 sqm - upmarket central Bangkok location - price now around 21 m THB (originally 14.5m and Free Hold) - (and I think I will be slumming it in the UK due to the fantastic facilities available and it's 40% bigger 2 baths 3 loos, walk in wardrobes, that kind of stuff)

The properties are around the same size (give or take a bit)

Given that in the past London and New York prices were comparable - I actually think the reason for the massive confusion in valuation is the complete collapse in value of the USD against all world currencies (and perhaps the recent collapse in US property values?) - IMO That is why some people are saying Bangkok is expensive and others it is dirt cheap.

It is now the world stage that needs to be considered as IMO the US has decided (for some reason) to make a type of final curtain call.

Edited November 12, 2007 by pkrv

[thaigene2]

I don't know about a bubble, but as economies go, there are booms and there are busts. Take the US for example. My parents just told me about a housing development with a major builder who is discounting prices 25%! The homes are 440k USD. How would you like to be the guy who bought 6 months ago at 440k and now can get that same house for 330k. 3 years ago prices were going crazy.

Bangkok, and much of Thailand, is booming in terms of housing. A slowdown will occur for sure. Not sure about a bust, but it can not continue as a boom like it is. Never has, never will.

it will continue because for the price of a small old dirty appartment in London or any other city in europe you can get a huge penthouse in bangkok and living expenses are a fraction.

Unfortutanely for the poor slob who lived in that place on his sheet-metal workers salary and skills, he will NOT be able to live year-round in Thailand - unless he is 50+ and has a nice-union-negotiated pension to fall back upon. Selling your crappy little council flat in Brixton and buying a condo in Thailand won't give you the right to live here more than 6 months a year - that's reality.

Edited November 12, 2007 by thaigene2