Where's The Us$ Heading To ?

[lannarebirth]

From the CNBC website in part.

Markets are presently undergoing a major reconfiguration as investors continue to adjust to signs that the European economy has hit the wall, squeezed by a combination of surging energy prices and tight monetary conditions, overlaid with a credit crunch for good measure," said Darren Gibbs, a senior economist at Deutsche Bank.

That had led the market to price in rate cuts for the euro zone, and policy easing in Japan, Australia and New Zealand for good measure. blah, blah, bla, blah, blah........

"Predictions of a recovery in the dollar are now looking good," added Gibbs, noting the dollar index looked to have broken out of a seven-year downtrend. A couple of points. 1) The $USD has not broken out of it's downtrend yet, but it certainly might. It will still have resistance at almost every level overhead. 2) I am generally nervous anytime a consensus about anything is reached so rapidly, though I'm the first to admit that the one way trade in the dollar descent worked out just fine for the one way crowd.

The dollar index which measures it against a basket of currencies was up at five-month highs of 76.047, having climbed from 73.42 in just a week.

Hope so!!

Hey, maybe currency trading is linked to the olympic medal count. I think you are more right than wrong here.

[Lost in LOS]

``We are looking for the euro-dollar to move down over the year, but feel that the current move is a bit too fast,'' said Emma Lawson, a currency strategist in London at Merrill Lynch, which still expects the dollar to rise to $1.48 per euro by January. ``The dollar has started from a position of being undervalued while a lot of these currencies are overvalued.''

another trading day like friday and we will see 1.48 in the afternoon today

got this on the exchange rate site today 1.00 EUR = 1.48981 USD Naam you called it right again ....... can you tell me when I can get 40 baht to the dollar again so I can be ready

[Naam]

``We are looking for the euro-dollar to move down over the year, but feel that the current move is a bit too fast,'' said Emma Lawson, a currency strategist in London at Merrill Lynch, which still expects the dollar to rise to $1.48 per euro by January. ``The dollar has started from a position of being undervalued while a lot of these currencies are overvalued.''

another trading day like friday and we will see 1.48 in the afternoon today

got this on the exchange rate site today 1.00 EUR = 1.48981 USD Naam you called it right again ....... can you tell me when I can get 40 baht to the dollar again so I can be ready

Jimmy, i will consider your request after sampling the drinks you provide next week when we meet joke aside, we are presently below 1.48 @1.47814

[LaoPo]

.............. we are presently below 1.48 @1.47814

Now $ 1.472.

A good thing for the world economy with oil below $ 114 at present and declining other commodity prices as well.

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

To address the OP's question "where's the $USD heading to"? It's heading up to probe/flatten/deslope it's 40 month ema. It's got 4 1/2 years of positive divergances in it's chart that say eventually it will move higher still. The GBP OTOH is going to 1.35 eventually (slight chance it makes new highs first).

I personally would bet no more than 12 baht on my prophecy, but I think it's correct anyway. Time will tell.

[naklang]

Any speculation as to the effect on Eurozone with the recent Russian sabre rattling? One would think that as tensions mount, the financial elite will realize that when push comes to shove, the country with the biggest and baddest Navy gets the oil. Europe might find itself sputtering. It's in Russia's best interest to keep the oil price HIGH. Just a thought.

Edited August 15, 2008 by naklang

[VegasVic]

Any speculation as to the effect on Eurozone with the recent Russian sabre rattling? One would think that as tensions mount, the financial elite will realize that when push comes to shove, the country with the biggest and baddest Navy gets the oil. Europe might find itself sputtering. It's in Russia's best interest to keep the oil price HIGH. Just a thought.

No, actually it is not in Russia's best interest to keep oil prices high, just as it is not in OPEC's best interest. Had oil prices remained in the $60-$70/bbl range then the worldwide public outcry would have been muted and isolated, instead it is a deafening chorus from all parts of the globe. I would liken it to the old story about boiling a frog. If you throw a frog into a boiling pot of water it will immediatly jump out, however if you place a frog into a pot of water and then slowly turn up the heat it will remain there until it is boiled alive. Because of the greed of OPEC, traders in the pits and hedge funds that helped to cause this speculative bubble, the public outcry has forced the hand of many governments (even reluctant ones like the U.S.) around the world to adress the energy problem, and in doing so these goverments will be putting hundreds of billions of dollars over the coming years into R&D for solar,wind,geothermal,hydrogen fuel cells,advanced battery systems and various synthetic and biofuels, not to mention the rapid expansion of nuclear power facilitiies. In less than a full generation, the internal combustion gasoline engine will be a thing of the past, so those nations that rely on oil production to support their economy had better invest those petrodollars very wisely (and many of the middle eastern soveriegn wealth funds have done just that by making substantial investments in the U.S. and Dollar denominated asests recently). Now back to where the dollar is headed to, it looks like $1.467 for the Euro, $1.86 for sterling, and just over 110 for the Yen as of the close on Friday(so much for all those wonderful cherry picked articles that have been posted here recently). Oil was able to make a late day come back and closed above $113 and gold continued its fall from grace to $788/ounce (who knows if gold continues to plummet at this pace it just might get back below $670/ounce before the end of August). I have had a good chuckle as I read some of the recent posts here, although it does seem to me that most are sour grapes, its too bad that some out there didn't short oil at $1.38 and gold at $980 or swap out their Euro and pound assets and into Dollar denominated assets as I have suggested for many months now. Now I'm off to hit a bucket of golf balls and enjoy another beautiful sunset in Sedona

[naklang]

Any speculation as to the effect on Eurozone with the recent Russian sabre rattling? One would think that as tensions mount, the financial elite will realize that when push comes to shove, the country with the biggest and baddest Navy gets the oil. Europe might find itself sputtering. It's in Russia's best interest to keep the oil price HIGH. Just a thought.

No, actually it is not in Russia's best interest to keep oil prices high, just as it is not in OPEC's best interest. Had oil prices remained in the $60-$70/bbl range then the worldwide public outcry would have been muted and isolated, instead it is a deafening chorus from all parts of the globe. I would liken it to the old story about boiling a frog. If you throw a frog into a boiling pot of water it will immediatly jump out, however if you place a frog into a pot of water and then slowly turn up the heat it will remain there until it is boiled alive. Because of the greed of OPEC, traders in the pits and hedge funds that helped to cause this speculative bubble, the public outcry has forced the hand of many governments (even reluctant ones like the U.S.) around the world to adress the energy problem, and in doing so these goverments will be putting hundreds of billions of dollars over the coming years into R&D for solar,wind,geothermal,hydrogen fuel cells,advanced battery systems and various synthetic and biofuels, not to mention the rapid expansion of nuclear power facilitiies. In less than a full generation, the internal combustion gasoline engine will be a thing of the past, so those nations that rely on oil production to support their economy had better invest those petrodollars very wisely (and many of the middle eastern soveriegn wealth funds have done just that by making substantial investments in the U.S. and Dollar denominated asests recently). Now back to where the dollar is headed to, it looks like $1.467 for the Euro, $1.86 for sterling, and just over 110 for the Yen as of the close on Friday(so much for all those wonderful cherry picked articles that have been posted here recently). Oil was able to make a late day come back and closed above $113 and gold continued its fall from grace to $788/ounce (who knows if gold continues to plummet at this pace it just might get back below $670/ounce before the end of August). I have had a good chuckle as I read some of the recent posts here, although it does seem to me that most are sour grapes, its too bad that some out there didn't short oil at $1.38 and gold at $980 or swap out their Euro and pound assets and into Dollar denominated assets as I have suggested for many months now. Now I'm off to hit a bucket of golf balls and enjoy another beautiful sunset in Sedona

The oil boom is directly responsible for Russia's re-emergence as a world power. Their political and financial elite certainly would not be happy to see $50 oil again. Their current regime is about "right now". All this govt funded R&D is nice, but it will take years just to cut through the politics, let alone actually begin reducing dependence on hydrocarbons. Its a potent, compact package not easily replaced.

[VegasVic]

Any speculation as to the effect on Eurozone with the recent Russian sabre rattling? One would think that as tensions mount, the financial elite will realize that when push comes to shove, the country with the biggest and baddest Navy gets the oil. Europe might find itself sputtering. It's in Russia's best interest to keep the oil price HIGH. Just a thought.

No, actually it is not in Russia's best interest to keep oil prices high, just as it is not in OPEC's best interest. Had oil prices remained in the $60-$70/bbl range then the worldwide public outcry would have been muted and isolated, instead it is a deafening chorus from all parts of the globe. I would liken it to the old story about boiling a frog. If you throw a frog into a boiling pot of water it will immediatly jump out, however if you place a frog into a pot of water and then slowly turn up the heat it will remain there until it is boiled alive. Because of the greed of OPEC, traders in the pits and hedge funds that helped to cause this speculative bubble, the public outcry has forced the hand of many governments (even reluctant ones like the U.S.) around the world to adress the energy problem, and in doing so these goverments will be putting hundreds of billions of dollars over the coming years into R&D for solar,wind,geothermal,hydrogen fuel cells,advanced battery systems and various synthetic and biofuels, not to mention the rapid expansion of nuclear power facilitiies. In less than a full generation, the internal combustion gasoline engine will be a thing of the past, so those nations that rely on oil production to support their economy had better invest those petrodollars very wisely (and many of the middle eastern soveriegn wealth funds have done just that by making substantial investments in the U.S. and Dollar denominated asests recently). Now back to where the dollar is headed to, it looks like $1.467 for the Euro, $1.86 for sterling, and just over 110 for the Yen as of the close on Friday(so much for all those wonderful cherry picked articles that have been posted here recently). Oil was able to make a late day come back and closed above $113 and gold continued its fall from grace to $788/ounce (who knows if gold continues to plummet at this pace it just might get back below $670/ounce before the end of August). I have had a good chuckle as I read some of the recent posts here, although it does seem to me that most are sour grapes, its too bad that some out there didn't short oil at $1.38 and gold at $980 or swap out their Euro and pound assets and into Dollar denominated assets as I have suggested for many months now. Now I'm off to hit a bucket of golf balls and enjoy another beautiful sunset in Sedona

The oil boom is directly responsible for Russia's re-emergence as a world power. Their political and financial elite certainly would not be happy to see $50 oil again. Their current regime is about "right now". All this govt funded R&D is nice, but it will take years just to cut through the politics, let alone actually begin reducing dependence on hydrocarbons. Its a potent, compact package not easily replaced.

The answers are, Yes,Yes, Yes, and the last is a little more complicated, but by 2025 I would expect that less than 50% of all vehicles on the road worldwide will be run on fossil fuels, when I refered to the internal combustion gasoline engine being a thing of the past by that time my meaning was that they will not be for sale at your local dealerships but many will still be on the road. As far as Russia goes they just made a very critical error in judgement with their invasion of Georgia. In one fell swoop they virtually assured the invitation of the Ukraine and Georgia to NATO, they assured the deployment of the missle shield in Poland, they also gave proof to all the naysayers that have said "go slow and be very careful" if you want to invest in Russia (and foriegn investment will likely slow to a trickle), and last but not least there is a very good possibility that the G-8 will once again become the G-7! All in all it was not a very good week for the Russians and as we post here currently there are Russian troops and tanks on the way to Tiblisi despite the fact that Russia signed a cease fire and agred to withdraw their troops. Apparently Mr. Putin and Mr. Medvedev thought that while the U.S. was tied up in Iraq and Afganistan and since the European community was begining an economic downturn and relies on Russia for a good portion of their energy, that they would not be able to put up a solid front against them. Very bad move vlad The russian people will once again pay the price for their leaders miscalculation.

[VegasVic]

Any speculation as to the effect on Eurozone with the recent Russian sabre rattling? One would think that as tensions mount, the financial elite will realize that when push comes to shove, the country with the biggest and baddest Navy gets the oil. Europe might find itself sputtering. It's in Russia's best interest to keep the oil price HIGH. Just a thought.

No, actually it is not in Russia's best interest to keep oil prices high, just as it is not in OPEC's best interest. Had oil prices remained in the $60-$70/bbl range then the worldwide public outcry would have been muted and isolated, instead it is a deafening chorus from all parts of the globe. I would liken it to the old story about boiling a frog. If you throw a frog into a boiling pot of water it will immediatly jump out, however if you place a frog into a pot of water and then slowly turn up the heat it will remain there until it is boiled alive. Because of the greed of OPEC, traders in the pits and hedge funds that helped to cause this speculative bubble, the public outcry has forced the hand of many governments (even reluctant ones like the U.S.) around the world to adress the energy problem, and in doing so these goverments will be putting hundreds of billions of dollars over the coming years into R&D for solar,wind,geothermal,hydrogen fuel cells,advanced battery systems and various synthetic and biofuels, not to mention the rapid expansion of nuclear power facilitiies. In less than a full generation, the internal combustion gasoline engine will be a thing of the past, so those nations that rely on oil production to support their economy had better invest those petrodollars very wisely (and many of the middle eastern soveriegn wealth funds have done just that by making substantial investments in the U.S. and Dollar denominated asests recently). Now back to where the dollar is headed to, it looks like $1.467 for the Euro, $1.86 for sterling, and just over 110 for the Yen as of the close on Friday(so much for all those wonderful cherry picked articles that have been posted here recently). Oil was able to make a late day come back and closed above $113 and gold continued its fall from grace to $788/ounce (who knows if gold continues to plummet at this pace it just might get back below $670/ounce before the end of August). I have had a good chuckle as I read some of the recent posts here, although it does seem to me that most are sour grapes, its too bad that some out there didn't short oil at $1.38 and gold at $980 or swap out their Euro and pound assets and into Dollar denominated assets as I have suggested for many months now. Now I'm off to hit a bucket of golf balls and enjoy another beautiful sunset in Sedona

The oil boom is directly responsible for Russia's re-emergence as a world power. Their political and financial elite certainly would not be happy to see $50 oil again. Their current regime is about "right now". All this govt funded R&D is nice, but it will take years just to cut through the politics, let alone actually begin reducing dependence on hydrocarbons. Its a potent, compact package not easily replaced.

By the way I don't expect that oil will go down to $50/bbl (I am not sure why you picked that number out of the hat?) in the next 6 months or so, oil will likely find a level in the $80-$90 range and settle in there. The russians and OPEC will be very happy if oil does indeed stabilize in that range

[britmaveric]

Dunno think free fall is in, and expecting $50-$75 range - oils made their dosh for the last year or so - time to retreat and take their dosh to the bank.

[Naam]

As far as Russia goes they just made a very critical error in judgement with their invasion of Georgia. In one fell swoop they virtually assured the invitation of the Ukraine and Georgia to NATO, they assured the deployment of the missle shield in Poland...

that's completely wrong Your Honour! what you have stated happened before Russia crossed the borders of Georgia. and the critical error in judgment was made by somebody who pulls the strings in a well known house in Washington. it took only a few days for the international media and community to find out who exactly was the aggressor and who was the defender and the opinion tide of disapproval/approval is changing by the hour. slowly it surfaces that Saakashvili is a psycho and a lying bastard. Condi Rice looked very uncomfortable and embarrassed standing next to him when he spoke publicly during her visit. nevertheless she had to say what she was told to say.

p.s. FAUX News and Bill O'Reilly present of course their own "tvft²" (twisted version for <deleted>)

[Naam]

Dunno think free fall is in, and expecting $50-$75 range - oils made their dosh for the last year or so - time to retreat and take their dosh to the bank.

does that mean they haven't yet banked the money and carry it still around in their pockets?

[britmaveric]

Unfortunately can't carry it, need transport by the truckload!!!

[VegasVic]

As far as Russia goes they just made a very critical error in judgement with their invasion of Georgia. In one fell swoop they virtually assured the invitation of the Ukraine and Georgia to NATO, they assured the deployment of the missle shield in Poland...

that's completely wrong Your Honour! what you have stated happened before Russia crossed the borders of Georgia. and the critical error in judgment was made by somebody who pulls the strings in a well known house in Washington. it took only a few days for the international media and community to find out who exactly was the aggressor and who was the defender and the opinion tide of disapproval/approval is changing by the hour. slowly it surfaces that Saakashvili is a psycho and a lying bastard. Condi Rice looked very uncomfortable and embarrassed standing next to him when he spoke publicly during her visit. nevertheless she had to say what she was told to say.

p.s. FAUX News and Bill O'Reilly present of course their own "tvft²" (twisted version for <deleted>)

Naam with all due respect I think you are the one getting a very slanted view of what is currently occurring in Georgia. If you really think that all Americans get their news from a talk show host like ORielly (sounds more like something that lao po would spout off), then that only goes to show what a distorted view of reality you have been spoon fed over there As far as "all that I had stated had happened before the Russians invaded Georgia" goes, all you need to do is to read any major international newspaper this past Friday to see that on Thursday Poland signed a pact with the U.S. to put a missile shield base in their country(Poland had been waivering up until the Russian invasion). As far as the Ukraine and Georgias' enterance into NATO goes, as of a week and a half ago it had been talked about but was on the back burner, now I feel that you will see the Ukraine and Georgia on the fast track to NATO membership. As I am posting here, there are "legitimate international news organizations" that are reporting that Russian troops are within 25 miles of Tiblisi, now the last time I looked on a map Tiblisi was a long way from south Ossetia where the Russians claimed there interests were ( in protecting the seperatists). As for Saakkashvili, he does seem to have the appearance of a bit of a "slick character" (kind of reminds me of another slick character that we here in the U.S. had as president during most of the 1990's), but it was the Russians invasion, and their push well beyond south Ossetia that gave him the moral upper hand on the international stage. I don't know how Condi looked standing next to Saakashvili, but I can tell you that she looked very good and very serious on the two news shows here in the states that I saw her on this morning, when she was posed the question as to wheather or not the G-8 should go back and becaome the G-7, she was very clear that it was up to the member nations of the G-7, but that she would not be surprized if that occured. Hopefully the Russians will honor the latest cease fire and drawdown of troops that they signed yesterday, I guess we will have to wait and see and revisit this in a week or so

[Naam]

If you really think that all Americans get their news from a talk show host like ORielly (sounds more like something that lao po would spout off), then that only goes to show what a distorted view of reality you have been spoon fed over there

the 15 years (1989 till 2005) living in the Greatest Nation on Earth™ have given me quite some insight from which sources the average american citizen receives his/her information. for me the case is closed as not relevant to "where's the $ heading to?"

[naklang]

Any speculation as to the effect on Eurozone with the recent Russian sabre rattling? One would think that as tensions mount, the financial elite will realize that when push comes to shove, the country with the biggest and baddest Navy gets the oil. Europe might find itself sputtering. It's in Russia's best interest to keep the oil price HIGH. Just a thought.

No, actually it is not in Russia's best interest to keep oil prices high, just as it is not in OPEC's best interest. Had oil prices remained in the $60-$70/bbl range then the worldwide public outcry would have been muted and isolated, instead it is a deafening chorus from all parts of the globe. I would liken it to the old story about boiling a frog. If you throw a frog into a boiling pot of water it will immediatly jump out, however if you place a frog into a pot of water and then slowly turn up the heat it will remain there until it is boiled alive. Because of the greed of OPEC, traders in the pits and hedge funds that helped to cause this speculative bubble, the public outcry has forced the hand of many governments (even reluctant ones like the U.S.) around the world to adress the energy problem, and in doing so these goverments will be putting hundreds of billions of dollars over the coming years into R&D for solar,wind,geothermal,hydrogen fuel cells,advanced battery systems and various synthetic and biofuels, not to mention the rapid expansion of nuclear power facilitiies. In less than a full generation, the internal combustion gasoline engine will be a thing of the past, so those nations that rely on oil production to support their economy had better invest those petrodollars very wisely (and many of the middle eastern soveriegn wealth funds have done just that by making substantial investments in the U.S. and Dollar denominated asests recently). Now back to where the dollar is headed to, it looks like $1.467 for the Euro, $1.86 for sterling, and just over 110 for the Yen as of the close on Friday(so much for all those wonderful cherry picked articles that have been posted here recently). Oil was able to make a late day come back and closed above $113 and gold continued its fall from grace to $788/ounce (who knows if gold continues to plummet at this pace it just might get back below $670/ounce before the end of August). I have had a good chuckle as I read some of the recent posts here, although it does seem to me that most are sour grapes, its too bad that some out there didn't short oil at $1.38 and gold at $980 or swap out their Euro and pound assets and into Dollar denominated assets as I have suggested for many months now. Now I'm off to hit a bucket of golf balls and enjoy another beautiful sunset in Sedona

The oil boom is directly responsible for Russia's re-emergence as a world power. Their political and financial elite certainly would not be happy to see $50 oil again. Their current regime is about "right now". All this govt funded R&D is nice, but it will take years just to cut through the politics, let alone actually begin reducing dependence on hydrocarbons. Its a potent, compact package not easily replaced.

By the way I don't expect that oil will go down to $50/bbl (I am not sure why you picked that number out of the hat?) in the next 6 months or so, oil will likely find a level in the $80-$90 range and settle in there. The russians and OPEC will be very happy if oil does indeed stabilize in that range

http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/ima...rices_Chart.htm

$50 is pretty much the average inflation adjusted price over the last 60 years. Lets face it, the goo was in the $10/barrel range ten years ago. And the truth about China and its demographics/social forecasts are leading to the wheels falling off of the story of this unstoppable Asian growth machine. Add to this, the honeymoon bliss for the Euro is ending with the tide coming back in for the dollar. All of this is oil negative in a big way.

[Naam]

LRB, what say you?

[lannarebirth]

LRB, what say you?

I think the trendline intersecting at 145 is clear, obvious support. It should provide a bounce as the $USD is waaay overbought in the short term. My guess is that it will not hold in the intermediate term and that any bounce will not exceed the downward sloping weekly 34ema. There is better intermediate and long term support for the Euro at 135ish and given that it's most recent move up took it well above trend, I expect this correction will take it below trend. I think to the weekly 204ema. That's just my guess and that and 3.50 will get you a cup of cafe Americano at Starbucks.

It should also be noted als, the Euro showed much fewer of the negative divergances displayed by other non dollar currencies while on the ascent. While it may or may not make new highs, I expect it to fare better tha many of the other western non dollar currencies.

[chiang mai]

I sense that much of the recent dollar bounce was caused by the unwinding of European commodities and not a true strengthening of the dollar per se. If the reading of the US m3 money supply is to be believed it seems that the fun of the past two weeks was simply a short vacation before the true pain really begins.

[lannarebirth]

I sense that much of the recent dollar bounce was caused by the unwinding of European commodities and not a true strengthening of the dollar per se. If the reading of the US m3 money supply is to be believed it seems that the fun of the past two weeks was simply a short vacation before the true pain really begins.

That's possible. Remember bottoming is a process, and while there may be some specific price low, that may not be the point that is most advantageous for entering that currency. Also, if the $USD makes new lows, I wouldn't assume that every currency that benefited from it's falling previously, will be on the list of beneficiarys again. Previously the winners were western currencies that are "not dollars" and asian currencies. I think greater selectivity will be involved in the next round of repricing.

[Pakboong]

I am puzzled by the growth rate of the money supply (m3) On a three month basis the growth rate has fallen from almost 19% to just 2.1%.

The growth rate in bank loans has ground to a halt and might even be negative.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/08/mor...raction-in.html

I was assuming that the Fed was just printing more money to throw at the failing banks and apparently, that is not the case.

[naklang]

I am puzzled by the growth rate of the money supply (m3) On a three month basis the growth rate has fallen from almost 19% to just 2.1%.

The growth rate in bank loans has ground to a halt and might even be negative.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/08/mor...raction-in.html

I was assuming that the Fed was just printing more money to throw at the failing banks and apparently, that is not the case.

There are titanic sized inflationary and deflationary forces vying with one another now. The energy based inflationary pressure and the deflationary credit collapse. I think it is pretty obvious to the fed and any other CB that there is simply no way to print themselves out of this one. The magnitude of the problem is simply stupefying. Therefore, I vote that deflation wins this round until the excesses are purged. I was in Shenzhen in Mar. '06 and again 2 months ago. The negative change in business climate is jaw dropping. Big trouble in little China. The Chinese govt. is finished allowing the Yuan to rise since they are fully aware that individual producers raising prices for their goods is going to cut demand further. Better make up the difference with the exchange rate. Chinese demographics along with the US point to a future deflationary trend no matter what the CB try to accomplish with money supply. Japan learned that lesson and continues to learn it.

http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/200...19/1272286.aspx

Edited August 20, 2008 by naklang

[LaoPo]

Anybody going to watch this on August 21, 2008 in the USA ?

With Warren Buffett, Pete Peterson & Dave Walker - an exclusive one-night event on Aug. 21.

I.O.U.S.A.: The Movie

http://www.iousathemovie.com/#

http://www.iousathemovie.com/press/meeting/ PRESS

LaoPo

Edited August 20, 2008 by LaoPo

[daisy08]

any advice would be greatly appreciated. i am leaving thailand next week and getting my apartment deposit back (about 56,000 baht). of course, i got the baht when the dollar was low and now it is at the weakest in 9 months. i can cash it in today or anytime until next friday but i have no idea if the dollar will continue to weaken. any sugeestions there? looking for a crystal ball of course. is there another option such as opening up something like an ING account or something where i can later withdraw it, if/maybe when the dollar weakens again? i am not sure though i have access to a thai ING account in the states though.

the money isn't much but it is just frustrating to me because of the timing. thanks!

[daisy08]

any advice would be greatly appreciated. i am leaving thailand next week and getting my apartment deposit back (about 56,000 baht). of course, i got the baht when the dollar was low and now it is at the weakest in 9 months. i can cash it in today or anytime until next friday but i have no idea if the dollar will continue to weaken. any sugeestions there? looking for a crystal ball of course. is there another option such as opening up something like an ING account or something where i can later withdraw it, if/maybe when the dollar weakens again? i am not sure though i have access to a thai ING account in the states though.

the money isn't much but it is just frustrating to me because of the timing. thanks!

actually disregard my question. i realized i am losing only $100USD. for some reason, i thought it was more. sltill sleepy. sorry.

[VegasVic]

LRB, what say you?

I think the trendline intersecting at 145 is clear, obvious support. It should provide a bounce as the $USD is waaay overbought in the short term. My guess is that it will not hold in the intermediate term and that any bounce will not exceed the downward sloping weekly 34ema. There is better intermediate and long term support for the Euro at 135ish and given that it's most recent move up took it well above trend, I expect this correction will take it below trend. I think to the weekly 204ema. That's just my guess and that and 3.50 will get you a cup of cafe Americano at Starbucks.

It should also be noted als, the Euro showed much fewer of the negative divergances displayed by other non dollar currencies while on the ascent. While it may or may not make new highs, I expect it to fare better tha many of the other western non dollar currencies.

Lanna, I seemed to have missd the Euro's "bounce off of $1.45", but I will eagerly await to see if it bounces off of $1.35 next week Thats just my guess and that and $15 will get you a glass of orange juice in Paris!

[Naam]

Lanna, I seemed to have missd the Euro's "bounce off of $1.45", but I will eagerly await to see if it bounces off of $1.35 next week Thats just my guess and that and $15 will get you a glass of orange juice in Paris!

i don't see 1.35 next week and my belly says 1.38 is the limit for some time to come. should i be wrong it won't matter as i am dancing on both weddings

[pete_r]

My crystal ball suggests that the current strength of the USD may also be linked to the coming presidential elections in the USA, with "people" buying USD assets in expectation of a sharp increase in the USD after election day, either because of the likely Democrat victory and/or just because of the end of the Bush era. In which case the USD may continue to strengthen until November.

Any other crystal ball reading on that?

[Lopburi99]

My crystal ball suggests that the current strength of the USD may also be linked to the coming presidential elections in the USA, with "people" buying USD assets in expectation of a sharp increase in the USD after election day, either because of the likely Democrat victory and/or just because of the end of the Bush era. In which case the USD may continue to strengthen until November.

Any other crystal ball reading on that?

I believe the latter, the end of the Bush (GW)/Cheney era is a big factor in the strengthening of the USD, as well as the fact many believe the US economy is headed for/beginning a change in direction. The weakening of the skyrocketing oil prices trend has a lot to do with it also. Regarding the upcoming election, I think a Democratic victory is in no way likely. As appealing as Obama may be to many of us, when the rubber meets the road in the voting booth I strongly believe swing voters will not allow themselves to vote on impulsivity realizing at that final moment an Obama presidency is just too chancy and to reluctantly take a safer approach with McCain and hope he can bring about at least some positive change to Washington - or at the very least, stability. For this reason, I believe an evident McCain win results in the USD continuing to strengthen more than an evident Obama win. Don't disregard the fact the recent strength of the USD "just happens" to coincide with McCain's recent resurgence in the polls. My crystal ball says if McCain wins the presidency the USD will steadily strengthen against the THB to at least 37 by next spring. My crystal ball gets really cloudy when posed the scenario of an Obama win.

Edited September 12, 2008 by Lopburi99