Exit Poll Results Show PPP Wins

[tijnebijn]

My current interpretation is that there is more than a fair chance that Abhisit can still be PM if the minor parties join his party in coalition, but alot depends on the exact votes tallies, and how the EC decides to disqualify for corruption. It makes no difference if Samak won the majority, Abhisit can still be PM quite legitimately. Does this sound correct?

I think it is fairly correct , thats why its a bit quiet in the past hour for news ....

[yorkman]

I wonder, if so, why the heck they didn't do their "homework" properly before they let election take place ?!

There was time enough.

I don't state a politic opinion in any of my comments, just wondering.

maxi

Because they said elections within a year, its now 15 months on, they are under increasing pressure from foreign governments and investors, and they have, after all proved ineffective in governing.

Notice no US troop exercises in Thailand this year? They may be military, but they are businessmen too, the military does not pay them enough to be as rich as they are

[hammered]

THe interestingthing is how PPP will go forward. Samak has described himself as PM but rumor has it thast the only way he can get a coalition is by giving the PM ship tosomeone else from another party. Interesting times. Look forward to a weak and unstable government whatever

[Old Man River]

My current interpretation is that there is more than a fair chance that Abhisit can still be PM if the minor parties join his party in coalition, but alot depends on the exact votes tallies, and how the EC decides to disqualify for corruption. It makes no difference if Samak won the majority, Abhisit can still be PM quite legitimately. Does this sound correct?

Yes, Abhisit has left the door open for this if the other parties opt for it. However, I wouldn't put it at "more than a fair chance" based on the numbers that would be needed.

[Jingthing]

My current interpretation is that there is more than a fair chance that Abhisit can still be PM if the minor parties join his party in coalition, but alot depends on the exact votes tallies, and how the EC decides to disqualify for corruption. It makes no difference if Samak won the majority, Abhisit can still be PM quite legitimately. Does this sound correct?

I think it is fairly correct , thats why its a bit quiet in the past hour for news ....

If this is so, it might be weeks before we know who is PM.

[yorkman]

My current interpretation is that there is more than a fair chance that Abhisit can still be PM if the minor parties join his party in coalition, but alot depends on the exact votes tallies, and how the EC decides to disqualify for corruption. It makes no difference if Samak won the majority, Abhisit can still be PM quite legitimately. Does this sound correct?

It does, but it will be very tight either way. If the incumbents can put enough pressure on, it could happen.

[mel2surf]

yes, seems to me Abhisit's party being the second favorite,and already vowing NOT to join with PPP

sets up a real possibility for a gov. under Abhisit.

it's DEAD silent around here now....not even a single car noise or a single voice can be heard.

Only frogs croaking

[bulmercke]

Reality is this. PPP have won and their opponents must acept the electoral victory. Similalry the PPP and their supporters must accept that court cases will be decdieed by courts and not by electoral votes. Then the country moves forward,

Yes - but these so-called court cases - if they happen at all - will be seen for what they really are - wishy-washy attempts by the election commisssion to stall the implementation of the next duly elected government.

It's going to be a mess and I personally don't think things will be allowed to progress to this situation.

[onethailand]

My current interpretation is that there is more than a fair chance that Abhisit can still be PM if the minor parties join his party in coalition, but alot depends on the exact votes tallies, and how the EC decides to disqualify for corruption. It makes no difference if Samak won the majority, Abhisit can still be PM quite legitimately. Does this sound correct?

Of course, if he manages to form a coalition - but while Banharn has gone into hiding and prepares to play kingmaker, Puea Pandin is already thought to be more likely to join up with Samak than Abhisit.

There is going to be less corruption than the last few elections, so I don't think we can expect too many disqualifications. Someone has already posted about how the NE was devoid of vote buying - this is an important point because it is the NE who traditionally has the most disqualifications.

At this stage - I think it's much more likely we'll see the Democrats in opposition - though one can always hope.

[Jingthing]

Yes I am one of the love it or leave it brigade as we have been named by you morons!

You are a bit of a hothead, aren't you? Did you favor a particular party in this race? Do you really think it is such a bad thing for people who live here, citizens or not, to care?

BTW, it really is inevitable that Abhisit will be PM someday. A young, clearly brilliant man, he has great potential to really make a major contribution to his country. However, it might be for the best that his time might not be now, because if he does manage to become PM now, he will be in such a weak position that his talents will be wasted. But politics being politics, I am sure if he can manage it now, he will of course take it.

Edited December 23, 2007 by Jingthing

[KireB]

So many farangs here with a totally superior attitude and totally disrespecting this country and its people.

You are an embarrasment to me!

what is so good about your own countries and their so called democratic processes?????

Yes I am one of the love it or leave it brigade as we have been named by you morons!

Nowhere is perfect but by Christ this country takes a lot of beating.

I love Thailand and I love and respect the Thai people.

You made the quote love it or leave it---I woould say respect it and your station here or <deleted> off fast

And you're an embarrassment to me! We all love Thailand and are therefor worried about this country.

Having access to a lot of media worldwide I truly worry about these elections . Having a historical point of reference, unlike many Thai voters today, I feel that most of us have a valid point! Nowhere is perfect, you're right at that, but to just ignore the fact that the majority of this country is making a capital mistake and claim that if you're not Thai you need not to criticize is a dumb and foolish statement! And yes you're one of the love it or leave it brigade; no surprise! Brainless you are!

[yorkman]

Someone has already posted about how the NE was devoid of vote buying

Not so, my brother in law got propositioned (ohh missis) for this this morning.

I am sure he is not alone......

[onethailand]

Someone has already posted about how the NE was devoid of vote buying

Not so, my brother in law got propositioned (ohh missis) for this this morning.

I am sure he is not alone......

Sorry, bad choice of words

The NE was not as badly plagued by vote-buying as during past elections

[bino]

Something interesting from the running live talk webpage of Tulsathit Taptim - Nation Editor:

11 pm: A source who is a senior Pua Paendin member told us that his party won't back Samak. Without Pua Paendin, the PPP can't live without Chat Thai, as forming a government with the other small parties will be too risky.

Rumours _ sorry friends, you are going to hear this word a lot but I would rather share everything with you _ have it that Banharn has laid down a tough condition: If he is to join the PPP, he has to be prime minister. This condition, according to the rumours, has been supported by Sudarat Keyuraphan and Chalerm Yoobamrung. Samak, of course, won't take it.

A lot of horsetrading is believed to be going on intensely.

Edit- Can't wait for midnight to pass- go get some beer and microwave popcorn! Going to be interesting to say the least!

Edited December 23, 2007 by bino

[yorkman]

Someone has already posted about how the NE was devoid of vote buying

Not so, my brother in law got propositioned (ohh missis) for this this morning.

I am sure he is not alone......

Sorry, bad choice of words

The NE was not as badly plagued by vote-buying as during past elections

Ahhh yes true, it's not as blatently obvious, even to a dumb farang ( I mean me ) this time around for sure

[legag]

Rumour rumour rumore .. sources everywhere even from a bus driver.

Glad election went on smoothly.

[bulmercke]

Thaksin ally wins Thai election - BBC NEWS - UPDATE -

Mr Samak said that Mr Thaksin had already congratulated him

Samak casts his vote

The party allied to Thailand's ousted PM Thaksin Shinawatra has won the general election, initial results from the Election Commission show.

Samak Sundaravej's People Power Party (PPP) won 228 seats in the 480-seat house, short of the 241 needed for an absolute majority.

The election is the first since the 2006 coup that overthrew Mr Thaksin.

Correspondents say the result is a big setback for the military, which has tried to curb Mr Thaksin's influence.

Phone call

The Election Commission said about 93% of votes had been counted and the situation would now not change greatly.

The PPP's main rival, the Democrat Party, is set to win 166 seats and Chart Thai 39.

POST-COUP TIMELINE

September 2006: Coup overthrows Thaksin Shinawatra

October 2006: Retired General Surayud Chulanont is appointed interim leader

May 2007: Court bans Mr Thaksin from politics for five years, and dissolves his party

August 2007: Voters approve a new constitution

23 December 2007: Election held

Key election figures

Thailand's turbulent year

Profile: Thaksin Shinawatra

In pictures: Thailand votes

Mr Samak, 72, claimed victory, saying: "I will be the next prime minister for sure."

He added: "I invite all the parties to join our government."

The leader of the PPP's main rival, the Democrats, Abhisit Vejjajiva, said the election had been a "close race".

"If the PPP succeeds in forming a coalition, the Democrat Party is ready to become the opposition. If the PPP fails, then the Democrat Party is ready to form its own coalition," he said.

Mr Samak said he had spoken to Mr Thaksin, who is in Hong Kong, by telephone.

"Thaksin said 'congratulations'," Mr Samak said.

The PPP leader added: "This is a victory for all Thai people who unreasonably lost their freedom on 19 September."

Thai voters give their views on who should run their country

In pictures

That was the date in 2006 when the military removed Mr Thaksin and his Thai Rak Thai party from power.

Mr Thaksin, who is now banned from Thai politics, has since lived in self-imposed exile abroad, mainly in Britain.

However his allies have promised he would return and that the five-year political ban on him would be overturned.

Mr Samak said on Sunday: "Thaksin said he will come back after the government is formed."

If he does return to Thailand, Mr Thaksin will have to answer a number of corruption charges levelled against him in the courts.

Military key

Election monitors said that voting had mostly proceeded smoothly and been well-organised, despite complaints of vote-buying and other irregularities.

The PPP has concentrated mainly on the poor, rural vote that buoyed Mr Thaksin, while the Democrats have relied on the middle-class urban vote.

The BBC's Jonathan Head says the vote is a dramatic repudiation of the coup, but that it is hard to predict how the military will react to the result.

He says Mr Thaksin still has many enemies in the business and bureaucratic elite and in Bangkok's middle class.

And if there is a coalition, our correspondent says, the resulting multi-party government could well prove weak and short-lived.

[Dario]

Abhisit certainly has not declared victory - he announced that the Democrats are humbled to have won the most seats in their history, but now Samak will try to form a coalition and Abhisit said that he would not hold discussions with the other parties as he felt this was not appropriate - he said that the other party leaders should make their own decision as to what is best for the people of Thailand, but the Democrats have already rejected Samak's invitation to join the government.

He also said that the Democrats will give 100% back to the people, no matter what role they play - "not one vote shall be wasted" was essentially what he said in Thai.

He then answered the English-language reporters in fluent, polite English, giving exactly the same answers as he did in Thai.

Now, it's just wait and see - the final tally hopefully will be available by midnight and then things should be much clearer. But if the PPP manage to recruit either Chart Thai or Puea Pandin to join them, it will most likely be enough to make Samak the next prime minister, even after all red cards and yellow cards are issued, unless things suddenly swing towards the Democrats over the next couple of hours, and this is highly unlikely.

onethailand,

rest assured that Chart Thai will n o t side with PPP, take my word for it.

[onethailand]

Something interesting from the running live talk webpage of Tulsathit Taptim - Nation Editor:

11 pm: A source who is a senior Pua Paendin member told us that his party won't back Samak. Without Pua Paendin, the PPP can't live without Chat Thai, as forming a government with the other small parties will be too risky.

Rumours _ sorry friends, you are going to hear this word a lot but I would rather share everything with you _ have it that Banharn has laid down a tough condition: If he is to join the PPP, he has to be prime minister. This condition, according to the rumours, has been supported by Sudarat Keyuraphan and Chalerm Yoobamrung. Samak, of course, won't take it.

A lot of horsetrading is believed to be going on intensely.

Edit- Can't wait for midnight to pass- go get some beer and microwave popcorn! Going to be interesting to say the least!

Thanks for that, I hadn't refreshed lately

This is exactly right - the PPP will be weak without at least Chart Thai or Puea Pandin in the coalition. However, Puea Pandin's leaders (to the best of my knowledge) have not ever worked together well with the Democrats, even when forced to be on the same side. The only way the Democrats will be able to form a decent coalition is to gain the support of every other party who won seats - a difficult task no matter how you look at it. And even then it will be relatively weak and a near certainty that Puea Pandin will become the difficult faction.

[DirkGently]

Let me get this straight in my head. Thaksin and his henchmen ran the country like their own business and ladeled off the cream. They became hated by the country for selling a telecommunications company to the Singaporians which lead to paranoid panic amongst the populace. Aformentioned people were ousted and ran for the hills with sacks of cash. A trip to the courts led to little more than musical chairs amongst the parties. A little over a year later Samak, whose every word smaks of arrogence, reaches the top with, along with a few vague policies, and vows to bring Thaksin back.

It seems the anti-vote buying people are as effective as the anti-elephants in Bangkok police.

Good to know that Chalerm and his non-cop killing children are close by.

[hammered]

Something interesting from the running live talk webpage of Tulsathit Taptim - Nation Editor:

11 pm: A source who is a senior Pua Paendin member told us that his party won't back Samak. Without Pua Paendin, the PPP can't live without Chat Thai, as forming a government with the other small parties will be too risky.

Rumours _ sorry friends, you are going to hear this word a lot but I would rather share everything with you _ have it that Banharn has laid down a tough condition: If he is to join the PPP, he has to be prime minister. This condition, according to the rumours, has been supported by Sudarat Keyuraphan and Chalerm Yoobamrung. Samak, of course, won't take it.

A lot of horsetrading is believed to be going on intensely.

Edit- Can't wait for midnight to pass- go get some beer and microwave popcorn! Going to be interesting to say the least!

Thanks for that, I hadn't refreshed lately

This is exactly right - the PPP will be weak without at least Chart Thai or Puea Pandin in the coalition. However, Puea Pandin's leaders (to the best of my knowledge) have not ever worked together well with the Democrats, even when forced to be on the same side. The only way the Democrats will be able to form a decent coalition is to gain the support of every other party who won seats - a difficult task no matter how you look at it. And even then it will be relatively weak and a near certainty that Puea Pandin will become the difficult faction.

When puea Pandin say they wont back Samak it doesnt mean they wont back PPP. They may just want a different PM and who can blame them

[blaze]

Reality is this. PPP have won and their opponents must acept the electoral victory. Similalry the PPP and their supporters must accept that court cases will be decdieed by courts and not by electoral votes. Then the country moves forward,

Yes - but these so-called court cases - if they happen at all - will be seen for what they really are - wishy-washy attempts by the election commisssion to stall the implementation of the next duly elected government.

It's going to be a mess and I personally don't think things will be allowed to progress to this situation.

The senate will be sworn in shortly after the new government takes effect. It's members will consist entirely of NLA people. (Until Senate elections in March). It will have the power to thwart legislation (correct me if I'm wrong) to initiate a non-confidence motion- and to initiate impeachment.

Perhaps the battle in the short term- the one to watch- will be the one between the Legislature and the Senate.

[onethailand]

onethailand,

rest assured that Chart Thai will n o t side with PPP, take my word for it.

Probably (hopefully) not. But that isn't enough on its own.

Let me get this straight in my head. Thaksin and his henchmen ran the country like their own business and ladeled off the cream. They became hated by the country for selling a telecommunications company to the Singaporians which lead to paranoid panic amongst the populace.

Not exactly. They became hated by Bangkokians. And there was hardly panic.

The 30-baht health scheme was much more meaningful to the rural population than Thaksin selling off his own company, even to foreigners. As for the issue of evading tax... well... the 30-baht health scheme was much more meaningful to the rural population...

When puea Pandin say they won't back Samak it doesnt mean they wont back PPP. They may just want a different PM and who can blame them wink.gif

Precisely.

Edited December 23, 2007 by onethailand

[yorkman]

Let me get this straight in my head. Thaksin and his henchmen ran the country like their own business and ladeled off the cream. They became hated by the country for selling a telecommunications company to the Singaporians which lead to paranoid panic amongst the populace. Aformentioned people were ousted and ran for the hills with sacks of cash. A trip to the courts led to little more than musical chairs amongst the parties. A little over a year later Samak, whose every word smaks of arrogence, reaches the top with, along with a few vague policies, and vows to bring Thaksin back.

Correct..

[dog412]

as long as the wealthy and powerful refuse to "police" themselves, to permit legal prosecution of their cronies, it really makes little difference who is in "charge". too much power in too limited a number of "families" results in some type of pragmatic "share the spoils" culture, no matter what the political maneuvering needed to gain their hoped result.

[DirkGently]

There was a panic of sorts. my wife repeated that the media was full of stories about Singapore being able to evesdrop on Thailand and their military. I recall a similar comment coming from some jumped up military type.

[pumpuiman]

Someone has already posted about how the NE was devoid of vote buying

Not so, my brother in law got propositioned (ohh missis) for this this morning.

I am sure he is not alone......

But by which party was he propositioned?

Earlier posts had suggested that vote buying had been attempted by minor parties, but not the PPP.

Can you confirm that the PPP has done so with the brother in law?

And could red cards be issued to democrats for busing entire factories to the "early" voting? For military being ordered to vote democrat? (as has been suggested in reports)

Corruption is rampant by all parties it seems....and in particular by the "savior" junta (no one noticed their bank balances?)

The Thai people have voted for the party that they had twice elected by landslide....it comes as no surprise to me.

The military saviors have failed. Any bullshit from them or the militarily appointed election commission now would mean violence and blood in the streets in my opinion.

I hope they have the common sense to back off, and let the people have what they have soundly and overwhelmingly decided they want, for the good of the country......

....no matter how bad it may seem to be.

Edited December 23, 2007 by pumpuiman

[hammered]

Reality is this. PPP have won and their opponents must acept the electoral victory. Similalry the PPP and their supporters must accept that court cases will be decdieed by courts and not by electoral votes. Then the country moves forward,

Yes - but these so-called court cases - if they happen at all - will be seen for what they really are - wishy-washy attempts by the election commisssion to stall the implementation of the next duly elected government.

It's going to be a mess and I personally don't think things will be allowed to progress to this situation.

I wasnt referring toany electoral shnenaigansd cases but the onjes brought against Thakisn and his cabinet. They nedd to go through the judicial procedutre whichever way you come at it from.

[hammered]

Someone has already posted about how the NE was devoid of vote buying

Not so, my brother in law got propositioned (ohh missis) for this this morning.

I am sure he is not alone......

But by which party was he propositioned?

Earlier posts had suggested that vote buying had been attempted by minor parties, but not the PPP.

Can you confirm that the PPP has done so with the brother in law?

And could red cards be issued to democrats for busing entire factories to the "early" voting? For military being ordered to vote democrat? (as has been suggested in reports)

Corruption is rampant by all parties it seems....and in particular by the "savior" junta (no one noticed their bank balances?)

The Thai people have voted for the party that they had twice elected by landslide....it comes as no surprise to me.

The military saviors have failed. Any bullshit from them or the militarily appointed election commission now would mean violence and blood in the streets in my opinion.

I hope they have the common sense to back off, and let the people have what they have soundly and overwhelmingly decided they want, for the good of the country......

....no matter how bad it may seem to be.

Wouldnt disagre with what u say too much except that up north the military semed to be advised to vote Chart Thai and not democrat and in the Isaan OPuea Pandin and not democrat. Truth be known the military dont like the Dems much.

Peace

[onethailand]

There was a panic of sorts. my wife repeated that the media was full of stories about Singapore being able to evesdrop on Thailand and their military. I recall a similar comment coming from some jumped up military type.

As if Singapore was going to invade Thailand? Somehow I have a little difficulty accepting that...

The "panic" was actually on the stock market. Didn't affect most rural citizens. The demonstrations were all in Bangkok and mostly attended by Bangkok residents. Most of the rural citizens who came here actually came to give Thaksin support.