Exit Poll Results Show PPP Wins

[lukamar]

That internal security law has definitely got to go if the country is ever to progress democracy free of military interference.

X2 and Happy Holidays Knun P..

[John K]

Well just a quick reminder, on Thaksin’s to do list was to rewrite the old constitution. Basically this constitution has teeth and the old one did not. Thaksin wanted to weaken the old constitution further and I am sure some of the inside posters can fill us in or remind us what the particulars were on that. This constitution is fine as it does encourage more money getting to the people by putting the politicians under the microscope. If I recall that is what Isaan really wants. This constitution has not had a chance to even work yet in reality and the PPP are clearly opposed to it. Don’t forget their attempt to buy votes back in August. Outside of Isaan the constitution was popularly elected across the country. I can only imagine what lies the PPP told the people of Isaan to get them to vote it down.

[hammered]

Hey guys there really is little point now in rehashing the old fights. It is time to move forward. No doubt mistakes will be made a long the way but so will progress. The country cant stay divided for ever so someone has to take the initiative and hold a hand out to somone. Hopefully calmer heads will prevail in the government and things can move forward. The alternative is abruising fight between powerful elements in Thai society that will leave nobody better off. imho

[dog412]

you would certainly hope that a newly elected government, no matter who it is, would be able to invalidate any and all of any "amendments" enacted to a constitution through a military takeover of the government. if it can be changed without a democratic consensus, then it sure as hel_l should be able to be reverted back without consent of those manipulated it under a military coup.

[hammered]

While it is true that PPP and the Democrats got nearly the same amount of votes it should be remembered that this election was strongly tilted in favor of the Democrats because of restrictions put on the TRT and its members which served as a drag on PPP's development. If the PPP forms a gov't and it brings Toxin back it will probably only get more popular at least in the short term.....of course its long term popularity depends on how long it can keep the bulk of voters feeling like they are involved. If the coup had not happened perhaps TRT's glowing image would have worn off by now and people would be moving on to the next political thing....who knows?....it seems that perhaps the coup happened just at the time when Toxins's policies could not be maintained any longer which sort of bailed him out of what might have been imminent failure and effectively turned Toxin into an heroic figure tilting against the anti-democratic military junta. This might have added to Toxin's long term support rather than diminishing it which was the junta's intent.

Personally I tend to agree with this analysis to the degree I think that after a year of the totally inept Surayud govermnet and obviously faction ridden coup masters not to mention too many weak and often contradictory charges brought against Thaksin and his family that the coup mesiters did increase the popularity of Thaksin and his supporters again. I wouldnt say that Thaksins policies had previously become unmaintainable but that his star had started to wane slightly. Funny how cause and effect works!

[HobbsTheFerociousTiger]

Anyway, another thing I hope for is that they finally get the new airport fixed. The military I think actively stalled that so they could have their personal little cash-calf back, Don Muang.. Time to make progress and move forward.

[John K]

While it is true that PPP and the Democrats got nearly the same amount of votes it should be remembered that this election was strongly tilted in favor of the Democrats because of restrictions put on the TRT and its members which served as a drag on PPP's development. If the PPP forms a gov't and it brings Toxin back it will probably only get more popular at least in the short term.....of course its long term popularity depends on how long it can keep the bulk of voters feeling like they are involved. If the coup had not happened perhaps TRT's glowing image would have worn off by now and people would be moving on to the next political thing....who knows?....it seems that perhaps the coup happened just at the time when Toxins's policies could not be maintained any longer which sort of bailed him out of what might have been imminent failure and effectively turned Toxin into an heroic figure tilting against the anti-democratic military junta. This might have added to Toxin's long term support rather than diminishing it which was the junta's intent.

Personally I tend to agree with this analysis to the degree I think that after a year of the totally inept Surayud govermnet and obviously faction ridden coup masters not to mention too many weak and often contradictory charges brought against Thaksin and his family that the coup mesiters did increase the popularity of Thaksin and his supporters again. I wouldnt say that Thaksins policies had previously become unmaintainable but that his star had started to wane slightly. Funny how cause and effect works!

Good point hammered, it reflects what I said in the past. However the emphasis in the old government being inept I think is a bit of a distortion. I think it more reflects Thai tendencies not to think things out to conclusion. Thaksin clearly did think things out and that is what shows. However his underlying greed and desire for total power is what launched the coup. Total power is no place to be found in the description of democracy. As soon as that desire for total power shows again is when the tanks will roll again.

[dog412]

my best holidays wishes to Thailand. pls. solve this problem by charging Dr. Thaksin with the evidence against him, and fight it out in a court of law. you do have a court of law don't you? pls. forgive my naivety.

[Ricardo]

my best holidays wishes to Thailand. pls. solve this problem by charging Dr. Thaksin with the evidence against him, and fight it out in a court of law. you do have a court of law don't you? pls. forgive my naivety.

Not so easy when Dr Thaksin fails to show up in court, to face his trials, and prefers to become a fugitive from justice instead.

[dog412]

my best holidays wishes to Thailand. pls. solve this problem by charging Dr. Thaksin with the evidence against him, and fight it out in a court of law. you do have a court of law don't you? pls. forgive my naivety.

Not so easy when Dr Thaksin fails to show up in court, to face his trials, and prefers to become a fugitive from justice instead.

i really am not too up on all this, so pls. bear with me. are you stating that Thailand issued a international arrest warrant for the Dr.? i actually thought that he was barred from entering the country.

[blaze]

Thaksin is not going back into politics again.

What, you mean he ever left?

Well if you missed it somewhere between today and yesterday the PPP announce they wanted more than a simple majority, they want enough to root up the new constitution. I don't need to tell anyone who has been paying attention what that means.

I would totally support that of course!!!

The constitution that was torn up was referred to as the 'People's Constitution'. There's an excellent wikipedia article on it. This was replaced by something VERY doctored by the military, with the specific aim to cement military influence in Thai politics.

The current constitution is a piece of trash, and changing it is near impossible because that would require a 2/3 majority in the house and ALSO IN THE SENATE, and..... under this constition, half the senate is APPOINTED, not elected.. SO.. . . . That effectively means we might as well stop discussing amending the constitution because it's not going to happen. (Not without a serious fight anyway).

Of course it MUST happen sooner or later if Thailand is to make democratic progress... For now though, I think all parties have said that other things are more urgent than amending the constitution and I think they're right.

And besides, the constitution is a law. Laws in Thailand: Always a workaround.

If we believe- naively in my opinion- that the coup was about Thaksin (and not that he merely provided the rationale) then it was at best a farce. An expensive, demoralizing humiliating farce.

But if we believe that the army and certain elements of the aristocracy have been increasingly frustrated with their lack of 'input' into political affairs and that this coup was actually aimed at providing the archconservative military and its supporters with a voice in politics disproportinate to their numbers- then the coup was a brilliant stroke of genius.

By placing their members in key positions in the state enterprises- and with their charter- they and their brothers in the beaurocracy- will be able to exert more control over the senate than they have had in a long time. Constitutionally- every law that is passed will have to meet with the approval of the army- through its representatives and proxies in the senate. At any time non-confidence votes can be launched- not from the Senate- and impeachment proceedings. And this is what the analysts refer to when they talk about a 'managed' democracy.

The hope should be that the current military leadership will be removed and replaced with generals who actually believes that the army should NOT participate in politics- Let alone state enterprises- But even that will, I expect, not be easy.

There is just too much profits involved- never mind political positioning.

Edited December 25, 2007 by blaze

[sriracha john]

my best holidays wishes to Thailand. pls. solve this problem by charging Dr. Thaksin with the evidence against him, and fight it out in a court of law. you do have a court of law don't you? pls. forgive my naivety.

Not so easy when Dr Thaksin fails to show up in court, to face his trials, and prefers to become a fugitive from justice instead.

i really am not too up on all this, so pls. bear with me. are you stating that Thailand issued a international arrest warrant for the Dr.? i actually thought that he was barred from entering the country.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=137480

Arrest Warrants Issued For Former PM Thaksin And His Wife

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...=137657&hl=

Thaksin May Face More Arrest Warrants

[John K]

my best holidays wishes to Thailand. pls. solve this problem by charging Dr. Thaksin with the evidence against him, and fight it out in a court of law. you do have a court of law don't you? pls. forgive my naivety.

One thing so far that has not changes is Thai politicians die of old age before they get around to serving time. Look at Samaksin, 72 and has had his hands in every bit of dirty work you can imagine. Just convicted a few months ago and his next job is Puppet PM.

[blaze]

Thaksin is not going back into politics again.

What, you mean he ever left?

Well if you missed it somewhere between today and yesterday the PPP announce they wanted more than a simple majority, they want enough to root up the new constitution. I don't need to tell anyone who has been paying attention what that means.

I would totally support that of course!!!

The constitution that was torn up was referred to as the 'People's Constitution'. There's an excellent wikipedia article on it. This was replaced by something VERY doctored by the military, with the specific aim to cement military influence in Thai politics.

The current constitution is a piece of trash, and changing it is near impossible because that would require a 2/3 majority in the house and ALSO IN THE SENATE, and..... under this constition, half the senate is APPOINTED, not elected.. SO.. . . . That effectively means we might as well stop discussing amending the constitution because it's not going to happen. (Not without a serious fight anyway).

Of course it MUST happen sooner or later if Thailand is to make democratic progress... For now though, I think all parties have said that other things are more urgent than amending the constitution and I think they're right.

And besides, the constitution is a law. Laws in Thailand: Always a workaround.

If we believe- naively in my opinion- that the coup was about Thaksin (and not that he merely provided the rationale) then it was at best a farce. An expensive, demoralizing humiliating farce.

But if we believe that the army and certain elements of the aristocracy have been increasingly frustrated with their lack of 'input' into political affairs and that this coup was actually aimed at providing the archconservative military and its supporters with a voice in politics disproportinate to their numbers- then the coup was a brilliant stroke of genius.

By placing their members in key positions in the state enterprises- and with their charter- they and their brothers in the beaurocracy- will be able to exert more control over the senate than they have had in a long time. Constitutionally- every law that is passed will have to meet with the approval of the army- through its representatives and proxies in the senate. And this will include any ammedments to.... the senate. Brilliant.

The senate can also launch a non-confidence vote and initiate impeachment proceedings. This is what the analysts refer to when they talk about a 'managed' democracy. Those who see the beaurocracy- including the judicial establishmentas being immune from political influence- are, I think, asking too much. In fact, the inclusion of judges in the populating of the senate was opposed by several top judges for that very reason.

The hope should be that the current military leadership will be removed and replaced with generals who actually believes that the army should NOT participate in politics- Let alone state enterprises- But even that will, I expect, not be easy.

There is just too much profits involved- never mind political positioning.

[A_Traveller]

Thaksin is not going back into politics again.

my best holidays wishes to Thailand. pls. solve this problem by charging Dr. Thaksin with the evidence against him, and fight it out in a court of law. you do have a court of law don't you? pls. forgive my naivety.

One thing so far that has not changes is Thai politicians die of old age before they get around to serving time. Look at Samaksin, 72 and has had his hands in every bit of dirty work you can imagine. Just convicted a few months ago and his next job is Puppet PM.

And the string master...

(BangkokPost.com) – Despite claims that he had “washed his hands clean of politics”, ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has done an abrupt U-turn and confirmed his political ambition through a press conference held in Hong Kong.

“I want to make a political comeback,” he said. “I want to live my life as a normal Thai citizen in my own country.”

The former leader of the defunct Thai Rak Thai party for whom the People Power party (PPP) is proxy to, stated his intention to return to Thailand no later than April to fight all charges of corruption leveled against him by the Assets Scrutiny Committee (ASC).

Regards Edited December 25, 2007 by A_Traveller

[bino]

i actually thought that he was barred from entering the country.

On the contrary... his exile is "self imposed". He can come back any time he wants. Unfortunately for him, he would be (have been?) taken into custody immediately by the junta.

[dog412]

my best holidays wishes to Thailand. pls. solve this problem by charging Dr. Thaksin with the evidence against him, and fight it out in a court of law. you do have a court of law don't you? pls. forgive my naivety.

Not so easy when Dr Thaksin fails to show up in court, to face his trials, and prefers to become a fugitive from justice instead.

i really am not too up on all this, so pls. bear with me. are you stating that Thailand issued a international arrest warrant for the Dr.? i actually thought that he was barred from entering the country.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=137480

Arrest Warrants Issued For Former PM Thaksin And His Wife

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...=137657&hl=

Thaksin May Face More Arrest Warrants

and exactly who is hampering his arrest and extradition back to Thailand? it's not like no one knows where he is. my god, a fugitive is not what it used to be, i guess.

[John K]

i actually thought that he was barred from entering the country.

On the contrary... his exile is "self imposed". He can come back any time he wants. Unfortunately for him, he would be (have been?) taken into custody immediately by the junta.

Failure to appear would get you exactly the same treatment in the USA.

[John K]

my best holidays wishes to Thailand. pls. solve this problem by charging Dr. Thaksin with the evidence against him, and fight it out in a court of law. you do have a court of law don't you? pls. forgive my naivety.

Not so easy when Dr Thaksin fails to show up in court, to face his trials, and prefers to become a fugitive from justice instead.

i really am not too up on all this, so pls. bear with me. are you stating that Thailand issued a international arrest warrant for the Dr.? i actually thought that he was barred from entering the country.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=137480

Arrest Warrants Issued For Former PM Thaksin And His Wife

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...=137657&hl=

Thaksin May Face More Arrest Warrants

and exactly who is hampering his arrest and extradition back to Thailand? it's not like no one knows where he is. my god, a fugitive is not what it used to be, i guess.

Weak and very outdated extradition laws for starters between the UK and Siam.

[007]

Oops, didn't they say on TV (BBC, Thai TV?) that the PPP has missed a majority?

So, how many seats are there in the Parliament. And why shouldn't the other parties form a coalition, despite the PPP having most of the votes? Who says that the party with the most votes has to head a government?

Edited December 25, 2007 by 7

[HobbsTheFerociousTiger]

Of course.. And I don't believe anyone here *TRULY* believes that an arrest warrant issued by a military junta carries any legitimacy at all.. I mean there's obviously people here who like to argue and polarize, but the British government for one laughed the generals all the way back to Bangers.

But anyway, he's coming back so I bet everyone is real happy, right? right!

(Oh, and what a brilliant post by Blaze.. one day I hope to be able to get things out of my keyboard with such precision and clarity. I actually could not have said it better myself.)

Edited December 25, 2007 by HobbsTheFerociousTiger

[Johpa]

i dare say that one of the MAIN reasons why the political parties dont give a rats ass is because they dont have to. they KNOW they can just buy the votes or spout off some useless propaganda and the unsophisticated will believe.

being able to read is one thing; being able to scrutinize and read between the lines is an entirely different skill-set. america has the same problem. the uneducated there, too, are unable to see through the charade that is politics. im still in shock that people actually voted for bush in '04. just shocking, that was.

in the end, your main point may in fact render all this debate useless. for neither party will do anything to help the less fortunate unless its existence depends upon it. and that day is long in coming in thailand.

All Thai politcal parties have been buying votes for decades. I still remember an election back in the early 1980s where the local bank ran out of 10 baat notes. Thaksin not only bought votes but threw the poor some bones as well, ranging from modest health care to village loans (not always a well managed program) to, in one village I know well, bought all the children bicycles so that they would not have to walk in the rain along dirt roads to schools, a brilliant marketing scheme to win the hearts and minds of an entire moo baan for very little money. Thaksin understood that it does not take that much to win those hearts and minds, but it takes more than just vote buying.

Education must have nothing to do with this as many well educated Americans voted for Bush and well educated Thais still vote for the leaders foisted upon them. Clearly the skill set you and I are looking for amongst the electorates world wide is not a function of classic education nor a function of literacy.

If the opposition parties were to take note that they too should incorporate some "populist" policies then they might give out more to the poor. But I agree that as long as the new middle class of Thailand continues to identify with the elite then nothing will change. But on the next economic downturn those same people might begin to realize that they might be better off aligning with the poor instead of chasing their pipe dream of joining the economic elite. That is what happened in Venezuela in 1998 that enabled Hugo Chavez to win the presidential election. With the inevitable vacuum occurring in the not too distant future, I am not so sure that such a day is so long in coming, perhaps not around the corner, but hopefully not too long in coming.

[John K]

Oops, didn't they say on TV (BBC, Thai TV?) that the PPP has missed a majority?

So, how many seats are there in the Parliament. And why shouldn't the other parties form a coalition, despite the PPP having most of the votes? Who says that the party with the most votes has to head a government?

MONEY

[007]

But anyway, he's coming back so I bet everyone is real happy, right? right!

Didn't this guy (Toxin??) say just before the election that he wouldn't return to Thailand if his party the PPP doesn't get at least 50% of the votes? Now it seems he has changed his plans again, what a liar!!

I would have bet a thousand bucks BEFORE the election that he's going to come back after the election, no matter what percentage of votes for the PPP... And he'll make sure to get all his confiscated funds and paid taxes back too, never mind the constitution, laws, or King...

Edited December 25, 2007 by 7

[hammered]

Thaksin is not going back into politics again.

What, you mean he ever left?

Well if you missed it somewhere between today and yesterday the PPP announce they wanted more than a simple majority, they want enough to root up the new constitution. I don't need to tell anyone who has been paying attention what that means.

I would totally support that of course!!!

The constitution that was torn up was referred to as the 'People's Constitution'. There's an excellent wikipedia article on it. This was replaced by something VERY doctored by the military, with the specific aim to cement military influence in Thai politics.

The current constitution is a piece of trash, and changing it is near impossible because that would require a 2/3 majority in the house and ALSO IN THE SENATE, and..... under this constition, half the senate is APPOINTED, not elected.. SO.. . . . That effectively means we might as well stop discussing amending the constitution because it's not going to happen. (Not without a serious fight anyway).

Of course it MUST happen sooner or later if Thailand is to make democratic progress... For now though, I think all parties have said that other things are more urgent than amending the constitution and I think they're right.

And besides, the constitution is a law. Laws in Thailand: Always a workaround.

If we believe- naively in my opinion- that the coup was about Thaksin (and not that he merely provided the rationale) then it was at best a farce. An expensive, demoralizing humiliating farce.

But if we believe that the army and certain elements of the aristocracy have been increasingly frustrated with their lack of 'input' into political affairs and that this coup was actually aimed at providing the archconservative military and its supporters with a voice in politics disproportinate to their numbers- then the coup was a brilliant stroke of genius.

By placing their members in key positions in the state enterprises- and with their charter- they and their brothers in the beaurocracy- will be able to exert more control over the senate than they have had in a long time. Constitutionally- every law that is passed will have to meet with the approval of the army- through its representatives and proxies in the senate. At any time non-confidence votes can be launched- not from the Senate- and impeachment proceedings. And this is what the analysts refer to when they talk about a 'managed' democracy.

The hope should be that the current military leadership will be removed and replaced with generals who actually believes that the army should NOT participate in politics- Let alone state enterprises- But even that will, I expect, not be easy.

There is just too much profits involved- never mind political positioning.

The point about the senate is particularly pertinent. the NLA will act as the senate when the next government is formed. That will make it extremely difficult to get any controversial legislation passed and I would say unlikey any constitutional change will happen. Even after the half elected seate is seated only changes with broad consensus are likely. Any controversial or big changes or laws proposed will inevitably set off a potentially explosive clash. Some argue that it is better to have this sooner than later although reality is that at some point the clash is inevitable. This is imho of course where we are today. Personally I would prefer to see calmer heads prevail but that really is up to the Thai politcal elite and other players.

[dog412]

ok. let me just say that i seriously doubt that Thailand attempted in any way to have the Dr. extradited back to Thailand, in any way, shape or form. and i seriously doubt most people would consider him a "fugitive" from the Thai justice department. i only believe the man should face the music in Thailand. unfortunately, justice doesn't rate very high on the scale here, so what can one say.

[A_Traveller]

On the prosecution point, everyone stalled because they were concerned that Thaksin would one day return, and he is famous for bearing grudges with enthusiasm over years, for perceived disloyalty.

Regards

[dog412]

On the prosecution point, everyone stalled because they were concerned that Thaksin would one day return, and he is famous for bearing grudges with enthusiasm over years, for perceived disloyalty.

Regards

agree with your sentiments. since the judicial system has no "teeth" when it comes to those of power, the Thai " ain't gettin nowwhere".

[sriracha john]

my best holidays wishes to Thailand. pls. solve this problem by charging Dr. Thaksin with the evidence against him, and fight it out in a court of law. you do have a court of law don't you? pls. forgive my naivety.

Not so easy when Dr Thaksin fails to show up in court, to face his trials, and prefers to become a fugitive from justice instead.

i really am not too up on all this, so pls. bear with me. are you stating that Thailand issued a international arrest warrant for the Dr.? i actually thought that he was barred from entering the country.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=137480

Arrest Warrants Issued For Former PM Thaksin And His Wife

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...=137657&hl=

Thaksin May Face More Arrest Warrants

and exactly who is hampering his arrest and extradition back to Thailand? it's not like no one knows where he is. my god, a fugitive is not what it used to be, i guess.

7 minutes?? That was extremely fast reading for 2 rather lengthy threads....

but anyway, it's Thaksin who is hampering his arrest. Extraditions world-wide are often bogged down for years with litigations... his case is not so different from many others.

Edited December 25, 2007 by sriracha john

[dog412]

my best holidays wishes to Thailand. pls. solve this problem by charging Dr. Thaksin with the evidence against him, and fight it out in a court of law. you do have a court of law don't you? pls. forgive my naivety.

Not so easy when Dr Thaksin fails to show up in court, to face his trials, and prefers to become a fugitive from justice instead.

i really am not too up on all this, so pls. bear with me. are you stating that Thailand issued a international arrest warrant for the Dr.? i actually thought that he was barred from entering the country.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=137480

Arrest Warrants Issued For Former PM Thaksin And His Wife

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...=137657&hl=

Thaksin May Face More Arrest Warrants

and exactly who is hampering his arrest and extradition back to Thailand? it's not like no one knows where he is. my god, a fugitive is not what it used to be, i guess.

7 minutes?? That was extremely fast reading for 2 rather lengthy threads....

but anyway, it's Thaksin who is hampering his arrest. Extraditions world-wide are often bogged down for years with litigations... his case is not so different from many others.

if Thaksin is "hampering" his own arrest ... i give up.