Exit Poll Results Show PPP Wins

[hammered]

From the Post a (imho) fair comment on Samakl becoming and staying PM. I guess the Narong Wongwan moment will not happen.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/tops...s.php?id=125302

Mind there is an interesting final sentence:

But Thai politics is more than just numbers; otherwise Thai Rak Thai, which enjoyed overwhelming support in parliament, would be here today, still in one piece.

[Jai Dee]

Public Warning:

Additional bickering and personal comments have been deleted from this thread.

Should members continue, I warn you now... suspension from the forum and/or disablement of posting rights will be your reward.

[Jai Dee]

PM does not want to comment on new successor yet

Prime Minister and Minister of Interior General Surayud Chulanont commented to members of the press that during the administration of his interim government which followed the September 19th reform, he had tried to foster communication amongst all parties. General Surayud said that he still felt many groups had their own biases against one another and so communication has not been completely successful. He still believes though that if different groups in the nation can build understanding, society could benefit.

General Surayud also said that he had no qualms against the People’s Power Party being able to establish a coalition government as they received the most votes and were the choice of the people. The Prime Minister declined to comment though, on the potential for People’s Power Party leader Samak Sundaravej to succeed him as premier. The Prime Minister said it was still a matter of the future as the parliament still must meet on the matter.

General Surayud said he has no personal interest in involving himself with the selection of the new Prime Minister, but once the premiere is elected he would like to be able to have a meeting with the official.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 21 January 2008

[ando]

It is my belief that the courts would be under some pressure from within and probably by some outside forces NOT to disable the coalition through party dissolutions to such an extent that it creates political chaos again. "Insufficient Evidence to gain a conviction" always seems to be a convenient out for the courts in these difficult cases. Could the Democrats still take power with the minor parties excluded by dissolution? Such an act would almost certainly lead to fresh elections in which the PPP would almost certainly consolidate its leading position.

And now is certainly not an opportune time for another coup as they have no popularly perceived windmills to tilt at this time. Another coup now would be very widely seen as political interference in the democratic process without any justification. Such an action coming hot on the heels of the past 2 years of political turmoil and pain would surely benefit only the PPP.

So my guess is that the courts will NOT want to be the ones forcing another political crisis just yet.

P.S. The Thai version of "Blind Justice" always keeps one eye open.

Edited January 21, 2008 by ando

[Jai Dee]

By-Elections in 7 provinces see thin voter turn out

Provincial Election Commission’s have reported that their by-elections took place without any major incidents but voter turn outs were low.

Provincial Election Commission officials in Udorn Thani province stated that voting throughout the day was relatively tranquil with official estimates stating that less than 50 percent of eligible voters turned up. Officials in the province also confirmed reports that ill-wishers were passing out flyers attacking candidates but have not yet been able to apprehend the wrong-doers.

Sakol Nakorn province election officials also reported a low number of voters with only 317,747 citizens turning out in the provinces' first constituency. Voting in the province was also over looked by a representative of the People’s Power Party, which was yellow carded from the province after the general election.

Phrae province reported a higher turn out and more activities during the later hours of the by-election and the province has asked the central Election Commission to receive its unofficial count for validation so that the province will have parliamentary representation at the first parliament meeting.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 21 January 2008

[Jai Dee]

458 MPs report for duty at EC

The Election Commission (EC) has announced that a tally of members of parliament who have reported for duty since the 4th of January until the 20th yielded 458 MPs. The EC has allowed for 460 candidates to be approved for temporary duty to allow for the parliament to be able to hold its first meeting according to schedule.

The first parliament meeting scheduled for today will have 217 MPs from the People’s Power Party, 163 from the Democrat Party, 34 Chart Thai MPs, 21 from the Pua Paendin Party, 9 from Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana, 9 from Matchima Thipathai and 5 from Pracharat. Two additional representatives are expected to report for duty in time for the meeting as well.

The members of parliament will take part in a group photo and then take part in an opening ceremony.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 21 January 2008

[hammered]

COALITION CRISIS

Trouble looms for govt

Dissolution of key parties still likely; Chart Thai hit by hail of hate calls

Despite Saturday's declaration of a six-party coalition, political uncertainties continued yesterday following a reports that Chart Thai and the Matchima Thipataya parties face possible dissolution for alleged electoral offences by key members.

The Election Commission's panel tasked with investigating the parties' poll violation cases have reportedly found enough grounds to proceed against the two allies of the People Power Party, which on Saturday declared its formation of a coalition government.

The cases involved the parties' executives who are accused of committing serious electoral offences and who were given red cards, EC sources said yesterday.

If the EC approves the panel's findings, it will have to seek a Constitution Court decision on the fate of the parties.

"Whatever befalls the two parties will affect the PPP whose party deputy leader Yongyuth Tiyapairat is also under investigation for electoral fraud and faces being handed a red card,'' one source said.

Chart Thai deputy-secretary general Monthien Songpracha and Matchima Thipataya Party deputy leader Sunthorn Vilawan were given red cards. Under new electoral rules, a political party is accountable for electoral offences involving party executives.

Article 103 of the Constitution organic law on the election of MPs and senators stipulates that if there is incriminating evidence that party leaders or executives committed wilful neglect or did not stop electoral fraud, it will be regarded that the party was seeking power through undemocratic mean and had violated the Constitution.

In such a situation, the EC can ask the Constitution Court to disband a party and bans its leaders from politics for five years.

Under the law, party members of the dissolved parties must find new parties within 60 days.

The source said the panel will soon wrap up its report on the possibility of dissolving the parties.

"It will take at least three months to see if the two parties will be dissolved,'' the EC source said.

Chart Thai Party leader Banharn Silapa-archa reportedly became stressful after he was informed about the development.

To lessen damage to the party, he has come up with a back-up plan in case the party is dissolved by making Sanan Kachornprasart the leader of a new party.

Sanan will not get any Cabinet seat and holds only party advisor post in Chart Thai, thus getting immunity in the case the party was disbanded.

In the Cabinet allocation, a Chart Thai source said the party had decided to assign its secretary-general Prapat Photasuthon as Agriculture minister, deputy party leader Weerasak Kwosurat as Education minister and deputy secretary-general Warawuth Silapa-archa as Social Development and Human Security minister.

Also under the plan, Akapol Sorasuchart will be deputy Transport minister while Somsak Prissanananthakul will become deputy prime minister and not accept the deputy House Speaker post.

Banharn also has another back-up plan in case his son Warawuth does not receive a ministerial post as he only turns 35 on July 11. The minimum legal age for Cabinet members is 35.

In such a case, Banharn wants Somsak to take Social Development and Human Security and Prapat to serve as deputy PM and Jongchai Thiangtham becomes Agriculture minister.

EC member Sumeth Ubanisakorn said the EC has yet to receive the results of the examination by the panel.

At the same time, Chart Thai Party has received a lot of hate calls after it decided to join the People Power Party-led coalition, a high-ranking party source said yesterday.

He said non-stop phone calls criticising the party had prompted several Chart Thai members to discuss whether joining the coalition was worth all the complaints.

"We will have to obey every one of their orders because they are the biggest party," the source said of the People Power-led coalition.

"We don't know how long we can cope with the conditions because public sentiment is very strong.

"Many members of the public strongly criticised us, saying the party leader did not honour his words. We are under a great deal of pressure because we can't answer these charges."

The source said the allocation of Cabinet seats among the partners had not been completed.

"We have not received some of our demands but we expect it will be done soon. We believe our party leader Banharn Silapa-archa can handle this," the source said.

Meanwhile, People Power deputy leader General Ruangroj Mahasaranont said the defence minister post should go to a retired military officer who knows active military officers so that it would be easier for him to give orders and coordinate movements.

Ruangroj, a former supreme commander, was commenting on speculation that People Power leader Samak Sundaravej might become Defence minister concurrently with the prime ministership.

He said the issue would depend on the party's resolution but he was ready to become the Defence minister if asked.

People Power party-list MP Yongyuth Tiyapairat yesterday said the Defence minister post need not go to a former military officer.

"What matters most is the Defence minister needs to help the country move on and work well with the military," Yongyuth said.

Matchima Thipataya deputy leader Banyin Tangpakorn said his party would definitely vote for Samak as the next prime minister and he believed the Chart Thai and Puea Pandin parties would also vote in support of Samak's nomination.

The Nation

It has to be a positive thing for Thai democracy when people decide to tell a party what they think of it for doing a swift 180 on one of its polices within days of being voted in. It may now become clear why Banharn dodged the coalition photo opportunity. In amongst all the mess and fighting a few good things arise.

Interesting that Chuwit saw and predicted exactly this long ago.

[Jai Dee]

EC committee to resolve petition to dissolve PPP

A special committee reviewing a petition filed by Head of the people’s network against corruption Veera Somkwamkit (วีระ สมความคิด) led by Paitoon Natipoh (ไพฑูรย์ เนติโพธิ์) stated that it will be able to conclude the matter by January 27th and submit a report to the Election Commission (EC). The special committee is reviewing a petition by Mr. Veera to consider dissolving the People’s Power Party as it is acting as stand in for the disbanded Thai Rak Thai party.

The committee states that it had finished reviewing the matter with the help of experts and analysts as well as interrogating involved people. All the committee has left to do is to interrogate witnesses in the case. Mr. Paitoon stated that the committee is trying its best to make the report as complete and unbiased as possible to avoid debate in the future.

Mr. Paitoon said that after the committee concludes all the evidence and witness it will convene for two days to discuss the issue and create a report.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 21 January 2008

[hammered]

It is my belief that the courts would be under some pressure from within and probably by some outside forces NOT to disable the coalition through party dissolutions to such an extent that it creates political chaos again. "Insufficient Evidence to gain a conviction" always seems to be a convenient out for the courts in these difficult cases. Could the Democrats still take power with the minor parties excluded by dissolution? Such an act would almost certainly lead to fresh elections in which the PPP would almost certainly consolidate its leading position.

And now is certainly not an opportune time for another coup as they have no popularly perceived windmills to tilt at this time. Another coup now would be very widely seen as political interference in the democratic process without any justification. Such an action coming hot on the heels of the past 2 years of political turmoil and pain would surely benefit only the PPP.

So my guess is that the courts will NOT want to be the ones forcing another political crisis just yet.

P.S. The Thai version of "Blind Justice" always keeps one eye open.

Another interpretation of the diso of especioally Chart Thai threat is that it gives a lot of power over that party and its malleable leader. A dissolution and banning of the first family of Suphanburi would wreck their political power base. They are quite vulnerable to being reduced to poltical nothings as unlike the PPP/TRT they have no large popular backing or even vague ideology. To be in a position where deal scould not be done and favours served would possibly be the end of the CT family. Banharn will no doubt have sleepless nights over this and probably try to make sure the coalition do not get out of control in upsetting those behind the coup too much so they may just be tempted to push the doomsday button. In that the threat may be the thing itself.

It does have to be said though that if any party has done things to undermine the election that can be proven they should go down. A diso of CT and Matchimawhatsit would not even threaten the coalition just weaken it too. A diso of one party say the tiny Matchima..... thing also sends out a message of what could happen further down the line especially if the Yuth case enters the courts as a potential ticking time bomb, or could make Banharn suddenly very compliant. It will in all likelihood never happen but be part of hard nosed bargaining (over what I am not sure and will probably never know) imho. Nothing ever really happens in isolation or without purpose in the macchiavelian world of Thai politics. At this stage the PPP are going to take th emajor reigns of power. However, it would be niave to assume that the current lot and those behind them are not going to maintain all the leverage they can for as long as possible, and if the PPP were to really go after them they may just be willing to push a few buttons that involve a lot of risk.

all imho of course

[Jai Dee]

Lamphang experiences high rate of unusable ballots

Kaelangnakorn Municipal Chief Amorn Thongpradit (อมร ทองประดิษฐ์) acting as director of Lamphang provinces Election Commission revealed that after beginning ballot counts for the provinces recent constituency 1 by-election, officials found that many ballots were unusable due to misuse.

Mr. Amorn stated that many districts within the constituency reported unusable ballots that contained two or more votes, beyond the authorized single vote. He said that citizens were probably confused as to how many ballots were allowed to be used.

Initial estimates have shown that previously yellow carded candidate from the People’s Power Party Thanathorn Lohsuntorn (ธนาธร โล่ห์สุนทร) is leading in the by election followed by Democrat candidate Mathayom Nipakasem (มัธยม นิภาเกษม).

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 21 January 2008

[Jai Dee]

EC to conclude 7 province by-elections in time for Parliament meeting

Election Commission (EC) member in charge of election organization Praphan Naikowit (ประพันธ์ นัยโกวิท) has stated that the EC will hold a meeting today to receive the submission of by-election results from 7 provinces that took place yesterday. Seventeen MPs have been chosen from the by-election and the EC is attempting to process them for approval so that they may take part in the parliament’s first meeting.

Mr. Praphan also commented on the People’s Power Party’s move to instate Deputy Party leader Yongyuth Thiyaphairat (ยุทธ ติยะไพรัช) as the parliament chairman that it was up to the coalition government. Mr. Praphan said that the EC had no role in the decision as it is only involved in matters concerning the electing of officials.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 21 January 2008

[Jai Dee]

Puea Pandin to call meeting on ministerial posts today

The For the Motherland (Puea Pandin) Party leader, Mr. Suvit Khunkitti, says he will call a meeting today between the party’s executives and members of the parliament to consider ministerial posts of the coalition government led by the People Power Party (PPP).

Thge PPP leader, Mr. Samak Sundaravej, said during the news conference to declare the formation of the coalition on Saturday that the name list of ministers will come out within these 2-3 days and will be officially announced early February.

Sources say the Puea Pandin is expected to have one deputy premier post, two deputy ministers, and two ministers. Meanwhile, its MP candidate Sophon Phetsawang, will hold a press conference today on electoral fraud in Buri Ram province.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 21 January 2008

[John K]

COALITION CRISIS

Trouble looms for govt

Dissolution of key parties still likely; Chart Thai hit by hail of hate calls

Despite Saturday's declaration of a six-party coalition, political uncertainties continued yesterday following a reports that Chart Thai and the Matchima Thipataya parties face possible dissolution for alleged electoral offences by key members.

The Election Commission's panel tasked with investigating the parties' poll violation cases have reportedly found enough grounds to proceed against the two allies of the People Power Party, which on Saturday declared its formation of a coalition government.

The cases involved the parties' executives who are accused of committing serious electoral offences and who were given red cards, EC sources said yesterday.

If the EC approves the panel's findings, it will have to seek a Constitution Court decision on the fate of the parties.

"Whatever befalls the two parties will affect the PPP whose party deputy leader Yongyuth Tiyapairat is also under investigation for electoral fraud and faces being handed a red card,'' one source said.

Chart Thai deputy-secretary general Monthien Songpracha and Matchima Thipataya Party deputy leader Sunthorn Vilawan were given red cards. Under new electoral rules, a political party is accountable for electoral offences involving party executives.

Article 103 of the Constitution organic law on the election of MPs and senators stipulates that if there is incriminating evidence that party leaders or executives committed wilful neglect or did not stop electoral fraud, it will be regarded that the party was seeking power through undemocratic mean and had violated the Constitution.

In such a situation, the EC can ask the Constitution Court to disband a party and bans its leaders from politics for five years.

Under the law, party members of the dissolved parties must find new parties within 60 days.

The source said the panel will soon wrap up its report on the possibility of dissolving the parties.

"It will take at least three months to see if the two parties will be dissolved,'' the EC source said.

Chart Thai Party leader Banharn Silapa-archa reportedly became stressful after he was informed about the development.

To lessen damage to the party, he has come up with a back-up plan in case the party is dissolved by making Sanan Kachornprasart the leader of a new party.

Sanan will not get any Cabinet seat and holds only party advisor post in Chart Thai, thus getting immunity in the case the party was disbanded.

In the Cabinet allocation, a Chart Thai source said the party had decided to assign its secretary-general Prapat Photasuthon as Agriculture minister, deputy party leader Weerasak Kwosurat as Education minister and deputy secretary-general Warawuth Silapa-archa as Social Development and Human Security minister.

Also under the plan, Akapol Sorasuchart will be deputy Transport minister while Somsak Prissanananthakul will become deputy prime minister and not accept the deputy House Speaker post.

Banharn also has another back-up plan in case his son Warawuth does not receive a ministerial post as he only turns 35 on July 11. The minimum legal age for Cabinet members is 35.

In such a case, Banharn wants Somsak to take Social Development and Human Security and Prapat to serve as deputy PM and Jongchai Thiangtham becomes Agriculture minister.

EC member Sumeth Ubanisakorn said the EC has yet to receive the results of the examination by the panel.

At the same time, Chart Thai Party has received a lot of hate calls after it decided to join the People Power Party-led coalition, a high-ranking party source said yesterday.

He said non-stop phone calls criticising the party had prompted several Chart Thai members to discuss whether joining the coalition was worth all the complaints.

"We will have to obey every one of their orders because they are the biggest party," the source said of the People Power-led coalition.

"We don't know how long we can cope with the conditions because public sentiment is very strong.

"Many members of the public strongly criticised us, saying the party leader did not honour his words. We are under a great deal of pressure because we can't answer these charges."

The source said the allocation of Cabinet seats among the partners had not been completed.

"We have not received some of our demands but we expect it will be done soon. We believe our party leader Banharn Silapa-archa can handle this," the source said.

Meanwhile, People Power deputy leader General Ruangroj Mahasaranont said the defence minister post should go to a retired military officer who knows active military officers so that it would be easier for him to give orders and coordinate movements.

Ruangroj, a former supreme commander, was commenting on speculation that People Power leader Samak Sundaravej might become Defence minister concurrently with the prime ministership.

He said the issue would depend on the party's resolution but he was ready to become the Defence minister if asked.

People Power party-list MP Yongyuth Tiyapairat yesterday said the Defence minister post need not go to a former military officer.

"What matters most is the Defence minister needs to help the country move on and work well with the military," Yongyuth said.

Matchima Thipataya deputy leader Banyin Tangpakorn said his party would definitely vote for Samak as the next prime minister and he believed the Chart Thai and Puea Pandin parties would also vote in support of Samak's nomination.

The Nation

It has to be a positive thing for Thai democracy when people decide to tell a party what they think of it for doing a swift 180 on one of its polices within days of being voted in. It may now become clear why Banharn dodged the coalition photo opportunity. In amongst all the mess and fighting a few good things arise.

Interesting that Chuwit saw and predicted exactly this long ago.

Yes good point but think you will agree that a lot is said that never meets the media. The part about “We will have to obey every one of their orders because they are the biggest party” suggests the kind of deals that went on, nothing at all about doing things for their constituency.

[hammered]

COALITION CRISIS

Trouble looms for govt

Dissolution of key parties still likely; Chart Thai hit by hail of hate calls

Despite Saturday's declaration of a six-party coalition, political uncertainties continued yesterday following a reports that Chart Thai and the Matchima Thipataya parties face possible dissolution for alleged electoral offences by key members.

The Election Commission's panel tasked with investigating the parties' poll violation cases have reportedly found enough grounds to proceed against the two allies of the People Power Party, which on Saturday declared its formation of a coalition government.

The cases involved the parties' executives who are accused of committing serious electoral offences and who were given red cards, EC sources said yesterday.

If the EC approves the panel's findings, it will have to seek a Constitution Court decision on the fate of the parties.

"Whatever befalls the two parties will affect the PPP whose party deputy leader Yongyuth Tiyapairat is also under investigation for electoral fraud and faces being handed a red card,'' one source said.

Chart Thai deputy-secretary general Monthien Songpracha and Matchima Thipataya Party deputy leader Sunthorn Vilawan were given red cards. Under new electoral rules, a political party is accountable for electoral offences involving party executives.

Article 103 of the Constitution organic law on the election of MPs and senators stipulates that if there is incriminating evidence that party leaders or executives committed wilful neglect or did not stop electoral fraud, it will be regarded that the party was seeking power through undemocratic mean and had violated the Constitution.

In such a situation, the EC can ask the Constitution Court to disband a party and bans its leaders from politics for five years.

Under the law, party members of the dissolved parties must find new parties within 60 days.

The source said the panel will soon wrap up its report on the possibility of dissolving the parties.

"It will take at least three months to see if the two parties will be dissolved,'' the EC source said.

Chart Thai Party leader Banharn Silapa-archa reportedly became stressful after he was informed about the development.

To lessen damage to the party, he has come up with a back-up plan in case the party is dissolved by making Sanan Kachornprasart the leader of a new party.

Sanan will not get any Cabinet seat and holds only party advisor post in Chart Thai, thus getting immunity in the case the party was disbanded.

In the Cabinet allocation, a Chart Thai source said the party had decided to assign its secretary-general Prapat Photasuthon as Agriculture minister, deputy party leader Weerasak Kwosurat as Education minister and deputy secretary-general Warawuth Silapa-archa as Social Development and Human Security minister.

Also under the plan, Akapol Sorasuchart will be deputy Transport minister while Somsak Prissanananthakul will become deputy prime minister and not accept the deputy House Speaker post.

Banharn also has another back-up plan in case his son Warawuth does not receive a ministerial post as he only turns 35 on July 11. The minimum legal age for Cabinet members is 35.

In such a case, Banharn wants Somsak to take Social Development and Human Security and Prapat to serve as deputy PM and Jongchai Thiangtham becomes Agriculture minister.

EC member Sumeth Ubanisakorn said the EC has yet to receive the results of the examination by the panel.

At the same time, Chart Thai Party has received a lot of hate calls after it decided to join the People Power Party-led coalition, a high-ranking party source said yesterday.

He said non-stop phone calls criticising the party had prompted several Chart Thai members to discuss whether joining the coalition was worth all the complaints.

"We will have to obey every one of their orders because they are the biggest party," the source said of the People Power-led coalition.

"We don't know how long we can cope with the conditions because public sentiment is very strong.

"Many members of the public strongly criticised us, saying the party leader did not honour his words. We are under a great deal of pressure because we can't answer these charges."

The source said the allocation of Cabinet seats among the partners had not been completed.

"We have not received some of our demands but we expect it will be done soon. We believe our party leader Banharn Silapa-archa can handle this," the source said.

Meanwhile, People Power deputy leader General Ruangroj Mahasaranont said the defence minister post should go to a retired military officer who knows active military officers so that it would be easier for him to give orders and coordinate movements.

Ruangroj, a former supreme commander, was commenting on speculation that People Power leader Samak Sundaravej might become Defence minister concurrently with the prime ministership.

He said the issue would depend on the party's resolution but he was ready to become the Defence minister if asked.

People Power party-list MP Yongyuth Tiyapairat yesterday said the Defence minister post need not go to a former military officer.

"What matters most is the Defence minister needs to help the country move on and work well with the military," Yongyuth said.

Matchima Thipataya deputy leader Banyin Tangpakorn said his party would definitely vote for Samak as the next prime minister and he believed the Chart Thai and Puea Pandin parties would also vote in support of Samak's nomination.

The Nation

It has to be a positive thing for Thai democracy when people decide to tell a party what they think of it for doing a swift 180 on one of its polices within days of being voted in. It may now become clear why Banharn dodged the coalition photo opportunity. In amongst all the mess and fighting a few good things arise.

Interesting that Chuwit saw and predicted exactly this long ago.

Yes good point but think you will agree that a lot is said that never meets the media. The part about “We will have to obey every one of their orders because they are the biggest party” suggests the kind of deals that went on, nothing at all about doing things for their constituency.

Every now and again a little snippet of the reality of how Thai coaliton politcs works slips out. This is such a case. You support us through thick and thin and in return you get...... is the way of it. In the 90s etc at some point pressure would get too much and the goevernment look too tainted and a coaliton ally would bring it down. There would be a election and then a new government. that was basically how Thai check and balance worked. With the advent of TRT but with weak formal check and balance mechanisms that changed. When the governemtn started to look tainted the factions (no coalition then) didnt turn on the party but instead stuck with them seeing a further TRT election victory as the outcome whether the governemtn was tainted or not. This time it remains to be seen how coaltion allies will react if pressured over a tainted government. It could go either way although I would guess that PPP could easily win another election even by more as apart from retaining the best machinary and a fairly popular message and being well " oiled"they will next time control the apparatus it will be held under and dont believe all their stuff about we cant have vote manipualtion meaning anymore than "against us". That would indicate a reluctanc eof any coaltion allies to desert the PPP. The independent bosies in Thailand right now are weak and seen as compromised (now by PPP enemies and probably soon by PPP friends). Thailand doe need to see these bodies develop more independence, neutrality, power and confidence if democracy is to develop further although the bodies themselves will probably only mirror how Thai civil society develops. Interestingly too as check and balance mechanisms strengthen there will become less need for street demos as, and this is important, people who feel agrieved by government action have a trusted alternative route to air their grievance and get a fair hearing. This though is some years away imho.

[John K]

It is my belief that the courts would be under some pressure from within and probably by some outside forces NOT to disable the coalition through party dissolutions to such an extent that it creates political chaos again. "Insufficient Evidence to gain a conviction" always seems to be a convenient out for the courts in these difficult cases. Could the Democrats still take power with the minor parties excluded by dissolution? Such an act would almost certainly lead to fresh elections in which the PPP would almost certainly consolidate its leading position.

And now is certainly not an opportune time for another coup as they have no popularly perceived windmills to tilt at this time. Another coup now would be very widely seen as political interference in the democratic process without any justification. Such an action coming hot on the heels of the past 2 years of political turmoil and pain would surely benefit only the PPP.

So my guess is that the courts will NOT want to be the ones forcing another political crisis just yet.

P.S. The Thai version of "Blind Justice" always keeps one eye open.

The only one that I see forcing a political crisis is Thaksin. Everything else is reactive. Based on the PPP already seeking revenge has nothing to do with politics. The bad guys have found a gun, defending yourself is a natural reaction. The fact that the facade has come off so early clearly suggests a overwhelming desire for payback. Seeing as the PPP itself is a new party and supposedly not a proxy to the TRT, how can there be revenge or payback. The banned 111 are not involved as a proxy according to the statements where they can’t look you in the eye while saying it. The PPP has only it’s own interest in mind.

It comes down to two things now. Red cards that can dissolve or a coup that will once again push reset.

For the people that were/are anti junta, I suspect you are on the verge of getting a taste of what life would have been like if there was no coup. I only hope you are here to enjoy it.

[Jai Dee]

EC to set up investigating panel for electoral cases of Chart Thai and Matchima Thipataya

Election Commissioner Sumeth Ubanisakorn (สุเมธ อุปนิสากร) reports that the Election Commission (EC) will set up an investigating panel for electoral fraud cases of the Chart Thai and the Matchima Thipataya parties. The panel’s work is to consider whether the two parties should be dissolved as their MP candidates who are executives of the parties were disqualified in the cases.

Mr Sumeth says the investigating panel will interrogate more witnesses and gather more evidence. After the panel finishes its investigation, EC will request the Constitution Court to decide whether to dissolve the parties if the investigation results show that the disqualified MPs acted against the election laws on behalf of their parties.

EC expects to approve winning MP candidates contesting the by-elections yesterday (January 20) today by 16.00 hrs.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 21 January 2008

[sriracha john]

458 MPs report for duty at EC

The first parliament meeting scheduled for today will have

34 Chart Thai MPs

9 from Matchima Thipathai

EC to set up investigating panel for electoral cases of Chart Thai and Matchima Thipataya

the Election Commission will set up an investigating panel for electoral fraud cases of the Chart Thai and the Matchima Thipataya parties. The panel’s work is to consider whether the two parties should be dissolved

possibly 43 by-elections?

[Jai Dee]

Democrat to contest for posts of speaker

The Democrats will Monday meet to consider nominating its MPs for the House Speaker and deputies' posts, a party spokesman said

The party's election centre spokesman Thepthai Senpong said the party executives will meet Monday afternoon to consider whether to contest for all or some of the posts.

If the party decides to contest for all of the three posts, former Senate Speaker and the party's proportionate MP Manoonkrit Roopkachorn, former party leader Banyat Bantadthan and executive Charoen Kanthawong would be nominated.

It was still uncertain whether the party will nominate all but the three are qualified, Thepthai said.

The election of the posts in the House is scheduled Tuesday.

Source: The Nation - 21 January 2008

[Jai Dee]

Democrat Party nominates Banyat as the House Speaker

The Democrats Monday will nominate its former leader Banyat Banthattan to contest as the House Speaker as the parliament convenes Monday.

Khunying Kalaya Soponpannitch, Democrat's Constitutency Mp, will run in the contest to be deputy House speaker.

The election of the posts in the House is scheduled Tuesday.

Source: The Nation - 21 January 2008

[Old Man River]

It has to be a positive thing for Thai democracy when people decide to tell a party what they think of it for doing a swift 180 on one of its polices within days of being voted in.

Yes, it is a very good thing, but the bottom line is the PPP has been able to get away with its vote buying and persuade other parties to join them. These guys now have a mandate to run the country. How is the coalition going to manage the country? What will they do about the country's economic problems? Are the PPP smart enough to realize that they weren't entrusted with the responsibility of running the country just to take revenge on their enemies? Are they up to it or was this just a very big mistake?

[John K]

It has to be a positive thing for Thai democracy when people decide to tell a party what they think of it for doing a swift 180 on one of its polices within days of being voted in.

Yes, it is a very good thing, but the bottom line is the PPP has been able to get away with its vote buying and persuade other parties to join them. These guys now have a mandate to run the country. How is the coalition going to manage the country? What will they do about the country's economic problems? Are the PPP smart enough to realize that they weren't entrusted with the responsibility of running the country just to take revenge on their enemies? Are they up to it or was this just a very big mistake?

I think a little cash was involved in the process of this type of vote buying too and I don’t think a few prepaid phone cards was enough. Perhaps that is why the sudden end to cash flow at Manchester?

I think this is a bit like the beginning of the movie “War of the worlds” as the machines were just rising up from the ground. Not a good though at all.

[hammered]

It has to be a positive thing for Thai democracy when people decide to tell a party what they think of it for doing a swift 180 on one of its polices within days of being voted in.

Yes, it is a very good thing, but the bottom line is the PPP has been able to get away with its vote buying and persuade other parties to join them. These guys now have a mandate to run the country. How is the coalition going to manage the country? What will they do about the country's economic problems? Are the PPP smart enough to realize that they weren't entrusted with the responsibility of running the country just to take revenge on their enemies? Are they up to it or was this just a very big mistake?

I think Thaksin and wife are clever enough to realise what you say, but they have to make things against them go away and that has and will continue to put them in the debt of some characters who will probably want more of their ounce of flesh than Thaksin would himself. Controlling the payback even if there is a will, will not be easy at all. There are also politcal debts to be repaid outside of the vengeance stuff. It will be hard to balance repaying the faithful and removing their foes while not upsetting the whole apple cart, and could so easily leave the country effectively rudderless for a while longer yet.

[Old Man River]

It has to be a positive thing for Thai democracy when people decide to tell a party what they think of it for doing a swift 180 on one of its polices within days of being voted in.

Yes, it is a very good thing, but the bottom line is the PPP has been able to get away with its vote buying and persuade other parties to join them. These guys now have a mandate to run the country. How is the coalition going to manage the country? What will they do about the country's economic problems? Are the PPP smart enough to realize that they weren't entrusted with the responsibility of running the country just to take revenge on their enemies? Are they up to it or was this just a very big mistake?

I think Thaksin and wife are clever enough to realise what you say, but they have to make things against them go away and that has and will continue to put them in the debt of some characters who will probably want more of their ounce of flesh than Thaksin would himself. Controlling the payback even if there is a will, will not be easy at all. There are also politcal debts to be repaid outside of the vengeance stuff. It will be hard to balance repaying the faithful and removing their foes while not upsetting the whole apple cart, and could so easily leave the country effectively rudderless for a while longer yet.

The issue is twofold. How long before these guys concentrate on the economic issues at hand and even if they do, do they have the answers? If they remain sidetracked the answer is obvious and there are many that believe they won't have any answers anyway. When is Thailand going to get a government that focuses on the economy instead of personal and political issues? We await to see what the PPP has on offer.

[sriracha john]

well.... wasn't this a special choice for the voters.....

Wife of Buriram's Recognized Politician Wins Local Election

The election for the new chairman of Buriram's provincial administration organization is complete. The polling results revealed that candidate number 15, Karuna Chidchob, who is the wife of local recognized politician, Newin Chidchob (TRT Banned #NoOneGivesAShiteAnymore), achieved a decisive victory against candidate number 3, Usanee Chidchob, who is Newin's elder sister.

Karuna got 270,388 votes, while Usanee got 93,875.

As for the election of the members of Buriram's provincial administration organization, applicants from Karuna's team won 35 seats in the council, while Usanee's team got only 7.

- Thailand Outlook

==========================================

What's not reported is that Newin's pet female gerbil got voted in as well.

Edited January 21, 2008 by sriracha john

[Lilawadee]

It is my belief that the courts would be under some pressure from within and probably by some outside forces NOT to disable the coalition through party dissolutions to such an extent that it creates political chaos again. Could the Democrats still take power with the minor parties excluded by dissolution? Such an act would almost certainly lead to fresh elections in which the PPP would almost certainly consolidate its leading position. And now is certainly not an opportune time for another coup as they have no popularly perceived windmills to tilt at this time. Another coup now would be very widely seen as political interference in the democratic process without any justification. Such an action coming hot on the heels of the past 2 years of political turmoil and pain would surely benefit only the PPP.

Of course.

Anyone else still thinking they're hearing tanks being fuelled up?

The only one that I see forcing a political crisis is Thaksin. Everything else is reactive. Based on the PPP already seeking revenge has nothing to do with politics. The bad guys have found a gun, defending yourself is a natural reaction. The fact that the facade has come off so early clearly suggests a overwhelming desire for payback. Seeing as the PPP itself is a new party and supposedly not a proxy to the TRT, how can there be revenge or payback. The banned 111 are not involved as a proxy according to the statements where they can't look you in the eye while saying it. The PPP has only it's own interest in mind. It comes down to two things now. Red cards that can dissolve or a coup that will once again push reset.

Well.. No. :D

A PPP led government will rule for a year or so, then there will be the usual trouble in the coalition followed by more elections. Any attempts to amend (restore) the constitution will fail in the Senate, of course.

For the people that were/are anti junta, I suspect you are on the verge of getting a taste of what life would have been like if there was no coup. I only hope you are here to enjoy it.

LOL!!!! To get a taste of life without a coup / interference has been my greatest wish (politically) for well over a year!! Get the economy back on track, finish Suvarnabhumi properly, re-introduce a lot of the policies that were cut, especially those that benefit and advance the poor.

And yes, I'll be here to enjoy it. :D

Yes, it is a very good thing, but the bottom line is the PPP has been able to get away with its vote buying and persuade other parties to join them. These guys now have a mandate to run the country. How is the coalition going to manage the country? What will they do about the country's economic problems? Are the PPP smart enough to realize that they weren't entrusted with the responsibility of running the country just to take revenge on their enemies? Are they up to it or was this just a very big mistake?

My personal belief is that they will be less effective than TRT, which didn't have to make self-serving factions/parties in a coalition well fed. Plus of course a lot of the better people in TRT were banned; not sure if that can be overturned (or that the current group even WANTS that overturned, seeing they're sitting pretty right now).

But no, I don't think Samak is anywhere near the level of effective leadership and grasp on the economy that Taksin has. So if at all possible then having Thaksin back at least in a prominent advisory role would be benefitial.

And I still hope Samak doesn't get the top job, but I realize that's wishful thinking. PPP may not have a choice here as they're forced by what happened the past year.

Oh, I have one final comment on that Nation Editorial on press freedom: "HA ha ha!" I didn't hear much of that while the press was under ACTUAL censorship from a military junta. I'm unlikely to ever buy that paper again. (Though happy to remain informed/amused by their opinions on these pages here)

Edited January 21, 2008 by Lilawadee

[ando]

Any attempts to amend (restore) the constitution will fail in the Senate, of course.

A proposal supported by ALL parties including the Democrats might have a good chance of getting passed in the senate.

Not all the Senate appointees are going to be junta/elite cronies.

[hammered]

It has to be a positive thing for Thai democracy when people decide to tell a party what they think of it for doing a swift 180 on one of its polices within days of being voted in.

Yes, it is a very good thing, but the bottom line is the PPP has been able to get away with its vote buying and persuade other parties to join them. These guys now have a mandate to run the country. How is the coalition going to manage the country? What will they do about the country's economic problems? Are the PPP smart enough to realize that they weren't entrusted with the responsibility of running the country just to take revenge on their enemies? Are they up to it or was this just a very big mistake?

I think Thaksin and wife are clever enough to realise what you say, but they have to make things against them go away and that has and will continue to put them in the debt of some characters who will probably want more of their ounce of flesh than Thaksin would himself. Controlling the payback even if there is a will, will not be easy at all. There are also politcal debts to be repaid outside of the vengeance stuff. It will be hard to balance repaying the faithful and removing their foes while not upsetting the whole apple cart, and could so easily leave the country effectively rudderless for a while longer yet.

The issue is twofold. How long before these guys concentrate on the economic issues at hand and even if they do, do they have the answers? If they remain sidetracked the answer is obvious and there are many that believe they won't have any answers anyway. When is Thailand going to get a government that focuses on the economy instead of personal and political issues? We await to see what the PPP has on offer.

I did hear that Thanong and Virabongse had turned the PPP down on economic portfolios. There cant be too many qualified people out there to choose from. I am not sure about Surapong for finance. It sounds a bit odd to me too if it is a serious proposal. Obviously I hope they do come up with something good and quick, but they will be very sidetracked and maybe lightweight on the economic portfolios. This may not in the short term hurt them politcally though.

[hammered]

Any attempts to amend (restore) the constitution will fail in the Senate, of course.

A proposal supported by ALL parties including the Democrats might have a good chance of getting passed in the senate.

Not all the Senate appointees are going to be junta/elite cronies.

Indeed if the PPP were to state they would only put forward proposals supported brooadly by all parties there is no way they would fail. However, personal interests in what goes in a consty may prevent that as may sidetracking events and the real issue of a faltering economy.

[Lilawadee]

Any attempts to amend (restore) the constitution will fail in the Senate, of course.

A proposal supported by ALL parties including the Democrats might have a good chance of getting passed in the senate. Not all the Senate appointees are going to be junta/elite cronies.

No, just half of them.

But I'm sure that perhaps some minor tweaks get passed. Something major however I can't see happening.

[Lilawadee]

So on that note, and seeing that a new topic "Thailand's parliament convenes first session since 2006 coup" has been started, I think it may indeed be time to draw the curtains on this epic exchange..