Exchange Rates ..... Waaaaaaaa!

[glasshock]

UK Pounds - Thai Bht ....... 65.49 ........

Anyone take a stab in the dark as to when ...or if the rates will return to the norm?

I know the government's unsettled at the moment so obviously exchange rates are affected,but how long for?

We have a little UK cash to exchange and moneys from the UK to transfer. Start work in two weeks and paid in 6 weeks.... I'm dipping into the cash more often than I'd like and losing money all the time........

Any advice welcome.....

Thanks again............ and once again some of the posts on here have made me laugh so much that I nearly stayed in over the festive period just to read our ramblings....

All the best.........

[naka]

You are asking us to hand over the Holy Grail !

Of course even if we had it, we would never hand it over.

Naka.

[glasshock]

You are asking us to hand over the Holy Grail !

Of course even if we had it, we would never hand it over.

Naka.

Noted ...... but just one taste? ...

[chiang mai]

There's been several other active threads on this topic recently, some of them claim GBP will hit 50 something in 2008. Given the present outlook for Sterling this year there is no good news around.

[apetley]

Are rates likely to fall in the UK? The general feeling is yes so that means less Bht for your pound.

Are Thai rates likely to go down? The general feeling is no, they may even rise a little as inflation in Thailand is expected to rise so that would mean less Bht for your pound.

The wildcard, imho, is the stability of the to the Thai Government and even that may not weaken the Bht.

Remember what happened immediately after the last coup, the Bht actually strengthened so don't count on tumoil in internal politics to give you more baht for your pound.

Looking back over the last decade somebody posted here that the average exchanage rate was somewhere in the 65 Bht to the pound range. If you need the money and can get that then I would say take it.

On a more cautious note if anyones stay in Thailand relies on a rate of 65 or over then they should seriously examine their finances and plan for a lower rate in the future as history indicates thats where the average will be.

[cm-happy]

The Big question is:

WILL THE LADIES IN PATTAYA adjust their rates to compensate for GPB deflation?

[glasshock]

Are rates likely to fall in the UK? The general feeling is yes so that means less Bht for your pound.

Are Thai rates likely to go down? The general feeling is no, they may even rise a little as inflation in Thailand is expected to rise so that would mean less Bht for your pound.

The wildcard, imho, is the stability of the to the Thai Government and even that may not weaken the Bht.

Remember what happened immediately after the last coup, the Bht actually strengthened so don't count on tumoil in internal politics to give you more baht for your pound.

Looking back over the last decade somebody posted here that the average exchanage rate was somewhere in the 65 Bht to the pound range. If you need the money and can get that then I would say take it.

On a more cautious note if anyones stay in Thailand relies on a rate of 65 or over then they should seriously examine their finances and plan for a lower rate in the future as history indicates thats where the average will be.

Thank you ... very informative. The exchange rate doesnt affect my stay here.... just when you look at how much money you may be throwing away just by transfering at the wrong time............... it's quite shocking.

Though growing up in England, my family are all Scots ....... so exchanging £1.00 at the wrong rate makes me shiver

Thanks again,

Mike

[Neeranam]

The Big question is:

WILL THE LADIES IN PATTAYA adjust their rates to compensate for GPB deflation?

Of course not. Remember what happened in 1997 - they started asking for dollars.

[glasshock]

The Big question is:

WILL THE LADIES IN PATTAYA adjust their rates to compensate for GPB deflation?

I'm sure there are some here that will try!!

[lannarebirth]

I don't think there's any way to accurately predict GBP movement against the Thai baht, as no such trade exists. The Trade is GBP>>>USD, USD>>>THB. Technical analysis hints at a better than average probability that the GBP will weaken further against the USD. What t6hat means for the USD>>THB trade, and by extension the GBP>>THB exchange, is anyone's guess.

[chiang mai]

I don't think there's any way to accurately predict GBP movement against the Thai baht, as no such trade exists. The Trade is GBP>>>USD, USD>>>THB. Technical analysis hints at a better than average probability that the GBP will weaken further against the USD. What t6hat means for the USD>>THB trade, and by extension the GBP>>THB exchange, is anyone's guess.

Agreed with Lana. But trade weighted GBP has shed 6% since November and there are more interest rate cuts forecast which causes GBP to lose its yield appeal. RBS forecast GBP/USD at 1.70 by end 2008 but also reckon that USD has further to slide. The combination of those two events, if they materialize, could spell a lot of pain for GBP into THB.

[PhilHarries]

Personally I see it all as crystal ball speculation coupled with the usual bunch of doomsayers trying to predict the future so they can say "told you so". The thing with these people is that, if correct, they all leap up and down with glee at their accurate prediction (aka guess) but if wrong they keep quiet and hope nobody remembers.

The bottom line is that the GBP is more likely to fall, only the amount is in question, than rise certainly in the medium term. So exchanging money now is unlikely to be a bad move. The wild card is the public and military reaction to Thaksin's return assuming he does. Although the Baht did actually rise over the last coup it has to be remembered that the last coup was a peaceful, largely popular (in Bangkok), event that was viewed rather benignly by the business and political world. There was the usual condemnations trotted out for public consumption but nothing too strong. Another coup is unlikely to be so well received and any effect on the Baht is as impossible to predict as it is to predict the winning lottery number. But as long as the money you transfer is to be spent in Thailand any change in the exchange rate will not have a significant effect on it's spending power just will leave you with a "wish we held on/exchanged then feeling".

You don't actually give an indication regarding the amounts involved in your transfers. If they are merely to cover day to day living expenses until your first pay packet then the rate is not going to make a huge monetary impact. But if it is a large wedge then you are right to be concerned about future trends. However if it is a large amount you're probably best off leaving it outside Thailand unless you really need it for property or business. There are pleny who can advise you on best currencies but the Euro is looking a good bet at the moment.

[peter991]

I don't have a crystal ball, but looking at the historical exchange rates between the British Pound and the Thai baht, have a look here:

Peter

[cmsally]

I predict UK pound to go down and therefore did a couple of transactions before New Year. One caught the slight upswing between Xmas & New Year. I noticed today we are on the way down again.

It could be a big mistake to say - how long before it is back to "normal ".

In my opinion normal in the next couple of years could be closer to 60Bt.

[wintermute]

I'm all for an increase in the GBP if it gets rid of some of the tattooed football hooligans and other assorted trash on budget holiday.

[chiang mai]

Personally I see it all as crystal ball speculation coupled with the usual bunch of doomsayers trying to predict the future so they can say "told you so". The thing with these people is that, if correct, they all leap up and down with glee at their accurate prediction (aka guess) but if wrong they keep quiet and hope nobody remembers.

The bottom line is that the GBP is more likely to fall, only the amount is in question, than rise certainly in the medium term. So exchanging money now is unlikely to be a bad move. The wild card is the public and military reaction to Thaksin's return assuming he does. Although the Baht did actually rise over the last coup it has to be remembered that the last coup was a peaceful, largely popular (in Bangkok), event that was viewed rather benignly by the business and political world. There was the usual condemnations trotted out for public consumption but nothing too strong. Another coup is unlikely to be so well received and any effect on the Baht is as impossible to predict as it is to predict the winning lottery number. But as long as the money you transfer is to be spent in Thailand any change in the exchange rate will not have a significant effect on it's spending power just will leave you with a "wish we held on/exchanged then feeling".

You don't actually give an indication regarding the amounts involved in your transfers. If they are merely to cover day to day living expenses until your first pay packet then the rate is not going to make a huge monetary impact. But if it is a large wedge then you are right to be concerned about future trends. However if it is a large amount you're probably best off leaving it outside Thailand unless you really need it for property or business. There are pleny who can advise you on best currencies but the Euro is looking a good bet at the moment.

Phill, I don't get your post. The OP raises a question about what's happening to GBP and a few people answer. You reply with your opening statement and then go on to give your views the same as others. For my part I have no interest in being right on the predictions merely right on the financial decisions that come out of the debate.

[disgruntled]

Sounds like the US dollar will remain weak for the next decade or so unless of course we enter into world war 3 or something drastic happens. No real info to support this other than Bloomberg interviewees. I have dolalrs and I am not getting my hopes up. There's no reason to support the dollar as those at the top are completely free to put their money anywhere in the world. It's the average Joe who doesn't know or have the time to manage moving their money who will suffer. The world is being raped by people in finance and the people whose money they manage. How can you compete with someone who has people managing their money 24 hours a day moving it all over the world. Laundering money was a good way in the past for those in illegal businesses to hide it. Now, the idea of moving money is making the wealthiest even richer. I guess its something like day trading on speed. But who knows maybe I am completely wrong about this.

[Neeranam]

Isn't the rate just wonderful today?

Anything above 37 baht to the pound is a bonus. When I came here it was that.

[Naam]

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...p;#entry1738260

post # 228

[jetjock]

Educated guesses are better than nothing in regards to where different currencies are headed so thanks Naam for a link to your banker's forcast chart.

If anyone truly knew the answer to the OP question of where currencies are headed, I would guess they would be too busy spending the many millions they were making trading forex and would not have time to post on this forum. It is interesting however to read posters opinions and forcasts and the reasoning behind them.

[howtoescape]

I'm all for an increase in the GBP if it gets rid of some of the tattooed football hooligans and other assorted trash on budget holiday.

At 650GBP a flight it is hardly a budget holiday anymore.

I saw 2 Australian businessmen types the other day with 2 boys that couldnt have been a day over 16, are these wealthy looking types the kind you want?

The BBC was predicting the pound to weaken v the dollar this year and for it to strengthen v the euro later on in the year as most the bad news is already reflected in the pounds valuation v the euro.

Edited January 2, 2008 by howtoescape

[Naam]

It is interesting however to read posters opinions and forcasts and the reasoning behind them.

i think most of us are influenced by what the media and our bankers tell us. my personal experience over many years: it was more profitable NOT to listen always to their advice.

[Naam]

quite bulky but interesting. sorry, no link available. have to copy and paste:

Summary

The dollar has fallen to all-time/multi-year lows against a number of the word’s

leading currencies in recent months, including the pound and euro. Both cyclical

and structural factors have been at play. The cyclical downturn of the US economy

makes investing in US assets appear less attractive and puts the greenback under

pressure. From a structural standpoint, the dollar had to decline to help the US

reduce its persistently high current account deficit.

While conceivable, a disorderly “run on the dollar” is unlikely, as this would be in

nobody’s best interest. The accompanying sell-off in US assets would lead to

significant losses on the large stock of dollar-denominated assets held by central

banks in Asia and the major oil-producing countries. With US bond prices under

pressure, long-term interest rates would rise, denting US economic activity. The

export sector in the UK and the Eurozone would be hit hard. Therefore, further

sharp falls would likely prompt coordinated action by international policy-makers.

An orderly re-balancing is more probable, facilitated by countries in the Middle

East and Asia loosening their currency pegs against the dollar. This would help to

bring global trade flows back towards a sustainable trajectory. Downward

pressure on the dollar against the pound and the euro would also ease, although a

major bounceback would be unlikely. In this scenario, UK and Eurozone exporters

will suffer deteriorations in their competitiveness, but not a collapse.

The decline – cyclical and structural

The dollar has fallen to all-time/multi-year lows against a number of currencies in recent

weeks. The immediate driver is a combination of concerns about the outlook for the US

economy, given the slowdown in the housing market and subprime mortgage losses, and

falling US short-term interest rates as the US Federal Reserve tries to stimulate the

economy. Put simply, lower interest-rates and corporate profits make investing in US

assets, primarily bonds and equities, less attractive relative to assets denominated in

another currency, encouraging international investors to sell dollars and buy assets in

other currencies. Chart 1 illustrates how the dollar has declined against the euro as the

interest rate differential between the two currencies narrowed.

There are also more fundamental structural reasons why the dollar is declining. The US

runs a current account deficit of a size unprecedented in history, absorbing around ¾ of

world savings. This is not sustainable. The decline in the greenback will help to bring the

US current account, and global trade patterns, back to a sustainable trajectory.

Furthermore, the dollar seems to be gradually losing its role as a reserve currency (see

Appendix A for a more detailed explanation). Indeed the dollar has been on a longterm

downward trend for a number of years (see chart 2). Although more sizeable,

the recent falls of the greenback can be seen as a continuation of this long-term trend.

A major floating currency that has not been on a long-term upward trend against

the dollar is the yen. Official interest rates in Japan have been almost zero for more

than a decade and are likely to stay so for a while (the official base rate currently stands

at 0.5%). This makes the yen a major currency in the ‘carry trade’, i.e. borrowing in yen

and investing the proceeds in countries where interest rates are higher. The ‘carry trade’

has been immensely popular with investors over the past years, resulting in a continuous

sale of yen. Up until a few weeks ago, this has more than offset the upward pressure on

the yen stemming from the Japanese trade surplus. However, the yen has started to

appreciate against the dollar in recent weeks. This could signal a drop in investors’ risk

tolerance, which increases the chances that investors start to abruptly unwind the ‘carrytrade’

and raises upward risks for yen vis-à-vis the dollar.

“Their currency but our problem?”

Why is the dollar’s weakness a potential concern? The most obvious effect is that

exports from other countries are more expensive in dollar terms, harming

competitiveness. This does not only affect exports to the US, but also exports to

countries in Asia and the Middle East – because many of these countries peg their

currencies to the dollar (whether formally or informally).

Trade-exposed companies have two ways to cope with an increase in their domestic

exchange rate: they either have to accept lower margins or increase their foreign price at

the expense of market share. Recent evidence suggests they prefer volatility in the

former to volatility in the latter (i.e. keeping dollar prices constant to maintain market

share, and letting margins take the strain). In the short term, this means that the hit in

terms of export volumes might not be too significant, but weaker profitability in

the export sector is likely.

UK and Eurozone not overly reliant on exports to the dollar bloc

However, it is important to put these effects into context. The bulk of UK exports go to

non-dollar countries, notably the Eurozone (see table). The US accounts for 14% of UK

goods exports. This share rises to around 18% when we take into account the countries

that peg their currencies to the dollar (e.g. China), and to about 21% if we add in those

countries whose exchange rates are managed against the dollar (e.g. India).

For the Eurozone too, the dollar-zone bloc is an important but not critical export market.

The UK is the region’s largest external trading partner, followed by the US and then

Switzerland. China is 6th, although Eurozone exports to China grew 21% in the first half

of the year. In addition, the majority of Eurozone countries’ exports actually go to

other Eurozone countries. (This is the distinction between extra-Eurozone trade and

intra-Eurozone trade.) In the first half of the year, intra-Eurozone exports were €754bn

(17.2% of GDP), while extra-Eurozone exports were smaller at €728bn (16.6% of GDP).

Movements less pronounced on trade-weighted basis

An important point to bear in mind is that appreciations against the dollar do not

automatically equal appreciations against all other currencies. Although the euro has

appreciated significantly against the dollar, it has not appreciated as much against the

currencies of other leading trading partners. For example, against sterling, the euro has

traded in a narrow trading band for a number of years, even taking the latest 5%

appreciation into account (see chart 3).

This is why we need to look at the currency’s movements on a ‘trade-weighted’ basis. On

this measure, the euro is now only 5% higher now than it was on average in 2006, even

though it is 17% stronger against the dollar (see chart 4). The difference is even more

stark for the pound – the 8% appreciation against the dollar this year relative to the 2006

average contrasts with a 1% decline on a trade weighted-basis (see chart 5). This is

largely due to the pound’s depreciation against the euro.

Solid world economy also supports UK & Eurozone exports

As well as the strength of the currency it is also the strength of world demand that is key

to export performance (see chart 6). Rapidly growing economies in Asia continue to rely

on imported capital goods from Europe for their manufacturing activities. We expect the

world economy, and Asia in particular, to hold up in the months ahead. Demand for

Eurozone and UK imports should therefore remain strong, another factor mitigating the

dampening influence on exports from stronger currencies.

The appreciations against the dollar will have some negative impact and net

exports are unlikely to be the main driving force for growth in the months ahead.

Nonetheless, after accounting for export patterns and movements against the currencies

of the main trading partners, there is little reason to expect an immediate collapse of

export growth in the UK or the Eurozone.

But ‘brutal’ movement in exchange rates can disrupt the real economy

Abrupt and large currency movements can have disruptive effects if they spill-over into

domestic financial markets and from there into the real economy. The resulting

speculative activity can negatively affect bond and equity markets, raising the cost of

finance for companies and reducing household net wealth. The dollar still has many

supporters but there is a chance that the orderly decline so far turns into a rout, with

more serious consequences for the world economy than a mere rebalancing of trade

patterns (see scenario 2 on page 4).

Dollar decline fuels inflationary pressures

A more long-term concern associated with the weak dollar is the resurgence of

inflationary pressures across the globe. The Federal Reserve has not been shy in

supplying dollars to the world economy, which were mainly absorbed by countries in

East Asia running massive trade surpluses with the US. In the process, domestic liquidity

has risen dramatically in these countries, setting off inflation in asset prices and, with a

delay, in wages. This increases the local costs of production. The subsequent price

increases are now re-imported into western economies that have come to depend on

goods produced in Asia.

Where next?

Predicting future movements in currencies is an inexact science at the best of times,

especially over short horizons. This is exacerbated in the current market environment

marked by high uncertainty about the consequences of the global liquidity squeeze. In

the longer term, however, we think that the current scale of global imbalances requires

further adjustments in exchange rates – the US cannot continue indefinitely to borrow

roughly $65bn per month to finance its current account deficit. Revisiting a past episode

of global imbalances also suggests that exchange rates will play a key role in bringing

trading flows back on a sustainable trajectory (see box and chart 7). An across-theboard

bounce-back seems implausible at this point – the dollar weakness is here

to stay.

Scenario 1 – the orderly re-balancing

The dollar depreciates (on average) against the currencies of Asia and the Middle East,

all countries with sizeable trade surpluses with the US. This happens because policymakers

in these countries are no longer willing to tolerate the unwanted side-effects from

defending their pegs, i.e. higher inflation. Against the renminbi, the dollar decline gathers

pace but is still gradual in nature to soften the blow to the competitiveness of Chinese

exporters. For the oil exporting countries in the Middle East, adjustment comes in the

form of a one-off revaluation, possibly coinciding with a switch to a peg against a basket

of currencies. Completely abandoning the dollar pegs could involve incurring large

losses on foreign exchange reserves, a prospect too daunting for these countries.

As the dollar adjusts against the pegged currencies, upward pressure on the

major floating currencies eases. While remaining strong by historic standards, the

euro and the pound retreat below $1.40 and $2.00 respectively. Under this scenario,

growth eases somewhat in the countries with appreciating currencies (albeit from very

high levels), while a slightly weaker currency stimulates activity in the UK and the

Eurozone. Overall, the global economy continues to perform well, and a recession is

avoided. We believe that this is both the most desirable and likely outcome.

[Naam]

Scenario 2 – the run on the dollar

The countries that currently peg their currencies to the dollar defend their exchange rate

regime ferociously, disallowing any appreciation. With the dollar unable to adjust where it

most needs to, it continues to adjust where it can. The euro and the pound soar against

the dollar, climbing as high as $1.70 and $2.30 respectively. These exchange rates

would be roughly consistent with a 5% appreciation on a trade-weighted basis.

According to research by the ECB, this would shave 0.4 percentage points off growth in

the Eurozone in each of the next three years, a hard blow to an already slowing

economy. The hit to the UK economy is 0.3 percentage points lower growth per year

based on a similar estimation exercise.

Moreover, the dollar rout generates negative momentum for the US economy, leading

investors to take money out of the US capital markets. With bond prices sliding, yields

rise. This significantly hampers corporate and household expenditure plans as most

long-term investment projects, including mortgages, are priced as a premium on

government bond yields. To make matters even worse, plunging stock prices reduces

households’ net wealth (financial assets make up more than 60% of total household

assets in US), which drags private consumption.

The rest of the world suffers too as the negative momentum ripples across the global

economy in the second round. Stock and bond markets in the rest of the world display a

very high degree of correlation with US capital markets. Therefore, a fall in global

investment and private consumption spending follows the asset price plunge in the US.

World trade also drops significantly. Central Banks in Asia and the Middle East incur

huge looses on their stock of dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves. This

scenario entails high odds that the US enters a recession, and significantly slowing

global growth as a result (see quote). While conceivable, we do not think that the

world economy is likely to cast a vote of no-confidence in the dollar. No country

has an interest in seeing this scenario materialise.

Conclusions

In a significantly more open world economy (see chart 8), exchange rates are a key

driver for export performance and economic prosperity. This makes it almost inevitable

that policy-makers disagree about the level of ‘fair exchange rates’. Exchange rates that

are favourable for the export sector in one country, say China, are almost by definition

less supportive of export activities in other regions, say the Eurozone. Quotes are formed

in foreign exchange markets, which are huge, with average daily turnover now standing

at $3.2 trillion (see chart 9). Speculative momentum and short-term financial flows are

therefore important in determining exchange rate levels.

Some countries try to insulate their currencies from short-term financial pressure and do

not let their currencies float freely (see Appendix . However, this strategy can put

severe strains on the domestic economy, as either inflationary pressures build up or

domestic corporates are cut off from international financial markets. In the past, this has

led in most cases to countries moving to more flexible exchange rate regimes (including

periodic revaluations). We expect this to happen sooner rather than later for the

countries currently pegging their currencies against the dollar (as outlined in scenario 1),

especially as they run significant trade surpluses vis-à-vis the US.

For the free-floating currencies, we expect recent exchange rate volatility to continue into

2008. This would actually represent a return to a more normal market, rather than

anything out of the ordinary (Chart 10). However, if the dollar is unable to adjust against

those currencies it most ‘needs’ to (as outlined in scenario 2), we could see volatility

returning to levels last seen at the beginning of the decade.

[Naam]

Primer on exchange rates

What moves currencies?

As for any other traded asset, supply and demand determine the price for

currencies, i.e. the exchange rate. In foreign exchange markets where currencies

are traded, supply and demand are mainly influenced by three factors:

international trade, relative rates of return and exchange rate intervention.

The link between international trade and exchange rates is straightforward. The

UK currently runs a current account surplus with the US, i.e. the UK imports more

from the US than vice versa. All else equal, this means that the US must transfer

more pounds to the UK than the UK pays dollars to the US. This leads to excess

demand for pounds and therefore to a sterling appreciation against the dollar.

However, the role of trade in explaining currency movements is relatively minor.

The average daily turnover in international foreign exchange markets is $3.2trn,

but at most 17% can be linked to international trade in goods and services. The

overwhelming majority of foreign exchange transaction is financially

motivated. International investors are investing across many currencies in search

of high rates of return. An important gauge in identifying attractive currencies from

a financial perspective is the short-term interest rate differential. When short-term

rates are higher in the UK than in US (and inflation runs at similar levels), as it is

currently the case, pound deposits are relatively more attractive. As investors take

advantage of the higher interest rate, the pound appreciates.

Finally, outright intervention by central banks affects exchange rates. Two

motivations for these interventions are worth highlighting. In an effort to insulate

their large export sectors from foreign competition in third markets, governments

in developing countries have often intervened in foreign exchange markets to

keep their currency at low levels (e.g. China). This makes their exports cheaper

and therefore more competitive. The other motivation is to eliminate exchange

rate risk, which is particularly important for oil-producing countries as the price of

oil is denominated in dollars.

How does this help to understand what is happening to the dollar?

The US has been running large current account deficits for more than a decade. It

currently stands at almost $800bn, or 5.6% of GDP. This creates a structurally

strong supply of dollars in foreign exchange markets.

Until recently, this supply was roughly matched by investor’s appetite for dollar

denominated assets, preventing a more rapid decline. (Appetite was strong in

spite of exceptionally low real rates of return on dollar-denominated bonds in

recent years). However, with the Federal Reserve slashing rates by 75bps since

September, the attractiveness of US bonds has dwindled further. There are also

indications that international investors are starting to diversify their asset portfolio

into other currencies, notably the euro (see chart 11). This holds particularly true

for Asian and OPEC central banks, which hold the bulk of US assets abroad. A

large exposure to these assets leaves them vulnerable to a weaker US economy

and significant depreciations of the dollar. The net result of a diminished

willingness to buy new dollar assets and of portfolio reshufflings is downward

pressure on the dollar.

The dollar decline has been asymmetric. The euro, the pound and the Canadian

dollar shoulder most of the burden of appreciation. This is because the dollar

cannot adjust where it most needs to – the majority of Asian and oil-exporting

countries with large bilateral trade surpluses with the US peg or manage their

currencies vis-à-vis the dollar (see chart 12). Instead of letting their currencies

appreciate, Central Banks in these countries are soaking up the excess supply of

dollars, leading to unprecedented reserve accumulation (see chart 13). However,

the pace of dollar accumulation has probably slowed in the recent months and will

continue to do so as Central Banks gradually allow their currencies to strengthen

against the dollar.

Bretton Woods II (the dollar bloc)

Pegged against $ Status

China Crawling $-peg. Continues to appreciate – albeit

very slowly.

Egypt Appreciated since August 2007.

Hong Kong Inflationary pressures. Under speculative pressure.

Likely to widen zone in which the currency can

fluctuate in 2008/09.

Oman Intact.

Qatar Inflationary pressures.

Saudi Arabia Interest differential with US widening. Inflationary

pressures. Large holdings of $-assets, resulting in

significant capital losses if revaluation occurs.

Unlikely to come off $-peg.

United Arab Emirates Attempts to diversify official foreign exchange

reserves. Inflationary pressures. Likely candidate to

drop hard $-peg.

Venezuela Intact.

Vietnam Depreciated slightly in 2007.

Managed against $

Argentina Depreciated in 2007.

India Appreciated significantly in 2007.

Kuwait Switched from hard $-peg to peg against a

currency basket in May 2007.

Malaysia Appreciated in 2007.

Nigeria Appreciated in 2007.

Russia Appreciated in 2007.

Thailand Appreciated in 2007.

[chiang mai]

Thread killer Naam strikes again! A good read though, what was the source?

[Naam]

Thread killer Naam strikes again! A good read though, what was the source?

= Credit Suisse

[tattoodrob]

The Big question is:

WILL THE LADIES IN PATTAYA adjust their rates to compensate for GPB deflation?

maybe if they knew what GPB was....even im confused........does it stand for General Penis Boner deflation ...if it does then im sure there could be a discount negotiated unless the GPB goes up again.

[tattoodrob]

I'm all for an increase in the GBP if it gets rid of some of the tattooed football hooligans and other assorted trash on budget holiday.

only the hooligans and trash on hols......what about us tattood hooligan trash that live here...ooops i mean what about the ones that live here......

seriously it wouldnt affect holiday makers too much as they spend stupid amounts on booze/birds as it is .............spoiling it for the rest of us keeniows living here.

[tattoodrob]

im no expert..........really.............but hasnt it been going up and down for years like this.of course we always want it up above 70........i also want to win the lottery....etc etc