Peak Oil, What Happens When We Run Out Of Oil?

[mixed]

There are many ppl who believe we may have reached the peak of crude oil production. This combined with an ever increasing demand means a grim future awaits a world that is addicted to oil.

Alternative fuel options such as nuclear, solar, wind, bio-fuels etc. would only provide a tiny fraction of the of the energy supplied by oil.

What will be the impract on Thailand? Is the country better of because it's a warm climate with plenty of sun and a largely rural population that could revert back to traditional methods? Or is the country to poor to afford the expensive alternatives?

[lukey1979]

There are many ppl who believe we may have reached the peak of crude oil production. This combined with an ever increasing demand means a grim future awaits a world that is addicted to oil.

Alternative fuel options such as nuclear, solar, wind, bio-fuels etc. would only provide a tiny fraction of the of the energy supplied by oil.

What will be the impract on Thailand? Is the country better of because it's a warm climate with plenty of sun and a largely rural population that could revert back to traditional methods? Or is the country to poor to afford the expensive alternatives?

Its gonna turn out Pretty much like the movie Mad Max i think. All of us living in Isaan will manage pretty well, The high society city slickers in Bangkok will become poorer and the rural areas will be the most exclusive places to live. Land prices will go up. Happy days are ahead!

Edited January 14, 2008 by lukey1979

[ludosiam]

Some of these thoughts are around in my head since a while as well. First of all, Thailand has a more livable climate than northern countries such as Russia, Norway etc....and plenty of land to produce food from, some right now being converted into fuel. Once these bio fuel industries are able to work more cost effective and with higher yields Thailand might become a highly standardized country. Hope that will be after I'm gone though, I like simple standards combined with friendlier people better.

[Sakeopete]

Oil companies have been investing into alternative energy sources for years. Most don't call themselves oil companies rather energy companies the only thing holding back the technologies is demand. Crude oil will not run out before the demand does once the effect of global warming has a serious impact on consumers lives. Even then developing countries will provide demand as economics will always be put above the environment much like the west during its industrialization. Thailand will slowly adapt as will the rest of the world our biggest worry will be regional military conflicts as life become more difficult in the future and resources like water become scarce.

[mixed]

Interesting to see the optimism. What do you think the rural populations will do for electricity? How will they afford to run motorbikes and farm equipment? What sort of yields could farmers expect with most work done by hand and no chemical fertilizers?

It may be worth looking at Cuba, which had to suddenly had to cope with very little oil when the Soviet Union collapsed. The documentary A Crude Awakening is worth a look.

[Prakanong]

Oil companies have been investing into alternative energy sources for years. Most don't call themselves oil companies rather energy companies the only thing holding back the technologies is demand. Crude oil will not run out before the demand does once the effect of global warming has a serious impact on consumers lives. Even then developing countries will provide demand as economics will always be put above the environment much like the west during its industrialization. Thailand will slowly adapt as will the rest of the world our biggest worry will be regional military conflicts as life become more difficult in the future and resources like water become scarce.

Exactly - the nostradamus type soothayers have been harpng on about the end of oil since the 70's.

There is a very good podcast from the "National Economist Club" available by a oil analyst that I was listening too at lunchtime about oil demand and production.

[TommyGun]

When the oil runs out, the powers of that time will surely find another thing to fight about. As for global warming, yes it's happening, and so called footprint is contributing. I'm just wating for the time when the goverments admit that the main cause is the suns expansion as it did over 500 years ago when the earth reached it's hotest time. While ever they can get money from us, they will.

[esprit]

There never will be an energy crisis if bullsh_t could be harnessed.

[mixed]

Oil companies have been investing into alternative energy sources for years. Most don't call themselves oil companies rather energy companies the only thing holding back the technologies is demand.

Oil is an extremely potent form of energy, what other energy sources could be powerfully enough to replace it?

[mixed]

Exactly - the nostradamus type soothayers have been harpng on about the end of oil since the 70's.

And ppl in Texas never thought they would run out.

There is a very good podcast from the "National Economist Club" available by a oil analyst that I was listening too at lunchtime about oil demand and production.

An oil-analyst, is that someone in the oil industry telling us that oil won't run out (infinite supply?). If this is the case why has the oil industry been investing in alternatives for so long?

Where are the new oil fields? Oil exploration technolgies have improved greatly, but no huge reserves have been found.

Ppl can argue about global warming, but with oil it's not if but when.

[Naam]

Oil companies have been investing into alternative energy sources for years. Most don't call themselves oil companies rather energy companies the only thing holding back the technologies is demand.

Oil is an extremely potent form of energy, what other energy sources could be powerfully enough to replace it?

the dangerous one, i.e. nuclear power. that's the only alternative for the future. no matter what the bleeding anti-nuke hearts are telling you.

[mixed]

the dangerous one, i.e. nuclear power. that's the only alternative for the future. no matter what the bleeding anti-nuke hearts are telling you.

The big danger with nuclear is the waste, they still haven't found a good way to get rid of it.

It would be a massive task to build all the reactors and then it's predicted the uranium would only last for 20 years.

[Naam]

Where are the new oil fields? Oil exploration technolgies have improved greatly, but no huge reserves have been found.

huge (not yet developed) reserves of oil shale rock exist in the United States and Canada and billions of tons of so-called "orimulsion" can be pumped in Venezuela when normal crude production will not meet demand. deriving crude from oil shale is already done in Canada in an economical way and Venezuela exports since years cheap orimulsion to China where it is used to generate power (although it has a devastating environmental effect).

[Gary A]

Fortunately the world has a LOT of time to develop alternative sources. There is still more oil in the ground than what has ever been taken out. Most countries have shale oil or oil sands. It costs more to extract it and it doesn't make very good gasoline but it makes VERY good diesel fuel. Instead of the tree huggers fighting progress, they should have been pushing nuclear plants.

[Naam]

the dangerous one, i.e. nuclear power. that's the only alternative for the future. no matter what the bleeding anti-nuke hearts are telling you.

The big danger with nuclear is the waste, they still haven't found a good way to get rid of it.

It would be a massive task to build all the reactors and then it's predicted the uranium would only last for 20 years.

i agree that nuclear waste is indeed a huge problem. as far as the supply of uranium is concerned i don't want to engage in a technical dispute. reason: i studied quantum and nuclear physics. perhaps you google (keyword "fast breeder") to get some not to scientific answers which prove that lack of uranium is not a problem at all. fast breeders do already exist in various countries and they work efficiently with a virtual never ending supply of "raw material".

the problem with fast breeders is not the waste but the tremendous danger in case a Chernobyl like accident occurs. Plutonium is extremely dangerous and if a fast breeder goes bust Chernobyl would look in comparison like an accident on a highway in which a few people are killed.

[GuestHouse]

And while everyone has got their eye on oil, the real issue is water.

But while the panic is on oil and prices/investment are through the roof I'll stick with the Oil and Gas industry.

Bad gusy maybe, but not as bad as the water companies are going to seem when there aint no water to drink.

[mixed]

huge (not yet developed) reserves of oil shale rock exist in the United States and Canada and billions of tons of so-called "orimulsion" can be pumped in Venezuela when normal crude production will not meet demand. deriving crude from oil shale is already done in Canada in an economical way and Venezuela exports since years cheap orimulsion to China where it is used to generate power (although it has a devastating environmental effect).

Thanks for the info, although I don't think huge reserves of crude have been found. The fact that they are begin to tap other sources would indicate that the we've reached the peak of crude.

How large are these fields in relation to the middle east? How long would they last with the ever-increasing demand for oil? What price per barrel would oil need to reach to make them economically viable (ignoring the economic impact).

[Naam]

Instead of the tree huggers fighting progress, they should have been pushing nuclear plants.

spoken from my heart Gary! the tree huggers in my home country Germany achieved that a number of nuclear power plants were shut down, some on which billions were spent never completed (among them a fast breeder which was ready to go into operation) and that more will be shut down.

what the tree huggers don't tell the population is that the french-german border is lined with french nuclear plants (more under construction) and that air movement in continental Europe is 90% from a western direction. one nuclear plant was shut down on the german side of the border, another one is in operation 35km away in France. in essence = bullsh*t² !

[mixed]

And while everyone has got their eye on oil, the real issue is water.

True, with high rainfall how does Thailand stand in the future? In the rainy season it's easy to collect enough water...

In Australia they're building desalination plants. In Victoria they've reduced water consumption by 16% in a single year.

Reducing demand is the best way to counter coming environmental problems. It's a real shame that everything comes down to debates about 'greenies'. Whatever your politics are, waste seems stupid, whether it's oil or water. Nonetheless we seem to have developed incredibly wasteful societies. Storing water or using grey water for the garden is simple, as is driving economical vehicles.

It's interesting all the fuss is in the west, most Thais wouldn't know about these problems, yet here you'll see plenty of cars running on gas and biofuels are available.

[Naam]

How large are these fields in relation to the middle east? How long would they last with the ever-increasing demand for oil? What price per barrel would oil need to reach to make them economically viable (ignoring the economic impact).

presently the explorations are estimates only and not too reliable. for more information take a look at:

http://www.absenergyresearch.com/energy-ma...ands-orimulsion

[GuestHouse]

True, with high rainfall how does Thailand stand in the future? In the rainy season it's easy to collect enough water...

Its not the rain falling out of the sky that is a problem in Thailand/SEA but what China is doing to the flow on the river Mehkong.

[GuestHouse]

It's interesting all the fuss is in the west, most Thais wouldn't know about these problems, yet here you'll see plenty of cars running on gas and biofuels are available.

That has nothing to do with individual consumers demanding cleaner/greener fuels and everything to do with the sources of Thailand's energy, government policies and the buisiness plans of the energy companies.

As for the 'Anti-Greens (Tree Huggers)' - I think I can make a good case to demonstrate that green policies have on the whole been good for the world's ecconomies, even that asside, I know few people who do not now see the desirability in following most of the core recommendations of the 'Green Lobby' in their daily lives.

[HDRIDER]

There are many ppl who believe we may have reached the peak of crude oil production. This combined with an ever increasing demand means a grim future awaits a world that is addicted to oil.

Alternative fuel options such as nuclear, solar, wind, bio-fuels etc. would only provide a tiny fraction of the of the energy supplied by oil.

What will be the impract on Thailand? Is the country better of because it's a warm climate with plenty of sun and a largely rural population that could revert back to traditional methods? Or is the country to poor to afford the expensive alternatives?

Hi Mixed

Don’t you worry too much, it’s not going to happen in yours or my time, there is still a lot of oil believe me, i have been working in oil & gas for many many years, when the oil was 26$ a barrel they was still finding oil but guess what, we just plugged the hole, they did not want to get the oil up be course of the low oil prices.....now they are returning to ALL these holes. And they have found oil even deeper now, but they won’t tell you, why should they.

[PhilHarries]

Oil will not run out just like turning off a tap. What will happen is that the price will escalate such as to make the marginal fields economic for extraction. The price will be such that ordinary people in many developing countries won't be able to afford gasoline and diesel and thus will have to rely on alternatives for transport. We might see a decline in unnecessary travel and some of you might get your wish that the tattood beer gut brigade will not be able to afford their Pattaya holidays. When I say "we" what we are really looking at is probably our children's children.

Another point of conflict will come when supplies start to be restricted and eyes will be cast over the vast reserves of coal, gas and oil in wilderness areas like Alaska, the Arctic and Antarctic. I am afraid the tree huggers are going to be up against it when that happens.

[mixed]

I wasn't saying we would run out, more that we've reached peak supply. Are you saying we haven't reached peak supply? If we haven't reached peak, then you would expect oil prices to drop. I can't see this happening.

[SoCal]

I can't see the price of oil dropping (at least not drastically), but it has less to do with supply, and more to do with interest groups.

[cclub75]

And while everyone has got their eye on oil, the real issue is water.

But while the panic is on oil and prices/investment are through the roof I'll stick with the Oil and Gas industry.

Bad gusy maybe, but not as bad as the water companies are going to seem when there aint no water to drink.

The problem is different... With enough energy, it's possible to get drinking water from sea water. And we don't have shortage of it.

Therefore, the core of all our problems is and remains energy.

[naka]

So, It's Isaan or Cuba is it ? Darn ! ... How much is a one way ticket to Cuba anyway.

Naka.

Edited January 14, 2008 by naka

[Ricardo]

I would also suggest that, as the oil began to run low, Thailand might look closer at its own resources. Many leases on-shore are held by the military, through the Defence Energy Department, which has been less-than-normally-efficient in discovering & developing oil-fields in Fang, for example.

A Canadian company was proposing in 2006 to take over the operation, redrill & redevelop the fields there, and then search more widely on the DED-leases, the whole thing to be self-financing, by their calculations. This was before the recent increases in world prices.

Who knows what else might be out there ? Until they look properly...

[HS Mauberley]

Peak oil means increasingly sever supply constraints, not ‘the end of oil’.

Nuclear – Good luck retro-fitting that reactor to your car. Or retro-fitting a world infrastructure based on liquid fuels to one based on electricity or hydrogen. (And even if you did, the chances of finding the materials required to build that many fuel cells or that many batteries are round about zero.)

Tar – It’ll cushion the blow but the quantity of water required to ‘process’ this stuff is astronomical and the energy returned on energy invested is very low. It’s true that there’s an awful lot of the stuff but the net energy available is very low.

New discoveries – Maybe but look at the hype about Kashagan or Jack2. Or the recent Brazilian find (Tuppy?). Compared to the super-giants which the world economy relies on, these are minute. Discoveries peaked 40 years ago and you’d have to be clinically insane to think that that trend is magically going to reverse. Even off-setting depletion (North Sea is falling at something like 8% pa and Cantarell is dropping through the floor) is becoming difficult.

Anyone interested in this should have a look at www.theoildrum.com (some very good technical analysis of field depletion and the economic consequences), www.peakoil.com, or for the seriously paranoid, http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net and http://www.peakoilstore.com/forum. There are very good reason to think that peak is upon us (though for obvious reasons, you can’t be sure until some time after the event) or (in the best case) will arrive within a decade and if this is so, there just won’t be time to mitigate the worst consequences (have a look for the Hirsch report to see what the US government thinks about this.)