Peak Oil, What Happens When We Run Out Of Oil?

[Gary A]

Without oil as a lubricant the world would, literally, grind to a halt. Then there's plastics. Just walk into any supermarket and strip away all the plastic in your imagination. Doesn't leave much. Ok, we all managed before plastics, granted. But then a lot more food was grown locally and eaten when still fresh. Can you imagine how the really big cities are going to cope just feeding themselves every day?

Steam engines were invented before oil based lubricants were available. Hemp based lubricants were used from the earliest days of engines until the 1940's, even in airplane engines. And except a few very specialized applications, hemp based lubricants can replace most lubricants used today.

Hemp and other organic fibers can be used in place of a number of different plastics.

They are more durable and more environmentally friendly.

Hemp was the world's number 1 fiber until the invention of nylon.

Hemp paper can be used to replace a number of different plastic packaging.

The very best lubricating oil available today is synthetic oil. They are also making high grade plastic from soybeans. Purdue University in Indiana, US spent 22 years developing an enzyme that will break down cellulose into basic sugar. Where was the ethanol plant to use this technology built? CANADA. Why? The ethanol plant is currently producing alcohol from wheat straw. Why did the US pay millions of dollars to study ethanol only to find out (WRONG) that it cost more conventional energy that it produced? This study was happening at the same time as Brazil was selling ethanol for half the price of gasoline and Brazil was able to stop importing oil. Something stinks in the USA.

Before I moved to Thailand I had never seen oil palm trees. I was examining some of the large berries that had fallen off a tree. I asked my then girlfriend what they used the berries for. She picked some up and took them back to our room. She crushed the berries, put them in a bowl and asked for my lighter. I was amazed at how long they burned. She really had no idea of the commercial value but told me that in the old days before they had electricity they burned these berries for light. Has anyone noticed that in many places cooking oil is now cheaper than diesel fuel?

[thaihome]

....Unfortunately OPEC will eventually lower oil prices to make the new processes too expensive and many projects will likely be stopped and forgotten. Governments around the world will have to tax fossil fuel to fund and encourage new alternative fuels and to foil OPEC's master plan. The US is especially guilty because politicians don't have the guts to do what must be done.

...

It is worth noting that OPEC produces only about 40% of the world's oil. They do not set prices. They attempt to influence through announced production quotas, which are routinely ignored by themselves.

TH

Edited January 16, 2008 by thaihome

[Smithson]

I do agree with a previous poster that many overlook the fact that we rely on oil for a lot more than merely its use as a fuel. Without oil as a lubricant the world would, literally, grind to a halt. Then there's plastics. Just walk into any supermarket and strip away all the plastic in your imagination. Doesn't leave much.

We truly are a world addicted to oil. Even if we you don't use that much in your personal life, take a look at where you work. This is why people are talking about a huge depression.

Ok, we all managed before plastics, granted. But then a lot more food was grown locally and eaten when still fresh. Can you imagine how the really big cities are going to cope just feeding themselves every day?

I'm interested in the implications for Thailand, a country where food can be grown year round and there's still plenty of agricultural knowledge among the people. I see a return to houses/communities growing and trading food. Traditionally building and other products were made from renewable materials. Bio-fuels can also be grown here and there's plenty of rainfall (for the time being at least). There's also plenty of sun for solar.

I'm not suggesting the place will become a green utopia overnight, but maybe Thailand is in a better position than cooler countries that are used to a higher standard of living and therefore more dependent on oil. The situation for expats over here is another thing, as a lot of blame with be directed at foreigners.

Edited January 16, 2008 by Smithson

[gregb]

It's actually pretty simple as far as fossil oil. Just Google oils sands and shale oil and you will find PROVEN reserves that are many times higher than all the oil that has ever been pumped out of mother earth since we started using oil. No wolf there.

Please don't make confusing statements that you haven't researched. It is *NOT* simple. It is very complex, hence, one of the reasons most people don't understand.

Does anyone remember the Dilbert cartoon, where the pointy haired boss states "Anything I don't understand must be easy." This is a perfect representation of anyone who says that the coming energy depletion can be solved. It's not simple, and it can't (at least, not without a massive depopulation of the planet.)

Proven reserves are not what is important. If you are dying of thirst, and I have a tank of water and tell you there is enough inside to last for 7 lifetimes, BUT you can only have 1 drop per day. Guess what? You're gonna die. Proven reserves are meaningless and only serve to confuse the issue.

At issue, and the only thing that counts, are in place mechanisms to tap the energy flows of solar, gravitational, and nuclear power. Anyone who doubts the seriousness of this problem, do an experiment for me:

Take 1 year off work. Learn about how a tar sands or an oil shale refinery works. Learn about all the equipment necessary to set one up. Now understand that all the tar sands refineries ever built in the history of the world can process less than 1 million barrels per day. The same value for oil shale is exactly 0. Your task is to build enough refineries EACH YEAR to address just 2% of oil depletion, or somewhere around twice the refinery capacity than has ever been built in all of history EVERY YEAR.

Oops! Not enough natural gas for that. dam_n. OK, first we have to build nuclear reactors to get the hydrogen and process heat for the tar sands refinery. Oops! We can't find qualified contractors to build enough nuclear reactors. OK. So we train some more nuke guys. Now we're ready. Let's start to build. Oops! There aren't enough factories building subassemblies needed to construct our nuclear reactors. They're all backordered for years. So we have to build those factories first, and on and on and on, down to the people producing the stainless steel bolts and rubber washers.

This is complex stuff. IT WILL TAKE DECADES OR CENTURIES TO SUBSTITUTE ANYTHING FOR OIL PEOPLE!!!!! Wake up. This crisis will kill you because you don't want to understand and you want to rely on trite statements like "technology will save us" or "the market will save us" or "the stoneage didn't end for lack of stones". These are all meaningless.

Energy depletion is here now. Your way of life will be ending soon. The current mode of civilization will be collapsing just as hundreds of civilizations have before us for similar reasons. Start thinking for yourselves. Do you honestly believe the Romans sitting around 1500 years ago wanted their civilization to crash? Why do you think you are different?

Answer: we're no different, and our civilization will crash too. The writing is already on the wall.

[Smithson]

This crisis will kill you because you don't want to understand and you want to rely on trite statements like "technology will save us" or "the market will save us"

You forgot my favorite one "I just can't see it happening"

"the stoneage didn't end for lack of stones"

Actually, I think something different is meant by this statement, to me it says "just because we're running out of oil doesn't mean an alternative will appear."

Edited January 16, 2008 by Smithson

[jumnien]

We are not running out of oil. We are running out of cheap oil. Get the price to $300 per barrel and watch the demand ease and an increase in the economic viability of alternative fuels. Things are looking a lot better now than just a few years ago when oil was depressingly priced at $15 per barrel. Progress has been quick to come.

[PeaceBlondie]

I'll vote with gregb on the issue of complexity. You cannot build new refineries in the developed world; you can only enlarge existing ones. It's extremely difficult and time consuming to build more nuclear power stations. Anything that's pure theory now is decades away from being adopted on a large scale. The Wankel engine is not commonplace; they've been working on solar cells and wind energy for about 30 years, and it's only beginning to become advanced technology. The entire civilization is based upon the use of fossil fuels.

[JimsKnight]

We band of merry few posters are surrounded by doom-sayers and grim pessimists.

Of course there will be some tighter times, but it's all part of the challenges that will be overcome.

A lot of you haven't seen what engineering feats and marvels that can be performed to get that oil and gas extracted.

We just had the Buzzard Platform (North Sea) come on-line recently (A three-platform oil and gas installation).

Guesthouse excluded, If all you doom-mongering, the-end-is-nigh grim-tooths went offshore and saw the new methods, improved technology and maximised extraction (both oil and gas separation modules) etc you really would see how this can prolong our reliance on oil and gas until the next wave of energy production plants comes on-line (which will take decades granted).

We have enough time, energy and resources to make a mockery of this so-called 'Peak Oil' calamity that seems to be rattling some folk.

In fifty years time folk will look back at the 'Peak Oil' hysteria and think 'What a bunch of pussycats!'

[canuckamuck]

100 years ago steam power was king.

Today that leading edge technology is considered quaint.

in 1990 very few people owned home computers. Today my ipod holds more data capacity then the entire apollo program.

Everything about our age suggests we are rapidly altering what is conceivable for man.

7 tenths of the earth is covered in a massive fuel tank of hydrogen and oxygen. The air we breathe is manly nitrogen. Eventually power will just be part of infrastructure like roads, it will be free everywhere, paid for by taxes. We have a big issue now with the oil cartels, but it can't last forever. New technlogy will escape from countries that suffer from the oil manipulation. Someone will figure out how to make obscene amounts of money from non oil sources. Then the whole house of cards will come tumbling down. It is only a matter of time.

[samran]

it will be a simple financial decision. When oil hits a certain price, other alternative energies will become economical, whether they be wind, solar or others like Coal to Oil, natural gas turbines or a range of other things.

The high prices will make our innovators come out with more energy efficient products, and make us more energy efficient ourselves.

Just becuase oil has been the 'magic bullet' in the past, doesn't mean we will continue to have one fuel source as our main energy supply. In future it will be an increasing mix of things, oil being one of them.

[jumnien]

If oil was running out, believe me, the oil companies would not be all but giving it away. At current prices, a liter of quality gasoline isn't much more than a liter of quality water at 7/11. Most people in Thailand probably spend more on their phone bills than on fuel. When oil begins to get scarce you will see it start to become expensive unless demand is curbed by cheaper alternatives before that happens. If oil was about to run out, the bastard airline companies wouldn't have just ordered the most jets ever in a year.

[mixed]

it will be a simple financial decision. When oil hits a certain price, other alternative energies will become economical, whether they be wind, solar or others like Coal to Oil, natural gas turbines or a range of other things.

The high prices will make our innovators come out with more energy efficient products, and make us more energy efficient ourselves.

Just becuase oil has been the 'magic bullet' in the past, doesn't mean we will continue to have one fuel source as our main energy supply. In future it will be an increasing mix of things, oil being one of them.

Simple seems a bit of an understatement. The sooner we realize a problem exists the better of we are, although it seems we have left things very late.

[LinkPopularity]

shoot all the extreme lefties and oil will drop 80% in price ...

a better question would be; when will we run out of irrational behavior? dam_n, they piss me off ...

water, oil etc is not the problem, mental retarded softies are the only real problem ... terrorists or greenies are suffering from the same kind of mental illness, that's all ... nothing to worry about, we'll fix it !

[steveromagnino]

This is complex stuff. IT WILL TAKE DECADES OR CENTURIES TO SUBSTITUTE ANYTHING FOR OIL PEOPLE!!!!! Wake up. This crisis will kill you because you don't want to understand and you want to rely on trite statements like "technology will save us" or "the market will save us" or "the stoneage didn't end for lack of stones". These are all meaningless.

Energy depletion is here now.

I am an ex pricing manager in a deregulated industry; we had similar issues to peak oil in load management, so our main monopoly supplier introduced a simple mechanism; if you ordered more than your annual specified peak per delivery station, you paid a penalty of 60X per unit over the peak, per day.

That meant, energy was being delivered sold to the customer at say $8, with cost of gas $3, distribution through our pipes say average $2.5 and network fee from the monopoly supplier of $2.50.

Get it wrong, and suddenly cost price went up from $7 to $155.50. Selling energy at $8, and buying it at $155.50 sent a bit of a message to us as the energy retailer. So we started sending a message in our pricing contract.... you buy at this load profile, or YOU pay 60X penalty (a pass through).

Strange how easy it was to get customers to do something, once the pricing changed. Same thing happened when the country concerned didn't have any more places for hydro (almost free power) - the next step up the supply price curve was geothermal and then coal - big steps up too.

And the oil pricing is going to climb and climb and climb....well travel and gas guzzling cars and plastic bags and so on will just become more and more of a luxury item....like eat cavier or truffles or whatever. Lifestyles will change. Some companies will go bust.

It isn't going to be easy, and some people will get burned on the way. it could and will cause global economic issues. It will also require a market free from distortions; something the USA painfully learned in the ENRON aftermath (their deregulation was not quite as free market as other countries).

New technologies coming on will be too slow, will be very stop start and won't solve the problems straight away. BUt for say vehicle fuel and power generation, other fossil fuels can step up and the infrastructure is not so tough to sort out quickly e.g. NGVs - the intermediate step rather than the full on step to fuel cell cars or whatever (which are miiiiiiiiiiles away). Coal electricity generation is here now.

Same goes for water. The real issue comes when the poor get hit hard enough and don't have the ability to pay more as the western countries are willing to just outspend them.

Then...maybe you'll see wars and fights. But you see them now in Africa, Somalia, etc - no one cares, we are still rich enough to goof off and drink lattes at Starbucks and use toilet paper.

I think we'll get by. no idea how shooting people will make oil prices drop 80%; I like this high oil price; fewer people will drive smelly cars, and more people will start walking. Girls who walk are slimmer.

And that is a good thing.

Edited January 16, 2008 by steveromagnino

[Gary A]

Finally someone is actively working on a project to generate electricity from the tides. Pacific Gas and Electric will put water turbines under the Golden Gate bridge. They will be far enough under water as to not affect navigation and there will be no visible sign that they are even there. They are also studying wave generation but that doesn't look nearly as promising. As long as oil prices stay up there will be MANY neat projects like this.

[Naam]

shoot all the extreme lefties and oil will drop 80% in price ...

a better question would be; when will we run out of irrational behavior? dam_n, they piss me off ...

water, oil etc is not the problem, mental retarded softies are the only real problem ... terrorists or greenies are suffering from the same kind of mental illness, that's all ... nothing to worry about, we'll fix it !

do not worry my friend. all earthlings who were ever abducted by aliens survived and got well again. you will too!

[Spee]

I think we'll get by. no idea how shooting people will make oil prices drop 80%;

Agreed, of course we will get by. We always have. We always will.

All these nitwits who talk about doing radical things to reduce oil prices are also chicken-littles who believe the urban myth that "big oil" sets the price of oil and has the control of the world at its fingertips. Oil speculators in oil futures markets set the price of oil. With that being the case, there is one and only one way to reduce the price of oil. That is to improve the general stability of the world, the oil producing regions in particular, and to get the leftist greenies out of the picture so people can mine the vast north american oil reserves instead of using politics to hold people hostage. IN other words, make the world more stable and enable known supply to be harvested and the profits in the speculative market will dwindle and the price of oil futures will fall through the bottom.

Other than the speculative markets, what really makes oil expensive? Two simple things. Oppresive government taxation and the cost of transporting vast quantities of oil from point A to point B. If governments halved their tax burden and oil could be mined closer to home so that it could be automatically piped to refineries instead of being shipped from halfway across the world. These things alone would knock the price at the pump in half.

As for all the doom and gloom peak oil mythologists, you can all make your life very simple. Stop being hypocrites. Stop all use of oil and petroleum based products. Bury your head in the sand and resume the stone age lifestyle. Have at it and have fun. You won't bother me a bit. Just stay the <deleted> off your high horse, don't try to mandate how you feel other people should live, and let me and others like me enjoy my right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

[Chloe82]

Finally someone is actively working on a project to generate electricity from the tides. Pacific Gas and Electric will put water turbines under the Golden Gate bridge. They will be far enough under water as to not affect navigation and there will be no visible sign that they are even there. They are also studying wave generation but that doesn't look nearly as promising. As long as oil prices stay up there will be MANY neat projects like this.

Another great British invention.

[plachon]

The serfs and minions of the Empire of Oil seem to be coming out of the ether thick and furious on your thread M. Must be the Middle East - Thailand nexus and the US-Canada True Believers in Madame Liberty built on the Great American Dream that does it.

Huh! You been watching Al Jazeera again?

No. But so what if I had? Al Jazeera presents as balanced a picture of world news as any US mainstream news programme, if not more so.

The naysayers of oil finiteness clearly haven't read Jeremy Leggett's books "The Carbon War" and "Half Gone". If they had, I doubt their responses would be so dismissive about the possibility that Peak Oil production may already be upon us or just around the corner. And when it comes, as Leonard Cohen prophesied: "Things are going to slide, Slide in all directions; there won't be anything left you can measure anymore."

So what makes Jeremy Leggett correct more than anyone else? He's the same as all the other doomsayers, predict the worst case to sell books (when has good news ever sold any publication?) and reap the return safe in the knowledge that when all the predictions fail to materialise most likely nobody will remember your words.

Because of the respect he gets from observers in govt and civvy street, as a scientist, author and commentator on energy policy and the impending oil crisis.

Don't forget "early toppers" predict an oil topping point between 2005-2010 i.e. just about now!

Who the <deleted> are "early toppers"?

"Early toppers" - a growing group who believes that oil reserves left amount to one trillion barrels or less. Think that topping point of oil will occur some time soon, before then end of this decade. Mostly made up of geologists who've worked at heart of oil industry, plus certain "dissident" analysts and journos.

"Late toppers"- those who believe that two trillion barrels of oil or more in oil reserves and reasonably expectable future discoveries. Thinks that topping point remains far away in late 2030's and no need for immediate concern. A camp mostly drawn from oil company execs, govt agencies, financial analysts and most business journos. The preferred scenario for many on this thread it seems.

As the costs of a barrel of oil escalate and new data trickles out of over-estimations in reserves, the "early toppers" predictions are gaining more credence and the end of the Empire of Oil is in sight. Unfortunately, political decisions to expand the energy alternatives of nuclear and biofuels, if the rich world carries on consuming at the same pace as before, provide little succour for the majority of people or environmental health of this small, finite planet. Or "Blue Pearl" as Jeremy Leggett refers to it.

NB: Something went wrong with the Quote function. The above highlighted sections were quoted from an earlier post by Phil Harries in response to a post of mine.

Edited January 16, 2008 by plachon

[Gary A]

Unfortunately the optimists won't be around to say "I told you so" because all of us will be dead and gone before peak oil ever occurs.

[Gary A]

Finally someone is actively working on a project to generate electricity from the tides. Pacific Gas and Electric will put water turbines under the Golden Gate bridge. They will be far enough under water as to not affect navigation and there will be no visible sign that they are even there. They are also studying wave generation but that doesn't look nearly as promising. As long as oil prices stay up there will be MANY neat projects like this.

Another great British invention.

I wasn't aware this was a British invention. If it was, GOOD ON EM.

[rafval]

If oil was about to run out, the bastard airline companies wouldn't have just ordered the most jets ever in a year.

I suspect those new jets use quite a bit less fuel then the ones they replace, so they are rather positioning themselves to be competitive as the price of fuel goes up

[jackr]

Trouble with wind, tidal and wave power is that it all has to be on a relative huge scale (as we know it) to get a decent amount of juice to power towns and cities, unless we each have a big 'harry the bastard' turbine in the back garden.

Oil won't drop out for generations and by the time it does, we would have dragged over an antimatter galaxy, parked it a few million light-years opposite the Milky Way, so they don't annihilate each other, and be bringing back suitcases of the stuff at a time (via wormholes) to heat the water and generate the steam to drive the turbines. As for cars, the ole hydrogen fuel cells will be well away by that time or you could always drive around with a 10-ton solar panel on the roof of your vigo. Come to think of it, could have sworn I saw a tuk tuk with one the other day...

Alternatively, get the Brits in charge of everything again and have them send the Chinese, Indians, Yanks, North Koreans and muslims to the Moon aboard large vessels and set up a natty penal colony to work the Caspian Sea. Plenty of oil for the rest of us in the real world, then.

/just realised the op; how will Thailand cope? ummm......

Edited January 16, 2008 by jackr

[jackr]

Trouble with wind, tidal and wave power is that it all has to be on a relative huge scale (as we know it) to get a decent amount of juice to power towns and cities, unless we each have a big 'harry the bastard' turbine in the back garden.

Oil won't drop out for generations and by the time it does, we would have dragged over an antimatter galaxy, parked it a few million light-years opposite the Milky Way, so they don't annihilate each other, and be bringing back suitcases of the stuff at a time (via wormholes) to heat the water and generate the steam to drive the turbines. As for cars, the ole hydrogen fuel cells will be well away by that time or you could always drive around with a 10-ton solar panel on the roof of your vigo. Come to think of it, could have sworn I saw a tuk tuk with one the other day...

Alternatively, get the Brits in charge of everything again and have them send the Chinese, Indians, Yanks, North Koreans and muslims to the Moon aboard large vessels and set up a natty penal colony to work the Caspian Sea. Plenty of oil for the rest of us in the real world, then.

/just realised the op; how will Thailand cope? ummm......

Sorry, wrong worlds; Sea of Tranquility that should be. After all, they could all do with some of that

[pumper]

>what really makes oil expensive? Two simple things. Oppresive government taxation and the cost of transporting vast quantities of oil from point A to point B.<

price of oil is before transport or taxes.

oil in Texas, AKA Texas Sweet, is based on the same pricing equation as Russian or Indoneasian oil. Not all oil is the same price per barrel due to refining issues & usefullness in the chemical industry.

example: Alaskian oil is more difficult to refine & thus has less value per barrel than Texas Sweet .. this price differential has nothing to do with transport or taxes.

oil will not run out before revelations because oil was created for the chosen by the living creator.

[Lickey]

Since following this thread from the start, it made me wonder what happens underground in the huge cavities left by oil/water extraction, the attached site says it all for me, do you think oil companies should fill the cavities with something, expanding foam, liquid concrete,impurities extracted from the oil? regards Lickey.

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qi...08154027AA1Tv56

[beammeup]

Interesting to see the optimism. What do you think the rural populations will do for electricity? How will they afford to run motorbikes and farm equipment? What sort of yields could farmers expect with most work done by hand and no chemical fertilizers?

It may be worth looking at Cuba, which had to suddenly had to cope with very little oil when the Soviet Union collapsed. The documentary A Crude Awakening is worth a look.

Thats funny I was working in the gulf of mexico last year and I saw a map of all the oil fields in the gulf. The gulf is riddled with fields both developed and future developments right up until the cuban sector. Its like someone drew a line. I am sure there is a great deal of oil in Cuba!!!

[beammeup]

Dont worry they have a huge stash of dilithium crystals or something similar. They are just making as much money out of oil as they can while they can. Why do you think Libia is changed its toon. So they can get their oil out of the ground before the next fuel source comes online.

[Robski]

shoot all the extreme lefties and oil will drop 80% in price ...

Interesting... I'd like to see the figures on this. You may have found a way to solve the worlds energy crisis.

Only the extreme lefties though? Do we have to leave some 'normal' lefties to make the Facists seem relevant?

An 80% decrease in price does make mass murder seem worthwhile.

Now then, about the other 20%, who else do you think would need to die before we get the oil for nothing?

Edited January 16, 2008 by Robski

[OlRedEyes]

Alternative energy will be developed quite quickly if necessary.

How? There is no magic solution, the brains don't know what to do, you can't just presume that other people will deliver solutions, it might not work out like that.

Chloe.

The only reason there is currently no substantial competition to oil developed is the massive amount of money supporting the oil industry interests. Most oil applications would be replaced quite quickly (within decades) if the oil lobbies are less powerful.

It doesn't need magic. Development is always driven the quickest by need.

Why do you think the Bushes (both father & son) are so against binding emission targets. It's not about their proclaimed concern for the competitiveness of their economies (the EU is now the leader in new energy technology, USA is falling behind due to the fact that there is no incentive to replace oil and coal) - cleaner technologies would be another ball game altogether and they are oil men through and through.... Old men don't want to learn new tricks....

Most energy and lubrication applications of oil could be replaced quite easily, given the proper incentives. They haven't been developed properly yet as there has been no real money invested in their development due to the oil/coal interests blocking it, and in fact working against it. Plastics? I don't know, but my guess is that it consumes a fraction of the oil anyways.

Peak oil is the red herring to take our minds off climate change.

Remember that the concern and discussion about climate change is nothing new, it's been ongoing since the '80's. If the Bushes allowed us to get on with alternative technologies driven by the urgent need to stop crapping on our own doorstep, they'd lose their power and money. In their bid to save their own interests, they're dragging not only the US, but the whole world into the garbage can.

Climate change - and because of it water - is the problem. Darfur is not about politics, religion, race or land. It's about water. And it's only the start.

Edited January 17, 2008 by OlRedEyes