Peak Oil, What Happens When We Run Out Of Oil?

[solent01]

but dont you think saving the planet is a bit too much responsibility to put on your kids

Who said anything about saving the planet? Nothing like being pessimistic is there

@Thaiboxer, I like the sound of that

[katana]

...nuclear for instance has monster capital costs and very low running costs once you ignore the cost of storing the muck for 10,000 years as is the case for every case made for nuclear power) which can easily be dealt with using a discounted cashflow model to project.

...

Dounreay nuclear power station is predicted to cost £2.9 billion to decommission. Will probably end up costing more. Shows you how expensive the nuclear option really is.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/highla...nds/7322253.stm

Edited April 11, 2008 by katana

[lannarebirth]

Making The World A Billion Times Better:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...8041103326.html

[Spee]

Making The World A Billion Times Better:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...8041103326.html

No disrespect to you, but that is a stupid article with a lame and illogical attempt to correlate technological innovation with a push to alternative energy sources, made worse by trying to classify fossil fuels as 19th century technology. That last bit is without a doubt the most idiotic statement I've ever read from someone purported to be highly educated.

We have the technological advances that we have today because there are free market forces and competition which require the successful producer to present the best product for the best price. The energy market, or rather what we are really referring to, the electricity market, is hardly free market and hardly requiring producers to present the best product for the best price. Rather it is a market frought with government regulations, government oversight, excessive taxation and monopolization.

What the author obviously fails to mention is the technological advancements that have been with respect to generating, producing and transmitting electricity. These are all huge, starting with advances in getting more wattage per barrel of fuel burned, to scrubbing for reduced pollution, to operating automation to reduce labor costs, to increased transmission line and transformer efficiency reducing the energy loss of getting power from the generating facility to your front door.

If solar, wind, ethanol and other alternative energy sources were really more efficient and cost effective, then there would be no need for governments to subsidize them on the backs of the taxpayers and repress the competition through tax levies like carbon credits. The free market producers would be rushing to utilize them because of the increased profit potential. But they don't because the only way these technologies can be made profitable is through government intervention. That fact is contrary to every concept of economic and personal freedom that has made parts of the world free, great and prosperous.

Peak oil nonsense, just like global warming nonsense, is just another attempt for political power brokers and the brainless puppets dancing at the end of their strings to brainwash people and radically alter the amount of economic and personal freedoms that many of us enjoy today, and establish greater centralized governmental control over basic market forces.

Edit:

That last statement in the article is equally comical and silly. There wouldn't be the benefits of information technology without other precursor basics like reliable, affordable electricity, clean drinking water, basic medical care, and greater economic and personal freedoms like education and free choice of work. All of IT is based upon silicon technology, which is nothing more than cold metal without electricity.

Edited April 14, 2008 by Spee

[teej]

Brazil oil field could be huge find

By ALAN CLENDENNING, AP Business Writer Mon Apr 14, 9:36 PM ET

SAO PAULO, Brazil - A deep-water exploration area could contain as much as 33 billion barrels of oil, an amount that would nearly triple Brazil's reserves and make the offshore bloc the world's third-largest known oil reserve, a top energy official said Monday.

ADVERTISEMENT

National Petroleum Agency President Haroldo Lima cautioned that his information on the field off the coast of Rio de Janeiro is unofficial and needs to be confirmed — but his comments sent shares of state-run oil company Petrobras soaring in New York and Sao Paulo.

Petrobras said in a statement that more studies are needed to determine the potential of what could be the planet's largest oil find in decades. Analysts said the magnitude of the find, if confirmed, could have far-reaching global energy ramifications.

"This would lay to rest some of the peak oil pronouncements that we were out of oil, that we weren't going to find any more and that we have to change our way of life," said Roger Read, an energy analyst and managing director at New York-based investment bank Natixis Bleichroeder Inc., which buys and sells stock in offshore drilling contractor Seadrill, a Petrobras contractor.

Lima told reporters that Petrobras "may have discovered a huge petroleum field that could contain reserves large as 33 billion barrels," amounting to the world's third-largest reserve, according to his spokesman, Luiz Fernando Manso.

His agency later issued a statement saying the comments were based on a recent report in World Oil magazine and a report last November from Brazil's Agencia Estado news agency.

Brazilian Planning Minister Paulo Bernardo declined later Monday to discuss the discovery, saying, "It's better to wait for official confirmation."

Lima's agency regulates Brazil's oil industry, and his initial comments appeared to represent confirmation of what experts have long suspected: That extremely deep exploration areas hundreds of miles off the nation's coast may hold potentially huge reserves.

Brazil's current proven oil reserves are 11.8 billion barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Department. The U.S. has 21.8 billion barrels in proven reserves.

"You're talking about a reserve the size of total U.S. reserves," said Tim Evans, an analyst with Citigroup Inc. in New York. "It's a big, big number."

If proven, the oil in the exploration area called both Carioca and Sugarloaf Mountain by analysts would also be five times larger than the Tupi oil field, whose estimated reserves of 8 billion barrels were announced by Petroleo Brasileiro SA in November. Petrobras also announced a blockbuster find of natural gas in February in an Atlantic Ocean field nicknamed Jupiter.

"More conclusive data about the potential of the discovery will only be known after the conclusion of the other phases of the evaluation process, and the market will be informed at the opportune moment," Petrobras said in its statement to Brazilian securities regulators after Lima made the comments.

While the potential Brazil find could add significant supplies to a global oil market many see as tight, it would likely take the better part of a decade before any of the oil finds its way to market.

Evans said it's impossible to say whether more 33-billion-barrel oil fields exist under the sea.

"Nobody really has data on what's out there in the middle of the ocean," Evans said.

Petrobras' American depository shares closed up 8.3 percent in New York, or US$9.33 (euro5.88) to US$122.18 (euro76.99).

The company's shares went on a wild ride on Sao Paulo's Bovespa exchange, fluctuating between 2 percent and 7 percent higher and settling up 4.8 percent while the benchmark Ibovespa index fell 0.7 percent.

Oil prices were unaffected by the news. Light, sweet crude for May delivery rose US$1.62 (euro1.02) to settle at a record US$111.76 (euro70.43) a barrel.

Viva Brasil!

[digitele]

I work in the renewable energy sector, SCADA for wind turbines. I am no tree hugger, OK?

Some points to consider:

-Global oil supply = x amount.

-Global demand is increasing.

All conservatives studies suggest that China and India as they develop will require most or all of any new finds.

Building alternatives is cheaper today than it will be tommorow.

Solar mirrors that reflect the light / heat on rod filled with a special fluid that gets hot and stays hot is interesting.

Even after the sun goes down it is hot enough to still run a turbine. I just saw a demo in Nevada.

I for one wouldn't ming being off the grid. New solar technology is amazing and would work for Thailand.

Now I'll slap myself and wake up to the reality of getting anything accomplised in Thailand...

[MustaphaMond]

Since the planet is so precariously balanced- I often wonder what effect taking mass amounts of oil out of the ground has?

More earthquakes ?

I realize it is essentially organic( or so we've been taught) but surely it has a role in the system.

[MustaphaMond]

Well howto, I see both sides of the argument, but I sure as h3ll don't know which is right, so as an individual that can't change a thing about it, I'm going to get my kicks from it. I just hope my children can get it all sorted out, thats if mother nature hasn't wiped us all out herself by then.

PS, Why does everyone worry so much, its just a ride, what is to be will be.

Very easy to chant that mantra isn't it? You and 3 billion other individuals.

" nope -can't change a thing...no way"

HOw much fuel do you waste with a car, how low is the AC in your home? Gotta pool? Do you recycle everything possible or just throw out smelly, dripping bags of garbage ?

Drive 20 minutes Starbucks to get a pennies worth of coffee in a package that will polluting for 3 decades?

It is people like you who are ruining the planet and of course you're breeding and instilling your irresponsible LAZY attitude to your offspring, no doubt.

Disgusting.

[Sojourner]

There are many ppl who believe we may have reached the peak of crude oil production. This combined with an ever increasing demand means a grim future awaits a world that is addicted to oil.

Alternative fuel options such as nuclear, solar, wind, bio-fuels etc. would only provide a tiny fraction of the of the energy supplied by oil.

What will be the impract on Thailand? Is the country better of because it's a warm climate with plenty of sun and a largely rural population that could revert back to traditional methods? Or is the country to poor to afford the expensive alternatives?

The world will never run out of oil. The more expensive it becomes the less demand there will be for it. That doesn't answer how we will all get around or light our homes but, no, we will never run dry.

[solent01]

Well howto, I see both sides of the argument, but I sure as h3ll don't know which is right, so as an individual that can't change a thing about it, I'm going to get my kicks from it. I just hope my children can get it all sorted out, thats if mother nature hasn't wiped us all out herself by then.

PS, Why does everyone worry so much, its just a ride, what is to be will be.

Very easy to chant that mantra isn't it? Very easy, yes. You and 3 billion other individuals. Great minds think alike.

" nope -can't change a thing...no way"

HOw much fuel do you waste with a car, how low is the AC in your home? Don't have aircon, thanks for asking. Gotta pool? No pool either Do you recycle everything possible or just throw out smelly, dripping bags of garbage ? I have a man come everyday and check our bin for recycleables.

Drive 20 minutes Starbucks to get a pennies worth of coffee in a package that will polluting for 3 decades? Nope, grind my own beans, tastes much better.

It is people like you who are ruining the planet and of course you're breeding and instilling your irresponsible LAZY attitude to your offspring, no doubt. My "lazy" attitude helped me retire at the age of 34, some four years ago a multi millionaire (sterling), one thing I am not, and that is lazy.

Disgusting. Maybe, but I am happy.

My, thats a very high horse you are sitting on, bet you go to heaven like all the other judgemental tree huggers

Edited April 21, 2008 by solent01

[LinkPopularity]

what a lot of whining ... now almost any low life can fly to the other world to spend 2 weeks on a beach, is that really necessary? let those prices rise, they're ridiculous low now

we're not disconnected from nature, it will balance itself, don't worry ...

anyway, since biofuels are now competitive in price, more and more thais are planting palm trees, in fact we're looking for land ourselves to get started, as there's a liot of money to be made there ... it's just a matter of attitude, for some people the glass is always half empty, for others it's half full

there's no reason whatsoever to panic about these things ...

[solent01]

I agree with you link, we have been thinking of planting some Palm, but we don't have a processing plant near enough to us yet (24hrs from cut to process) in time this road will open up to us though. For the time being we are just growing Rubber.

Link, try not to be positive/optamistic on this thread, the greenies will try and shoot ya down

[lannarebirth]

Anyone familiar with thermogenerators? Gonna change the world I think.

[solent01]

Yes, heard alittle about it, electric from temp deviations or something, don't know anymore than that though, sounds interesting, will have to do a search on it.

[Naam]

Anyone familiar with thermogenerators? Gonna change the world I think.

most of our power on planet Klingon is generated by them. unfortunately you earthlings are a couple of centuries behind us

[lannarebirth]

Anyone familiar with thermogenerators? Gonna change the world I think.

most of our power on planet Klingon is generated by them. unfortunately you earthlings are a couple of centuries behind us

Things are changing rapidly these days. Maybe not so far off. I'm aware of an accomplished scientist who claims 70% efficiency in his thermogenerator prototype, currently under patent review. I think all the really cool stuff will come after I'm dead though. Here's an interesting link to check every once in a while:

http://www.nextenergynews.com/

[Shokdee]

Many brilliant and wise thoughts on this thread so far. Oil now reaching 140 dollar a barrel and lots of banter that it'll reach 150 then 200 in the near future. Fuel protests going on in major cities every week. Peak Oil naysayers please step up and give me your take on what's going on.

A general comment about the techno miracle around the corner that solves the problem: Research a little about electric cars, Erwin Black's "Internal Combustion" is a good example. Putting aside Tesla's work for the moment and only looking at the mainstream, you quickly learn that Ford and Edison were working together on electric cars nearly a hundred years ago. Their work was thwarted using all possible means (e.g. Edison was working on new types of batteries and his lab was burnt to the ground) and electric cars were pushed into historical oblivion. Black then details what is called the "GM conspiracy" which outlines how a cabal, including GM, Exide, Bridgestone, SYSTEMATICALLY destroyed the majority of US public transport electric trams - burning trams, ripping up tracks and replacing them with internal combustion buses. Town after town was ruthlessly targeted. (Black has dug up many original documents to back this all up). Follow that thread through into more recent times and the same story continues-alternatives to internal combustion are blocked, researchers are murdered, companies bought up so the technology will never see the light of day, and so on. Waiting for the big car, big oil, big battery, big hi-tech companies to solve this is to misunderstand the role they have played in suppressing alternatives all along.

There is good and reliable evidence to suggest that supply is slipping and demand can not be met. With demand from China and India growing fast, this will only quicken the drop in supply. Lot's of talk from the powers the be about "demand destruction" but this will at best only slow the inevitable. If you watch Lindsey Williams' talk on google called "There is no energy crises", he also makes it clear that this was a long thought out plan: Addict the world to oil, then restrict supply, and use this to exert total control. Besides the sites already mentioned like oildrum and peakoil, Matt Simmons has many good presentations to download Matt Simmons presentations . Simmons also details how the oil infrastructure is falling apart (rusting rigs and refineries) due to lack of investment over the last 20 years or so.

Peak Oil will be very dramatic, people need to realise that peak oil also means peak of all international consumer products - peak sneakers, peak books, peak TVs, peak vodka, peak computers, peak medicine, peak concrete, peak copper, and so on. Nearly all items we use daily depend either directly or indirectly on cheap oil. In the near future you'll only have available what is made/grown in your local area (or can be reached by foot, bicycle, or buffalo). One reason why I have chosen to stay in Thailand is there is an excellent tradition of handicrafts (woodcarving, bamboo implements and utensils, rattan furniture, cloth weaving, etc) that'll be able to replace some of these items. For people in other countries (USA, UK, EU) it'll be very tough and back to medieval times. David Holmgren of permaculure fame calls it the "energy descent to the dark ages". Others are even more pessimistic and talk of "die off" and decline to the stone ages (the Olduvai theory)

You also need to look at the cascade of catastrophes. Peak oil is happening just as extreme weather is hitting the planet and the global financial system is collapsing. These all feed back into each other creating a vicious, ever increasing downward spiral (I hear the term "a perfect storm" mentioned in this regard). So whereas before, we might have been able to ride out one collapsing system, now they are all happening simultaneously, and humanity won't cope - a triple whammy as they say.

The solution? There are many things one can do but I can't give recommendations since each person has to determine what is best for their particular circumstances.

[lolex]

I wish I could delude myself like most of the 'think positive thinking'/ 'she'll be right mate' respondents to this thread.... I was involved with a range of scientists looking at this issue a few years back... their eventual 'concensus' prediction was 'war, famine and pestilence' - loss of 50-70% of world population over 50 years starting as soon as the oil supply/demand balance gets too much out of kilter... I think we're half way there already.

Anyone know the percentage of retail price of bread made up by the oil inputs?? Around about 70% - much of it the fertiliser component. No doubt someone's going to tell us there's a new technolgy just around the corner for turning hot air into fertiliser! Endless supply near here.

The answers real simple... our lifestyle has gotta change... what's so hard about that?

[a2396]

"Uncle Georgie" (the President) and his clone (now running for President) sez we just drill for more oil. Problem solved for everybody. Any more questions?

[toptuan]

Twenty years ago, most of the big-shots blowing through barrels of oil in their big 4x4 SUV's were driving water buffalo. (Proof? Just look at their driving styles.) Not a big leap backwards.

[Smithson]

I wish I could delude myself like most of the 'think positive thinking'/ 'she'll be right mate' respondents to this thread.... I was involved with a range of scientists looking at this issue a few years back... their eventual 'concensus' prediction was 'war, famine and pestilence' - loss of 50-70% of world population over 50 years starting as soon as the oil supply/demand balance gets too much out of kilter... I think we're half way there already.

Anyone know the percentage of retail price of bread made up by the oil inputs?? Around about 70% - much of it the fertiliser component. No doubt someone's going to tell us there's a new technolgy just around the corner for turning hot air into fertiliser! Endless supply near here.

The answers real simple... our lifestyle has gotta change... what's so hard about that?

Maybe you could go into some of the specifics of how peal oil will affect us, most ppl just think it means expensive fuel and less trips overseas. It would be good to hear how those in Thailand can start making changes. In Aust (and I'm sure a lot of other countries also) large supermarkets encourage ppl to use string bags, but here Tesco puts everything in multiple plastic bags and don't even stock the string variety.

In some ways Thailand could cope better than other countries as many sustainable traditional practices are still used, but many of these are fast being left behind.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

There are places that have massive tides in confined areas. Using the energy from the tides to drive turbines could generate huge amount of electricity. The major problem being moving the electricity from the area it is generated to where it is needed. That is renewable energy the same as damed rivers provide.

As the cost of oil rises the feasibility of many of these approaches become more possible. As the cost is no longer prohibitive.

[Smithson]

As the cost of oil rises the feasibility of many of these approaches become more possible. As the cost is no longer prohibitive.

This is true to a degree, however as the cost of oil increases so does the implementation of alternatives because so much oil is required to get them built.

[DARKhood]

McCain should get rid of Charlie Black, re: his comment in pollClash would be good for McCain's campaign if we were hit by terrorists. WHAT IF HIS FAMILY WERE INVOLVED IN IT? Obama is the right choice. McCain's tactics are WRONG

[BSJ]

As an aside to the discussion I find it amusing Greenpeace use 2 diesel powered boats MV Esperanza and MY Arctic Sunrise as opposed to wind or solar or biofuels. Each boat when at sea uses more fuel per day than a Silverado does in a lifetime!

Generally I think this whole debate is getting way to much attention!

[pampal]

by the time oil runs out, most of us will be dead

[b19bry]

by the time oil runs out, most of us will be dead

Not most.............ALL (i.e. it ain't gonna run out soon). However the alternatives become more important and a larger feature over time. The faster that realisation happens the better.

[Vato]

right now israel has plans to get off petroleum for transportation completely....if they are making the shift, this should definately tell you something is definately up with oil...and something is definately wrong.

this energy problem is the BEST thing to happen to mankind...the only way to move forward is to use it all up.

living on a budget doesnt move you forward.

[meom]

Vato if Israel has it's way nobody would need petroleum anymore since we would all be irradiated.

[Vato]

i dont know anything about that...i just think its cool how a whole country is getting off petrol transport...but the thing i dont like is that you have to pay to drive your electric car eg; mobility tax...<deleted>....ehhh jews

could you explain what you mean (sincerely)