Thailand's Parliament Convenes First Session Since 2006 Coup

[ando]

Its always been the case that whoever it was to take over government, be it the Democrats or PPP, they were destined to have a tough time restoring the economy. Several factors at play here; --1. the damage done to investment over the past 2 years of political chaos and uncertainty (which BTW, still continues to some degree), 2. The current world economic downturn, -- Eg; oil prices, US/Thai exchange rates etc... 3. A fragile coalition that could end in deadlock over controversial issues.

In addition the PPP faces additional odds stacked against it: -- 1. the loss of 111 experienced (TRT) MPs, 2. a 50% appointed hostile Senate, and a constitution that gives the military the right to seize power any time they choose. Not to mention a predominately hostile media that is either directly or indirectly controlled by the military or the elite class.

I doubt anyone expects to see any great economic progress in the next year or two under the PPP. However, I think most people could expect at least a slightly better economic outlook under a Democratic led coalition.

My guess is that the longer the PPP stay in power under the current circumstances the worse they will look as economic managers. And on that front, with their hands tied in many respects, they would be likely to lose government at the following election if they go to full term. And I wouldn't expect the military to intervene while things are progressing in their favour. For that reason, I fully expect Samak to bring things to a head well before full term (possibly in only 12 months) and call another election. Samak is a bold character and unlikely to sit by and let things slip from his grasp. By forcing a political deadlock with the coalition partners and/or Senate he could bring about early elections on the call to give PPP the majority mandate to govern in its own right and get the job done properly.

I think most unbiased observers, inside and outside Thailand would agree that the very fine balance of power we see now, (as opposed to the strong government and economic management we saw under Thaksin), was brought about by the juntas interference in the democratic system. The Thai people would be faced with a choice of going for a strong government under PPP or gambling on another weak coalition under the Democrats. The PPP would surely pick up a lot of votes lost from the TRT last time around under such a platform, and have a decided advantage without the interference from the junta.

However the issue Samak chooses to bring things to such a head would have to be one carefully chosen. It would have to be one shooting from the high moral ground and with support from the majority of voters, otherwise the result could well go against him and overshadow the underlying call for a mandate to govern and manage the economy from a majority position.

Its early days yet, but I think we will See a majority PPP government within 2 years.

[Lilawadee]

Sorry if I offended any coup-lovers sobbing and grieving at the grave of the junta. I guess these are sensitive times for the South East Asian junta afficianados.

Still ignoring the question I see along with distorting the undeniable facts. What you are saying is equal to saying someone operates the rising and setting of the sun. There are several less than flattering descriptions of people who refuse to accept the truth and continue to distort facts. Thailand is already full of bad information, why do you insist on adding to it? I am still waiting for my answer.

Just in case anyone is reading this who's less up-to-date on your latest squabble, what question was that so that we can all join in and think about what that issue/question was? The above is essentially a private message to Sunrise, it doesn't state any point, question or conviction. So let's have that burning issue out in the open so I and others can add our 2 salueng to it, or else just take it to e-mail/private messaging?

[Lilawadee]

"In other parts of the forum the standards are not as high as in the news section and health sections, so the occasional BS is all part of the fun there"

Indeed. Verry high standards here.

You seem to be confusing humor with debate. I take it you never watched David letterman or Jay Leno. To inject a little humor from time to time reduces stress and anxiety is a good thing wouldn't you say?

*I* would, indeed. But after John's recent claim to the 'high standards of debate' in the News sub-forum, I thought it was appropriate to frame that with some immediate examples. In quoting some humorous banter posts followed by the 'high standards' quote, I may even have injected some humour myself.

Edited January 22, 2008 by Lilawadee

[John K]

Sorry if I offended any coup-lovers sobbing and grieving at the grave of the junta. I guess these are sensitive times for the South East Asian junta afficianados.

Still ignoring the question I see along with distorting the undeniable facts. What you are saying is equal to saying someone operates the rising and setting of the sun. There are several less than flattering descriptions of people who refuse to accept the truth and continue to distort facts. Thailand is already full of bad information, why do you insist on adding to it? I am still waiting for my answer.

You can send me a court summons if you want a direct answer to your inquisition. Otherwise, I'll choose to participate in the thread as I see fit, whether that is acceptable to you or not.

The sweet truth is that the junta has all but been defeated by the will of the people. Samak is a wonderful figure to make fun of, go ahead. Nothing bad will come from making fun of him. I noticed no one was coming up with ceaseless series of altered photos of Sondhi to mock and distort him and those who supported him due to the obvious possibility of retribution by a military junta with a well-documented history of violence against its people.

While I think the humorous photos of Samak, as with Thaksin, are immature and childish, I do applaud the return in Thailand to a state of public discourse where they can be freely distributed. That is an important triumph in itself. The three ring circus of Thai politics will continue; we just hope the circus goes on without tanks in the center aimed at the crowds.

You seem to not understand, if you can answer the questions honestly, It will restore your credibility in representing the truth and not a distorted view that you have seriously damaged.

Now you insist on saying defeated when from nearly day one of the coup they said they would depart at this time. How is that defeating them? They were not on the ballet so how could you vote them out?

When people come across posts like this, it is like needing to stop and pick the bones out of the meat before continuing the meal.

You may be able to pull this stuff off with an unknowing group of people, but to this bunch it makes you look very small indeed. Your comment about a court summons says you refuse the truth and want to rewrite history in a way that matches a narrow prejudice view.

I guess you also frown on political cartoons if you think Tony’s pictures are childish way to represent his views. I guess you would also frown on musicians who choose to express themselves in song.

Tony Clifton has become Thaivisa’s very own political cartoonist via Photoshop and I for one applaud his talent.

Edited January 22, 2008 by John K

[jumnien]

Sorry if I offended any coup-lovers sobbing and grieving at the grave of the junta. I guess these are sensitive times for the South East Asian junta afficianados.

Still ignoring the question I see along with distorting the undeniable facts. What you are saying is equal to saying someone operates the rising and setting of the sun. There are several less than flattering descriptions of people who refuse to accept the truth and continue to distort facts. Thailand is already full of bad information, why do you insist on adding to it? I am still waiting for my answer.

You can send me a court summons if you want a direct answer to your inquisition. Otherwise, I'll choose to participate in the thread as I see fit, whether that is acceptable to you or not.

The sweet truth is that the junta has all but been defeated by the will of the people. Samak is a wonderful figure to make fun of, go ahead. Nothing bad will come from making fun of him. I noticed no one was coming up with ceaseless series of altered photos of Sondhi to mock and distort him and those who supported him due to the obvious possibility of retribution by a military junta with a well-documented history of violence against its people.

While I think the humorous photos of Samak, as with Thaksin, are immature and childish, I do applaud the return in Thailand to a state of public discourse where they can be freely distributed. That is an important triumph in itself. The three ring circus of Thai politics will continue; we just hope the circus goes on without tanks in the center aimed at the crowds.

You seem to not understand, if you can answer the questions honestly, It will restore your credibility in representing the truth and not a distorted view that you have seriously damaged.

Now you insist on saying defeated when from nearly day one of the coup they said they would depart at this time. How is that defeating them? They were not on the ballet so how could you vote them out?

When people come across posts like this, it is like needing to stop and pick the bones out of the meat before continuing the meal.

You may be able to pull this stuff off with an unknowing group of people, but to this bunch it makes you look very small indeed. Your comment about a court summons says you refuse the truth and want to rewrite history in a way that matches a narrow prejudice view.

I guess you also frown on political cartoons if you think Tony’s pictures are childish way to represent his views. I guess you would also frown on musicians who choose to express themselves in song.

Tony's wonderfully creative!!! The point was that Thaksin and Samak have created an environment that encourages such wonderful humor. Not so under the Army's junta and the clear threats of civilians disappearing or being shot openly as in past Army coups.

I have no desire to restore my credibility with you, as you put it. You have a right to enjoy posting and so do I. It's hard for junta supporters to understand that basic democratic structure of an open internet forum.

I am very small and I am not pretending to re-write Thai history. I'll leave that to experts such as yourself.

Just a few thoughts. Keep on 'trucking, brother!

[Jai Dee]

Pua Paendin warns PPP to stick to 5 conditions

Pua Paendin Party leader Suwit Khunkitti (สุวิทย์ คุณกิตติ) revealed that his party has yet made any decision to support Samak Sundaravej to become the new prime minister of Thailand. Mr. Suwit said that firstly a committee must be formed to serve as an inter-party liaison for all members of the coalition party.

The Pua Paendin leader stated that the party was not holding out as a negotiation tactic but is seeking clarity in all party relations and also is trying to closely follow constitutional protocol. The Pua Paendin party has erected a small panel of members which are prepared to take part in inter-party talks.

Nonetheless, Mr. Suwit has affirmed that before his party considers Mr. Samak to be the Prime Minister, the PPP must guarantee that the 5 conditions are met and upheld. Mr. Suwit said that if the 5 conditions are not maintained, his party will resign from the coalition.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 22 January 2008

[Jai Dee]

HRH Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn presides over opening of first meeting of Parliament

His Majesty the King bestowed the task of presiding over the first meeting of the parliament and the opening of the House of Representatives to His Royal Highness Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn at Ananta Samakom Throne Hall.

His Royal Highness addressed the members of parliament stating that their first meeting was to be considered an important step on the path of democracy and that he believed all the MPs were conscious of what was detrimental to the nation. His Royal Highness stated that all the MPs had the duty of uniting the nation and bringing happiness to citizens by working in a reasonable manner.

Secretary-General of the House of Representatives Pitoon Poomhiran (พิทูร พุ่มหิรัญ) issued a memo to all MPs to meet again today on the issue of Parliament Chairman and Deputy Chairman.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 22 January 2008

[Lilawadee]

What a great post, Ando, finally something I can truly call a high standard of analysis and opinion. Let me just highlight this part of it as I was about to go say the same:

I think most unbiased observers, inside and outside Thailand would agree that the very fine balance of power we see now, (as opposed to the strong government and economic management we saw under Thaksin), was brought about by the juntas interference in the democratic system.

And I think that ties in with this recent article:

WHAT'S IN A NAME? PLENTY

Political dynasties continue to dominate parliament with almost 40 former ministers' families represented

A month after the election, parliament has reconvened with the needed 95% of the total of 480 MPs certified by the EC. The MPs parading into the parliament this time comprise both old and new faces. One thing they have in common with past governments is that many have familiar family names. A rough survey found that one out of every 10 of those elected bear the family name of a former member of cabinet. Among the well-known families are the Silpa-archas of Chart Thai party, led by Banharn, the Chaisaeng family of former Deputy PM Chaturon (TRT Banned #2), as well as the Adireksarn (TRT Banned #9) and Thienthong (TRT Non-Banned #1) families. Some former ministers have won in several consecutive elections, while others had their sons, nephews, brothers and other relatives succeed them as MPs representing the same constituencies.

With 110 experienced politicians banned, many of which were in the new crowd of 'capable managers' that Thaksin brought in for the first time to have some technocratic management of the economy, (his CEO style that brought him his first rise to power), those more modern technocratic leaders were actually on the way to replace those dinosaurs quoted above. The military's interference and subsequent show-trial to justify the coup left the new echelon banned for 5 years, so guess which people/families now come floating to the top again.

This shows very clearly what an incredible set-back the coup was for politics in Thailand, and it will take many years to again begin to replace those regional mafia clans with actual leadership and capable management.

Indeed I'm also not holding my breath for the Samak government to make much progress anywhere, the only bright point I see in all this is that at least it's not generals in charge anymore. But the coup was a resounding success for the people who committed it in terms of weakening the political system, elevating the role of the military once again, and retain a tight grip on (constitutional) matters through a 50% appointed senate.

Point to Ponder: How would the Democrat party vote when attempts are made to revise the most glaring mistakes in the constitution, such as the appointed (not elected) senators, and specifying that the military is a government organization UNDER an elected government and not an independent group who can step in at any time. When those very reasonable and undoubtedly democratic changes are submitted, how will the "Democrat" Party vote?

Edited January 22, 2008 by Lilawadee

[Jai Dee]

Yongyuth resigns to take role as Parliament President

People’s Power Party Registrar Saman Lertwongrat (สมาน เลิศวงศ์รัตน์) has confirmed the resignation of Deputy Party Leader Yongyuth Thiyaphairat (ยงยุทธ ติยะไพรัช) from his position in the party in preparation to assume his position as President of the House of Representatives.

The People’s Power Party submitted Mr. Yongyuth’s name for the role, but as the Constitution stipulates the Chairman of the Parliament may not hold an executive position in their party Mr. Yongyuth is required to revoke his stature.

The PPP also stated that the no resignations from party members have been made yet as the party is still considering on the qualifications of the 4 contenders. Two of the four party members suggested to take on the role are party executives including Mr. Choosak Sirinin (ชูศักดิ์ ศิรินิล) and Doctor Prasong Booranapong (ประสงค์ บูรณ์พงศ์).

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 22 January 2008

[John K]

Sorry if I offended any coup-lovers sobbing and grieving at the grave of the junta. I guess these are sensitive times for the South East Asian junta afficianados.

Still ignoring the question I see along with distorting the undeniable facts. What you are saying is equal to saying someone operates the rising and setting of the sun. There are several less than flattering descriptions of people who refuse to accept the truth and continue to distort facts. Thailand is already full of bad information, why do you insist on adding to it? I am still waiting for my answer.

You can send me a court summons if you want a direct answer to your inquisition. Otherwise, I'll choose to participate in the thread as I see fit, whether that is acceptable to you or not.

The sweet truth is that the junta has all but been defeated by the will of the people. Samak is a wonderful figure to make fun of, go ahead. Nothing bad will come from making fun of him. I noticed no one was coming up with ceaseless series of altered photos of Sondhi to mock and distort him and those who supported him due to the obvious possibility of retribution by a military junta with a well-documented history of violence against its people.

While I think the humorous photos of Samak, as with Thaksin, are immature and childish, I do applaud the return in Thailand to a state of public discourse where they can be freely distributed. That is an important triumph in itself. The three ring circus of Thai politics will continue; we just hope the circus goes on without tanks in the center aimed at the crowds.

You seem to not understand, if you can answer the questions honestly, It will restore your credibility in representing the truth and not a distorted view that you have seriously damaged.

Now you insist on saying defeated when from nearly day one of the coup they said they would depart at this time. How is that defeating them? They were not on the ballet so how could you vote them out?

When people come across posts like this, it is like needing to stop and pick the bones out of the meat before continuing the meal.

You may be able to pull this stuff off with an unknowing group of people, but to this bunch it makes you look very small indeed. Your comment about a court summons says you refuse the truth and want to rewrite history in a way that matches a narrow prejudice view.

I guess you also frown on political cartoons if you think Tony’s pictures are childish way to represent his views. I guess you would also frown on musicians who choose to express themselves in song.

Tony's wonderfully creative!!! The point was that Thaksin and Samak have created an environment that encourages such wonderful humor. Not so under the Army's junta and the clear threats of civilians disappearing or being shot openly as in past Army coups.

I have no desire to restore my credibility with you, as you put it. You have a right to enjoy posting and so do I. It's hard for junta supporters to understand that basic democratic structure of an open internet forum.

I am very small and I am not pretending to re-write Thai history. I'll leave that to experts such as yourself.

Just a few thoughts. Keep on 'trucking, brother!

There you go again lumping everyone in one pool, citing other juntas as being the same. I guess if your parents were convicted of a crime before you were born, you are just as guilty by the way you put it and you should server the same amount of time in jail. Your unborn children and grandchildren can expect the same too I guess.

[Lilawadee]

Let me spell out what I think is Sunrise's opinion in baby talk then, maybe that will work:

-> 15 years ago the same army that was in power last year shot and killed unarmed protesters around Ratchadamnoen Klang road in Bangkok.

-> Those brave souls faced the Thai army's guns with nothing more that the conviction that Thailand should be free and democratic.

-> 15 years later, the military commits a coup against elected government yet again, and imposes martial law in many provinces. New censorship is enacted, and other moves are made to stifle democracy.

-> Now, put yourself in the shoes of someone loving freedom of expression and democracy: Would you not be a little concerned at what a military junta might do, given the examples of 1992 and 1976?

[John K]

The below is an excerpt from this story in the Bangkok Post today.

Sonthi Fights Back

http://www.bangkokpost.net/topstories/tops...s.php?id=125335

However, the deputy prime minister said he had no regrets about staging the coup and had never thought it was a mistake.

"The coup was unavoidable because of the divisions in the country, the interference in independent organisations, the lese majeste charges and the lack of confidence in the leadership.

"I had to do it. The seizure of power was not a waste of time," he said.

He did not rule himself out of politics, but the decision would depend on the situation after the PPP forms the government. If the same problems crop up under the PPP administration, he may decide to re-enter politics.

"I don't want politics to be seen as bad and dirty. If people think that way, the new generation will turn their backs on politics and good people will refuse to work for the country," he said.

[ando]

Point to Ponder: How would the Democrat party vote when attempts are made to revise the most glaring mistakes in the constitution, such as the appointed (not elected) senators, and specifying that the military is a government organization UNDER an elected government and not an independent group who can step in at any time. When those very reasonable and undoubtedly democratic changes are submitted, how will the "Democrat" Party vote?

This is the TYPE of issue, but not necessarily THE issue that I think Samak will use as an excuse to call an early election. One with high moral value that is generally supported by the voters and paints the opposition in a bad light. When the coalition starts to break down with some parties resigning and crossing the floor for their own selfish agendas (that they think they wont be brought into electoral account for), the trap will be sprung.

[hammered]

Its always been the case that whoever it was to take over government, be it the Democrats or PPP, they were destined to have a tough time restoring the economy. Several factors at play here; --1. the damage done to investment over the past 2 years of political chaos and uncertainty (which BTW, still continues to some degree), 2. The current world economic downturn, -- Eg; oil prices, US/Thai exchange rates etc... 3. A fragile coalition that could end in deadlock over controversial issues.

In addition the PPP faces additional odds stacked against it: -- 1. the loss of 111 experienced (TRT) MPs, 2. a 50% appointed hostile Senate, and a constitution that gives the military the right to seize power any time they choose. Not to mention a predominately hostile media that is either directly or indirectly controlled by the military or the elite class.

I doubt anyone expects to see any great economic progress in the next year or two under the PPP. However, I think most people could expect at least a slightly better economic outlook under a Democratic led coalition.

My guess is that the longer the PPP stay in power under the current circumstances the worse they will look as economic managers. And on that front, with their hands tied in many respects, they would be likely to lose government at the following election if they go to full term. And I wouldn't expect the military to intervene while things are progressing in their favour. For that reason, I fully expect Samak to bring things to a head well before full term (possibly in only 12 months) and call another election. Samak is a bold character and unlikely to sit by and let things slip from his grasp. By forcing a political deadlock with the coalition partners and/or Senate he could bring about early elections on the call to give PPP the majority mandate to govern in its own right and get the job done properly.

I think most unbiased observers, inside and outside Thailand would agree that the very fine balance of power we see now, (as opposed to the strong government and economic management we saw under Thaksin), was brought about by the juntas interference in the democratic system. The Thai people would be faced with a choice of going for a strong government under PPP or gambling on another weak coalition under the Democrats. The PPP would surely pick up a lot of votes lost from the TRT last time around under such a platform, and have a decided advantage without the interference from the junta.

However the issue Samak chooses to bring things to such a head would have to be one carefully chosen. It would have to be one shooting from the high moral ground and with support from the majority of voters, otherwise the result could well go against him and overshadow the underlying call for a mandate to govern and manage the economy from a majority position.

Its early days yet, but I think we will See a majority PPP government within 2 years.

I agree with your analysis of how things will probably go. However, it needs to be pointed out that with today some analysyts saying that the US is now in recession and markets tanking rapidly that the economic situation will take center stage pretty soon. What you postulate pretty much relies on Samak keeping the economy away from becoming the major issue. That probably implies that keeping confrontation at the top of the agenda will be necessary for him to do this, and to bring things to a head sooner rather than later. It will be a bumpy road, and one that could have unpredictable events along it. It can also be argued that the event that brings things to a head may come from the courts and therefore be out of the control of Samak. Some may also argue that Samak was only really selected for the period of confrontation and until that is over he will remain titular head.

It is interesting that some economic big hitters seem to have turned down the opportunity of an economic portfolio. That will not help a coalition devoid of real talent to keep things together economically. If as the Post maintains ministries have also been given out with little thought to who would be able to do the job that will also portend both instability and a short lived government.

Your comment on the PPP picking up votes in the election is very real not just because they wont be interfered with but also because they will be able to interfere with others. The question really seems will the country end up at an election first or at a major court case. The elite group and the PPP control different levers. Who will pull first. And who will those supporting the parliamentary opposition jump with, if anyone, when a crisis ensues.

[hammered]

Concerning parliamentary control and procedure, the putting of only PPP guys in as house speakers and deputies will guarantee a Narong Wongwan moment cant happen (for those who remember). It also shows the lack of trust that probably exists right now as one would expect a coaliton partner to get a deputy position, which could be a very powerful post if Yuth (presumed speaker) goes down.

[Big A]

There is a certain lovely satisfaction in seeing the junta so roundly defeated by the people!

Thats an extremely naive comment.

PPP, or whatever derivative name you want to give them, cheated, scammed and hoodwinked 'the people'.

The junta, who is allegedly the big bad giant, played by the rules.

Come back in 6-12 months time and see what a complete f#ck up this circus brings to town

Extremely well put, JacknDanny. I couldn't have said better myself. It's gonna be another TRT scam. Ah well, who was it said that 'the people get who they deserve'?

[younghusband]

Let me spell out what I think is Sunrise's opinion in baby talk then, maybe that will work:

-> 15 years ago the same army that was in power last year shot and killed unarmed protesters around Ratchadamnoen Klang road in Bangkok.

-> Those brave souls faced the Thai army's guns with nothing more that the conviction that Thailand should be free and democratic.

-> 15 years later, the military commits a coup against elected government yet again, and imposes martial law in many provinces. New censorship is enacted, and other moves are made to stifle democracy.

-> Now, put yourself in the shoes of someone loving freedom of expression and democracy: Would you not be a little concerned at what a military junta might do, given the examples of 1992 and 1976?

Clearly, although each coup needs to be examined on its own merits, there is a clear connection with the military culture that has resulted in multiple army interventions in politics over the last seventy years, and by implication the immature state of Thailand's democratic institutions.To argue otherwise is historical illiteracy and frankly is not even worthy of further consideration.More importantly it's crucial to understand the massive damage that a coup does to Thailand's reputation, economy and political development.The Bangkok middle class who broadly supported the coup has some hard thinking to do.

General Sondhi is reported today, along with the comment-I paraphrase- that Thaksin is a man of good character with whom he can do business, to believe the coup was not a waste of time.Well he would say that wouldn't he as Mandy Rice-Davies might say.But to be fair to him and his junta colleagues, the last coup was relatively benign in that nobody was killed and it looks as though democracy will be restored on time.The point however I have been making over the last few months is that one shouldn't have too rosy a view of "the gentle junta".

It's important to understand this was a collection of people of exceptional incompetence and political ineptitude (thank heavens for that).They lacked the sheer brutality and bloodymindedness needed to achieve their agenda.I think we have to give due credit to public opinion and even the much maligned press.The junta's nerve failed in several areas - couldn't get their way in the constitution on emergency powers, couldn't implement their black propaganda campaign against the PPP, couldn't prove rampant corruption and lese majeste charges (the excuse for the coup), lacked the courage to take on the charges that could have neutralised Thaksin once and for all(drugs war killings and army murder of Muslim villagers in the South).

The sheer stupidity, bad judgement and torpor of the puppet government is a matter of record.I would argue that from the point of view of preserving the elite's vested interests -let's face it the underlying motivation of the coup if not the proximate cause -there has actually been a deterioration of the position.By this I mean the majority is now thoroughly politicised and arguably is not willing to take the traditional deferential line.In the phrase the coup apologists hate so much, the genie is out of the bottle.Meanwhile time and gravity will have their effect and "Old Ginger" will wither on the vine.The dinosaur element in the power structure has already lost much influence and shortly will have less.

So society and politics in Thailand are evolving fast, and no predictions can be made with much certainty.As the great French political philosopher de Tocqueville pointed out, the most likely time for dangerous revolutions occurs when things are changing for the better not when society is static.I don't think it's likely or imminent but I wouldn't even rule out another coup if the reactionary/feudal/ military elite feels completely threatened, but as matters stand it would be a short term victory and in a very sense spell their death knell.My hunch is that with Thai good sense an appreciation of enlightened self interest or noblesse oblige will emerge that will ensure the ruling class many decades of dominance.But, and here's the rub, it does mean a much fairer society and a transfer of resources to the majority.This won't be achieved by socialism or the PPP (I don't really understand what their economic policy is) but by adherence to free market principles and acceptance of globalisation's inevitability.That's the theory anyway but as we all know cold winds are blowing in the world economy, and in the end this might be more significant for Thailand's future than politicians squabbles.

Edited January 22, 2008 by younghusband

[John K]

Reminder and Analysis

In every structure that I can see there is a method to remove someone at a higher level without revolt, coup or whatever. Even the military has the means to remove a general .The exceptions are a dictator who would just make you go missing one way or another for trying.

Thaksin was working at setting up that scenario as he hinted several times about declaring a state of emergency because of the PAD protests for him to step down. Thaksin tried to provoke PAD into being out of control and violent. When that did not work he hired his own thugs to start assault the PAD drawing first blood. The first of Thaksin’s victims were old men and young children. There was a huge PAD rally scheduled for September 20, 2006 that expected to draw between 60,000 and 100,000 people. There were indications that armed Thaksin thugs were looking at turn that peaceful rally into a blood bath thus giving Thaksin the reason to declare a state of emergency. If the coup did not happen, nearly everyone was predicting the same outcome on September 20. Violence plays into Thaksin’s hands and he does not hesitate to use it his history has shown.

Under the law at that time, that deceleration would have given Thaksin the same power in Bangkok as in the 3 southernmost provinces successfully ending any further protests against him. It would allow him to go and arrest people at their homes in the middle of the night without question or accountability, 100% control of all media independent or not. The list goes on. Sounds a lot like Burma from last year where dictators rule and not at all like a democracy, but that was how that law was designed to be, to give absolute power to one man to dictate over all.

Now seeing is Thaksin’s track record says he cares nothing about rules that go against him, but makes use of them to their fullest potential for him, I doubt he would have stepped down if asked. The fact that he is working so hard at coming back now supports that. Anyone not obsessed would have moved on to the next chapter in their lives by now.

Now we enter the PPP chapter in Thai history, and it yet to be seen how long this chapter is. There are already significant indications that will be a bad chapter that may well start where Thaksin’s thugs left off. If the platform the PPP has outlined is true, then we can expect to pickup at September 18, 2006.

Edited January 22, 2008 by John K

[sriracha john]

FINANCE PORTFOLIO

Credibility a big issue

Business leaders demand a highly qualified figure to build confidence

Financial leaders have called on the new government to appoint a capable finance minister who has expertise in running financial markets and is recognised by local and foreign investors.

Chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisation and Asia Plus Securities Plc CEO Kongkiat Opaswongkarn said the next finance minister should be someone who is familiar to both local and foreign investors. "He must be able to restore investors' confidence. Mostly importantly, the minister must be able to improve economic policies for the sake of the nation," he said.

People Power Party's secretary-general Surapong Suebwonglee yesterday did not admit or deny that he would be appointed finance minister. "The finance minister holds a very important job, which affects confidence both at home and abroad. He must be decisive and understand economic and financial data used in projects or investments," he said. "We have approached those who are knowledgeable and capable for this job, some of whom are outsiders, while others are insiders who have been working for the party steadily."

Surapong would not answer directly whether he would eventually become finance minister. But he insisted economic issues form the core of People Power's platform and that he was ready to assume any position.

Dr Olarn Chaipravat, a well-known economist, has also been cited as another candidate. He served as an economic adviser in the Thaksin government and is considered the strongest outside contender for the job at present.

One businessman said he feared Surapong may not be able to ensure confidence among investors if he ended up getting the post.

"Obviously Surapong, a medical doctor by profession, has not much of a background in economics. The new government should seek someone else for the job as this post requires a person with a very strong economic background," said the businessman, who did not want to be named.

Kongkiat said the next government should have a clear policy in regard to matters such as the capital market, Foreign Business Act, Currency Act, BOT Act, Financial Business Act, Deposit Insurance Act and Retail Business Act. "Following the formation of the next government, the overall environment in the local stock market should improve. However, the stock market should also appeal foreigners. So far, of the US$15-billion (Bt495 billion) in capital flows worldwide, only 1 per cent is invested in the Thai stock market." He was still bullish about local stocks, predicting the SET Index could reach 1,000 points this year. "At 1,000 points, local stock price to earnings ratio would be 13 times with a dividend yield of 3 per cent."

Kongkiat said investors should keep an eye on external factors such as a looming recession and sub-prime debacle in the US.

Securities Analysts Association secretary-general Sombat Narawutthichai also supported the view the finance minister should have an insight into the workings of the capital markets. "Expertise in the money market alone is not sufficient to help resolve the country's economy, which is still dependent on capital inflows," he said.

Sombat was unable to say if the SET Index would reach 1,000 points this year, as prices may be affected by how the US sub-prime and credit crisis plays out. In the first half of the year, stock markets around the world would be affected by US sub-prime and mortgage problems, which had triggered a sell-off in shares while sparking a shift into low-risk bonds, he said.

Government Pension Fund secretary-general Visit Tantisunthorn said the finance minister should be widely recognised as a top economist and someone who can work in tandem with state agencies. The establishment of the next government would make the country's economic outlook brighter but foreign investors would also be careful about rushing to invest in local stocks, given the US credit crisis, he said.

Separately, Chookiat Ophaswongse, president of the Rice Exporters Association, said businessmen expected the new government would invite outside experts to lead respective economic ministries. "We are hopeful the new government will improve local and overseas business confidence by appointing a high calibre team, whose members can be recruited from the outside."

He said Mingkwan Saengsuwan could be Commerce Minister, because he was a good marketer. But he was concerned about other positions, as he could not think of anyone in the coalition that really fitted the bill. Chookiat also said the new government should continue promoting sustainable development in the farm sector, by not setting overly high guarantee prices. Unrealistic guarantee prices could wreck market mechanisms in the long run, even though they may benefit the government politically, he warned.

Commerce Minister Krirk-krai Jirapaet said his replacement should concentrate on sustainable development in sectors such as agriculture and exports to spur domestic growth. He said the new minister should set appropriate crop prices to stabilise farm goods rather than high prices to boost its popularity. It should also set a fair consumer pricing system.

Premchai Karnasuta, the head of Italian-Thai Development, said he believed infrastructure projects would be among the best and quickest ways to jump-start the economy. "I believe Bt300 billion to Bt400 billion could do the job. The fact that the new government is elected will boost confidence among local and international institutions, such as JBIC of Japan. They should be ready to extend loans again."

Prasert Marittanaporn, a director of infrastructure builder Chor Kanchang, said there were few mega-projects currently, which had forced some contractors to work abroad. He expects the new government to back more local projects. His firm was mobilising funds and resources to bid for them, he said.

- The Nation

[blaze]

Let me spell out what I think is Sunrise's opinion in baby talk then, maybe that will work:

-> 15 years ago the same army that was in power last year shot and killed unarmed protesters around Ratchadamnoen Klang road in Bangkok.

-> Those brave souls faced the Thai army's guns with nothing more that the conviction that Thailand should be free and democratic.

-> 15 years later, the military commits a coup against elected government yet again, and imposes martial law in many provinces. New censorship is enacted, and other moves are made to stifle democracy.

-> Now, put yourself in the shoes of someone loving freedom of expression and democracy: Would you not be a little concerned at what a military junta might do, given the examples of 1992 and 1976?

Clearly, although each coup needs to be examined on its own merits, there is a clear connection with the military culture that has resulted in multiple army interventions in politics over the last seventy years, and by implication the immature state of Thailand's democratic institutions.To argue otherwise is historical illiteracy and frankly is not even worthy of further consideration.More importantly it's crucial to understand the massive damage that a coup does to Thailand's reputation, economy and political development.The Bangkok middle class who broadly supported the coup has some hard thinking to do.

General Sondhi is reported today, along with the comment-I paraphrase- that Thaksin is a man of good character with whom he can do business, to believe the coup was not a waste of time.Well he would say that wouldn't he as Mandy Rice-Davies might say.But to be fair to him and his junta colleagues, the last coup was relatively benign in that nobody was killed and it looks as though democracy will be restored on time.The point however I have been making over the last few months is that one shouldn't have too rosy a view of "the gentle junta".

It's important to understand this was a collection of people of exceptional incompetence and political ineptitude (thank heavens for that).They lacked the sheer brutality and bloodymindedness needed to achieve their agenda.I think we have to give due credit to public opinion and even the much maligned press.The junta's nerve failed in several areas - couldn't get their way in the constitution on emergency powers, couldn't implement their black propaganda campaign against the PPP, couldn't prove rampant corruption and lese majeste charges (the excuse for the coup), lacked the courage to take on the charges that could have neutralised Thaksin once and for all(drugs war killings and army murder of Muslim villagers in the South).

The sheer stupidity, bad judgement and torpor of the puppet government is a matter of record.I would argue that from the point of view of preserving the elite's vested interests -let's face it the underlying motivation of the coup if not the proximate cause -there has actually been a deterioration of the position.By this I mean the majority is now thoroughly politicised and arguably is not willing to take the traditional deferential line.In the phrase the coup apologists hate so much, the genie is out of the bottle.Meanwhile time and gravity will have their effect and "Old Ginger" will wither on the vine.The dinosaur element in the power structure has already lost much influence and shortly will have less.

So society and politics in Thailand are evolving fast, and no predictions can be made with much certainty.As the great French political philosopher de Tocqueville pointed out, the most likely time for dangerous revolutions occurs when things are changing for the better not when society is static.I don't think it's likely or imminent but I wouldn't even rule out another coup if the reactionary/feudal/ military elite feels completely threatened, but as matters stand it would be a short term victory and in a very sense spell their death knell.My hunch is that with Thai good sense an appreciation of enlightened self interest or noblesse oblige will emerge that will ensure the ruling class many decades of dominance.But, and here's the rub, it does mean a much fairer society and a transfer of resources to the majority.This won't be achieved by socialism or the PPP (I don't really understand what their economic policy is) but by adherence to free market principles and acceptance of globalisation's inevitability.That's the theory anyway but as we all know cold winds are blowing in the world economy, and in the end this might be more significant for Thailand's future than politicians squabbles.

Very good analysis YH- deserves to be read carefully and thoughtfully by all participants, regardless of personal feelings.

[ando]

Your comment on the PPP picking up votes in the election is very real not just because they wont be interfered with but also because they will be able to interfere with others. The question really seems will the country end up at an election first or at a major court case. The elite group and the PPP control different levers. Who will pull first. And who will those supporting the parliamentary opposition jump with, if anyone, when a crisis ensues.

My analysis is admittedly based on the presumption that the courts would not want to be the ones to seen as stumbling in their attempt to find a solution to a political impasse as they did previously. At least not at this early stage. Perhaps a year or two down the track they might be inclined to lean in a different direction. A gridlocked political situation held up by the courts would put them under immense pressure considering the terrible mess it created last time round. I think that decisions of political expediency would be more likely to be forthcoming rather than a protracted legal stalemate with no end in sight. And I seriously doubt the military would want this mess dumped in their lap so soon again considering the criticism they received from their handling of the situation last time.

Even banning the PPP wouldn't benefit the Democrats until the PPP had a year of two to become unpopular over the economy, as they would surely rise again with a different name and different faces. I think there are certainly a lot of IFs in there for sure, but the ball is really in Samaks court at this stage.

[younghusband]

The below is an excerpt from this story in the Bangkok Post today.

Sonthi Fights Back

http://www.bangkokpost.net/topstories/tops...s.php?id=125335

However, the deputy prime minister said he had no regrets about staging the coup and had never thought it was a mistake.

"The coup was unavoidable because of the divisions in the country, the interference in independent organisations, the lese majeste charges and the lack of confidence in the leadership.

"I had to do it. The seizure of power was not a waste of time," he said.

He did not rule himself out of politics, but the decision would depend on the situation after the PPP forms the government. If the same problems crop up under the PPP administration, he may decide to re-enter politics.

"I don't want politics to be seen as bad and dirty. If people think that way, the new generation will turn their backs on politics and good people will refuse to work for the country," he said.

For those who don't have time to click on every link. General Sondhi goes on to say that he was confident that Mr Thaksin was not a vengeful man(fingers crossed one suspects).He goes on to say "I believe in Police Lt-Colonel Thaksin's good character".

These are going to be difficult days for the paranoid Thaksin haters as his rehabiltation gathers apace, perhaps in due course with endorsement from the very top.As a British foreign office official famously said after the Hitler-Stalin pact, all "isms" are "wasms".There's precious little amusement to be had in Thai politics these days but at least we can anticipate some harmless fun ahead as those who obsesssively hated Thaksin struggle and wriggle to explain his coming rehabilitation.

Edited January 22, 2008 by younghusband

[Seneque]

The military with brute force (which is what it is when you go downtown with a tank) got rid of the new corruption (Mr. T and cronies), they had 16 months to fill their pockets and did so (what else to expect from this bunch) and left us with old rags politicians (old corruption looking for fresh cash)... it's going to be an interested year. I don't hold my breath ....

[sriracha john]

WHAT'S IN A NAME? PLENTY

Political dynasties continue to dominate parliament with almost 40 former ministers' families represented

A month after the election, parliament has reconvened with the needed 95% of the total of 480 MPs certified by the EC. The MPs parading into the parliament this time comprise both old and new faces. One thing they have in common with past governments is that many have familiar family names. A rough survey found that one out of every 10 of those elected bear the family name of a former member of cabinet. Among the well-known families are the Silpa-archas of Chart Thai party, led by Banharn, the Chaisaeng family of former Deputy PM Chaturon (TRT Banned #2), as well as the Adireksarn (TRT Banned #9) and Thienthong (TRT Non-Banned #1) families. Some former ministers have won in several consecutive elections, while others had their sons, nephews, brothers and other relatives succeed them as MPs representing the same constituencies. Like it or not, these politicians' families have dominated their regions for decades. It is anyone's guess when these family names will no longer be in government. Chulalongkorn University political scientist Siriphan Noksuan says parliaments filled with many old politicians' families will remain, along with pork-barrel politics, regardless of electoral rules, which might vary from one election to another. The family names of almost 40 former ministers will be repeatedly heard during parliamentary sessions following their victories in last month's election.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.net/News/22Jan2008_news28.php

==================================================

Thaksin Shinawatra (TRT Banned #1) also is firmly in this group with his niece, his brother-in-law, and possibly his cousin all being in the new government. However, it seems his sister-in-law did not win in her campaign to get elected, so there's one less.

Point to Ponder: How would the Democrat party vote when attempts are made to revise the most glaring mistakes in the constitution, such as the appointed (not elected) senators, and specifying that the military is a government organization UNDER an elected government and not an independent group who can step in at any time. When those very reasonable and undoubtedly democratic changes are submitted, how will the "Democrat" Party vote?

This is the TYPE of issue, but not necessarily THE issue that I think Samak will use as an excuse to call an early election. One with high moral value that is generally supported by the voters and paints the opposition in a bad light. When the coalition starts to break down with some parties resigning and crossing the floor for their own selfish agendas (that they think they wont be brought into electoral account for), the trap will be sprung.

Yep... the last elected, supposedly non-partisan, supposedly independent Senate worked so well.... this actually reads as a carbon copy of the first quoted article:

Analysis: Nepotism favourite for senatorial race

Although elections for the 200-seat Upper House are still five months away, likely candidates already seem to be no different from the departing senators, many of whom have been accused of being in league with the government.

In several provinces the candidates with the best chances to win are close associates of government heavyweights.

Wives, husbands and relatives of high-ranking officials have declared their candidacies and wasted no time in launching their “campaigns”.

PM’s Office Minister Newin Chidchob will see both his father Chai and his father-in-law Khanaen Supa run for the Upper House. Chai will contest a seat in Buri Ram, where he is a former MP, and Khanaen will run in Chiang Mai.

Deputy Prime Minister Suwat Liptapanlop is backing his wife Poonpirom in Nakhon Ratchasima, where she is expected to be the front runner largely due to Suwat’s popularity in the province.

Veteran Snoh Thienthong is throwing his backing behind his younger brother Wittaya and his sister-in-law Kwanreun in his home province of Sa Kaew. Wittaya is a former Sa Kaew MP.

The Shinawatra family will also be jumping into the race.

Phorruethai, the wife of Prime Minister Thaksin’s younger brother MP Payap Shinawatra will run in Chiang Mai.

With a line-up of contenders with such close ties to government leaders, how will the next Senate be able to maintain its independence to scrutinise the administration’s activities?

It is unlikely a wife would find it easy to examine her husband if he is involved in a controversial case. The public could hardly be expected to trust a person in that position to do the job without sympathy for a family member.

“It’s not surprising to see national politicians backing family members for control of the Senate,” political scientist Prayad Hongthongkham said. “They don’t want to face trouble or have their benefits interrupted.”

Critics have slammed the Senate for lacking independence and failing to check the government in many cases.

- The Nation / Nov. 28, 2005

[Jai Dee]

Chart Thai party to support Mr Yongyuth as parliament president

Leader of the Chart Thai party Banharn Silpa-archa (บรรหาร ศิลปอาชา) says his party is willing to support Mr Yongyuth Tiyapairat (ยงยุทธ ติยะไพรัช) to be parliament president.

Mr Banharn says the Chart Thai party will vote for Mr Yongyuth who is deputy leader of the People Power party. He also calls on all sides to open their hearts before judging Mr Yongyuth’s appropriateness for the post.

In the meantime, leader of the Pracharaj party Sanoh Thienthong (เสนาะ เทียนทอง) expresses confidence that Mr Yongyuth will perform his duty well and that there will be no parliamentary dictatorship. He also dismisses rumors that he will be appointed as chairman of the committee or the public health minister.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 22 January 2008

[Jai Dee]

PM to chair Cabinet meeting

Prime Minister and Minister of Interior General Surayud Chulanont will chair the Cabinet meeting today. The meeting is scheduled to focus on issues that must be resolved before the new government takes on the cabinet.

The Ministry of Defense will request an alteration to budgeting to improve the efficiency of potential of 105 mm. cannon rounds. The ministry will also amend several protocols to do with the travel, assembly and repair of state boats.

The Office of the National Police will present their revamped personnel structure and proposition to increase officers, which the office submitted to the Cabinet in a previous meeting. The Prime Minister asked the office to adjust the plan and ask for opinions on the matter from the Office of the Civil Service Commission.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 22 January 2008

[ando]

Let me spell out what I think is Sunrise's opinion in baby talk then, maybe that will work:

-> 15 years ago the same army that was in power last year shot and killed unarmed protesters around Ratchadamnoen Klang road in Bangkok.

-> Those brave souls faced the Thai army's guns with nothing more that the conviction that Thailand should be free and democratic.

-> 15 years later, the military commits a coup against elected government yet again, and imposes martial law in many provinces. New censorship is enacted, and other moves are made to stifle democracy.

-> Now, put yourself in the shoes of someone loving freedom of expression and democracy: Would you not be a little concerned at what a military junta might do, given the examples of 1992 and 1976?

Clearly, although each coup needs to be examined on its own merits, there is a clear connection with the military culture that has resulted in multiple army interventions in politics over the last seventy years, and by implication the immature state of Thailand's democratic institutions.To argue otherwise is historical illiteracy and frankly is not even worthy of further consideration.More importantly it's crucial to understand the massive damage that a coup does to Thailand's reputation, economy and political development.The Bangkok middle class who broadly supported the coup has some hard thinking to do.

General Sondhi is reported today, along with the comment-I paraphrase- that Thaksin is a man of good character with whom he can do business, to believe the coup was not a waste of time.Well he would say that wouldn't he as Mandy Rice-Davies might say.But to be fair to him and his junta colleagues, the last coup was relatively benign in that nobody was killed and it looks as though democracy will be restored on time.The point however I have been making over the last few months is that one shouldn't have too rosy a view of "the gentle junta".

It's important to understand this was a collection of people of exceptional incompetence and political ineptitude (thank heavens for that).They lacked the sheer brutality and bloodymindedness needed to achieve their agenda.I think we have to give due credit to public opinion and even the much maligned press.The junta's nerve failed in several areas - couldn't get their way in the constitution on emergency powers, couldn't implement their black propaganda campaign against the PPP, couldn't prove rampant corruption and lese majeste charges (the excuse for the coup), lacked the courage to take on the charges that could have neutralised Thaksin once and for all(drugs war killings and army murder of Muslim villagers in the South).

The sheer stupidity, bad judgement and torpor of the puppet government is a matter of record.I would argue that from the point of view of preserving the elite's vested interests -let's face it the underlying motivation of the coup if not the proximate cause -there has actually been a deterioration of the position.By this I mean the majority is now thoroughly politicised and arguably is not willing to take the traditional deferential line.In the phrase the coup apologists hate so much, the genie is out of the bottle.Meanwhile time and gravity will have their effect and "Old Ginger" will wither on the vine.The dinosaur element in the power structure has already lost much influence and shortly will have less.

So society and politics in Thailand are evolving fast, and no predictions can be made with much certainty.As the great French political philosopher de Tocqueville pointed out, the most likely time for dangerous revolutions occurs when things are changing for the better not when society is static.I don't think it's likely or imminent but I wouldn't even rule out another coup if the reactionary/feudal/ military elite feels completely threatened, but as matters stand it would be a short term victory and in a very sense spell their death knell.My hunch is that with Thai good sense an appreciation of enlightened self interest or noblesse oblige will emerge that will ensure the ruling class many decades of dominance.But, and here's the rub, it does mean a much fairer society and a transfer of resources to the majority.This won't be achieved by socialism or the PPP (I don't really understand what their economic policy is) but by adherence to free market principles and acceptance of globalisation's inevitability.That's the theory anyway but as we all know cold winds are blowing in the world economy, and in the end this might be more significant for Thailand's future than politicians squabbles.

Well written. We should see more of this type of post/debate here instead of the obsessive emotional hysterics some posters seem to prefer.

One point I would like to raise her in response is that Thailand could do with a little more Socialism to actually benefit their Capitalist global economy.

They have 50% of their population producing 10% of GDP up in the NE. That's a total waste of a nations human resources. Although it does provide a flow of cheap labour to fuel the factories and enhance the lifestyles of the elite class.

It reminds me of a comment by one of Australia's previous Science Ministers (Barry Jones). The comment was about the effective and economic use of a countries human resources.

" There is this South American Dictator who decides to build a monument to himself by building a road right across the Amazon jungle for thousands of miles. The country is beleaguered with serious economic problems and unemployment and the dictator needs something to shift the peoples focus away from his failings.

He puts the idea to his appointed cabinet. Excitedly he proclaims we can create thousands of jobs with men working with bulldozers in the jungle!. His employment minister pipes up and says, -- "why not create TENS of thousands of new jobs with men working with picks and shovels!?" To which they all applaud. Then another minister chimes in with, -- " why not create MILLIONS OF JOBS with men working with tea spoons!?" "

The Issarn peasant farmers are Thailand's version of men working with teaspoons. They work with outdated farming practices often in marginal land and on plots too small to be economic. But collectively, 30 million people can add a lot to the countries economy in cash terms. Even if it is only 10% of GDP, and if they have to live in poverty to do it.

People are a countries greatest assett. Using western farming techniques and machinery, it would only take maximum 1 million people to produce the same amount of rice in Thailand. So what are you going to do with the other 29 million people if you modernize the farming practices to western standards?

Well, that's not something that's going to happen overnight. It is a generational change to educate those displaced people and move them into more productive forms of toil for the nations (and their own) ultimate benefit. BUT ITS GOT TO START SOMEWHERE! Giving a hand up to the poor peasant farmers through better education for their kids is the first step.

You know, if you go back one hundred years or so most western democracies of today had a population where around 50% were poor farmers. Ill bet just about everyone here can trace their roots back to not too distant ancestors who were poor farmers?

Maintaining the status quo divide in wealth between the urban elite and the rural poor is really going to hold Thailand back more than anything else. Where as developing Thailand's human resources over the coming generations to be more competitive in the world market is going to benefit everybody in the country (except the present elite class). Thailand lies at this cross roads now.

[hammered]

WHAT'S IN A NAME? PLENTY

Political dynasties continue to dominate parliament with almost 40 former ministers' families represented

A month after the election, parliament has reconvened with the needed 95% of the total of 480 MPs certified by the EC. The MPs parading into the parliament this time comprise both old and new faces. One thing they have in common with past governments is that many have familiar family names. A rough survey found that one out of every 10 of those elected bear the family name of a former member of cabinet. Among the well-known families are the Silpa-archas of Chart Thai party, led by Banharn, the Chaisaeng family of former Deputy PM Chaturon (TRT Banned #2), as well as the Adireksarn (TRT Banned #9) and Thienthong (TRT Non-Banned #1) families. Some former ministers have won in several consecutive elections, while others had their sons, nephews, brothers and other relatives succeed them as MPs representing the same constituencies. Like it or not, these politicians' families have dominated their regions for decades. It is anyone's guess when these family names will no longer be in government. Chulalongkorn University political scientist Siriphan Noksuan says parliaments filled with many old politicians' families will remain, along with pork-barrel politics, regardless of electoral rules, which might vary from one election to another. The family names of almost 40 former ministers will be repeatedly heard during parliamentary sessions following their victories in last month's election.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.net/News/22Jan2008_news28.php

==================================================

Thaksin Shinawatra (TRT Banned #1) also is firmly in this group with his niece, his brother-in-law, and possibly his cousin all being in the new government. However, it seems his sister-in-law did not win in her campaign to get elected, so there's one less.

Point to Ponder: How would the Democrat party vote when attempts are made to revise the most glaring mistakes in the constitution, such as the appointed (not elected) senators, and specifying that the military is a government organization UNDER an elected government and not an independent group who can step in at any time. When those very reasonable and undoubtedly democratic changes are submitted, how will the "Democrat" Party vote?

This is the TYPE of issue, but not necessarily THE issue that I think Samak will use as an excuse to call an early election. One with high moral value that is generally supported by the voters and paints the opposition in a bad light. When the coalition starts to break down with some parties resigning and crossing the floor for their own selfish agendas (that they think they wont be brought into electoral account for), the trap will be sprung.

Yep... the last elected, supposedly non-partisan, supposedly independent Senate worked so well.... this actually reads as a carbon copy of the first quoted article:

Analysis: Nepotism favourite for senatorial race

Although elections for the 200-seat Upper House are still five months away, likely candidates already seem to be no different from the departing senators, many of whom have been accused of being in league with the government.

In several provinces the candidates with the best chances to win are close associates of government heavyweights.

Wives, husbands and relatives of high-ranking officials have declared their candidacies and wasted no time in launching their “campaigns”.

PM’s Office Minister Newin Chidchob will see both his father Chai and his father-in-law Khanaen Supa run for the Upper House. Chai will contest a seat in Buri Ram, where he is a former MP, and Khanaen will run in Chiang Mai.

Deputy Prime Minister Suwat Liptapanlop is backing his wife Poonpirom in Nakhon Ratchasima, where she is expected to be the front runner largely due to Suwat’s popularity in the province.

Veteran Snoh Thienthong is throwing his backing behind his younger brother Wittaya and his sister-in-law Kwanreun in his home province of Sa Kaew. Wittaya is a former Sa Kaew MP.

The Shinawatra family will also be jumping into the race.

Phorruethai, the wife of Prime Minister Thaksin’s younger brother MP Payap Shinawatra will run in Chiang Mai.

With a line-up of contenders with such close ties to government leaders, how will the next Senate be able to maintain its independence to scrutinise the administration’s activities?

It is unlikely a wife would find it easy to examine her husband if he is involved in a controversial case. The public could hardly be expected to trust a person in that position to do the job without sympathy for a family member.

“It’s not surprising to see national politicians backing family members for control of the Senate,” political scientist Prayad Hongthongkham said. “They don’t want to face trouble or have their benefits interrupted.”

Critics have slammed the Senate for lacking independence and failing to check the government in many cases.

- The Nation / Nov. 28, 2005

Right coup out of the way lets return to politcs as per normal with the big family in most provinces just carving it up between themselves. Better than a selected bunch no doubt but still a way from ideal. I like the Bangkok Post print edition piece on the families today. The last senate was generally regarded as the worst ever even long before all the politcal divisons at the end of 2005. Will the next one usurp that title?. Anyway with the coup out of the way, these are the issues that democratically minded people should turn to. The media and other watchdogs should fearlessly monitor and report on any untoward practices while of course also reporting the good decisons made. There is an opportunity now for the media to step up to the plate and advance itself as a true fourth estate. We will see.

Ho Hum. Back to fun.

[Jai Dee]

PPP member will be finance minister: Surapong

People Power Party secretary-general Surapong Suebwonglee said Tuesday that a party core member, who has been designing party policies from the beginning and has been working behind the scene will be the next finance minister.

Surapong said outsiders dared not take the finance portfolio due to on-going political conflicts.

Surapong said the PPP would distribute Cabinet seats among its partners by using the ratio of one seat per nine MPs.

Source: The Nation - 22 January 2008

[Lilawadee]

Reminder and Analysis

Thaksin was working at setting up that scenario as he hinted several times about declaring a state of emergency because of the PAD protests for him to step down. Thaksin tried to provoke PAD into being out of control and violent. When that did not work he hired his own thugs to start assault the PAD drawing first blood. The first of Thaksin’s victims were old men and young children. There was a huge PAD rally scheduled for September 20, 2006 that expected to draw between 60,000 and 100,000 people. There were indications that armed Thaksin thugs were looking at turn that peaceful rally into a blood bath thus giving Thaksin the reason to declare a state of emergency. If the coup did not happen, nearly everyone was predicting the same outcome on September 20.

Nope, not 'nearly everyone' was predicting anything. (Well some of the more rabid editors at The Nation, perhaps) The above is an utter fabrication that was initially used to justify the coup, one that actually NOBODY believed even at the time and most certainly not now. If you wish to staunchly cling to fairy tales then I don't think there's anything I or anyone else can say to convince you.

But lets say, as a mental exercise, that the above fairy tale is true, even then you have a legitimate government overthrown by guys with tanks and guns because of the 'prediction' 'by some' that there would be 'trouble'. There's worse countries than Thailand where they at least wait for trouble to actually materialize before sending in the military and shredding the constitution. You simply don't do that in a mature democracy. Rightly the whole world could not help but recognize that Thailand is therefore NOT a mature democracy, FAR from it.