Will The Dollar Rebound In 2008

[Naam]

Have a good day Naam, the Asian (china in particular) markets could be in for a wild ride this week so I hope that the TV members invested over there are hedged in the derivative markets

i had an excellent day Vic and it will get even better in an hour or so. based on a recommendation i visited a swiss-german butcher in Pattaya and bought a selection of delicacies which i will sample for dinner... YUM concerning the asian markets i couldn't care less but i am quite surprised how Europe is holding up in comparison.

[LivinLOS]

Funnily enough I just scored some terrine du lapin.. And some choice cheeses... Am considering if popping a a good wine is deserved

Good health to all..

[LPCustom69]

I don't think that Clinton was a great President, but i think after comparing him to the incompetent bumbler that followed him, the world begins to think that he was a great president.

"the derivatives market which is a direct result of Greenspans easy credit monetary policies" What? The derivatives markets have been with us for decades now

Have they been around like this ??

Look at the bubble created from the tech wrecks greenspan put..

be fair LivinLOS. derivatives would be around with or without Greenspan -perhaps not that volume- but nobody can judge that properly. the majority of derivatives have been and will be created without the tiniest reference or bearing on USD or U.S. interest rates.

Thanks Namm, I was merely correcting Pakboongs post in which he clearly states that the derivatives market was a direct result of Greenspans policy which of course is a total falsehood, there certainly was an exponential increase in both hedge fund creation and derivative activity from the mid 90's until now, and if you look back at some of my posts last spring you will see me warning of the leveraging of assets, the derivative markets and the growing power of the hedge fund industry controlling these markets. My words fell on deaf ears for the most part back then, and looking back on those posts I guess I could call myself prophetic, but the truth is that I still had a few friends at GS and I knew full well what was going on. If our young aussie friend on patong beach is really looking for a scapegoat, then he has to look no further than William Jefferson Clinton The hedge fund industry had Big Bill in their back pocket and although there were many attempts at legislation to regulate and lend transparency to the hedge fund industry, they all failed to reach the floor for a vote thanks to Clinton and other corrupt politicians like Conn. Senator Chris Dodd who sat on the banking comittee. The dotcom bubble and the eventual market crash were also allowed to flourish on Clintons watch. Its funny how many sheep think that Slick Willie was a great president, when in fact a great many of our current problems had their beginings during the Clinton administration and the U.S. not only had a President that was asleep at the wheel, but worse he was purposely looking the other way. As for our young aussie gold bug down there in patong, I don't pay him much mind, in my 30 years of investing I've seen gold bugs come and go (bust), the one thing that I am certain of is that about a month or so after gold begins its eventual descent, you will find this guy posting that he sold out his entire gold position at the top of the market Have a good day Naam, the Asian (china in particular) markets could be in for a wild ride this week so I hope that the TV members invested over there are hedged in the derivative markets

[Pakboong]

In a recent interview on CNBC with Ron Insana, one of the “old-timer”funds manager, Julian Robertson, predicted “utter global collapse” as a consequence of the bursting of the world-wide property bubble.

Often called “Never Been Wrong Robertson”, the former head of Tiger Management (once the largest hedge fund in the world), is extremely worried about the speculative bubble in real estate.

Specifically, he is very worried about a world that is sustained by American consumer spending which is in turn 1/4 sustained by a property bubble. He predicts that 20 million people could lose their homes once the property bubble bursts.

[ray08]

In a recent interview on CNBC with Ron Insana, one of the "old-timer"funds manager, Julian Robertson, predicted "utter global collapse" as a consequence of the bursting of the world-wide property bubble.

Often called "Never Been Wrong Robertson", the former head of Tiger Management (once the largest hedge fund in the world), is extremely worried about the speculative bubble in real estate.

Specifically, he is very worried about a world that is sustained by American consumer spending which is in turn 1/4 sustained by a property bubble. He predicts that 20 million people could lose their homes once the property bubble bursts.

Anyone can get it wrong once , even the Guru George Soros has , i think a bit too much doom and gloom

[Ricardo]

i had an excellent day Vic and it will get even better in an hour or so. based on a recommendation i visited a swiss-german butcher in Pattaya and bought a selection of delicacies which i will sample for dinner... YUM

Funnily enough I just scored some terrine du lapin.. And some choice cheeses... Am considering if popping a a good wine is deserved

Good health to all..

Nobody mention the word 'burger', OK ? Bon Appetit !

[VegasVic]

In a recent interview on CNBC with Ron Insana, one of the “old-timer”funds manager, Julian Robertson, predicted “utter global collapse” as a consequence of the bursting of the world-wide property bubble.

Often called “Never Been Wrong Robertson”, the former head of Tiger Management (once the largest hedge fund in the world), is extremely worried about the speculative bubble in real estate.

Specifically, he is very worried about a world that is sustained by American consumer spending which is in turn 1/4 sustained by a property bubble. He predicts that 20 million people could lose their homes once the property bubble bursts.

Pakboong I hate to burst your bubble, but its a hedge fund managers job to create fear and doubt about bubbles, both real and imagined By the way more bad news today for Mr. Robertson and his bretheren (who have been getting crucified recently after a heavy shorting binge!), new home sales in the U.S. are actually up slightly and existing home inventory is decreasing One final note, so far less than 1% of homes in the U.S. are in foreclosure, so to reach Mr. Robertsond figure the problem would have to multiply by a factor of about 15 times! Could it be that Tiger Management is sitting on a large load of CDO's that they have not disclosed to their investors Hedge fund managers are great for creating self fulfilling prophecies, it appears this time Mr. Robertson is only off by a factor of 15:1 or 1500%, I sure hope that Tiger can eventually get rid of some of those CDO's it is sitting on or they may be the next victim (what a shame it would be if another hedge fund bites the dust)!

[Naam]

i had an excellent day Vic and it will get even better in an hour or so. based on a recommendation i visited a swiss-german butcher in Pattaya and bought a selection of delicacies which i will sample for dinner... YUM

Funnily enough I just scored some terrine du lapin.. And some choice cheeses... Am considering if popping a a good wine is deserved

Good health to all..

Nobody mention the word 'burger', OK ? Bon Appetit !

[sonicdragon]

new home sales in the U.S. are actually up slightly

Vic, do you have a link to support that ? The last new home sales data were for Dec, and they were down, a lot. Jan numbers will be out next week, and while most economists expect a bounce back, that is reflection of the appaling Dec numbers, not of underlying strength in sales.

So which numbers are you referring to exactly ? Or are you just trolling again ?

[maxcrc]

Don t worry guys, the US $ is about to recover against the euro...slowly by now, coz the economy is a mess, benchmark is going down, the risk of a recession are still there.

Which is the best signal that $ is about its bottom ?

The best signal is that despite an amazing string of terrible economic news in the past 2 months or so in the United States, the euro has failed to improve its record of the end of November of 1.497.

That s VERY significant, I am not the only guy to say that....if you read some economists many have said the same thing.

Right now i am in Europe, yes, to SELL my euros I had bought in July 2002.

Even if euro will set a new record in the coming weeks at 1.50, no problem, it is not a matter of a cent or two.

Well, in November when the pound was at 2.10 $ for 1 pound, I reccomened to sell pounds straight away and some forumists almost killed me and said pound was gonna be 2.30 $ for 1 ....you see I was right . I hope I will this time too.

Now...about the baht....that s another story.....well, baht rally in the past weeks has been absolutely amazing, but it was expected , now the onshore/offshore differences has shrunk at only $0.50 . We can see it as an unavoidable adjustment.

I hope the bhat appreciation will come to an end soon...it starts to become worryingly , Thailand is growing at less than 5% at year, politics is not so stable (euphemism) , economical fundamental are very strong yes, but more economical reforms are needed, more social reforms,.... if baht follows this path it will become overvalued and in the hands of speculators and will be difficult to be absorbed by the economy.

What seems unavoidable in the middle term is an appreciation of asian currencies versus european currencies (that s will happed when dollar will start to gain versus the euro).

Chinese yuan is a very important reference for southwest asian currencies of middle and low incomes countries, because an appreciation of the yuan will cause an appreciation of the other currencies like baht, peso,... to be less traumatic for Thailand, Philippines, etc.

For example if only the baht was the currency in Asia to strenghten, it would be a disaster for Thai export, but since other asian middle incomes countries are allowing their currencies to strenghten, it is less painful.

Chinese yuan will surely strenghten further....you see Chinese inflation at its highest level in years....yuan will appreciate at least to 7.00 for 1 $ until about the Olympic Games and than....we will see, there could be a new turning point.

All this may be painful for some farangs living in Thailand or exporting from Thailand (including myself) but it was unaivoidable....for long time asian currencies have been kept unrealisticly undervalued and now their government are giving them some freedom of movement and their rises are in some cases dramatic (in other cases still not, coz the floating is managed and not 100% free).

Edited February 20, 2008 by maxcrc

[BigSnake]

Show as heck hope that the dollar make a rebound.

[cclub75]

new home sales in the U.S. are actually up slightly

Vic, do you have a link to support that ? The last new home sales data were for Dec, and they were down, a lot. Jan numbers will be out next week, and while most economists expect a bounce back, that is reflection of the appaling Dec numbers, not of underlying strength in sales.

So which numbers are you referring to exactly ? Or are you just trolling again ?

Mais non... He confused with a survey of US home builders that was released yesterday. That was up slightly, but still very red

Edited February 20, 2008 by cclub75

[VegasVic]

new home sales in the U.S. are actually up slightly

Vic, do you have a link to support that ? The last new home sales data were for Dec, and they were down, a lot. Jan numbers will be out next week, and while most economists expect a bounce back, that is reflection of the appaling Dec numbers, not of underlying strength in sales.

So which numbers are you referring to exactly ? Or are you just trolling again ?

Mais non... He confused with a survey of US home builders that was released yesterday. That was up slightly, but still very red

Yes indeed that survey was up slightly, and with that information I am making some quick dollars with a few of the homebuilders today. Of course you could wait until the actual numbers are published, but then you would have missed out on pop in the homebuilders today, ah but then again No

[VegasVic]

Show as heck hope that the dollar make a rebound.

The dollar has bottomed, as a matter of fact it looks as though the pound may trade below $1.94 vs. the dollar taday. March should see sub $1.90 pound levels, the Euro decline will be a much more gradual one, but if my friend at GS is correct then the European real estate market is in for quite a tumble later this year, just as the U.S. real estate market gets its legs back. So while the Euro might be slow to correct over the next six months, the Euro could depreciate much more rapidly after that!

[Smithson]

While ppl on this thread may be interested in how the $ will fare against the GBP and Euro, for most of us the question is how it goes against the Baht. When it first started sliding I was told the expectations were that it would reach B30 = $1, which I couldn't believe.

I believe it now, so if the $ makes gains against the GBP and Euro this is even worse news for most of us. I hope I'm wrong and if any can see it going the other way, pls post!

[cclub75]

Yes indeed that survey was up slightly, and with that information I am making some quick dollars with a few of the homebuilders today. Of course you could wait until the actual numbers are published, but then you would have missed out on pop in the homebuilders today, ah but then again No

Sure Vic. We all know that you are nothing less than a master Jedi for the stock market : you can stand up with your head down.

As for the real estate datas (the real datas), well yesterday gave another round of red news :

-building permits down

-housing starts still at their lowest level since 91

So as a master Jedi, continue you shall, homebuilders to trust. It's a good bet. And you'll make a waggon of money.

[maxmara2]

i think must go up !

[tracer5050]

always hope for the best, chicken little would be proud

[Naam]

for nearly 2½ years the message from anal-ysts of nearly all big multinational financial institutions (and multi-billion losers!) is that the dollar will rebound, especially vs. the €UR. they still insist on a rebound but have finally started to add a cautious sentence or two.

this is the latest from Morgan Stanley (short version):

EUR: Door to Downside Still Open. Although price

action has been hemmed in the 1.44 to 1.48 range, we

maintain a negative bias on EUR/USD. We were recently

stopped out of a tactical EUR/USD short, but still believe

in the trade. That said, we would wait for stronger signals

from economic data or fixed income markets before reestablishing

EUR/USD shorts.

Forecasts 2008E

Spot 1Q08E 2Q08E 3Q08E 4Q08E

€/$ 1.47 1.44 1.41 1.39 1.32

[Naam]

in order not to spoil the weekend of fellow TV-members living in Thailand who's income is in USD i refrain from posting the anals' forecast on THB/USD

[apetley]

in order not to spoil the weekend of fellow TV-members living in Thailand who's income is in USD i refrain from posting the anals' forecast on THB/USD

Oh come on Naam, don't be so coy.

I'm a Brit and sterling isn't much better right now.

Come on, let us have it!!!!

[VegasVic]

for nearly 2½ years the message from anal-ysts of nearly all big multinational financial institutions (and multi-billion losers!) is that the dollar will rebound, especially vs. the €UR. they still insist on a rebound but have finally started to add a cautious sentence or two.

this is the latest from Morgan Stanley (short version):

EUR: Door to Downside Still Open. Although price

action has been hemmed in the 1.44 to 1.48 range, we

maintain a negative bias on EUR/USD. We were recently

stopped out of a tactical EUR/USD short, but still believe

in the trade. That said, we would wait for stronger signals

from economic data or fixed income markets before reestablishing

EUR/USD shorts.

Forecasts 2008E

Spot 1Q08E 2Q08E 3Q08E 4Q08E

€/$ 1.47 1.44 1.41 1.39 1.32

It looks as though MS is on the same page as GS. Goldman has their CYQ4 at about $1.32 for the Euro and $1.80 for the pound. This will make the dollar look strong, but in reality much of the new found strength later this year will just be the pound and Euro getting weaker because of the economic and real estate downturn in GB and Europe later this year. 2009 will see the dollar strenghtening in real terms as President McCain ends porkbarrel spending and brings fiscal conservatisim back to the federal government, and in a trade off the Dems will get tougher trade policy. If I were a Canadian, Brit, Aussie,European or Asian and I was contemplating buying real estate(with one caveat-condos in Florida) in the U.S. I wouldn't wait too much longer, given the current exchange rates and the fact that Sam Zell (the man who knows more than any living human about the U.S. real estate market)came out this morning and said that the U.S. real estate market has bottomed and will begin to turn up by late spring, now is the time to pick up the bargains. The hilbama debate is about to start and I do love a great comedy team, so I will have to leave now

[Naam]

in order not to spoil the weekend of fellow TV-members living in Thailand who's income is in USD i refrain from posting the anals' forecast on THB/USD

Oh come on Naam, don't be so coy.

I'm a Brit and sterling isn't much better right now.

Come on, let us have it!!!!

you asked for it! consensus of "anals" from various big banks is THB/USD 29.50 in Q2. that of course does not tally with their forecast of dollar strength "soon" except if THB strengthens even more vs. EUR and GBP.

don't kill the messenger

[LivinLOS]

Show as heck hope that the dollar make a rebound.

The dollar has bottomed, as a matter of fact it looks as though the pound may trade below $1.94 vs. the dollar taday. March should see sub $1.90 pound levels,

1.99 GBP

1.50 EUR

Is it March yet ??? USD hitting 74.506 today.. Remember its ALL time low is only 74:48 so we are a hair from that !!

Ohh of course Gold setting another record, silver over 19.. Palladium >550

[LivinLOS]

Sorry.. now 74.431.. A new all time low..

Thats didnt take long !!!

[Naam]

THB/USD trf 32.06, cash 31.96

[ray23]

Yep welcome to 31., 29 not hardly unbelievable.

Bangkok post ran an article today saying the Japenese, have not moved forward with thier investment plans. For two reasons one is they are losing on the current baht rate, secondly the lack of killed labor here. I think adding a third these days may be accurate, political climent, things seem far from resolved to me.

Being an old codger I know I can confuse and forget things. But were we not hearing about the Japanese investments taking place last year. Apparently the money isn't really being spent

Another article talked about exporting to Vietnam, that one I don't get why would Vietnam buy from Thialand what they produce just as well at a lower cost

Anyway 29 might just be better then I was thinking, but whatever it is I really don't expect it to stay there. The part that seems to be missing for me where is bottom. In my mind we are not going to see much improvement until we get there and start rebuilding.

The baht appreciating in line with the other Asian Countries, sounds good but you really need to look at those countries and if they are equal, in performance and stablity. Maybe that would be accurate to the Philippines. But would that be accurate say to Malaysia, Singapore, even Vietnam, which seem to be producing well and does seem to have a stable government.

So taking all that into consideration the baht is still defying any logic to me and I think I would have to include the Philippines in that today

Well I'm hoping we hit bottom and sart the recovery in this year. Time will tell

[VegasVic]

Show as heck hope that the dollar make a rebound.

The dollar has bottomed, as a matter of fact it looks as though the pound may trade below $1.94 vs. the dollar taday. March should see sub $1.90 pound levels,

1.99 GBP

1.50 EUR

Is it March yet ??? USD hitting 74.506 today.. Remember its ALL time low is only 74:48 so we are a hair from that !!

Ohh of course Gold setting another record, silver over 19.. Palladium >550

There are two things that are abundantly clear my goldbug friend, first of all even though your post is time stamped 2008-02-27 you apparently are not even aware that it is still Febuary, and secondly in case you haven't been paying attention the dollar bottomed against the pound back on November 8th at $2.11 and change and the pound has steadily been losing ground since then and will continue its slide (with short term corections) for the rest of the year! By all means I would encourage you to hang on to all your gold, Euros, and pounds and we can revisit this discussion next fall, perhaps by then you will have learned a tough lesson on your own, if not I will be glad to show you where you went wrong!

[LivinLOS]

You called it at 1.94.. No amount of slipping will change that... I will wait another month to check the 1.90 GBP rates.

I should point out I am not a fan of the pound, I think its overvalued as I think is the EUR and all other inflating away fiat currencies..

Commodity index's should be what we measure the value of money against. Its the stuff money buys after all.

[Naam]

THB/USD trf 31.91, cash 31.81