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Down here in the south of Phuket, there are houses and condos being thrown up everywhere at an alarming rate. But as I travel around the area, I see the same For Sale notices and Rental signs that have been up since at least last year. And a new phenomena is ordinary houses sticking 'for rent by the day/week' signs outside.

Has anyone sold or for that matter, been able to rent their property lately? The estate agents/rental agents keep telling me their busy, but they would wouldn't they.

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Down here in the south of Phuket, there are houses and condos being thrown up everywhere at an alarming rate. But as I travel around the area, I see the same For Sale notices and Rental signs that have been up since at least last year. And a new phenomena is ordinary houses sticking 'for rent by the day/week' signs outside.

Has anyone sold or for that matter, been able to rent their property lately? The estate agents/rental agents keep telling me their busy, but they would wouldn't they.

Sure. They are busy writing the billboards and other signs. It takes times. :o

You should stick to your observations on the ground. It's often the best view.

Soon, you'll probably see houses to rent... by the hours (oops, it might exist already)....

I live in BKK. And I've got the same views : cranes, billboards, new condos everywhere... But few lights at night.

It's just common sense. It's my vaccine against "the-market-is-healty" gang.

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The problem with the 'market is healthy' reports is that they are by and large written either by developers or by estate agents both of which have an obvious agenda. Places like 'The River' are shown as condos that are doing well with record prices but it should be remembered that that condo has been on the market - with extensive advertising - for nearly three years and is still not sold out.

As for Phuket, I have bought and sold a house there in the past year. The development where I bought had 33 villas - a friend of my bought last Jan, I bought in September and to the best of my knowledge there have been no other sales. As for the one I sold, it was priced very attractively with the buyer picking it up below the replacement cost. The villa sold for in excess of US$1m but after six months on the market there were less than 5 people who came to view the property. (Incidentally I doubled my money on the property over about 10 years.)

People prefer to buy off plans and are prepaid to pay a premium to do so. A friend bought a condo in Kata for Bt14.5m - 4 years ago - he recently sold it for Bt12m.

I certainly wouldnt buy here purely as an investment but if you are looking for a holiday home or somewhere to live then fine....why not?

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"Places like 'The River' are shown as condos that are doing well with record prices but it should be remembered that that condo has been on the market - with extensive advertising - for nearly three years and is still not sold out."

Well, you're not telling the truth: the project hasn't been advertised for three years. But, even if it had, so what? The condos won't be available to live in for 3 more years.

After the building has been completed, and if there are any unsold condos left, padthaiguy/thaigene2/ bingobongo will all bray that the market is overbuilt.

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"Places like 'The River' are shown as condos that are doing well with record prices but it should be remembered that that condo has been on the market - with extensive advertising - for nearly three years and is still not sold out."

Well, you're not telling the truth: the project hasn't been advertised for three years. But, even if it had, so what? The condos won't be available to live in for 3 more years.

After the building has been completed, and if there are any unsold condos left, padthaiguy/thaigene2/ bingobongo will all bray that the market is overbuilt.

He is actually understating the truth. I first read up on The River (based on the aformentioned heavy advertising) during a stay at the Shangri-La in February 2004. So it has now been at least four years of heavy advertising. I have been to BKK regularly and always see the huge advertising. I have been amazed at the drawn out length of the project. And three MORE years until occupancy? After seven years I lose interest in anything. :o

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"Places like 'The River' are shown as condos that are doing well with record prices but it should be remembered that that condo has been on the market - with extensive advertising - for nearly three years and is still not sold out."

Well, you're not telling the truth: the project hasn't been advertised for three years. But, even if it had, so what? The condos won't be available to live in for 3 more years.

After the building has been completed, and if there are any unsold condos left, padthaiguy/thaigene2/ bingobongo will all bray that the market is overbuilt.

come on backflip, would you like a large helping of denial with that som tham? .......LOL

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I was recently in Bangkok and spent a fair amount of time looking at new projects, particularly along Paholyothin and Rachada. I noticed that most of the cheaper units had pretty much sold out, but the more expensive units were still available. I'm talking about condos 2-6 mil. Most of the buyers are thai. I believe they are looking for places closer to work and most are younger professionals. As well, they are not selling as fast as they were say a couple of years ago.

I bought a new place this past trip for a few mil. which I believe was a good deal for the location and what I am getting, in particular the design. Everything comparable was at least a mil. more. Having said that, I tend to ask a lot of questions. Most of the units have a small percentage of foreign buyers - say 10-20%. Some thais are buying them in the hopes of renting them out as retirement income. The unfortunate thing about this is that I believe rental unit prices are coming down and will continue to come down in the foreseeable future.

What I don't understand about the Bangkok real estate market is there seems to be way too much price inflation based on marketing more than substance. I saw two 70 s.m. condos - one along Suk going for over 6 mil. the other along Rachada going for half. Similar except perhaps a bit better finish for the more expensive one. Generally there is more logic in the method of pricing in a real estate market and in a good one - it tends to be very competitive. Here, the prices are all over the place and it really pays to put some leg work in.

As well, many projects that have been finished for quite some time are mostly empty - meaning the lights never come on at night. This suggests there are many speculators. I know in some real estate markets, some speculators will buy hundreds of units. I suspect some of it may be occuring here - although I do not know to what extent. I can not see such a large market for units over 6 mil. here because quite frankly, although there are many wealthy thais here, the numbers are not enough to maintain the market when you consider the secondary market of existing condos and their subsequent price increases thoughout the CBD and the lack thereof of a vibrant resell market here. There just is not enough foreign buyers to make up the 49% of the units unless there are some big players in the market as I mentioned above and if that is the case then it is worse than I thought.

What I believe is happening is that many people thought they were getting a great deal into an early market, paticularly for investment purchases, not to live in and will eventually not see their intentions fulfilled. I know many people keep saying that the prices here are cheap compared to other places - but in reality - they are not - when you can get a much nicer condo in say Shanghai, or many secondary cities in the region and around the world. Yes Singapore is getting expensive - but they do not have much land, similar to Hong Kong - but Bangkok still has much land in and aorund the city. And to pay these kinds of prices when it will take over ten years of serious infrastructure work to be comparable to other similarly priced but developed markets - to me does not sound like a good investment when you consider that the condo you buy today will in ten years show its age, and although it may not have lost value on paper, may be hard to realize in actuality.

In any market when there is a building frenzy - what follows is a lack of standards and quality starts taking a nose dive as developers are tying to realize profits and everyone is very busy trying to get and finish as many projects as possible. Here today in Bangkok, many construction sites have foreign companies from the region (Singapore, Malaysia, etc.) and although they have better standards - it doesn't matter when the work is being done quickly and with local people not used to th new methods. And to make matters worse, the rising cost of materials.

I truly believe the low to middle market to serve the locals will continue to increase (even though it is beginning to become expensive for the locals) only because of the need and demand for newer replacement housing - but even this will have to slow down soon as too many new projects are coming on line compared to buyers able to afford them. The high end market is saturated and will have problems going forward - irregardless of what someone will come on here and say - because the numbers just do not add up.

The future of Bangkok is good I believe, and if you are looking to buy to live in then I would not worry. But I would worry if you think you are going to make money from this market. I think it is possible but it will take a lot of work to find bargains as the time is late in the game.

The other areas such as Phuket, Samui, I personally do not know much about - but at the same time from what I hear, I would not be buying there as I undertand it to be a speculative market as most holiday places tend to be.

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^ An excellent post which i would agree with wholeheartedly.

Being involved in the real estate market daily (I dont sell anything!) here in Bangkok and through my work being in contact and friends with many real estate agents, I can categorically say that sales are VERY slow, throughout the kingdom, however, in Bangkok at least (which i do know about) rentals have been doing very well, as everybody seems to be renting while waiting for the government to sort itself out.

I predict a buying frenzy, especially in the resort towns where holiday makers want to buy when the government becomes stable again. When will this be? 6 months? 12 months? Who knows, but that seems to be what people are waiting for.

Again, thanks to Shochu for spending the time to put such an eloquent and heartfelt post together, which i would personally agree with.

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I wonder if people like to be the 1st owner in the Blue Book ? I know that most love to run as long as possible with the red plates on there cars, so wonder if it is the same with houses ?

I live out in the sticks, there are 63 detached 3 and 4 bedroom homes here, at the time when I bought and had my house built the 7km road was unmade dirt track…

We have 2 houses empty + For Sale + 2 For Sale with owners needing to sell before they can move, in 4 years only 1 house has been resold, of the 2 empty houses 1x was the bank repossession,[empty 2 years] Price 1.8 million, the other the owner has never moved in because of change of place of work Price 1.95 million...

The road has long ago been made and house/shops built along the road, and new project all over the place, prices from 699,000 to 4 million in these projects + selling.

A little way up the road the same builders that built these houses, build another 58 3 & 4 bedroom houses the starting price is 3.1 million for the 3 bedroom…

I cannot work out why someone will pay 3.1 million when the can buy more or less the same house for 1.8 million. ? for 1.8 million there are window/door grills, large water storage tank and pump these alone cost 45,000

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It's smoke and mirrors game around here. Getting the truth is a futile effort. You are going to believe what you read in the papers?.. opinons from real estate investors?

What are the occupancy rates?

Look at these projects at nite and count how many lights you see.

My opinion is the market is in trouble.

I see several projects that have come to a halt recently.

How long can speculators hold onto these units?

Many bought off plan with the thought of renting or selling to the farang.

The weak dollar, anti farang attitude, immigration laws, the coup, inflation have put the hurt on those speculators.

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What I don't understand about the Bangkok real estate market is there seems to be way too much price inflation based on marketing more than substance.

I really think you shouldnt underestimate how much inflation there has been in the building industry - whether it be cement prices or steel bars. Per square metre building costs have near doubled over the past 7 years.

While the price of properties has risen it is very noticeable that profits from developers and contractors have not.

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As to the River lets not bother arguing over whether they have been looking for buyers for two or four years. They have clearly been finding the going tough. The project is not planned for completion until 2011 so they have had to wait a long time to find enough buyers to make the project viable.

This means that while the market is not a disaster - if it was they wouldnt even be advertising such a project - it is clearly pretty tough.

My guess is that in the current political climate things will remain very much the same - very slow and difficult but with rising costs for developers supporting current valuations.

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Abrak,

I stated that building costs were rising and although I am not an expert on the Thai/Bangkok market, I can assure you that most developers would not enter a market if they could not realize large profits. What happens after that is in their moves and market forces. And prices have been rising each year taking into account material prices as I have now bought two similar places over 1-1/2 years and am paying a premium for a better location and rising material costs.

Having said that - there is too much of a price difference between two similar sized condos, a price difference of 100% - especially when both sites have been owned by each respective developer for a long time - so no high property costs, yet one costs double the other?

The more expensive project was the former home of the developer so it has been in his possesion for much, much longer. So he is realizing much larger profits. This should not exist considering both are about the same distance from Siam Center. I could understand if one of these sites were say on the other side of the river. The more expensive project is in a slightly better location - meaning closer to transport. I personally like the location of the other site as it is much more residentail and very quiet.

Look at the Soi Ari area and although it is a nice area, it is still far from the central area and the vast price differences in projects is not realistic. Is not conceivable that a project should cost 6 times more just because of better materials after we have given a premium for a decent location.

There was a study done recently at a premium shopping center. When they had some furniture on display at a decent cost - nobody bought it thinking it low quality. They tripled the price and it sold out.

The developers are playing into peoples' weaknesses for materialism and lifestyle image as evidenced with the ads - people wanting to stand out as living in an exclusive place.

Marketing is playing a much larger role in prices than material costs as the variances are much too large. That and greed - which generaly signals the game is late.

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"Look at these projects at nite and count how many lights you see."

Ah, now that's a great judge as to how the BKK real estate market is doing.

It is an excellent way to evaluate the occupancy.

When I see a 30 story condo at nite with 10 lites on, makes me think there arn't many people living there. Duh.

I'm not going to believe an owner, agent, manager, article in the newspaper.

If I'm interested in a place, I go there, hang out, talk with neighbors....and take a nite view of the place and count the lites.

I'm thinking there has been allot of speculation in the last 5 years and there are not enough buyers at current prices.

Edited by PadThaiGuy
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"Look at these projects at nite and count how many lights you see."

Ah, now that's a great judge as to how the BKK real estate market is doing.

It is an excellent way to evaluate the occupancy.

When I see a 30 story condo at nite with 10 lites on, makes me think there arn't many people living there. Duh.

I'm not going to believe an owner, agent, manager, article in the newspaper.

If I'm interested in a place, I go there, hang out, talk with neighbors....and take a nite view of the place and count the lites.

I'm thinking there has been allot of speculation in the last 5 years and there are not enough buyers at current prices.

What if your interested ,go there and ALL the lights are on? doesnt that mean you missed out ? shouldnt you have bought when there where less lights? but according to you that wouldn't be any good cuz the project is too slow or expensive?? wow man your logic is confusing. :o

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You guys have good points here.

I've been in BKK for more or less 7 years now and about to swap from rental to my own. I do know Thais fancy "brand new" in cars and same goes for houses. You never know who has used them before and what they have been doing so it must be brand new to ensure there's no ghosts around :o

Couple of things i've noticed that i really don't get at all. Maybe you could shed some light on these...

First is the pricing of the units. I noticed this with couple of times already with the agents. They have 2 same sized units in same building. One is priced say 6.5M and other one is priced as 8.5M (yes, very common to have 1 to 2M difference for same m2). When asking the obvious question the answer always is "Nice decoration" or "better location / high floor" which obviously is crap. 2M buys you a nice house bit further down the road...

In one of these cases with 1M difference i phoned the condo itself asking if they know available units, answer was that yes, and price is 6M (same unit as with the agents).

One more week passes and i notice the same 6.5M unit for sale with different agent and this time priced as 5.5M....

Quick call to the first agent confirms that yes, still available and price is the same, 6.5M.

Is it the owners or the agents who just seem to think buyers are brainless or is there really enough fools out there to pay the first price offered. Or could it be that the owner is asking in the range of 5M and rest is what the individual agents think they can get on top of it and in their own pockets ?

My second question is that anyone know where to find data for actual sales prices (ie. Baht/m2) in various projects? Would be nice to know. Asking price rarely is the final price paid i believe...

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My second question is that anyone know where to find data for actual sales prices (ie. Baht/m2) in various projects? Would be nice to know. Asking price rarely is the final price paid i believe...

which projects; i have some research for some of the higher end ones.

As far as new vs. second hand, it is easier to borrow on a new property than second hand. So...people buy new.

The two areas doing well are:

- low cost afordable housing e.g. LPN

- extremely high end - higher than the river, Sukhothai type level

the middle upper section is rather tough.

Both the above two there are viable markets and in the case of super luxury, there are very few sites that are truly luxurious (and the RIver is not one of them).

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which projects; i have some research for some of the higher end ones.

As far as new vs. second hand, it is easier to borrow on a new property than second hand. So...people buy new.

The two areas doing well are:

- low cost afordable housing e.g. LPN

- extremely high end - higher than the river, Sukhothai type level

the middle upper section is rather tough.

Both the above two there are viable markets and in the case of super luxury, there are very few sites that are truly luxurious (and the RIver is not one of them).

I've been looking following projects

- The Bangkok Soi Sub

- The Bangkok Narathiwas

- Baan SiriYennakard

- Siri 31

- Sathorn Plus by Garden

So far asking prices have been for the first two between 72 - 85k / m2

Sansiri projects 90 - 100k / m2

Sathorn Plus 75 - 90k / m2

For me the difference in m2 price is just way off the scale...

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which projects; i have some research for some of the higher end ones.

As far as new vs. second hand, it is easier to borrow on a new property than second hand. So...people buy new.

The two areas doing well are:

- low cost afordable housing e.g. LPN

- extremely high end - higher than the river, Sukhothai type level

the middle upper section is rather tough.

Both the above two there are viable markets and in the case of super luxury, there are very few sites that are truly luxurious (and the RIver is not one of them).

I've been looking following projects

- The Bangkok Soi Sub

- The Bangkok Narathiwas

- Baan SiriYennakard

- Siri 31

- Sathorn Plus by Garden

So far asking prices have been for the first two between 72 - 85k / m2

Sansiri projects 90 - 100k / m2

Sathorn Plus 75 - 90k / m2

For me the difference in m2 price is just way off the scale...

In Thanon Pun , indian temple soi between Silom and Sathorn a recently completed building is having a very hard time selling , dropped from thb 80k to 70k psm and i am sure more room to move down on price , they are desperate even offering ( subsidised ) 10% rental return , could be worth a look , at least it is finished and ready to move in, by the way on same street a new release called the treasure is also for sale ,but just a hole in the ground whilst they are waitng for punters , Very nice pictures but when you see location ,nothing like it , eg shows wide green street with a nice building and nothing around it , in fact small street and property stuck in between 2 buildings

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Hi shochu - many thanks for taking the time to post such a comprehensive reply few bother to go into such detail. IMO many of the quite excellent posters on this forum are exploring the new experience of Bangkok or striving to increase their knowledge of the property market but from two very different perspectives.

Irene for example is positive about Bangkok and posts exceptionally well, but principally about investment in the condominium rental arena. But to be brutally frank most homes (be it houses or condominiums) are bought as homes. As an example I have contributed to this forum for about three years but now my Unit at The Park is complete (The Park is not) my own contributions may drop off a little. The dynamics of being constantly involved in a market, in this case rental/or property developer mean that the level of contributions is sewed. My home in Bangkok will also have no lights on nor will the penthouses owned by multi billion USD billionaires who simply bought them to escape the summer heat of the desert. In my case I have just 30 days annual leave a year, that's it. For me it is a home in reserve. 2-3 m THB is actually quite affordable to a lot of UK citizens (though not everybody admittedly).

If you are looking for a more structured definition of the property market and pricing IMO you really need to review thedude or qicksilva posts. They have seriously provided deep levels of insight from a professional, informed and unbiased perspective.

Bangkok – freehold condominium Shanghai 30 years state controlled leasehold (and more expensive) sorry IMO no competition.

I think you said it clearly but if I could add, this is not a trial run at life, for me. As an INVESTMENT in my own quality of life and future, quite frankly the only thing worth considering in the investment arena, Bangkok is a great place for a home, all else logically follows…..

The River keeps coming up as a subject and yes it has been advertised for the last 3-4 years. It is unfortunately a titanic project (70 stories?) and by definition just mid ranged (pile 'em high sell 'em high unfortunately seems to have been the motto). When I looked priced really, really high end. I don't envy the people who are trying to sell that particular project. One thing lacking on this forum is a champion who has bought into The River project and can provide objective feedback in a dedicated thread. Sorry for me wrong side of the river and all that and overinflated.

Edited by pkrv
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PKRV , I Think when talking about a few million baht , really not here or there in making or losing money , and as you said quality of life plays a part ,but when we see people trying to resell or new projects at thb 125-150psm and say a decent 3 bed unit around 210-220sqmwe weare looking at close to thb 30m investment , almost Usd$ 1m them i think more comes into play , especially resale value and even ability to sell a second hand unit , that is where the main problem lies in Bangkok market , I keep on saying on the forum read the papers and go to property websites , secondhand places sit there a very long time ,

As for the River , my office is looking at it every day , do not like the position , just went to Millenium hotel Wedensday night ,so passed in front of project ,. just cannot get used to the area and rather unapealling for my taste , good to visit a hotel but not live fulltime , unless office on that side,

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Down here in the south of Phuket, there are houses and condos being thrown up everywhere at an alarming rate. But as I travel around the area, I see the same For Sale notices and Rental signs that have been up since at least last year. And a new phenomena is ordinary houses sticking 'for rent by the day/week' signs outside.

Has anyone sold or for that matter, been able to rent their property lately? The estate agents/rental agents keep telling me their busy, but they would wouldn't they.

pkrv,

Just a slight correction. I am pro-Bangkok investment only on the condos that are next or almost next to the BTS and MRT. I also have the feeling as others that the selling prices now are somewhat too high. But from my past experiences, rarely do I have a chance of buying a bargain. Whenever I buy stocks or condos, I also feel the price as too high and always feel like a sucker every time.

This time I take a safety measure of sticking to the mass transit. If it turns out that all my purchases are proven eventually as bad, at least I think I have time to stick around for the price to rise to compensate for my purchases of exhorbitant prices. That is how I see the condo picture in Bangkok. Like others, I also don't like most condos in Bangkok or those developers with one-off development. This type of developers does not care for any further developments, they just want a quick profit and run. May be Sidmund Freud can explain my mentality better. When I was in London, I lived 15-minute walk away from South Kensington station and then dreamt all the time of how I wish to be next to the station.

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pkrv,

I agree with what you are saying. Shanghai was probably not a good example - but the point was that Bangkok is getting ahead of itself in pricing probably due to too many people trying to cash in. And when you factor in that Shanghai has much more to offer all around and will soon be the city in this part of the world then I think it is fairly-priced, with Bangkok over-priced.

I also agree that Irene offers good insight into the rental market and I believe it is a good viable market to those that are willing to put the time in as it is a lot of work.

Have not had the chance to check out the others.

And like you, I have bought here because I see a good future here and also like to spend my off days here. Part of it also is I am looking to put some extra cash somehwere - but I won't do it if it is not a good deal. When I am ready to wind my working days down a bit more I will probably buy something nicer - although I am always on the lookout for something that makes me go - Yaaaaa - But - at the same time although I am willing to pay for something that makes me happy - I really hate the idea of having paid a premium for absolutley no reason. I think I have a fairly good idea of what is a good price as I have been at this for some time now - although not as long in Bangkok. When I saw a place I liked for just over 6 mil. I seriously considered buying it - but - by nature I am very inquisitive and thus went around looking at many places and I sat down and did some calculations and came to the conclusion that it wasn't worth it. I would rather buy more property here in N.E. Asia where I know I can get a better deal.

And although I agree with Irene that good convenient and close transport is of importance, I actually lean more towards nice neighborhoods with many good amenities and a good overall lifestyle.

I personally can not see a whole lot (maybe a few) of very wealthy people coming here for the lifestyle. Speculators - yes, wealthy people here holidaying - no.

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Hi Irene and ray08.

We are I think on exactly the same wavelength, the position and price of the properties is important (skytrain, OK BTS etc) new airport express etc fit into our thoughts. What I tried to say/get across was that home owners will not contribute to this forum to the same extent as those who make a living at it. If I give an example I looked at 'The Lakes' it has since done very well but was not my cup of tea (god the English have stupid expressions). We will not really hear from many on this (my) side of the fence (I wish for a home) so things become distorted (I seemed unable to spell skewed last time).

I have however just noticed a newbie posting on The River development regarding utility bills etc some encouragement may be needed...

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pkrv,

I agree with what you are saying. Shanghai was probably not a good example - but the point was that Bangkok is getting ahead of itself in pricing probably due to too many people trying to cash in. And when you factor in that Shanghai has much more to offer all around and will soon be the city in this part of the world then I think it is fairly-priced, with Bangkok over-priced.

I also agree that Irene offers good insight into the rental market and I believe it is a good viable market to those that are willing to put the time in as it is a lot of work.

Have not had the chance to check out the others.

And like you, I have bought here because I see a good future here and also like to spend my off days here. Part of it also is I am looking to put some extra cash somehwere - but I won't do it if it is not a good deal. When I am ready to wind my working days down a bit more I will probably buy something nicer - although I am always on the lookout for something that makes me go - Yaaaaa - But - at the same time although I am willing to pay for something that makes me happy - I really hate the idea of having paid a premium for absolutley no reason. I think I have a fairly good idea of what is a good price as I have been at this for some time now - although not as long in Bangkok. When I saw a place I liked for just over 6 mil. I seriously considered buying it - but - by nature I am very inquisitive and thus went around looking at many places and I sat down and did some calculations and came to the conclusion that it wasn't worth it. I would rather buy more property here in N.E. Asia where I know I can get a better deal.

And although I agree with Irene that good convenient and close transport is of importance, I actually lean more towards nice neighborhoods with many good amenities and a good overall lifestyle.

I personally can not see a whole lot (maybe a few) of very wealthy people coming here for the lifestyle. Speculators - yes, wealthy people here holidaying - no.

Hi shochu - we must have posted at the same time. Sorry Bangkok is the city not Shanghai, just an opinion :o I'm afraid my corner shop exceeds Harrods in the UK. It's Central in Chidlom, My local cinema has 40 seats (Siam Paragon Nokia Ultra screens, fully reclining electrically operated seats, executive lounge, personal blanket to stave off the cold of the air con................ it goes on).

I hate to say this but I did jest on some past topics on the products I saw when was buying for my new home. The coffee table was 3,000 GBP it is actually a bit of art you are not allowed to put cups down on it.... I have attached a picture and expect to be chastised imminently.

post-16669-1203685803_thumb.jpg

Edited by pkrv
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