The Doom And Gloom Is Laughable

[david96]

4/4/2008, Australia.

Inflation rate 4%, Unemployment rate 4%. Credit card debt $42,000,000,000. Persons in the workforce 10,500,000.

Ref. ABS.

Is that 42 Billion AUD ?

Are you sure....? On 20 Million people (you may deduct 4 million, being under 15) leaving 16 million.

16 Million people having AUD 42 Billion in Credit Card Debts.....

I suppose that number can even be a lot lower, if one deduct the elderly above, let's say 75, who won't spend a lot on CC's.

If I calculate it would come to an average of AUD 3,000/PP, and that's just credit card debts....

That's a lot of debt and a lot of problems with a lot of interest...

LaoPo

The min would be $0 the max could be $25000 and up, it was $40b just a few months ago. Australia lives on debt, how many Australians can access $10000 within 24 hours from a savings account ie without having to borrow?

[LaoPo]

4/4/2008, Australia.

Inflation rate 4%, Unemployment rate 4%. Credit card debt $42,000,000,000. Persons in the workforce 10,500,000.

Ref. ABS.

Is that 42 Billion AUD ?

Are you sure....? On 20 Million people (you may deduct 4 million, being under 15) leaving 16 million.

16 Million people having AUD 42 Billion in Credit Card Debts.....

I suppose that number can even be a lot lower, if one deduct the elderly above, let's say 75, who won't spend a lot on CC's.

If I calculate it would come to an average of AUD 3,000/PP, and that's just credit card debts....

That's a lot of debt and a lot of problems with a lot of interest...

LaoPo

The min would be $0 the max could be $25000 and up, it was $40b just a few months ago. Australia lives on debt, how many Australians can access $10000 within 24 hours from a savings account ie without having to borrow?

I can't answer your question but I do know that it's quite stupid to 'borrow' up to AUD 10,000 within 24 hours as the interest rates are sky high with the CC companies.

It's called 'stealing' from your own wallet

Also, the government should do something about it and stop these practices from the CC companies and take it's citizens into protection for these loan sharks (and themselves).

People haven't learned yet, since the stone age.

LaoPo

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

Speaking of Doom and Gloom.....

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/stor...&siteid=rss

It's interesting to note where he finds investment value currently.

[LaoPo]

Speaking of Doom and Gloom.....

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/stor...&siteid=rss

It's interesting to note where he finds investment value currently.

Interesting, very interesting indeed.

I have no further comment in fear my head will be chopped off

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

Speaking of Doom and Gloom.....

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/stor...&siteid=rss

It's interesting to note where he finds investment value currently.

Interesting, very interesting indeed.

I have no further comment in fear my head will be chopped off

LaoPo

You can buy him a beer next time you're in Chiang Mai:

http://www.asia-inc.com/septoct06/pdfs/money-1-septoct06.pdf

[LaoPo]

You can buy him a beer next time you're in Chiang Mai:

http://www.asia-inc.com/septoct06/pdfs/money-1-septoct06.pdf

Thanks !

I most certainly will and hope you will be there as well. Will let you know in due time.

LaoPo

[cclub75]

With Aussie interest rates rising, the return on my term-deposit money is growing nicely....but then the tax man puts his hand into my pocket to take his share.

It's because the Mouse that is living in you... should become a Rat.

Honestly, who keep a time deposit account... in Australia ? In Thailand ? In France ? In UK ?

When... you can get the same in Singapore.... TAX FREE on the interests ?

It goes way beyond my understanding capabilities.

And I'm not speaking about fancy scams, or schemes with shaddy banks... Go to Singapore, to DBS or OCBC banks, put a minimum amount to get the premier service, give them some papers and IDs, and voila. Done in a morning.

[i apologize for the off topic stuff, but it's stronger than me : when I see the word "taxes", I get nervous ]

Edited April 6, 2008 by cclub75

[moe666]

In the course of my life I have seem up's and down's the pendulum always swings back.

[Mighty Mouse]

[Honestly, who keep a time deposit account... in Australia ? In Thailand ? In France ? In UK ?

When... you can get the same in Singapore.... TAX FREE on the interests ?

What tax free interest rate is payable in Singapore?

If this article is anything to go on, it's not worth transferring out of an Aussie term deposit paying 7.25% every three months.

[david96]

[Honestly, who keep a time deposit account... in Australia ? In Thailand ? In France ? In UK ?

When... you can get the same in Singapore.... TAX FREE on the interests ?

What tax free interest rate is payable in Singapore?

If this article is anything to go on, it's not worth transferring out of an Aussie term deposit paying 7.25% every three months.

Australia inflation rate 3.9%. per annum.

Term interest rates Commonwealth Bankof Australia.

Interest rates.

All rates displayed in the table below are per annum.

Balance. AUD.

Interest rate.

$0 - $9,999

0.01%

$10,000 - $19,999

5.75%

$20,000 - $49,999

6.25%

$50,000 - $99,999

6.25%

$100,000 - $249,000

6.80%

$250,000 - $499,999

6.80%

$500,000 or more

7.00%

[disgruntled]

Well, who knows where this market goes? People don't believe in a lot of things nowdays like Global Warming, the war on terrorism, etc. If any of you know what the market is going to do then good luck to you. If you had held you stocks during the great depression you might have made billions on them by now if the companies are still in business. If this is a great depression then in 50 years some people will look back and say you should have just held your stocks through it. But the people who actually can time the market will make more money because they'll sell out then buy in gaining shares on those who just hold through hard times. Holding through hard times just keeps your share of the company stabile it doesn't offer any more profit than those who buy in just as the market starts to move up.

Everyone seems to be a know-it-all. It sure would be good if someone in this world actually accepted responsibility for their words and actions.

As for me I am unsure of the future. It doesn't look good until 2009 from what the big boys are saying. Then there are those who are saying things look even worse. Whatever the case someone is going to get rich during the next few years if not in the next day,week, month or decade. You've got to play to win they say.

[johnnyk]

More cut-and-paste gloom and doom. Keep smiling, folks!

Government is the Largest Employer

The Fading American Economy

By PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy lost 98,000 private sector jobs in March, half of which were in manufacturing. Today 13,643,000 Americans are employed in manufacturing, of which 9,849,000 are production workers.

Government employs 22,387,000 Americans, 8,744,000 more than manufacturing. Even the category leisure and hospitality employs 13,682,000 Americans, slightly more than manufacturing. There are as many waitresses and bartenders as production workers.

Wholesale and retail trade employ 21,467,000 Americans. Professional and business services employ 18,036,000 Americans of which 8,368,000 are in administrative and waste services. Education and health services employ 18,699,000 Americans.

Financial activities employ 8,228,000 Americans. The information sector employs 3,010,000. Transportation and warehousing employ 4,532,000. Construction employs 7,338,000, and natural resources, mining and logging employ 751,000. Other services such as repair, laundry, and membership associations employ 5,516,000 Americans.

This is the portrait of the US economy according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is an economy in which government is the largest employer. Manufacturing employment comprises just under 10% of total employment and about 12% of private sector employment. Everything else is services, and not particularly high level services.

Is this a portrait of a super economy?

To help answer the question, consider that US imports in 2007 were 17% of US GDP, according to the National Income and Product Account tables provided by the Bureau of Economic Affairs. In contrast, the BEA industry tables show that in 2006 (2007 data not yet available) US manufacturing comprised only 11.7% of US GDP.

If US imports actually exceed total US manufacturing output by 5% of GDP, it does not seem possible that the US can close its massive trade deficit. Even if every item manufactured in the US was exported, the US would still have a large trade deficit.

The NIPA and industry tables from which the percentages come are not calculated identically, and I do not know to what extent differences might exaggerate the differences between the percentages. However, it seems unlikely that mere calculation differences would account for US imports exceeding US manufacturing output.

If the US cannot close its trade deficit, it is unlikely that the US dollar can remain the world reserve currency. If the dollar were to lose the reserve currency role, the US government would not be able to finance its annual red ink budget by borrowing from foreigners, as the US saving rate is about zero, and the US would not be able to pay its import bill in its own currency. The rest of the world continues to hold depreciating US currency, because the dollar is the world reserve currency. The dollar is certainly not a good investment having declined dramatically against other traded currencies.

From March 2007 to March 2008 the US economy created 1.5 million new jobs (in services). Legal and illegal immigration and work visas for foreigners exceed US job creation.

During the current school year, 3.3 million high school students are expected to graduate. If we assume that half will go on to college, that leaves 1.6 million entering the work force. College enrollment in 2007 totaled 18 million. If we assume 20% graduate, that makes another 3.6 million job seekers for a total of 5.2 million. Clearly, immigration, work visas, and high school and college graduates exceed the 1.5 million jobs created by the economy. Unless retirements opened up enough jobs for graduates, the unemployment rate has to rise.

The US unemployment rate is creeping up, and according to John Williams, the official unemployment rate greatly understates the real rate of unemployment. Williams has followed the changes that government has made to the official indices over the years in order to spin a more politically palatable picture. Williams uses the original methodology prior to the decades of spin. The original way of measuring unemployment indicates the current rate of unemployment in the US to be 13%, much higher than the 5.1% official number.

Williams also calculates the CPI according to the same way it was officially calculated prior to the recent decades of spin. Williams estimates the current CPI at 12%, three times higher than the official 4% figure.

Williams reports that upward growth biases built into GDP modeling since the early 1980s "have rendered this important series nearly worthless as an indicator of economic activity." Williams estimates that US GDP growth has been in negative territory during almost all of the 21st century. The notion that the US is just now entering a recession is nonsense if we have in fact been in recession for most of the 21st century.

America's post-World War II economic dominance was based on the destruction of other economies by war and socialism. It is a different world now, and Americans have given little thought to the economic challenges of the 21st century.

Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration. He was Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal editorial page and Contributing Editor of National Review. He is coauthor of The Tyranny of Good Intentions.

[siamamerican]

Just read this article:

Ailing Economy Could Be a Blast from the Past

http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/mo...0dWj5LZZBlO7sMF

The author uses real data to show the current doom and gloom is laughable. Will the markets drop more - I don't know, but I can guarantee they will go up at some point. This is a great oportunity for the brave to make some money and the meek to wait till it's safe to enter. Hmmm, like some did in 1986, 2000, late 2007,...

When everybody fears the market, get in. When everybody loves the market, be very careful. I think Warren B said that recently.

[johnnyk]

When everybody fears the market, get in. When everybody loves the market, be very careful. I think Warren B said that recently.

True. Someone once said, "When taxi drivers start giving stock tips, its time to get out of the market."

[flying]

True. Someone once said, "When taxi drivers start giving stock tips, its time to get out of the market."

JOE KENNEDY, a famous rich guy in his day, exited the stock market in timely fashion after a shoeshine boy gave him some stock tips. He figured that when the shoeshine boys have tips, the market is too popular for its own good,

This was in 1929

Edited April 20, 2008 by flying

[LaoPo]

True. Someone once said, "When taxi drivers start giving stock tips, its time to get out of the market."

JOE KENNEDY, a famous rich guy in his day, exited the stock market in timely fashion after a shoeshine boy gave him some stock tips. He figured that when the shoeshine boys have tips, the market is too popular for its own good,

This was in 1929

And, if you're an honest guy, you better tell us next time you quoted that from.....:

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/for...11503/index.htm

(FORTUNE Magazine) – JOE KENNEDY, a famous rich guy in his day, exited the stock market in timely fashion after a shoeshine boy gave him some stock tips. He figured that when the shoeshine boys have tips, the market is too popular for its own good, a theory also advanced by Bernard Baruch, another vested interest who described the scene before the big Crash:

"Taxi drivers told you what to buy. The shoeshine boy could give you a summary of the day's financial news as he worked with rag and polish. An old beggar who regularly patrolled the street in front of my office now gave me tips and, I suppose, spent the money I and others gave him in the market. My cook had a brokerage account and followed the ticker closely. Her paper profits were quickly blown away in the gale of 1929."

LaoPo

[flying]

True. Someone once said, "When taxi drivers start giving stock tips, its time to get out of the market."

JOE KENNEDY, a famous rich guy in his day, exited the stock market in timely fashion after a shoeshine boy gave him some stock tips. He figured that when the shoeshine boys have tips, the market is too popular for its own good,

This was in 1929

And, if you're an honest guy, you better tell us next time you quoted that from.....:

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/for...11503/index.htm

(FORTUNE Magazine) – JOE KENNEDY, a famous rich guy in his day, exited the stock market in timely fashion after a shoeshine boy gave him some stock tips. He figured that when the shoeshine boys have tips, the market is too popular for its own good, a theory also advanced by Bernard Baruch, another vested interest who described the scene before the big Crash:

"Taxi drivers told you what to buy. The shoeshine boy could give you a summary of the day's financial news as he worked with rag and polish. An old beggar who regularly patrolled the street in front of my office now gave me tips and, I suppose, spent the money I and others gave him in the market. My cook had a brokerage account and followed the ticker closely. Her paper profits were quickly blown away in the gale of 1929."

LaoPo

Yes sorry about that.

I knew it was a Kennedy quote but did not remember the year so I googled When shoe shine start giving stock tips, its time to get out of the market."

But yes that was the confirmation site.

Thanks

Edited April 20, 2008 by flying

[lioness]

Hey Mr Naam

Greatest Nation on Earth!

said tongue in cheek I hope.