16 Provinces Alerted To Cope With Tropical Cyclone Nargis

[NanLaew]

Any international/domestic flights effected yet or expected delays. How long is this Nargis expected to last?

Minimal effect on any air traffic as any flights can detour around it although it is diminishing in strength now. It will be history by midnight.

[bubba]

I suspect we'll get lots of rain but the mountains should slow the wind speeds right down by the time it gets here...could trigger local t-storms with very localized heavy winds for a short time tho...

Have a look at this tracking chart:

http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/io0108.gif

The tracking point at 03/18Z is just about over Mae Sariang and the winds are predicted to be at 100 kph, and still at a sustained 50 kph all the way up at Mae Sai.

You mean 55 kph gusting to 75 kph.

No, I meant 100 kph as was indicated in the chart that was up when I entered that post. But it's good to see that the latest update shows lower wind speeds and the track sort of ends there rather than continuing all the way up to Mae Sai.

[bubba]

Here's a webcam in Mae Hong Son province that seems to be live at the moment. Looks sort of wet right now, but nothing dramatic so far.

http://www.soppong.com/live1.html

[Bryan in Isaan]

Good luck to all those in the path of the storm. There seems to be lots of rain all over. NE Thailand got showers throughout the "dry" season and heavy rain every day last week. The farmers are planting rice already - almost two months early.

Bryan

[Garry]

I just talked to my wife and they recieved no significant winds or rain (to talk about) on the eastern outskirts of Chiang Rai last night or this morning.

[dingdongrb]

Here's a webcam in Mae Hong Son province that seems to be live at the moment. Looks sort of wet right now, but nothing dramatic so far.

http://www.soppong.com/live1.html

Thanks for that link with the live webcam Bubba, but I am wondering what it means when it says "Occasionally live from the Seven Elephants Cafe"? 'Occasionally' in regards with.......

By the way to anyone that is interested, I'm in the Hangdong area of Chiang Mai where last night there was only little rain off and on. Since I am a 'stone's throw' from the airport I could see flights taking off and landing pretty much on schedule all evening. There were some big nasty black clouds hoovering against the mountains. And my power was off for about 5 or 6 hours. But overall it seemed just like a typical rainstorm....

[tijnebijn]

Oh my and I wanted to do a visa run to Mae Sai .....

But I still got time till the seventh , hope its all over then ....

I am pretty sure the Payu came because I got to do the run ,

those dam_n weather Gods

[george]

Update:

Flash flood, mudslide warning in 16 provinces as cyclone Nargis nears Thailand

BANGKOK: -- Sixteen provinces, mostly in the North, are on alert for possible flash floods and mudslides as early as Saturday through Tuesday as tropical cyclone Nargis moves towards Thailand from Myanmar, according to a warning issued by Thailand's Meteorlogical Department.

The announcement said cyclone Nargis at 4am Saturday was about 400 kilometers southwest of Thailand's Myanmar border province of Mae Hong Son, northwest of Bangkok, moving at a speed of about 15 kilometres per hour.

Provinces in the North and Central regions are expected to have heavy rains through Tuesday, the weather department, warning that villagers in risk-prone areas of 16 provinces must be alert for possible flash floods and mudslides.

Waves in the Andaman Sea are anticipated to be high and small boats are advised to stay ashore, the announcement said.

Meanwhile, the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation office in Lampang province in the north said it had instructed the agencies five offices in the North to closely track cyclone Nargis' movements closely following heavy rains in the area in the past few days.

--TNA 2008-05-03

[Chiangmai Cheers]

As a retired meteorologist living in Chiangmai, I have enjoyed reading this topic. It is always an enjoyable experience to listen to the views of the real experts. The various meteorological services around the world seem to be very much at odds with our experts, however. Weather Underworld is predicting winds of about 5 kts or less over the next few days. The BBC weather centre is pretty similar, and the latest TAF issued for Chiangmai Airport is :

TAF:VTCC 030330Z 030606 VRB03KT 9999 BKN032 BKN110 TEMPO 0712 VRB06KT 5000 RA BKN030 BKN100

The next 24 hours should tell an interesting story.

[bubba]

As a retired meteorologist living in Chiangmai, I have enjoyed reading this topic. It is always an enjoyable experience to listen to the views of the real experts. The various meteorological services around the world seem to be very much at odds with our experts, however. Weather Underworld is predicting winds of about 5 kts or less over the next few days. The BBC weather centre is pretty similar, and the latest TAF issued for Chiangmai Airport is :

TAF:VTCC 030330Z 030606 VRB03KT 9999 BKN032 BKN110 TEMPO 0712 VRB06KT 5000 RA BKN030 BKN100

The next 24 hours should tell an interesting story.

Meteorology certainly is an inexact science. While BBC are predicting winds of 6 mph in Chiang Mai, the US Navy Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are predicting winds of 35 kts gusting to 45 over in Mae Hong Son after midnight tonight. The JTWC have changed their predictions up and down all day, but perhaps the JTWC experts are at odds with BBC's? Of course the Chiang Mai TAF isn't showing a whole lot since the centre of the storm system is still hundreds of kms away.

BTW, I am no meteorological expert, but I pretended to be one on several occasions from the left hand side of a cockpit. :-)

[harpman88]

I suspect we'll get lots of rain but the mountains should slow the wind speeds right down by the time it gets here...could trigger local t-storms with very localized heavy winds for a short time tho...

Have a look at this tracking chart:

http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/io0108.gif

The tracking point at 03/18Z is just about over Mae Sariang and the winds are predicted to be at 100 kph, and still at a sustained 50 kph all the way up at Mae Sai.

Cloudhopper is correct when he says the mountainous terrain will have a weakening effect on the storm.Also,tropical cyclones get all their energy being over warm water and once they're over land the storm's "fuel" source is shut off. The max 'sustained" winds will be very close to the center of circulation so this area will not be very wide. heavy rains will most surely be the biggest concern for North Thailand especially if the storm ends up being a "slow mover"I took it upon myself to learn a little about these things while living in the New Orleans area for 24 years.

[george]

Stranded tourists rescued by Thai navy ships

Stranded tourists rescued

Cyclone prompts mudslide alert

Bad weather caused by Cyclone Nargis forced navy ships to rescue stranded holidaymakers from islands in the Andaman Sea yesterday, while a mudslide alert is in place in 16 northern provinces. HTMS Thayan Chon rescued 302 tourists, both Thai and foreigners, from the Surin islands after they were stranded by high seas and strong winds caused by the cyclone.

The tourists arrived safely at port in Khura Buri district yesterday.

The rough seas made it impossible for shuttle ferries to operate.

The tropical cyclone, packing 190-kilometre-per-hour winds, ripped through Rangoon early yesterday, tearing off roofs, uprooting trees and knocking out electricity, although no deaths were reported. Officials from the weather department said Nargis was expected to continue its northeasterly path. At 4pm yesterday, the cyclone was 180km southwest of Mae Hong Son.

Vice-Adm Supoj Prueksa, commander of the Third Fleet, said another navy ship was sent to rescue 125 tourists stranded on the Similan islands on Friday night. They could not return to shore because of bad weather. He said navy ships, helicopters and medical teams were on standby around the clock for the rescue operation.

Several northern provinces were bracing for flash floods as heavy rain was reported over much of the North.

A mudslide warning was issued in villages in 12 of the northern provinces.

Thada Sattha, chief of the Mae Hong Son weather station, said Nargis was losing strength but was expected to bring heavy rainfall in Mae Hong Son last night.

The Central region as well as some provinces in the East are also expected to experience heavy rain.

The provinces to be affected by Nargis are Mae Hong Son, Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Tak, Kamphaeng Phet, Lamphun, Lampang, Phrae, Uttaradit, Sukhothai, Phichit, Phayao, Phitsanulok, Nakhon Sawan, Uthai Thani, Kanchanaburi, Ranong, Chanthaburi and Trat.

Chiang Mai deputy governor Pairoj Saengpuwong ordered disaster prevention and mitigation officials to make the necessary preparations and warn people to be on alert, especially those living in low-lying areas. He said landslide prevention measures had been taken in 36 villages in Chiang Mai.

--Bangkok Post 2008-05-04

[mekongmarine]

please, can anyone, tell me whats the weather in hua hin like. thankyou.

[Chiangmai Cheers]

please, can anyone, tell me whats the weather in hua hin like. thankyou.

try having a look at the following link http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/48475.html

[LaoPo]

Burma cyclone death toll 'at 243'

Eyewitnesses say Rangoon is littered with debris

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/7382836.stm Pictures of the Cyclone

This Nasa satellite photo from Friday shows the eye of Cyclone Nargis just off Burma's Irrawaddy region.

A tropical cyclone has killed at least 243 people in Burma and damaged thousands of buildings, according to state television.

Parts of the Irrawaddy region were hit particularly badly, with three out of four buildings reportedly blown down in one district.

Burma has declared Irrawaddy and four other regions, including the main city Rangoon, to be disaster areas.

Rangoon has been without power and water, its streets full of debris.

Winds of about 190km/h (120mph) battered the Irrawaddy, Rangoon, Bago, Karen and Mon regions.

Military and police personnel have been carrying out rescue operations.

Cyclone Nargis has since moved towards Thailand where storm warnings have been issued. However, it appears to be lessening in force.

Phone links down

In Irrawaddy's Labutta township, 75% of buildings collapsed and 20% had their roofs ripped off, state TV said.

In the Irrawaddy delta region as a whole, the cyclone brought down more than 20,000 houses.

In Rangoon, internet and phone connections have been down since the storm drew near, making it difficult to confirm the extent of the damage.

Official media report that four people were killed and four vessels sank in the former Burmese capital's harbour.

A UN regional official told Reuters news agency it would take several days to assess the scale of the damage.

"There does not seem to be a high number of casualties but for sure there is a lot of damage to property and infrastructure," Therje Skavdal said, speaking from Bangkok.

'Like Katrina'

One unnamed Rangoon resident described the damage in the city for the BBC Burmese service.

"Everything was wrecked," he said.

"Roofs of the houses and satellite dishes were blown away. Windows were broken at Yuzana Plaza. Roadside billboards were all blown away... Everything is in a mess."

Many roofs were reportedly ripped off even sturdy buildings in Rangoon.

"I have never seen anything like it," one retired government worker told Reuters.

"It reminded me of when Hurricane Katrina hit the United States."

A trishaw driver in Rangoon, who did not want to be identified, complained that the security forces were not doing enough to help.

"Where are all those uniformed people who are always ready to beat civilians?" he said.

"They should come out in full force and help clean up the areas and restore electricity."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7382298.stm With Footage of the Cyclone

LaoPo

[taxexile]

please, can anyone, tell me whats the weather in hua hin like. thankyou.

its been humid , cloudy and dull for the past three or four days , with occasional light showers.

[roygsd]

Hi, anyone got any idea of the weather situation in the Kumphawaphi area of Udon Thani at present or the next few days please?

Wifes family are in the middle of building work ( dont ask! I am in the uk and its giving me an headache already!) and any info is likely to be better than I am recieving through the domestic channels.

Many Thanks

RoyGSd

[KireB]

We just came back from Ko Mak near to Ko Chang and had 3 days of rain showers!

What a waste of the May-holidays.

Wonder whether this has to do with the weather conditions over Myamar?

[sunreader]

4000+ dead and nobody is discussing this?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7384041.stm

Is there a thread elsewhere on here?

[sbk]

4000+ dead and nobody is discussing this?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7384041.stm

Is there a thread elsewhere on here?

SE Asia forum:

Cyclone Hits Burma On Weekend, Killing At Least 3900, More Than 3000 Missing, revised toll

[robanywhere]

We just came back from Ko Mak near to Ko Chang and had 3 days of rain showers!

What a waste of the May-holidays.

Wonder whether this has to do with the weather conditions over Myamar?

Likewise. Just returned from 5 days in Phuket, the last 2-1/2 were raining. We booked a snorkel trip for yesterday, but cancelled due to the sea state. 2-3m waves (later found out that the operator, Island Hopper, was not sending their boats out). I've never seem this much normal surf action down there, it looked like there might be some beach erosion as well. There was water spilling over the beach road north of Patong on the way to Kamala.

The Thai gvmt meteorological modeling shows a gradual decrease in the waves over the next few days. Good thing Nargis took a left turn in the Bay of Bengal (my sympathies to Myanmar, however). http://www.weather.go.th/en/

Edited May 5, 2008 by robanywhere

[racefan]

We just came back from Ko Mak near to Ko Chang and had 3 days of rain showers!

What a waste of the May-holidays.

Wonder whether this has to do with the weather conditions over Myamar?

Likewise. Just returned from 5 days in Phuket, the last 2-1/2 were raining. We booked a snorkel trip for yesterday, but cancelled due to the sea state. 2-3m waves (later found out that the operator, Island Hopper, was not sending their boats out). I've never seem this much normal surf action down there, it looked like there might be some beach erosion as well. There was water spilling over the beach road north of Patong on the way to Kamala.

The Thai gvmt meteorological modeling shows a gradual decrease in the waves over the next few days. Good thing Nargis took a left turn in the Bay of Bengal (my sympathies to Myanmar, however). http://www.weather.go.th/en/

I was complaining about the rain ruining my golf on Sunday, surmising it was probably the tail end of Nargis.

Then I see on t.v today the devastation in Mynamar and hear that the death toll is likely to exceed 15,000.

Kind of puts everything into perspective doesn't it?

I hope the aid money gets to the victims and does not line the pockets of the corrupt military government!!

[Yoknapatawpha]

We had three days of torrential downpour here in Kunming, but the sun is out today (as of an hour ago) and revving up our solar water heaters again!

[99BigLad99]

Thanks for the warning I think we will lock the windows tonight then save getting up in the middle of the night

Cheers

Keep the shiny side up Merv!

```````````````

Yes, teelack tells me it's been raining a LOT up in Nong Bhua Lamphu Province the last couple weeks.

The other day when I talked to her at mama's place the rain was so loud on the metal roof I could barely hear her!

Hope everone takes needed precautions in the path of the storm.

~WISteve

Hi Steve getting very native now days

the storms never did appear in this area no real heavy rain so to speak of just the usual sort of down pour for a couple of hours and back to sunshine and heat now

[mahtin]

We just came back from Ko Mak near to Ko Chang and had 3 days of rain showers!

What a waste of the May-holidays.

Wonder whether this has to do with the weather conditions over Myamar?

Likewise. Just returned from 5 days in Phuket, the last 2-1/2 were raining. We booked a snorkel trip for yesterday, but cancelled due to the sea state. 2-3m waves (later found out that the operator, Island Hopper, was not sending their boats out). I've never seem this much normal surf action down there, it looked like there might be some beach erosion as well. There was water spilling over the beach road north of Patong on the way to Kamala.

The Thai gvmt meteorological modeling shows a gradual decrease in the waves over the next few days. Good thing Nargis took a left turn in the Bay of Bengal (my sympathies to Myanmar, however). http://www.weather.go.th/en/

I was complaining about the rain ruining my golf on Sunday, surmising it was probably the tail end of Nargis.

Then I see on t.v today the devastation in Mynamar and hear that the death toll is likely to exceed 15,000.

Kind of puts everything into perspective doesn't it?

I hope the aid money gets to the victims and does not line the pockets of the corrupt military government!!

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/worl...icle3879492.ece

Now we're looking at 50,000

[ratcatcher]

4000+ dead and nobody is discussing this?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7384041.stm

Is there a thread elsewhere on here?

SE Asia forum:

Cyclone Hits Burma On Weekend, Killing At Least 3900, More Than 3000 Missing, revised toll

It's about time somebody started getting really serious with the situation in Burma as it spirals out of control. Next thing we read will be massive disease outbreaks. I am not knowledgable on diseases but isn't this kind of scenario a breeding ground for typhoid and cholera?

Meanwhile the criminals led by Than Shwe in their new secure capital are determined to carry on with the referendum.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/05/09...al_30072687.php

They are terrified of what the foreign aid workers and agencies will see in that tragic country.

Meanwhile Samak will travel to Rangoon to have tea and biscuits with the criminals and try and talk some sense into them.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/05/09...es_30072652.php

If countries in the world like Burma were instead families in a village, the police would have been called a long time ago on the grounds of human abuse. However that's naive.

Nothing will change until the death toll reaches over 200,000. That's possible given the extent of delay and neglect.

Good luck Samak.

I just copied this from the BBC site:

AID PLEDGES

UK $10m

UN $10m

Japan $10m

US $3m

France $3m

Australia $2.8m

Strange, I don't see any aid coming from the oil-rich Gulf states, India or China. Funny that.

Yet Australia with 21 million population has generously offered almost the same as the United States.

This is where nations show their true colors.

I guess China needs the money for it's sacred Olympics.

Edited May 9, 2008 by ratcatcher

[sbk]

The Burmese situation is already being discussed in the SE Asia forum thread and all Burma news updates are being posted there