Drop In Tourism Over Past 6 Months

[whatsoever]

Be assured of my gratuity.

But please post the source, as there's nothing available on the usual sites.

News item in todays Pattaya Mail

[Payboy]

Be assured of my gratuity.

But please post the source, as there's nothing available on the usual sites.

News item in todays Pattaya Mail

that settles it then.....

[Ulysses G.]

Sorry, but Thailand is much cheaper than Australia or any other Western type of country. Once you pay for the plane ticket, the rest is mostly all gravy.

Correct wording should be: "Thailand can be had on the cheap, cheaper than Australia or any other Western....".

But it is not. Apples to apples, it is more expensive.

My groceries (fish, meat, bread, fruit, wine) in Japan comes from places like Siam Paragon or Emporium. The places are also elite but not as much as in Thai as everybody and on average Japanese are better off than Thais in general.

Those things are about 15-20% more expensive in Bangkok than than in Tokyo. The goods are the same, have to be imported to both countries, probably less efficient channels in Thai and hence the prices are higher.

Holiday hotel - matched in quality - is cheaper in Singapore or Langkawi, so much so that it even offsets airline ticket on SQ, not on Air Asia or someone like that.

Thailand, still, "can be" had on the cheap, that's why backpackers are roaming around as ever.

And also poverty-packing westerners asking for 600B room with Internet and pool in Pattaya.

Come on dude.

It is fairly easy to find a hotel with air-con, cable TV and a swimming pool in Pattaya for about 600 baht - Honey Inn, right across the street from the beach springs to mind. It is impossible to find anything near that price in Singapore. Maybe 6,000 baht would do!

As far as food in Bangkok being anywhere close to the price in Tokyo, don't make me laugh. Maybe a few specific imported items like wine, but in general, Thailand is much, much cheaper. I eat a big vegetarian lunch every day for 50 baht. A similar type of meal in Tokyo would be a minimum of 500 baht.

You mentioned that you "shop in places like Siam Paragon or Emporium." Maybe that is the problem. Forget the trendy ripoff places and try shopping in stores for us common folk.

[whatsoever]

PS traffic is heavier than 10 years ago because more people have more cars

Yes...and why do more people have cars? I would submit that economic conditions are not that bad in Thailand, and particularly in Pattaya. How else could all these Thai afford to buy AND FUEL all the cars and motorbikes clogging up every road and soi in Pattaya!

Sure, things are going to slow down somewhat...especially from long-haul visitors. But as I pointed out, there are literally hundreds of millions of potential Thailand travel customers in Thailand's own backyard. I used the example of my friend only to point out that not EVERY business is suffering bad business...not that none are.

Maybe monger numbers are on a permanent declining slope due to numerous factors that have been discussed over the past few years and there are just too many bars and restaurants that cater to that tourist segment. They will have to retrench or come up with alternative business models.

Your defensive, opposing views always ignore the point of facts. TAT have reported 30% drop in tourists - FA to do with where Thais got the finance to purchase their new cars over the past few years

[britmaveric]

...... Once you pay for the plane ticket, the rest is mostly all gravy.

Don't forget the price of the hotel due to exchange rate, unless you can SLEEP at the WAT

Hotel prices are next to nothing.

[think_too_mut]

...... Once you pay for the plane ticket, the rest is mostly all gravy.

Don't forget the price of the hotel due to exchange rate, unless you can SLEEP at the WAT

Hotel prices are next to nothing.

True for me, I pay no hotels.

Could you repeat that one about "hotels prices are next to nothing", just for fun?

Or it requires more than one line of drivel, far above your capacity?

[Ulysses G.]

Basic hotel in New York or London $200.

Hotel with all mod cons and swimming pool in Bangkok $30.

[britmaveric]

TTM - well best to keep things simple for you mate, public service for TV.

[think_too_mut]

Basic hotel in New York or London $200.

Hotel with all mod cons and swimming pool in Bangkok $30.

I would agree. But those hotels are not the place where I would take my family.

While our baby was small, we would go to sub-prime hotels (1200-1500B), we only needed the aircon, a spacious room and some exotic environment.

Now, it does not hold water any more.

Edited August 8, 2008 by think_too_mut

[LaoPo]

Low bet

5 Chinese = 1 farang …….in spending

And the chinese like to eat in group,...cuz group eating is much much cheaper!!!....unlike the farangs

You just lost your low bet...

Table_Summary_2007.xls

Chinese spend more/day (in Thailand) than the average European and just a little less than the American or Ozzie, but more than the Kiwi.

There you go....

LaoPo

LaoPo, as much as I would like to believe the stats you have enclosed, not sure how it was measured.

Don't know if Chinese roam Thai boards asking how to avoid paying airport fee for taxis (jump in when they drop off passengers at departures) or catch a bus or train, anything but taxi or a limo...but farangs do that in droves, right here, on this board.

Last year's results showed 45% of all international tourists were Asians.

1. Well, of course we have nothing more than the 'official' numbers from TAT; what else could we rely on ?

2. the 45% number is incorrect; 60% of all international tourists are South/East Asian.

LaoPo

[think_too_mut]

Low bet

5 Chinese = 1 farang …….in spending

And the chinese like to eat in group,...cuz group eating is much much cheaper!!!....unlike the farangs

You just lost your low bet...

Table_Summary_2007.xls

Chinese spend more/day (in Thailand) than the average European and just a little less than the American or Ozzie, but more than the Kiwi.

There you go....

LaoPo

LaoPo, as much as I would like to believe the stats you have enclosed, not sure how it was measured.

Don't know if Chinese roam Thai boards asking how to avoid paying airport fee for taxis (jump in when they drop off passengers at departures) or catch a bus or train, anything but taxi or a limo...but farangs do that in droves, right here, on this board.

Last year's results showed 45% of all international tourists were Asians.

1. Well, of course we have nothing more than the 'official' numbers from TAT; what else could we rely on ?

2. the 45% number is incorrect; 60% of all international tourists are South/East Asian.

LaoPo

Well, what I saw was the trend that the Asians are the No.1 tourists. More than from any other geography.

I am not going to dispute the stats you brought in (not that they are a in concrete) , what I am after is - the farangs from the "farang world" are not so important as they would like to believe.

[JetsetBkk]

30% Drop In Tourism Over Past 6 Months, Its bad

No - it's good. I like it nice and quiet.

[wileycoyote]

Makes it interesting ....how will things develop -aim for affluent market or mass market ?

[jackspratt]

Chinese group turns up for a week. Spend every evening in the restaurant (attached to condo). Lots of them, drinking, eating, having fun. Order? 7 boiled rice please Profit? 30 baht. Total.

The Chinese visitors must change their eating habits and diets while they are here.

In more then 3 years of living in China, and eating in restaurants from the most basic noodle joints and dumpling places, up to $500 a head restaurants, I never experienced Chinese eating only boiled rice.

Perhaps it was the food you were putting on.

Or then again, maybe it is just a China bash.

[teacup]

Hotel with all mod cons and swimming pool in Bangkok $30.

Well I don't know bout you......but I probably wouldn't call those under $30 ....a "HOTEL".... esp. in BKK w/ the current exchange rate

[teacup]

Low bet

5 Chinese = 1 farang …….in spending

And the chinese like to eat in group,...cuz group eating is much much cheaper!!!....unlike the farangs

You just lost your low bet...

Table_Summary_2007.xls

Chinese spend more/day (in Thailand) than the average European and just a little less than the American or Ozzie, but more than the Kiwi.

There you go....

LaoPo

well... who would have guessed - some of the euro mongers are amongst the lowest spenders....

south africa tops..followed by india....

LaoPo

Well I don't know as how is your statistic came about.

But I saw those chinese with my own eyes, so I stand behind my own "eyes" sampling survey.

Edited August 8, 2008 by teacup

[jietjon]

The TAT have announced a 30% drop in tourism over the past 6 months. Pattaya being the worst affected.

I personaly think the worst is yet to come. What do you think?

NB. Property developers and agents need not answer

As a tourist, have been visiting Los for past 5 years, but this year does seem a lot more expensive. The cheap holiday destination of thailand is no longer so. Just as everywhere is getting more expensive i know, due to oil prices. Nobody picking on thailand. In the past it got the tag of bieng chirpy. Some people cant see by thier wallets and dont appreciate that EVERYWHERE now is more costlier.

[Spee]

The TAT have announced a 30% drop in tourism over the past 6 months. Pattaya being the worst affected.

I personaly think the worst is yet to come. What do you think?

What do I think?

I think the OP reminds me of a humorous yet very true quote, which goes something like this:

"Beware the man who uses statistics as a drunkard uses a lamp post ... for support rather than for illumination."

To that I would then add, always answer initial questions with more questions. Ergo ...

What are the facts?

- What are the demographics of the 30%? From which countries do they originate?

- Is it actually just 30% of a few countries, or are tourist numbers from some countries increasing while others are decreasing, resulting in a net -30%?

- What were the typical destinations of the 30% who used to come, but now do not?

- What were the typical spending habits at those destinations? (how much total and by percent on hotels, taxis, food, bars, shopping, tourist spots, local spots only or day trips to other areas, etc.)

- How are the demographics captured and interpreted? Is a Brit who arrives by way of Dubai counted as a Brit? Or is he/she counted as from Dubai?

- Does the data captured constitute valid samples? Is there a reasonable cross section? What are the error margins? Are any of the data correlated?

If no one has answers to these kinds of questions from which reasonable conclusions may possibly be reached, everything else is more or less speculative gibberish.

[DP25]

Seriously , who in their right mind brings their families to vacation in thailand. This is no place for young uns!

Millions of people per year. Get out of Nana and Walking Street and you may see them. Thailand is great for families.

[LaoPo]

The TAT have announced a 30% drop in tourism over the past 6 months. Pattaya being the worst affected.

I personaly think the worst is yet to come. What do you think?

What do I think?

I think the OP reminds me of a humorous yet very true quote, which goes something like this:

"Beware the man who uses statistics as a drunkard uses a lamp post ... for support rather than for illumination."

To that I would then add, always answer initial questions with more questions. Ergo ...

What are the facts?

- What are the demographics of the 30%? From which countries do they originate?

- Is it actually just 30% of a few countries, or are tourist numbers from some countries increasing while others are decreasing, resulting in a net -30%?

- What were the typical destinations of the 30% who used to come, but now do not?

- What were the typical spending habits at those destinations? (how much total and by percent on hotels, taxis, food, bars, shopping, tourist spots, local spots only or day trips to other areas, etc.)

- How are the demographics captured and interpreted? Is a Brit who arrives by way of Dubai counted as a Brit? Or is he/she counted as from Dubai?

- Does the data captured constitute valid samples? Is there a reasonable cross section? What are the error margins? Are any of the data correlated?

If no one has answers to these kinds of questions from which reasonable conclusions may possibly be reached, everything else is more or less speculative gibberish.

The problem is that TAT* doesn't supply the numbers and percentages of inbound tourism this year, not even for the month of January 2008...

My guess? TAT is afraid of (officially) publish the numbers but I'm sure they KNOW the numbers.

The only numbers available are the 2007 numbers/%'s but the major tourist countries from Asia declined already in 2007 (China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Taiwan all declined)

The countries which increased their so called tourism to Thailand were Laos, Myanmar, Indonesia but I don't think it is tourism as such from those countries.

THAILAND_2007_tourist_numbers_res_1_12_1.XLS

* + Immigration Bureau, Police department

LaoPo

[sbk]

Well, it does not appear that TAT announced a 30% decline anywhere at all. Topic title amended to show dubious nature of original post.

TAT Lowers Tourism Numbers

Sunday, 20 July 2008

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has lowered their tourism arrivals for this year and next. TAT has sharply cut its projection for the number of international visitors and tourism revenue next year due to soaring oil prices, which are discouraging international travel and have led to cuts in inbound flights. phuket.jpgIt targets only a 3.3-per-cent growth in the number of international visitors in 2009, a sharp downward revision from the original projection of 10 per cent. From a projected 17 million, or a 10-per-cent growth, the TAT expects only 16 million travellers to visit the country. About 15 million visitors are expected in 2008.

The TAT also halved it revenue-growth projection for next year to 5 per cent, though spending per head per trip is expected to increase from Bt38,760 this year to Bt39,375. Revenue projection for this year is Bt600 billion The authority is maintaining next year's domestic projection of 87 million trips with revenue of Bt407 billion.

Deputy governor for international marketing Santichai Eua-Chongprasit said the three key negative factors were oil prices, world economic uncertainty and fewer flights into the Kingdom. He said the travel industry, especially long-haul routes, would be affected as the oil price may climb to US$200 (Bt6,800) per barrel.

Source: The Nation

[LaoPo]

The problem is that TAT* doesn't supply the numbers and percentages of inbound tourism this year, not even for the month of January 2008...

My guess? TAT is afraid of (officially) publish the numbers but I'm sure they KNOW the numbers.

LaoPo

I hate writing without research because it could be considered nonsense...

Maybe the above quote (by myself) is due to the following FACTS:

1. Thailand had 14.464.228 tourists in 2007 (that include 1,5 - 2 million 'tourists' from neighboring countries of which I doubt if they are to be considered 'tourists' from countries like Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and even Malaysia -largest number-)

2. TAT published a report (link below*) early July 2008 and withdrew their earlier projection of 17 Million tourists for 2009 and the new number is: 16 Million arrivals in 2009. That's a correction of -1 Million tourists.

"TAT....announced a slightly conservative target of 630 billion Baht in foreign tourism revenue from 16 million visitor arrivals for next year=2009."

3. TAT's projection for 2008 is 15.48 million arrivals.

4. IF TAT (as the OP says it is) indeed said that arrivals in the first 6 months are down -30% the situation would be as follows:

January > June 2007 had 6.954.752 international tourist arrivals ** see link

January > June 2008: -30% = 4.868.326 tourists; that's a shortage of more than 2 Million tourists in 2008 versus 2007

IF the -30% would be for the total of 2008, Thailand would have a shortage of 4,3 Million tourists and end up with 10,1 Million tourists.

* http://www.tatnews.org/tat_release/detail.asp?id=3877 TAT GETS REALISTIC IN TARGETING TOURISM REVENUES AND TOURIST ARRIVALS FOR 2009

** THAILAND_tourists_Jan_June_2007_res_1_6.XLS

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Well, it does not appear that TAT announced a 30% decline anywhere at all. Topic title amended to show dubious nature of original post.

TAT Lowers Tourism Numbers

Sunday, 20 July 2008

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has lowered their tourism arrivals for this year and next. TAT has sharply cut its projection for the number of international visitors and tourism revenue next year due to soaring oil prices, which are discouraging international travel and have led to cuts in inbound flights. phuket.jpgIt targets only a 3.3-per-cent growth in the number of international visitors in 2009, a sharp downward revision from the original projection of 10 per cent. From a projected 17 million, or a 10-per-cent growth, the TAT expects only 16 million travellers to visit the country. About 15 million visitors are expected in 2008.

The TAT also halved it revenue-growth projection for next year to 5 per cent, though spending per head per trip is expected to increase from Bt38,760 this year to Bt39,375. Revenue projection for this year is Bt600 billion The authority is maintaining next year's domestic projection of 87 million trips with revenue of Bt407 billion.

Deputy governor for international marketing Santichai Eua-Chongprasit said the three key negative factors were oil prices, world economic uncertainty and fewer flights into the Kingdom. He said the travel industry, especially long-haul routes, would be affected as the oil price may climb to US$200 (Bt6,800) per barrel.

Source: The Nation

You're right here SBK...however, the TAT itself is dubious as well.

Why don't they post the truth* ?

Let me think loud here...maybe the people at the top are losing face....because their predictions, earlier this year were completely wrong and someone is afraid for his/her job.

Time will tell and that time isn't far away.

* TAT published tourist numbers always with a delay of 2 months; it's now August and they didn't produce the numbers of January yet, or.....let me rephrase, I can't find them.

Anybody can ?

LaoPo

[sriracha john]

Be assured of my gratuity.

But please post the source, as there's nothing available on the usual sites.

News item in todays Pattaya Mail

that settles it then.....

They and their ilk have had credibility problems for a quite some time.... but they are considering a name change...

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Sinking-Lowe...31.html&hl=

Sinking Lower The Lowest, Pattaya City News Breaks Record

Ok, ok... I realize they are an insult to respectable news organizations and journalists the world over.... but then just don't call it Pattaya City News (or Pattaya Mail, for that matter). Keep things honest and call them:

The Pattaya Wimpy Drippy Spineless Tribune

and the

Pattaya On Our Knees And Servicing The Power Brokers Herald

*edit.

I'd also like to express appreciation for mods changing the misleading thread title as it serves as a reminder to new members that if you're going to write an thread OP based upon a news release, from any source, to post that article in the OP. Otherwise, it just screams troll.... to which being evasive, when questioned specifically about his source of information, reinforces. Not overlooking his posting history, which does nothing to dispel that presumption.

Edited August 8, 2008 by sriracha john

[Ulysses G.]

Hotel with all mod cons and swimming pool in Bangkok $30.

Well I don't know bout you......but I probably wouldn't call those under $30 ....a "HOTEL".... esp. in BKK w/ the current exchange rate

A clean, comfortable hotel in a safe, major area with aircon, English TV, and a swimming pool. That is all I would every need.

Sorry that I didn't take the Snootiness Factor into more consideration.

Edited August 9, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[manjara]

Chinese group turns up for a week. Spend every evening in the restaurant (attached to condo). Lots of them, drinking, eating, having fun. Order? 7 boiled rice please Profit? 30 baht. Total.

The Chinese visitors must change their eating habits and diets while they are here.

In more then 3 years of living in China, and eating in restaurants from the most basic noodle joints and dumpling places, up to $500 a head restaurants, I never experienced Chinese eating only boiled rice.

Perhaps it was the food you were putting on.

Or then again, maybe it is just a China bash.

My experience was that in China, the rice was just a filler and they only ate (or ordered it) depending on how full they were after eating the other dishes. If they ordered 7 portions then the Thai main dish portions were small (as usual), or they were hungry.

[redman]

Tourism numbers down?? Lies, lies, lies.

Ask any Pattaya Estate Agent, he will come up with statistics which shows an amazing INCREASE in numbers. He will even provide evidence for you, if pressed. Therefore, the OP is 100% wrong and should be flogged for telling pork pies

[whatsoever]

Well, it does not appear that TAT announced a 30% decline anywhere at all. Topic title amended to show dubious nature of original post.

TAT Lowers Tourism Numbers

Sunday, 20 July 2008

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has lowered their tourism arrivals for this year and next. TAT has sharply cut its projection for the number of international visitors and tourism revenue next year due to soaring oil prices, which are discouraging international travel and have led to cuts in inbound flights. phuket.jpgIt targets only a 3.3-per-cent growth in the number of international visitors in 2009, a sharp downward revision from the original projection of 10 per cent. From a projected 17 million, or a 10-per-cent growth, the TAT expects only 16 million travellers to visit the country. About 15 million visitors are expected in 2008.

The TAT also halved it revenue-growth projection for next year to 5 per cent, though spending per head per trip is expected to increase from Bt38,760 this year to Bt39,375. Revenue projection for this year is Bt600 billion The authority is maintaining next year's domestic projection of 87 million trips with revenue of Bt407 billion.

Deputy governor for international marketing Santichai Eua-Chongprasit said the three key negative factors were oil prices, world economic uncertainty and fewer flights into the Kingdom. He said the travel industry, especially long-haul routes, would be affected as the oil price may climb to US$200 (Bt6,800) per barrel.

Source: The Nation

http://' target="_blank">Consternation as tourism figures plunge 30 percent

awittree Namwiwatsuk

The first three months of this year saw a worrying drop in the number of tourists to Pattaya, the arrivals having fallen by 30 percent, reports the Tourism Authority of Thailand.

TAT Pattaya director, Sub. Lt. Chaiwat Charoensuk

The figures refer collectively to Thai and foreign visitors, and much of the lack of local traffic can be attributed to the rising cost of gasoline and the cost of living in general.

Director of the TAT in Pattaya, Chaiwat Charoensuk, said that the figures for January to March were down by 30 percent, and that this trend was showing no improvement during the overall first six months of the year.

In addition to the decrease in Thai tourists, tourism from the European and Asian markets is also down, he said, including key markets such as Russia, Korea, China, Germany, and the United Kingdom.

[britmaveric]

[PREXPRESSBKK]

I really find in so funny...while there are booming markets like the Middle-East, India and China....many hotels that are owned by Thais such as the Nai Lert Park Hotel(though they claim to be 5star...in actual reality more like a 4star), the owners do not want management to have the hotel flooding with tourist from these markets, rather they only want the "rich and cultured Europeans" and rather have the hotel at a 35% occupancy. This is really an Amaziing Thailand! Most Thais still do not know that Europe is falling apart and they have less purchasing power.