Samak Bows Out

[younghusband]

Actually nick did used to post here, I cannot recall immediately what his login was but I do know he was banned. NN2K or something like that.

To be more correct, i actually have spoken and Nick is not so much staunchly TRT/PPP as super anti PAD. Actually, I suspect in his heart, he might formerly have been a Democrat.

Thanks that's a useful clarification.It's a position that is fact held by many of us.I will be quite frank in stating openly my belief that the PAD leadership is more dangerous and insidious than Thaksin.

[ubonjoe]

Somchai elected new prime minister

Somchai Wongsawat, a deputy leader of the People Power Party, was elected Wednesday as the new prime minister.

A total of 298 MPs voted in support of his nomination while 163 Democrat MPs voted in support of Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva's nomination.

Five MPs abstained.

The Nation

[sriracha john]

a missing misfit to the very end...

Samak misses voting session

Former prime minister Samak Sundaravej did not attend the House meeting held to elect his successor Wednesday.

When Samak's name was called, a People Power Party MP informed House Speaker Chai Chidchob that Samak was on the way to Parliament.

But at the end of the voting, Samak did not show up.

- The Nation

[Plus]

The real question is not about the longevity of this cabinet but it's relevance.

After all the absense of the PM is not Thailand's problem, the problem is his presense. As long as they have these monkeys in charge pretending to be a parlament or the government, it will remain a banana republic.

Maybe banana republic moniker is not suitable, I don't know the correct term for the government that is unable to enforce its own laws and decrees because the police and the army won't listen, the government that doesn't have the office and plans to hold Cabinet meetings at the airport's departure hall, if PAD doesn't take it over first.

Thailand's Flying Circus?

Hun Sen was pretty straightforward - Thailand is not fit to chair Asean, with or without PM. I don't know what these "parlamentarians" are so cheerful about.

[sriracha john]

Actually nick did used to post here, I cannot recall immediately what his login was but I do know he was banned. NN2K or something like that.

To be more correct, i actually have spoken and Nick is not so much staunchly TRT/PPP as super anti PAD.

He must have gotten banned for his views on being anti-PAD.

[sriracha john]

The real question is not about the longevity of this cabinet but it's relevance.

After all the absense of the PM is not Thailand's problem, the problem is his presense. As long as they have these monkeys in charge pretending to be a parlament or the government, it will remain a banana republic.

Maybe banana republic moniker is not suitable, I don't know the correct term for the government that is unable to enforce its own laws and decrees because the police and the army won't listen, the government that doesn't have the office and plans to hold Cabinet meetings at the airport's departure hall, if PAD doesn't take it over first.

Thailand's Flying Circus?

Hun Sen was pretty straightforward - Thailand is not fit to chair Asean, with or without PM. I don't know what these "parlamentarians" are so cheerful about.

It's soon to be payday...

[younghusband]

The real question is not about the longevity of this cabinet but it's relevance.

After all the absense of the PM is not Thailand's problem, the problem is his presense. As long as they have these monkeys in charge pretending to be a parlament or the government, it will remain a banana republic.

Maybe banana republic moniker is not suitable, I don't know the correct term for the government that is unable to enforce its own laws and decrees because the police and the army won't listen, the government that doesn't have the office and plans to hold Cabinet meetings at the airport's departure hall, if PAD doesn't take it over first.

Thailand's Flying Circus?

Hun Sen was pretty straightforward - Thailand is not fit to chair Asean, with or without PM. I don't know what these "parlamentarians" are so cheerful about.

Democracy is a messy business.If Thailand deserves the banana republic label that's due to the almost Latin American divide between the haves and the have nots, and the ruthless determination of the former to retain the status quo.If you wish to take lessons in democratic stability from a former Khmer Rouge thug and corrupt despot, that's your prerogative.

[steveromagnino]

Democracy is a messy business.If Thailand deserves the banana republic label that's due to the almost Latin American divide between the haves and the have nots, and the ruthless determination of the former to retain the status quo.If you wish to take lessons in democratic stability from a former Khmer Rouge thug and corrupt despot, that's your prerogative.

Wealth distribution follows very similar pattern to USA actually, except I would estimate there is more of a social 'net' here than perhaps USA in some respects; essential as despite being the same curve, obviously the absolute weath levels are significantly lower.

GINI coefficient and Lorenz curves are the basis to support my comment slash fact.

Most of the countries backed by USA 30-40 years ago Philipines, Dominican Republic, Philipines etc - all have that similarity as they ran as monopolies with a tiny middle class and a few connected people making the serious cash. Thailand's serious cash possessors changed significantly in 1997 on some levels, and since then has changed again in favour of the politically connected, but the actual haves and have nots issue has never been seriously addressed by politicians for the most part.

(Actually a few plans such as Pramoj's plan in the 70s have had limited impact, but were never in place long term to do much good. TRT's policies had some aspects of social welfare which might or might not have been sustainable (I tend to favour the non sustainable aspect of projects which have 20-40% corruption skims) but being generous to the philosophy of the first 2 years of TRT when it arguably really was kit mai tum mai, believed that they could create entreprenuers from the working class using micro credit. Results remain inconclusive, and most studies worldwide show that it isn't quite as simple as giving people cash; rural Thailand's issue has usually not been only one of cash but also of work skills, location, resource/industry distribution and education/ambition.)

The first politician to seriously unlock the potential upside from rural Thailand will make mega bucks.

Actually banana republic is normally used to refer to economies with a single export, ruled by a self elected clique usually military and politically unstable. The first 2 are for the most part wrong, and during the periods of USA supported dictatorships in the cold war, Thailand was actually fairly politically stable. hard to see Thailand described as such these days, a comedy of tragic proportions I would have thought more appropriate; or perhaps a country run by puppets whose masters shall remain hidden preferably in Hong Kong or UK would be another.

As for Hun Sen, seriously, anyone thinking Thailand has bad leadership, need only look slightly east to see what genuinely f&*ked up democracy looks like. At the rate they are going, the Cambodians will be left with nothing and the entire country's land assets will be foreign owned in a few short years. Ah well, Hun Sen and his mates will be rich enough.

Note the warning shot though; this isn't the first; the previous was the shot at Samart, a well known TRT backer during the TRT years. Even friendships of sorts have their limits; right now this shot about ASEAN is quite squarely aimed at getting the various promises made in haste by some people back on track. Casinos, industry, skim, that sort of thing. If you ever want to have a fun time with PPP/TRT politicians, Cambodia (well Poiphet anyhow) is a nice escape.

[plachon]

Democracy is a messy business.If Thailand deserves the banana republic label that's due to the almost Latin American divide between the haves and the have nots, and the ruthless determination of the former to retain the status quo.If you wish to take lessons in democratic stability from a former Khmer Rouge thug and corrupt despot, that's your prerogative.

Wealth distribution follows very similar pattern to USA actually, except I would estimate there is more of a social 'net' here than perhaps USA in some respects; essential as despite being the same curve, obviously the absolute weath levels are significantly lower.

GINI coefficient and Lorenz curves are the basis to support my comment slash fact.

Most of the countries backed by USA 30-40 years ago Philipines, Dominican Republic, Philipines etc - all have that similarity as they ran as monopolies with a tiny middle class and a few connected people making the serious cash. Thailand's serious cash possessors changed significantly in 1997 on some levels, and since then has changed again in favour of the politically connected, but the actual haves and have nots issue has never been seriously addressed by politicians for the most part.

(Actually a few plans such as Pramoj's plan in the 70s have had limited impact, but were never in place long term to do much good. TRT's policies had some aspects of social welfare which might or might not have been sustainable (I tend to favour the non sustainable aspect of projects which have 20-40% corruption skims) but being generous to the philosophy of the first 2 years of TRT when it arguably really was kit mai tum mai, believed that they could create entreprenuers from the working class using micro credit. Results remain inconclusive, and most studies worldwide show that it isn't quite as simple as giving people cash; rural Thailand's issue has usually not been only one of cash but also of work skills, location, resource/industry distribution and education/ambition.)

The first politician to seriously unlock the potential upside from rural Thailand will make mega bucks.

Actually banana republic is normally used to refer to economies with a single export, ruled by a self elected clique usually military and politically unstable. The first 2 are for the most part wrong, and during the periods of USA supported dictatorships in the cold war, Thailand was actually fairly politically stable. hard to see Thailand described as such these days, a comedy of tragic proportions I would have thought more appropriate; or perhaps a country run by puppets whose masters shall remain hidden preferably in Hong Kong or UK would be another.

As for Hun Sen, seriously, anyone thinking Thailand has bad leadership, need only look slightly east to see what genuinely f&*ked up democracy looks like. At the rate they are going, the Cambodians will be left with nothing and the entire country's land assets will be foreign owned in a few short years. Ah well, Hun Sen and his mates will be rich enough.

Note the warning shot though; this isn't the first; the previous was the shot at Samart, a well known TRT backer during the TRT years. Even friendships of sorts have their limits; right now this shot about ASEAN is quite squarely aimed at getting the various promises made in haste by some people back on track. Casinos, industry, skim, that sort of thing. If you ever want to have a fun time with PPP/TRT politicians, Cambodia (well Poiphet anyhow) is a nice escape.

Exactly Steve.......while Thaksin made some encouraging noises about wealth redistribution and social justice in his first couple of years in office, it was all emtpy rhetoric in the end, as he got down to the traditional business of wealth accumulation for his clan and political backers, and power entrenchment for the TRT in perpetuity. That's why people like Prawet Wasi and Chamlong who had earlier been dazzled by his sweet tongue quoting de Soto et al, very soon saw the mask fall and the forked tongue emerge from underneath. Scales quickly fell from eyes and the dream ticket turned into a Nightmare in Toxinville, as they tried to disengage from the sticky web they'd been caught up in. And that's exactly why PAD was formed to counter the Toxic Network (right down to your buddy in Buriram and his pals), which have led to the mess that has been created now.

So all those bilious PAD-bashers would be far better to look at causes and turn the object of your misdirected poison to the Toxic One. Even YH, once in a fit of pique, admitted that this was all about Thaksin, but can't quite bring himself to admit that by Foucaltian principles, if you want to remove one, you have to remove the other. And putting his Bro-in-law in charge of the playpen, is ony going to make things a whole lot worse. Trouble is, for those stuck in ideological dreams of Thailand being an Open Access Playground of Neoliberal Corporate Globalisation are not going to have their wetdreams fulfilled by either a PPP/TRT or opposition govt, as the ordinary Thai people become a little bit more sophisitcated as to what that implies, thanks in part to PAD's remarkable run.

[hammered]

Democracy is a messy business.If Thailand deserves the banana republic label that's due to the almost Latin American divide between the haves and the have nots, and the ruthless determination of the former to retain the status quo.If you wish to take lessons in democratic stability from a former Khmer Rouge thug and corrupt despot, that's your prerogative.

Wealth distribution follows very similar pattern to USA actually, except I would estimate there is more of a social 'net' here than perhaps USA in some respects; essential as despite being the same curve, obviously the absolute weath levels are significantly lower.

GINI coefficient and Lorenz curves are the basis to support my comment slash fact.

Most of the countries backed by USA 30-40 years ago Philipines, Dominican Republic, Philipines etc - all have that similarity as they ran as monopolies with a tiny middle class and a few connected people making the serious cash. Thailand's serious cash possessors changed significantly in 1997 on some levels, and since then has changed again in favour of the politically connected, but the actual haves and have nots issue has never been seriously addressed by politicians for the most part.

(Actually a few plans such as Pramoj's plan in the 70s have had limited impact, but were never in place long term to do much good. TRT's policies had some aspects of social welfare which might or might not have been sustainable (I tend to favour the non sustainable aspect of projects which have 20-40% corruption skims) but being generous to the philosophy of the first 2 years of TRT when it arguably really was kit mai tum mai, believed that they could create entreprenuers from the working class using micro credit. Results remain inconclusive, and most studies worldwide show that it isn't quite as simple as giving people cash; rural Thailand's issue has usually not been only one of cash but also of work skills, location, resource/industry distribution and education/ambition.)

The first politician to seriously unlock the potential upside from rural Thailand will make mega bucks.

Actually banana republic is normally used to refer to economies with a single export, ruled by a self elected clique usually military and politically unstable. The first 2 are for the most part wrong, and during the periods of USA supported dictatorships in the cold war, Thailand was actually fairly politically stable. hard to see Thailand described as such these days, a comedy of tragic proportions I would have thought more appropriate; or perhaps a country run by puppets whose masters shall remain hidden preferably in Hong Kong or UK would be another.

As for Hun Sen, seriously, anyone thinking Thailand has bad leadership, need only look slightly east to see what genuinely f&*ked up democracy looks like. At the rate they are going, the Cambodians will be left with nothing and the entire country's land assets will be foreign owned in a few short years. Ah well, Hun Sen and his mates will be rich enough.

Note the warning shot though; this isn't the first; the previous was the shot at Samart, a well known TRT backer during the TRT years. Even friendships of sorts have their limits; right now this shot about ASEAN is quite squarely aimed at getting the various promises made in haste by some people back on track. Casinos, industry, skim, that sort of thing. If you ever want to have a fun time with PPP/TRT politicians, Cambodia (well Poiphet anyhow) is a nice escape.

Hun Sen may well end up having to opt for different more reliable partners from elsewhere.

[steveromagnino]

Exactly Steve.......while Thaksin made some encouraging noises about wealth redistribution and social justice in his first couple of years in office, it was all emtpy rhetoric in the end, as he got down to the traditional business of wealth accumulation for his clan and political backers, and power entrenchment for the TRT in perpetuity.

I actually suspect they really did try early on.

Fixing tough stuff is not easy, same as Telco reform etc etc.

Plus the task of keeping factions under control wasn't made easier.

[Plus]

The real question is not about the longevity of this cabinet but it's relevance.

After all the absense of the PM is not Thailand's problem, the problem is his presense. As long as they have these monkeys in charge pretending to be a parlament or the government, it will remain a banana republic.

Maybe banana republic moniker is not suitable, I don't know the correct term for the government that is unable to enforce its own laws and decrees because the police and the army won't listen, the government that doesn't have the office and plans to hold Cabinet meetings at the airport's departure hall, if PAD doesn't take it over first.

Thailand's Flying Circus?

Hun Sen was pretty straightforward - Thailand is not fit to chair Asean, with or without PM. I don't know what these "parlamentarians" are so cheerful about.

Democracy is a messy business.If Thailand deserves the banana republic label that's due to the almost Latin American divide between the haves and the have nots, and the ruthless determination of the former to retain the status quo.If you wish to take lessons in democratic stability from a former Khmer Rouge thug and corrupt despot, that's your prerogative.

The prime reason I called it a banana republic is because of monkeys in charge, .

"ruthless determination of the former to retain the status quo..." - yep, Thaksin boys are not going to give up power easily.

Or do you believe they are all there in parlament "for the people"? You are surely not that naive, are you?

With TRT they at least had some policies to give local leftists a hard on, these guys are absolutely clueless and they don't even pretend they care.

Hun Sen might be a bastard, but he is spot on. Tej resigned 'cos he couldn't stand this scum of a government. They shouldn't embarass Thailand any further and pass the chair to someone else for this year, and generally postpone all their foreing policy initiatives until the sort out the domestic situation.

[Pierrot]

I actually suspect they really did try early on.

Fixing tough stuff is not easy, same as Telco reform etc etc.

Plus the task of keeping factions under control wasn't made easier.

At least you acknowledge they try. And most probably that's why such a large part of the population is thankful to Thaksin, because, at least, he tried to do something for them.

Regarding Hun Sen, I'm not so sure you're familiar with Cambodia recent history but it's an other subject.

Edited September 17, 2008 by Pierrot

[younghusband]

Democracy is a messy business.If Thailand deserves the banana republic label that's due to the almost Latin American divide between the haves and the have nots, and the ruthless determination of the former to retain the status quo.If you wish to take lessons in democratic stability from a former Khmer Rouge thug and corrupt despot, that's your prerogative.

Wealth distribution follows very similar pattern to USA actually, except I would estimate there is more of a social 'net' here than perhaps USA in some respects; essential as despite being the same curve, obviously the absolute weath levels are significantly lower.

GINI coefficient and Lorenz curves are the basis to support my comment slash fact.

Excellent and thoughtful post and thanks for putting me right on the inequality statistics.I had a look at the UNDP 2007/2008 Human Development Report which confirms what you have said.Mind you the US with a Gini Index of 40.8 doesn't compare very well with places like Sweden,Japan or Germany.but overall the Thailand figures stack up quite well and don't seem to be akin to the very unequal societies in Latin America.Interestingly the inequality measures in Thailand represent a significantly higher level than Western developed countries and Japan, but are not out of line with other Asian countries.So my banana republic analogy doesn't look that appropriate, at least on the inequality measure

Interesting you referred to Kukrit's tamboon programme of the 1970's.As you say it never got very far (dangerously leftist by the standards of the day) but my understanding it had a positive impact.Agreed doling out cash is not the right way forward in these times, but in the conditions of the 1970's it made much more sense.Many here might not fully realise how grinding and desparate was much of rural life at that time.I sometimes wonder incidentally whether the Thammasat element in the TRT saw the tambon policy as the inspiration for their own populist measures under Thaksin.How tragic that the TRT programme for rural Thais veered off course, and that Thaksin squandered his opportunities.As you pointed out correctly in response Plachon's absurd rejoinder ("bilious PAD bashers" and "misdirected poison" etc) there were some genuine good intentions and I would say some promising initial results.

[Flatouthruthefog]

The real question is not about the longevity of this cabinet but it's relevance.

After all the absense of the PM is not Thailand's problem, the problem is his presense. As long as they have these monkeys in charge pretending to be a parlament or the government, it will remain a banana republic.

Maybe banana republic moniker is not suitable, I don't know the correct term for the government that is unable to enforce its own laws and decrees because the police and the army won't listen, the government that doesn't have the office and plans to hold Cabinet meetings at the airport's departure hall, if PAD doesn't take it over first.

Thailand's Flying Circus?

Hun Sen was pretty straightforward - Thailand is not fit to chair Asean, with or without PM. I don't know what these "parlamentarians" are so cheerful about.

Democracy is a messy business.If Thailand deserves the banana republic label that's due to the almost Latin American divide between the haves and the have nots, and the ruthless determination of the former to retain the status quo.If you wish to take lessons in democratic stability from a former Khmer Rouge thug and corrupt despot, that's your prerogative.

The prime reason I called it a banana republic is because of monkeys in charge, .

"ruthless determination of the former to retain the status quo..." - yep, Thaksin boys are not going to give up power easily.

Or do you believe they are all there in parlament "for the people"? You are surely not that naive, are you?

With TRT they at least had some policies to give local leftists a hard on, these guys are absolutely clueless and they don't even pretend they care.

Hun Sen might be a bastard, but he is spot on. Tej resigned 'cos he couldn't stand this scum of a government. They shouldn't embarass Thailand any further and pass the chair to someone else for this year, and generally postpone all their foreing policy initiatives until the sort out the domestic situation.

"Scum of a government"?

Hey, relax. Don't take it so seriously. Because they are all.....................

TOO DAFT TO LAUGH AT!

[sriracha john]

PM-elect sees few changes ahead

After being voted in as the new PM yesterday, Somchai Wongsawat said he expected his government to stay the entire term.

"According to law, the term of the House is four years. Eight months have passed so far, and we will have to deduce from that," Somchai said when asked if his government would be temporary, as predicted by some observers.

In reference to the ongoing political conflict, the PM-elect said his greatest wish was to restore peace and unity. "It's time for reconciliation. We will have to make Thailand peaceful and good for living," he said.

Though he declined to talk about his Cabinet line-up, citing the fact that his nomination is subject to royal endorsement, he said he would attend to immediate problems like flooding and the distress triggered by bankruptcies in the United States.

Somchai also said he would seek advice from his predecessor, Samak Sundaravej, and would work closely with opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva. He also welcomed recommendations from people outside the Parliament.

With regards to his brother-in-law Thaksin Shinawatra, he would not say if he had been given any advice for *perhaps they meant to use "or" * even congratulations for being given the top post.

At the House of Representatives meeting yesterday, Somchai obtained 298 votes compared to 163 for Abhisit. Somchai, Abhisit, House Speaker Chai Chidchob, and his two Deputies Samart Kaewmeechai and Apiwan Wiriyachai abstained.

After the voting result was announced by the House Speaker, Somchai thanked everyone for their support and even walked up to Chart Thai Leader Banharn Silpa-archa to show his gratitude face to face.

While waiting for the results, MPs from factions that supported Somchai from the beginning started congratulating him. However, MPs close to banned influential politician Newin Chibchob, who previously backed Samak's re-nomination, chose to talk to one another even though they were few rows away from the new PM.

Somchai only just managed to secure support from MPs in the "Friends of Newin" faction on the eve of the voting, reportedly after hours of lobbying, bargaining, and delivering some warnings.

Samak did not join yesterday's session, because, according to Somchai, he was caught in rush-hour traffic. The PM-elect was quick to add that he did not feel slighted and would call on Samak for advice later.

- The Nation / 2008-09-18

Edited September 18, 2008 by sriracha john

[brahmburgers]

....just caught a glance at a photo in the Nation - showing newly appointed PM Somchai being given a big bouquet of flowers by a smiling guy in a business suit. Assume there are a lot more suits in the queue (and in the wings), just waiting to gush forth with flattery and praise. If Somchai is gone tomorrow, and his valet took the reins, the same long queue of VIP's would be singing praises for the newly anointed (yet still not popularly elected) top tamale - while waiting to get their bread favorably buttered.

Edited September 18, 2008 by brahmburgers

[sriracha john]

Foreign Minister could not be a wrong choice

Newly elected Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat badly needs to pick the right person as foreign minister as Thailand faces many major challenges. The wrong selection would be a big blow to the country's international credibility.

People in Bangkok might dislike or disagree with Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen for raising the question of Thailand's ability to chair the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) amid the current political turmoil.

Hun Sen is not alone in expressing concerns over the repercussion of Thai domestic problems on Asean, which is at the crossroads of transforming itself from an ad-hoc grouping into a rules-based organisation.

When Thailand took the chairmanship from Singapore after the annual ministerial meeting in July, the international community and media raised a sharp question about whether the Kingdom could steer the group during its 18-month term while facing political instability.

Singapore's Foreign Minister George Yeo, who then chaired the group, kindly and optimistically replied that Thailand had a lot of professional and capable civil servants in the foreign service so that members could be assured that Asean was in the right hands.

It's true that officials at the Foreign Ministry have the ability to handle Asean and have prepared well for the Asean Summit in mid-December. The first meetings of Asean's standing committee and senior officials under Thailand's chairmanship have already been held. The standing committee was briefed on the progress of preparation for the coming summit, with member countries expressing satisfaction with the steps taken.

Career diplomats alone might be able to host an Asean summit, but Thailand's foreign affairs extend beyond organising a meeting of 10 heads of government. There are many other issues requiring political policies and decisions.

Asean itself must have good leadership and the right decisions to handle many issues including human rights and Burma's political stalemate. Political will is a necessity.

Moreover, Thailand also has border trouble with neighbour Cambodia relating to areas where Khmer and Hindu temples are located. The conflicts over Preah Vihear and Ta Muen Thom temples have not been resolved yet. Phnom Penh raised the third dispute over Ta Kwai.

Former foreign minister Tej Bunnag did a good job when he negotiated to have border disputes handled by the normal mechanism of the Thai-Cambodian Joint Commission on Demarcation for Land Boundary (JBC), but the job has not finished yet. His meeting with Cambodia counterpart Hor Namhong in Cha-am last month required many follow-up meetings to resolve the problems step by step. The JBC itself is a ministerial mechanism. Border demarcation is a technical issue that requires policy guidelines and political decisions.

Cambodia might raise the issue again when its foreign minister is in New York late this month for the United Nations General Assembly and the sideline meeting of Asean foreign ministers. Thailand really needs a keen foreign minister to deal with the situation in New York. Former deputy prime minister Sahas Bunditkul, who represented Thailand at an Asean meeting in Singapore in July, used his experience in dealing with the Cambodian diplomatic bombshell.

The experience of the past seven months under Samak Sundaravej's administration has taught a lesson that the selection of the foreign minister really matters. The different backgrounds of two former ministers, Noppadon Pattama and Tej Bunnag, made a big difference to the ministry's work. New PM Somchai, who was also in Samak's Cabinet, has already learned the lesson and political consequences of a wrong selection.

- The Nation / 2008-09-18

=========================================

Perhaps his MP daughter will be selected for Foreign Minister?

Edited September 18, 2008 by sriracha john

[Plus]

They distracted the public and bought themselves some time, the little no PM hiccup was resolved in a week.

Now how about dealing with PAD? Any ideas from Somchai?

Like that guy in the Nation wrote yesterday: "Hello, square one".

[AlKing]

Foreign Minister could not be a wrong choice

But PM can

[sriracha john]

DAAD is back tomorrow...

New Thai Premier Awaits Endorsement as Coup Anniversary Nears

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- New Thai Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat will probably be officially endorsed by the king today as government supporters prepare for a rally to mark the second anniversary of a coup that ousted Thaksin Shinawatra.

Somchai, a brother-in-law of Thaksin, is waiting for an endorsement from head of state King Bhumibol Adulyadej after lawmakers chose him as prime minister yesterday. Somchai lifted a state of emergency earlier this week that was called by his predecessor after street clashes on Sept. 2 left one man dead.

The same group of government supporters that confronted the more than 10,000 protesters who have occupied the prime minister's office compound for three weeks plans to rally again tomorrow. They want the mainly middle-class members of the People's Alliance for Democracy to vacate Government House, leading to fears of more street violence.

"We are confused about why the army didn't disperse the People's Alliance and we hope the new prime minister would do something," said Jaran Ditapichai. "Our slogan on Sept. 19 is 'Eliminate PAD.'"

Jaran said the government supporters, who were "angry" at being fired upon two weeks ago, wouldn't confront the anti- government group tomorrow. Leaders of the People's Alliance, which has vowed to remain put until the government falls, face arrest for treason.

"We'll probably see some quite considerable protests" on Sept. 19, Stephen Vickers, CEO of International Risk Ltd., told Bloomberg Television yesterday. "Stay away from major demonstrations. Foreign firms should have contingency plans in place if things do turn nasty."

The protesters claim the People Power Party, which won December elections on support from the rural poor, has no legitimacy to govern the country because one of its executive members was convicted of buying votes. It faces dissolution for the offense in a case before the Constitutional Court, the same court that forced Samak Sundaravej to step down as premier last week for violating the constitution by hosting a cooking show.

"We have been very careful about any violence," Pipob Thongchai, one of nine People's Alliance leaders facing arrest, said by phone. "We won't be the one to provoke it and will rely on the police and the military to prevent any clash."

Thailand's benchmark SET Index has dropped nearly 10 percent since the People's Alliance seized Government House on Aug. 26. The political tension escalated before the global financial markets were roiled by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., prompting Somchai to make the economy a key priority in his administration, which many analysts expect will last only a few months.

"The global situation right now doesn't look good for our country," he told reporters yesterday.

Somchai called for reconciliation after he was voted in as premier. His calm demeanor stands in sharp contrast to Samak, who once hosted a cooking show called "Tasting, Complaining."

"I don't hate anyone and I'm not angry at anybody," Somchai said. "I want Thailand to be peaceful."

[sriracha john]

Low expectation premier for Thailand

BANGKOK - In early August, former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra held a private meeting in Bangkok among his most trusted confidantes to discuss his next political moves, including his planned flight from justice into exile in Britain.

Provincial power-broker and political insider Newin Chidchob showed up for the meeting, but was told by Thaksin to wait outside while the closed-door discussions were held.

When the meeting was adjourned, Thaksin told the still lingering Newin that he was "moving too fast" to consolidate his own power inside the ruling People's Power Party (PPP), according to a source with knowledge of the exchange. Against that background, Newin made Wednesday's appointment of new Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat a highly fractious exercise, revealing intra-party splits that could impact decisively on general elections expected to be held in the coming months.

The elevation of Somchai, Thaksin's brother-in-law and career judge from the southern region, points to growing weakness and division inside the ruling PPP.

Newin's camp of 70 parliamentarians favored the reappointment of PPP party leader Samak Sundaravej, who was disqualified from the premiership last week on a conflict of interest conviction related to his hosting and receiving payment for a television cooking program.

The camp opposed to Samak - led by a faction of northeastern region politicians known for its die-hard loyalty to Thaksin - expressed concerns that his reappointment would agitate the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protest group, which since August 26 has laid siege to Government House and paralyzed the workings of government. Thaksin called in the deciding vote on Somchai's appointment, which after an aborted parliamentary session to pick a new premier last week, won 298 of parliament's possible 480 votes on Wednesday.

One government insider refers to Somchai as a "low expectation candidate", but one with "no history of corruption or misdeeds". He notes that the opposition Democrat Party appointed him to his post as Justice Ministry secretary general in the 1990s before Thaksin had even entered politics.

Despite the PAD's spirited accusations, Samak was not the pliant proxy they often portrayed and after Thaksin's mid-August flight from justice the veteran politician had made moves to further consolidate his own power inside the PPP, including through an alliance with Newin. Samak is still nominally the PPP's party leader, though he has said after his conviction that he plans to retire from politics.

However, few believe he will completely fade from the scene and he is expected to remain a residual, if not divisive, force from behind the scenes. Samak had indicated his willingness to resume the premiership after his court-ordered removal and failed to show up for Wednesday's parliamentary vote.

The intra-party tensions signal Somchai's tenure will be weak and short-lived and raise new questions about how the electoral chips may fall at the next elections, expected to be held in the coming months after the passage of the 2009 budget or after the PPP is dissolved on electoral fraud charges, as an Election Commission ruling recently recommended.

Around one-third of the sitting PPP parliamentarians could opt against regrouping under the Thaksin-aligned Peua Thai party and could aim to form a new northeastern region-oriented party under Newin's patronage.

Despite Somchai's conciliatory removal over the weekend of Samak's emergency decree, which had taken a heavy toll on business and investor confidence, the PAD has already stated its strong opposition to his appointment and promised to maintain its encampment around Government House.

One government insider expressed hope Somchai's background as a southerner, from where most of the provincial protesters hail, might generate some sympathy among the PAD.

However, the protest group has already labeled Somchai another Thaksin proxy and its attention will be focused on whether he attempts to use his position of power or connections in the Thai judiciary to subvert the various corruption cases now pending against his exiled brother-in-law. Thaksin's wife Pojaman was recently convicted on tax evasion charges and they both stand accused of foul play in a dodgy Bangkok land deal she conducted with his government now being heard by the Supreme Court.

Samak allowed those cases to proceed and Somchai's appointment will inevitably lead to PAD criticism that Thaksin has resorted to nepotism to shore up his declining political capital and personal financial position. Thai courts have frozen 76 billion (US$2.3 billion) of his assets and many analysts viewed his recent sale of the English-based Manchester City Football Club as indication of his dried up liquidity.

The recent attempt to have a 16 billion baht chunk of his frozen assets moved from the Siam Commercial Bank to the PPP-controlled Finance Ministry's Revenue Department, purportedly for tax payment purposes, has been viewed similarly by analysts as a sign of Thaksin's mounting financial woes.

As Thaksin's weakened financial state becomes more readily apparent to the PPP's patronage politicians, particularly with the prospect of expensive new elections around the corner, the perceived to be cash-rich Newin, whose family business benefited recently from big-ticket construction contracts, including roadways in Chiang Mai province, will likely grow in political importance and could decide whether the PPP or opposition Democrats form the next coalition government.

While in office, Thaksin famously elevated his family members into positions of power. Most controversially, he promoted his cousin, Chaisit Shinawatra, to the coveted position of Army Commander in 2003, leap-frogging him above several officers who outranked him in prestige and seniority. That particular move wove dissent among the rank and file and contributed to the top brass resentment that factored into the 2006 military coup.

He also elevated his own sister and self-admitted political novice, Yaowapha Wongsawat, Somchai's wife, to head a faction inside his former Thai Rak Thai Party to counterbalance the influence of then power-broker Sanoh Thienthong, who now heads a small party of a mere five MPs in the ruling coalition. He arguably used Somchai, then a Justice Ministry permanent secretary, to similar divide-and-rule effect.

He locked horns over a ministry budget in 2003 with rising Thai Rak Thai party star and Justice Minister Purachai Piumsomboon, who as interior minister two years before launched a highly popular and moralistic "new social order" campaign aimed at taming Bangkok's wild side and while Thaksin was mired in legal troubles. Thaksin sided with Somchai on the budget issue and the straight-laced Purachai was later removed from the Justice Ministry, and after a short stint as deputy prime minister, left politics altogether.

Somchai's government is expected to stay in place at least long enough to pass a new fiscal budget, which critics already allege will be designed in part to build financial war chests for coalition parties and boost the PPP's populist credentials for the next general elections. With Thaksin's uncertain financial situation, the budget has become a key bargaining point for the PPP with its five coalition partners, one political insider says.

The political opposition is already viewing suspiciously a large-scale irrigation project in the country's northeastern region and alleged recent mismanagement at the Stock Exchange of Thailand, where Thaksin allies are in top leadership positions. Those suspicions could soon come to fiery light on the PAD's nationally televised protest stage. Many analysts express concerns Somchai's appointment will re-energize and perhaps escalate the PAD's protest activities.

More fundamentally, Somchai's appointment demonstrates a lack of faith in the governing abilities of the rural northeastern constituency Thaksin and the PPP allege to represent through their pro-poor platform. All three top candidates considered for the post, including Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee and Justice Minister Sompong Amornwiwat, hailed from the Bangkok establishment and not the poor provincial hinterland the populist former premier purports to champion.

A similar cynicism was seen in Thaksin's tapping Samak, a former Bangkok governor with no provincial support base, to lead the newly formed PPP. That move backfired when Samak disenfranchised the party's northeastern bloc by excluding them from key decision-making processes and it's altogether unclear if the reticent and political novice Somchai will be able to hold the now highly factionalized party's center.

Nor is he expected to hold much sway inside the military, including with army commander General Anupong Paochinda, who was among the officers which ousted Thaksin in a 2006 military coup and is known for his unswerving loyalty to the palace.

In the run-up to Somchai's appointment, Anupong suggested the formation of a national unity government, presumably including the opposition Democrat party, as a conciliatory way out of the political morass. The PPP instead stood by its democratic mandate to rule and as such the end to Thailand's political troubles are nowhere in sight.

- Shawn Crispin / Asia Times / 2008-09-18

[sriracha john]

Bargaining time

Behind-the-scenes lobbying for lucrative ministerial posts has begun in earnest as Somchai Wongsawat awaits royal endorsement as the country's leader. But Surapong Suebwonglee has bowed out as Finance Minister. The faction-riddled PPP and its tenuous coalition partners are seeking to gain the best advantage in the post-Samak-era administration. At the top of the PM-elect's list is a new Finance Minister after Surapong said on Wednesday he would not join the new Cabinet. Surapong said he decided not to take a ministerial job in the new administration because of the digit lottery lawsuit. *but it was ok to "do his job" for the past 53 days since the Supreme Court accepted the case against him???* He would wait for a court verdict before deciding on his political career. A PPP source said the Party had approached Thanong Bidaya, a former Finance Minister, to take the job. Four seats in the PPP's quota also will be freed up for the factions to fight for: two posts as Deputy PM, the Defence Minister post, and the Education portfolio. Chuwit Pitakpornpallop, an MP for Ubon Ratchathani loyal to Newin Chidchob, said the Friends of Newin faction hopes to get five deputy jobs and one ministerial post. Expected to go is Transport Minister Santi Promphat, who is reportedly at odds with former TRT executive Pongsak Raktapongpaisal who supervises the transport portfolio. Mingkwan Sangsuwan is likely to be made Deputy PM and to vacate the post of Industry Minister, which will be returned to the Puea Pandin Party, the source added.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.net/topstories/tops...s.php?id=130749

Edited September 18, 2008 by sriracha john

[sriracha john]

Can he last?

A former judge and a former permanent secretary, new PM Somchai Wongsawat is a first-time MP with only seven months under his belt. He may run into a fog in terms of priorities and how to deal with the slew of problems for the ruling party. The days of uncertainty are finally over, with Somchai emerging from political obscurity to succeed Samak, who exited the premiership in disgrace. But the ship of state with Somchai at the helm could be headed for a violent vortex, whipped up by growing sentiment against another "nominee" PM. It's no secret that one reason why Samak did not last very long in the PM's seat was in part due to his openness about his alignment with the coup-ousted PM, Thaksin. Samak went on record as Thaksin's proxy and with such a label his opponents kept hounding him with criticism, which chiseled away at his credibility. The force of the "proxy" criticism will hit Somchai a lot harder, as he is Thaksin's brother-in-law. The husband of Thaksin's younger sister, Yaowapa, has put himself on a collision course with the PAD, which has staged a marathon protest against what it calls a puppet government controlled by remote from London, where Thaksin is now in exile after jumping bail in a corruption trial. The PAD will be on Somchai's back and will have a field day digging into his past, his every track record, and exposing any and every piece of dirty linen there might be. Somchai has been on the receiving end from party factions since Samak's departure. He has reportedly been forced to bow to conditions from the camp in the PPP controlled by the influential former TRT party executive, Newin Chidchob, in return for the faction's support for him to secure the premiership. 73 MPs answer to the Newin-linked faction, which explains why Somchai could not afford to let the group switch its backing to another candidate when it came to voting for PM in parliament. By comparison, Samak possessed far more political clout than Somchai does, and many have begun to wonder whether the latter will even survive the next few months as PM.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/tops...s.php?id=130753

Edited September 18, 2008 by sriracha john

[sriracha john]

PM-elect insists he has never talked over the phone with Thaksin

Somchai Wongsawat, Prime Minister-elect, insisted that he has not talked over the phone with Thaksin Shinawatra.

Somchai said that Thaksin has not called him to express congratulations. Normally, he said that he has never talked over the phone with the former premier.

Meanwhile, a party celebrating Somchai as the new premier was held last night at the new Thai leader’s Beverly Hill residence on Chang Watthana road.

The joyous party was well attended by government officials who have had a close relationship with Somchai from the Ministry of Education, as well as private executives.

The beamed Mr. Somchai’s members of the family, including his wife Mrs. Yaowapa, their children-Mr. Yoschanan, Miss Chinnicha, and Miss Chonnicha, also were present at the party.

His two daughters disclosed that they lent a present to their father with love.

- ThaiNews / 2008-09-18

Edited September 18, 2008 by sriracha john

[steveromagnino]

- Shawn Crispin / Asia Times / 2008-09-18

Not a bad summary of some of the events to date; one key point being that Shawn clearly points out the disconnect between PPP as a representative of the rural poor, and the democratic process. Clearly, the factions are the king maker, and the ability of the power blocks to simply cross the floor and change parties knowing full well that they will get elected yet again shows the true state of democracy here in Thailand as it has been since 1992.

And no, I don't think we should take away that right from the rural poor to keep voting in fine upstanding people in like Sanoh; however it shows the importance of policing vote buying and electoral fraud.

Seems ideal to have a person with no political experience as PM and no finance minister, how could I have ever doubted the skills of PPP LOL. In this reshuffle not one of that group are people you would trust with bus money, small animals or anything else of the slightest value, just as well that we can now rely on them to run a country during a global recession.

As I said 9 months ago, let these guys totally f&*k up the economy for a year or so, so people see how Thaksinomics really works, and then finally we may see a genuine leader rise and lead the country forward. But with the brinksmanship underway, I cannot really see this twit lasting to Xmas.

[younghusband]

And no, I don't think we should take away that right from the rural poor to keep voting in fine upstanding people in like Sanoh; however it shows the importance of policing vote buying and electoral fraud.

But there is a strong view in some quarters that the rural voters representation should be reduced, nominally because of a horror of vote buying but actually for very different reasons.Chang Noi summed up the position well:

"So why the current panic about vote-buying? The upcountry electorate is richer, better educated, and more experienced at elections than ever before. In truth, the problem is not that upcountry voters don’t know how to use their vote, and that the result is distorted by patronage and vote-buying. The problem is that they have learnt to use the vote only too well. Over four national polls, they have chosen very consistently and very rationally.

And, of course, that may be the real problem. Back when many upcountry electors sold their votes, and as a result their weight in national politics was zero, nobody cared so much about vote-buying. But now the electors have got smart, they have to be stopped. The bleating about vote-buying and patronage politics is simply an attempt to undermine electoral democracy because it seems to be working."

[steveromagnino]

Changnoi said:

"So why the current panic about vote-buying? The upcountry electorate is richer, better educated, and more experienced at elections than ever before. In truth, the problem is not that upcountry voters don’t know how to use their vote, and that the result is distorted by patronage and vote-buying. The problem is that they have learnt to use the vote only too well. Over four national polls, they have chosen very consistently and very rationally.

And, of course, that may be the real problem. Back when many upcountry electors sold their votes, and as a result their weight in national politics was zero, nobody cared so much about vote-buying. But now the electors have got smart, they have to be stopped. The bleating about vote-buying and patronage politics is simply an attempt to undermine electoral democracy because it seems to be working."

Except the article is nonsensical; given that the same person for the last few elections in many of the same provinces has consistently been voted in; e.g. the Chidchob family in Buriram; no matter what their political affiliation or policy.

You would think we would see some sort of change in who they voted for pre and post TRT....except this is mostly not the case in rural Thailand.

When the vote buying was rife, much the same back then as well. Democrat, PPP, New Aspiration, TRT, etc etc - whatever the shirt, whatever the policies - the Who song kicks in, here's the new boss same as the old boss.

The buying used to be giving cash to the voters. Now with popularist policies, the ruling faction now skips that step and pays directly to the candidates. The only thing smart has been the decision to use the government coffers to buy the votes with policy rather than party financing; then the party financing can be used to buy the factions or at least encourage them to stay at the table and share in the skim. The only problem is of course, that policies used for reelection (and the free buses with Pua Prachachon written in the exact same font as the party are a current example of this) tend to be completely idiotic economically doing a HUGE amount of damage simply to support a few people to get their fingers at the government budget.

As for richer and better educated, 555555555555555555555 on the basis of what grounds could someone say that without evidence?

For someone wanting to present the case for democracy, this is how it plays out; 'well it seems to be working, they keep choosing these think new work new type politicians, not like the old dross we used to have. It's just the old guard that are getting annoyed because they don't get voted in anymore' Except it is the same faces, and democracy is working exactly as badly as it did 15 years ago with no real change in the politician families, just changes in the faces and which party they belong to. Which kind of completely undoes the entire thrust of the argument.

The few genuinely new politicians like Purachai, anyone remember him and how long he lasted for? let's remember who kicked him out.

The one positive is this last election they started to clamp down on the fraud aspect; funny how Chang Noi doesn't want to mention how some parties refused to play by the rules and so decide instead to fiddle the rules. Or to say that is all a bit Yongyuth I guess.

I never mentioned reducing their power, although certainly others have. Everyone, no matter what level of society, other than a few crims/clinically insane/etc deserves their chance to select who will run their lives for them. It may take some hardship before rural Thailand learns that perhaps guys like Sanoh and Newin are possibly, just maybe, not the best people to run things. However, without a better option, we might as will put up with another few years of s&*t government, we've had it since 2001 and are building some sort of immunity to it.

Edited September 18, 2008 by steveromagnino

[Plus]

But there is a strong view in some quarters that the rural voters representation should be reduced, nominally because of a horror of vote buying but actually for very different reasons.

If you refer to "new politics", than rural voters would certainly be better represented than now, unless you think that the current MPs reresent the poor and not themselves and their financial backers from Thaksin down to local businessmen.

Chang Noi summed up the position well:

"So why the current panic about vote-buying? The upcountry electorate is richer, better educated, and more experienced at elections than ever before. In truth, the problem is not that upcountry voters don’t know how to use their vote, and that the result is distorted by patronage and vote-buying. The problem is that they have learnt to use the vote only too well. Over four national polls, they have chosen very consistently and very rationally.

Consistently - yes, the poor in the South vote for Dems, in Central Thailand for Chart Thai, and in Isan for various incarnations of TRT.

What changes Chang Noi is talking about? What has changed in their voting patterns in the past fifteen years?

What has changed is the ways their masters keep them on the leash. Apart from vote farming methods discussed earlier, there's now ideological angle to it all, too - Dems rally against TRT and TRT rally around Thaksin against Dems.

Then there's a curious fact that in last elections millions of people voted for one party on local MP list and completely opposite party on national party list. Doesn't sound too rational or too ideological to me.

[Samuian]

Don't worry - mai mee pen ha!

I think that there is every reason, if not clear evidence to be afraid this will never change and the PAD might well be another 1000 years occupying government house - for this nepotism, cronyism combined with highly corrupt practices is so much entrenched in society and generally welcomed, even considered to be 'smart & clever' business tactics.

Who the heck is going to change that frame of mind?

People, mostly the rural voters, will have to become aware that it hurts themselves, go and tell someone, they will not believe, they may take off in disbelieve and complain that there is someone telling 'lies' and are badmouthing their celebrated patrons!

I have the disturbing feeling that I didn't just have a night mare but that this is the highly disturbing reality of things an how they are in this realm!