Think Tank Says Thailand May Be Heading For Coup

[thaigene2]

Here's another news report in the Post - I guess the Thai Visa News Editors have been missing some of these, so I'll keep posting the ones they've 'missed' - by the way, this group ICG is one of the biggest in its field..contracted by big players to assess risks for teir companies and oragnizations

TG2

ICG: Instability may bring coup

Protests, instability could bring new Thai coup: think tank

Ongoing anti-government protests and political instability threaten peace and democracy in Thailand and could usher in another military coup, according to a leading European think-tank.

''The replacement of Samak Sundaravej with Somchai Wongsawat as prime minister is unlikely to defuse tensions,'' the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) said in its latest assessment.

''Every day the [political] standoff continues, political divisions become more intractable _ and another coup becomes more likely,'' the statement said. ''Overthrowing the elected government _ either by a coup or by street demonstrations _ would be a severe blow to Thailand's democracy'', Rungrawee Chalermsripinyorat, ICG's Thailand analyst, said. ''It will do nothing to resolve the deep political polarisation that is tearing Thailand apart.''

More from the Bangkok Post here.

Edited September 26, 2008 by sabaijai
Full article abbreviated to comply with copyright

[Jai Dee]

Unfortunately copyright infringement is the reason why Bangkok Post articles cannot be posted in their entirety on ThaiVisa.

It is an interesting read... and I urge all interested members to view the article online before the inevitable link rot occurs in a few days time and the article can no longer be read.

[Samuian]

'Senior figures should stop sending mixed messages and make clear their backing for the government and the rule of law.

Isn't it the duty of Politicians (Senior Figures) anyway, do they really need to be reminded to hold up the law and do things by the book?

It's so paradoxical (Thai) what this guy states!

This is mainly why the PAD is out there - to ensure the above!

And the "unrest in the south" has NOTHING, absolutely NOTHING to do with the PAD or street protests, or the economy!

The last coups couldn't do anything much about the "unrest" and the "hard hand" of the former government hasn't done much good either, the (miraculous) deaths on army trucks of some 87 demonstrates neither

The SoE imposed by the ex-premier, seeking political advantage over the PAD, has probably done more damage in the short run, then the PAD Protests in the long run!

Besides the PAD is still occupying Government House - why?

Because Police AND the Army don't feel to move in or dispserse them... so they might not think that everything with PAD is wrong?!

imho i find this article a slight bit 'dodgy' and not necessarily 'a must read', because it leads in a certain direction.

as of the "elite 30%" story, the PAD is NOT fixed on this idea, they invite people to help to "draw up a chart" to get Thai=Politics out of the gridlock of the corrupt nepotism it slowly but surely buries itself in!

Edited September 24, 2008 by Samuian

[wayfarer108]

More opinion than news, and a rather out-of-date and out-of-touch opinion at that.

If the military do intervene, it won't be to stop the PAD-led protests or to 'restore the rule of law' (although they might well claim that's what they're doing). It has become increasingly obvious that the PAD have the military's tacit support. If the military intervene it will be because they think the courts and the anti-PPP protests can't do the job.

And the PAD have explicitly abandoned the 30-70 proposal, which was intended as a transitional phase anyway.

So they conclude that police action is the way to send the crisis. This particular 'think tank' needs to do a little more thinking and try to understand the causes behind the current situation. It's part of a cycle that repearts every seven years on average.

Edited September 24, 2008 by wayfarer108

[citizen33]

More opinion than news, and a rather out-of-date and out-of-touch opinion at that.

Though it may be unpalatable to a certain segment of the expat group, I think you will find that this article is representative of mainstream, informed opinion in the West. The author is absolutely right to say that the overthrow of another elected government (whether by coup or judicial intervention) will led to a very negative international reaction.

[OxfordWill]

Yea right.. the leading euro think tank got it wrong, and YOU'RE right. Absolutely. Have another beer.

[GuestHouse]

They are not bad odds are they?

Simply make the bet that there will be a military coup in Thailand within the coming year and based on Thailand's past record you've got better odds than betting on the 3:30 at Aintree.

Unpalatable for some, but it's not an unjust view of Thailand that it is Coup Central - It is a historical fact that Thailand plunges into Coups at a depressingly regular interval.

[Samuian]

....edit.... This particular 'think tank' needs to do a little more thinking....edit...

I sign that!

[h90]

Unfortunately copyright infringement is the reason why Bangkok Post articles cannot be posted in their entirety on ThaiVisa.

It is an interesting read... and I urge all interested members to view the article online before the inevitable link rot occurs in a few days time and the article can no longer be read.

Did Bangkok post complain? If yes than I think you should also put a posting "Bangkok Post want to sue us if their articles are used" or something similar, so we know which newspaper we shall not buy.

[thaihome]

More opinion than news, and a rather out-of-date and out-of-touch opinion at that.

If they had stuck to headline, which is indeed true that another coup would be subject to international condemnation that would be ok. But to say "The crisis in Bangkok was crippling the economy" is ludicrous and based on no facts at all. Anyone sen a crippled economy laying around? We just got handed a 350USD million project last week by a major MNC, doesn't sound crippled to me

Just another westerner too lazy to do the on the ground research needed to really understand what is happening.

TH

[jumnien]

More opinion than news, and a rather out-of-date and out-of-touch opinion at that.

If they had stuck to headline, which is indeed true that another coup would be subject to international condemnation that would be ok. But to say "The crisis in Bangkok was crippling the economy" is ludicrous and based on no facts at all. Anyone sen a crippled economy laying around? We just got handed a 350USD million project last week by a major MNC, doesn't sound crippled to me

Just another westerner too lazy to do the on the ground research needed to really understand what is happening.

TH

Are you related to John "the US economy shows strong fundamentals" McCain by any chance?

[bravingbangkok]

More opinion than news, and a rather out-of-date and out-of-touch opinion at that.

If they had stuck to headline, which is indeed true that another coup would be subject to international condemnation that would be ok. But to say "The crisis in Bangkok was crippling the economy" is ludicrous and based on no facts at all. Anyone sen a crippled economy laying around? We just got handed a 350USD million project last week by a major MNC, doesn't sound crippled to me

Just another westerner too lazy to do the on the ground research needed to really understand what is happening.

TH

I would totally agree with you but the tourist trade is hurting although some crazy people seem to think that this does not matter and has no relation to Thailand's overall economy

[thaigene2]

Yes, funny how "Indian Food Supplies" has had 13 views, 1 reply, and it is way up there on page one. Yet this post with 330+ views and a dozen replies is struggling to maintain page one. I'm sure most will simply nod in agreement with the content if they read it all - before the msot important parts were cut out.

Anyway, thanks to Jai Dee, who I believe is a pretty good guy - I have no doubt about his reasons for editing. Though does this mean that all Bangkok Post articles go through that editing on the News Article thread?

[elkangorito]

And just what can foreigners do about the next inevitable coup? Well, besides bitching & moaning on the forum, I guess we could pack up our pimples & puss off. I can hear it now..."Good riddance evil foreigners."...closely followed by a, "Where did all the money go? What's all this stuff about 'self sufficiency'? Oh well, I didn't really need to 'look good' with that new BMW anyway. I guess I'll go back to farming. Who cares about money anyway! We are Thai! We are united."

[DP25]

Just another westerner too lazy to do the on the ground research needed to really understand what is happening.

TH

The author of this report isn't even a Westerner. It is a Thai journalist only a few years out of university, who was hired by this organization less than a year ago. This has no more credibility or weight than your average editorial in any Thai newspaper. You can read the CV on group's website.

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5270&l=1

[phaethon]

Think Tank (noun) Storage place for people who are of no practical use i.e. members of society who cannot be used for food, fuel or cannon fodder.

[elkangorito]

I like the "Thai Elite warned..." bit. Unless warned by Thais, these "elite" smart people who run the country, will totally ignore any warnings. Pride is such a strong & stupid thing in this country. Of course, when the crap hits the fan, they'll all point to each other & say, "He did it. It wasn't me.

Children have more sense.

Edited September 24, 2008 by elkangorito

[lifeisrandom]

another coup would do nothing to change democracy in thailand

wow wow wow itd be a giant step back like there has ever been a step forward

ppp was a populist vote buying party

sondhi wants life time government members

<deleted> there is almost zero hope for any sort of "democracy" in thailand

investment isnt going to leave anytime soon

everyone is used to this shit by now

Edited September 24, 2008 by lifeisrandom

[elkangorito]

It makes one wonder if a "step forward" is really wanted.

Edited September 24, 2008 by elkangorito

[Howsitgoin]

The author of this report isn't even a Westerner. It is a Thai journalist only a few years out of university, who was hired by this organization less than a year ago. This has no more credibility or weight than your average editorial in any Thai newspaper. You can read the CV on group's website.

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5270&l=1

Rubbish.

ICG has been voted the most influential think tank in the world. Read the who's who on their board.

This analyst has been one of the most respected journalists here. Her expertise especially on the Southern Insurgency is almost unparalleled. She has broken, while working for AP, the story on Ruam Thai.

Here is the link to the complete report, you can download it as a PDF file:

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5689&l=1

Edited September 24, 2008 by Howsitgoin

[roamer]

Let me get this right; a leading think tank thinks there might be another coup in LOS ?

These folk are really up there with the atom splitters right ?

Oh well, the fact that they are most probably correct ranks them above The Masters of The Universe operating from Wall St.

[LaoPo]

Unfortunately copyright infringement is the reason why Bangkok Post articles cannot be posted in their entirety on ThaiVisa.

It is an interesting read... and I urge all interested members to view the article online before the inevitable link rot occurs in a few days time and the article can no longer be read.

No problem Jai Dee.

In this case I post the article, written by the ISG - International Crisis Group (at the bottom I will post a link, leading to the same article but written in Thai) ***:

Thailand: Calming the Political Turmoil

Asia Briefing N°82

22 September 2008

OVERVIEW

Street protests are threat­ening to bring down the government led by the People Power Party (PPP) just nine months after it won a decisive victory in general elections. Clashes between pro- and anti-government protesters have left one dead and 42 people injured. Mass action is hurting the economy, including the lucrative – and usually sacrosanct – tourism industry. The replacement of Samak Sundaravej with Somchai Wongsawat as prime minister is unlikely to defuse tensions. The immediate need is to restore the rule of law and authority of the government – not because it is perfect, but for the sake of stability and democracy. In the medium and longer term, the priorities must be to resolve political differences through democratic processes and to address the root causes of the current divisiveness, including the gap between the urban rich and the rural poor. Overthrowing the government – by street protesters or a military coup – will do nothing to resolve the political polarisation that is tearing Thailand apart.

The coalition of oppo­sition forces in the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) demanded that Samak, whom it views as a puppet of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shina­watra, step down. When he refused, the Constitutional Court disqualified him from office on a supposedly unrelated allegation of conflict of interests. However, the confrontation is far from over. The PAD has said that it opposes any leader from the six-party coalition government and is continuing its campaign of mass action, including by illegally occupying Government House. The rivalry reflects a deep polarisation between forces that favour and oppose Thaksin – the former supported by the rural poor in the North and North East, and the latter bringing together the royalist establishment, Bangkok middle classes, the military, intellectuals and some pro-democracy activists.

Whatever the govern­ment’s failings, it would be a serious blow to Thai democracy if it were forced out by extra-constitutional action, in clear violation of the wishes of the majority of the electorate, expressed as recently as December 2007. The Bangkok elite may not like the PPP-led government, but the majority have spoken clearly and repeatedly. Their democratic aspirations deserve respect.

Complaints of govern­ment incompetence or malpractice can and should be pursued through democratic and constitutional means, in­cluding the courts and parliament. But the PAD’s proposals for a “new politics” – essentially a reversion to government by the elite, with only 30 per cent of parliamentarians elected – is profoundly anti-democratic and a recipe for dictatorship. Even the current constitutional settlement – imposed by the military government last year – gives the courts and bureaucracy too much power to thwart and undermine an elected government for relatively minor failings. Samak has already been disqualified from office for an offence which in most countries would be regarded as trivial, and the future of the PPP-led government is under nearly as much threat in the courts as from the streets.

The political crisis raises the spectre of another military coup, which would be the eleventh since 1932 and the second in as many years. But, as in 2006, a coup will solve nothing, and would be a blow to Thailand’s fragile democracy. A return to military or elite rule should worry the international community, especially within the region as Thailand is often a bellwether for the state of democracy there. The current tur­moil is undermining its chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

A political and constitutional solution is urgently needed. The cycle of political crises in Bangkok is diverting attention from other key issues including the stumbling economy, the in­surgency in the South and Thailand’s relations with its neighbours, particularly Cambodia.

If Thailand is to step back from the brink of further political chaos, several actions are required:

*

All parties should commit to resolving their differences through peace­­ful and democratic means.

*

Senior establishment and army figures should cease sending mixed signals and make clear their support for Thailand’s elec­ted government and the rule of law.

*

The PAD should respect the rule of law and cease its illegal occupation of Government House, and the nine PAD leaders for whom arrest warrants have been issued should surrender.

*

Army leaders should negotiate with the PAD to end the occu­pation and remove the protesters, emphasising that the PAD’s legitimacy is undermined by its failure to respect the rule of law. The negotiations should be backed by graduated steps by the police – short of force – to end the occupation. If those techniques are exhausted but protesters remain and the negotiations stall, the police should make plans to evict them, if they are sure it can be achieved without bloodshed.

*

A consultative and inclusive process should be instituted to amend the military-imposed constitution with the aim of finding a balance between giving the exe­cutive sufficient power to govern and ensuring effective checks and balances.

*

The international com­munity – including Thailand’s ASEAN partners – should make clear to all parts of the Thai elite that another coup would meet with international condemnation, and that it would not continue to do business as usual with a government which came to power in such circumstances. ASEAN countries should emphasise the discredit which such a development would bring on the association at a time when Thailand holds the ASEAN chair.

From: http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5689&l=1

*** Same article in THAI:

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5690&l=1

LaoPo

[sriracha john]

Just another westerner too lazy to do the on the ground research needed to really understand what is happening.

TH

The author of this report isn't even a Westerner. It is a Thai journalist only a few years out of university, who was hired by this organization less than a year ago. This has no more credibility or weight than your average editorial in any Thai newspaper. You can read the CV on group's website.

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5270&l=1

good catch, DP25.

Wonder to what extent the input from others of this "think tank" was besides this young woman's opinion.

[Howsitgoin]

What bitter and twisted views here - instead of arguing the report some posters seemingly only have to resort to character assassination - the analyst's young age and her Thai nationality - because the criticism of PAD tactics does not conform to their opinions.

Yet not one reasonable and topical argument why these posters do not agree with the conclusion and recommendations of this report.

This is intellectual bankruptcy of the worst order.

[coalminer]

Unfortunately copyright infringement is the reason why Bangkok Post articles cannot be posted in their entirety on ThaiVisa.

But several articles from the Bangkok Post can be posted (copied) completely daily in the Google group "soc.culture.thai".

Speaking of double standards.

[thaigene2]

What bitter and twisted views here - instead of arguing the report some posters seemingly only have to resort to character assassination - the analyst's young age and her Thai nationality - because the criticism of PAD tactics does not conform to their opinions.

Yet not one reasonable and topical argument why these posters do not agree with the conclusion and recommendations of this report.

This is intellectual bankruptcy of the worst order.

Yep. The utter and complete hatred for Thaksin has let these guys bring Thailand to the state it's in. The PAD supporters/backers (and the ones pulling their strings) are playing that Thaksin card for all its worth to re-establish the sakdina dominancy of the economy and society - anyone who dares to point that the connection and its consequences for freedom and democracy gets tarred and feathered.

I'm glad to hear it was a Thai analysis..maybe there is still some hope? Maybe Thais are waking up to this?

[sriracha john]

What bitter and twisted views here - instead of arguing the report some posters seemingly only have to resort to character assassination - the analyst's young age and her Thai nationality - because the criticism of PAD tactics does not conform to their opinions.

Yet not one reasonable and topical argument why these posters do not agree with the conclusion and recommendations of this report.

This is intellectual bankruptcy of the worst order.

steady on, Colonel.

A small comment on just who precisely wrote the paper and what their background is does not constitute "bitter and twisted" "arguments." That sort of information is a very common consideration when reading as well as what level of corroboration was done amongst its members whenever a group project is released. Nothing was said about PAD.

Edited September 25, 2008 by sriracha john

[thaihome]

What bitter and twisted views here - instead of arguing the report some posters seemingly only have to resort to character assassination - the analyst's young age and her Thai nationality - because the criticism of PAD tactics does not conform to their opinions.

Yet not one reasonable and topical argument why these posters do not agree with the conclusion and recommendations of this report.

This is intellectual bankruptcy of the worst order.

I disagree, my post presented a reasonable argument as to why I do not agree with article. I did make a mistaken comment about the nationality of the author not realizing she was Thai.

Actually I agree with the conclusion, had the author stuck to that theme instead of going on with highly inflammable inaccurate assertions, particularly that the PAD demonstrations have "paralyzed" the economy.

It does not take a “think tank” to come up with the conclusion that another coup would not be beneficial to Thailand.

TH

[Samuian]

.....edit...inaccurate assertions, particularly that the PAD demonstrations have "paralyzed" the economy.

...

It's is exactly of the same making as blaming Soros of the Thai-financial crisis and right now many of the elements from these days are again lined up for the "new cabinet" to "lead this country to new horizons of prosperity, unity and out of national divide"?

I can see incredible interesting times coming up...

Edited September 25, 2008 by Samuian

[kmart]

"Groundhog Day" again and again....