Think Tank Says Thailand May Be Heading For Coup

[Howsitgoin]

I disagree, my post presented a reasonable argument as to why I do not agree with article. I did make a mistaken comment about the nationality of the author not realizing she was Thai.

Actually I agree with the conclusion, had the author stuck to that theme instead of going on with highly inflammable inaccurate assertions, particularly that the PAD demonstrations have "paralyzed" the economy.

It does not take a "think tank" to come up with the conclusion that another coup would not be beneficial to Thailand.

TH

I actually had not your post in mind when i made that comment.

The economy is not "crippled", but severely damaged by PAD and its tactics of creating maximum chaos. I would suggest not just to read the small news clipping, but the entire analyzes.

Anyhow, ICG reports are taken serious at the right places (maybe not by some expats in Thailand with not enough to do), and their analysts are experts. This particular author is very well respected, and was before she joined ICG one of the few bright lights of Thai journalism.

And you being a businessman, i would suggest to heed the warnings of this analyses when committing large sums of money to such a increasingly instable country.

Yet, it is only good that not all investors run off. But don't be surprised when this place goes to shit within a few years.

[thaihome]

I seriously doubt that any major MNC pays the least bit of attention to any report by some this “think tank: you seem to take so seriously when deciding whether to invest several hundred million dollars in Thailand. If you think so, then you don't know shit about world wide business.

Just to put in perspective, several companies have invested billions in Nigeria (and keep doing so). Now there is a risk.

Oh and the economy is not even slightly damaged by the PAD demonstrations. If you think so, pleas provide proof, and saying tourist level are down doesn't cut it. There are other, much bigger factors, as to why people are not traveling as much as last year. Tourism is down worldwide, not just Thailand.

TH

[Howsitgoin]

I seriously doubt that any major MNC pays the least bit of attention to any report by some this "think tank: you seem to take so seriously when deciding whether to invest several hundred million dollars in Thailand. If you think so, then you don't know shit about world wide business.

Just to put in perspective, several companies have invested billions in Nigeria (and keep doing so). Now there is a risk.

Oh and the economy is not even slightly damaged by the PAD demonstrations. If you think so, pleas provide proof, and saying tourist level are down doesn't cut it. There are other, much bigger factors, as to why people are not traveling as much as last year. Tourism is down worldwide, not just Thailand.

TH

Well, last year this particular think thank has been voted the most influental think tank in the world. Governments do pay attention.

And yes, you are right, MNC's may not pay much attention, but then, MNC's have been known to lose their investments as well. I am not in any way connected to MNC's other than meeting the occasional CEO and GM at one or the other function. Their farts stink as much as mine do.

Thai economy is not just the dealings of MNCs, who may not yet be affected (and of whom i have not that much knowledge). Thai economy also is the micro-level and that has been affected badly.

[DP25]

Anyhow, ICG reports are taken serious at the right places (maybe not by some expats in Thailand with not enough to do), and their analysts are experts. This particular author is very well respected, and was before she joined ICG one of the few bright lights of Thai journalism.

Oh please. You're hyping her up because you agree with her political opinions. She's a 20 something year old Thai journalist who speaks good enough English to get hired by a Western NGO as an 'expert'. Her opinion is not any more expert than any other Thai journalist editorial.

[Howsitgoin]

Anyhow, ICG reports are taken serious at the right places (maybe not by some expats in Thailand with not enough to do), and their analysts are experts. This particular author is very well respected, and was before she joined ICG one of the few bright lights of Thai journalism.

Oh please. You're hyping her up because you agree with her political opinions. She's a 20 something year old Thai journalist who speaks good enough English to get hired by a Western NGO as an 'expert'. Her opinion is not any more expert than any other Thai journalist editorial.

Actually, no.

I have met her on several occasions, and i do admire her intellect, her courage and her professionalism. I do not know her political opinions, but i do agree with the findings of her analyzes based on rational thought and not just because it reflects my own "opinion".

But in todays debate rational thought is unfortunately rare.

ICG is not "a Western NGO", it is a leading think tank that operates worldwide at the highest level. There is a huge difference. Please, before making such comments, familiarize yourself with their operating procedures.

[LaoPo]

Just another westerner too lazy to do the on the ground research needed to really understand what is happening.

TH

The author of this report isn't even a Westerner. It is a Thai journalist only a few years out of university, who was hired by this organization less than a year ago. This has no more credibility or weight than your average editorial in any Thai newspaper. You can read the CV on group's website.

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5270&l=1

good catch, DP25.

Wonder to what extent the input from others of this "think tank" was besides this young woman's opinion.

Maybe the previous posters are willing to tell me WHERE it says that the above mentioned Thai Lady -Ms Rungrawee Chalermsripinyorat- was responsible for the article and that SHE DID WRITE the article ?

The contacts are:

Contacts: Andrew Stroehlein (Brussels) +32 (0) 2 541 1635

Kimberly Abbott (Washington) +1 202 785 1601

That does NOT include said Thai Lady.

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?...id=5689&m=1

And, Sriracha John, If you wonder "to what extent the input from others of this "think tank" was besides this young woman's opinion" WHY don't you send them an email and ask them, instead asking here ?

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=1142&l=1

I'm amazed that you -SRJ- did NOT double check whether poster DP25 was correct. "Good Catch DP25" ???...Since when do you believe every single poster what he/she writes ?

He (she?) wrote in a later post that it was just "She's a 20 something year old Thai journalist who speaks good enough English to get hired by a Western NGO as an 'expert'; I find this an unbelievable ignorant comment and simply "not done".

Maybe this fine young Thai Lady -fluent in English- has a higher education than poster DP25...her CV is at least impressive:

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5270&l=1

I find it quite revolting how some posters allow themselves to write disgusting comments about someone -an educated intelligent Thai Lady- they don't even know and at the same time are not even SURE she even wrote said article....

LaoPo

[sriracha john]

Just another westerner too lazy to do the on the ground research needed to really understand what is happening.

TH

The author of this report isn't even a Westerner. It is a Thai journalist only a few years out of university, who was hired by this organization less than a year ago. This has no more credibility or weight than your average editorial in any Thai newspaper. You can read the CV on group's website.

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5270&l=1

good catch, DP25.

Wonder to what extent the input from others of this "think tank" was besides this young woman's opinion.

Maybe the previous posters are willing to tell me WHERE it says that the above mentioned Thai Lady -Ms Rungrawee Chalermsripinyorat- was responsible for the article and that SHE DID WRITE the article ? [/b][/color]

Because in one of the original links to the article that I read, it said so. That it had been prepared by the Thai representative of ICG.

The contacts are:[/b]

Contacts: Andrew Stroehlein (Brussels) +32 (0) 2 541 1635

Kimberly Abbott (Washington) +1 202 785 1601

That does NOT include said Thai Lady.

It also doesn't mean those two wrote it... look at their positions on the ICG website.

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?...id=5689&m=1

And, Sriracha John, If you wonder "to what extent the input from others of this "think tank" was besides this young woman's opinion" WHY don't you send them an email and ask them, instead asking here ?

Can't I ask questions here? :D I was curious to find out how much other input there was from others at ICG beside the Thai rep. And as it sounded like some of the posters here were knowledgeable about the ICG I posted my question.

I'm amazed that you -SRJ- did NOT double check whether poster DP25 was correct. "Good Catch DP25" ???...Since when do you believe every single poster what he/she writes ?

I thought it was a good catch to find the background that was posted as a link. When I first read the article days earlier, I never personally followed up and researched the background of the Thai rep of ICG that was listed as the preparer in that version of it. (btw, there are many, many versions of it online) I believed it because I had first read previously myself about how the Thai rep for ICG had prepared it.

He (she?) wrote in a later post that it was just "She's a 20 something year old Thai journalist who speaks good enough English to get hired by a Western NGO as an 'expert'; I find this an unbelievable ignorant comment and simply "not done".

Maybe this fine young Thai Lady -fluent in English- has a higher education than poster DP25...her CV is at least impressive:

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5270&l=1

I find it quite revolting how some posters allow themselves to write disgusting comments about someone -an educated intelligent Thai Lady- they don't even know and at the same time are not even SURE she even wrote said article....

LaoPo[/color]

As I didn't comment on the later post perhaps it best if you break down your post and quote the later post and inquire directly to that poster instead of addressing it to me.

perhaps you and the Colonel could both slow down and not read nearly so much into what I post or direct your posts to those individuals that wrote them.

P.S. I didn't write any "disgusting comments" about anyone unless you consider being referred to as "young" as "disgusting."

Edited September 25, 2008 by sriracha john

[thaigene2]

I am so very happy that a Chinese-Thai woman (i'm guessing by her name) has had the guts to go against the grain.

You PAD supporters kept talking about the 'brave' PAD people demonstrating, which was always so laugable since we all knew then and still know that powerful sakdina families back the PAD - so there was no bravery involved, and that's why the so-called 'polcie and army' won;t make a move. A PAD oppenet was beated to death - and carried away and beaten some more- all in the view of cameras with the perps faces hanging out for all to see. Any arrests? Nope. Why? You know why.

This woman is the real hero - and maybe one day, in the real brave thailand, she'll be given a medal. I'd cheer that. Good for her. This is what real legends are made of. You can side with big brother...but the rest of us are keeping score. Shaved heads one day?

Edited September 25, 2008 by thaigene2

[LaoPo]

As I didn't comment on the later post perhaps it best if you break down your post and quote the later post and inquire directly to that poster instead of addressing it to me.

perhaps you and the Colonel could both slow down and not read nearly so much into what I post or direct your posts to those individuals that wrote them.

P.S. I didn't write any "disgusting comments" about anyone unless you consider being referred to as "young" as "disgusting."

1. I have cut the messages, above, as I received a message last week from one of the mods with a kind request NOT to repeat a whole series of messages; that's why.

2. If you say: "it said so", that she -Rungrawee Chalermsripinyorat- actually wrote the whole article, I'm sure you can supply us with that link saying: "That it had been prepared by the Thai representative of ICG." ?

Maybe she was PART of a whole group, writing the report. That doesn't mean she was responsible or is an excuse to ridicule her.

3. You realize very well SRJ that it was the 'tone' I was writing about; the 'tone' that it was -just- a young woman, and thus her findings and article (IF it was her article) was of NO importance; that, at least, was the tenure of your and DP25's message, to ridicule the young woman's opinion.

To say now that there are many, many versions*** of the report around is weird and silly since the link shows where the article comes from: The International Crisis Group: http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?l=1 and the link with the MEDIA RELEASE: http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?...id=5689&m=1

Your 'good catch, DP25' was not meant to point at the link but merely to ridicule the young woman as you write in the same message: "Wonder to what extent the input from others of this "think tank" was besides this young woman's opinion. BECAUSE in that link it does NOT say that it was "this young woman" who wrote the article ! You just assumed it was her and NOW you say that you read the article "days earlier"....but still: "good catch, DP25"..

You're trying to find a way out...not very chique.

4. I don't know what you mean by the "Colonel" but I'm quite relaxed, just wanted to point at your mistake, jumping to conclusions about someone: the Young Thai Lady Journalist involved.

You know what ? I have a lot of respect for highly educated and intelligent women like her, whether she wrote the article or not; I applaud her !

*** http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?l=1 THE ORIGINAL VERSION of the report: Thailand: Calming the Political Turmoil -12 pages-

written by: Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°82, 22 September 2008

Maybe a good read for DP25 and yourself before making any comments or is it only the 'old soldiers' who have a right to write something - instead (possible) young Thai women ?

LaoPo

Edited September 25, 2008 by LaoPo

[sriracha john]

I am sorry you feel that being "young" is "disgusting".... I don't feel the same.

[thaihome]

...Thai economy also is the micro-level and that has been affected badly.

Just you saying so does not make it a fact. Please provide proof.

As a matter of fact, all I have read is what a boom the demonstrations have been for various vendors in the area.

I am also familiar with the small business in Thailand as my wife owns one. She is completely unaffected and business continues as normal, though like all small business owners she continually complains how bad it is.

TH

[Howsitgoin]

...Thai economy also is the micro-level and that has been affected badly.

Just you saying so does not make it a fact. Please provide proof.

As a matter of fact, all I have read is what a boom the demonstrations have been for various vendors in the area.

I am also familiar with the small business in Thailand as my wife owns one. She is completely unaffected and business continues as normal, though like all small business owners she continually complains how bad it is.

TH

1.8 Million people are directly employed by tourism industry (and how many are linked to this industry in the more informal sectors are a multitude of this number).

The number that has been around were 70% of tourist cancellations (and here we are mostly talking the large Asian markets of China, Malaysia and Japan, not the markets so far directly affected by the financial crises in the US and the UK). Make your own calculations.

Small localized related strikes, such as in rice mills have affected the farming sector.

An atmosphere of fear has been created in Thailand, at every level of society. As the crises is still not over, fear prevails, this will naturally be reflected in a reluctance of investors (maybe not in MNC's and their western expat executives).

This is an inane discussion, i am sorry to say. A country that has been for three years in political and social turmoil, had a military coup, had in all that time hardly functioning governments, naturally is affected economically. Especially when it's seat of government is occupied by a right wing pressure group for more than a month now.

But it's OK, MNC's still invest hundreds of millions (according to you), vendors in the area of demonstrations make a killing, and a wife's small business runs without a problem. Therefore all is dandy.

Yet foreign embassies and their political sections run overtime to send reports of the mess to their relevant ministries and services, security situation in Thailand is worsening by the day as police simply has not the manpower to keep up their regular duties and oversee the "demonstration". One administration falls after the other, and the ruling party is closed to dissolution.

But of course, it's business as usual. Because, it's Thailand, the Land of Smile, the wet dream of sun-, wife- and sex starved westerners on the search of paradise.

Lets just ignore the report of the world's leading think tank, because being employed as a small wheel by an MNC gives one the wisdom of the world, far superior than this think tank's - whose board members are top level politicians, diplomats and businessmen (such as George Soros), and whose field analysts are chosen among the brightest experts in their relevant fields and countries.

What more has to happen until some people here realize that Thailand is in a extremely critical situation.

Just read the whole report, for crying out loud, and argue the report instead of me, read the list of board members of ICG, before making these very uneducated comments about their supposed lack of expertise.

[sriracha john]

ahhh... the same ultimate gloom and horrendous despair with Thailand on the verge of civil war this afternoon and complete collapse tomorrow morning. After months and months and many more months and then a few more months followed by months and months of the same posts, Colonel, perhaps it will eventually one day happen and then you can say.... "told you so"

[Andrew Hicks]

Yea right.. the leading euro think tank got it wrong, and YOU'RE right. Absolutely. Have another beer.

[/quote

Think tank speak with forked tongue.

There 'may' be a coup? There definitely will be some further upset. It's just the matter of the form it takes.

Certainly it's become more complex than a cycle of military coups. Try civilian ones instead.

[endure]

Unfortunately copyright infringement is the reason why Bangkok Post articles cannot be posted in their entirety on ThaiVisa.

But several articles from the Bangkok Post can be posted (copied) completely daily in the Google group "soc.culture.thai".

Speaking of double standards.

soc.culture.thai has no "owner" and thus cannot be threatened with legal action.

[Plus]

I am so very happy that a Chinese-Thai woman (i'm guessing by her name) has had the guts to go against the grain.

I thought all she did was copy-paste from PPP press release.

"We are the legitimate government, with a clear mandate from the electorate, all differences must be resolved via legitimate democratic means, through parliament, corruption allegations must be addressed through courts, PAD is applying non-constitutional methods, it should leave the government house immediately and let the elected party do its job. If PAD doesn't like it, they have to wait until next elections."

Her proposed list of solutions is so implausible that even PPP itself doesn't try them anymore.

>>>

I don't know of the overall impact of PAD on the economy, they have demonstrated that they are capable of inflicting major disruptions, but they also backed off when they got their point across.

It seems many people don't get the idea that PAD is not the cause of the present troubles, it's only a symptom. Sort of an allergic reaction, the cause lies somewhere else, and unless the cause is addressed, the symptoms would only change shape and place, they will never go away.

Edited September 26, 2008 by Plus

[Howsitgoin]

It seems many people don't get the idea that PAD is not the cause of the present troubles, it's only a symptom. Sort of an allergic reaction, the cause lies somewhere else, and unless the cause is addressed, the symptoms would only change shape and place, they will never go away.

Many people are more than aware of the fact that PAD is just a symptom of certain structural problems of a collapsing system. Their vile ultra-nationalism is a counter reaction to aspirations of large sectors to be finally part of the political decision making process.

The rise of Thaksin was equally a symptom of structural problems, only that he at least worked mostly within the parameters of the system, and never wanted to replace the entire system with a fantasy based on brain farts born out of the extremist minds of leftist, rightist and religious maniacs.

Presently - the PAD is the most destructive force in Thailand. Staying with the use of analogies - they rapidly move from being just a symptom in a sick body to a virus that might finally kill it.

Anyhow - i would wish that at least one of the posters that disagree with the ICG report would finally rationally argue the report itself, and what they see as a weakness in this report, instead of summarily shooting it down without citing any counteranalyses.

May i make a beginning here?

As good as i find the report - i believe that it leaves out one very important point - a proper analyses of the pro-government groups under the umbrella of "Nor Por Chor". Most take it for granted that these groups are simply paid Thaksinites, yet do underestimate the fact that they are varied groups often with ideologies that may ally themselves with TRT/PPP, but with also very independent agendas and visions for Thailand's future.

The longer PAD is allowed to create chaos, the more instable the whole system becomes (which is clearly part of PAD agenda). In this vacuum nobody can predict what may come, and in that case a future military coup may not be the worst that could happen.

Edited September 26, 2008 by Howsitgoin

[LaoPo]

I am sorry you feel that being "young" is "disgusting".... I don't feel the same.

Don't write something that I NEVER wrote, said nor felt about the young woman. That's low !

I wrote: "I have a lot of respect for highly educated and intelligent women like her, whether she wrote the article or not; I applaud her !"

YOU certainly did NOT applaud her, instead you are a champion in twisting my words. No class.

LaoPo

[sriracha john]

I'm glad you mention words...

My words...

this young woman's opinion.

Then, your words to my words...

I find it quite revolting how some posters allow themselves to write disgusting comments about someone

Then, my reiteration of my words to your words...

P.S. I didn't write any "disgusting comments" about anyone unless you consider being referred to as "young" as "disgusting."

Then, your words to my reiteration of my words...

Your 'good catch, DP25' was not meant to point at the link but merely to ridicule the young woman as you write in the same message: "Wonder to what extent the input from others of this "think tank" was besides this young woman's opinion.

Finally, my logical conclusion to your words...

I am sorry you feel that being "young" is "disgusting".... I don't feel the same.

Do you see how words can have extra meaning if you underline, italicize, enlarge, bold, and colorize them or multiple combination of all five? (which I haven't deleted in this abbreviated version of the interaction)

When you do those things... simple words now contain the erroneous "tone" you mentioned earlier... words assume meanings that aren't there... and all sorts of misconceptions about what someone writes occurs. The only comment I said about her was that she was young.

See, it's ok if you italicize, underline, enlarge, bold, and colorize your own words... it's when you do that to other people's words, that's when words take on a life of their own and mis-perceptions, like yours to my simple two sentence post, occur.

Edited September 26, 2008 by sriracha john

[uptou]

Bring it on!!!

Another coup will no doubt scare off alot more potential tourists,which may (velly big may) actually cause the ThaiRakThai thinking government to take care of the long time stayers abit better as far as visas go.Oh well just a dream.

[OxfordWill]

The Thaivisa think tank concludes that we have no conclusion. Retreats to farang pub forum for breather.

[wayfarer108]

Naive:

The current political crisis dates back to the 2001

The coup/constitution/election/protest/coup cycle is a time-honoured tradition in Thai politics dating back to the 1940s.

Out of date:

[PAD] has proposed a “new politics” ... containing 70 per cent appointees and only 30 per cent elected representatives

Report is dated 22 September 2008, well after the 70/30 idea--which was never set in stone to begin with--was abandoned.

Most crucially the author never seriously addresses the most fundamental question raised by the PAD and its supporters and sympathisers, ie whether the popular vote is the most functional and just political system for Thailand. The presumption throughout is that popular-vote democracy is the only way forward and that any other alternative is 'a recipe for dictatorship'.

I'm not questioning the ICG as a whole, nor the analyst herself, rather just this particular report, which tells us absolutely nothing new.

By the way, the ICG describes itself as an NGO, and its largest single source of funding is government agencies (all of them Western).

[StreetCowboy]

The Thaivisa think tank concludes that we have no conclusion. Retreats to farang pub forum for breather.

Does the TV Think tank even have a list of possible outcomes?

It seems to me that the only thing worse than the government surviving this crisis is if it does not.

It would seem sensible for the PAD to allow themselves to be forcibly evicted from the airports without starting a civil war. THat would restore the face of the police, without incurring too much loss of life, and hopefully restore some credibility to Thailand in international opinion.

What are the alternatives?

- The government gives way to mob politics, a Democrat government is appointed and the UDD and PAD to swap places?

- Police or troops loyal to the government forcibly remove the protesters against stong and violent opposition, resulting in severe loss of life and damage to the airports, and loss of confidence from the international community

- The army stages a coup, and the UDD take to the streets; possibly raising militias from the rural areas, resulting in months or years of unrest, no political stability, and loss of confidence from the international community (and maybe sanctions to drive out any residual overseas investment)

Any other credible alternatives?

SC

[mgjackson69]

"Thailand *may* be headed for a coup"? We need a think tank to tell us this?

They could say the same about any country and it would be accurate.

This reminds me of listening to CNN as Desert Shield was transitioning to Desert Storm. One of the talking heads asked Wolf Blitzer (at the Pentagon), "Is there any doubt in anyone's mind there that we might be headed to war?"

hel_l, if it is that easy I will start my think tank next week.