Quiet On The Oil Front

[tartempion]

Shortage of oil, peak oil cause oil price to rise towards 200 USD/barrel before the end of 2008.

Many here said price increase had nothing to do with speculation

New prediction:

Oil will soon drop to less than 50 USD , maybe even back to the 25 of 5 years ago?

[britmaveric]

I did predict $50-$75 by the end of the year I might add.

[Gumballl]

Shortage of oil, peak oil cause oil price to rise towards 200 USD/barrel before the end of 2008.

Many here said price increase had nothing to do with speculation

New prediction:

Oil will soon drop to less than 50 USD , maybe even back to the 25 of 5 years ago?

Have you not read the news lately? "Shorters" were predicting that oil prices will rise... and they did for a while. But long-term the "shorters" knew that prices were not sustainable, and during the period of rise, they bought, err shorted, oil stocks/futures. Then magically the price of oil fell... and keeps falling... after everyone caught on that the elevated prices were bogus. The "shorters" made a wind-fall of money.

It looks like there are a players out there who know how to play the "game". Recently these same charlatans were playing with another sector... the banking. Today, everything is fair game.

At the end of the day though, all I can say is more power to them (the "shorters"). They took a risk and won; the timid lost (big).

Edited October 10, 2008 by Gumballl

[lannarebirth]

It looks like there are a players out there who know how to play the "game". Recently these same charlatans were playing with another sector... the banking. Today, everything is fair game.

Actually, the Banks are the ones who are short each other. And they've got the US Treasury as their daytrading account. My, how times change.

Edited October 10, 2008 by lannarebirth

[phaethon]

It was reported on the BBC news last week that OPEC nations would be meeting to decide how much to cut production in order to drive the price back up to their target price of $100/barrel

[naklang]

I did predict $50-$75 by the end of the year I might add.

As did I.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=2152248

[VegasVic]

Shortage of oil, peak oil cause oil price to rise towards 200 USD/barrel before the end of 2008.

Many here said price increase had nothing to do with speculation

New prediction:

Oil will soon drop to less than 50 USD , maybe even back to the 25 of 5 years ago?

Yes indeed where are those folks, and at the same time when gold was $1000/ounce the goldbugs said that $1500 was a lock, and I posted relentlessly that people should short oil (when it was in the upper $130's) and short gold (at $1000) and go long the Dollar, but sadly my predictions fell on deaf ears and now we have many eurofiles and brits here crying in their beer Britmaverick was one of the few who was right there with me calling for oil to tumble, kudos to you Brit, I hope you made some nice $ on the situation as I did

[PeaceBlondie]

Indeed, how things do change. What strikes me now is the same feeling I had in 1989-1990, when the Soviet Colossus died almost overnight and almost 100 percent nonviolently. It collapsed from within, from its own failed ideology, in a manner least expected. What has it taken here - 2 or 3 weeks? The more things change, the more they change far quicker than they used to.

Oil prices may not go over $100 a barrel for a long time. Then again, it might hit $200 next month. The old prediction models may be nonsense in seeing the future.

[VegasVic]

Indeed, how things do change. What strikes me now is the same feeling I had in 1989-1990, when the Soviet Colossus died almost overnight and almost 100 percent nonviolently. It collapsed from within, from its own failed ideology, in a manner least expected. What has it taken here - 2 or 3 weeks? The more things change, the more they change far quicker than they used to.

Oil prices may not go over $100 a barrel for a long time. Then again, it might hit $200 next month. The old prediction models may be nonsense in seeing the future.

P.B. The only thing that could move oil towards $200/bbl at this point in time would be an all out nuclear war in the middle east. If Israel were to strike Iran it will not be with nukes, and they will be surgical strikes that will not affect the petroleum infrastructure. Oil is headed lower and will remain there for the foreseeable future

[naklang]

Gold at $859 per barrel? Now THAT is a deflationary firesale! Back up the truck boys!

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?.../f160309D01.DTL

[britmaveric]

Britmaverick was one of the few who was right there with me calling for oil to tumble, kudos to you Brit, I hope you made some nice $ on the situation as I did

Made a fair few bob VegasVic, and if what I think is happening - a lot more is coming my way.

[glyph]

Anytime a commodity price rises, the doom-and-gloomers come out in force. When the predictions don't come true, they remain mum, or simply disappear. Johnnys-come-lately jump on the respective bandwagons all too late, and watch their investments turn into dust.

I found the handful of TVers who posted "I'm buying Chinese Yuan because I read somewhere that Warren Buffet is doing it" to be especially humorous.

Relating to recent Thailand news, in January, 2008, a governmental official claimed that it would take Thailand "10 years to solve the rice crisis!" During CNY, Thais returning to BKK brought back thousands of kilos of cheap rice. Less than 2 weeks later, every store, every mom-and-pop outlet in BKK had all the reasonably-priced rice you could ever want. As for the folks who brought back all of that rice...they're eating old rice.

[pampal]

Being from an oil producing/exporting country, I hope that the price goes as high as possible

[Sakeopete]

Being in the oil business myself I hope it stays at a reasonable level so people forget all these fuel efficient car nonsense and start buying SUV's again. Same as what happened after the oil embargo's of the 70's. You will see a dramatic reduction in alternative energy investments soon.