Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[crusader79]

Subject:: Marc Faber's recent prognosis on gold

A comment on a zerohedge.com thread had a poster claiming that recently Faber said after climbing to $1,500 gold, along with bonds, would crash in a deflataionary colllaspe. I listened to rhe Bloomberg interview attached to the article and never heard that, only that there would be a correction and then further upward movement in early '11. Can anyone confirm Faber did actually say that and/or express your views on the matter. I understand the deflationary effects on all assets but a pog crash??!! TIA..

He's expecting corrections in both equity markets and gold (this year) but remains very bullish on gold long term:

http://marcfaberblog...e-are-very.html

Faber's usually right

Dr Marc Faber's track record for calling such major market moves has been outstanding in the decade that he has been known to ArabianMoney. Sometimes he is like the boy in the parable of the emperor with no clothes, and what he says should be blinding obvious but nobody will admit it.

Today the bond market is an obvious bubble. Interest rates are perilously low and this completely distorts the investment world leaving savers with little income. But this sort of financial conjuring trick only works for so long and the saucerer's plates eventually all come tumbling down.

Then savers get their interest again. Real estate, stocks and bonds take a big hit from higher interest rates. The dollar at first will surge in value, probably depressing precious metal prices too in the process, although they are increasingly just another currency, albeit one that pays no interest.

But the Fed response to this crisis will be to learn nothing and print even more money, and that will finally result in runaway inflation. Only then will you want to be invested in stocks to rise with this tide.

This looks like being a very tough phase to be invested in any major asset class so the main advice seems to be to stay liquid, ironically being long the dollar seems the best defense against Fed action specifically designed to weaken the greenback.

But you would want to convert that cash back into real assets like gold, silver, houses and stocks before the great inflation. In any case that is ArabianMoney's interpretation of how rising interest rates will play out, assuming that Marc Faber is right again.

However, for the record Dr Marc Faber has stock markets correcting in October/November in his latest newsletter and does not see stocks as a good investment now as suggested in an inaccurate Bloomberg report yesterday.

http://tannerinvestm...s-going-up.html

[Pranakhon]

Yeah crusader i have been all over the net and can't find confirmation of Faber's alleging of a pog crash. The commenter must have either been a troll or an idiot or both. I am well aware of Faber's track record. That's why I felt the need to verify if he actually did say anything of the sort. . Cheers

[crusader79]

Yeah crusader i have been all over the net and can't find confirmation of Faber's alleging of a pog crash. The commenter must have either been a troll or an idiot or both. I am well aware of Faber's track record. That's why I felt the need to verify if he actually did say anything of the sort. . Cheers

Here's a summary of the November report, just out (gotta check my mailbox, I'm a subscriber):

http://blackswaninsights.blogspot.com/2010/10/marc-fabers-november-outlook.html

[flying]

Hey I see Silver has gone over the $25/oz mark in Asia Euro land

Hope it is treat & not trick as it is Halloween still here in the US

[churchill]

Gold/Silver in a win win situation again ? Too much QE USD down / too little QE USD perhaps spike up but then down / Only If THEY get it just right and USD + currencies stabalise will PM's fall - perhaps ?

[churchill]

QE2 risks currency wars and the end of dollar hegemony

As the US Federal Reserve meets today to decide whether its next blast of quantitative easing should be $1 trillion or a more cautious $500bn, it does so knowing that China and the emerging world view the policy as an attempt to drive down the dollar.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/8103462/QE2-risks-currency-wars-and-the-end-of-dollar-hegemony.html

[churchill]

Gold/Silver in a win win situation again ? Too much QE USD down / too little QE USD perhaps spike up but then down / Only If THEY get it just right and USD + currencies stabalise will PM's fall - perhaps ?

Would less QE be supportive for the USD ? Perhaps short term but what happens then the the US Economy declines and cannot get out of recession - The USD will go down - It seems it is destined to fall whatever ?

and from Kitco Market Nugget: Republican Gains Could Be Supportive For Gold In Longer Term: Barclays

'Any disappointment in quantitative easing from the Federal Open Market Committee this week could boost the dollar, say Barclays Capital analysts. This tends to hurt gold. However, a Republican majority in the House of Representatives and reduced Democratic majority in the Senate may be supportive, Barclays says. This would result in split power that could mean difficulties passing any economic-stimulus measures and thus continued reliance on unconventional monetary policy easing. This could offset the earlier short-term factors and continue to weigh on USD (the U.S. dollar) over the longer term, Barclays says. Barring any significant deterioration in euro-zone prospects, this would be supportive for gold prices. '

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNewsMarketNuggets20101101_5.html

Edited November 2, 2010 by churchill

[churchill]

Robin Griffiths - Exponential Move in Gold & Silver

'Ahead of the Fed announcement on QE, King World News interviewed one of the top strategists in the world, Robin Griffiths of Cazenove Capital. When asked about QE 2, Robin stated, “The fed would appear not to be going to blink, it’s going to keep printing dollars, and almost all of the cross rates on the currency markets are saying, ‘The dollar is toast, the dollar is really toast.’ There’s no sign of a reversal there.” '

continued ..http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/11/2_Robin_Griffiths_-_Exponential_Move_in_Gold_%26_Silver.html

[churchill]

Set for a rocket ?

Ready steady ......

[flying]

Set for a rocket ?

Ready steady ......

Aye aye captain

But will the dilithium crystals hold sir?

Better check with Worf....errr Naam

[flying]

New COMEX Related Silver Manipulation Lawsuit Includes Charges of 'Racketeering'

"What we know about the scope and intent of JP Morgan and HSBC's actions in this short-selling scheme dwarfs any other similar attempt to manipulate a commodities market."

Edited November 4, 2010 by flying

[Naam]

Set for a rocket ?

Ready steady ......

Aye aye captain

But will the dilithium crystals hold sir?

Better check with Worf....errr Naam

ignition failed, dilithium crystals shrivelling, liquid oxygen leaking, birds pecking at insulation, Dyler Zero Turd cursing inept ground crew, alphaville journàssgloomists desperately gasping... "any time from now.......!"

and last not least Churchill keeps on putting booooooooring question marks at the end of his first sentence

[Naam]

today is a good day to die to count cash. clink... clink... clink... clinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclink... clinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclink...

[churchill]

Set for a rocket ?

Ready steady ......

Aye aye captain

But will the dilithium crystals hold sir?

Better check with Worf....errr Naam

ignition failed, dilithium crystals shrivelling, liquid oxygen leaking, birds pecking at insulation, Dyler Zero Turd cursing inept ground crew, alphaville journàssgloomists desperately gasping... "any time from now.......!"

and last not least Churchill keeps on putting booooooooring question marks at the end of his first sentence

Noted !

Zimbernake is doing his best to light the ignition with a few banksters trying desperately douse the flames but will be launching shortly ....

[teletiger]

today is a good day to die to count cash. clink... clink... clink... clinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclink... clinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclinkclink...

:sleepy:

Regards.

[wordchild]

The language of the gold bulls reminds me somewhat of the late stages of the tech bubble! If i had any gold in my teeth (sadly i dont) i would remove it and sell it now. but there we are,just my opinion.

Edited November 4, 2010 by wordchild

[churchill]

The Fed's $600 Billion Statement, Translated Into Plain English

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2010/11/03/131043062/federal-reserve

[churchill]

The language of the gold bulls reminds me somewhat of the late stages of the tech bubble! If i had any gold in my teeth (sadly i dont) i would remove it and sell it now. but there we are,just my opinion.

So a few more flames needed

Asia Gold-Sales brisk as Diwali nears; Thai investors buy

http://malaysia.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20101104/tap-gold-physicals-c3bb44c.html

and

China Gold Demand May Double to 900 Tons in a Decade

http://www.chinamining.org/News/2010-11-04/1288833849d40423.html

as fewer people are selling / central banks are buying / more demand than supply - rising prices - seems logical /

[Naam]

as fewer people are selling / central banks are buying / more demand than supply - rising prices - seems logical /

you know that and we know that. but gold does not move. doesn't gold read Dyler Alpha Turd?

[churchill]

New COMEX Related Silver Manipulation Lawsuit Includes Charges of 'Racketeering'

"What we know about the scope and intent of JP Morgan and HSBC's actions in this short-selling scheme dwarfs any other similar attempt to manipulate a commodities market."

If manipulation ends silver prices could rise sharply

'As far as I am concerned, these banks have done individuals a favour. They have kept the price suppressed and thereby have given us the opportunity to buy this precious metal at prices that are totally undervalued. But, this scenario is about to change and so, I urge investors to take advantage of these low prices in silver and add silver bullion to their portfolios.'

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=114217&sn=Detail&pid=102055

[Naam]

"Asia Gold-Sales brisk as Diwali nears"

tomorow is Deevali. all asian goldshops presently swamped by Hindus... in a lot of shops Hindus brawl to buy the few left remnants... riot police in Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai in action... Malaysia and Singapore announce curfews to control goldshop looting by gold lusting Injuns... gold price skyrocketing... mines will work overtime this weekend...

breaking news: global trend = bakeries install steel shutters and owners ready their kalashnikovs to fend of bidders.

source: http://www.naams_bullshit-news.org

[flying]

'As far as I am concerned, these banks have done individuals a favor. They have kept the price suppressed and thereby have given us the opportunity to buy this precious metal at prices that are totally undervalued.

I sure did at $9.45 an ounce

I would like to say it was my idea....

But it was due to the gold shortage/rush at that time & the urgings of my dealer that a 77/1 silver/gold ratio HAD to be bought.

[flying]

The language of the gold bulls reminds me somewhat of the late stages of the tech bubble! If i had any gold in my teeth (sadly i dont) i would remove it and sell it now. but there we are,just my opinion.

I do remember the tech bubble & had fun but while this is exciting at times .....what hasn't been exciting in the markets since the crisis?

I have said before & will again that I do not feel this is a bubble at all.

All it is reflecting at this time is the descent of the dollar.

Here is the decade past for the dollar...

Someday there may be a gold bubble but, that day will be after all the funds & their brothers pile into gold.

So far they are only giving it a cursory glance .

Also my guess is that like the recent silver manipulation discovery the day will come when physical & paper prices are far apart due to eventual lack of trust in all things paper.

All just IMO as usual

Edited November 4, 2010 by flying

[flying]

I know it is the gold thread but....Silver has passed into the USD $22/oz area here in the US

Not too shabby

By the way...Silver broke $23 here today.

Hey I see Silver has gone over the $25/oz mark in Asia Euro land

Well...............

Silver has just surfed over the $26/oz mark

Yes my Klingon friend that is in US dollars only

Still the word impressive comes to mind

[Naam]

"Still the word impressive comes to mind"

no doubt about that my Earthling friend. also interesting is the trend as far as gold/silver ratio is concerned (below 53 now!) and i am naturally watching how gold is priced in other currencies. inspite of his recent impressive performance in USD terms it has not yet reached the highs vs. EUR of some months ago.

looking forward how my asia-pacific gold mines will do today. when things moved yesterday the exchanges in Asia were already closed. not looking forward to see Mrs Naam strutting around later in the day with "i told you so" written all over her face

[flying]

looking forward how my asia-pacific gold mines will do today

Mrs Naam strutting around later in the day with "i told you so" written all over her face

So you have re-entered with other miners...other than the 1818

Would love to see a picture of that.

[Naam]

So you have re-entered with other miners...other than the 1818

realised profit by selling 1818.hk and bought a little later 246.hk and NCM:au

should have kept 1818 too

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=246:HK

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=NCM:AU

[churchill]

The language of the gold bulls reminds me somewhat of the late stages of the tech bubble! If i had any gold in my teeth (sadly i dont) i would remove it and sell it now. but there we are,just my opinion.

I do remember the tech bubble & had fun but while this is exciting at times .....what hasn't been exciting in the markets since the crisis?

I have said before & will again that I do not feel this is a bubble at all.

All it is reflecting at this time is the descent of the dollar.

Here is the decade past for the dollar...

Someday there may be a gold bubble but, that day will be after all the funds & their brothers pile into gold.

So far they are only giving it a cursory glance .

Also my guess is that like the recent silver manipulation discovery the day will come when physical & paper prices are far apart due to eventual lack of trust in all things paper.

All just IMO as usual

'Someday there may be a gold bubble but, that day will be after all the funds & their brothers pile into gold.

So far they are only giving it a cursory glance .'

Totally agree / I am 50/50 invested in Silver/Gold through PM Stocks via ETF'S - gdx , gdxj and sil / PM Stocks are just now breaking out from previous highs when gold was around 1000 , I believe - and have a lot further to go /

The difficult bit is knowing when to exit - and where then to invest to preserve any profits /

[Naam]

Mrs Naam strutting around later in the day with "i told you so" written all over her face

Would love to see a picture of that.

here you go:

[flying]

The difficult bit is knowing when to exit - and where then to invest to preserve any profits /

Yes true usually for stocks

But this is different from my POV

I always ask what was the premise for buying PM's?

In my case I have seen no change so as yet see no reason to exit.