Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Naam]

Chuuuuuuuurchiiiiiilllllll...

[flying]

two days no gold cheerleading news? what is happening?

No weeping or gnashing of teeth either .....Its still all good AFAIK

[churchill]

Chuuuuuuuurchiiiiiilllllll...

No point in posting bearish views in a falling market - and Not a lot of bullishness out there at this time /

but I think we are close to a bounce /

Gold stocks at 200 day ma and have fallen a greater % than gold - Look for them to bounce 1st /

More on Russia -Russia Plans to Buy 100 Tons of Gold a Year .

In 2010 Russia's gold reserve increased 23.9% to 790 tons, or 25.4 million Troy ounces.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703555804576101812228853534.html

Clive Maude is bullish at these levels see Gold and Silver stocks Converging towards a Major Uptrend http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25802.html

and Silver Close to Reversing to the Upside

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25801.html

[crusader79]

Felix Zulauf at the recent Barron's Roundtable (I'll be awaiting his call )

Zulauf: Finally, I have talked about gold many times. Structural trends are in place for a continued rise of public-sector debt in the industrialized countries, a continued monetization of debt and continued debasement of currencies, all of which are bullish long-term for gold. The price of gold has run up to an extreme point, and gold is technically vulnerable to a big shakeout this year, particularly if emerging markets tighten and lift real interest rates. But shakeouts will be followed by higher prices, and would just represent opportunities to buy. Gold could fall to $1,150 or $1,200 from $1,370 now. I would be a buyer at those levels.

How high is the upside?

Zulauf: Unlimited. What [Federal Reserve Chairman Ben] Bernanke is doing [buying up government debt to force down interest rates], others will do. The European Central Bank has tried to resist quantitative easing. It was the one major central bank that tried to sell part of the paper it bought on an emergency basis during the financial crisis. The first time it tried, it triggered the Greek crisis. The second time, it triggered the Irish crisis. Therefore, the ECB has to handle the European situation in a way that the weakest economies in the EU can survive. That forces it into monetary easing for a long time. That is bullish for gold. I don't know how high it can go, but I will give you a call when I think the run-up is over.

Do you like any gold stocks?

Zulauf: I am not a big fan of the stocks. The real costs for gold companies are rising about 15% a year [all costs, including the initial cost of finding it]. I would rather buy the physical stuff. There will be a time when the mining stocks outperform physical gold, but you have to time it.

Faber: How many people in this room have more than 5% of their financial assets -- not their clients' but their own -- in gold? [Hands go up.]

MacAllaster: Ask how many have zero.

Faber: OK, who has zero? [More hands are raised.]

It's about even.

Zulauf: So despite the hoopla, investors don't own a lot of gold. As I mentioned earlier today, the value of the world's gold now represents only 0.6% the market capitalization of global equities, bonds and money-market funds, well below a peak of 3% in 1980. To get back to 3% would require about 65,000 tons of gold, or 20 to 25 years of production.

Cohen: One could argue that a ratio of equity-market capitalization isn't the right way to look at it because there have been so many changes in corporate structure since 1980. For example, 20 years ago the German corporate use of equities was small and the use of public markets wasn't significant, since so much was financed by the banking sector. There have also been large increases in equity capitalization in many emerging markets.

Zulauf: I'm not saying that ratio is the right ratio. I'm just giving you an example of how gold compares to some financial assets. Emerging markets have always debased their currencies, and the same is true for us. Gold traditionally has been the way to store wealth in the developing world, and it has fulfilled its role well. Those who had gold in Indonesia or Brazil or Russia were well off when the currencies collapsed.

[Naam]

two days no gold cheerleading news? what is happening?

No weeping or gnashing of teeth either .....Its still all good AFAIK

i agree! my "favourite" gold mine shares are down 18%... since i sold and now i am watching them like a hawk to get in again that shouldn't take long (perhaps tomorrow?) as Crusader and Churchill are already providing the good news... to come. such as

-Russia to buy 100 tons a year... hallelujah!

-upside unlimited (i am going to ask for the price of that new Learjet model with the extended range)

-investors don't own a lot of gold... (is that good news or bad news?)

-Those who had gold in Indonesia or Brazil or Russia were well off when the currencies collapsed... decades ago

-Clive Maude is bullish at these levels... who the eff is Clive Maude?

-Emerging markets have always debased their currencies... yeah right! look at the Thai Baht which is debased like anything vs. most major currencies

-That is bullish for gold. I don't know how high it can go, but I will give you a call when I think the run-up is over... i wonder whether my phone number is published?

[churchill]

'-Clive Maude is bullish at these levels... who the eff is Clive Maude? '

I agree one of the many - but I think Gold will shoot up when most have thrown in the towl and least expect it- and that Could be in the next few days or not ! /

Obama and the Fed coming - more spending/printing confirmed ?

Edited January 25, 2011 by churchill

[Naam]

I think Gold will shoot up when most have thrown in the towl and least expect it...

quite possible. but what we have to realise is that investing in Gold is not necessarily the one-way street leading only uphill as the hardcore goldbugs have always claimed. personally i really started to like gold. not the bars which -i admit- feel strange but beautiful when one holds them in the hand or not so beautiful when in the pockets and they pull the trousers down. what i like is the paper which one can buy and sell in a few seconds.

physical gold might have its advantages in a real crisis. but didn't we have a real crisis in autumn 2008? what was the gold price doing then? isn't it a fact that those who bought before Lehman during the BearSterns mini crisis in march 2008 lost in the "real" crisis six months later 25% of their capital? never mind that they recovered their losses and sit on nice profits. but most investors of other asset classes who got hurt in 2008 have recovered their losses too and if they had some guts sit on beauti-<deleted>-ful profits which they made in 2009.

yeah, yeah, yeah! the latter is all fiat. but it's the fiat no-good paper which, until this very moment, buys gold in a goldshop! :jap:

[flying]

but I think Gold will shoot up when most have thrown in the towl and least expect it- and that Could be in the next few days or not ! /

Obama and the Fed coming - more spending/printing confirmed ?

Will be interesting to watch if the Comex option expiration for gold and silver tomorrow on the 26th will have any effect on prices.

As for Obama...yes more spending of that which they do not have will be confirmed.

Thomas Jefferson said,

"I place economy among the first and most important virtues and public debt as the greatest of dangers to be feared. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with public debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty or confusion and servitude. If we run into such debts, we must be taxed in our meat and drink, in our necessities and comforts, in our labor and in our amusements. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labor of the people, under the pretense of 'caring for them,' they will be happy."

[lannarebirth]

Thomas Jefferson said,

"I place economy among the first and most important virtues and public debt as the greatest of dangers to be feared. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with public debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty or confusion and servitude. If we run into such debts, we must be taxed in our meat and drink, in our necessities and comforts, in our labor and in our amusements. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labor of the people, under the pretense of 'caring for them,' they will be happy."

At the risk of sounding Amero-centric (if that is a word) , I would have to say that is a nation gifted by its founders and its geography. Seems like it's been going downhill ever since and is driven to cast away all ,its natural advantages..

[flying]

At the risk of sounding Amero-centric (if that is a word) , I would have to say that is a nation gifted by its founders and its geography. Seems like it's been going downhill ever since and is driven to cast away all ,its natural advantages..

Well I agree & it is not hard to understand why it has become so.

The last president to take a stand against all this crap was JFK with exec order 11110 which returned to the US government the power to issue currency without going through the FED Reserve. Remember he issued the silver certificates....4.3 Billion USD backed by silver in the US treasury.

Of course just 5 months later we know what happened to him in Dallas & after he was gone his successor Johnson promptly reversed that exec order after he took office....Restoring the omnipotent power to the privately owned FED Reserve

[churchill]

As Naam mentioned a short time ago rising interest rates are not good for gold and ' what we have to realise is that investing in Gold is not necessarily the one-way street leading only uphill as the hardcore goldbugs have always claimed.' - I don't think we're there yet but worth watching .

Could 2009's gold buyers become 2011's gold sellers? - Nic Brown, Natixis

Nic Brown, head of commodities research at Natixis, believes that gold will come under pressure in 2011 if such selling takes place

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page96985?oid=119205&sn=2010+Detail&pid=102055

The big secret behind gold’s $100 collapse

http://club.ino.com/trading/2011/01/the-big-secret-behind-golds-100-collapse/

[Naam]

just in from my bank @nals (unfortunately in a language which is not allowed in Thaivisa).

gist: consensus was found that Gold will trade @ $1600-1650 within the coming 12 months.

[churchill]

some other views - and the point that the West , the US , Europe and UK will continue to have a loose economic policy for they next year plus ++? - Which should support Gold - and even though markets look ahead i don't think they really believe Trichet , The Bernanke or King /

and also the growing demand in China is going to be a major factor - People are being encouraged to invest in Gold & Silver whilst being discouraged from property and with growing inflation where would they invest /

Gold seen gleaming still brighter in 2011

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/gold-seen-gleaming-still-brighter-in-2011/article1882073/

[churchill]

Biflation - The worst of both worlds ?

'Taken from Wikipedia

Biflation (sometimes mixflation) is a state of the economy where the processes of inflation and deflation occur simultaneously.[1] The term was first introduced by Dr. F. Osborne Brown, a Senior Financial Analyst for the Phoenix Investment Group.[2] During Biflation, there’s a rise in the price of commodity/earnings-based assets (inflation) and a simultaneous fall in the price of debt-based assets (deflation).[3]

The price of all assets are based on the demand for them versus the volume of money in circulation to buy them.

With biflation on the one hand, the economy is fueled by an over-abundance of money injected into the economy by central banks. Since most essential commodity-based assets (food, energy, clothing) remain in high demand, the price for them rises due to the increased volume of money chasing them. The increasing costs to purchase these essential assets is the price-inflationary arm of Biflation.[4]

With biflation on the other hand, the economy is tempered by increasing unemployment and decreasing purchasing power. As a result, a greater amount of money is directed toward buying essential items and directed away from buying non-essential items. Debt-based assets (houses, high-end automobiles and stocks) become less essential and increasingly fall into lower demand. As a result, the prices for them fall due to the decreased volume of money chasing them. The decreasing costs to purchase these non-essential assets is the price-deflationary arm of biflation.'

Painful inflation

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/MA27Dj01.html

[AlexLah]

just in from my bank @nals (unfortunately in a language which is not allowed in Thaivisa).

gist: consensus was found that Gold will trade @ $1600-1650 within the coming 12 months.

Thailand Gold doesn't move much.

ทองคำ 96.5% รับซื้อ ขายออก

ทองคำแท่ง 19550 19650

My model says gold in USD will move down a bit more, indicating 1310-1325 as buying signal.

Just received an insane bonus so I am ready. The truck is parked outside, ready to go and load up a few hundred.

[flying]

American Arrested in Mexico for Carrying 150 Gold Coins; Coins Seized

The Federal Police arrested at the International Airport of Mexico City, U.S. [citizen] Martin Thomas Arnold, 58 years old, who was scheduled to travel to Panama with 150 gold coins in his possession, with a total weight of five kilos 33 grams.

Arnold even had a receipt for some of the coins and it appears there was no legitimate reason for them to be seized, or for him to be arrested.

According to a Sify news report, the gold coins were found in the baggage of a Arnold as he awaited a flight to Panama from the Mexico City airport, officials said.

Arnold appeared visibly nervous' prompting agents to run his suitcase through a scanner, which detected several containers inside, the Mexican Public Safety Secretariat said.

One container held 50 gold coins with the legend 'Suid Afrika-South Africa' on them and two others had 100 coins inside that said 'United States of America'.

The coins weighed a total of more than five kg, the secretariat said.

Though Arnold even showed a receipt that he had with him for the purchase of 50 of the gold coins worth $1,171 each, he was turned over to prosecutors, the secretariat said.

[flying]

COMEX options expire today + FED decision = Lets see where PM's USD price go today

Edited January 26, 2011 by flying

[churchill]

'Gold stocks at 200 day ma and have fallen a greater % than gold - Look for them to bounce 1st /'

Most up 5-6% overnight - Will AlexLah get his buying point - Not sure - Gold going down AGAIN at this time to $1335 or so -Sticking my neck out - I have a feeling this could be the day for a big spike up /

[Chunky1]

I am not a chartist, but the 10 year chart on gold is pretty amazing. With the exception of the 07' decline but then ridiculously fast rally, it has been almost pure sailing upwards. I really think people gotta accept that gold is money and not a commodity. I took a large position in GDXJ after selling CEF a day ago and I am already up 7%.

[Khun Jean]

My take on it is that everything is actually based on oil. And that the oil exporters want gold for their oil.

This translates in more expensive oil measured in dollars but not in gold.

In this graph http://pricedingold.com/crude-oil/ you can see oil and gold are around 2 grams gold for one barrel of oil for a very long time. Excluding some large fluctuations when economies are in turmoil.

Oil and gold getting more expensive is only true when measured against fiat money.

For that reason some of your fiat money should be converted to a commodity, gold being the special one as it is also a currency. Don't be a fiat bug but spread your risks.

Edited January 27, 2011 by Khun Jean

[Naam]

'Gold stocks at 200 day ma and have fallen a greater % than gold - Look for them to bounce 1st /'

Most up 5-6% overnight - Will AlexLah get his buying point - Not sure - Gold going down AGAIN at this time to $1335 or so -Sticking my neck out - I have a feeling this could be the day for a big spike up /

indeed! Gold "spiked up" minus 34 Dollars and trades presently at 1311.70

Edited January 27, 2011 by Naam

[churchill]

'Gold stocks at 200 day ma and have fallen a greater % than gold - Look for them to bounce 1st /'

Most up 5-6% overnight - Will AlexLah get his buying point - Not sure - Gold going down AGAIN at this time to $1335 or so -Sticking my neck out - I have a feeling this could be the day for a big spike up /

indeed! Gold "spiked up" minus 34 Dollars and trades presently at 1311.70

Yes - AlexLah got his Gold at a good price - I hope ! this is nr the bottom - PM stock have held up a bit better

[churchill]

My take on it is that everything is actually based on oil. And that the oil exporters want gold for their oil.

This translates in more expensive oil measured in dollars but not in gold.

In this graph http://pricedingold.com/crude-oil/ you can see oil and gold are around 2 grams gold for one barrel of oil for a very long time. Excluding some large fluctuations when economies are in turmoil.

Oil and gold getting more expensive is only true when measured against fiat money.

For that reason some of your fiat money should be converted to a commodity, gold being the special one as it is also a currency. Don't be a fiat bug but spread your risks.

Keep an eye on the situation in Egypt - Hopefully the situation is not getting out of hand /

Egypt Shuts Down Internet, Blackberry, Text Messages; Mubarak Rival Returns to Egypt; Protests Rattle Yemen; Only Certainty is Uncertainty

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/01/egypt-shuts-down-internet-blackberry.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29&utm_content=Twitter

Will Gold, Silver and Oil Prices Soar on Social Unrest In The Middle East?

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jeb-handwerger/will-gold-silver-and-oil-prices-soar-on-social-unrest-in-the-middle-east

[Naam]

Will Gold, Silver and Oil Prices Soar on Social Unrest In The Middle East?

http://www.financial...the-middle-east

For the past few days I have been warning about a reversal in gold (GLD) and mining stocks (GDX). Could revolution in North Africa and the Middle East be the spark in precious metals and for oil's next leg higher?

could it be that for the past few days my tired old eyes don't see the slightest spark in precious metals, mining stocks and crude oil but exactly the opposite?

[AlexLah]

Will Gold, Silver and Oil Prices Soar on Social Unrest In The Middle East?

http://www.financial...the-middle-east

For the past few days I have been warning about a reversal in gold (GLD) and mining stocks (GDX). Could revolution in North Africa and the Middle East be the spark in precious metals and for oil's next leg higher?

could it be that for the past few days my tired old eyes don't see the slightest spark in precious metals, mining stocks and crude oil but exactly the opposite?

Next time you want to buy some Gold just ask me Naam when the right moment is........

[flying]

Will Gold, Silver and Oil Prices Soar on Social Unrest In The Middle East?

http://www.financial...the-middle-east

For the past few days I have been warning about a reversal in gold (GLD) and mining stocks (GDX). Could revolution in North Africa and the Middle East be the spark in precious metals and for oil's next leg higher?

could it be that for the past few days my tired old eyes don't see the slightest spark in precious metals, mining stocks and crude oil but exactly the opposite?

No you saw correctly.....But....Take another look sometimes things take time to calculate severity.

That aside ....personally I do not think the rises today can all be attributed to the unrest.

[Naam]

Take another look sometimes things take time to calculate severity.

an hour ago i took a look at the ratio shorts/long april gold $ 1250/ounce. the ratio was 16.4 : 1.5

[Naam]

Next time you want to buy some Gold just ask me Naam when the right moment is...

as opposed to some gurus here i have no idea about "right moments" for gold. but since may last year i trade a couple of gold mines (details posted several times in this thread) which react progressively on the ups and downs of gold. presently i have limited my trading to just one stock which i sometimes even trade via naked shorts.

surprisingly i have always found a dumb clothed buyer when i sell what i don't own. but that might turn out more difficult in future because of the recent fluctuations.

[JWJ]

Figures show a majority of money flows into a stock/fund near it's peak and then there is a sell off near the next low.

Just look at this thread..145 pages.... Human nature, herd mentality.

There is too much gold talk these days for me to be buying in.

[AlexLah]

As I said buying signals at 1310 and 1325 (a bit off on the 1325 one but close enough).

Happy trading!