Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Khun Jean]

I was waiting for a plunge in silver but i think it can even go down further because the reason i was expecting was a different one.

QE2 will finish in june and that was my target date, interest rate hikes, dollar rising etc.. What happened in the last few days is that i was on a short holiday and as always the biggest moves happen at those times.

Economically nothing has gotten better so PM's are still a good place to put some money.

Buying the dips is great but who can really time the market that well over a longer time.

My price target for buying more silver was 30US$, but as said it happened for me for the wrong reason so i lowered it to around 20US$.

The gold i have i keep as it is my 'insurance' and having sold 50% of it i am not uncomfortable owning it.

Edited May 5, 2011 by Khun Jean

[flying]

edit: I'm still going to go with 18/oz by the end of the summer.

With words or money?

Get your shorts on if you think so

[flying]

Certainly external "noise" is getting ratcheted up. One wonders if all this recent A Q activity is the culmination of something or if it's an attempt to headoff a "known unknown".

ratcheted up mildly

Here this morning CNBC has not a peep for what is coming may 16th....only pomp & circumstance for the 9/11 memorial/celebration of Osama/Obama deal.

headoff a "known unknown" good description

[jcon]

<---------------------- my cat says, "wow."

AUD/USD short @ 1.06528 11:01pm

XAU/USD shrort @ 1489.430 10:57pm

NO STOPS, NO TARGETS. Speculation at its finest. I can't even think yet, that stuff moved so fast after I said it I was blown away. I just had to put something on. I posted at 9:52pm and within minutes things were moving.

DXY will be fierce.

Silver crushed.

Crude crushed.

Gold is next.

flying, I'd love to short silver but I need a breather and that thing is so volatile frankly it's borderline insane. I will consider it once I get some rest (by then we'll be in a 2-handle.......)

So there: money, meet mouth, mouth meet money. I hope my cat is right.

[RedFxTrade]

I said this a few posts ago but now I'm saying it again - I think something's up.

I feel like we are on the verge of:

1. Fierce Dollar rally

2. Commodity take-down (crude, and yes, GOLD)

DXY? Above 80?

Gold @ 13xx by the end of summer, and like I mentioned above Silver <20 (18)?

Crude, who knows. 80?

USD/JPY I have no idea but we're below 80 again. What would happen to this pair in a huge USD rally?

EUR, AUD taken-down by end of year.

(I see now that's a lot of "80"s...)

I'm sure there are those who disagree (and probably strongly), but that's what I feel and I'm going with my gut on this one. Other opinions welcome. I like to finish (minimize) all of my trades before I go home for the summer, but right now I feel like putting something on. Ideas?

I m long USD. I have been calling for a big rally for a while. See my post above. Timing has been elusive, but the final sign for me is the retail traders threw in the towel on a long Dollar positions, and the hedge funds have reduced their shorts. Three to Six month rally. The fundamentals in Oz are terrible. I m fading the AUD interest rate expectations. The market in my view is mis pricing interest rate expectations across the board. Look at what happened to the Euro today. The next move from the AUD central bank in my view is down. Huge housing bubble, banks over reliant on overseas funding, Oz banks asset side of balance sheet is vulnerable. I m short AUDUSD, built a position over time. Add to that the Chinese economy is an incipient bubble, at least in construction and commercial real estate.

As for ideas, basically long the USD. And when the correction is over, Sugar, Japanese equities, Silver, Gold. I m sure the FED will step in when the market is down. Its been down about 4 days now,,, so QE 3 will be discussed now,Lol. Good luck

[flying]

Silver crushed.

Crude crushed.

Gold is next.

flying, I'd love to short silver but I need a breather and that thing is so volatile frankly it's borderline insane.

So there: money, meet mouth, mouth meet money.

?? your comments are at odd with each other.

Its cool but like Zorro in the stock market thread some here like to state the obvious after its obvious....then later claim they made all kinds of $$$ on it.

Instead I like the ones that say I am going here now.....Then later we can all see how that worked out.

Earlier you said...

"I'm still going to go with 18/oz by the end of the summer"

If you feel that is true go get the $$$ & short the sh!t out of it

Edited May 5, 2011 by flying

[jcon]

Redfxtrade, I think we're on the same page. I'm not sure about sugar, though.

What was your handle before here on TV - I don't think the mods will mind, we kind of have some leeway in this part of the forum.

flying - I don't understand what you mean. First, please don't compare me to zorro!!!!

Look at my post times - I said I feel as if we're on a verge of all of the things I mentioned - gut feeling, and you can see the results for yourself.

I just told you my trades just now, today (AUD/USD short and the XAU/USD short). I'm not coming in 2 weeks from now saying I made the trade at xx and xx and claiming profits. I've said silver will be crushed before it got really crushed. That was not a hard call, look at that chart. You will be able to see if I (my cat) was right or wrong.

If you are referring to the silver trade, well you know that the way it moves can blow you out very quickly, and I don't much like leverage (though I did lever up on the XAU/USD trade). If you want, I will throw 10K USD at a short silver trade, no stops, maybe monday/tues, as a pure speculative short. If she moves way lower between now and then, though - well then it becomes less of an appealing trade. The ''support'' level of 36-ish where people were going to ''back the (Tonka) truck up'' was sliced like a hot knife through butter. If it trades a bit higher around this level, then you bet I will short it with conviction - until 18. You have my word. I don't make stuff up, I have no reason to.

Don't get me wrong, I'm quite upset that I didn't participate in that downward move in silver. I thought about it at 45, but didn't pull the trigger and I'm seriously regretting it. I'm sure you've seen my post history, I never just come up and yap about trades in this or that - but when I feel something (as in last night, and going forward), I will say it. And I'm saying it now.... It's all recorded for all to see in this thread.

I need some zzzzs..... good luck all. That was a spectacular move in silver and it was incredible to witness- minted multi-millionaires in days. Amazing.

[Naam]

Just imagine the volatility when the Navy Seals finally breach Llloyd Blanfein's secret lair and take him out.

no joke is that i don't like what i see. nothing really specific, nothing to pinpoint but a funny gut feeling. increasing cash today by ~14% if/when pending sales orders are executed.

i still have no idea why my guts keep on telling me "sell!" but they were right yesterday and i followed their advice today too.

I wasn't sure if you were talking about Gold or some of your other Bond stuff. If that's the latter then that's a considerable liquidation.

Certainly external "noise" is getting ratcheted up. One wonders if all this recent A Q activity is the culmination of something or if it's an attempt to headoff a "known unknown".

i'm not talking about Gold as we own physical only and except for a moderate quantity not easily accessible. besides... it is Mrs Naam who is in charge of Gold and real estate and who's credo is "we buy, we never sell!"

i was mainly selling cash and bonds denominated in HY-currencies but had a real hard time to select some safe havens. so i evenly distributed the proceeds in USD, EUR and JPY.

[churchill]

As we are talking trades and to go against the grain I just bought GDX, GDXJ and SIL , timing may be wrong but I still think trend -medium term- is up so better to buy on down days than up days

[Naam]

Churchill, Flying;

both of you post quite often links where eggsbirds always have a rational reason and explanation why precious metals (mostly gold) fell due to various conspiracies yesterday but will recover coming monday because the intrinsic value of fiat money/assets is zero.

what are the eggsbirds churning out nowadays?

[churchill]

Tonight's job number is the key short term .

I think it will be worse than expected or not very good and so give the Fed more room to keep a low interest rate policy and start ? to put forward arguments for further QE . so negative USD , positive for PM's /

If the job number is better than expected Gold/Silver may drop further /- but the numbers were worse than expected last night and Gold/Silver fell - So who knows !

[flying]

Churchill, Flying;

both of you post quite often links where eggsbirds always have a rational reason and explanation why precious metals (mostly gold) fell due to various conspiracies yesterday but will recover coming monday because the intrinsic value of fiat money/assets is zero.

what are the eggsbirds churning out nowadays?

Well what I see coincides with what I have read these past few days & also a few days before the drop.

As for recovery Monday I think not & the reason is the same...........

Another margin increase Monday

Making that 5 margin increases in 10 days come Monday. That is what I have read & continue to see as cause for this effect.

I have no problem with it for this reason...

I view it as renters of paper metals being forced to move out as they can no longer afford to purchase more than they can actually afford.

Not that I have ever believed the paper & physical to be the same.

Yes I know spot is based on this paper game but I also always felt that at some point the game will be up & there will be a parting of the ways. I will also add that I never thought it would be painless....initially ....because again the spot is tied to both...for now

spot is tied to physical & fantasy. But at some point it will blow

It will be interesting to see what comes after...& I am not saying I know for sure what that is....but I see a likely conclusion of supply & demand....physical not fantasy

Edited May 6, 2011 by flying

[churchill]

Churchill, Flying;

both of you post quite often links where eggsbirds always have a rational reason and explanation why precious metals (mostly gold) fell due to various conspiracies yesterday but will recover coming monday because the intrinsic value of fiat money/assets is zero.

what are the eggsbirds churning out nowadays?

Well what I see coincides with what I have read these past few days & also a few days before the drop.

As for recovery Monday I think not & the reason is the same...........

Another margin increase Monday

Making that 5 margin increases in 10 days come Monday. That is what I have read & continue to see as cause for this effect.

I have no problem with it for this reason...

I view it as renters of paper metals being forced to move out as they can no longer afford to purchase more than they can actually afford.

Not that I have ever believed the paper & physical to be the same.

Yes I know spot is based on this paper game but I also always felt that at some point the game will be up & there will be a parting of the ways. I will also add that I never thought it would be painless....initially ....because again the spot is tied to both...for now

spot is tied to physical & fantasy. But at some point it will blow

It will be interesting to see what comes after...& I am not saying I know for sure what that is....but I see a likely conclusion of supply & demand....physical not fantasy

I agree Supply and demand in physical not paper -

and demand is still there and will grow -Wall St sells paper - india and China buy physical -

Buyers flock to buy jewellery as gold prices fall

http://profit.ndtv.com/news/show/buyers-flock-to-buy-gold-silver-as-prices-fall-153095?trendingnow

and I agree with this buy gold/silver miners , although I don't follow him /

Time to Go Back In Gold $1,481 Silver $35.75

http://www.grandich.com/2011/05/time-to-go-back-in-gold-1481-silver-35-75/

[Naam]

demand is still there and will grow -Wall St sells paper - india and China buy physical -

Edited May 6, 2011 by Naam

[Naam]

5 margin increases in 10 days come Monday. That is what I have read & continue to see as cause for this effect.

i read that too but i don't believe each and everything i read.

fact: three recent margin increases did not stop AG from rising.

claim: two margin increases by 29% caused a drop of 30%.

conclusion: assuming claim is correct then price increase was nothing than a bubble caused by speculators who lack sound financial resources.

any comments concerning my conclusion?

[dananderson]

I think you hit it on the head Naam. Margin investors got taken to the woodshed, had to abandon positions or pay a much bigger price.

[lannarebirth]

5 margin increases in 10 days come Monday. That is what I have read & continue to see as cause for this effect.

i read that too but i don't believe each and everything i read.

fact: three recent margin increases did not stop AG from rising.

claim: two margin increases by 29% caused a drop of 30%.

conclusion: assuming claim is correct then price increase was nothing than a bubble caused by speculators who lack sound financial resources.

any comments concerning my conclusion?

I'm always amazed at how little "margin" for error most leveraged investors allow for. I use leverage quite a bit but I've seldom ever held a position I couldn't cough up the cash for if need be. Vegas Baby!

[churchill]

demand is still there and will grow -Wall St sells paper - india and China buy physical -

:boring:

Then Tell us why wall st is selling paper and India/China / Max keiser are buying physical

What do you want - bombs , gore ,crap , gaddafi attacked because he was about to insist on gold for oil ..... :rolleyes:

Libya: Another Reason for the War on Libya

http://mathaba.net/news/?x=626630

Edited May 6, 2011 by churchill

[jcon]

5 margin increases in 10 days come Monday. That is what I have read & continue to see as cause for this effect.

i read that too but i don't believe each and everything i read.

fact: three recent margin increases did not stop AG from rising.

claim: two margin increases by 29% caused a drop of 30%.

conclusion: assuming claim is correct then price increase was nothing than a bubble caused by speculators who lack sound financial resources.

any comments concerning my conclusion?

I'm always amazed at how little "margin" for error most leveraged investors allow for. I use leverage quite a bit but I've seldom ever held a position I couldn't cough up the cash for if need be. Vegas Baby!

Lanna, you know how fierce anything parabolic crashes. Leverage ''in-the-froth'' is the killer. That's what people just don't understand, over and over, in every single mania/bubble - I suppose it's the nature of fear and greed. Anybody who has been in the market (any market - and I mean any market - beads, trinkets, jatukarms, cars, stocks, bonds, commodities, the list goes on) will have seen this behaviour over and over.

flying: You really need to look at the larger picture. The silver market is nothing. It's a tiny market, a speck in the finance world. There was a bubble, it was nice. It's over. Really. There will be no ''COMEX default." There will be no lasting disconnect between physical and what you refer to as ''fantasy'' (which ironically, is actually reality). This will turn out as one excellent example of a true ''bag-holder.'' I'm not trying to be demeaning or attack you in any way, I think you're probably a nice guy but you're getting caught up listening/reading the wrong info and that leads to tunnel-vision - a terrible thing to have in the markets.

Of course you are free to do whatever you want with your hard-earned money, but a smart investor is one who can change his mind. Silver has rolled over, period. I believe the USD will shine like a rock star in the near future, hedge according to your beliefs - but don't put too much belief in any given hedge. My 2 cents.

edit: grammar

double edit: I just have to say I really take issue with the argument that ''physical should trade over paper, because paper blah blah blah.'' If anything, holders of physical should be thankful for the leveraged paper, because if there was no ''paper'' and no leverage (or 100% margins, for example), the spot price (and something closer to true price discovery) would be crushed, and the physical would be crushed along with it. Think about it. So the same system for which the physical holders have so much disdain is actually the reason why they are making any profits at all. Without a paper market in silver, for example - we would most likely be somewhere at 7$/oz, and that's as real as it gets.

Edited May 6, 2011 by jcon

[Naam]

India/China / Max keiser are buying physical

[Naam]

I'm always amazed at how little "margin" for error most leveraged investors allow for. I use leverage quite a bit but I've seldom ever held a position I couldn't cough up the cash for if need be. Vegas Baby!

LRB,

assuming you take a regular look at your "daily" mail you have some idea about the group i "belong" to. the hard core of this group consists of three dozen seasoned investors, some of them former bankers and traders. except for a few members of the hard core each and everybody was leveraged when Lehman happened in 2008 and everybody thought "30% leverage is well within my means and acceptable." then in oct/nov the banks panicked and reduced loan values to zero when a bond was trading or bid at 50 or below, id est even if the remaining bid value of a portfolio covered the loan several times the banks issued margin calls and forced selling at ridiculously low prices.

lucky me learned his lesson the hard way during the russian crisis in 1998. since then my policy was "once bitten, twice shy". especially bitter for those of my friends who had to sell was that nearly all assets (with a few exceptions) recovered their value in less than 12 months.

[lannarebirth]

I'm always amazed at how little "margin" for error most leveraged investors allow for. I use leverage quite a bit but I've seldom ever held a position I couldn't cough up the cash for if need be. Vegas Baby!

LRB,

assuming you take a regular look at your "daily" mail you have some idea about the group i "belong" to. the hard core of this group consists of three dozen seasoned investors, some of them former bankers and traders. except for a few members of the hard core each and everybody was leveraged when Lehman happened in 2008 and everybody thought "30% leverage is well within my means and acceptable." then in oct/nov the banks panicked and reduced loan values to zero when a bond was trading or bid at 50 or below, id est even if the remaining bid value of a portfolio covered the loan several times the banks issued margin calls and forced selling at ridiculously low prices.

lucky me learned his lesson the hard way during the russian crisis in 1998. since then my policy was "once bitten, twice shy". especially bitter for those of my friends who had to sell was that nearly all assets (with a few exceptions) recovered their value in less than 12 months.

Yeah, that's a rough one. 30% doesn't seem excessive under almost any circumstance. What a wake up call. And yes I do read what you send along and I'm grateful for it.

One thing about leverage is, you need a really strong sell discipline.

Edited May 6, 2011 by lannarebirth

[jcon]

India/China / Max keiser are buying physical

Agreed, the India/China playbook is totally overused:

Commodities up?

"India/China demand."

Commodities down?

"India/China 'slowdown fears'" or the media darling, "demand-destruction."

Ad infinitum.

As if the entirety of India and China changes direction every few days. Headlines, nothing more. I guess they need to report something, but it sure gets old. I'm sure even the reporters/writers get sick of regurgitating the same shit day after day.

edit: Naam, you mentioned Lehman and leverage..... I wasn't even leveraged during the Lehman debacle, but I was hit so hard it was as if the Brothers Lehman themselves rose from the grave just to kick me in the balls Old dead guys can kick pretty hard. BTW, you send lanna info? Can I get some? I feel left out.

Edited May 6, 2011 by jcon

[midas]

I believe the USD will shine like a rock star in the near future,

WOW that is an interesting and bold statement. I am interested to know why you think that way

and do you mean it will stay shiny long term or will it be a shooting star ? And do you hold that

view even if there was QE 3 and even 4 ?

Today i was reading Marc Fabers report and he said

" We may see dollar strength in coming weeks or months. We may see collapsing prices in stocks and commodities. Eventually, however, the US dollar will break its historical support line and dive even further into oblivion."

[churchill]

I think you hit it on the head Naam. Margin investors got taken to the woodshed, had to abandon positions or pay a much bigger price.

Increased margins work both ways: when the trend reverses, bears will quickly run out of it and need to cover to avoid margin calls.

[jcon]

I believe the USD will shine like a rock star in the near future,

WOW that is an interesting and bold statement. I am interested to know why you think that way

and do you mean it will stay shiny long term or will it be a shooting star ? And do you hold that

view even if there was QE 3 and even 4 ?

Today i was reading Marc Fabers report and he said

" We may see dollar strength in coming weeks or months. We may see collapsing prices in stocks and commodities. Eventually, however, the US dollar will break its historical support line and dive even further into oblivion."

Hi midas,

When I say ''near future'' I mean sometime between now and the end of the summer. There are so many factors I would not be comfortable making any long-term calls. I could see the DXY ripping up to the high-70s. After that, your guess is as good as mine. I don't think we're going to get QEx or QEx+1 just yet - or at least not in a way that we've had it before, as I believe all things must evolve. I generally don't like to fade evolution.

Re: Faber - this is the way I view things:

I see things as a film/tv production. There are actors, and many people choose to focus on what the actors are doing, and spending lots of time talking about the actors. Faber is an actor in this particular analogy of a production. His entrenched position is good for getting attention, but who knows what his actual book looks like. He will play that role as long as it suits him, just as an actor will. There are also, however, directors, line producers, executive producers, studio executives, and investors. The higher up that ladder you go, the more access you have to information/insight. Up there is where the shots are called and the deals are made. To be a successful trader, you need to look beyond the actors - they are just there to entertain, and by design. Everybody is important to make the production successful, but one must look at the larger picture to try and understand the game. Just my 2 cents.

[gregb]

When I say ''near future'' I mean sometime between now and the end of the summer. There are so many factors I would not be comfortable making any long-term calls.

You and I are very different. I guess that is why you trade, and I don't. I would never feel comfortable making any kind of a short term prediction. There are so many factors I would not be comfortable. Long term however, on the order of several decades, the picture is abundantly clear. Energy is depleting, and there is nothing to replace it. Even if we could substitute for oil, it would take a century or more to build the infrastructure. It took about 130 years to get where we are now, and that was with an incredibly dense and relatively benign liquid fuel. Whatever else we could use, it will necessarily be less desirable and more difficult to exploit.

Therefore, it is quite easy to say that in 30 - 50 years, the global economy will have declined by somewhere around half. Could be slightly more if the expected resource wars develop, could be slightly less if we somehow avoid that mess. That means there is no hope for any fiat currency that relies on growth and is based on debt. Which is to say, all of them. They will all have to massively inflate, or collapse. Gold is therefore currently the only safe, long term play, unless you are good at picking stocks that are well suited for depressionary economies.

No, the problem is strictly the short term. It is that place where there are truly so many factors that it is difficult to know what will happen. I can make a good guess at the general features we will see on the way down, but I couldn't begin to tell you the timing.

[Cobalt60]

4065 replies, I am not reading all that, did anyone win the prediction game for record highs, or indeed has anyone worked out where gold has gone ?

[flying]

There will be no lasting disconnect between physical and what you refer to as ''fantasy'' (which ironically, is actually reality). This will turn out as one excellent example of a true ''bag-holder.''

Of course you are free to do whatever you want with your hard-earned money, but a smart investor is one who can change his mind. Silver has rolled over, period. I believe the USD will shine like a rock star in the near future, hedge according to your beliefs - but don't put too much belief in any given hedge. My 2 cents.

double edit: I just have to say I really take issue with the argument that ''physical should trade over paper, because paper blah blah blah.'' If anything, holders of physical should be thankful for the leveraged paper, because if there was no ''paper'' and no leverage (or 100% margins, for example), the spot price (and something closer to true price discovery) would be crushed, and the physical would be crushed along with it. Think about it. So the same system for which the physical holders have so much disdain is actually the reason why they are making any profits at all. Without a paper market in silver, for example - we would most likely be somewhere at 7$/oz, and that's as real as it gets.

You again have me confused with an investor same as you did way back in 08/09?

I did not enter Physical Silver & Gold to trade...who would do that (with physical)?

If I wanted to do that I would trade the paper with the click of a mouse.

What you see as reality I see as controlled paper.

Of course this seems to be part of your employment so I see your attachment to it. No problem

Like I said before go get the $$$...yesterday your Silver 18 by end of summer & today the USD is a rock star....Go Get The Money Jcon

Good luck to you....really I mean that in all honesty no sarcasm

As for the silver rocket up & down......who thought it was a sustainable rise? I said many times here it was silly & again driven for the most part by the fantasy paper. Funny to watch but did I think it normal or sustainable? Of course not.... Did I sell or buy? No

Good Luck to you

Edited May 6, 2011 by flying

[flying]

conclusion: assuming claim is correct then price increase was nothing than a bubble caused by speculators who lack sound financial resources.

any comments concerning my conclusion?

Yes I thought we all knew that this moonshot was unstable?

But that is not to say the whole rise in commodities is/was a bubble anymore than the fall of the USD

Edited May 6, 2011 by flying