Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[flying]

so we have gone from gold fever to doom and gloom?

Nah if you stick around a while you will see from time to time a guy will drop in & say...

Gold sucks...yada,yada,yada You could have done better if you bought XYZ shares..yada,yada,yada....

I just dont see any value in a hunk O metal...yada,yada.... The cirsis is over run!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yet they never say what all has been fixed?

Is the US suddenly on par with their debt? Found the cuts they promised? Need another debt ceiling raise soon?

Is Greece now good to go?

How about the other members of the PIIGS?

That which started folks looking at alternative investments is just as strong to day if not more.

It is election year in the US expect BS to flow like honey.......

Yet those who have been around awhile do fine & are quite happy with the risk/reward ratio

Neither do they cheer lead & tell others how they could have made $$$$ on this or that metal.

[theblether]

so we have gone from gold fever to doom and gloom?

No.......how about just simple reality?

[theblether]

so we have gone from gold fever to doom and gloom?

Nah if you stick around a while you will see from time to time a guy will drop in & say...

Gold sucks...yada,yada,yada You could have done better if you bought XYZ shares..yada,yada,yada....

I just dont see any value in a hunk O metal...yada,yada.... The cirsis is over run!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yet they never say what all has been fixed?

Is the US suddenly on par with their debt? Found the cuts they promised? Need another debt ceiling raise soon?

Is Greece now good to go?

How about the other members of the PIIGS?

That which started folks looking at alternative investments is just as strong to day if not more.

It is election year in the US expect BS to flow like honey.......

Yet those who have been around awhile do fine & are quite happy with the risk/reward ratio

Neither do they cheer lead & tell others how they could have made $$$$ on this or that metal.

You see at the end of the day this thread is all about simple opinions......up? down? stay the same?

It's not rocket science.........

There will always be a so called crisis coming down the line...............in the last few years we have seen some of the most serious crisis imaginable. These crisis resulted in a spike in Gold prices, but even that spike was not on a par with the spike that resulted from the Russian invasion of Afghanistan on Xmas Day 1979, ( adjusted for inflation ).

So don't wave flags for any commodity and don't get emotionally involved

. In my opinion outside of a category one conflict the bull run is over, that does not mean that people cannot still make money from Gold trading, there has been dramatic volatility in the price this year already, but that money will be made by people who are switched on Day traders, ( probably you ). It's price volatility that brings the profit opportunity. ( you know that already, many people don't ).

People thinking that Gold bought today will see it magically crash through the $2000 barrier are more than likely to be disappointed. Many people are already nursing losses and I believe many more will find the same problem coming down the line.

So anyone thinking that Gold is on an inexorable rise is wrong in my opinion, so I have stated my prediction for this year and the next two years.......let's see yours, and how about the rest of the regular contributors to this thread doing the same.

No prizes, no condemnation, it will be interesting to see the breadth of opinion and to revisit it later this year to see who was right this year.

[theblether]

and your prediction for 2012? 2013? 2014? a rise then fall in 2015???

I'm quite confident it will go up or down by any amount.

Perhaps this thread should be retitled where has gold been in this market, as after 250 pages no one knows where it is going, that's for sure.

Well if you look at a 10 year graph you may have a pretty good hypothesis

You know, that kind of post and that kind of graph are terrifying, anyone using that graph as an indicator of future performance is a nutter.

Please, please ignore it. All that graph tells you is the past performance........it does not tell you why Gold has performed in that way in the last 10 years.

In the interest of intellectual honesty, flying should now post the graph for the 10 years previous to that graph.

Here lies the danger of "internet experts"..........

While your at it flying, please impress us all by showing us proof of your Gold trades at $270.

I think there is a touch of wise after the event going on here......

[pauljones]

1975-2012

[udonguy]

1975-2012

i must say that 10 year jump makes me nervous - if only I could turn the clock back! I'd be very rich indeed - it's interesting that other crises have come and gone but not a flicker in the gold market. For 20 years boredom then BOOMdom - but what about the drop? yikes!!! but I think there is more push before the collapse

[pauljones]

The party is over I bet.

What's the next big thing?

[churchill]

Those that bet the party is over may miss the best part ...

True any bull run is about confidence and trying to stay at the head rather than the tail of the herd

http://goldchat.blogspot.com/2012/02/martin-armstrong-on-metals-manipulation.html

but the situation in Europe is certainly not going to be fixed without lots more QE as in the UK and probably in the US and China

http://forexbillion.com/2012/02/groundhog-week/

and the situation in Greece is not getting any easier through the bickering and blaming of politicians in Germany/Greece and the EU

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/02/violent-protests-in-greece-6-cabinet.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-10/greece-s-use-of-debt-writedown-would-equal-a-selective-default-s-p-says.html

Not forgetting the Middle East

http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2012/Feb/10/Time-to-review-your-oil---gold-exposure--Stockhous

[churchill]

1975-2012

i must say that 10 year jump makes me nervous - if only I could turn the clock back! I'd be very rich indeed - it's interesting that other crises have come and gone but not a flicker in the gold market. For 20 years boredom then BOOMdom - but what about the drop? yikes!!! but I think there is more push before the collapse

see http://chart.ly/u4kexx6

and http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wagner/feb102012.html

Edited February 11, 2012 by churchill

[flying]

You know, that kind of post and that kind of graph are terrifying, anyone using that graph as an indicator of future performance is a nutter.

Please, please ignore it. All that graph tells you is the past performance........it does not tell you why Gold has performed in that way in the last 10 years.

In the interest of intellectual honesty, flying should now post the graph for the 10 years previous to that graph.

Here lies the danger of "internet experts"..........

While your at it flying, please impress us all by showing us proof of your Gold trades at $270.

I think there is a touch of wise after the event going on here......

Come now Blather what is it you want?

I do not cheer lead & if you read this thread from the start you can see that.

Of course none can predict & I have always said none should tell others to buy or sell.

I always have said folks should have their OWN premise

Why is that 10 year chart not good for you? Yes everyone knows about the 80's

so what? The ten year chart shows $350 an ounce eh? Look at the one that goes back 35-40 years

what does it show as a low? $200. Folks who use charts dont use charts of years in the first place.

I posted it in response to a silly question. I do not use charts at all myself.

..........Again none has told you buy

Why do folks like you feel the need to even post or question anyone's decisions?

You offer a guarantee?

Trades at $270? Sorry dont have any......Does it matter to you?

If it does read back in this thread most of mine are there...Not trades though ..purchases & swaps

Only one self proclaimed internet expert here & that is the one yelling RUN!!!!

Best to not cheer either direction unless you want to take responsibility for folks losses.

Edited February 11, 2012 by flying

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Date: February 9, 2012

Reporting From: Santiago, Chile After more than a decade of year-over-year appreciation, many people are wondering if gold is just another bubble waiting to burst. No commodity or asset class in our historical record has ever shown such long-term growth, and consequently the "B-word" is being tossed around regularly in financial media.

But is that all a bubble is-- simply meteoric growth, seemingly with no end in sight? If so, let's examine some other 'bubbles' in our society.

1) Number of people renouncing US citizenship: Four years of exponential growth. [source: Bloomberg / IRS]

2008: 146

2009: 742

2010: 1534

2011: 2048 (estimate)

2) Number of Facebook users: Eight years of viral growth. [source: Facebook]

August 26, 2008: 100 million

April 8, 2009: 200 million

September 15, 2009: 300 million

February 5, 2010: 400 million

July 21, 2010: 500 million

January 5, 2011: 600 million

May 30, 2011: 700 million

September 22, 2011: 800 million

February 4, 2012: 845 million

3) Number of Americans on Foodstamps: A disturbing, tragic long-term growth trend. [source: USDA's Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program]

2007: 26.3 million

2008: 28.2 million

2009: 33.5 million

2010: 40.3 million

2011: 44.7 million

4) Number of FBI/NICS background checks to obtain a firearm in the United States: Eight years of consistent growth. And baby, we ain't seen nothin' yet. [source: FBI]

2004: 8.69 million

2005: 8.95 million

2006: 10.04 million

2007: 11.18 million

2008: 12.70 million

2009: 14.03 million

2010: 14.41 million

2011: 16.45 million

5) Number of requests the US government made for Google user data: 4 straight reporting periods of astounding growth. [source: Google]

6-months ending 12/31/2009: 3,580

6-months ending 6/30/2010: 4,287

6-months ending 12/31/2010: 4,601

6-months ending 6/30/2011: 5,950

6) US federal government budget outlays: a never-ending growth trend of out-of-control spending. [source: CBO, OMB]

2000 budget: $1.9 trillion

2001 budget: $2.0 trillion

2002 budget: $2.2 trillion

2003 budget: $2.2 trillion

2004 budget: $2.3 trillion

2005 budget: $2.4 trillion

2006 budget: $2.7 trillion

2007 budget: $2.8 trillion

2008 budget: $2.9 trillion

2009 budget: $3.1 trillion

2010 budget: $3.6 trillion

2011 budget: $3.8 trillion

7) And last but not least, US monetary base as of January 1st each year [source: St. Louis Fed]

2001: $ 616.7 billion

2002: $ 673.7 billion

2003: $ 719.6 billion

2004: $ 756.8 billion

2005: $ 793.8 billion

2006: $ 825.2 billion

2007: $ 843.5 billion

2008: $ 851.4 billion

2009: $1,730.2 billion

2010: $2,010.1 billion

2011: $2,057.1 billion

2012: $2,647.7 billion

Ultimately, a bubble isn't something whose price keeps going up. It's something that is steadily expanding, supported by nothing but hot air.

The exponential growth in Facebook users (or other digital platforms like Skype, Angry Birds, etc.) is underpinned by perceived value... not hot air. The growth in FBI background checks and firearm sales is underpinned by legitimate consumer demand, not phony speculation.

The growth rates in US citizenship renunciants and US government Google user requests are equally underpinned by a legitimate (though unfortunate) trend of declining liberty. This is certainly not hot air.

The value of gold is as an anti-currency-- a rejection of the fiat system in favor of something more tangible that cannot be conjured out of thin air. This is not a bubble. It's a simple causality. And as long as the trends in #6 and #7 above hold, a continued rise in the gold price is supported.

Simon Black

Senior Editor, SovereignMan.com

Edited February 11, 2012 by BEENTHEREDONETHAT

[theblether]

You know, that kind of post and that kind of graph are terrifying, anyone using that graph as an indicator of future performance is a nutter.

Please, please ignore it. All that graph tells you is the past performance........it does not tell you why Gold has performed in that way in the last 10 years.

In the interest of intellectual honesty, flying should now post the graph for the 10 years previous to that graph.

Here lies the danger of "internet experts"..........

While your at it flying, please impress us all by showing us proof of your Gold trades at $270.

I think there is a touch of wise after the event going on here......

Come now Blather what is it you want?

I do not cheer lead & if you read this thread from the start you can see that.

Of course none can predict & I have always said none should tell others to buy or sell.

I always have said folks should have their OWN premise

Why is that 10 year chart not good for you? Yes everyone knows about the 80's

so what? The ten year chart shows $350 an ounce eh? Look at the one that goes back 35-40 years

what does it show as a low? $200. Folks who use charts dont use charts of years in the first place.

I posted it in response to a silly question. I do not use charts at all myself.

..........Again none has told you buy

Why do folks like you feel the need to even post or question anyone's decisions?

You offer a guarantee?

Trades at $270? Sorry dont have any......Does it matter to you?

If it does read back in this thread most of mine are there...Not trades though ..purchases & swaps

Only one self proclaimed internet expert here & that is the one yelling RUN!!!!

Best to not cheer either direction unless you want to take responsibility for folks losses.

I can read perfectly well sir......your post that included that 10 year chart was a call to arms indicating the only way is up.......now your getting all itchy when I point out that during the 10 year period preceding that chart Gold was a stagnant investment.

So next time you post a chart ( and post ) like that try to mollify it a little bit huh?

i would suggest that your call to action is more likely to encourage potential losses than my call for caution.

[theblether]

Date: February 9, 2012

Reporting From: Santiago, Chile After more than a decade of year-over-year appreciation, many people are wondering if gold is just another bubble waiting to burst. No commodity or asset class in our historical record has ever shown such long-term growth, and consequently the "B-word" is being tossed around regularly in financial media.

But is that all a bubble is-- simply meteoric growth, seemingly with no end in sight? If so, let's examine some other 'bubbles' in our society.

1) Number of people renouncing US citizenship: Four years of exponential growth. [source: Bloomberg / IRS]

2008: 146

2009: 742

2010: 1534

2011: 2048 (estimate)

2) Number of Facebook users: Eight years of viral growth. [source: Facebook]

August 26, 2008: 100 million

April 8, 2009: 200 million

September 15, 2009: 300 million

February 5, 2010: 400 million

July 21, 2010: 500 million

January 5, 2011: 600 million

May 30, 2011: 700 million

September 22, 2011: 800 million

February 4, 2012: 845 million

3) Number of Americans on Foodstamps: A disturbing, tragic long-term growth trend. [source: USDA's Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program]

2007: 26.3 million

2008: 28.2 million

2009: 33.5 million

2010: 40.3 million

2011: 44.7 million

4) Number of FBI/NICS background checks to obtain a firearm in the United States: Eight years of consistent growth. And baby, we ain't seen nothin' yet. [source: FBI]

2004: 8.69 million

2005: 8.95 million

2006: 10.04 million

2007: 11.18 million

2008: 12.70 million

2009: 14.03 million

2010: 14.41 million

2011: 16.45 million

5) Number of requests the US government made for Google user data: 4 straight reporting periods of astounding growth. [source: Google]

6-months ending 12/31/2009: 3,580

6-months ending 6/30/2010: 4,287

6-months ending 12/31/2010: 4,601

6-months ending 6/30/2011: 5,950

6) US federal government budget outlays: a never-ending growth trend of out-of-control spending. [source: CBO, OMB]

2000 budget: $1.9 trillion

2001 budget: $2.0 trillion

2002 budget: $2.2 trillion

2003 budget: $2.2 trillion

2004 budget: $2.3 trillion

2005 budget: $2.4 trillion

2006 budget: $2.7 trillion

2007 budget: $2.8 trillion

2008 budget: $2.9 trillion

2009 budget: $3.1 trillion

2010 budget: $3.6 trillion

2011 budget: $3.8 trillion

7) And last but not least, US monetary base as of January 1st each year [source: St. Louis Fed]

2001: $ 616.7 billion

2002: $ 673.7 billion

2003: $ 719.6 billion

2004: $ 756.8 billion

2005: $ 793.8 billion

2006: $ 825.2 billion

2007: $ 843.5 billion

2008: $ 851.4 billion

2009: $1,730.2 billion

2010: $2,010.1 billion

2011: $2,057.1 billion

2012: $2,647.7 billion

Ultimately, a bubble isn't something whose price keeps going up. It's something that is steadily expanding, supported by nothing but hot air.

The exponential growth in Facebook users (or other digital platforms like Skype, Angry Birds, etc.) is underpinned by perceived value... not hot air. The growth in FBI background checks and firearm sales is underpinned by legitimate consumer demand, not phony speculation.

The growth rates in US citizenship renunciants and US government Google user requests are equally underpinned by a legitimate (though unfortunate) trend of declining liberty. This is certainly not hot air.

The value of gold is as an anti-currency-- a rejection of the fiat system in favor of something more tangible that cannot be conjured out of thin air. This is not a bubble. It's a simple causality. And as long as the trends in #6 and #7 above hold, a continued rise in the gold price is supported.

Simon Black

Senior Editor, SovereignMan.com

Really? Would you like to tell the assembled company the reason why the US was downgraded last year?

[theblether]

Those that bet the party is over may miss the best part ...

True any bull run is about confidence and trying to stay at the head rather than the tail of the herd

http://goldchat.blog...nipulation.html

but the situation in Europe is certainly not going to be fixed without lots more QE as in the UK and probably in the US and China

http://forexbillion....groundhog-week/

and the situation in Greece is not getting any easier through the bickering and blaming of politicians in Germany/Greece and the EU

http://globaleconomi...-6-cabinet.html

http://www.bloomberg...t-s-p-says.html

Not forgetting the Middle East

http://www.stockhous...sure--Stockhous

Great........what is your prediction?

[flying]

i would suggest that your call to action is more likely to encourage potential losses than my call for caution.

Duly noted & we thank you for your call?

We have been here 3+ years not calling anyone & it is there for you to see....If you choose to read

Only you are asking folks for predictions...Sorry none here have any ...

Many here have reasons they chose to diversify....But they do not claim to predict nor force you to.

Edited February 11, 2012 by flying

[pauljones]

Could go up.

Could go down.

At least that's what the previous 6247 posts indicate.

[churchill]

Those that bet the party is over may miss the best part ...

True any bull run is about confidence and trying to stay at the head rather than the tail of the herd

http://goldchat.blog...nipulation.html

but the situation in Europe is certainly not going to be fixed without lots more QE as in the UK and probably in the US and China

http://forexbillion....groundhog-week/

and the situation in Greece is not getting any easier through the bickering and blaming of politicians in Germany/Greece and the EU

http://globaleconomi...-6-cabinet.html

http://www.bloomberg...t-s-p-says.html

Not forgetting the Middle East

http://www.stockhous...sure--Stockhous

Great........what is your prediction?

My prediction .... until we can see some light between the trees the price of Gold will be trending higher ..

and I don't see many easy solutions yet ...

perhaps in about 2 years

Edited February 12, 2012 by churchill

[udonguy]

Those that bet the party is over may miss the best part ...

True any bull run is about confidence and trying to stay at the head rather than the tail of the herd

http://goldchat.blog...nipulation.html

but the situation in Europe is certainly not going to be fixed without lots more QE as in the UK and probably in the US and China

http://forexbillion....groundhog-week/

and the situation in Greece is not getting any easier through the bickering and blaming of politicians in Germany/Greece and the EU

http://globaleconomi...-6-cabinet.html

http://www.bloomberg...t-s-p-says.html

Not forgetting the Middle East

http://www.stockhous...sure--Stockhous

Great........what is your prediction?

My prediction .... until we can see some light between the trees the price of Gold will be trending higher ..

and I don't see many easy solutions yet ...

perhaps in about 2 years

care to put any numbers to that? I am mindful that silver went to 43 then down to 28 and never really recovered and is stuck at 33/34

[churchill]

Silver is up about 20% in the last six weeks .. I wouldn't call that stuck ..

Re.. Gold , many follow the 144mda which would put Gold over $1900 by the end of the year ..

http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economic-indicators/gold-indicators/11-gold-144-day-dma-00011

[Naam]

many follow the 144mda which would put Gold

many others follow many "learned gurus" who put gold at 5,000 / 10,000 / 28,000 and in terms of "fiat" at an infinitely high value.

by the way, many generations of flies and various other insects (trillions of them for billions of generations) put shit in the upper class of delicacies. but not every other creature agrees

[Naam]

The party is over I bet.

What's the next big thing?

viagra?

[udonguy]

Silver is up about 20% in the last six weeks .. I wouldn't call that stuck ..

Re.. Gold , many follow the 144mda which would put Gold over $1900 by the end of the year ..

http://www.moneyweek...4-day-dma-00011

you missed the point about being at 43 recently - and getting nowhere near that since the 'fall' - for that matter gold too! we all get excited but it was 1850 at one stage so all those that keep saying 'resistance at 1750' forget it broke through then fell

[churchill]

many follow the 144mda which would put Gold

many others follow many "learned gurus" who put gold at 5,000 / 10,000 / 28,000 and in terms of "fiat" at an infinitely high value. by the way, many generations of flies and various other insects (trillions of them for billions of generations) put shit in the upper class of delicacies. but not every other creature agrees

As I said "stay at the head rather than the tail of the herd '

[Naam]

many follow the 144mda which would put Gold

many others follow many "learned gurus" who put gold at 5,000 / 10,000 / 28,000 and in terms of "fiat" at an infinitely high value. by the way, many generations of flies and various other insects (trillions of them for billions of generations) put shit in the upper class of delicacies. but not every other creature agrees

As I said "stay at the head rather than the tail of the herd '

to be there before the flies?

[churchill]

Silver is up about 20% in the last six weeks .. I wouldn't call that stuck ..

Re.. Gold , many follow the 144mda which would put Gold over $1900 by the end of the year ..

http://www.moneyweek...4-day-dma-00011

you missed the point about being at 43 recently - and getting nowhere near that since the 'fall' - for that matter gold too! we all get excited but it was 1850 at one stage so all those that keep saying 'resistance at 1750' forget it broke through then fell

Charts and Chartists certainly have a lot of influence on price movements .There always seems to be a next level that is make or break with a potential big up or down move .. but one has to look at the overall macro picture as well ...

Some are saying we are on the verge of a major leg up but not before we have had another big leg down .. Nobody really knows...

One has to weigh the odds and place ones bets ...

Edited February 12, 2012 by churchill

[churchill]

many follow the 144mda which would put Gold

many others follow many "learned gurus" who put gold at 5,000 / 10,000 / 28,000 and in terms of "fiat" at an infinitely high value. by the way, many generations of flies and various other insects (trillions of them for billions of generations) put shit in the upper class of delicacies. but not every other creature agrees

As I said "stay at the head rather than the tail of the herd '

to be there before the flies?

ask this lot and you may get the right answer !!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2095335/Underground-ant-city-Brazil-rivals-Great-Wall-China-labyrinth-highways.html

[udonguy]

Silver is up about 20% in the last six weeks .. I wouldn't call that stuck ..

Re.. Gold , many follow the 144mda which would put Gold over $1900 by the end of the year ..

http://www.moneyweek...4-day-dma-00011

you missed the point about being at 43 recently - and getting nowhere near that since the 'fall' - for that matter gold too! we all get excited but it was 1850 at one stage so all those that keep saying 'resistance at 1750' forget it broke through then fell

Charts and Chartists certainly have a lot of influence on price movements .There always seems to be a next level that is make or break with a potential big up or down move .. but one has to look at the overall macro picture as well ...

Some are saying we are on the verge of a major leg up but not before we have had another big leg down .. Nobody really knows...

One has to weigh the odds and place ones bets ...

sometimes I wish I could go away and not look for 6 months - but it verges on the obsessive this PM malarkey

[theblether]

Could go up.

Could go down.

At least that's what the previous 6247 posts indicate.

I think that should be the last word on this topic

[Naam]

ask this lot and you may get the right answer !!

http://www.dailymail...h-highways.html

you think i'd waste even one second of my time reading any rubbish the "daily mail" prints?

[udonguy]

ask this lot and you may get the right answer !!

http://www.dailymail...h-highways.html

you think i'd waste even one second of my time reading any rubbish the "daily mail" prints?

on that we concur - waste of paper