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Where Is Gold Going In This Market

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sokal Gold Member

sokal

Posted
Posted
Col. Namm, there is no point trying to tame the wild fever of Gold bugs now that its the 'final' bubble of our time, having only just broken to a new high, whilst other assets' bubbles have broken and collapsed already, within the last 10yrs.

Gold is devoid of practical use. Its role in financial markets is levered up against physical to such an extent it could only possibly end up one way.

As with owners of Tulips in the 17thC, stockholders of the South Sea company in the 18thC, Railways in the 19thC and Japanese, Real Estate or Dot-Com in the 20thC, theres no reasoning with the holders of any mania, infact to do so is an admission of plain faced ignorance, apparently.

Yet every bubble pops, and it should be fitting that as testimony to the largest financial collapse, amidst the largest economic crisis, the world has ever seen, the 'old worlds' favourite 'store of wealth' should be the final bubble to pop.

Its human nature, fallible and flawed :D

You did not lose any purchasing power of your money by not participating in all the bubbles you mentioned above.

Bernanke is creating a bubble in fiat money, that is the bubble and when that fiat bubble bursts you get hyperinflation. You are in the bubble without even knowing it.

Poor sheeple, just when they thought they had this bubble thing figured out :):D

Theres a certain irony in your response :D

However, you've tried that arguement before Sokal.

Unfortunately, there isnt any inflation, let alone hyperinflation.

Sadly we'll have to wait a while to conclude this.

Regards,

John Law :D

$1120 gold and a 50% rise in the Australian dollar is inflation.

badge Silver Member

badge

Posted
Posted
$1120 gold and a 50% rise in the Australian dollar is inflation.

No, they're treasury instrument price movements.

Your mistakenly jumping from one huge assumption(there'll be hyperinflation), to another(Gold and AUD up = inflation).

US inflation is negative.

Financial market oscillations unfortunately dont constitute economic fact.

As mentioned before, we will have to wait for US CPI to reach 2% before its worth considering any real inflation dreams. :)

sokal Gold Member

sokal

Posted
Posted
$1120 gold and a 50% rise in the Australian dollar is inflation.

No, they're treasury instrument price movements.

Your mistakenly jumping from one huge assumption(there'll be hyperinflation), to another(Gold and AUD up = inflation).

US inflation is negative.

Financial market oscillations unfortunately dont constitute economic fact.

As mentioned before, we will have to wait for US CPI to reach 2% before its worth considering any real inflation dreams. :)

Money velocity is a myth.

The Icelandic króna had declined more than 35% against the euro from January to September 2008.[8] Inflation of consumer prices was running at 14%,[

Iceland's GDP is expected to shrink by as much as 10% as a result of the crisis, putting Iceland by some measures in an economic depression.[143] Inflation may climb as high as 75% by the end of the year.[1

badge Silver Member

badge

Posted
Posted

Sokal, your reasoning gets more and more innocuous.

Your previous(unnecessary) suggestion that Golds rise is proof of Inflation, in erroneous.

Lets measure Inflation the old fashioned way; prices for goods and services.

When your Hyperinflation shows up in the US or EU(places that matter), we can see who was closer. :)

Even without Inflation Gold can continue to rise.

It has had tenuous link with Inflation in the past, I dont see why that should end now.

jazzbo Platinum Member

jazzbo

Posted
Posted

Bottom line for many is the price of gold rises when the people begin losing faith in their government's ability to manage their country's economy in a stable manner. As in..

Why Gold Owners Are Targets of the Government by Gary North

If you own gold, you are in a war. You are under assault. You had better figure this out early.
There is a full-scale war against you.
The politicians and central bankers who are conducting this war against you are determined to see that you lose money on your investment.

The reason why
you are under assault
is because you have demonstrated by your purchase of gold or a gold-related investment that you do not trust the monetary policies of your nation's central bank. If you are an American, this means you do not trust the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve System. You have taken a step that confirms your lack of trust in the government and its central bank. If you think the government and the central bank will sit quietly, while millions of citizens buy gold as a way to hedge against government and central bank policies, you are terminally naive.

... and you guys have chosen to fight the Full-Scale War on the Plains of ThaiVisa.com -- kinda like George Bailey fighting the Battle of Bedford Falls in It's a Wonderful Life ...Paper drives... Rubber drives... and Air Raid Drills (keep those blinds drawn)

So the Battle of ThaiVisa, at the heart of the Front Line against the Faithless Insane KaoJai Mai-less Government, rages on. Croix de GaryN for all.

jazzbo Platinum Member

jazzbo

Posted
Posted

... and it seems that some of these guys are fighting the Battle of Plains of ThaiVisa.com when they are not even in Thailand. Oh well, I guess you take on the terminally naive wherever you find them.

sokal Gold Member

sokal

Posted
Posted
not closed is the case that the target for me buying gold is getting closer and closer inspite of a "stable" USD

How many of those stable USD do you hold? I think your target is calling :)

11/12/2009 1120.50

standard practice is when my wife and me are travelling each of us carries 2,000 dollars and 2,000 euros in cash. i also still maintain a bank account in the Greatest Nation on Earth™ with a balance of approximately 2 or perhaps 3k. these are all the dollars i hold presently. only a couple years ago USD share was >65% of my portfolio but i was getting tired doing continously forward trades selling $ vs. € as a hedge even though it paid handsomely.

i am very much tempted to have USD denominated assets again because there is no other currency which provides that huge range of investment possibilities. but you are right, my gold buying target is indeed not too far away and i will bite the bullet if and when the time has come.

Those investment possibilities are slowly turning into investment impossibilities but that does not make those dollars go away.

sokal Gold Member

sokal

Posted
Posted
Sokal, your reasoning gets more and more innocuous.

Your previous(unnecessary) suggestion that Golds rise is proof of Inflation, in erroneous.

Lets measure Inflation the old fashioned way; prices for goods and services.

When your Hyperinflation shows up in the US or EU(places that matter), we can see who was closer. :D

Even without Inflation Gold can continue to rise.

It has had tenuous link with Inflation in the past, I dont see why that should end now.

So that is your excuse to my facts ? Places that matter ??? :D:)

Naam Star Member

Naam

Posted
Posted
not closed is the case that the target for me buying gold is getting closer and closer inspite of a "stable" USD

How many of those stable USD do you hold? I think your target is calling :D

11/12/2009 1120.50

standard practice is when my wife and me are travelling each of us carries 2,000 dollars and 2,000 euros in cash. i also still maintain a bank account in the Greatest Nation on Earth™ with a balance of approximately 2 or perhaps 3k. these are all the dollars i hold presently. only a couple years ago USD share was >65% of my portfolio but i was getting tired doing continously forward trades selling $ vs. € as a hedge even though it paid handsomely.

i am very much tempted to have USD denominated assets again because there is no other currency which provides that huge range of investment possibilities. but you are right, my gold buying target is indeed not too far away and i will bite the bullet if and when the time has come.

Those investment possibilities are slowly turning into investment impossibilities but that does not make those dollars go away.

Sokal, when will you learn that poor little young canadian boys like you should refrain from commenting when grown-ups discuss things? :)

flying Ruby Member

flying

Posted
Posted
my gold buying target is indeed not too far away and i will bite the bullet if and when the time has come.

May be getting close to the time to AU re-tile the pool eh?

I think the AG grout will look good too while it is on sale cheap :)

11/15/09

Gold $1130

Silver $17.70

Abrak Gold Member

Abrak

Posted
Posted
my gold buying target is indeed not too far away and i will bite the bullet if and when the time has come.

May be getting close to the time to AU re-tile the pool eh?

I think the AG grout will look good too while it is on sale cheap :)

Gold $1127.60

Silver $17.70

Yeah silver has underperformed 10% over the last six weeks.

If you take a view that gold is in a bull run that might go parabolic sending it to say US$2000/oz in six months, then it is worth considering silver. It tends to be a high beta play on gold. Hedge funds are also much more likely to ramp it than gold. You can see what happened last time around.

Zeal102607F.gif

BTW, Flying, if you want a theory as to what might have caused the outperformance followed by underperformance of silver it is this. PM investors prefered silver while the saw growth was going negative to positive because of the underlying industrial demand. Now perhaps people are worried about growth going positive to negative. Its underperformance sort of coincided with 3q GDP growth announcement. (I fully accept this could be total <deleted>.)

flying Ruby Member

flying

Posted
Posted
Yeah silver has underperformed 10% over the last six weeks.

If you take a view that gold is in a bull run that might go parabolic sending it to say US$2000/oz in six months, then it is worth considering silver. It tends to be a high beta play on gold. Hedge funds are also much more likely to ramp it than gold. You can see what happened last time around.

BTW, Flying, if you want a theory as to what might have caused the outperformance followed by underperformance of silver it is this. PM investors prefered silver while the saw growth was going negative to positive because of the underlying industrial demand. Now perhaps people are worried about growth going positive to negative. Its underperformance sort of coincided with 3q GDP growth announcement. (I fully accept this could be total <deleted>.)

Yes I must say Silver has me scratching my head a bit.

But I am fortunate that I got in at 9.45 & have no thoughts on selling either AU or AG at least I have seen no reason shown to me to do so.

But I have also always thought as you do that in the long run Silver will out perform.

Personally I do not think 2k in 6 month for gold is likely but then again I guess anything is possible. I tend to think if it can close above 1135 in the US then we may see the next level of 12-1300

I expect a pullback soon but I do not see the type of pullback many waiting to buy are hoping for.

Naam Star Member

Naam

Posted
Posted
my gold buying target is indeed not too far away and i will bite the bullet if and when the time has come.

May be getting close to the time to AU re-tile the pool eh?

that's one of my problems Flying. the Mrs. has a nice stash of bullion in a bank locker in her home country and recently confessed that she was adding over the years continously to it. personally i share your view "you don't own it if you can't lay your hand on it" but unfortunately Thailand is not the country where one keeps substantial amounts of gold or cash in the house :)

flying Ruby Member

flying

Posted
Posted
that's one of my problems Flying. the Mrs. has a nice stash of bullion in a bank locker in her home country and recently confessed that she was adding over the years continuously to it. personally i share your view "you don't own it if you can't lay your hand on it" but unfortunately Thailand is not the country where one keeps substantial amounts of gold or cash in the house :)

Well I bet there are a few rich Chinese/Thai's with a good hiding spot :D

But I have to agree that like you I would be a bit nervous too holding large in Thailand.

Then again I can hide stuff like you wouldn't believe. :D

Good on your Mrs. to be adding to the stash. Sounds like she is a keeper & I know you have said so. Congrats

Abrak Gold Member

Abrak

Posted
Posted
Yes I must say Silver has me scratching my head a bit.

But I am fortunate that I got in at 9.45 & have no thoughts on selling either AU or AG at least I have seen no reason shown to me to do so.

But I have also always thought as you do that in the long run Silver will out perform.

Personally I do not think 2k in 6 month for gold is likely but then again I guess anything is possible. I tend to think if it can close above 1135 in the US then we may see the next level of 12-1300

I expect a pullback soon but I do not see the type of pullback many waiting to buy are hoping for.

Well 'they say' a gold movement not matched by silver usually is false but who knows.

My main point is that if there is some parabolic move in gold at some point, some time, you shouldnt miss out in silver. Also there just seems a classic ramp in silver. Move the price to US$35 in order to push up the value of gold.

flying Ruby Member

flying

Posted
Posted
Well 'they say' a gold movement not matched by silver usually is false but who knows.

My main point is that if there is some parabolic move in gold at some point, some time, you shouldnt miss out in silver. Also there just seems a classic ramp in silver. Move the price to US$35 in order to push up the value of gold.

Well I would be happy with that.

I will not miss out on Silver as I am very well weighted in it.

I think silver will do well from Dec onwards. But we will see.

Naam Star Member

Naam

Posted
Posted
But I have to agree that like you I would be a bit nervous too holding large in Thailand. Then again I can hide stuff like you wouldn't believe. :)

hiding is no problem at all! transporting is the problem if you want to move or are perhaps forced to move to another country.

Lost in LOS Gold Member

Lost in LOS

Posted
Posted
But I have to agree that like you I would be a bit nervous too holding large in Thailand. Then again I can hide stuff like you wouldn't believe. :D

hiding is no problem at all! transporting is the problem if you want to move or are perhaps forced to move to another country.

Naam, if you have to leave in a hurry I will be happy to hold it for you.......after all, what are friends for ? :)

Naam Star Member

Naam

Posted
Posted
But I have to agree that like you I would be a bit nervous too holding large in Thailand. Then again I can hide stuff like you wouldn't believe. :D

hiding is no problem at all! transporting is the problem if you want to move or are perhaps forced to move to another country.

Naam, if you have to leave in a hurry I will be happy to hold it for you.......after all, what are friends for ? :)

the water in your Koi pond is too clear! :D

jazzbo Platinum Member

jazzbo

Posted
Posted

Then again I can hide stuff like you wouldn't believe.... and as we learned from The Shawshank Redemption, even the prison guards don't look up that far.

badge Silver Member

badge

Posted
Posted
Sokal, your reasoning gets more and more innocuous.

Your previous(unnecessary) suggestion that Golds rise is proof of Inflation, in erroneous.

Lets measure Inflation the old fashioned way; prices for goods and services.

When your Hyperinflation shows up in the US or EU(places that matter), we can see who was closer. :D

Even without Inflation Gold can continue to rise.

It has had tenuous link with Inflation in the past, I dont see why that should end now.

So that is your excuse to my facts ? Places that matter ??? :D:)

But Sokal, nothing youve posted has been relevant?

You keep flitting from one piece of tenuously related data or erroneous view, to another.

You've adopted my girlfriends favourite policy whenever she realises shes fighting a lost cause; misdirection :D

Theres no inflation. Inflation is not measured with financial instruments. When there is Hyperinflation(and imagine how high Gold would be by the time its filtered through, huh) we'll come back and I'll congratulate you :D

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