Stockmarket Trading, Forex, Commodities.

[Paulo1]

Nice trade on the AuD/Usd.

I closed my AUD/USD short position at 0.6410 when it seemed direction was uncertain. It even went up past 0.65 this morning.

I then tried shorting AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY but got chopped by the volatility due to my stops not being wide enough. They've both moved lower from where I got stopped out .

I like to use Alpari.co.uk and Fxopen for Forex. The spreads are as good as Onanda,

I checked the FXOpen and the Alpari web sites but they both say their spread is "from 2 pips", whereas Oanda have 0.9 pip spread for EUR/USD and 1.5 pips for USD/JPY.

Here are the specified spreads from Alpari and Oanda:

Alpari Contracts Specifications

Current OANDA Pairs and Spreads

I've opened a free demo account with MIG, because I needed data for the 28 pairs specified by this indicator that I wanted to try: Spaghetti Indicator

It feels fast and reliable, and I think it has been recommended by other traders.

For anyone interested, here are the links to download MIG's MetaTrader program. After installation, it's easy to create a new demo account and then start getting real-time data:

http://www.migfx.ch/fileadmin/download/sof...e/mig4setup.exe

http://www.migfx.ch/fileadmin/download/sof...mobilesetup.cab

At the moment I'll only use MIG for real-time data and analysis, and transact through Interactive Brokers or Oanda.

I think IB is good ,but for a beginner maybe a little advanced.

I've mostly been trading stocks through them, and they are excellent for that, especially the low commissions (0.005 USD per share).

I share your thoughts on the AUD as I live in Thailand and have most money in AUD. I did make a lucky move when it was almost at paririty with the USD, so thats been very good to me.

Yes you are very lucky with that. I wasn't watching the currencies when the big moves happened (I was focused only on the stock market), and have suffered for not having taken action early. In hindsight, it looks like a no-brainer. The only thing I can do now is keep a closer eye on currencies going forward.

It's important for everyone who relies on offshore savings/income/assets to always keep a watch on currency rates, because not taking any action when rates move adversely can result in being a lot poorer in the country of residence.

So what options do ex-patriates have? They could exchange/withdraw a large amount of their savings, so that they "lock-in" a good rate before adverse moves. Or they could learn a little about currency trading and make trades that will profit from the adverse moves in order to counteract their losses that they would otherwise have suffered. The leverage that the brokers provide makes currency trading easy and accessible to most people - a trade worth 10K USD may require only 200 USD of actual cash in the trading account. This is something foreigners living in Thailand or any other country should think about.

Been in and out of the GPB/USD.

I shorted GBP/USD based on the support breakout last night at 1.47758, with a stop currently at 1.492. It has been quite volatile.

I really like to give FX room to breath as volatility can change very quickly. Since the 2 Dec there has been some big swings 100 plus pips, nice to ctch them, but I am sure you know how hard that can be.

I know what you mean. The average daily ranges for most currency pairs have been in the hundreds. The ATR(20) of EUR/USD was around 300 a couple of weeks ago, which is crazy. Now it's around 200 which is still quite high. It was around 100 in July 2008 and around 50 in July 2007.

The increased ranges means wider stops are required, which then should mean smaller position sizes if we follow the rule of only risking a small percentage (e.g. 2%) of your trading account on each trade. This is where a broker that has minimum order sizes would not be appropriate for small trading accounts.

We are not trying to pick the top or bottom. If one can get into the trade and 50% of the move you are still making good money and its more certain you will make a profit rather than a loss. Remember> The Trend is your Friend, Until the Bend.

I agree, and currencies are known to have long trends, which makes trend-following trading easier. The problem often is the identification of a trend in real-time (whereas it's easy to do in hindsight). I look at multiple time frames to attempt to see what the main trend is, and I'd never go against it. Entering on a short-term pullback is often the recommended way to enter the dominant trend, though it can take patience to wait for such pullbacks, and I haven't always been patient. I think I prefer breakouts because I can place stop-entry orders above resistance or below support, and they are automatically triggered when the momentum is in the direction of the main trend, which feels a lot more intuitive and I don't have to watch as closely. Of course, there's always the problem of reversal due to the trend being over-extended, and where to put the stop if the recent moves have been quite sharp.

Have just added to my GPB/USD position 1.4685 stop moved to 1.4778

Thanks for the information on the Onanda Spreads. I was actually meant to say "the spreads arn't as good as Onanda" . But I do know the Data Feed from Alpari is rated as one of the best and most reliable. Where as Oanda is trying to be an honest operation, but they can't be that, because of the limitations of their technology. You can not trade the News with them either. I am not putting them down and I think for the daily scalper they are ok.

[Paulo1]

Nice trade on the AuD/Usd.

I closed my AUD/USD short position at 0.6410 when it seemed direction was uncertain. It even went up past 0.65 this morning.

I then tried shorting AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY but got chopped by the volatility due to my stops not being wide enough. They've both moved lower from where I got stopped out .

I like to use Alpari.co.uk and Fxopen for Forex. The spreads are as good as Onanda,

I checked the FXOpen and the Alpari web sites but they both say their spread is "from 2 pips", whereas Oanda have 0.9 pip spread for EUR/USD and 1.5 pips for USD/JPY.

Here are the specified spreads from Alpari and Oanda:

Alpari Contracts Specifications

Current OANDA Pairs and Spreads

I've opened a free demo account with MIG, because I needed data for the 28 pairs specified by this indicator that I wanted to try: Spaghetti Indicator

It feels fast and reliable, and I think it has been recommended by other traders.

For anyone interested, here are the links to download MIG's MetaTrader program. After installation, it's easy to create a new demo account and then start getting real-time data:

http://www.migfx.ch/fileadmin/download/sof...e/mig4setup.exe

http://www.migfx.ch/fileadmin/download/sof...mobilesetup.cab

At the moment I'll only use MIG for real-time data and analysis, and transact through Interactive Brokers or Oanda.

I think IB is good ,but for a beginner maybe a little advanced.

I've mostly been trading stocks through them, and they are excellent for that, especially the low commissions (0.005 USD per share).

I share your thoughts on the AUD as I live in Thailand and have most money in AUD. I did make a lucky move when it was almost at paririty with the USD, so thats been very good to me.

Yes you are very lucky with that. I wasn't watching the currencies when the big moves happened (I was focused only on the stock market), and have suffered for not having taken action early. In hindsight, it looks like a no-brainer. The only thing I can do now is keep a closer eye on currencies going forward.

It's important for everyone who relies on offshore savings/income/assets to always keep a watch on currency rates, because not taking any action when rates move adversely can result in being a lot poorer in the country of residence.

So what options do ex-patriates have? They could exchange/withdraw a large amount of their savings, so that they "lock-in" a good rate before adverse moves. Or they could learn a little about currency trading and make trades that will profit from the adverse moves in order to counteract their losses that they would otherwise have suffered. The leverage that the brokers provide makes currency trading easy and accessible to most people - a trade worth 10K USD may require only 200 USD of actual cash in the trading account. This is something foreigners living in Thailand or any other country should think about.

Been in and out of the GPB/USD.

I shorted GBP/USD based on the support breakout last night at 1.47758, with a stop currently at 1.492. It has been quite volatile.

I really like to give FX room to breath as volatility can change very quickly. Since the 2 Dec there has been some big swings 100 plus pips, nice to ctch them, but I am sure you know how hard that can be.

I know what you mean. The average daily ranges for most currency pairs have been in the hundreds. The ATR(20) of EUR/USD was around 300 a couple of weeks ago, which is crazy. Now it's around 200 which is still quite high. It was around 100 in July 2008 and around 50 in July 2007.

The increased ranges means wider stops are required, which then should mean smaller position sizes if we follow the rule of only risking a small percentage (e.g. 2%) of your trading account on each trade. This is where a broker that has minimum order sizes would not be appropriate for small trading accounts.

We are not trying to pick the top or bottom. If one can get into the trade and 50% of the move you are still making good money and its more certain you will make a profit rather than a loss. Remember> The Trend is your Friend, Until the Bend.

I agree, and currencies are known to have long trends, which makes trend-following trading easier. The problem often is the identification of a trend in real-time (whereas it's easy to do in hindsight). I look at multiple time frames to attempt to see what the main trend is, and I'd never go against it. Entering on a short-term pullback is often the recommended way to enter the dominant trend, though it can take patience to wait for such pullbacks, and I haven't always been patient. I think I prefer breakouts because I can place stop-entry orders above resistance or below support, and they are automatically triggered when the momentum is in the direction of the main trend, which feels a lot more intuitive and I don't have to watch as closely. Of course, there's always the problem of reversal due to the trend being over-extended, and where to put the stop if the recent moves have been quite sharp.

Have just added to my GPB/USD position 1.4685 stop moved to 1.4778

Thanks for the information on the Onanda Spreads. I was actually meant to say "the spreads arn't as good as Onanda" . But I do know the Data Feed from Alpari is rated as one of the best and most reliable. Where as Oanda is trying to be an honest operation, but they can't be that, because of the limitations of their technology. You can not trade the News with them either. I am not putting them down and I think for the daily scalper they are ok.

Have just added to my GPB/USD position 1.4685 stop moved to 1.4778

Just had a 130 pip move while typing the above. just had a huge downside break.

Stop now 1.4691.

[Paulo1]

GPB/USD stop now at 1.4650.

Just posted a chart. I have only shown the last entry.

The horizontals show other entries.

[Paulo1]

GPB/USD cashed in at 1.4519

on account: =============

Forex Spot

Short 300,000 EURGBP @ 0.86553 Trailing Stop at .86762

Entry about 8pm Thai time

[hyperdimension]

GPB/USD cashed in at 1.4519

That was a good catch. I've been out most of today, and have only just close my position at around break even. These big moves are making trading on a daily time frame difficult. Either you need to keep watching or you need to put automation in place. I probably should have set some kind of automated trailing stop, which Interactive Brokers provides.

You seem to like to trade against the daily trend e.g. EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP. What kind of success have you had with such reversal trades? I think trend following is easier and less risky due to the trending nature of currencies.

I was going to enter a long stop-entry order today for EUR/CAD but didn't due to the pending ECB rate decision. But now that the rate has been cut by 0.75% (the biggest cut in its 10-year history) EUR/CAD is up near major resistance at 1.6150. Hmmm.

[Paulo1]

GPB/USD cashed in at 1.4519

That was a good catch. I've been out most of today, and have only just close my position at around break even. These big moves are making trading on a daily time frame difficult. Either you need to keep watching or you need to put automation in place. I probably should have set some kind of automated trailing stop, which Interactive Brokers provides.

You seem to like to trade against the daily trend e.g. EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP. What kind of success have you had with such reversal trades? I think trend following is easier and less risky due to the trending nature of currencies.

I was going to enter a long stop-entry order today for EUR/CAD but didn't due to the pending ECB rate decision. But now that the rate has been cut by 0.75% (the biggest cut in its 10-year history) EUR/CAD is up near major resistance at 1.6150. Hmmm.

Hi Hyper,

I never try to trade against the trend. Just yesterday was a top forming set-up, which has failed at present. EUD/GPB was lucky to get out with a 15 pip profit. Thought it was a bit early. Still made a little. GPB/USD was a ripper.

AUD/CAD long signal was yesterday at .8125 still getting a long signal today, but being friday pass. It broke the .8200 whether it can hold ??????. Being a commodity bassed currencies one need to be a little careful here at present. But don't you always.

AUD/JPY - short @ 59.80 sell limit stop if bid @ 60.09 = ??????? this is a good pair to trade the Asian timeframe. Will watch closely as could change entry at anytime.

USD/CHF short @ 1.1993 stop @ 1.2075

Being friday will only enter small positions. Had a good week so don,t want too get greedy.

EUD/CAD would have produced a nice result. Would treat it with caution after such a good move, unless you are in for a scalp or 2.

Cheers

Edited December 5, 2008 by Paulo1

[Paulo1]

GPB/USD cashed in at 1.4519

That was a good catch. I've been out most of today, and have only just close my position at around break even. These big moves are making trading on a daily time frame difficult. Either you need to keep watching or you need to put automation in place. I probably should have set some kind of automated trailing stop, which Interactive Brokers provides.

You seem to like to trade against the daily trend e.g. EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP. What kind of success have you had with such reversal trades? I think trend following is easier and less risky due to the trending nature of currencies.

I was going to enter a long stop-entry order today for EUR/CAD but didn't due to the pending ECB rate decision. But now that the rate has been cut by 0.75% (the biggest cut in its 10-year history) EUR/CAD is up near major resistance at 1.6150. Hmmm.

Hi Hyper,

I never try to trade against the trend. Just yesterday was a top forming set-up, which has failed at present. EUD/GPB was lucky to get out with a 15 pip profit. Thought it was a bit early. Still made a little. GPB/USD was a ripper.

AUD/CAD long signal was yesterday at .8125 still getting a long signal today, but being friday pass. It broke the .8200 whether it can hold ??????. Being a commodity bassed currencies one need to be a little careful here at present. But don't you always.

AUD/JPY - short @ 59.80 sell limit stop if bid @ 60.09 = ??????? this is a good pair to trade the Asian timeframe. Will watch closely as could change entry at anytime.

USD/CHF short @ 1.1993 stop @ 1.2075

Being friday will only enter small positions. Had a good week so don,t want too get greedy.

EUD/CAD would have produced a nice result. Would treat it with caution after such a good move, unless you are in for a scalp or 2.

Cheers

AUD/JPY I went short 59.63 stop @ 60.80. which was just above resistance on the houely chart. If you were running a smaller account, such as mini lots etc you would not want to use a stop this big. 59.84 would proberly be more acceptable. I close this order @ 57.96 using a 25 pip trailing stop.

[Paulo1]

To win in trading you only have to master one one trick and do it over and over again.

In trading there is ABSOLUTLEY NO ROOM FOR ERROR! Try to trade as perfectly as you possibly can; everyday, every trade; Every trade I enter I say to myself: THIS IS GOING TO BE THE BEST TRADE I HAVE EVER DONE. Even if you loose you will feel good about trading well.

USD/CHF.

LONG ended the week on a high @ 1.2200 Its seems to have found a trading range between .2200 and the lows of 1930 ish, so you are really looking at 200 plus pip trading range, Pending on your indicator set-up. I am lookng for a short entry @2200 level or 2261. Or long as above or at around 1.2070 ish.

USD/CHF tends to be more volatile and less liquid than other CHF currency pairs.(BEWARE). EUR/USD and EUR/CHF are sometimes used as leading indicators for USD/CHF.

To trade this pair you really need to be on the ball.

My exact entry is undecided at present. WHY?

1. trading range

2. trading between support and resistance.

3. monday, have to wait for the Euro/Usd markets to open in order to get a feel for the market.

4. I have a hangover.

Edited December 7, 2008 by Paulo1

[midas]

SET has posted some decent gains over the past 2 days.

Does anyone think that was the bottom ?

I often wondered how much of the fall below 400 on SET was attributable to

the political mess compared to the global financial crisis and now it appears the

politics may have been sorted out with the Democrats likely to be in power ?

Agree or disagree ?

[jjnr]

SET has posted some decent gains over the past 2 days.

Does anyone think that was the bottom ?

I often wondered how much of the fall below 400 on SET was attributable to

the political mess compared to the global financial crisis and now it appears the

politics may have been sorted out with the Democrats likely to be in power ?

Agree or disagree ?

My guess is that while a clearing political situation certainly helps things the SET will continue to take it's major cues from global markets and my other guess is that global markets haven't reached a bottom yet so any SET gains will stay capped for the foreseeable future.

That being said if the political situation has not improved by the time the bottom is in place the SET will largely get left behind in the global recovery.

[Kf6vci]

Hi,

what are your positions, meaning where are you long or short?

I'm short on an index and a car future and long on crude.

The outlook for 2009 is grim, really truly abysmal. Jobs are being axed world wide... IMHO, nothign will stop this avalanche, certainly not the FED lowering rates to Japanese levels.

[hyperdimension]

AUD/USD has crashed from almost 0.68 to around 0.65 in just 14 hours.

I think it's because news had just came out that the senate has rejected the U.S. car maker bailout plan. (Senate Rejects Auto Industry Bailout After Talks Fail)

The AUD/USD has been highly correlated to the US stock market lately. Below is a graph of the 50 day correlation between AUD/USD and the S&P 500:

I shorted AUD/JPY at 58.73, which is a bit late because I was out earlier today, but I'm anticipating further weakness in the Austalian dollar in today's US stock market session.

[hyperdimension]

AUD/USD has crashed from almost 0.68 to around 0.65 in just 14 hours.

I think it's because news had just came out that the senate has rejected the U.S. car maker bailout plan. (Senate Rejects Auto Industry Bailout After Talks Fail)

The AUD/USD has been highly correlated to the US stock market lately. Below is a graph of the 50 day correlation between AUD/USD and the S&P 500:

I shorted AUD/JPY at 58.73, which is a bit late because I was out earlier today, but I'm anticipating further weakness in the Austalian dollar in today's US stock market session.

[hyperdimension]

The latest S&P 500 earnings estimates (dated 2008-12-10) for 2009 have dropped quite a bit from the numbers just a week ago (2008-12-03).

Reported earnings estimates for 2009 was 49.15 as of 2008-12-03. Now it's 42.24. That's a drop of 14%.

That results in a S&P 500 price earnings ratio for 2009 of over 20, which feels quite high. I think the S&P 500 has further to fall.

[Paulo1]

I have been Short the USD/CHF for the last 2 days.

Entry was 1.1996 , exited today @ 1.1785 and have re-emtered a minor position, then took a small profit again. Will enter again sell limit @ near 1.1846. I like this pair at present. Nice smooth downtrend. The chart I have posted is a daily signal chart.

Its going to very interesting when the US opens

Edited December 12, 2008 by Paulo1

[Paulo1]

AUD/USD has crashed from almost 0.68 to around 0.65 in just 14 hours.

I think it's because news had just came out that the senate has rejected the U.S. car maker bailout plan. (Senate Rejects Auto Industry Bailout After Talks Fail)

The AUD/USD has been highly correlated to the US stock market lately. Below is a graph of the 50 day correlation between AUD/USD and the S&P 500:

I shorted AUD/JPY at 58.73, which is a bit late because I was out earlier today, but I'm anticipating further weakness in the Austalian dollar in today's US stock market session.

The Aussie had a bit of a run this week, but the long term outlook is getting worse by the day. I received this from Dukscopy today.

<H5 style="PADDING-RIGHT: 20px; BACKGROUND-POSITION: left center; DISPLAY: block; PADDING-LEFT: 30px; FONT-SIZE: 1em; PADDING-BOTTOM: 2px; PADDING-TOP: 1px; BORDER-BOTTOM: #154572 1px solid; BACKGROUND-REPEAT: no-repeat; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #eeeeee">Previous session overview</H5>On Thursday, the euro regained what it had lost against the dollar over the course of the last two months.

The outlook for the U.S. auto sector darkened Friday in Asian hours after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid acknowledged on the floor of the Senate that lawmakers would be unable to reach agreement.

Euro rose sharply higher in European session and extended intra-day gain in NY session after penetrating previous key res at 1.3300, price hit a seven-week high at 1.3407 versus the dollar.

GBPUSD was able to break above major trend line resistance at 1.49, suggesting that a bigger bullish retracement may be in store despite the dour outlook for the UK economy. GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.4796 and a high of 1.5078 before closing the day at 1.5010.

The Canadian dollar rose sharply against the greenback as oil rose almost 5% after the International Energy Agency predicted oil demand would rise next year and expectation of output cuts.

The Japanese currency's performance was particularly stellar, rising by several yen against the euro, sterling and the Australian dollar. Sinking Asian stocks, coupled with mounting worries over the U.S.'s auto-sector and broader economy, buttressed a general sense of risk aversion, boosting demand for low-risk currencies like the yen.

The Australian dollar was largely unchanged Friday, well off its session highs but having regained some of its losses triggered after U.S. lawmakers failed to pass a rescue package for auto makers, sending global market sentiment into a tailspin.

<H5 style="PADDING-RIGHT: 20px; BACKGROUND-POSITION: left center; DISPLAY: block; PADDING-LEFT: 30px; FONT-SIZE: 1em; PADDING-BOTTOM: 2px; PADDING-TOP: 1px; BORDER-BOTTOM: #154572 1px solid; BACKGROUND-REPEAT: no-repeat; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #eeeeee">Market expectation</H5>The euro and dollar, while even against each other, are 2% lower against the yen as risk aversion pops up again after the U.S. bailout for car companies faltered over political disputes in the U.S. Senate.

Technical factors were also behind bearish sentiment toward the greenback, traders said. There is a general sense year-end funding concerns might not be as bad as the market expected, therefore some players (such as European non-banks) unwound dollar holdings for year-end liquidity reasons.

Cable traded to USD1.5050 before sliding lower again in line with euro-dollar, the entry of Europe providing the added weight to take it through the overnight lows and on to USD1.4915. Rate currently trades around USD1.4925. Support seen placed at USD1.4910/00 (USD1.4905 50% USD1.4678/1.5133), with stronger interest at USD1.4850 (61.8%). Resistance placed at USD1.5000, more between USD1.5020/30 ahead of stronger level at USD1.5050.

For EURUSD bids noted toward USD1.3250, a break to open a deeper move toward USD1.3220 ahead of USD1.3200/1.3190. Resistance placed at USD1.3300/10, stronger toward USD1.3350.

While the U.S. dollar will be the main victim of shaken confidence, the Australian currency will also be held back as it continues to be viewed as a barometer of global market anxiety, analysts said

[hyperdimension]

I just got stopped out of my AUD/JPY short position due to a quick bounce back up. I should have stayed home today... I would have been able to catch the obvious breaks through support levels. Oh well, I'd much rather lose a small amount and move on than to keep holding on to a possibly very large uncontrolled loss. I try to keep each loss to within 2% or 3% of my trading account.

After such a sharp fall today in the Australian dollar, a question now is how much of the anticipated falls on the stock market has already been priced in. We'll have to wait and see how the market acts tonight on the Australian dollar.

I'm going out tonight, so I think I'm going to miss some big moves again when the stock markets open.

I like this pair at present. Nice smooth downtrend. The chart I have posted is a daily signal chart.

Yes USD/CHF looks smooth on 4 hour and daily charts. What time frame do you usually trade off? Do you use other time frames as confirmations?

What indicators do you use to identify a trend?

[hyperdimension]

While the U.S. dollar will be the main victim of shaken confidence, the Australian currency will also be held back as it continues to be viewed as a barometer of global market anxiety, analysts said

So if the U.S. dollar and Australian dollar are both anticipated to get weaker, then AUD/JPY (instead of AUD/USD) would be the better pair to trade to play the weakening Australian dollar.

I've made another attempt to short AUD/JPY again, now entering at the break of 59 with stop at above 60, which I hope is wide enough for the current volatility. The most recent swing high on the hourly chart was at the previous hour's bar whose high was at 59.71.

Edited December 12, 2008 by hyperdimension

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

One of the big hedge funds is a ponzi a 50 billion dollar ponzi. Madoff if the guys name didn't catch the hedge fund name. I immagin there will be a huge drop in hedge funds when the market opens. Kind of hard to immagin what he could do with 50B. CNBC

[lannarebirth]

While the U.S. dollar will be the main victim of shaken confidence, the Australian currency will also be held back as it continues to be viewed as a barometer of global market anxiety, analysts said

So if the U.S. dollar and Australian dollar are both anticipated to get weaker, then AUD/JPY (instead of AUD/USD) would be the better pair to trade to play the weakening Australian dollar.

I've made another attempt to short AUD/JPY again, now entering at the break of 59 with stop at above 60, which I hope is wide enough for the current volatility. The most recent swing high on the hourly chart was at the previous hour's bar whose high was at 59.71.

You know, if currencies went where "they" say they are going all the time, your only job would be cashing the checks piling up in your mailbox.

There seem to be a lot of traders here lately, but no one seems to be telling you how to make money. Here's a really good piece of advice. Take in ZERO media input. NEVER watch CNBC, Bloomberg etc. Do your own work, make a plan, follow your plan, and have a mechanism in place that tells you when your plan is wrong. When you're wrong get out or switch sides. That's not so hard is it?

BTW, AUD has a gap in it's chart at 57 (and 77).

Edited December 12, 2008 by lannarebirth

[Paulo1]

I just got stopped out of my AUD/JPY short position due to a quick bounce back up. I should have stayed home today... I would have been able to catch the obvious breaks through support levels. Oh well, I'd much rather lose a small amount and move on than to keep holding on to a possibly very large uncontrolled loss. I try to keep each loss to within 2% or 3% of my trading account.

After such a sharp fall today in the Australian dollar, a question now is how much of the anticipated falls on the stock market has already been priced in. We'll have to wait and see how the market acts tonight on the Australian dollar.

I'm going out tonight, so I think I'm going to miss some big moves again when the stock markets open.

I like this pair at present. Nice smooth downtrend. The chart I have posted is a daily signal chart.

Yes USD/CHF looks smooth on 4 hour and daily charts. What time frame do you usually trade off? Do you use other time frames as confirmations?

What indicators do you use to identify a trend?

Hello Hyper,

The usual time frames I trade depends on the signals validiity or how strong it is. Mainly use a top down approach. Look at the monthly, daily, 4 hr, 1hr 15min, 5 min. The recent signal i got on the USD/CHF was so strong I traded it from an hourly. Its actually been one of the nicest signals for a while. I am not set in concrete and tend to get into the ebbs and flows of the market. (Trading in the Zone,) so to speak.

I really like using trendlines, support/resisitance levels, pivots, fib extensions, candles and one of my favourites is the CCI. This I use for divergence, support/resistance and entries. When you look at my charts you are not really seeing a MOV AV. I use pivot calculations and imput them into the mov ave, this way its more predictable than lagging.

i believe in keeping it as simple as possible.

I also agree with a post here that watching CNBC etc is not so good. The charts always tell the truth and thats all that relivant to me.

Just had a quick look at the AUD/JPY. I call it sideways at present and no confirmed trade. to much like hard work.

Here's part of my monday plan on the USD/CHF.

USD/CHF SHORT entered again yesterday evening @1.1838 stop 1.1858 closed saturday morning @ 1.1770ish. New entry levels @ 1.1804 being the first and 1.1832 being the second short entry. Still holding one position from 1.1835.

[DrGreenthumb]

Try to invest in good penny stocks, as they may explode someday.

[hyperdimension]

AUD/USD has just made an extreme spike in the past 2 hours, with 0.7000 being new resistance level.

I'm glad to have been stopped out of my AUD/JPY short positions.

I didn't go long because almost all of my assets (including cash) are denominated in AUD, so in effect I'm already very long AUD.

Holding any assets in a particular currency is like having a "long" position in that currency.

The only time you could ever be "neutral" is if you have no assets or if your assets no longer have any value!

I've been looking into the concept of individual currency strength and have been programming MetaTrader indicators based on CCFp. See these pages if interested:

Theoretical Basis of Building Cluster Indicators for FOREX

Practical Application of Cluster Indicators in FOREX

Edited December 16, 2008 by hyperdimension

[Paulo1]

AUD/USD has just made an extreme spike in the past 2 hours, with 0.7000 being new resistance level.

I'm glad to have been stopped out of my AUD/JPY short positions.

I didn't go long because almost all of my assets (including cash) are denominated in AUD, so in effect I'm already very long AUD.

Holding any assets in a particular currency is like having a "long" position in that currency.

The only time you could ever be "neutral" is if you have no assets or if your assets no longer have any value!

I've been looking into the concept of individual currency strength and have been programming MetaTrader indicators based on CCFp. See these pages if interested:

Theoretical Basis of Building Cluster Indicators for FOREX

Practical Application of Cluster Indicators in FOREX

Have been short the USD/CHF since the 9/12/2008. Almost 700 pips in the bank.

[hyperdimension]

Have been short the USD/CHF since the 9/12/2008. Almost 700 pips in the bank.

Good trading with USD/CHF. I made around 200 pips last night in demo trading whilst experimenting with a multi-timeframe strategy I'm working on using indicators based on CCFp. USD has been weak and CHF has been strong.

Based on what I see with CCFp, it looks like the only other better performers would have been pairing USD with AUD or NZD.

[Paulo1]

I have not posted for sometime due to the fact i have been to busy trading. Last week plus 900 pips

EUR/GPB was a great trade. bounced off strong support and pivot, very strong signal @ 8856 2nd .8874 then charge to a high off .8997.

What i like mostly about this trade i entered with a 10 pip stop.

[Naam]

i checked my portfolio for pips but couldn't find any. is that OK or should i buy some to be more diversified?

[loong]

I've read this thread because of the heading, but there doesn't seem to be any mention of stockmarket trading - just forex.

Any thoughts on Ftse instruments at all?

[hyperdimension]

I have not posted for sometime due to the fact i have been to busy trading. Last week plus 900 pips

EUR/GPB was a great trade. bounced off strong support and pivot, very strong signal @ 8856 2nd .8874 then charge to a high off .8997.

What i like mostly about this trade i entered with a 10 pip stop.

Yes good trade with EURGBP, though it would be even greater if you are still long; it's at 0.9163 now.

A 10 pip stop is quite tight for the hourly time frame, you would get stopped out quite often wouldn't you? The 20 bar hourly ATR has been around 20 to 30 pips.

Are you trading using your own discretion/intuition or an automated system?

Do you do much MetaTrader strategy programming? I've been doing a lot myself, currently working on a high frequency scalping system. See the attached TesterGraph.

While the rest of the world is in a mess, opportunities remain in currencies.

[gregswim]

I am presently living in Nong Khai and would like to meet or have dicussions on Trading Financial Markets. I have been trading for 15 years and am willing to give advice on different trading opportunities, systems development etc. Also, i would like learn from what others have to say.

You can reply here or send me a personal message.

Hi. I am also a day trader as well as a swing trader, investor, etc. I would like to connect with people in Thailand who are doing the same. I am particularly interested in what trading platforms traders here have found that work well with the available speed of the internet here. Is anyone successfully trading with Interactive Brokers??? I am trying to trade with a proprietary trading platform -- but I am finding that the execution speeds and the real time data lags -- to such a degree that I need to find another trading platform. I trade the NY market -- S&P, Nasdaq, Dow, etc. Thanks for any advice.

Greg