What Will Happen To The Baht?

[spiderman2]

Back to the topic: I heard a rumor that they are considering a devaluation of the Baht. Is there any substance to this or is it just another rumor?

I read in one of the BKK papers recently theyd like to devalue it by 5%.

5% hardly seems to make much difference, but wouldnt it be the case that if the BOT sold baht to lower it a little the markets would think the BOT know something they dont and there would be a run on it.

Edited November 17, 2008 by spiderman2

[Rinrada]

Most Labour governments leave Britain in a real mess, this one has gone that step further and finished the place off.

This sums the 10+ years of NuLabour up to perfection, a must read -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...in-Britain.html

The TELEGRAPH....... ......they only have one RIGHT foot

Gordon is the lad to get things moving........and he Will....

[spiderman2]

The TELEGRAPH....... ......they only have one RIGHT foot

Gordon is the lad to get things moving........and he Will....

Have you been in a coma for the last 11 years?

[Rinrada]

The TELEGRAPH....... ......they only have one RIGHT foot

Gordon is the lad to get things moving........and he Will....

Have you been in a coma for the last 11 years?

[JoeThePoster]

Just wait till Thaksin's frozen money & assets are released and he starts buying up all kinds of forex (USD, RMB, JPY, GBP) to ship out of Thailand.

[Bizz]

Back to the topic: I heard a rumor that they are considering a devaluation of the Baht. Is there any substance to this or is it just another rumor?

Back to the topic: I heard a rumor that they are considering a devaluation of the Baht. Is there any substance to this or is it just another rumor?

I read in one of the BKK papers recently theyd like to devalue it by 5%.

5% hardly seems to make much difference, but wouldnt it be the case that if the BOT sold baht to lower it a little the markets would think the BOT know something they dont and there would be a run on it.

Financial and credit risks are low

Thai households, corporates, banks and the government are not leveraged.

Foreign investors may continue to sell Thai stocks and foreign banks may decide

not to roll over short-term foreign loans. But the magnitude of these potential

outflows is small relative to Thailand’s US$100bn in foreign reserves and

moderate current account surpluses. Still, the BoT is likely to remain cautious and

is unlikely to begin cutting interest rates until global conditions stabilize.

https://www2.phatradirect.com/phatra/Resear...(corrected).pdf

[thailandjunkie]

The Bank of Thailand will cut interest rates by 50bps next month. In my opinion they are behind the curve and should convene an emergency meeting and do it now.

The best indicator as when to buy Thai stocks is when the USD starts to weaken again...best guess would be 2-3 months from now. The USD has been strong as investment/hedge funds have been forced to sell equities worldwide and repatriate those (smaller) funds back into USD. Additionally, the only "safe" investment considered in the current environment is US Treasuries. Again this creates a demand for USD hence the recent strength.

Thai stocks are certainly cheap but don't expect any significant rallies until the global forced sales have been processed through the system.

The other big spanner in the Thai works is the current political situation. Probably going to get worse before it gets better. Cash in the bank...Thai Baht is fine...is the best idea at the moment.

thailandjunkie.blogspot.com

[henryalleman]

All the banks and financials are in free fall almost a week know, so is the SET as a whole, so Thailand is hit by the financial crisis also. But i don't think the Baht will go down before 15 of december( Asean summit in BKK under precidency of Thailand).

[12DrinkMore]

Just wait till Thaksin's frozen money & assets are released and he starts buying up all kinds of forex (USD, RMB, JPY, GBP) to ship out of Thailand.

He won't be very interested in GBP as he can't go to the UL and spend it. :D

[apetley]

Not sure how the UK gets out of this one. 2009 gonna be bad, 2010 looks like depression, 2011 looks worse, 2012 looks like an embarrassment. Heard today that instead of flowers being handed to winning athletes at the 2012 Olympics they are going to give pot plants instead. Seriously.

I left the remediation job at the Olympics Games site in late March. Absolute nightmare.

Just have to hope that the winning athlete doesn't throw them into the crowd then.

[Kf6vci]

The Aussie dollar is undervalued at the moment and cheap to buy in a number of currencies, plus you probably still have accounts in the currency so no added paperwork and complications.

Well, I like the AUD, too because their central bank kept rates high. The GBP is falling because further rate cuts are predicted.

Thailand is in a precarious situation. I would want to sleep at night, thus no THB, please. One hedge might be to get a THB mortgage though, hoping to pay it off for a lot less.

Ultimately, you all should look at the öong end. Munis have double digit yields, a lot of companies are hurting badly. The FED and other central banks just affect the short end.

At less than $ 50, going long on oil with the NYMEX CL future expiring in 2013 or something might work well. As we can bet that there willmbe some war or other crisis driving prices up again. But speculation is out of the question, you said.

Over time, the world should stop buying T-Bills at ridiculus interest rates like 0.7%!

[thailandjunkie]

The Aussie dollar is undervalued at the moment and cheap to buy in a number of currencies, plus you probably still have accounts in the currency so no added paperwork and complications.

Well, I like the AUD, too because their central bank kept rates high. The GBP is falling because further rate cuts are predicted.

Thailand is in a precarious situation. I would want to sleep at night, thus no THB, please. One hedge might be to get a THB mortgage though, hoping to pay it off for a lot less.

Ultimately, you all should look at the öong end. Munis have double digit yields, a lot of companies are hurting badly. The FED and other central banks just affect the short end.

At less than $ 50, going long on oil with the NYMEX CL future expiring in 2013 or something might work well. As we can bet that there willmbe some war or other crisis driving prices up again. But speculation is out of the question, you said.

Over time, the world should stop buying T-Bills at ridiculus interest rates like 0.7%!

Thailand will be one of the few countries in the world that will not fall into recession. Will probably come close this quarter but remain positive. Therefore holding THB at the present time is an ok strategy for me. If the Baht was going to go into freefall (like the Korean Won) it would have already done so with the mass exodus of foreign funds over the last few months. It has remained relatively in-step with most regional currencies.

Next year will see a surge of capital back into emerging markets including Thailand. Unfortunately, with the political issues still out there Thailand will not be at the top of the list. However, expect the Baht to remain in the 36-33 range v USD for next year.

www.thailandjunkie.blogspot.com

[roamer]

The Aussie dollar is undervalued at the moment and cheap to buy in a number of currencies, plus you probably still have accounts in the currency so no added paperwork and complications.

Well, I like the AUD, too because their central bank kept rates high. The GBP is falling because further rate cuts are predicted.

Thailand is in a precarious situation. I would want to sleep at night, thus no THB, please. One hedge might be to get a THB mortgage though, hoping to pay it off for a lot less.

Ultimately, you all should look at the öong end. Munis have double digit yields, a lot of companies are hurting badly. The FED and other central banks just affect the short end.

At less than $ 50, going long on oil with the NYMEX CL future expiring in 2013 or something might work well. As we can bet that there willmbe some war or other crisis driving prices up again. But speculation is out of the question, you said.

Over time, the world should stop buying T-Bills at ridiculus interest rates like 0.7%!

Thailand will be one of the few countries in the world that will not fall into recession. Will probably come close this quarter but remain positive. Therefore holding THB at the present time is an ok strategy for me. If the Baht was going to go into freefall (like the Korean Won) it would have already done so with the mass exodus of foreign funds over the last few months. It has remained relatively in-step with most regional currencies.

Next year will see a surge of capital back into emerging markets including Thailand. Unfortunately, with the political issues still out there Thailand will not be at the top of the list. However, expect the Baht to remain in the 36-33 range v USD for next year.

www.thailandjunkie.blogspot.com

Well what can the rest of us do except shake our heads in awe at your knowledge, certainty and expertise. Unlike the rest of us poor souls who can only make educated guesses you actually know whats going to happen. A true Master of the Universe.

Edited November 21, 2008 by roamer

[syd barrett]

Thailand will be one of the few countries in the world that will not fall into recession. Will probably come close this quarter but remain positive. Therefore holding THB at the present time is an ok strategy for me. If the Baht was going to go into freefall (like the Korean Won) it would have already done so with the mass exodus of foreign funds over the last few months. It has remained relatively in-step with most regional currencies.

Next year will see a surge of capital back into emerging markets including Thailand. Unfortunately, with the political issues still out there Thailand will not be at the top of the list. However, expect the Baht to remain in the 36-33 range v USD for next year.

www.thailandjunkie.blogspot.com

I think that that is a poor prediction Mr thailand junkie. The Thai Baht will fall and it will fall fast. It has broken the magic 35 in last few days and I fully expect it to be 40-45 sometime sooner or later in the next 6 months.

Anyone holding TH baht now should exchange them into a mix of currency. Swiss franc, US$, EURO, GOLD and YEN. Not GBP that is set for parity with US$ by March 2009.

The FTSE is low, in five years it will be around 10,000 so UK equities must be a good bet, long term.

[chiang mai]

Thailand will be one of the few countries in the world that will not fall into recession. Will probably come close this quarter but remain positive. Therefore holding THB at the present time is an ok strategy for me. If the Baht was going to go into freefall (like the Korean Won) it would have already done so with the mass exodus of foreign funds over the last few months. It has remained relatively in-step with most regional currencies.

Next year will see a surge of capital back into emerging markets including Thailand. Unfortunately, with the political issues still out there Thailand will not be at the top of the list. However, expect the Baht to remain in the 36-33 range v USD for next year.

www.thailandjunkie.blogspot.com

Not GBP that is set for parity with US$ by March 2009.

The FTSE is low, in five years it will be around 10,000 so UK equities must be a good bet, long term.

On yer bike Syd.

[VegasVic]

The Aussie dollar is undervalued at the moment and cheap to buy in a number of currencies, plus you probably still have accounts in the currency so no added paperwork and complications.

Well, I like the AUD, too because their central bank kept rates high. The GBP is falling because further rate cuts are predicted.

Thailand is in a precarious situation. I would want to sleep at night, thus no THB, please. One hedge might be to get a THB mortgage though, hoping to pay it off for a lot less.

Ultimately, you all should look at the öong end. Munis have double digit yields, a lot of companies are hurting badly. The FED and other central banks just affect the short end.

At less than $ 50, going long on oil with the NYMEX CL future expiring in 2013 or something might work well. As we can bet that there willmbe some war or other crisis driving prices up again. But speculation is out of the question, you said.

The aussie dollar is valued at exactly what the market values it at, to say it is undervalued is merely a matter of personal belief. If you think that the aussie central banks will not be dropping rates further, then you live in a dream world my friend! Commdodities and base metals will be in a bear market for quite some time to come and since the aussie dollar is one of the most commodity sensitive currencies out there, I would expect that the aussie dollar will not only not rebound anytime soon, but has further downward presssure on it.

[thailandjunkie]

The Aussie dollar is undervalued at the moment and cheap to buy in a number of currencies, plus you probably still have accounts in the currency so no added paperwork and complications.

Well, I like the AUD, too because their central bank kept rates high. The GBP is falling because further rate cuts are predicted.

Thailand is in a precarious situation. I would want to sleep at night, thus no THB, please. One hedge might be to get a THB mortgage though, hoping to pay it off for a lot less.

Ultimately, you all should look at the öong end. Munis have double digit yields, a lot of companies are hurting badly. The FED and other central banks just affect the short end.

At less than $ 50, going long on oil with the NYMEX CL future expiring in 2013 or something might work well. As we can bet that there willmbe some war or other crisis driving prices up again. But speculation is out of the question, you said.

Over time, the world should stop buying T-Bills at ridiculus interest rates like 0.7%!

Thailand will be one of the few countries in the world that will not fall into recession. Will probably come close this quarter but remain positive. Therefore holding THB at the present time is an ok strategy for me. If the Baht was going to go into freefall (like the Korean Won) it would have already done so with the mass exodus of foreign funds over the last few months. It has remained relatively in-step with most regional currencies.

Next year will see a surge of capital back into emerging markets including Thailand. Unfortunately, with the political issues still out there Thailand will not be at the top of the list. However, expect the Baht to remain in the 36-33 range v USD for next year.

www.thailandjunkie.blogspot.com

Well what can the rest of us do except shake our heads in awe at your knowledge, certainty and expertise. Unlike the rest of us poor souls who can only make educated guesses you actually know whats going to happen. A true Master of the Universe.

No certainty in anything unfortunately. As you said educated guesses are the best any of us can do at the moment. Would personally prefer to be in Baht (or most other Asian currencies) for a 3-6 month time frame. The USD could well strengthen further from here but i don't think it will too long before the massive flows into USD Treasuries eases off. At that time investors will be looking to invest in countries that are actually still growing...Thailand probably being one of them.

I don't follow Baht v other FX rates. However it is certainly possible that the Baht could weaken back against Sterling as my Brit buddy on holiday is complaining about his 52 Baht per pound this week....that seems a bit too strong to me.

Cash is still king...in whatever currency.

www.thailandjunkie.blogspot.com

[henryalleman]

The Aussie dollar is undervalued at the moment and cheap to buy in a number of currencies, plus you probably still have accounts in the currency so no added paperwork and complications.

Well, I like the AUD, too because their central bank kept rates high. The GBP is falling because further rate cuts are predicted.

Thailand is in a precarious situation. I would want to sleep at night, thus no THB, please. One hedge might be to get a THB mortgage though, hoping to pay it off for a lot less.

Ultimately, you all should look at the öong end. Munis have double digit yields, a lot of companies are hurting badly. The FED and other central banks just affect the short end.

At less than $ 50, going long on oil with the NYMEX CL future expiring in 2013 or something might work well. As we can bet that there willmbe some war or other crisis driving prices up again. But speculation is out of the question, you said.

Over time, the world should stop buying T-Bills at ridiculus interest rates like 0.7%!

Thailand will be one of the few countries in the world that will not fall into recession. Will probably come close this quarter but remain positive. Therefore holding THB at the present time is an ok strategy for me. If the Baht was going to go into freefall (like the Korean Won) it would have already done so with the mass exodus of foreign funds over the last few months. It has remained relatively in-step with most regional currencies.

Next year will see a surge of capital back into emerging markets including Thailand. Unfortunately, with the political issues still out there Thailand will not be at the top of the list. However, expect the Baht to remain in the 36-33 range v USD for next year.

www.thailandjunkie.blogspot.com

I think you take your dream s for reality. GM thailand just announced they will close their plant for a period of 2 months and send the workers home . When Japan, Europe and the States are already in reccession how can Thailand escape from it. Pen pai medai.

[BlackJack]

first rule is diversify - at least 5 areas - real estate - stocks - cash - managed funds - etc.

try to keep your cash in a government guaranteed account

as ALL banks are involved in lending to each other and when one slips they all start to follow. Thailand is not immune.

The best is yet to come as many banks have not been completely honest in their disclosure BECAUSE they do not want a run on their funds. This will hasten their downfall.

If you can buy some stocks that pay good dividends ie 10% - they re out there.

MOST billion dollars companies that have no debt and positive cash flows are being dragged down with the bad ones. GREAT buys at the moment

SO THERE are some real bargains out there.

ie i bought some stocks at 21 cents and they went to 30 cents in a week. then down then up etc.

but the potential for this company is enormous and when the market settles the stock will be a killer.

Remember the world will go on. People will still eat, drive cars, go out, use electricity, etc.

THey may however stop their annual vacation and save the money just in case!!

THis will effect Thailand. and the effects wont be seen until next year. THais borrow off Thais and loan defaulters will be coming out in droves.

Most of the markets have already factored in more loses and thats why we see loses of 50, 60, even 80% and this is not science but PANIC.

I have blue chip managed funds and ones gone done 61%. On panic and speculation. The real value of the shares are still there in that they are multi billion dollar companies with positive cash flows and no debts. THey also pay a 3 month dividend.

THe panic will subside then its a matter of musical chairs. WHen the music stops will you have a chair?

PS

sell the kids to a relative that has money as they are a non performing asset

Edited November 23, 2008 by BlackJack

[insideleft]

For me personally, it has really depended upon what I'm hoping to do with my money.

According to Warren Buffet, the time to buy is when the markets are ruled by fear. While I'm not really a buyer, Buffet's bank manage and I realise he knows more about the markets and currencies then I do. And he is buying, but I don't know where.

I currently earn pounds, but expect I'll use my money in the future in Oz Dollars or Baht.

the pound has gained in value against the Oz, so my pounds remain good value for me.

fear driven investors are selling pound, and thus it's market value has fallen, but the fear will subside - and if you're wondering about where a currency will go, you will need to gamble to some degree on fear levels, and this can be a very tricky thing to do.

One of the UK's biggest export earner's, tourism, will begin to benefit from the cheap pound, tourism may grow, and with it tourist spending - Tomorrow Labor will announce massive borrowings designed to 'pump-prime' the economy, they will be borrowing pounds -

All of the above will increase the demand for the pound, and at least in the short term, this increased demand will affect the value of the pound.

As a saver, I'm ecstatic with the fall in housing prices, but not so happy with the fall in interest rates.

Because of the instability of the currency markets, I'm sitting tight.

I've been hearing that the Thai government have been propping up the Baht. This is not unusual at all for government's to do...the Aust'n's,amongst many others, are doing the same.

But how far will the Thai dollar reserves go? 100 million sounds like a lot, but for how long? Reports yesterday stated that Thailand's major export markets have slowed and demand for Thai products has fallen significantly. As demand for a country's products falls, demand for its currency falls and this falling demand affects that currency's value.

I don't know about statements like ' a currency is over/under valued' Because you can only get currency value from the level of market demand - the demand sets the value. If demand falls/rises, this is what sets the value.

[goatfarmer]

I have a target of around 38 in the next few months, probably not later than March 09. See my chart website: http://www.asiachart.com/thai.html. 38 is well supported.

Edited November 23, 2008 by goatfarmer

[yumidesign]

IMO it's quite possible for the THB to hold or improve it's value relative to most other currencies in the longer term. Relative to the population size, there is a lot of water, food and gold here. Countries that are (relatively) the least energy dependent, least indebted, least dependent on non productive paper pushing sectors of their national economy, will be toward the back of the pack in the race to the bottom as this all unfolds. So IMO Thailand might well prove to be one of the better places to be on the planet right now.

Maybe, but LOS is part of the globe, its not on a separate planet as the government and some would have it, including i might ad a lot of the 65 million persons who live here. The health of the Thai economy is heavily based on manufactured, automotivs and auto parts in particular, farming exports seconded by the tourist industry. All of which have fallen or are due to fall into the big black hole with everyone else.

The GM plant in Rayong has already closed. and Honda is closing plants around the world

I take the good point of a previous post of the countries ability to absorb workers back into the rural landscape, to a point, which could provide some buffer or breathing space but not for too long

I do have a conspiracy theory to ad. The reason why the bart continues to be so unrealistically high is that some foreign investors have made a deal with someone that they will only put money into the country whilst the rate remains at X.

Exporters are regarded as disposable and not the ones doing the dealing

[yumidesign]

All the banks and financials are in free fall almost a week know, so is the SET as a whole, so Thailand is hit by the financial crisis also. But i don't think the Baht will go down before 15 of december( Asean summit in BKK under precidency of Thailand).

Based on what???????

[yumidesign]

I'm no economist but if the Thai foriegn reserves are 100 billion usd wouldn't they want the more bart to the dollar as possible so if they want to convert to bart to spend...................

[euca]

I'm no economist but if the Thai foriegn reserves are 100 billion usd wouldn't they want the more bart to the dollar as possible so if they want to convert to bart to spend...................

Not as they have to sell most rice exports in foreign currencies, they won't.

All this financial punditry makes a very enjoyable thread. But none has yet pronounced on Thailand's major export commodity. There have been general observations about commodities above, mainly connected to the health of the $-Oz but not specifially about rice prices. People still have to eat so what is to be the fate of the Chao Naa and his rice price?

[jreidy]

The GBP is still falling, in fact it's not worth investing in Sterling at the moment, that's why Gordon Brown has been running around the world with the begging bowl..............

there's something i would like that my british friends explain to me. nobody talks about Tony B. Liar (also known as G.W.'s BOOT cum @ss-LICKER) who was in charge for years of The Greatest Empire on Earth™ and ran the country down in each every respect. but the blame is now on Gordon.

would you please care to elaborate what exactly is/are Mr. Brown's fault and shortcomings? was he the one who claimed that SaddaMn Hussein was poised to eradicate the empire within 45 minutes with his non existing weapons of mass destruction?

please enlighten me

Obviously you need to be enlightened.

Maybe you are unaware the Brown was (back stabbing) Chancellor..would have been better for the UK if he had never left the land of the deep fried mars bar!!...you would'nt be from there would you?

And your reference to the greatest empire...at least it lasted a lot longer than the U.S. empire

[jreidy]

The GBP is still falling, in fact it's not worth investing in Sterling at the moment, that's why Gordon Brown has been running around the world with the begging bowl..............

there's something i would like that my british friends explain to me. nobody talks about Tony B. Liar (also known as G.W.'s BOOT cum @ss-LICKER) who was in charge for years of The Greatest Empire on Earth™ and ran the country down in each every respect. but the blame is now on Gordon.

would you please care to elaborate what exactly is/are Mr. Brown's fault and shortcomings? was he the one who claimed that SaddaMn Hussein was poised to eradicate the empire within 45 minutes with his non existing weapons of mass destruction?

please enlighten me

Browns shortcomings...

Selling off the ENTIRE gold reserves of the UK - When the gold was at record lows. So bang went the countries 'last ditch' economic clout.

Sneaking through laws that now mean expats can only remain in the UK for 90 days (from 180) otherwise they lose tax free entitlement.

Plundering the pension fund.

Those are three just off the top of my head.

Tony Blair is a gimp, but Gordon Brown isn't much better, if at all.

Oh and to rub salt in the wounds he hasn't even been elected by the people, he's just been handed the 'crown' from ole' Tony Blair due to the secret agreements and God knows what else goes on in the looney bin they call Parliament.

I'm with you on this and he introduced countless stealth taxes and on top of it all he's a git!!!!!

[astute]

I am having some issues with people that are complaining about the exchange rate.

Let me show you this page: http:// finance.google.com/finance?q=THBEUR or http:// finance.google.com/finance?q=EURTHB

Yes, in July the baht was a lot cheaper (0.18 against 0.22 now), but a year ago in December 2007 it also went all the way up to 0.23.

So, what is this complaining about an expensive baht?

If the baht is expensive for you, it might not be the bahts fault but your countries coin fault.

Stop that bullshit please!