Abhisit Vejjajiva Elected New Prime Minister Of Thailand

[Splatter]

I'd suggest when the next set of figures are released on

visitors / tourists / insert your massaged attribute here

we'll see a plunge on a decling trend.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/2008-Thailan...ti-t221815.html

An exec summary interpreting the results

after the last coup is free from Business Monitor here...

(sorry, I'm not showing you data from this flipping expensive report for free)

http://www.businessmonitor.com/tourism/thailand.html

Edited December 16, 2008 by Splatter

[sriracha john]

But then, I guess you know you more than than a top tourism industry leader does and that everything was just peachy prior to the airport closure.

John, you are putting all your faith in the TAT for numbers, and refuse to listen directly from any one effected?

So you have complete faith in the TAT yet your signature has this "Former TAT Governor Denies Ever Being TAT Governor, Former TAT Governor Juthamas Siriwan threatens to sue anyone who claims she was the TAT Governor"

I can see why you have complete faith in them

And I don't think you will find one comment that says everything was "just peachy proir to the closer"...

It wasn't TAT.

Look at the post I was responding to for the comment...

[cmsally]

But then, I guess you know you more than than a top tourism industry leader does and that everything was just peachy prior to the airport closure.

John, you are putting all your faith in the TAT for numbers, and refuse to listen directly from any one effected?

So you have complete faith in the TAT yet your signature has this "Former TAT Governor Denies Ever Being TAT Governor, Former TAT Governor Juthamas Siriwan threatens to sue anyone who claims she was the TAT Governor"

I can see why you have complete faith in them

And I don't think you will find one comment that says everything was "just peachy proir to the closer"...

FYI, tourist numbers are supposed to be garnered from a form that TAT sends out every month to hotels which involves lengthy checking of number of arrivals per nationality. Filling out the various boxes and then some really complicated calculation to work out some kind of conclusion.

Most people bin them as it would be ridiculous to pay someone or use up your own time to complete this exercise every month. It would take at least one morning for a small/medium size establishment.

So one would suspect that TAT figures are pulled out of a hat somewhere or are perhaps drawn from the small number of places that send in the form or are drawn from immigration numbers instead.

[MyphuketLife]

Considering the thousands of businesses that are involved in the tourism business from one end of Thailand to the other, I'd be looking for something more than 2 businesses in one city. It will certainly take time to evaluate comprehensively, but before sweeping and unproven conclusive statements, based on a few anecdotal notes, are accepted, I think it's wise and prudent to hold off. The industry itself is capable of making these evaluations and publishing their results.

John this is simple people are saying the PAD airport closer had a negative impact on their travel related business.

You can't honestly think that closing a major international airport for days only shortly after closing smaller airports in the same country had no negative impact on the travel sector can you?

To what extent is the question and with the world economy downturn no one can say for sure... So spin away all you want but at the end of the day closing four airports in a country is bad for the travel sector.

I would think common since would lead people to this conclusion... but here you are proving me wrong

"People" are not simply saying that... they are saying that the airport closure is the overwhelming factor in the downturn in tourism.

I've never said it had no impact.

I've not spun it, I've just asked for objective findings before unproven assessments based on speculation are put forth as fact.

And you wonder why I've considered your posting obviously insincere?

A business has several new bookings coming in every day, the PAD closes the airport, the business sees a 20-30% cancelation rate, the new bookings coming in decline by over 50%... Yeh that just speculation..... The timing is just obviously kwinkydink...

[baht&sold]

"EC member Prapun said the Democrat party could face dissolution after Puea Thai accused Democrat leader Abhisit of working with banned politician Newin."

...The Puea Thai party filed a complaint with the Election Commission (EC) against the Democrat party after its leader and newly elected prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva appeared to team up with banned politician Newin Chidchob.

EC member Prapun Naigowit, referring to the Puea Thai's petition, said the photograph of Mr Abhisit hugging with Mr Newin in an attempt to get more MPs to help the Democrat party set up the new administration could violate articles 96 and 98 of the constitution.

The petition could lead to the dissolution of the Democrat party, the commissioner noted.

The EC earlier considered the case alleging that the People Power party was a proxy of the court-dissolved Thai Rak Thai party. However, there were no laws covering the nominee case.

www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/breakingnews.php?id=135426

+++++++++++++++++++

PS: some here (even some supposedly in business) apparently would like to see never-ending turmoil (as long as it suits their narrow ideologies). However, there's little chance the EC would dissolve over the 'hugging-gate' incident, anymore than PPP were to be dissolved over Thaksin phone-in programs (etc, etc, etc).

Also, as much as a minority here desire to continue doom and gloom (always with a loaded agenda) most would like Thailand to finally move forward.

Edited December 16, 2008 by baht&sold

[OlRedEyes]

But its not the foreign media's opinion who is important, but the opinion of the Thai public.

The foreign media plays a very large part in how potential foreign investors and tourists see Thailand. Which plays a very large part in Thailand's economic performance. Which plays a very large part in Thai opinion of their govt.'s performance.

As much as the Thai, and their unflinching admirers, like to stick their heads in the sand with misplaced pride (which is a weird combination) in Thailand's perceived independence from world opinion, the game has long ago changed, permanently, and Thailand is not the island they wish to believe anymore.

The evil foreigners, and their stupid opinions, have and will continue to have great influence on every single Thai's life now and into the future. Live with it.

The press outside the US was always against Bush, but he won 2 elections. And it didn' stop any foreign investors even he made a war where all the world was against. Also this did not stop and foreign investement.

And your point is? The Thai and US economies are in the same league?

[MyphuketLife]

But then, I guess you know you more than than a top tourism industry leader does and that everything was just peachy prior to the airport closure.

John, you are putting all your faith in the TAT for numbers, and refuse to listen directly from any one effected?

So you have complete faith in the TAT yet your signature has this "Former TAT Governor Denies Ever Being TAT Governor, Former TAT Governor Juthamas Siriwan threatens to sue anyone who claims she was the TAT Governor"

I can see why you have complete faith in them

And I don't think you will find one comment that says everything was "just peachy proir to the closer"...

It wasn't TAT.

Look at the post I was responding to for the comment...

I did look at the post:

"If most businesses were doing well before the airport closure and now they are not, it is not too difficult to figure out.

The airport and fights were mostly full before airport taken over, almost completely empty now - just a few weeks later.

It don't take a brain surgeon.

Spin away! "

Let me try to break it down for you:

1. If most businesses were doing well: this statement is not the same as doing great we are going gangbusters everything was perfect.... No it means they were doing ok.

2. The airport and fights were mostly full before airport taken over: this statement means the flights were not empty they airport and flights had allot of guest, not 100% full but things were ok.

So I don't see any comments with people to claim things were just peachy/perfect proir to the closer. You find statements that the HUGE drop directly after the airport closer is a result of the airport closer... Like the person I qouted above said "it don't take a brain surgeon.... Spin away!"

[HelterSkelter]

Wonderful news and he at least initially appears to be a decent, honest, sincere and well educated guy, indeed a ray of light in the darkness. I wish him well, he has a tough job ahead of him.

As a guy who was educated at Oxford I wonder whether he will be kinder to falangs living here legally and honestly in LOS. On a purely selfish note it would be great if he allowed at least retirees (and of any age) to own their own houses, albeit with a limited small amount of land say reasonably under 400 square wah or even half of that. Anyway the main thing is for now the well being of this country and its people, and its prosperous future. This is hope at last for the Thai people and I hope a final goodbye to the destructive megalomaniac Toxin (though sadly I somehow doubt it)

Indeed, you are not a litle bit selfish, but very selfish. You are worried about what the impact wil be for yourself. May I remind you that we as farang are not important at all, his sole responsibilty is the welbeing of the Thai public, not the farang.

... and <deleted> are you! The guy wished the new PM well, the Thai people well and also wishing that we may have an easier time of it. What's wrong with that? We are important, especially in the eyes of our immediate Thai families for those that have them, so get off your soapbox

Agreed, as highlighted above, he says "the main thing is for now the well being of this country and its people, and its prosperous future." selfish?

And what's so wrong about wishing to be allowed to buy a piece of land? If a Thai (or anyone else) comes to Australia/England/USA/... s/he is permitted to work any job for which s/he is qualified, and if s/he possesses or earns sufficient funds, s/he may also buy property... Why would we not wish the same in Thailand? He is not asking for a gift... simply the 'privilege' of being allowed to part with his hard earned cash in exchange for a commodity, land, just the same as any other resident of this fine nation is 'allowed'.... how is that selfish? A "hot cash injection" which, by-the-way, would surely benefit the Thai economy in the long-run... how is that selfish?

"Please explain!?" <--- Pauline Hanson 1996 ---> lol

Agreed, Abhisit's main focus will be on the Thai people and not Farang interests, that is as it should be and as it must be... but "Rayw"s hope that, due to the fact that the new P.M. might understand what it's like to be a "Stranger in a strange land" (having been one himself), we receive slightly fairer treatment in this country (to which we have brought our $) is not much to ask, is it?

henryalleman: I don't say much on this forum but I read a lot, you have said many things which I agree with, and many things that I do not, such is the nature of discussion. However I would hope you try to rethink your stance on this issue.

<--- warfie dons the flame-proof suit ---> (gee, it's getting a bit threadbare...)

Warfie, I thank you for your comment, and you are correct to mention

Agreed, as highlighted above, he says "the main thing is for now the well being of this country and its people, and its prosperous future." selfish?

I confess I overlooked that line, and I only focussed on

On a purely selfish note it would be great if he allowed at least retirees (and of any age) to own their own houses, albeit with a limited small amount of land say reasonably under 400 square wah or even half of that.

and you are correct that I should have read that sentence more than once, and not make an too hasty conclusion.

By this I also offer my excuses to Rayw's to make an too hasty conclusion.

the comment of jackr

... and &lt;deleted&gt; are you! The guy wished the new PM well, the Thai people well and also wishing that we may have an easier time of it. What's wrong with that? We are important, especially in the eyes of our immediate Thai families for those that have them, so get off your soapbox

I did answer already in another topic.

Never in My life have I seen such a huge collection of "Human Garbage"(The 10% of Decent freedom and Democratic leaned and informed Intellectuals can knowingly omitt themselves from that comment and join the ranks of "Beautiful Diamonds of Humanity"! Peace to You!) But then what is to be expected of social dropouts who run away from thier existance,Marry a prostitude young enough to be thier daughter,and wish a foriegn born and raised cheat installed by judicial coup well!?(By the way Aphisit can't stand Farangs who are'nt rich!"Key nok" as he so eloquently put it.) That 17% (about the all inclusive make up of the Wealthy and thier cousins!) Can Thieve the Countries Power is sick!

"Wewin" was Bought!Obviously!And will not be prosecuted as a result!Otherwise Aphisit has'nt a snowballs chance in H3LL of retaining a "BS" majority!

We are(Thai Family and I) "OUTTA HERE" to live in a human Society where every citizen has Human rights,A right to vote and have it stick, FREE Speech,and unbridled open access

to any information we choose!Our only regret is the grave miscarrige of justice to the rural poor and working class fine people of Thailand!

Truly a sad day for the Majority of Thai people!Thier freedom has been Bought and sold by a minority of Money grabbing Rich elite!And so there is no change in sight for them.

Good luck when the"New and wonderfull" government begins to change ALL visa regulations! You majority of blind and flippant Farangs have supported Lies and oppression!Hooray!

Happy Drunken Farang "New Year!!!

[OlRedEyes]

Snippets from a business perspective:

-Business leaders have overwhelmingly welcomed the selection of Abhisit Vejjajiva of the Democrat party as the country's next prime minister, saying they hope to see major changes in politics to help the country move forward.

-Santi Vilassakdanont, the chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), said he believed public confidence would vastly improve with the change in the main governing party.

-"We are not sceptical about the qualifications of candidates from the Democrat Party," said Pramon Suthivong, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. "What we are concerned about is the candidates from the coalition.

-"What the private sector wants to see is teamwork among economic ministers," he said. "We are feeling better now that we've heard that Mr Abhisit will also lead the economic team of the new government."

www.bangkokpost.com/161208_Business/16Dec2008_biz30.php

----------------

-Abhisit will have a chance to shine at the Asean Summit, which has been rescheduled for February.

-Restoring confidence among the international community is equally important. Foreigners and foreign governments do not understand the complex political situation in Thailand.

-Abhisit has nothing before him except to serve the Thai public. This call is a noble one, and he has been raised to do this.

-Unlike most politicians, he does not have business connections or vested interests he needs to protect.

-It is time to make history.

www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/16/business/business_30091082.php

-Abhisit appears to be a docile puppet. He has been waiting in the wings for years to be handed power. Will he have the strength to hold on to it? Power is NEVER given, it is taken. Deduction: he has no power, therefore he is irrelevant. Others will run the show. Who are they, and what are their policies?

-The coalition seem to be a truly weird one. How long it will hold together should be interesting to watch. Don't think there are many who believe it can survive.

Thai business may show great confidence in him, but from what i see in the international media that is not shared by the rest of the world. We all know the Thai tendency to paint everything as rosy in a desperate attempt to make bad things go away. Time will tell, but I don't share the optimism. I think international business is a little more realistic, the Thai political and economic scene doesn't look very stable for years to come.

Edited December 16, 2008 by OlRedEyes

[animatic]

Here's an interesting one that just came in by Nation SMS news alert:

"EC member Prapun said the Democrat party could face dissolution after Puea Thai accused Democrat leader Abhisit of working with banned politician Newin."

While if this is true they should face dissolution, however this would be bad... I can't image what would go down on the streets if they get dissolved, I mean what would the PAD do to one-up the airport?

In which case ALL of the PTP members and other parties members involved

would be EARLIER on that list for dissolution since they have been working with him for YEARS.

He won't work for their side so NOW bring up the banned arguement they have been ignoring for years.

This is actually one of the funnier things said this political season. Hypocracy of the highest water!

[themuse1969]

hey dotcom, sawad dee khrab. I'm curious about the tiny fonted, grey-printed line below your bode for the country--with which I agree.

Is it a reference to Mr. Obama's election in the US? Most of my associates and I feel an equal promise for him here, as is felt in Thailand ofr the new PM.

Will

Canuck Country

Bodes well for the Country.

[kumsamut]

This guy supports PAD, his own two party members are leader of PAD. They took over airport. He also buys off some of PPP candidates to vote for him. He would make a great leader.

[erobando]

Considering the thousands of businesses that are involved in the tourism business from one end of Thailand to the other, I'd be looking for something more than 2 businesses in one city. It will certainly take time to evaluate comprehensively, but before sweeping and unproven conclusive statements, based on a few anecdotal notes, are accepted, I think it's wise and prudent to hold off. The industry itself is capable of making these evaluations and publishing their results.

John this is simple people are saying the PAD airport closer had a negative impact on their travel related business.

You can't honestly think that closing a major international airport for days only shortly after closing smaller airports in the same country had no negative impact on the travel sector can you?

To what extent is the question and with the world economy downturn no one can say for sure... So spin away all you want but at the end of the day closing four airports in a country is bad for the travel sector.

I would think common since would lead people to this conclusion... but here you are proving me wrong

"People" are not simply saying that... they are saying that the airport closure is the overwhelming factor in the downturn in tourism.

I've never said it had no impact.

I've not spun it, I've just asked for objective findings before unproven assessments based on speculation are put forth as fact.

And you wonder why I've considered your posting obviously insincere?

A business has several new bookings coming in every day, the PAD closes the airport, the business sees a 20-30% cancelation rate, the new bookings coming in decline by over 50%... Yeh that just speculation..... The timing is just obviously kwinkydink...

Data can be used to draw conclusions about long-term effects of the airport closure.

For example, one could look at monthly trends in tourism number for the year before and after.

Then compare these trends to tourism numbers in other countries in the region.

If the numbers for Thailand dropped significantly more than other countries, one could then make the conclusion that the increased drop is not to the global economy.

srirachi john is simply proposing that we look at data before making conclusions about how X effected Y. This seems reasonable to me.

[baht&sold]

Thai business may show great confidence in him, but from what i see in the international media that is not shared by the rest of the world.

Not a wonder...

Meet Sam Moon, Mr Thaksin's PR man and long-time Economist and BusinessWeek partner:

Sam Moon has lived in and worked across Asia for the past 23 years working for The Economist, Dow Jones and his own company in partnership with BusinessWeek.

Based mainly in Hong Kong, Sam spearheaded the effort of two global media companies, namely The Economist Group and Dow Jones, in transforming their respective conference activities into an actual growth-oriented and profitable business units. While in The Economist Group, Sam was also made responsible for The Economist Group’s conference business for the United States and Latin America, with the aim of facilitating a similar business turnaround for The Economist brand.

Sam holds a 'Bachelor of Arts' degree from the University of Tennessee, United States.

www.buildingbetterfuture.org

Edited December 16, 2008 by baht&sold

[hammered]

Wonderful news and he at least initially appears to be a decent, honest, sincere and well educated guy, indeed a ray of light in the darkness. I wish him well, he has a tough job ahead of him.

As a guy who was educated at Oxford I wonder whether he will be kinder to falangs living here legally and honestly in LOS. On a purely selfish note it would be great if he allowed at least retirees (and of any age) to own their own houses, albeit with a limited small amount of land say reasonably under 400 square wah or even half of that. Anyway the main thing is for now the well being of this country and its people, and its prosperous future. This is hope at last for the Thai people and I hope a final goodbye to the destructive megalomaniac Toxin (though sadly I somehow doubt it)

Indeed, you are not a litle bit selfish, but very selfish. You are worried about what the impact wil be for yourself. May I remind you that we as farang are not important at all, his sole responsibilty is the welbeing of the Thai public, not the farang.

... and &lt;deleted&gt; are you! The guy wished the new PM well, the Thai people well and also wishing that we may have an easier time of it. What's wrong with that? We are important, especially in the eyes of our immediate Thai families for those that have them, so get off your soapbox

Agreed, as highlighted above, he says "the main thing is for now the well being of this country and its people, and its prosperous future." selfish?

And what's so wrong about wishing to be allowed to buy a piece of land? If a Thai (or anyone else) comes to Australia/England/USA/... s/he is permitted to work any job for which s/he is qualified, and if s/he possesses or earns sufficient funds, s/he may also buy property... Why would we not wish the same in Thailand? He is not asking for a gift... simply the 'privilege' of being allowed to part with his hard earned cash in exchange for a commodity, land, just the same as any other resident of this fine nation is 'allowed'.... how is that selfish? A "hot cash injection" which, by-the-way, would surely benefit the Thai economy in the long-run... how is that selfish?

"Please explain!?" <--- Pauline Hanson 1996 ---> lol

Agreed, Abhisit's main focus will be on the Thai people and not Farang interests, that is as it should be and as it must be... but "Rayw"s hope that, due to the fact that the new P.M. might understand what it's like to be a "Stranger in a strange land" (having been one himself), we receive slightly fairer treatment in this country (to which we have brought our $) is not much to ask, is it?

henryalleman: I don't say much on this forum but I read a lot, you have said many things which I agree with, and many things that I do not, such is the nature of discussion. However I would hope you try to rethink your stance on this issue.

<--- warfie dons the flame-proof suit ---> (gee, it's getting a bit threadbare...)

Warfie, I thank you for your comment, and you are correct to mention

Agreed, as highlighted above, he says "the main thing is for now the well being of this country and its people, and its prosperous future." selfish?

I confess I overlooked that line, and I only focussed on

On a purely selfish note it would be great if he allowed at least retirees (and of any age) to own their own houses, albeit with a limited small amount of land say reasonably under 400 square wah or even half of that.

and you are correct that I should have read that sentence more than once, and not make an too hasty conclusion.

By this I also offer my excuses to Rayw's to make an too hasty conclusion.

the comment of jackr

... and &lt;deleted&gt; are you! The guy wished the new PM well, the Thai people well and also wishing that we may have an easier time of it. What's wrong with that? We are important, especially in the eyes of our immediate Thai families for those that have them, so get off your soapbox

I did answer already in another topic.

Never in My life have I seen such a huge collection of "Human Garbage"(The 10% of Decent freedom and Democratic leaned and informed Intellectuals can knowingly omitt themselves from that comment and join the ranks of "Beautiful Diamonds of Humanity"! Peace to You!) But then what is to be expected of social dropouts who run away from thier existance,Marry a prostitude young enough to be thier daughter,and wish a foriegn born and raised cheat installed by judicial coup well!?(By the way Aphisit can't stand Farangs who are'nt rich!"Key nok" as he so eloquently put it.) That 17% (about the all inclusive make up of the Wealthy and thier cousins!) Can Thieve the Countries Power is sick!

"Wewin" was Bought!Obviously!And will not be prosecuted as a result!Otherwise Aphisit has'nt a snowballs chance in H3LL of retaining a "BS" majority!

We are(Thai Family and I) "OUTTA HERE" to live in a human Society where every citizen has Human rights,A right to vote and have it stick, FREE Speech,and unbridled open access

to any information we choose!Our only regret is the grave miscarrige of justice to the rural poor and working class fine people of Thailand!

Truly a sad day for the Majority of Thai people!Thier freedom has been Bought and sold by a minority of Money grabbing Rich elite!And so there is no change in sight for them.

Good luck when the"New and wonderfull" government begins to change ALL visa regulations! You majority of blind and flippant Farangs have supported Lies and oppression!Hooray!

Happy Drunken Farang "New Year!!!

To which bastion of pure unadulterated people's democracy are you moving? I am not aware of a single country on the earth where unbridalled open access to any information is available and as for freedom of speech.....

Im not quite sure how foreign residents who marry local prostitutes, as you seem to think every foreigner here does, have any effect on the formation of government and I would assume that the politcsal opinions of foreigners in this country are probably quite diverse not that the opinions of non-citizens really count. However, it is probably a good idea to move away from a country if an obsession with its local politics starts to affect peace of mind and it has to be said if a desire for western values is what is wanted the west is probably best not left.

Happy sober and peaceful New Year

[OlRedEyes]

Thai business may show great confidence in him, but from what i see in the international media that is not shared by the rest of the world.

Not a wonder...

Meet Sam Moon, Mr Thaksin's PR man and long-time Economist and BusinessWeek partner:

Sam Moon has lived in and worked across Asia for the past 23 years working for The Economist, Dow Jones and his own company in partnership with BusinessWeek.

Based mainly in Hong Kong, Sam spearheaded the effort of two global media companies, namely The Economist Group and Dow Jones, in transforming their respective conference activities into an actual growth-oriented and profitable business units. While in The Economist Group, Sam was also made responsible for The Economist Group’s conference business for the United States and Latin America, with the aim of facilitating a similar business turnaround for The Economist brand.

Sam holds a 'Bachelor of Arts' degree from the University of Tennessee, United States.

www.buildingbetterfuture.org

I get your point, but whatever the source of the image, the fact is the image is there. Personally I don't think the image of Abhisit has been created by unfriendly PR. He hasn't really been a real player for long has he. He does come across as a bit of a lamb, which is fine in a stable environment, but not if there are so many wolves out hunting.

I am no high-flying international businessman, schooled and experienced in international investment, but even I ask myself these questions about the Thai political and economic scene, and it's leaders. I'd imagine anyone with millions/billions to invest would take an even more careful look at where he/she wants to invest.

BTW, my image of Abhisit is/was not created by itnl. media. I've liked the guy for a long time, but I have never thought of him as a strong man.

Edited December 16, 2008 by OlRedEyes

[Steve2UK]

-Abhisit appears to be a docile puppet. He has been waiting in the wings for years to be handed power. Will he have the strength to hold on to it? Power is NEVER given, it is taken. Deduction: he has no power, therefore he is irrelevant. Others will run the show. Who are they, and what are their policies?

-The coalition seem to be a truly weird one. How long it will hold together should be interesting to watch. Don't think there are many who believe it can survive.

Thai business may show great confidence in him, but from what i see in the international media that is not shared by the rest of the world. We all know the Thai tendency to paint everything as rosy in a desperate attempt to make bad things go away. Time will tell, but I don't share the optimism. I think international business is a little more realistic, the Thai political and economic scene doesn't look very stable for years to come.

Very good points

Regarding the bold "power" sentence......... I'd say that power can also be "achieved" and then the achiever has some prospect of holding on to it on the basis of "deserving" it. But, in this case, I think few can really argue with the point that Abhisit/Dems have been handed power - IMO that's just the political reality of what's going on here. To state the obvious - what was given so easily by the power-brokers can just as easily be taken away by them.

[OlRedEyes]

-Abhisit appears to be a docile puppet. He has been waiting in the wings for years to be handed power. Will he have the strength to hold on to it? Power is NEVER given, it is taken. Deduction: he has no power, therefore he is irrelevant. Others will run the show. Who are they, and what are their policies?

-The coalition seem to be a truly weird one. How long it will hold together should be interesting to watch. Don't think there are many who believe it can survive.

Thai business may show great confidence in him, but from what i see in the international media that is not shared by the rest of the world. We all know the Thai tendency to paint everything as rosy in a desperate attempt to make bad things go away. Time will tell, but I don't share the optimism. I think international business is a little more realistic, the Thai political and economic scene doesn't look very stable for years to come.

Very good points

Regarding the bold "power" sentence......... I'd say that power can also be "achieved" and then the achiever has some prospect of holding on to it on the basis of "deserving" it. But, in this case, I think few can really argue with the point that Abhisit/Dems have been handed power - IMO that's just the political reality of what's going on here. To state the obvious - what was given so easily by the power-brokers can just as easily be taken away by them.

My thinking is more that whoever allows 'power' to be 'achieved', or hands someone 'power', actually holds the power. The 'power' given is simply an act of temporary delegation. No real power is given. The real power holds the reins and calls the shots. He will be directed to do their bidding, or the 'power' will simply be taken back.

Which is, when all is said and done, how Thai 'democracy' has operated all along, and which is the main cause of the past few years' turmoil, as Thaksin tried to take real power. His corruption et al was never a problem. He wanted power, and that was a big no-no.

Edited December 16, 2008 by OlRedEyes

[hammered]

-Abhisit appears to be a docile puppet. He has been waiting in the wings for years to be handed power. Will he have the strength to hold on to it? Power is NEVER given, it is taken. Deduction: he has no power, therefore he is irrelevant. Others will run the show. Who are they, and what are their policies?

-The coalition seem to be a truly weird one. How long it will hold together should be interesting to watch. Don't think there are many who believe it can survive.

Thai business may show great confidence in him, but from what i see in the international media that is not shared by the rest of the world. We all know the Thai tendency to paint everything as rosy in a desperate attempt to make bad things go away. Time will tell, but I don't share the optimism. I think international business is a little more realistic, the Thai political and economic scene doesn't look very stable for years to come.

Very good points

Regarding the bold "power" sentence......... I'd say that power can also be "achieved" and then the achiever has some prospect of holding on to it on the basis of "deserving" it. But, in this case, I think few can really argue with the point that Abhisit/Dems have been handed power - IMO that's just the political reality of what's going on here. To state the obvious - what was given so easily by the power-brokers can just as easily be taken away by them.

The big question in that scenario is what comes after? It is highly unlikely to be a new democratic government. I do get the impression that this is the last chance parliament is allowed at getting it "right" with "right" defined as what the real power brokers want. In that scenario the new government may last longer than we think but to avoid what may come next as much as anything else.

[Journalist]

What I don't get is those who now declare smugly that Abhisit was appointed via the democratic process, whereas they've always claimed Thaksin/Samak/Somchai weren't.

All of the last three had exactly the same Parliamentary acclamation as Abhisit received yesterday. They also had somewhat more of a popular mandate to go along with that parliamentary vote.

Of course, I do get it really. The Abhisit fans just wanted their man in power, and whatever means and excuses had to be run up the flagpole were just political expediency at the time.

[sriracha john]

So I don't see any comments with people to claim things were just peachy

my comments came on the heels of these posts...

Tourism was only down slightly because of the economy. We were kicking butt - selling well - for weeks before the closing of the airport. The PAD ruined tourism this year pretty much by themselves!

As for the PAD not being responsible for ruining tourism - well quite simply they were responsible.

I know a huge number of people in the tourism industry and PAD actions decimated business for Dec.

What is now happening for 2009 is that there are very few new bookings being made, so it has pretty much trashed 2009 so far too.

PAD is directly responsible, no question about it.

Edited December 16, 2008 by sriracha john

[StClair]

"Abhisit proposes to fix that by amending the constitution should he assume the PM post. That could mean yet another referendum." Time magazine interview.

His thoughts from when he thought he was going to walk into power on the back of the last military set up.

Hope he has the balls to tell PAD and the generals/elite clique where to go and change the constitution back to the agreed 97(?) model. If he can achieve that and deliver his promised education and other reforms to the Isaan people then he maybe a very good solution for the present mess. I wish him the best of luck.

the only thing the "Red Shirts" are upset about is they will lose their 1000bahts per day ...

[Steve2UK]

My thinking is more that whoever allows 'power' to be 'achieved', or hands someone 'power', actually holds the power. The 'power' given is simply an act of temporary delegation. No real power is given. The real power holds the reins and calls the shots. He will be directed to do their bidding, or the 'power' will simply be taken back.

Which is, when all is said and done, how Thai 'democracy' has operated all along, and which is the main cause of the past few years' turmoil, as Thaksin tried to take real power. His corruption et al was never a problem. He wanted power, and that was a big no-no.

Yep - again. I think we're thinking/saying pretty much the same thing.

Fully agree with your last comment - though I'd say that the scale of Thaksin's corruption was a problem in the Thai dimension. Wanting - and looking like he might be close to actually getting - real (personal) power.......... that was certainly a very big no-no for the existing power/rein-holders.

[OlRedEyes]

The big question in that scenario is what comes after? It is highly unlikely to be a new democratic government. I do get the impression that this is the last chance parliament is allowed at getting it "right" with "right" defined as what the real power brokers want. In that scenario the new government may last longer than we think but to avoid what may come next as much as anything else.

Thailand has never had a democracy. There has never been any intention to allow it a democracy, only the superficial trappings to keep the masses quiet, and gain face in the world IMHO.

Thaksin stirred all these quiet, harmonious waters up. The question now is how much has really been awakened here. Has it started a groundswell beyond the Thaksin bogeyman, or not. If it has, turmoil lies ahead, irrelevant of Thaksin. We cannot really know, as a free press and free speech is not allowed here. The generally held 'truths' may be way off. This could be a pressurized bottle on the point of shattering, or it could simply die down to placid waters again, for a while.

Edited December 16, 2008 by OlRedEyes

[LomSak27]

Well hope it all works out ...

However well liked he is by his Etonian friends, the majority of Thai voters have pointedly chosen someone else whenever they have been given an opportunity.

Mr Abhisit owes his new job, not to any democratic mandate, but to the support of powerful friends – and even they have required multiple attempts to propel their nominee to power. There was the army, which drove Mr Thaksin from power in 2006 in a bloodless coup. There were the tame delegates, who rewrote the constitution at the generals’ behest, to give Mr Abhisit a better chance of winning. To their dismay, he lost again in 2007. Cue Mr Abhisit’s new best friends, the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD).

For those who read the paper check out last Saturdays op ed in the Nation (democratic party & PADs flagship paper) in a great little piece on healing the rifts in thai society they hint that Toxcins corruption really wasn't the big issue WooHoo so corruption is no "not a big issue'. Guess we are clearing the decks for a healing period and no anti corruption crusade, but I think we all knew that's where all of us this was going to end.

Welcome to the Magic Kingdom

[xminator]

In which case ALL of the PTP members and other parties members involved

would be EARLIER on that list for dissolution since they have been working with him for YEARS.

As usuall you dont understand what this is all about. Newin was just banned for 5 years. Its not something he have been for years. This is about Abhisit conspiring with a banned party politician to get a platform for forming a new government. There is two articles in the constitution that cover this, and is broken - AND its the EC themselfs that put that on the table. The thing about laws is that they should apply for all sides, not just the one you support.

Whatever happen to the MPs that been working with Newin after he got banned I dont care. They probably get what they deservere for letting themselfs be bought old style. As for the future of Abhisit, is a PM that is so stupid he let himself be seen with a banned faction leader really the right person to see Thailand trough troubled international financial times?

The yellow shirts been using the constitution court to stage a "silent" coup, now they might face the dual edged sword of "justice" themselfs. And come January 11th, the 238 votes will be a minority vote. Its a government that dont have the parliament backing it. Thailand would be better off if the democrats had taken the offer of one of the smaller parties to lead the government.

[konangrit]

Bangkok Post

[konangrit]

And come January 11th, the 238 votes will be a minority vote. Its a government that dont have the parliament backing it. Thailand would be better off if the democrats had taken the offer of one of the smaller parties to lead the government.

16 of the 29 Seats are former Chart Thai seats, the Democrat coalition majority should increase further, not become a minority.

[MyphuketLife]

What I don't get is those who now declare smugly that Abhisit was appointed via the democratic process, whereas they've always claimed Thaksin/Samak/Somchai weren't.

All of the last three had exactly the same Parliamentary acclamation as Abhisit received yesterday. They also had somewhat more of a popular mandate to go along with that parliamentary vote.

Of course, I do get it really. The Abhisit fans just wanted their man in power, and whatever means and excuses had to be run up the flagpole were just political expediency at the time.

I don't get it either... Ethics and the law only come into play if it fits their side, when it's their side that has no ethics or broke the law well....................

Interesting times, in a land full of interesting people (Thai and Farang alike).

[Plus]

What I don't get is those who now declare smugly that Abhisit was appointed via the democratic process, whereas they've always claimed Thaksin/Samak/Somchai weren't.

I'm not sure anyone is smug about the way Abhisit became the PM.

Dems could/should have done exactly the same thing after the Dec elections, and they were more than ready, but political etiquette demanded they had to give chance at forming the government to PPP first. Smaller parties had no political or ideological affiliation with PPP and they put up a whole list of demands that PPP had to agree. If that hadn't worked out, Dems would have been in the govt themselves.

Only Newin's people are legitimate defectors from the 2007 elections point of view, but lots of things have changed since then already, it's Newin's responsibility, and his own gamble with his voters.

>>>>

I agree that Abhisit looks like he was handed the power, that he didn't really seized it, apart from doing a round with roses (that was very gay, imo).

On the other hand, the political winds have changed and only Abhisit was up there ready with all his sails up - he simply caught the wind, that's where his power comes from. He is nobody's puppet but a slave to the popular demand for a change after a year under PPP.