Abhisit Vejjajiva Elected New Prime Minister Of Thailand

[Plus]

Can't you work out for yourself why the Samak government managed a year while the fragile tango dancing required to manage this coalition will find it harder.

I don't think any of coalition partners are going to desert Abhisit any time soon. PPP had its chance and it was a total screw up, the country was paralised and ungovernable, there's no indication they would manage inevitable PAD protests any better or that Thaksin would finally make a breakthrough and come back as a dear leader of all Thais.

Coalition is not held together by the army but by a common understanding and so far the reds have been unconvincing.

[Journalist]

^The dodgier, fringe members of the coalition will stick around as long as their snouts are left unimpeded in the trough that was their price for joining. Thats the only reason they signed up in the first place. They are mercenaries.

[Siripon]

Can't you work out for yourself why the Samak government managed a year while the fragile tango dancing required to manage this coalition will find it harder.

I don't think any of coalition partners are going to desert Abhisit any time soon. PPP had its chance and it was a total screw up, the country was paralised and ungovernable, there's no indication they would manage inevitable PAD protests any better or that Thaksin would finally make a breakthrough and come back as a dear leader of all Thais.

Coalition is not held together by the army but by a common understanding and so far the reds have been unconvincing.

The reds' mantra is give us elections now to see who the people want. Unfortunately for them, the ecnomic crisis demands an acting government now so it's hard to find any economists, pundits or members of the general public who agree with them.

[samgrowth]

http://www.eppo.go.th/retail_prices.html

Is Mark Govt cutting fuel subsidee already? Looks liks E85 is now (a lot) more expensive than E10 or E20. Good luck to those who bought the E85 cars.

Also, Samak 6 months of freebies (water, electric, bus, train,etc ) and fuel tax cut is expiring. Lets see how Mark is going to handle it.

[Bangyai]

http://www.eppo.go.th/retail_prices.html

Is Mark Govt cutting fuel subsidee already? Looks liks E85 is now (a lot) more expensive than E10 or E20. Good luck to those who bought the E85 cars.

Also, Samak 6 months of freebies (water, electric, bus, train,etc ) and fuel tax cut is expiring. Lets see how Mark is going to handle it.

If you look at post 1314 you'll have your answer although the Bangkok Post Link is now dead as they pulled the story. In short....Samaks freebies to be continued.

[Bangyai]

Moving the ASEAN summit to Hua Hin is a smart move by Aphisit :

It will be difficult for any potential protesters to get there as there is only one road heading north to Bangkok which the police will find easy to block in case of trouble. Besides which, the UDD are seemingly finding it more difficult to muster the large numbers they previously attracted. Not so much as apathy setting in but more like resigned stoicism.

Edited January 8, 2009 by Bangyai

[Plus]

^The dodgier, fringe members of the coalition will stick around as long as their snouts are left unimpeded in the trough that was their price for joining. Thats the only reason they signed up in the first place. They are mercenaries.

It is true, but under PPP political problems escalated to the point where there was no feeding at all.

The common understanding I referred to is that they need functioning government to have access to the loot. PPP govt couldn't deliver that, so it's gone.

Will Democrats put a tight lid on corruption? It's a tough balancing act, partners need to be fed while the image must be preserved as well. At some point Chalerm might scream corruption, but that would mean that Democrats have finally reached an understanding with their coalition partners and they will stick together until Abhisit is sure of getting election results his way.

[younghusband]

Can't you work out for yourself why the Samak government managed a year while the fragile tango dancing required to manage this coalition will find it harder.

I don't think any of coalition partners are going to desert Abhisit any time soon. PPP had its chance and it was a total screw up, the country was paralised and ungovernable, there's no indication they would manage inevitable PAD protests any better or that Thaksin would finally make a breakthrough and come back as a dear leader of all Thais.

Coalition is not held together by the army but by a common understanding and so far the reds have been unconvincing.

The reds' mantra is give us elections now to see who the people want. Unfortunately for them, the ecnomic crisis demands an acting government now so it's hard to find any economists, pundits or members of the general public who agree with them.

I see what you mean.For several months some of us, certainly myself and Hammered, have been saying that the political climate in Thailand is going to be dominated by the economic storm.Any hope that Asia including China will be insulated has long evaporated.So far it must be said the impact in Thailand has been limited and the banks are in relatively good shape.But this is only the beginning.Quite fortuitously we have in the current government an economic management team that inspires confidence.This isn't the time to be politicking furiously though I think the Reds have a case.I quote in this regard a pertinent piece from New Mandala, a bit tough on Abhisit in my view but still fair comment.It's a valuable counterpoint to the lies sometimes spread on this forum.

"Here is a first-hand account of the new phase of anti-government protests in Thailand, written by anthropologist Jim Taylor of the University of Adelaide.

The pro-Democracy Red Army or Nor Por Chor (aka People’s Alliance Against Dictatorship) gathered over the past two days starting at a mass rally at Sanam Laung on 28 December with an estimated 40-50,000 people and at the main entrances to Parliament- though making sure there was a passageway clear for politicians. Abhisit, a friend of PAD (he was seen walking among the PAD protesters at Government House and giving them words of encouragement) and a proxy of the army, along with his illicitly emplaced government, many like Newin highly paid for their new loyalty, had its mandatory policy statement at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs down the road from Parliament. This was against the law- as this should have been declared in Parliament - but then the law as we have seen over the past few years can be made on the run to suit particular interests.

Demonstrators from all walks of life including a few buses from the north and the northeast reserved a special vocal resentment for Kasit. The many villagers that I talked to expressed openly a bitter disappointment and profound sadness in what they see as the biased political leanings of the highest order in society. Most traditional Red supporters in the street were too fearful according to many informants to turn up at Parliament given the media warnings of police and army intervention. Reds were also, in the main, clearly pro-Thaksin and considered the democratisation processes started by him including the empowerment of villagers in the late 1990s to have been irreversibly damaged by the turn of events in late 2006 and the fascist-inclined politics coming out of the so-called “Democrat” Party and its traditional elite supporters. Anti-Thaksin media run by Sondhi Lim and his mates especially the Manager and the English-language print media continues to give out false media and consistently lampoon Thaksin along lines of the Nazi campaign to discredit the Jews in the 1930s.

But, the Red campaign, as many rally goers told me, is much more than simply Thaksin now. The question is one of Thai democracy. Rural voters are no longer ignorant of what they can expect and should expect in resource allocation and political participation since Thaksin’s time and grasp well (even better than many Thai academics) the concepts of true democracy and social equity."

[hammered]

This government could easily die by the economy. Truth is they probably have a better team to handle the impending recession than Peau Thai, but they may still end up being blamed for everything.

I tend to think the government will last for longer than people think. The economy is a big issue and lets be honest if Thaksin doesnt manage to overthrow Abhisit soon he is better off waiting things out and seeing how Thailand fairs. Quite how bad this all is will depend on external factors particularly the US. How the US and EU decide to pump prime their economies will be as important as how the Thai government pumps it own and I would think there are a few extra packages awaiting launch other than those we have heard of so far. From what I am aware Thailand's debt to GDP is quite low and so there is a lot of leeway for government intervention.

As someone above commented the reds are also having trouble raising the numbers of people they want for their events. Villagers claim that the going rate is now 1000 baht. That is double what red and yellow were offering to boost their numbers a few weeks back.

The next big thing is the by-elections. I doubt the government claim they will win 20 of the seats, but if they do they will be well secure and Peau Thai will be in trouble. An equal split of the seats up for grabs would be a good government score imho. But we will see.

Then we have the now moved ASEAN. Hopefully it wont be disrupted or more than already. However, the red side will in all likelihood not want to allow Abhisit a big face event victory and so will go all out to cause problems.

Another aspect that will beinteresting to watch will be how the red movement develops. Right now it includes some leaders from the defunct CPT with a very different agenda to that of the more traditional attendees of their larger rallies. What holds them together is Thaksin. If the game starts to move away from Thaksin there are very obvious fault lines in the red side that coule well lead to fissure. Dont forget that Newin has already changed sides and that has caused heartache in the red movement where he was to say the least strongly connected to certain faction if not instrumental in setting them up. The red side are very much now a northern controlled unit rather than a split or more Isaan controlled one, whcih in some ways is a surprising development.

It is highly unlikely that there will be an election of choice in the next few months as it would be potantially economically disastrous for Thailand to have a period of politcal uncertainty now. I would persoanlly fear for another coup and hard government if the current government collapses soon, which is probably why it will not collapse.

[Baxter]

This Jim Taylor guy seems to be either completely ill informed or part of a lobbying campain for Thaksin. Either way it's clear he does not know what he's talking about and just repeats what he heard from the spin doctors or he's one himself.

[Plus]

Yeah, YH, you should do better than quote those deluded new mangala characters.

"Empowerment of villages in the late 1990s" - what's that all about? Previous Democrat government?

"Rural voters are no longer ignorant of what they can expect and should expect in resource allocation and political participation since Thaksin’s time" - they have nothing to complain about resource allocation proposed by Abhisit, and I don't know anyting about increased political participation by rural voters under Thaksin.

>>>

Seat distribution in by-elections will tell very little unless you know specifics of each constituency and how voting patterns have changed there.

Bangkok elections are easier to judge - how many votes can Sam collect on his "love TRT, vote for me" platform? How many votes can Pluem collect here for his anti-PAD stance? Can Paribhat get as money votes as Abhisit before him?

Of course these results won't reflect the rest of the country but it is the dynamics here that are interesting to watch.

[Journalist]

^The dodgier, fringe members of the coalition will stick around as long as their snouts are left unimpeded in the trough that was their price for joining. Thats the only reason they signed up in the first place. They are mercenaries.

It is true, but under PPP political problems escalated to the point where there was no feeding at all.

The common understanding I referred to is that they need functioning government to have access to the loot. PPP govt couldn't deliver that, so it's gone.

Will Democrats put a tight lid on corruption? It's a tough balancing act, partners need to be fed while the image must be preserved as well. At some point Chalerm might scream corruption, but that would mean that Democrats have finally reached an understanding with their coalition partners and they will stick together until Abhisit is sure of getting election results his way.

Yes, that is true. Though Newin's bus contract is their holy cow. Its sacrosanct and the price for co-operation.

I guess this must stick in Abhisit's throat, but its either eat it, or lose power, and so its the lesser of the two evils. He has to be pragmatic enough to realise Rome can't be built in a day.

....sorry about the excessive number of cliches above.

[Plus]

On itself the bus project is not a bad idea. I've heard a list objections raised by PTP, some are reasonable questions, others are not.

If it's properly managed there will be clear benefits to Bangkokians, and they wolves won't go hungry, even after it's trimmed to the minimum.

Originally it was meant to finance fresh elections, appetites are a bit lower now.

[Wiresok]

Here Here to a fresh start for 2009.

How about holding an election, how fresh would that be.

Take Abisits stench away.

Lol, Only stench here at the moment is your severely disused intellect, and I can get rid of that quite easily.

Ignored.

Adopt democracy , ditch fascism, then you won't feel ignored.

Just get out of your time warp.

Whats your problem about democracy and free and fair elections?, military silent coups more your bag?

Abhisit was calling for elections, he settled for silent coup, he stinks, not to be trusted, and do you know what he knows he is a phoney.

He knows it because he uses his intellect, I know it because I use my intellect.What do you use in that fascist time warp.

maybe the stench is coming from all his fridges, have you got one in your time warp to.

[ballpoint]

Here Here to a fresh start for 2009.

How about holding an election, how fresh would that be.

Take Abisits stench away.

Lol, Only stench here at the moment is your severely disused intellect, and I can get rid of that quite easily.

Ignored.

Adopt democracy , ditch fascism, then you won't feel ignored.

Just get out of your time warp.

Whats your problem about democracy and free and fair elections?, military silent coups more your bag?

Abhisit was calling for elections, he settled for silent coup, he stinks, not to be trusted, and do you know what he knows he is a phoney.

He knows it because he uses his intellect, I know it because I use my intellect.What do you use in that fascist time warp.

maybe the stench is coming from all his fridges, have you got one in your time warp to.

Rather confusing post. Time warps, fridges and fascism? All a bit surreal for my intellect. And as for free and fair elections? I've been here since Prem was prime minister, can't say I remember any of those ever taking place. It's a bit rich that people who were arguing that the PPP government had no need to call elections, despite its blundering and achieving nothing of note, because they were all fairly elected, have suddenly forgotten that every member of the new government was elected in that very same election.

[Wiresok]

Here Here to a fresh start for 2009.

How about holding an election, how fresh would that be.

Take Abisits stench away.

Lol, Only stench here at the moment is your severely disused intellect, and I can get rid of that quite easily.

Ignored.

Adopt democracy , ditch fascism, then you won't feel ignored.

Just get out of your time warp.

Whats your problem about democracy and free and fair elections?, military silent coups more your bag?

Abhisit was calling for elections, he settled for silent coup, he stinks, not to be trusted, and do you know what he knows he is a phoney.

He knows it because he uses his intellect, I know it because I use my intellect.What do you use in that fascist time warp.

maybe the stench is coming from all his fridges, have you got one in your time warp to.

Free translation of a quote from a man 2000 years ago

"Father forgive him, because he don't know what he's talking about"

As usual, you are wrong about the 2000 year old quote, but I take it you refer to Abhisit.

But here's a quote from 6 months ago.

"The country needs a free and fair election"...remember who said it... yes stinker Abhisit (setteler for silent miltary coups)

During Abhisits toff training at Eton, I wonder if he found " Jeux sans frontier-its a knockout " as hilarious as we did.

I bet commentator stuart halls enduring weekly quote from the show " its the belgians" still gives Abhisit the giggles.

[sriracha john]

Bangkok elections are easier to judge - how many votes can Sam collect on his "love TRT, vote for me" platform? How many votes can Pluem collect here for his anti-PAD stance? Can Paribhat [baribatra] get as many votes as Abhisit [Apirak] before him?

Of course these results won't reflect the rest of the country but it is the dynamics here that are interesting to watch.

The Democrats seem to have surpassed the, "I'm an actor cum singer cum TRT/PPP/PTP MP, make me Governor now." brugade...

Sukhumbhand appears to win Bangkok governor election: exit poll

BANGKOK: -- Democrat Party's MR Sukhumbhand Baribatra is likely to win the Bangkok governor election, according an exit poll announced by Channel 3.

The exit poll carried out by Rajabhat Suan Dusit Institute showed that Sukhumbhand would win about 46.75 per cent of votes, followed by Pheu Thai Party's Yuranan Phamornmontree who would get 26.92 per cent.

The exit poll also found TV celebrity ML Nattakorn Devakula would win about bout 18.50 per cent.

Kaewsant Atibodhi, an independent candidate, would win about 6.37 per cent of votes.

-- The Nation 2009-01-11

Vote totals will be interesting to see when in...

[Koo82]

Doesn't change our mind. This is our true PM who deserves the seat.

Khun Thaksin, we love you!

[jbowman1993]

Doesn't change our mind. This is our true PM who deserves the seat.

Khun Thaksin, we love you!

:D :D

[Sandstone Art]

Doesn't change our mind. This is our true PM who deserves the seat.

Khun Thaksin, we love you!

Those ANTI-Thaksin also LOVE HIM too!

They LOVE to see him serve his JAIL TERM!

[hammered]

Doesn't change our mind. This is our true PM who deserves the seat.

Khun Thaksin, we love you!

The return of Thaksin on his terms now looks unlikely. Even elctoral support seems to be dropping. Newin has shown you can win in Isaan without Thaksin. That is the biggest thing from yesterday. The myth of invincibility at elections has gone. He will now have to fight to keep all of his current parlaimentary supporters onside.

I dont doubt there are many who still like Thaksin but the numbers have dwindled and other issues are becoming more important for many.

[Wiresok]

Doesn't change our mind. This is our true PM who deserves the seat.

Khun Thaksin, we love you!

I often wonder if during Abhisits toff training at eton if he was a trekkie.

Well no question here, " there's life there Jim, but definately not as we know it !!! "

[ballpoint]

Doesn't change our mind. This is our true PM who deserves the seat.

Khun Thaksin, we love you!

I often wonder if during Abhisits toff training at eton if he was a trekkie.

Well no question here, " there's life there Jim, but definately not as we know it !!! "

You seem very fascinated about Abhisits place of education, I can't recall a single post you've made where you haven't brought it up and used the word toff. Why so bitter, was your application to attend rejected?

[sriracha john]

Doesn't change our mind. This is our true PM who deserves the seat.

Khun Thaksin, we love you!

Those ANTI-Thaksin also LOVE HIM too!

They LOVE to see him serve his JAIL TERM!

When you love a child... and want to save them from a bad life...

sometimes you have to punish them when they do wrong...

[endure]

A number of posts have been deleted. Any more flames in this thread will close it and earn the flamer a holiday.

[hammered]

It is intersting that in the space of a few days Abhisit's tenure as PM suddenly looks a lot safer. He has a parliamnetary majority bigger than he could have hoped for now and one that gives leeway for the ministers may niot be able to vote in a no confidence issue. He also gheads a government that could even see more seepage from opposition ranks as the by-election results are analysed and their ramifications known.

He is also helped by PT now needing to go through a period of self examination and reengineering (if they dont fall apart).

He is also helped by the red disarray and backtracking. Now their main demand is the FM go and PAD be prosecuted. They are no longer demanding the government go. Some of their leaders are even lesser in their demands. Khwanchai inspite oppf his ferocious repurtation asks the government to be fair to all (reasonable and also by implication acceptiong government legitimacy) and to prosecute PAD (reasonable). The reds are divided and like the times when the PAD lost momentum they need to have a new issue or a win to keep momentum going. Will the government be so kind to the reds as PPP were to the yellows by giving them ammunition each time they looked like faltering? (unlikely)

In the space of a few days it seems the governmenmt has gained a much strengthened position and much more time. Lets hope this is used to get on with the business of governing.

[Moonrakers]

Will the government be so kind to the reds as PPP were to the yellows by giving them ammunition each time they looked like faltering? (unlikely)

I think that would be quite unlikely.

I almost miss the days of Samak. Just as the yellows appeared to be running out of steam he would do something to add fuel to the boiler. I think that we are in for a much less interesting and entertaining time with Abhisit at the healm, lets hope so.

[Siripon]

Will the government be so kind to the reds as PPP were to the yellows by giving them ammunition each time they looked like faltering? (unlikely)

I think that would be quite unlikely.

I almost miss the days of Samak. Just as the yellows appeared to be running out of steam he would do something to add fuel to the boiler. I think that we are in for a much less interesting and entertaining time with Abhisit at the healm, lets hope so.

Yes, when Sonthi Limtongkun launched his attacks on Thaksin, Thaksin had been in power several years so there were plenty of issues of misrule to criticise him with.

But Aphisit's just begun, there's nothing for the reds to go after apart from the conscription. And what is Thaksin going to talk about if he phones in? Just more bleating about an 'unfair' justice system, boring.

[Samuian]

[

Yes, when Sonthi Limtongkun launched his attacks on Thaksin, Thaksin had been in power several years so there were plenty of issues of misrule to criticise him with.

Because TaxSin did so many unruly, unlawful things, NOT because he was just so long in office, mate!

[Plus]

The reds are divided and like the times when the PAD lost momentum they need to have a new issue...

They rather need a valid reason to exist.

Originally they have been formed with the idea to counteract PAD, now a moot point, obviously.

Thaksin also asked them to show "people power" - no one cares anymore.

Everything else can be handled by PTP in parliament.

The whole red cause lost a lot of steam and even Thaksin doesn't seem to be able to breath in fresh life now.