Are You Worried?

[mynextgig]

My view, and it is only my view, is that GBP will drop significantly over the next few months against the Baht due to its weakness against the dollar and those people living in Thailand and relying on monthly GBP income will get hit hard, the global recession is only just starting to spread to Asia and i believe that a UK and US recovery will start while Asia is still in the midst of possibly a 1997 style depression.

Singapore, being one of the most economically sound Asian nations has just announced that it is officially in recession, the majority of their GDP is generated through exports of electronics and non essential consumer goods to the west and so the effects the downturn in consumer spending from the states and Europe has taken a while to take effect there. Thailand exports more essential goods such as rice and fruit etc which has kept the country in business but also a heavy motor parts industry which is already suffering with reduced working weeks etc.

This is definately a global recession coming in a wave starting from the US across to Europe and down into Asia and is going to be nasty ! The question is how long is it going to last !!!

[BigSnake]

Concern, not really that worried about it. Haven't lost any sleep over it. Just look to do things a little different from day to day.

"DON'T WORRY BE HAPPY"

[LooseCannon]

This is not a time to be in GBPs in my opinion.

From the TimesOnline 21 January 2009......

"Mervyn King paves way to start Bank print presses

Gary Duncan, Economics Editor

The Bank of England's Governor paved the way last night to unleash the weapon of “printing money” in a last-ditch drive to combat the rapidly deepening recession.

Mervyn King braced Britain for a further sharp slump and a “difficult year for all of us”, and laid the groundwork for the Bank to turn to “unconventional measures” as interest rates fall towards zero.

The Governor made clear that the Bank is preparing to turn soon to so-called “quantitative easing” measures - pumping money into the economy by buying bonds from banks, firms and the Treasury - after interest rate cuts to a record low of 1.5 per cent left it short of ammunition........"

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle5556024.ece

Time to dump the pound.

Now is the time to take active steps to preserve the 'value' of what you have got. This you have to do yourself, because nobody else will.

[scotsman]

I feel sorry for Gordon Brown as he is caught in the middle of a what to do to help the uk economy at a time of a very bad world resestion, would people of the uk like him & his government to do nothing like the conservatives? I don't think so, Its a difficult job to make the choices that he has done but to do nothing would have seen total bankruptcy of most of the banking system in the uk. Millions of jobs would be lost and a lot of company's going Bankrupt. This would have led us to the worst Depression since 1930. When most countries in the world are doing the same as Gordon Brown trying to kick start there economy's by injecting large amounts of money into it and trying to save there banking systems so they can get money moving again in the economy. I am not a expert in this matter but to me doing nothing is not the way to go, I know that if the bail outs do work then this resestion will not last as long as it would if we did nothing. Now its down to wait and see if the Governments policy"s work or not only the future will tell us that. I will do what a lot of posters have said tighten your belt and ride it out. Good luck to everyone.

Regards

Scotsman

[mynextgig]

I feel sorry for Gordon Brown as he is caught in the middle of a what to do to help the uk economy at a time of a very bad world resestion, would people of the uk like him & his government to do nothing like the conservatives? I don't think so, Its a difficult job to make the choices that he has done but to do nothing would have seen total bankruptcy of most of the banking system in the uk. Millions of jobs would be lost and a lot of company's going Bankrupt. This would have led us to the worst Depression since 1930. When most countries in the world are doing the same as Gordon Brown trying to kick start there economy's by injecting large amounts of money into it and trying to save there banking systems so they can get money moving again in the economy. I am not a expert in this matter but to me doing nothing is not the way to go, I know that if the bail outs do work then this resestion will not last as long as it would if we did nothing. Now its down to wait and see if the Governments policy"s work or not only the future will tell us that. I will do what a lot of posters have said tighten your belt and ride it out. Good luck to everyone.

Regards

Scotsman

Agree that Gordon Brown is busting his chops trying to turn this around, but lets not forget that he was Chancellor of the Exchequer under Tony Blair and therefore was overseeing all the rules around banking regulation and allowing asset prices to spiral that have got us into this mess in the 1st place so its ironic that he is having to sort his own mess out now.

Lets not forget that this whole thing has been created out of a huge bubble in asset prices, primarily property which has now collapsed around us and spread to the real economy.

House prices in the UK have doubled every 7 years for the last 30 years making everyone think they are rich and therefore borrowing against their properties on the belief that it will last for ever, which is evidentally hasnt.

Gordon Brown watched/let this happen and so he dam_n well should pull his finger out and try and sort it out.

[henryalleman]

I'm an continental European so I don't understand what's meaning 401K, can somebody explaine it to me, because I always like to learn something

[scotsman]

I feel sorry for Gordon Brown as he is caught in the middle of a what to do to help the uk economy at a time of a very bad world resestion, would people of the uk like him & his government to do nothing like the conservatives? I don't think so, Its a difficult job to make the choices that he has done but to do nothing would have seen total bankruptcy of most of the banking system in the uk. Millions of jobs would be lost and a lot of company's going Bankrupt. This would have led us to the worst Depression since 1930. When most countries in the world are doing the same as Gordon Brown trying to kick start there economy's by injecting large amounts of money into it and trying to save there banking systems so they can get money moving again in the economy. I am not a expert in this matter but to me doing nothing is not the way to go, I know that if the bail outs do work then this resestion will not last as long as it would if we did nothing. Now its down to wait and see if the Governments policy"s work or not only the future will tell us that. I will do what a lot of posters have said tighten your belt and ride it out. Good luck to everyone.

Regards

Scotsman

Agree that Gordon Brown is busting his chops trying to turn this around, but lets not forget that he was Chancellor of the Exchequer under Tony Blair and therefore was overseeing all the rules around banking regulation and allowing asset prices to spiral that have got us into this mess in the 1st place so its ironic that he is having to sort his own mess out now.

Lets not forget that this whole thing has been created out of a huge bubble in asset prices, primarily property which has now collapsed around us and spread to the real economy.

House prices in the UK have doubled every 7 years for the last 30 years making everyone think they are rich and therefore borrowing against their properties on the belief that it will last for ever, which is evidentally hasnt.

Gordon Brown watched/let this happen and so he dam_n well should pull his finger out and try and sort it out.

I am not interested in the blame game you may well be right what you say but it looks to me like a lot of country's in the world did the same thing so you have to put it down to Greed & most people liked it when they made shit loads of money in buying & selling property or playing the stock market. With a crystal ball you may know the future but all the Governments in the world don't have that and make the right or wrong decisions at the time lets hope that they all learn from this. The future of banking in the world will have to change and people will have to find other ways to be greedy but I think the cycle of greed will not stop and the World economy's will have Great ups & Great downs.

Regards

Scotsman

[Naam]

I'm an continental European so I don't understand what's meaning 401K, can somebody explaine it to me, because I always like to learn something

tax deferred savings, applies only to Americans.

[GuestHouse]

I'm more worried about missing some of the great opportunities to make money that are around right now.

House prices down - Yep but some real bargains on the market (and dirt cheap borrowing available if you have a good credit rating).

The stock market through the floor - Yep but plenty of stocks and funds have risen by over 20% in the past three months.

Every cloud has a silver lining - There's more than enough gold to this one.

[dhind1]

I agree bargins abound, and I do feel sorry for folks on a fixed income. But, to answer the original post, of course I am worried.

I do not see an end in sight yet for this global recession. I for one am of the opinion that the worst is still to come. Certainly the Americans glossed over it all until the election and inaguration were over and done with. Soon the hard truths will come out.

I am still currently working and supporting my family and hopefully I will continue working.

I wish all posters the best in these troubling times ahead.

[Spee]

When most countries in the world are doing the same as Gordon Brown trying to kick start there economy's by injecting large amounts of money into it and trying to save there banking systems so they can get money moving again in the economy.

Unfortunately, this approach (governments injecting money) has never worked and will not work this time because it does not increase productivity or wealth. All it does is increase the size and scope of government at the expense of the taxpayers. If Brown, Obama and other world leaders want to kick start their respective economies, there are very easy and straightforward remedies available, although they would hardly be politically palettable.

These include:

- Mandate a reduction in the size of the central government by some percentage. Let's start with 25%.

- Mandate a reduction in the amount of government spending by some percentage. Let's start with 25% there too.

- Reduce corporate income taxes by the amount of the mandated reduction in government spending.

- Reduce personal income taxes by the amount of the mandated reduction in government spending.

Governments should be in the business of governing, not in the business of running businesses. Unfortunately Brown's key flaw, which is the same of others of his ilk, is that he is a dyed in the wool, tax, tax, spend, spend, lifelong government bureaucrat. His philosophies and political actions make it difficult for businesses to stay in the UK and operate profitably. They also make it difficult for UK citizens to stay in the UK and operate profitably (i.e., work and save enough money to invest for retirement).

UK and US government pension programs are broke. The US pension program is such a massive Ponzi scheme that it makes Bernie Madoff look like an amateur. It's all just a matter of time before the whole thing folds like a cheap suit.

I don't pretend to understand currency fluctuations and why the British pound is tanking. What I do know is that if the UK government would reduce the size of government and cut taxes, the economy and the value of its currency has only one way to go and that is up.

As for the US and UK expats living in retirement in Thailand, there are only a few things you (and me in time) can count on. Out of sight is out of mind. We will be the first ones to take the hits in further government action (such as eliminating tax free overseas income, reducing payments to expat retirees) and the last ones to get any value from any improvements in government operations.

Just my own wrong opinion ...

PS.

I also agree with Guest House that there are bargains to be had. I'm a firm believer that there is opportunity in failure just as there is opportunity in success. This is why governments shouldn't create failed social enterprises or meddle in the affairs of failing private enterprises. Free markets always have peaks and valleys, periods of booms and busts. With government meddling in down markets, the market can never find what would be its normal free market bottom from which is can rebound. The problems just drag out longer and longer. As GH suggests, there are real estate bargains all over the place and I'm one of the many who hope to find one. Also, there are highly successful and highly profitable companies whose stock is trading well below fair market value, simply because it is getting dragged down with all the mutt stocks. These kinds of stocks are great buying opportunities and I wish I had more free cash to buy some.

[Skid]

Don't feel bad. I had to get a job in the desert over here in the Gulf region cause this was the last place that was booming. Not anymore though. The low oil price is decimating this region.

[flying]

I'm more worried about missing some of the great opportunities to make money that are around right now.

House prices down - Yep but some real bargains on the market (and dirt cheap borrowing available if you have a good credit rating).

The stock market through the floor - Yep but plenty of stocks and funds have risen by over 20% in the past three months.

Every cloud has a silver lining - There's more than enough gold to this one.

Oh I agree every cloud has a silver lining but I think your so wrong on your timing.

You think you see bargains based on your old world memory.

[lannarebirth]

Don't feel bad. I had to get a job in the desert over here in the Gulf region cause this was the last place that was booming. Not anymore though. The low oil price is decimating this region.

Say it ain't so! I heard it was different this time.

[Pakboong]

The historical average duration of a depression is 23 years. The US stock market did not recover from the last depression until 1954. Yes there will be bargains but make sure you have enough time left to cash them in.

[Spee]

The historical average duration of a depression is 23 years.

Fortunately, countries like the US and UK are only in mild recessions, not a severe depression such as was experienced in the 1930's (although the western drive-by media would like all the mindless drones to believe otherwise). Hopefully these governments will not make any more stupid moves such as prefential bailouts which make moving from recession to depression more likely rather than less.

Fortunately, IMHO, much of Thailand's economy can be recession-proof, which can be beneficial to expat retirees. From Wikipedia:

GDP per capita (PPP) $7,900 (2007 est.)

GDP by sector agriculture (11.4%), industry (43.9%), services (44.7%) (2007 est.)

Inflation 2.2% (2007 est.)

Pop below poverty line 10% (2004 est.)

Labour force 36.9 million (2007 est.)

Labour force by occupation agriculture (49%), industry (14%), services (37%) (2000 est.)

Unemployment 1.4% (2007 est.)

Low inflation and plentiful food supplies means the basics for a stable life are there. Thailand has had a growing GDP for several years which is indicative that signs of a recession (whether short or prolonged) are nowhere to be seen. Possibly the only thing that could bring on a recession would be major loss of export markets to leading countries like the US, Japan and China. But even those that isn't going to affect an expat retiree much, if at all.

From what I can gather and assess in my own wrong opinion, the only thing that really presents a risk to expat retirees is not having enough money put away before retiring. Most personal investment plans have taken a beating over the last year, in the range of 35-50% or worse. And the currencies have proven to be capble of fluctuating 25-35% over the course of 12-18 months. These parameters would seem to indicate that one would typically need double the retirement nest that they think they need, in order to withstand fluctuations that are out of our control.

The best retirement advice I've ever received is to plan so that forecasted annual retirement income equals or exceeds present or best expected working income. If economic conditions get better in old age, then there is plenty of extra money. If economic conditions get worse, then even with a little scrimping and downsizing, a pretty decent lifestyle can still be maintained.

However, making decisions to retire to Thailand on minimalist budgets and annual incomes seems very risky, if not downright scary to me. There just isn't enough padding in the cushion to withstand any shocks to the system. I don't mean to be rude to one of the other posters, but retiring to Thailand with only a few million baht is probably not going to make it, regardless of inflation or economic downturn. Even a very marginal "burn rate" of 40k-50k ThB per month isn't going to last too long.

To compound matters, it seems a lot of people want to retire to Thailand at a relatively young age, such as 55 or 56. At 51 myself, I can't even imagine it. First off, I don't have nearly enough money put away to live in my desired lifestyle and support my loved ones in the lifestyle that I want them to have. Second, many people in their 50's still have 10-15 good productive years (or more). Third, and perhaps most importantly, a good chunk of that 10-15 year period could be the peak earning years for one's chosen career field. Why anyone would want to miss out on peak years or work production is a mystery to me. Obviously it's a personal thing, and maybe I will change later, but for now I think I would really miss the personal productivity that comes from working.

I hope to retire in Thailand one day myself, and hope the economic and political conditions will be such that I can do it in a way that allows a very comfortable, leisurely lifestyle, with opportunties to travel without having to worry about pinching pennies. But getting there without counting on bankrupt government sponsored pension schemes, means working well into my 60's and saving as much as I possibly can.

If that means I only get a few years of retirement in before I cash in my chips and move from my big house into the spirit house, then so be it. But at least I will live life as I want to live it. For me, other than being alone, I couldn't imagine anything worse that living in retirement having to count every shekel and not being able to do what I want and go where I want because there isn't enough money.

[DegenFarang]

hel_l no, i saved during the good years. i love it. i hope the whole world goes bankrupt so i can buy condo's for $10,000 and be a billionaire next time the tide rises.

anybody who got themselves deep in debt during the good times deserves what is coming to them, world governments included.

look at china, they are laughing themselves all the way to the bank, buying up whole industries and spending (not borrowing...) hundreds of billions to keep their people employed.

Edited January 25, 2009 by DegenFarang

[loong]

hel_l no, i saved during the good years. i love it. i hope the whole world goes bankrupt so i can buy condo's for $10,000 and be a billionaire next time the tide rises.

anybody who got themselves deep in debt during the good times deserves what is coming to them, world governments included.

look at china, they are laughing themselves all the way to the bank, buying up whole industries and spending (not borrowing...) hundreds of billions to keep their people employed.

Ooh, you're a smug one.....Don't you get it?...... If the whole world goes bankrupt, the money that you saved during the good years will be worth nothing!

Most of the people here have saved during the good times or are working hard towards their retirement in Thailand. The worry is that the western currency could end up worthless and the people that have worked hard for years and paid into a pension fund face the possibility of little or no pension!

anybody who got themselves deep in debt during the good times deserves what is coming to them, world governments included

.

Again, probably most of the people posting on this forum are not deep in debt, but the actions of their governments may make them penniless.

Where are you from? America? If the American government "gets what's coming to them" your savings will be worth zilch. I don't think that you will be so smug if that happened

[shantoon]

Let me go back to the original question. Yes, I am worried about the continuing demise of the pound both for myself living off investment returns and one my UK friends who has seen the value of his OAP reduced by about 25% (and still falling) in the last few months.

He is thinking about moving to the Philippines as the cost of living is about the same as Thailand, but his pension would increase as it is not governed by the fixed rate rule. It seems an anomaly to me that in the Philippines the UK OAP increases at the same rate as increases in the UK, but is fixed for Brits living in Thailand!

It seems we Brits could teach the Thais a thing or two about illogical rules and regulations...

[Jingthing]

My standard of living has been deeply impacted but I am not worried. I probably should be though.

[sorensen]

My standard of living has been deeply impacted but I am not worried. I probably should be though.

You got the right attitude.

[dhind1]

I would say we shoudl all be worried to some degree. Current events will affect everyone. I am still working and agree that working until I am 60 is the looking more and more likely. Just need to keep my job.....

[tso310]

I would say we shoudl all be worried to some degree. Current events will affect everyone. I am still working and agree that working until I am 60 is the looking more and more likely. Just need to keep my job.....

I agree. Try and ride out the storm as best we can.

[davyboy]

If you are worried then try to change your lifestyle now, and don't wait till it is too late!

('Cut your cloth' comes to mind)

Edited January 25, 2009 by davyboy

[loong]

If you are worried then try to change your lifestyle now, and don't wait till it is too late!

('Cut your cloth' comes to mind)

That's not so easy when you are living with a Thai woman!

[davyboy]

If you are worried then try to change your lifestyle now, and don't wait till it is too late!

('Cut your cloth' comes to mind)

That's not so easy when you are living with a Thai woman!

No? I've been living with my Thai wife for the past 15 years!!

Maybe you have got to teach your Thai lady, the facts of life!

[loong]

Maybe you have got to teach your Thai lady, the facts of life!

Not so easy when you are living with a Thai woman

Edited January 25, 2009 by loong

[Scott]

I get a little worried when people say "ride out the storm". That's what a lot of people did in New Orleans. Didn't work out too well.

[davyboy]

Maybe you have got to teach your Thai lady, the facts of life!

Not so easy when you are living with a Thai woman

Well I didn't want to say this, but maybe you should try another country for a lady!

( no insult intended my friend)

[loong]

Maybe you have got to teach your Thai lady, the facts of life!

Not so easy when you are living with a Thai woman

Well I didn't want to say this, but maybe you should try another country for a lady!

( no insult intended my friend)

There's no insult taken, but I think that many members here will attest to the fact that Thai women are experts at wasting money. My lady, same as many other Thai women have absolutely no idea what is going on in the world and just cannot comprehend that their farang partner may be facing difficulties financially. I have tried to explain the situation, that things could get bad, but she doesn't understand. I'm a farang so money just comes. Simple as that!

At least you agree with me by suggesting that I try another country, but I wouldn't want to be too far away from our little 3 year old.