Thai Economic Crash

[Naam]

I agree that here in Asia we are in much better shape to avoid the calamity about to strike the UK. I doubt whether the oil price will stay this low for more than six months or so. But who knows? The speculators pushed it up to 150 USD / barrel and now we're down to 40 USD. Wonder why the price at the pumps only came down to 22 Baht or so. Prices are always very slippery going up but quite sticky on the way down.

the explanation is that the price at the pumps never reflected the price of high flying crude. we had peaks of around 45 Baht for gasoline when crude was priced nearly $150. crude tripled but gasoline only doubled. now crude is back below 50 where it was before the hype and the same goes for gasoline.

[flying]

Anyone else think that the Thai economy is about to crash and burn? No exports, hardly any tourists, an over-valued currency!!! Everything that has made Thailand what it is today has come from foreign money, take that away and what are you left with!!!

I live on an island in the USA

We rely on tourist & it seems we have none or a whole lot less now.

We dont grow real food in great quantity because well...... our gov is stupid

They assume the shipping etc is too much so instead we do the servant routine for tourists hotel workers etc. ( I dont but most do ) We are the greenhouse of the pacific so yes we can grow anything but do we? No we grow some coffee & those cute little mac nuts.

Guess who buys that stuff? Yup tourists. Even though we had shipping strikes when we were young the govt never considered growing enough food to be self sufficient.

What I am trying to say is ....Do I think the Thai economy is going to crash & burn?

Yes because I think the world economy is going to crash & burn & Thailand is better off than most because .............They have food

I think it is going to get pretty simple pretty quick.

What are the guys who sold oil going to eat? Sand...wiches?

You said... Everything that has made Thailand what it is today has come from foreign money, take that away and what are you left with!!!

Seems to me that could be said for a great many countries

Overvalued currency? Good night look at out USD..........hahahahahah

Edited January 24, 2009 by flying

[12DrinkMore]

What I am trying to say is ....Do I think the Thai economy is going to crash & burn?

Yes because I think the world economy is going to crash & burn & Thailand is better off than most because .............They have food

Yep, in abundance enough to export tons and tons and tons of it.

Looks like somtam (there are so many papayas that even the massive combined consumption of Isaan cannot cope with the productive capacity of the trees, they are turning yellow and rotting around here), sticky rice, and fried chicken will be my staple diet into the future.

Add in a couple of bottles of Chang superstrength and happy daze all around.

[jubby]

There's usually A Boom before a bust and walking around our small city its quite clear its Booming to some tune. Everyweek there's an amazing building that wasn't there the week before. I'm not sure but I could swear there are even more motorcycle shops, Car showrooms and opticians etc. I've always thought that there's too much competition for any of these businesses to survive, but not only survive but they multiply.

Can't see too many Thai's really worried either , can't feel any vibes or gloom. maybe my views and observations finely tuned in the west have no place here.

Economic Crash ? All the signs but what do I know. I'm reeling from a triple wammy of a crash and don't know anything anymore.

[12DrinkMore]

I'm not sure but I could swear there are even more motorcycle shops, Car showrooms and opticians etc.

You have hit upon one of the mysteries of Thailand.

There are lots of people riding bikes.

There are lots of people driving cars.

I don't see many people wearing glasses. Why are there so many prominent opticians in Thailand?

[jubby]

One of the Mysteries Indeed. More Opticians than Motorcycle shops even. Huge array of expensive sunglasses, most of which require a prominent 'farang' type nose. and which can be purchased by said Farangs in Europe or the states much cheaper.

makes no sense to me... like a lot of things here.... Its a long shot but maybe its somesort of alternate reality we've found ourselves in.

Anyway, slightly of topic..... lets leave the mysteries and get back to the Gloom and doom ;-)

[mel2surf]

What I am trying to say is ....Do I think the Thai economy is going to crash & burn?

Yes because I think the world economy is going to crash & burn & Thailand is better off than most because .............They have food

Yep, in abundance enough to export tons and tons and tons of it.

Looks like somtam (there are so many papayas that even the massive combined consumption of Isaan cannot cope with the productive capacity of the trees, they are turning yellow and rotting around here), sticky rice, and fried chicken will be my staple diet into the future.

Add in a couple of bottles of Chang superstrength and happy daze all around.

This is a very rational post!

Thais are survivors in the truest sense.

Hopefully if we westerners can adapt,we can all ride out

the storm for a while.

[Jimjim]

These people really couldn't afford to be an expat anyway and most were just 'living the dream' until the inevitable happened. 100's of guys like this squitter their cash away and have to return home after a couple of years here.. The latest economic problem is only gonna speed up the inevitable..

Check out the local notice boards and see all the houses, scooters and trucks for sale...

Oh, please. There have always been those kind of expats in Thailand who live here without really affording it and either end up homeless and crazy on the street or have to go back to their home country. It has happened in times of plenty and times of lean, and that ain't going to change. The thing that would affect them most is a bad exchange rate, and while it is bad, it could be bad whether or not the economy is bad.

[Beardog]

Anyone else think that the Thai economy is about to crash and burn? No exports, hardly any tourists, an over-valued currency!!! Everything that has made Thailand what it is today has come from foreign money, take that away and what are you left with!!!

I live on an island in the USA

We rely on tourist & it seems we have none or a whole lot less now.

We dont grow real food in great quantity because well...... our gov is stupid

They assume the shipping etc is too much so instead we do the servant routine for tourists hotel workers etc. ( I dont but most do ) We are the greenhouse of the pacific so yes we can grow anything but do we? No we grow some coffee & those cute little mac nuts.

Guess who buys that stuff? Yup tourists. Even though we had shipping strikes when we were young the govt never considered growing enough food to be self sufficient.

What I am trying to say is ....Do I think the Thai economy is going to crash & burn?

Yes because I think the world economy is going to crash & burn & Thailand is better off than most because .............They have food

I think it is going to get pretty simple pretty quick.

What are the guys who sold oil going to eat? Sand...wiches?

You said... Everything that has made Thailand what it is today has come from foreign money, take that away and what are you left with!!!

Seems to me that could be said for a great many countries

Overvalued currency? Good night look at out USD..........hahahahahah

Com on now. I used to live in Maui where Lingle was mayor. Hawaiian coffee 1 lb. still fetches $20.00 usd ++ mac nuts way over $10.00 a lb. Thats not to mention the Maui wowee export business(True seriously hampered by the Bush admin). But Pineapples are over 240 baht & watermelon Price of gold. & don't forget bananas.Price of mahi mahi ,tuna ,marlin or any game fish has gone up the 11+ years i was there & my friends tell me it is still going up. I think you got to give the Governor a little more credit. & she never asked for a bridge to nowhere either. She pushed for the crops to change Coffee to get away from sugar cane as Coffee makes a ton. Still love Hawaii & feel bad for my buds in Maui.

Back on track I agree with Mr. Naam - while the economy is going to pinch a little bit to everyone, I don't think a crash is imminent. so the Thais will lose their new truck on a bank loan & the Farang takes a hit no matter how big or how small

Life is going to go on. I myself live way more modest than I ever have. Instead of this years new truck model & a sports car

I have a motorcycle that serves me well.I don't need to go out to restaurants much as the gal I am with is an excellent cook.

Low level farming suits me fine. Just had to readjust my priorities.I still run a couple races in California or Chicago each year-With the money I save on my new truck trade in every year.

I have a house & enjoy preparing to build the more spacious house on the next rai. Life not to bad. Good health is worth way more than anything else.

Only the desperate are going to do drastic measures & crime will probably-most likely go up.........Not only in Thailand but everywhere. Even if the baht takes an abrupt turn it wont help out anyone as inflation will skyrocket worse.

The only way I am jumping off a skyscraper would be a base jump WITH A CHUTE!

[flying]

Com on now. I used to live in Maui where Lingle was mayor. Hawaiian coffee 1 lb. still fetches $20.00 usd ++ mac nuts way over $10.00 a lb. Thats not to mention the Maui wowee export business(True seriously hampered by the Bush admin). But Pineapples are over 240 baht & watermelon Price of gold. & don't forget bananas.Price of mahi mahi ,tuna ,marlin or any game fish has gone up the 11+ years i was there & my friends tell me it is still going up. I think you got to give the Governor a little more credit. & she never asked for a bridge to nowhere either. She pushed for the crops to change Coffee to get away from sugar cane as Coffee makes a ton.

Yep I have lived here longer than the USA has & can tell you when the going gets rough coffee & mac nuts will not taste so great day in & day out.

There in lies the rub........Lingle pushed coffee for the $ not for the citizens welfare

This State should have enough food resources to feed its citizens in the event of shipping stoppages or worse.

Edited January 25, 2009 by flying

[peterrabbit]

the thais are better equipped to survive a recession than westerners...thais have the one thing that is missing in the west , support systems based on family.

I agree. Another key factor is lessoning the impact of the recession for most Thais is that Thailand is still primarily an agricultural society...something like 70-80% of the population are still farmers. Therefore, just about all Thais have immediate family that have or work on farms and they can always go there and at least have access to food and shelter if they loose their city or factory jobs. This is not the case in the Western world...if you loose your job and have no cash income its the food bank or charity kitchen for most.

As the Thais say..."There's always fish in the rivers and rice in the fields."

There is one point you have totally overlooked !

Most poor farmers are relying on income from their children working in factories / tourist trade etc. The parents have taken out loans (with their land as collateral) to buy modern goods TV's, Fridges, Cars etc and they rely on the money coming from their children to make the repayments. What happens when their children loose their jobs and end up going home. With no money to make the repayments and extra mouths to feed how long before they loose everything and then what will happen ? Revolution or anarchy ???

[cclub75]

There is one point you have totally overlooked !

Most poor farmers are relying on income from their children working in factories / tourist trade etc. The parents have taken out loans (with their land as collateral) to buy modern goods TV's, Fridges, Cars etc and they rely on the money coming from their children to make the repayments. What happens when their children loose their jobs and end up going home. With no money to make the repayments and extra mouths to feed how long before they loose everything and then what will happen ? Revolution or anarchy ???

I think you have a freakingly good point here.

Many people make the mistake and understand the "family solidarity" concept with a western bias : everybody is helping everybody (parents, children, etc.).

But it's wrong : how many thai families up country, old, are living with the money provided by only one or 2 children, who are working in the city.

No pensions system for them. At 65 years old, they can't continue their small jobs (soup cart, farming etc.). So they rely totally on their children.

One child loosing his job can have big consequences.

[flying]

That is so unlike any Thai Family I know.

In fact my wife does not know even one family that has leveraged their farm land for TV's & Cars.

Perhaps there may be some truth to the fact that Thai kids help their parents with $$

But it does not change the fact that they all know how to live without.

They do not tend to have a mortgage. Perhaps the young kids have credit but the old gen did not do credit.

In a SHTF scenario they will be fine.

You know the saying the higher you are the further you fall?

[midas]

That is so unlike any Thai Family I know.

In fact my wife does not know even one family that has leveraged their farm land for TV's & Cars.

Perhaps there may be some truth to the fact that Thai kids help their parents with $$

But it does not change the fact that they all know how to live without.

They do not tend to have a mortgage. Perhaps the young kids have credit but the old gen did not do credit.

In a SHTF scenario they will be fine.

You know the saying the higher you are the further you fall?

Hey flying! I think I have so far agreed with all your posts -

but this is the first time I don't agree with you.

The point is there are very many Thai families who don't have that many assets

and they have indeed borrowed quite a lot by their monthly income standards to buy consumer goods.

I really think peterrabbit has made a very valid observation and I am starting

to see the very beginning of the trend that some younger family members are indeed returning

to their homes.

Many Thai families don't have such large pieces of land anyway it may not be that valuable

compared to the latest fancy pick up trucks. They are not wealthy

farmers in the sense that you may be used to.

I am in Isaan at this moment there are huge numbers of parents

that rely on regular contributions from their children-it is definitely

not an isolated thing- it is the " norm " believe me.

And I'm not sure if as you say it will be easy for them to give any of these

things up - because " keeping up with the Jones's " is alive and well

in this part of Thailand also ( which surprised me actually )

Edited January 25, 2009 by midas

[flying]

Hi Midas

Well anything is possible & Im no expert ( My wife is )

But then again she is speaking about up north & perhaps it is different.

I know how they live & trust me there is no Jones to keep up with

[midas]

Hi Midas

Well anything is possible & Im no expert ( My wife is )

But then again she is speaking about up north & perhaps it is different.

I know how they live & trust me there is no Jones to keep up with

Flying I am also speaking about the north - Isaan.

I'm in place called Sisaket - it is predominantly a rice

growing area and they also grow Thai chilli. I'm not sure

of your wife's background but trust me there is indeed

" Jones " to keep up with. I'm talking about when one

family acquires something, then their neighbours

want something new also.

On my many visits to this region I have watched the way

the locals behave. If one person improves their home in some

small way, say having a new front door or having

satellite TV for the first time it becomes a source of absolute

fascination for everyone around and they want to know all about it.

Shortly after you will see the family nearby buying something

new .

One thing I have learnt from living in Thailand for six years is that

Thai people like to show off and impress their friends

and family - and those that don't have much

are probably the worst !

[wernerfreitag]

boring prophecies of future horror which

How about right now and almost everywhere?

British economy in recession, US economy in recession (California insolvent), European economy in recession........

Thailand has enough food to eat and a surplus to sell. There are many countries who don't have enough food.

Thailand will do relatively well. No heating and no shortage of food. A luxury.

In which state are most of you?

* denial “No way can this be true. There must be alternative explanations. This simply can’t be; I would have heard about it.”

* anger “Goddammit! Those bastards at the Fed, in the government, in media have been hiding things from me, lying, and serving their own interests at my expense. How dare they!!!

* bargaining “If I simply change a few things in my life, perhaps that will be sufficient and I won’t have to really change. I’ll use efficient light bulbs, buy a Prius, and save more each year.”

* fear “I’m going to die broke. People will come out of the cities and eat all my food and harm my family. The future is going to be unbearably bleak. I might die. I might starve. I’m not built for a world that mirrors the dystopian nightmare of Mad Max.”

* depression “Crap, we’re screwed. What’s the point? I am powerless to do anything about this. There’s nothing that any of us can do, anyway.”

* acceptance “However we got here is unimportant – it is what it is. Let’s figure out how to navigate the future with the tools and advantages we’ve got, not what we wish we had.”

Hi Jean ,

I like this classification very much , went trough all of it.

But , best thing is to get to " Acceptance". We cannot do a lot , but we can do something about it for protecting our families future.

There are different strategies depending on where your income comes from and how and if you can decide on it or not.

I am in the process of doing something about it, e.g. changed free money into physical gold.

There are a lot of other things people could consider to do.

Good luck

Werner

[12DrinkMore]

I think you have a freakingly good point here.

Many people make the mistake and understand the "family solidarity" concept with a western bias : everybody is helping everybody (parents, children, etc.).

But it's wrong : how many thai families up country, old, are living with the money provided by only one or 2 children, who are working in the city.

No pensions system for them. At 65 years old, they can't continue their small jobs (soup cart, farming etc.). So they rely totally on their children.

One child loosing his job can have big consequences.

Yes, but in Thailand of they lose a job then they are looking for something to do. Motorcycle taxi, noodle stands, laundry, anything. They do not stand back and ask the Sate to provide. And in Thailand the family bias is enormous compared to Farangland, where once can't look after yourself its off to a home, but when the expenses start eating into the "kids inheritance" all hel_l is let loose.

And just wait for it in Farangland. In the UK legislation is now underway to allow (or maybe force) the retirement age lot to continue working. Read between the lines, and I read, "the state can no longer pay for pensions!"

[andyc2006]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

you forgot to mention that the sky will be falling

You may be the type who, if forced to lay out a timeline of 50, or 100, or 200 years and offer an opinion on whether they were "good" or "bad" times, would answer only "good" or "really good."

It's fine that you're an optimist, but there will always be a "worst" of times, just as there'll always be a "best" of times.

Many people believe -- myself included -- that we're just entering into an economic "worst of times" -- probably the worst in 70 years and since these things are cyclic, possibly the worst any of us on this forum will see in our lifetime.

You'd be right to point out that good times will return, one day, but naive to think that economies can be forever "good" or that Thailand specifically could be spared from a true "worst of times" world-wide economy.

I'd wager a pretty penny that the next decade will have: higher unemployment, more famine/hunger, more homelessness, and more economic malaise than the 5 decades before or after it. You may disagree (and you may be correct & I may be wrong), but I'd be curious to hear your candidate for a decade that outdoes it... or maybe you just don't want to speculate on the future, which is fine too. But some of us like to -- it helps us plan accordingly.

[mommysboy]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

you forgot to mention that the sky will be falling

You may be the type who, if forced to lay out a timeline of 50, or 100, or 200 years and offer an opinion on whether they were "good" or "bad" times, would answer only "good" or "really good."

It's fine that you're an optimist, but there will always be a "worst" of times, just as there'll always be a "best" of times.

Many people believe -- myself included -- that we're just entering into an economic "worst of times" -- probably the worst in 70 years and since these things are cyclic, possibly the worst any of us on this forum will see in our lifetime.

You'd be right to point out that good times will return, one day, but naive to think that economies can be forever "good" or that Thailand specifically could be spared from a true "worst of times" world-wide economy.

I'd wager a pretty penny that the next decade will have: higher unemployment, more famine/hunger, more homelessness, and more economic malaise than the 5 decades before or after it. You may disagree (and you may be correct & I may be wrong), but I'd be curious to hear your candidate for a decade that outdoes it... or maybe you just don't want to speculate on the future, which is fine too. But some of us like to -- it helps us plan accordingly.

I agree. It's either going to be very bad or awful.

[Naam]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

you forgot to mention that the sky will be falling

You may be the type who, if forced to lay out a timeline of 50, or 100, or 200 years and offer an opinion on whether they were "good" or "bad" times, would answer only "good" or "really good."

It's fine that you're an optimist, but there will always be a "worst" of times, just as there'll always be a "best" of times.

Many people believe -- myself included -- that we're just entering into an economic "worst of times" -- probably the worst in 70 years and since these things are cyclic, possibly the worst any of us on this forum will see in our lifetime.

You'd be right to point out that good times will return, one day, but naive to think that economies can be forever "good" or that Thailand specifically could be spared from a true "worst of times" world-wide economy.

I'd wager a pretty penny

i wager a pretty penny that you have no evidence for your claim that i am an optimist and guess what... i too believe that we are entering extremely bad economic times. although i believe that better times will return i have never voiced that belief. neither have i ever said that "economies can be forever good" and of course not that Thailand could be specifically spared.

did you perhaps make a mistake and meant another poster or is it some illegal substance that you consume which caused your incoherent posting with its baseless claims?

[Mali1964]

The combination of the pound getting weaker & the Baht getting stronger is why the Brits have lost most, as previous posts have mentioned the dollar is up slightly & the Yen also.

Todays UK rate already down

1.00 British pounds sterling = 46.46 Thai baht

Exchange rate: 46.464365 Rate valid as of: 25/1/2009

[henryalleman]

Nam

would anybody therefore explain why an economic slump would affect expats (who are, i assume, the majority) living on their income generated offshore? will less exports and less tourists affect the lifestyle of expat retirees? will expats who own property be homeless or jump from their balconies if property prices fall? if yes WHY? i have asked that question several times before but instead an answer i read the daily boring prophecies of future horror which are without being backed by conclusive reasons nothing but empty blah-blah.

But if the retiree/expat is living off or suplementing his pension with income from interest or stock market funds I guess they may be feeling the pinch.. I'm still working and my industry hasn't shown any signs of a downturn.. However my stirling based saving are now worth 30% less against the Baht and whereas previously I was earning 7% on my savings I'm now getting 1.8% .. No real affect on my standard of living cos I'm still at work.. But had I been already retired it would have been a big blow to my income.

that's not an answer to the question i asked! please read again. is my wife perhaps right when she claims my english is poor?

I read it again.. Your wife is correct Sir.... Income generated offshore = Pensions, Savings,stocks, bonds etc... Said income would be in a foreign currency and therefore subject to exchange rate fluctuations and interest rate cuts and the movement of the global markets... The people who I would suspect would be least affected by global economic crisis would be expats who have and income source in Thai Baht ie. a rental property or small business..

i might have problems with english but you definitely need not only reading glasses but have to admit your statements are wrong.

reason: pensions, savings, stocks, bonds and offshore income of any kind are not affected by an economic slump of Thailand. offshore interest cuts are not caused or in any way connected to Thailand's economy. exchange rate fluctuations always existed and it's either bad luck or lack of planning if one is invested in a shitty currency only and not connected to a potential slump of Thailand's economy. my questions did not include "effects of the global crisis" but pointed specifically to Thailand and its economy. the movement of global markets might affect the thai economy but my claim is the thai economy crashing (as forecasted) will benefit the retired expat although the various gloom and doom postings seem to indicate the contrary.

please sit down. topic missed. test failed! repeat lesson. next please...

the movement of global markets might affect the thai economy but my claim is the thai economy crashing (as forecasted) will benefit the retired expat although the various gloom and doom postings seem to indicate the contrary.

As usual you are correct. As an retiree with an indexed government pension from back home in EURO, a collapse of the Thai economy will benefit me enormously.

I sold my house 2 years ago, so I have no assets in Thailand anymore, therefore no gloom and doom by me about a collapse of the Thai economy.

[henryalleman]

Humour me here, but I think that Thailand is well positioned to escape the most brutal aspects of the worldwide adjustments. Here's why;

- The high cost of peroleum was making it hard to cover the costs of transporting the agricultural products. Now that fuel costs have fallen and costs for fertilizer (potash prices have fallen significantly) these savings can partially offset the loss of markets due to FX issues. People still have to eat.

- For sure the manufacturing sector is hit hard by the loss of consumption demand in foreign markets, but again, the reduction in the cost of transporting the finished goods and in the costs of the raw materials themselves helps offset some of these losses.

I agree that here in Asia we are in much better shape to avoid the calamity about to strike the UK. I doubt whether the oil price will stay this low for more than six months or so. But who knows? The speculators pushed it up to 150 USD / barrel and now we're down to 40 USD. Wonder why the price at the pumps only came down to 22 Baht or so. Prices are always very slippery going up but quite sticky on the way down.

I do not think we will see the rapid deflation now being reported in the west.

You have to be specific about what is being deflated. In Farangland the major deflation is in the house prices, and overstocks in TVs, white goods, cars are not selling so there will be reductions in prices here. BUT food, services and essential goods are not dropping. CPI inflation in the UK was 3.1% that is certainly not deflation. RPI which includes the cost of housing came down more, but is still not negative.

In Thailand the house prices have not risen to ridiculous levels except in places like Phuket, Pattaya, Hua Hin where a degree of speculation has pushed up the prices. So I cannot see any substantial drop in prices generally over Thailand except in those areas, where there will doubtless be a few either desperate to sell.

Deflation in TVs has certainly occurred, I saw a 42 inch LCD going for under 20,000 Baht yesterday, motorcycles have remained more or less the same price for years. Bought my first Honda Dream 10 years ago for about 43,000 Baht and exactly the same model is for sale for about 46,000 Baht in the shops now. Can't see any room for these prices to come down anyway. But, as in Farangland, there has been a substantial inflation in food and essential goods for several years, I would estimate between 6 to 10%, which is around the same in Farangland for the same sort of goods. Don't forget that people don't buy TV every day, but they are still in the index, next to bread, milk eggs etc., just to hold down the CPI.

I am convinced that there will NOT be any deflation in the stuff we buy every day to live. Neither here nor in the UK, nor in the States, or indeed anywhere. Only things that people do not need to buy will come down in price temporarily. On the contrary especially in the UK with the GBP falling faster than knickers in Pattaya there will be a surge in prices once the imports come to the supermarkets.

And now for the bad news. If there is no deflation in Thailand as we are seeing in the west and expat incomes are getting slashed, it's going to be rough for foreigners that were living close to the edge. If people were relying on those pensions and investment funds to make ends meet, I don't know how they will do it for the next year or two. I've seen my western ROI drop from 4.5% to 2% in the past year.

It is going to EXCEEDINGLY tough for anybody relying on the income from pensions and deposits. I doubt whether the pensions can continue to pay indefinitely. Where on earth are THEY going to get the income? Previously this was most government bonds and the stock market. The stock market is well down and government bonds are not returning a sufficient income. All pension schemes are now massively underfunded in respect of their future commitments and I will not be surprised to see a few go under.

I would guess that quite a few will carry on running down capital as the income won't be enough until the capital is at a critical level and then what?

Things are looking very bleak for a lot of people.

The EU announced for 2009 an deflation of 1.7% in the Euro zone and 1,9% in the EU as a whole, and the food prices are going down between 5 and 10% in Belgium.

But the end year sales where even higher than last year so are the car sales at the annual car show in Brussels. But this was entirely due to the sales to private persons, the car sales to companies dropped by 15%.

[ray23]

Let me tell you what I see in Udon, the only things indicating bad ties at the momet is, car auctions of reposssed. As little as a year ago might happen once every six months. Now it si monthly even and lots to choose from.

The toursit locations were not the only places to see a rise in real estate cost. Farm land with 15 Klm of Udon commonly sale for 300K a Rai on a paved road with power available. That is mopre cost per acre the Central Californias farm land.

New businesses are popping up as others are failing. Costs of imported good from Lotus at least are increasing. That is a Brittish company so does that have something to do with the Pound I don't know, but maybe.

Our hosekeepers village has felt no effect thus far. Her husband is a good craftman with ceramic tile and he stays busy. I'm waiting for those laid off from the factories so I can get some paint work done on my house and few other projects I have in mind. Thus far no labor available.

No emergency requests from the family as of yet.

I have almost dailey protest for money from the Government, does that mean they are hurting or they just want more like most people I dont know. I want more as well.

Those are th factors that will tell me what is going on. I don't trust much about what I read here. You are going to know generally what they want you to know.

Housing bought mine at prices five years ago financed, payment 10K a month. Hey! I got to live somewhere so I see effect there.

None the less Thailand will not escape this as will no other country. Will they weather this out of course as will every other country.

Me I'm trying to get ready for a difficult two years. But I would rather face that here then anywhere else.

[Pakboong]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

you forgot to mention that the sky will be falling

You may be the type who, if forced to lay out a timeline of 50, or 100, or 200 years and offer an opinion on whether they were "good" or "bad" times, would answer only "good" or "really good."

It's fine that you're an optimist, but there will always be a "worst" of times, just as there'll always be a "best" of times.

Many people believe -- myself included -- that we're just entering into an economic "worst of times" -- probably the worst in 70 years and since these things are cyclic, possibly the worst any of us on this forum will see in our lifetime.

You'd be right to point out that good times will return, one day, but naive to think that economies can be forever "good" or that Thailand specifically could be spared from a true "worst of times" world-wide economy.

I'd wager a pretty penny that the next decade will have: higher unemployment, more famine/hunger, more homelessness, and more economic malaise than the 5 decades before or after it. You may disagree (and you may be correct & I may be wrong), but I'd be curious to hear your candidate for a decade that outdoes it... or maybe you just don't want to speculate on the future, which is fine too. But some of us like to -- it helps us plan accordingly.

hear hear

[Naam]

i wager a pretty penny that you have no evidence for your claim that i am an optimist and guess what... i too believe that we are entering extremely bad economic times. although i believe that better times will return i have never voiced that belief. neither have i ever said that "economies can be forever good" and of course not that Thailand could be specifically spared.

did you perhaps make a mistake and meant another poster or is it some illegal substance that you consume which caused your incoherent posting with its baseless claims?

to put things into perspective my rebuttal belongs here.

[ray23]

I concur with Naam there will be a rough times ahead. But it not the first time nor will it be the last time.

This is a very difficult one no doubt about it, but it is normal to see recessions. Sometimes I get the feeling that people actually believe this is the first time this ha happened. They just different lable like the dot com crisis.

Speaking as a retiree now, in my case the State of California and the US Government have to go bankrupt before I will be hit hard. Retired from Stocks investments may be a very different story. But, if we are doing OK now we should be doing OK a year from now. However, that being said I don't think a time to be foolish with money. I'm still waiting for some of those Bangkok lay offs to hit in Udon to get some paint work done. No one available that I know of yet.

If I were still in the work world I would not feel the same way. Losing a job now will have huge effect on people still working.

As to Thailand the people here will sinch their belts just like we are doing in many cases.

Remember this a temporary thing, the world is not ending.

[flying]

This is a very difficult one no doubt about it, but it is normal to see recessions. Sometimes I get the feeling that people actually believe this is the first time this ha happened. They just different lable like the dot com crisis.

I wish I could share your optimism.

I do know I will be allright but I in no way think this is anything at all like the dot com bust.

I do not think this is anything we have seen before.

I also agree the world is not ending as in all done.

But I feel strongly the world we knew is ending & am not sure yet what will be replacing it. On the one hand I know this will not be an easy time. On the other hand I am a wee bit excited to know we are in fact seeing an important historical event unfolding.

[Chaimai]

The combination of the pound getting weaker & the Baht getting stronger is why the Brits have lost most, as previous posts have mentioned the dollar is up slightly & the Yen also.

Todays UK rate already down

1.00 British pounds sterling = 46.46 Thai baht

Exchange rate: 46.464365 Rate valid as of: 25/1/2009

I don't see the Baht getting stronger. The following charts suggest a weakening against the USD (not a great deal) and reflect the demise of GBP. i.e. it is Sterling's weakness vs USD (chart 3), and not any strength in the Baht, that has caused the GBP/THB movement. The only surprise is that the Baht has held up better vs USD than anyone expected.

If anyone actually believed that there was an independent GBP/THB exchange rate please cut out chart 2 and place it over the top of chart 3.

Thai Bahts to 1 USD (invert,data)

Edited January 29, 2009 by Chaimai