Thai Economic Crash

[ray23]

Of course the world will be different. This one didnt work. Might be better might be worse. Dot Com was just an example, not nearly a bad as thi. . But, it did have the same panic effect when it was happening.

[Chaimai]

This is a very difficult one no doubt about it, but it is normal to see recessions. Sometimes I get the feeling that people actually believe this is the first time this ha happened. They just different lable like the dot com crisis.

I wish I could share your optimism.

I do know I will be allright but I in no way think this is anything at all like the dot com bust.

I do not think this is anything we have seen before.

I also agree the world is not ending as in all done.

But I feel strongly the world we knew is ending & am not sure yet what will be replacing it. On the one hand I know this will not be an easy time. On the other hand I am a wee bit excited to know we are in fact seeing an important historical event unfolding.

Some sensible comments now flying (no pun intended ) around here.

There is no doubt that we are facing a severe recession and there is no doubt that we shall come of it - cycles always go round. Economic growth has to 'top out' and recession has to 'bottom out'. I just wish I could say that we were at the bottom.

The memory fades with the years but I was shocked by the pace, monetary volumes and depth of events. Whilst there was some writing on the fall, we seemed to 'turn turtle' in a short space of time. In the UK we went from likely interest rises to combat inflation to a complete U turn. The most worrying thing is that governments, markets and people in the know were inept at dealing with events and this ineptitude only increased the severity of the situation i.e. the Northern Rock debacle could have been avoided and the downward spiral of loss of confidence reduced.

I for one would like to see a period of calm. I would even like to us talk things up (a little bit) and bring about a bit of stability and restore confidence - albeit badly scarred.

Stability is not popular with speculators etc, but I think we need to take the 'gambling' out of the markets so that 'investment' can become a truism again.

In terms of Thailand's economy I think that they will not be so severely affected as the more 'developed' countries. This is not 1997 and the financial sector is not as exposed. The bullsh!t factor remains with property and the Thais are worse than Farangs once somebody has puched up their expectations. Exports will be affected, jobs will be lost but I suspect many Thais will retrench and 'subsist' if necessary - they can do this better than many other nations.

Edited January 29, 2009 by Chaimai

[jubby]

My Views change like the wind but.....

I don't think Thailand will crash, merely stall. Unemployments coming for sure but it doesn't have the same impact it does on our countries ; there not exactly going to become a burden on the state. They'll just go back to the villages for a while, Ain't going to riot or anything, The Government probably doesn't give a 'rats arse' about them anyway. A few more reposessions maybe but there used to that; maybe a simplistic view of things this morning from me

[Naam]

This is a very difficult one no doubt about it, but it is normal to see recessions. Sometimes I get the feeling that people actually believe this is the first time this ha happened. They just different lable like the dot com crisis.

I wish I could share your optimism. I do know I will be allright but I in no way think this is anything at all like the dot com bust.

I do not think this is anything we have seen before.

you have not seen anything like this before because you never were (like me) a little boy growing up in postwar Germany. for what it's worth... today's lifestyle of Thais eeking out a living as bricklayer, plumber, etc. in rural areas would have been considered at that time "lifestyle of the rich and famous".

[flying]

I for one would like to see a period of calm. I would even like to us talk things up (a little bit) and bring about a bit of stability and restore confidence - albeit badly scarred.

Stability is not popular with speculators etc, but I think we need to take the 'gambling' out of the markets so that 'investment' can become a truism again

I agree with you there! I also think this is part of the reason so many here are so mad now. Many I talk to feel they were herded into this. They feel the politicians used a hurry up & sign the paper because if you do not oh boy! You do not even want to know how black it will be.

Yet now we are starting to have a little hind sight & what we are seeing is what we expected. They rushed in & handed out the $$ to those they deemed fit. The same ones that are now constantly popping up in news so incredible it makes us sick. Like the last couple of posts in the In Banks We Trusted thread.

At times I wish we had some Singapore type laws in effect right now right here

I can imagine many financial executives walking around with no hands or worse.

Edited January 29, 2009 by flying

[midas]

I concur with Naam there will be a rough times ahead. But it not the first time nor will it be the last time.

This is a very difficult one no doubt about it, but it is normal to see recessions. Sometimes I get the feeling that people actually believe this is the first time this ha happened. They just different lable like the dot com crisis.

Speaking as a retiree now, in my case the State of California and the US Government have to go bankrupt before I will be hit hard. Retired from Stocks investments may be a very different story. But, if we are doing OK now we should be doing OK a year from now. However, that being said I don't think a time to be foolish with money. I'm still waiting for some of those Bangkok lay offs to hit in Udon to get some paint work done. No one available that I know of yet.

If I were still in the work world I would not feel the same way. Losing a job now will have huge effect on people still working.

As to Thailand the people here will sinch their belts just like we are doing in many cases.

Remember this a temporary thing, the world is not ending.

Perhaps it is a good thing there are optimistic people like you ray

because I think otherwise there would be a complete collapse of

confidence and then we would have anarchy.

But how can you possibly call this a " normal recession " ?

It was 60 years ago the world growth dropped to as low as

0.5% as the IMF is now forecasting and some experts are saying what

we are experiencing now could last for 20+years.........

And why not ? you cannot wish for a recovery - there has to be some

" catalyst " that start things off again and ray please tell me

where and how you think that recovery can start because

i dont see any light at the end of the tunnel while there is so much

debt in the system and it is forecast that 51 million people will

lose their jobs worldwide?

And it is not just the economic fallout - it is the complete deterioration

of moral values and trust which is so different to anything that happened

in the past.

[flying]

you have not seen anything like this before because you never were (like me) a little boy growing up in postwar Germany. for what it's worth... today's lifestyle of Thais eeking out a living as bricklayer, plumber, etc. in rural areas would have been considered at that time "lifestyle of the rich and famous".

I can see that shaping your life quite a bit.

I know it is easy to say now but I bet it served you in a positive way?

I have relatives that use to tell us about the depression & all of them were frugal hard working folks well into the good years. The lessons they learned growing up really stuck with them. I am not saying they were tight fisted.They were generous but they really knew the value of a dollar. Good Work ethic

[flying]

how you think that recovery can start because

i dont see any light at the end of the tunnel

There is always light at the end of the tunnel!

[Naam]

you have not seen anything like this before because you never were (like me) a little boy growing up in postwar Germany. for what it's worth... today's lifestyle of Thais eeking out a living as bricklayer, plumber, etc. in rural areas would have been considered at that time "lifestyle of the rich and famous".

I can see that shaping your life quite a bit.

I know it is easy to say now but I bet it served you in a positive way?

I have relatives that use to tell us about the depression & all of them were frugal hard working folks well into the good years. The lessons they learned growing up really stuck with them. I am not saying they were tight fisted.They were generous but they really knew the value of a dollar. Good Work ethic

for sure it did! i never went overboard although at first glance when looking at my home or how i live most people would think i do. what most of them do not take into consideration is that i live and spend money not only according but much below my means. deep in my heart of hearts i am still a miserable stingy b@stard.

[midas]

Economic outlook just gets worse and worse

The Independent.co.uk

By Sean O'Grady in Davos and Andrew Grice, Political Editor

Thursday, 29 January 2009

The world faces its worst recession since the Second World War, with the UK on course to be bottom of the international growth league among the major advanced economies, according to the latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund.

The British economy will shrink by 2.8 per cent this year, says the IMF, with dire implications for jobs, house prices and the public finances. As recently as November, the IMF forecast a relatively mild downturn of 1.3 per cent in the UK.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF now sees economic activity contracting by around 1.5 per cent in the US, 2 per cent in the eurozone, and 2.5 per cent in Japan. Two of the brightest stars in the economic firmament, China and India, have seen their growth forecasts slashed, to 6.75 per cent and 5 per cent respectively. The global economy as a whole is perilously near to shrinking, with a mere 0.5 per cent growth predicted – the lowest since the 1940s. "We now expect the global economy to come to a virtual halt," said Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist.

The International Labour Organisation said global unemployment and poverty are set for a "dramatic increase" in the coming year. The UN agency added that in a worst-case scenario, recorded unemployment could rise by more than 50 million from the 2007 level to a total of 230 million, or 7.1 per cent of the world's labour force, by the end of 2009.

The scale of economic decline forecast for Britain by the IMF suggests that the jobless figure would exceed three million within a year, surpassing peaks last experienced in the 1980s.

Yesterday, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said Britain faces a £20bn-a-year "double whammy" of tax rises and spending cuts to restore public finances to order – it will take until 2029 for government debt to recede to levels seen before the credit crunch. It warned taxes would rise and spending would be cut whoever wins the next election.

As Gordon Brown spoke of the "deep world recession", the reports added to jitters among Labour MPs. They are starting to express concern that the Government's blizzard of initiatives are cutting little ice with the public and are urging Mr Brown to find "new language" to explain his measures.

The IMF's downbeat view found ready agreement among the elite financiers and economic thinkers gathered at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. George Soros, who "broke the Bank of England" in the ERM crisis of 1992, said the size of the problem facing the world's financial system is "significantly larger than in the 1930s".

Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University, added: "There is nowhere to hide... We have for the first time in decades a global synchronised recession. This is not your traditional minor recession."

The IMF says tax cuts and public spending and borrowing boosts all over the world will be useless unless the financial system is rebooted.

Its managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, warned: "If there's not a restructuring of the banking system, all the money you can put into [monetary and fiscal] stimulus will just go into a black hole."

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

how you think that recovery can start because

i dont see any light at the end of the tunnel

There is always light at the end of the tunnel!

[flying]

Economic outlook just gets worse and worse

The IMF says tax cuts and public spending and borrowing boosts all over the world will be useless unless the financial system is rebooted.

That is some dire news!

That 2nd statement is very scary too because it truly seems they have not a clue.

Any takers on what they think they mean by reboot the financial system?

Because from what they said on the news I thought their idea of a reboot was to throw gobs of cash at it.. Increase public spending..Cut Taxes..restart the credit lending etc etc etc...........Now they say those things are useless unless they reboot ?

They have no idea do they?

Edited January 29, 2009 by flying

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

you have not seen anything like this before because you never were (like me) a little boy growing up in postwar Germany. for what it's worth... today's lifestyle of Thais eeking out a living as bricklayer, plumber, etc. in rural areas would have been considered at that time "lifestyle of the rich and famous".

I can see that shaping your life quite a bit.

I know it is easy to say now but I bet it served you in a positive way?

I have relatives that use to tell us about the depression & all of them were frugal hard working folks well into the good years. The lessons they learned growing up really stuck with them. I am not saying they were tight fisted.They were generous but they really knew the value of a dollar. Good Work ethic

for sure it did! i never went overboard although at first glance when looking at my home or how i live most people would think i do. what most of them do not take into consideration is that i live and spend money not only according but much below my means. deep in my heart of hearts i am still a miserable stingy b@stard.

I think that is true for most people that have worked their butts off to build up a comfortable amount of money. It takes that to get it and the habits you develop making it die hard. That is why you can enjoy life now while others sweat their pensions being enough to get along on. .

[PhuKradung]

I have been here for over 10 years and I saw the downturn in 97 and 98. I agree that many things are for sale at present indicating a cash crunch already for some folks. This will likely worsen as we move along here as I do not see the measures taken so far by stimulating the Thai economy very much. Luckily I am still working, but I am worried about my family hare and my job.

Yes, I'm also in a similar predicament although I have a family rabbit (I find hares too fast to catch at my advanced age).

[ray23]

You know I don't see myself as an optimistic at all. Yes this will be difficult recession. But I don't see the great deression either. I didn't go through it but my parents did with six kids to feed. They made it, so far I don't see this to be as bad as that.

Now the fact is the eight people I spoke of later in in life did well for themselves. It was a very difficult time for them, but there was recovery.

I don't see that as being optomistic I see that as being realisitic. The more prepared you the better.

I not selling sunshine folks. But I not selling doom either, my best guess is we will be in between for a while. So no jumping yet please

You know yesterday a guy in Los Angales lost his job, deep in debt. Answer kill himself, his wife and five children. That is the reaction to say we darn sure need to see. Hey man I have been broke in my life, it can change you just got to work through it. Turn on the news and all you hear is how bad it is OK I got the picture. That picture wonlt do a darn thing to help you. You haev to do that yourself. So maybe you don't have as many goodies, you got a place to live food on the table you can make it. Even that place to live is with family member, You can make it I know I have done it.

The fact is gentlemen you can't do a thing about what the big boys do, but you can do something about what you do. If you step out of the picture and do it for yourself.

This stuff can be overwhelming if you let youself get buried in it. Personally I consider myself very lucky to be where I am to ride this out. It won't be easy for most. It won't be impossible either.

1990 there abouts I wa sitting in texas with one dollar to my name a wife and kid to take care of and a broken down car. Now if I can recover from that, to be sitting in a Thailand with a good retirement. Surely you can find a way to get through this.

Does that really sound like I'm being optomisitc. You can worry about or act on the information setting in front of you.

The guy in L.A. how sad, no reason for that. He could have made it someway even if meant doing menial labor in the fields just like my parents did. There is always a way.

Now me I'm goign to get off my soap box and let everyone go back to worrying about something they can't do anything about.

Me I wish I could have talked to that guy in LA yesterday before he acted.

Edited January 29, 2009 by ray23

[quiksilva]

You know I don't see myself as an optimistic at all. Yes this will be difficult recession. But I don't see the great deression either. I didn't go through it but my parents did with six kids to feed. They made it, so far I don't see this to be as bad as that.

Now the fact is the eight people I spoke of later in in life did well for themselves. It was a very difficult time for them, but there was recovery.

I don't see that as being optomistic I see that as being realisitic. The more prepared you the better.

I not selling sunshine folks. But I not selling doom either, my best guess is we will be in between for a while. So no jumping yet please

You know yesterday a guy in Los Angales lost his job, deep in debt. Answer kill himself, his wife and five children. That is the reaction to say we darn sure need to see. Hey man I have been broke in my life, it can change you just got to work through it. Turn on the news and all you hear is how bad it is OK I got the picture. That picture wonlt do a darn thing to help you. You haev to do that yourself. So maybe you don't have as many goodies, you got a place to live food on the table you can make it. Even that place to live is with family member, You can make it I know I have done it.

The fact is gentlemen you can't do a thing about what the big boys do, but you can do something about what you do. If you step out of the picture and do it for yourself.

This stuff can be overwhelming if you let youself get buried in it. Personally I consider myself very lucky to be where I am to ride this out. It won't be easy for most. It won't be impossible either.

1990 there abouts I wa sitting in texas with one dollar to my name a wife and kid to take care of and a broken down car. Now if I can recover from that, to be sitting in a Thailand with a good retirement. Surely you can find a way to get through this.

Does that really sound like I'm being optomisitc. You can worry about or act on the information setting in front of you.

The guy in L.A. how sad, no reason for that. He could have made it someway even if meant doing menial labor in the fields just like my parents did. There is always a way.

Now me I'm goign to get off my soap box and let everyone go back to worrying about something they can't do anything about.

Me I wish I could have talked to that guy in LA yesterday before he acted.

Nice post, good to see some realism on TV for a change.

[Naam]

Nice post, good to see some realism on TV for a change.

i second that. but Ray's sober evaluation neither matches the forecasts of the professional 'doom&gloomers' nor the expectations of the 'resident experts' who (think they) positioned themselves by building arks and now wait eagerly for the deluge to arrive. add the variety of cryptic messages based on blogspots, youtube clips and last not least from real "i told you so many years ago!" and "read my book!" experts and you get a comprehensive, albeit confusing, menue presented in Thaivisa. bon appétit!

[satiariyan]

Any takers on what they think they mean by reboot the financial system?

My take is to take it literally: they mean to reboot all computers - including backup archives - where debt-records are kept. Certainly a lot of private persons an businesses would then have a lot less of worries and a lot more to spend on consumption, expansion, improvements, and all that sort of stuff that gets wheels spinning. --- And the losers, who might they be? - Would it be much other than that small group of people who may see the number of thousand separators on bank/stock accounts diminish but nevertheless would still have a sufficient nummber of millions to be able to maintain their lifestyle until the end including the gold decorated mahogany coffin.

Yeah, I know: overly optimistic to believe that was what they meant. But wouldn't it be a solution (Surele, there might be a number of low/mid level sharks that would have a net loss, but I'm sure there'd be room for some sort of compensation/rehabilition scheme for those in the otherwise upgoing trend that would follow a worldwide cancellation of ALL debts).

[caulfield2]

Well, an interesting question would be what would happen if all the banks just simultaneously declared bankruptcy?

Of course, that would lead to government bankruptcies (or the FDIC, FSLIC paying out hundreds of millions of dollars to those it insured as a result of the Great Depression).

Which would lead to runaway inflation as countries either raised taxes or printed more money...which would lead to increased unemployment...leading to more layoffs as there wouldn't be enough people to buy the products that are being produced all around the world.

This kind of question comes up all the time with forgiveness of 3rd World debt....but this time it's even trickier, because everyone will fight to protect themselves, as you're seeing with Wall Street and the Congress conspiring together to protect each other, but not the American people/middle class, who end up footing the bill in increased taxes and retirement income/investments/pensions wiped out.

It's going to get uglier before it gets any prettier. Look at all the hullabaloo abou the Thai Elite card. Well, the US government cannot even account (along with the banks) where most of $300 BILLION went, and there's no end in sight, as every industry will be tempted to ask for bailouts/handouts. Now that Bush is gone, I think the GOP will be very obstructionist...they will be against ANY spending increase or stimulus...and watch while Rome burns to the ground, Nero with his fiddle. They don't care, they're all rich...in the end, they can say they stuck to their conservative principles, because they will still be standing with millions in their bank accounts at the end of this fiasco.

Obama was spot on when he said it's not just about economics, but largely about confidence....and how to have confidence when there's literally NOWHERE that your money is safe besides your mattress. Banks won't lend to individuals or each other...everyone is holding on to what they have. I do think if they rewarded those people who acted foolishly (trying to flip houses for a profit...huge credit card bills) by forgiving their debt, then the world will become a VERY interesting place in the future, that's for sure.

But I am sure they mean to "reboot" the economy, specifically the banking industry. To start over with worldwide cooperation/standards/regulations/operating procedures...whatever you want to call them...where people will feel that they could safely put their money into a bank again in Iceland, for example, without fear of it disappearing. The Madoffs of the world are making everyone hyper-cautious about any type of investment now, people are afraid to put their money anywhere.

Edited January 29, 2009 by caulfield2

[midas]

Obama was spot on when he said it's not just about economics, but largely about confidence....and how to have confidence when there's literally NOWHERE that your money is safe besides your mattress. Banks won't lend to individuals or each other...everyone is holding on to what they have. I do think if they rewarded those people who acted foolishly (trying to flip houses for a profit...huge credit card bills) by forgiving their debt, then the world will become a VERY interesting place in the future, that's for sure.

exactly - its not a question of being an optimist or if you can " get through it " - no recovery can ever

take place until people learn to trust the banks again ..........and how long will that take ?

[satiariyan]

Well, an interesting question would be what would happen if all the banks just simultaneously declared bankruptcy?

Assumed this was a reply to my naive question of what might happen if ALL debt records vanished instantly worldwide - wouldn't this imply that ALL banks are lending out more money than they have? Certainly, I'm happy, I've never trusted banks if that's the situation.

[satiariyan]

.. - no recovery can ever take place until people learn to trust the banks again ..

Why not?

[jdrake72]

Anyone else think that the Thai economy is about to crash and burn? No exports, hardly any tourists, an over-valued currency!!! Everything that has made Thailand what it is today has come from foreign money, take that away and what are you left with!!!

YES. I don't think anyone in Thailand will have experienced anything like what is now beginning to happen, and given it's developing status there is likely to be real hardship.

As the first poster explained, Thailand is highly dependent on exports which have slumped, it was also experiencing a consumer spending boom somewhat linked to the rapidly deteriorating property market.

In truth I'm not sure things like this can be stopped, but earlier action on the bt may have mitigated effects.

As it is, fasten your safety belts.

since months, if not years, the apocalyptic riders are galloping in this forum painting horror pictures on the wall. slogans like "the pain, the suffering, hardship, beware, fasten seat belts" are used on a daily basis in connection with a (i admit highly likely) economic downturn in Thailand. i agree that might apply to expats who work or run a business here. it is also clear that the majority of expats who have forex income are suffering due to the strong Baht, but that is besides the point and has nothing to do with Thailands economy.

would anybody therefore explain why an economic slump would affect expats (who are, i assume, the majority) living on their income generated offshore? will less exports and less tourists affect the lifestyle of expat retirees? will expats who own property be homeless or jump from their balconies if property prices fall? if yes WHY? i have asked that question several times before but instead an answer i read the daily boring prophecies of future horror which are without being backed by conclusive reasons nothing but empty blah-blah.

I think there could be different reasons.

I try to think about ones.

-Who has business here in Thailand is highly affected by falling orders due to the mightly baht compared to most other currencies like indian rupiah, indonesia rupiah, korean won, philippines peso which have fallen sharply (not the chinese currency, but China is 30-60% cheaper anyway than Thailand in their same products).

-Who has an income abroad ,specially in pound is affected now and maybe is waiting or even hoping for a downturn which would carry the baht down (wishful thinking or not it is).

-Who has already invested here in properties fears a ecomomic slump because in his dreams property prices would have risen 200-300-400% or only God knows how much, to be self made millonaire and also low tourism is a problem because this folk hoped there would be millions of tourists aucting to rent their condos on the beach or in Bangkok. :-) This people are confortable with a strong baht, but not too strong to scary tourists away..to Cambodia or Vietnam or Laos.

-Last category...some people were here before 1997 and in some way have seen what terrible was the asian crisis which started with the "bye bye" to the long THB peg. It is very normal for this folk to be scared, spcially if they have been economically affected (investments in Thailand ) at that time. For many years the Govt had stubbornly insisted in keeping the rate pegged and later the unavoidable occurred,

Now Thailand has still a huge ammount of reserves and in honor of the truth, considering the amazing ammount of mess in this country of the past months, the situation doesn t look so drammatic like in other countries YET//// YET...

But Mr. Naam we know that Thailand is like a timing bomb, we humans have an expectancy life of 72 (in Thailand)-80-90.... but we all have to die one day, so, If you understand what I mean, I cannot be more specific, one day there could be a disaster which will carry down the economy, the baht and just about everything..... that's why I say YET... I am thinking about the foreseeable future, not just the next months. In the past months we have had an APPETIZER of what could happen here,....that s what makes me (and many) scary about the future of this country.

Edited January 29, 2009 by jdrake72

[cclub75]

Guess what ?

GDP shrank 3,5 % in the last quarter of 2008 !

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/01/29...rst-estimation/

[mommysboy]

Guess what ?

GDP shrank 3,5 % in the last quarter of 2008 !

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/01/29...rst-estimation/

YES. Time and time basic again facts are missed. The economy is going to crash it's simply lagging behind the West.

It's really whether it's going to translate to real hardship, in terms of starvation (I doubt it) or poor health care (I expect so).

All those who go on about the rural idyll, who are you kidding?? Thailand bought in to the big dream through revolving credit ages ago and has it's own asset bubble to come to terms with. And why do you think they wanted to escape the feudal lifestyle in the first place?

[waza]

I thing the biggest worry is the credible predition of the loss of 1,000,000 jobs. They cant all go rice farming

[Naam]

I thing the biggest worry is the credible predition of the loss of 1,000,000 jobs. They cant all go rice farming

they did for some years after 1997.

[Bizz]

i wager a pretty penny that you have no evidence for your claim that i am an optimist and guess what... i too believe that we are entering extremely bad economic times. although i believe that better times will return i have never voiced that belief. neither have i ever said that "economies can be forever good" and of course not that Thailand could be specifically spared.

did you perhaps make a mistake and meant another poster or is it some illegal substance that you consume which caused your incoherent posting with its baseless claims?

to put things into perspective my rebuttal belongs here.

I thing the biggest worry is the credible predition of the loss of 1,000,000 jobs. They cant all go rice farming

they did for some years after 1997.

Midnight Notes'

Chronology of Asian and Oceanian

Workers' Struggles

1995-1997

The Asian/Oceanian Crisis of 1997 has been extensively analyzed by the business media, the research teams of the IMF and U.S. government officials. Their consensus is that it is a crisis was caused by the weak, "immature" banking systems of the "Asian Tigers." Bankers simply made too many bad loans to their cronies. Their solution is simple: let the IMF take over the Asian banks and finance ministries to ensure transparency and efficiency in the future.

But whenever the global media establishment points to monetary faults in this period, they are invariably referring beyond controllable transgressions of bankers, speculators and stock jobbers to the original sin of capitalism: class struggle. The ultimate source of all crisis is the reduction of profits by working class action. And one need not go far to see that this original sin was flourishing in Thailand, Indonesia, East Timor and especially South Korea, where millions of workers struck against "neoliberalism" in December 1996 and January 1997 before the grim gaze of a nuclear-armed U.S. occupation army.

Here you are Naam they were all growing rise

[Naam]

Here you are Naam they were all growing rise

the Thais who lost their jobs did grow rice. can't judge Korea or East Timor. i visited only Thailand in the years before and after the crisis.

[flying]

You know I don't see myself as an optimistic at all. Yes this will be difficult recession. But I don't see the great deression either.

The guy in L.A. how sad, no reason for that. He could have made it someway even if meant doing menial labor in the fields just like my parents did. There is always a way.

I am not a optimist but I am a realist.

I am objective & tend not to allow myself to be subjected.

That is why I am mad

I always have hope that is the same as 99.9% of folks who put one foot in front of the other day in & day out no matter what the weather.

That guy in LA was the 3rd one already in California this month. Suicide due to loss of income. Sounds insane to you & I but who knows what came before that final straw. It is terrible he thought he had the right to end others time too though. I never understood jumpers but they come out of the wood work in times like these.

Myself... like I said Im just mad as are many I speak with.