Thai Economic Crash

[12DrinkMore]

Unless I misunderstood something it would appear that Thailand is looking at deflation now, The finance minister yesterday asked he stores to reduce their prices. It would seem to me that will contribute to deflation. So what is the result of as economy in deflation? Besides lower prices

Look up deflationary spirals to find out what deflation can mean.

In the case of Thailand and a government request to "lower prices" is possibly something than can only take place in Thailand. I mean, can you imagine Brown or Obamah asking shopkeepers to reduce prices after they have cited deflation as the galaxian enemy number 1, and justified spending billions and trillions of whatevers in trying to fight it?

What the Thai goverment is doing seems to me to a a good idea. Reduce the price of basic food items so that people can afford them, it will reduce the profits of the large companies, but this is Thailand and I honestly believe that the owners are well prepared to take this step to help out their "brothers and sisters". It is this common sense and a social responsibility that is utterly lacking in the UK and other western countries, particularly in a greedy and selfish banking industry and incompetent governments.

This is another reason why I believe that Asia will not be suffering as badly as the westerners will, and why I see the future economic success of the globe coming out of Asia and not from the Farang countries.

[jdrake72]

Naams on form as usual, kind of like the conductor leading the band on SS Titanic And the band played on! Let's hear it for the Naamstar!

you misinterprete my intentions oh honourable and brave Knight. in my [not so] opinion i don't underestimate the crisis we are facing and neither do i underestimate its potential consequences. what i tried is drawing attention in an exaggerated way to the exaggerations of a bunch of gloom&doomers who think the sky will be falling.

but you know which is your problem ? Since maybe you have a good pension and the crisis doesn t affect you particulary, you are not able to see what is happening around you.

The sky is actually falling, Thai exports are crashing ,completely crashing (watch january data , just wait !), companies are ready to leave dozens if not hundreds of thousands of people out and i am afraid these guys will not go back to their ricefields like in 1997 since export of rice in Thailand is dropping like a stone, between a 20% and 30% down (that for the cheap rice of Vietnam and Philippines and India will resume strong production soon), an authentic disaster. Where will these guys go ?

They don t have a pension like you have, they have no money in the bank .....tell me...

there might no be crisis for you, but there is for millions and it will be worse and worse....

You keep posting the indicators of Thailand for 2008, but that s OVER, it is HISTORY, what it matters know are the CURRENT indicators, one worse after other and there will be worse and worse in the next months. There is nothing pointing at a recovery, nothing, all the opposite.

You though we were too negative few months ago, but December/January data was terrible as we negative prospected and next one will be worse. Just wait and see. It is not only Thailand, yes, I know, but this is a Thailand forum, so we are talking about the current situation here which is not better than other countries' as somebody have tried to tell us until now.

what is your point JDrake? like a bunch of others you misinterprete my opinions as you must have been too lazy to read the whole thread. from the beginning i focussed on "how will the predicted crisis in Thailand affect us farang retirees?"

are you telling me that the poor people will slit my throat to get to my (extremely low} pension? will they occupy my home and kick me and my wife out? i don't "keep on" posting indicators for 2008. i posted facts for 2008. undeniable and verifiable facts. what you post are assumptions and forecasts what will happen in the future. no facts, nothing to verify except "there will be... there will be... there will be...". seems you are too one of the esteemed prophets and seers who knows what the future holds for us. if that is the case tell us what -in your opinion- are the implications for us farangs? will the sky fall for us?

nearly forgot to mention. read my posting #227!

ray23: You know the one question that stands out to me not only in Thailand but everywhere is have we hit bottom yet?

Naam: all indications point to a clear "no!"

ok, but again.... 2008 is PAST ....look at the INDICATORS (not forecasts !) of the past 3 months... ! Facts , no my fears .

How do they look ?

Exports.... Tourism.... DEBTS.... Cars Sells...(did you see January cars sells indicators ?? Jesus ..!)

Month by month, indicator by indicator , the FACTS look more and more terrible...

and we are far from the worse...(that s my fear, based not only in nightmares, but in current reality)...and you seem to agree to this point too....

After Songkraan I think most of ordinary Thai people will feel the pinch of the crisis very badly on their skins..

Sorry about the point I missed on you referring mainly to retirees in Thailand...well, you retirees will be less affected than anybody else, there is no doubt of it, you have your more or less fix income, also less tourism in your Pattaya could mean less inflation for restaurants, estates, rents, etc...so in some ways it could even benefit you... yes, for retirees it will not the end of the world, in fact for you it might have been worse last year when prices were jumping up for the high oil prices.

Myself, like exporter in Asia, I started to feel the impact of the crisis suddenly , at once (not slow slides at all, after an excellent November) after the airport seizures and some tons of orders cancelled. Since than the "coma profundis"...

unfortunatelly,I don t share your guys' luck to be a retiree yet, i am in my middle 30s and I guess the current situation will force to change my plans to retire in my early 40s to .... ??? I don t know...

Edited February 18, 2009 by jdrake72

[Naam]

ray23: You know the one question that stands out to me not only in Thailand but everywhere is have we hit bottom yet?

Naam: all indications point to a clear "no!"

Sorry about the point I missed on you referring mainly to retirees in Thailand...well, you retirees will be less affected than anybody else, there is no doubt of it, you have your more or less fix income, also less tourism in your Pattaya could mean less inflation for restaurants, estates, rents, etc...so in some ways it could even benefit you... yes, for retirees it will not the end of the world, in fact for you it might have been worse last year when prices were jumping up for the high oil prices.

Myself, like exporter in Asia, I started to feel the impact of the crisis suddenly , at once (not slow slides at all, after an excellent November) after the airport seizures and some tons of orders cancelled. Since than the "coma profundis"...

unfortunatelly,I don t share your guys' luck to be a retiree yet, i am in my middle 30s and I guess the current situation will force to change my plans to retire in my early 40s to .... ??? I don t know...

different situations cause different perspectives because the effects on the individuals are different. your views based on the experience with your business must be accepted. there is no doubt about that.

[ray23]

First let me say I am no belitteling yor current business problems. But reitrement and luck are not the same thing. We experienced hard times as well in our lives. Retirement come from years of putting up with crap, and doing things your really don't want to do, to get it.

Good point this year I have bought a few toys, last year I would not even considered it. I hope all you business people survive this But if you don' t get up dust yourself off and do it again. I can't even begin to tell you how many times I failed in life to get to this retirement.

We all get knocked down it's a part of life.

Naam your statement as to bottom is really coming home this week.

The safety net I have is my retirement is with CalPers, they use a ten year plan should be enough to ride his out. But not all retirements are safe at the moment. 401K's certainly are not doing as well as they did three years ago.

The reduction shop keepers prices has been modified if I undertand correctly it only apply to the 2K vouchers being handed out which may actually hit he street in the next month or so. The only two things etched in stone that I see so far is they are going to do it and they are not mailing them. It would seem they will drop that one the local governments. Wonder what he processing fee will be for the clerk handing them out?

This part I'm not sure it will only apply to essential items can't use it a a part of buying a TV for example. much like food stamp in the states. But food samps are an ongoing plan not a one time shot.

Government is buying Farmers debt in some form. Good idea we need food produced. However, it seems to me like I have seen something about this every year that I have been here. So maybe a new lable to an etablished practise.

You know not just here but everywhere they are going to be abusers and I have yet to see any safe guards to stop it.

Think about it could I send my wife down there for one of those 2K vouchers probably she certainly qualifies she has traceable income.

Our housekeeper makes 85K a year it''s all cash depending on what he husband makes she qaulifies.

He is a carftsman a does prety well so maybe not, if his income is reported.

Thet are very few controls here.

I have more freedom here then I have ever had in my life, so Im not complaining. But if governments are going to pay that have to get money to do it. But it has to get past the clerks pocket to that. How did they do it with the traffic cops split the money with them. That's one approach.

GM plans to lay off 47K workers now that is not just in the states 900 or so are here.

When I find that worker who will paint my house for dailey wage then I know that things are bad so far it hasn't happened in Udon, but it will. I'm saving that one for a local who needs it no a contractor who will over charge for his work.

My plan is to help indviduals where I can I can't do much about Thailand but I can find things for a person to do an ease some of the burden on tha family. Best I can do, with money available.

The thing that amazes me is how long people have been talking about this and the time Thailand actually saw it and acted.

Just now seing the baht really reacting. The bad new now they are talking about it being a safe haven for cash. Apparenly they know very little about my wonderful home country.

The one aspect that will hurt them the worst has not went away. The demonstrations, it not just the red shirts someone is doing almost dailey. Not going to happen but the best thing they could do in this country is take the word Thaksin out of the vocabulary.

Everywhere is a mess but this country has it's own unique problems. The current PM look strong but he ha not really been tested and I don't think that is to far away. The government held it's own here in Udon lat weekend. But there was a huge show of force. They can hold the government house if they don't back down to politics. Question is are they willing to take the heat for harming violators they were not willing to do so with the PAD. To stop them someone is going to harmed.

so lots of things going on here that effect the ecocnomy.

[henryalleman]

This is another reason why I believe that Asia will not be suffering as badly as the westerners will, and why I see the future economic success of the globe coming out of Asia and not from the Farang countries.

Asian will not suffer as bad as the westerners? Are not aware of the lay offs in China, Korea, Japan

Export is falling dramaticly in those countries also. NOT ANY COUNTRY WILL ESCAPE THE ECONOMIC CRISIS

[ray23]

Well I think we saw a move yesterday in the US that might actual help. 75 billion to individual homeowners to help them stay in their homes. That could trickle back to the banks as to the toxic loans. But it won't happen overnight

[Mali1964]

This is another reason why I believe that Asia will not be suffering as badly as the westerners will, and why I see the future economic success of the globe coming out of Asia and not from the Farang countries.

Asian will not suffer as bad as the westerners? Are not aware of the lay offs in China, Korea, Japan

Export is falling dramaticly in those countries also. NOT ANY COUNTRY WILL ESCAPE THE ECONOMIC CRISIS

To Lighten this topic a little thought I'd add a little joke

Well I told my 2 Step Daughters papa his now Pissed an Broke, so in true Asian style they brought me this home from school so I can at least still have a beer.

[LivinLOS]

Well I think we saw a move yesterday in the US that might actual help. 75 billion to individual homeowners to help them stay in their homes. That could trickle back to the banks as to the toxic loans. But it won't happen overnight

Last night I listen to the housing plan.. All I can say is ****ing sickening !!

So now if you over borrow, lie on your loan application, take on a house you cant afford, speculate on the market and gamble that interest rates will stay low or drop.. Then you get bailed out by the taxman (read eveyone paying taxes.. The very people who didnt do all this)..

Plus the priority for who get the most include 'high debt load' people !! So the most irresponsible are the ones with the highest help ratio.

So the smart, the frugal, those that didnt gamble.. who live within thier means, who bought a house they could make the payments on with a fixed 30 year mortgage are going to have increase tax burdens to support those feckless gamblers who wanted to live beyond their means !!! I mean what the mother **** !! This is free market economics ?? This is encouraging smart choices. Jesus wept.

Add in that people who paid thier taxes properly in some states are now not going to get thier tax refunds, as the state is under water.. Again punish those that do the right thing..

Honestly the whole thing makes me raging mad and I am not involved.. If it was my tax dollars paying this, to bail out these ****ing idiots who played the casino game and lost.. I would be marching in the street with a bullhorn.

Punish the wise and give thier money to the fools... What a ****ing world.

[quiksilva]

I thought it was targeting those who have fallen into negative equity? Where the value of their homes had fallen below the value of their loans, not those who had bitten off more than they could chew?

[midas]

Does anyone know the full story about this Thai stimulus package- i.e. 2000 baht meant to go to

Thai's earning less than 15,000 baht per month so they can become temporary shopaholichs ?

I'm asking this because the Thai government seems to be attaching so much importance to it?

When chatting to a friendly girl this morning in a shop, I jokingly said to her what she plans to

spend the 2000 baht on? But rather strangely she told me she or her family were told

when they went to the government office in her province they were not entitled to it ?

She said her parents in Isaan were poor but the government told them because members of

the family are working ( earning well below 15,00 per month ) they were not entitled ?

But I read something that that payment will go to

9 million Thai's? I know there are not 9 million unemployed Thai's-surely ?

Edited February 19, 2009 by midas

[Mali1964]

Does anyone know the full story about this Thai stimulus package- i.e. 2000 baht meant to go to

Thai's earning less than 15,000 baht per month so they can become temporary shopaholichs ?

I'm asking this because the Thai government seems to be attaching so much importance to it?

When chatting to a friendly girl this morning in a shop, I jokingly said to her what she plans to

spend the 2000 baht on? But rather strangely she told me she or her family were told

when they went to the government office in her province they were not entitled to it ?

She said her parents in Isaan were poor but the government told them because members of

the family are working ( earning well below 15,00 per month ) they were not entitled ?

But I read something that that payment will go to

9 million Thai's? I know there are not 9 million unemployed Thai's-surely ?

From what I understand you qualify if your in a tax paying job or have been in a tax paying job in recent years,but I did read somewhere that you can qualify if you register with the Social Security Office, this puts most Issarn people off as they worry about any Tax issue's etc that could be thrown their way as most issarn people don't earn enough to pay tax.

When I mention the T word with my family I just get blank looks all round I suppose when the average farmer is making 12,000 baht profit a year on his hard worked for Rice the last thing he cares/thinks of is Tax.

From what I'm hearing here no one is rushing out to where ever this SSO is.

[ray23]

Unemployment in Thailand expected to be worse then 97 crash:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/13...ses-will-worsen

[thaihome]

Well I think we saw a move yesterday in the US that might actual help. 75 billion to individual homeowners to help them stay in their homes. That could trickle back to the banks as to the toxic loans. But it won't happen overnight

Last night I listen to the housing plan.. All I can say is ****ing sickening !!

So now if you over borrow, lie on your loan application, take on a house you cant afford, speculate on the market and gamble that interest rates will stay low or drop.. Then you get bailed out by the taxman (read eveyone paying taxes.. The very people who didnt do all this)..

Plus the priority for who get the most include 'high debt load' people !! So the most irresponsible are the ones with the highest help ratio.

So the smart, the frugal, those that didnt gamble.. who live within thier means, who bought a house they could make the payments on with a fixed 30 year mortgage are going to have increase tax burdens to support those feckless gamblers who wanted to live beyond their means !!! I mean what the mother **** !! This is free market economics ?? This is encouraging smart choices. Jesus wept.

Add in that people who paid thier taxes properly in some states are now not going to get thier tax refunds, as the state is under water.. Again punish those that do the right thing..

Honestly the whole thing makes me raging mad and I am not involved.. If it was my tax dollars paying this, to bail out these ****ing idiots who played the casino game and lost.. I would be marching in the street with a bullhorn.

Punish the wise and give thier money to the fools... What a ****ing world.

From what I understand, the people working on this are adamant there will be no pay downs on principal. Of course they couldn't explain how they were going to help the people that have gone negative due to dropping values without a pay down, but who knows how this will play out. I do understand that several big mortgage companies have suspended foreclosures to see how this works out.

I have to say, a lot of your rant sounds just like complaints when the farmers needed a bailout. And when the S&L went bust, and ….

TH

[think_too_mut]

Unemployment in Thailand expected to be worse then 97 crash:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/13...ses-will-worsen

The Economist still has Thai unemployment rate at 1.1%.

Couriously, the article does not tell any figures.

The Economist may be using "local standards" when defining unemployment, at least they have some idea.

That Thai official has no clue at all.

[thaihome]

...That Thai official has no clue at all.

I'm genuinely curious why you think this. Hopefully you can give some sort of objective fact based answer.

TH

[think_too_mut]

...That Thai official has no clue at all.

I'm genuinely curious why you think this. Hopefully you can give some sort of objective fact based answer.

TH

Did he tell any numbers?

You know only what you can express in numbers. No numbers, you don't know it. He should know that.

[Naam]

The Economist still has Thai unemployment rate at 1.1%. Couriously, the article does not tell any figures.

The Economist may be using "local standards" when defining unemployment, at least they have some idea. That Thai official has no clue at all.

the economists of "The Economist" forecasted ten years ago an oil price of $2.-/barrel by 2001, latest 2002 that's when (after 20 years of reading) i stopped reading "The Economist"

[henryalleman]

I think the cat will come out of the bag after the Asean meeting this weekend.

Don't ask me why its just a gut feeling, and I seldom wrong about it(gut feeling I mean)

[think_too_mut]

The Economist still has Thai unemployment rate at 1.1%. Couriously, the article does not tell any figures.

The Economist may be using "local standards" when defining unemployment, at least they have some idea. That Thai official has no clue at all.

the economists of "The Economist" forecasted ten years ago an oil price of $2.-/barrel by 2001, latest 2002 that's when (after 20 years of reading) i stopped reading "The Economist"

You might be remembering this article

[ray23]

Well something is up the baht has depreciated more in the last few days, then I have seen in a very long time. In such a short time frame.

[Naam]

The Economist still has Thai unemployment rate at 1.1%. Couriously, the article does not tell any figures.

The Economist may be using "local standards" when defining unemployment, at least they have some idea. That Thai official has no clue at all.

the economists of "The Economist" forecasted ten years ago an oil price of $2.-/barrel by 2001, latest 2002 that's when (after 20 years of reading) i stopped reading "The Economist"

You might be remembering this article

there was another article a few months later with references to an interview with former (at that time long disgraced) saudi oil minister Ahmed Zaki al-Yamani that lowered the forecast to 2.00-2.50

[Naam]

Well something is up the baht has depreciated more in the last few days, then I have seen in a very long time. In such a short time frame.

i haven't realized a depreciation except vs. USD.

[think_too_mut]

The Economist still has Thai unemployment rate at 1.1%. Couriously, the article does not tell any figures.

The Economist may be using "local standards" when defining unemployment, at least they have some idea. That Thai official has no clue at all.

the economists of "The Economist" forecasted ten years ago an oil price of $2.-/barrel by 2001, latest 2002 that's when (after 20 years of reading) i stopped reading "The Economist"

You might be remembering this article

there was another article a few months later with references to an interview with former (at that time long disgraced) saudi oil minister Ahmed Zaki al-Yamani that lowered the forecast to 2.00-2.50

There was a quote (in The Economist) by some Saudi sheik who said - "the Stone age did not end due to the lack of stones. The Oil age won't end due to lack of the oil"

[ray23]

Sorry Naam should have said dollar.

I dont really have any other currencies, so if i'm following this right not reflecting in EURo, Pound. Aussie Dollar?

They looked as if they made some gains today, but as I said not really watching closely.

[12DrinkMore]

Well I told my 2 Step Daughters papa his now Pissed an Broke, so in true Asian style they brought me this home from school so I can at least still have a beer.

Hey, where did you buy that great looking beer bottle jacket? I could do with a couple of those.

[Mali1964]

Well I told my 2 Step Daughters papa his now Pissed an Broke, so in true Asian style they brought me this home from school so I can at least still have a beer.

Hey, where did you buy that great looking beer bottle jacket? I could do with a couple of those.

Well its funny you say that I got it in the UK years ago with a cool bag set from a store somewhere? I've had it here 2 years it keeps my Leo as cold as the fridge for up to an hour also as that handy little strap I sling it from lol. I have been wanting to find someone to copy it here to sell them but the wife just rolls her eye's when I ask where to start.

It does get the attention of the locals so I'm not sure if it could be made cheap enough to sell in a large quantity it gets thrown in the washing M/C the lot & its still as new.

Any one fancy going into business lol, time's are hard as this thread suggests.

Not sure if anyone as seen them here maybe Bangkok, but Issarn I've never seen one.

[LivinLOS]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/econom...26-5-in-january

Exports decline 26.5% in January

Import drop suggests worse yet to come

By: PHUSADEE ARUNMAS

Published: 20/02/2009 at 12:00 AM

Newspaper section: Business

The value of Thailand's exports fell in January by the most in 18 years as the deepening global recession curbed demand for Thai and Asian products. Shipments for the month were worth US$10.49 billion, down 26.5% from a year earlier, said Siripol Yodmuangcharoen, the permanent secretary for the Commerce Ministry.

The January contraction followed a 14.55% year-on-year decline in December and a 20.47% slide in November. The contraction was the biggest since January 1991.

Exports were down sharply almost in all sectors with agricultural and agro-industrial shipments dropping 25.6% to $1.66 billion and industrial goods falling 24.5% to $7.2 billion.

Thai shipments also fell to all market destinations. The decline was 28.2% to traditional key markets such as the United States, Japan and Europe, and 26.4% to secondary markets including Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea.

Even exports to emerging markets seen as having better potential were off 30.6%.

According to Mr Siripol, imports also fell in almost all sectors, with energy down 53.4% in value, capital goods down 29.5%, raw materials down 41.9%, consumer products down 17.9%, vehicles and transport down 18.7%.

Imports as a result contracted 37.6% to $9.12 billion after a 6.52% decline in December, which had been the first drop since May 2002.

''Thailand is not the only country that saw exports fall in January,'' said Mr Siripol.

''Shipments of other countries also contracted accordingly. Exports from China, for instance, contracted 17.4%, Japan was down 46.1%, Singapore 37.8%, Vietnam 24.2% and Taiwan 40%. We can't say whether our exports have reached bottom.''

In the face of declining exports in January, Mr Siripol said the government might have to revise its export projection for the year, set earlier at 3% growth to $183.17 billion.

Ministry officials will meet with Thai Trade Center executives and commercial counsellors on Feb 25 and 26 to re-evaluate strategies for this year.

''We are afraid Thai exports will fall further as imports, notably raw materials and capital goods [for production], are shrinking,'' said Mr Siripol.

As well, export prices in almost every category have been falling in line with easing oil prices and production costs, noted Rachane Potjanasuntorn, the director-general of the Export Promotion Department.

Aat Pisanwanich, director of the Centre for International Trade Studies of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC), said that given the January figures, Thailand's exports were expected to contract by up to 6% this year.

He said a double-digit contraction was even possible if the world economy does not start to show signs of recovery in the third and fourth quarters of the year.

''What the government needs to do right now is to conduct scenario planning analysis to evaluate the impact on Thailand's export performance if the world is still in a downturn like this, and examine how much the baht's weakness could help boost exports,'' he said.

''We have also to take into account whether the 'Buy American' bill which forbids the use of foreign labour and requires investors to set up companies in the United States would affect Thai exports, and in the worst case, what the government should do to curb that impact.''

Narongchai Akrasanee, the Export-Import Bank chairman, urged the government to make more use of free trade agreements under the Asean framework.

''Despite the declining purchasing power of Japanese customers, Japan is still promising for Thai goods as we can capitalise on the Japan-Thailand Economic Partnership Agreement (JTEPA) to boost exports,'' he said.

''New markets such as Africa and the Middle East and the markets where Thailand has already agreed on free trade agreements, such as India,and Australia, also deserve export interest.

Somchai Sujjapongse, the director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office, said that the weak export results were roughly in line with other countries in the region.

He added that the FPO had previously forecast that economic growth in the first quarter would fall ''significantly'' if not for the government's economic stimulus programme, due in part to high base effects. Growth in the first quarter of 2008 was 6%.

Hold on to your hats.. Thats ugly !!

[Naam]

Sorry Naam should have said dollar.

I dont really have any other currencies, so if i'm following this right not reflecting in EURo, Pound. Aussie Dollar?

They looked as if they made some gains today, but as I said not really watching closely.

bottom line is (looking at the last six months) that they are all still down vs. THB.

[Naam]

Hold on to your hats.. Thats ugly !!

[midas]

PTT shocks market with q4 loss of Bt22 billion

By The Nation

Published on February 21, 2009

PTT Plc, Thailand's largest company in terms of market value, shocked the market with a higher-than-expected quarterly loss last year, due mainly to inventory losses at its refining and petrochemical subsidiaries.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2009/02/21...ss_30096239.php