Financial Crisis

[lannarebirth]

This one's better:

http://www.villagevoice.com/2009-01-28/new...rld-s-economy/1

Lana I absolutely agree with other TV members that this was one of the best articles I have read about this.

I am left with the question - if the gross value of these credit derivative commitments is about $596 trillion and some due,

now, if it was such a big effort to pass the TARP Bill for less than a measlry 1 Trillion, how will our financial system

cope with what is to come?

Well, that's a big number and could just as easily be a quintillion, because if that is the number to deal with, no one will.

I think a large part of the derivatives market has nothing to do with some of the shady finacial dealings we read about in the news. You can buy derivatives for weather events, crop yields, where a stock market will trade at on a given date, etc. Clearly, as the article points out SOME institutions have taken positions in this market they can not make good on, hence the government cash infusions. I have no idea, how much and for how long that might need to continue, if in fact it will at all. The key takeawy for me when this subject is brought up is that there is NO TRANSPARENCY into this market and the parties taking on risk do not seem to have to comply with any vetting process that I've heard about. That creates an environment of fear based on the public not knowing how much they don't know.

I think it would be a wiser course for governments to demystify this market and aggressively pursue those persons or institutions that may have fraudulantly benefitted in it. That more than anything IMO will allay the fears of the general public. Speaking for myself, I don't like to pay undefined sums in support of schemes that are undefined or which I cannot understand, and I understand more than most.

[meom]

I think it would be a wiser course for governments to demystify this market and aggressively pursue those persons or institutions that may have fraudulantly benefitted in it.

Have a look at this article that explains how for example CDO's are priced.

http://www.math.umd.edu/~qchen/CDOMaster.pdf

This is so high tech that it is not strange that a lot people who bought into these things did not have a clue what they were actually buying into.

[jcon]

http://www.villagevoice.com/2009-01-28/new...rld-s-economy/1

that was an excellent read

please post your good links as they are appreciated

Whoa... anybody know any shippers out of Dubai... maybe we can go in on a couple of containers.... what do you Brits call it? A "whip-around?"

is your father the head Thai customs honcho ? wouldn't want to see more ferraris crushed for the television cameras

Ha, NO WAY I would ship a car to LOS... I was meaning get some containers and ship em back to our home countries... Dubai has (had) some kick ass wheels that's for sure...

Lanna, that villagevoice link was very good. Very good. Thanks for that.

[midas]

what exactly is to come Midas? did anybody anywhere at any time claim that all derivatives (credit and others) are toxic, not covered, will blow up in our faces or swamp the planet with a deluge? why jump to conclusions based on assumptions?

next thing we know is Hank Farang from Ratchaburi reads TV, sees the figure of 596trillion, takes your "what is to come" literally, shoots his family, all in-laws as well as out-laws and jumps into his septic tank because he assumes that his pension will be used in future to fight the bad derivatives.

it's about time that realism instead of far fetched and wild assumptions returns to this thread. i mention this because i'm convinced that the majority of TV readers don't know what a credit derivative is.

Naam please don't you of all people join the anti scaremongering brigade as well !

Bearing in mind in any case my question was actually directed to Lana

in direct response to the very interesting URL he posted today, I feel

you are implying I have posted something " politically incorrect " simply by asking this question?

With people like Chaimai claiming we should " return to realism " ( this is realism Chaimai - wake up ) and you

asserting my question could lead to somebody committing a mass murder,maybe

I have to ask you or Chaimai to provide me with a copy of " terms of reference "

for this thread - give me a break !

So far this thread has been educational, entertaining and very thought-provoking regarding

many subjects. But it's also an interesting display of human behavior

as to how they perceive news will affect them.

Naam I obviously don't have your financial expertise and probably your vast wealth but should I

be precluded from asking questions? I feel I'm being mildly chastised for not entirely

understanding how these derivatives worked? When I said " how will our financial system

cope with what is to come "? -I am making an assumption that this debt will somehow

at sometime need to be dealt with? I am sorry if my assumption about this is wrong,

but this is the amount quoted in Lana's article? Isn't the purpose of this kind of

thread to learn from other more experienced members such as Lana ?

Or do you think it would be more suitable for me to PM the more " sensitive "

questions ? I think a more practical alternative is that if you or Chaimai don't consider the question

to be suitable-simply don't read it

[midas]

Well, that's a big number and could just as easily be a quintillion, because if that is the number to deal with, no one will.

I think a large part of the derivatives market has nothing to do with some of the shady finacial dealings we read about in the news. You can buy derivatives for weather events, crop yields, where a stock market will trade at on a given date, etc. Clearly, as the article points out SOME institutions have taken positions in this market they can not make good on, hence the government cash infusions. I have no idea, how much and for how long that might need to continue, if in fact it will at all. The key takeawy for me when this subject is brought up is that there is NO TRANSPARENCY into this market and the parties taking on risk do not seem to have to comply with any vetting process that I've heard about. That creates an environment of fear based on the public not knowing how much they don't know.

I think it would be a wiser course for governments to demystify this market and aggressively pursue those persons or institutions that may have fraudulantly benefitted in it. That more than anything IMO will allay the fears of the general public. Speaking for myself, I don't like to pay undefined sums in support of schemes that are undefined or which I cannot understand, and I understand more than most.

Thank you very much Lana for a knowledgeable, rational, calm cool and collected reply to my question which we have come

to expect from you

[midas]

I think it would be a wiser course for governments to demystify this market and aggressively pursue those persons or institutions that may have fraudulantly benefitted in it.

Have a look at this article that explains how for example CDO's are priced.

http://www.math.umd.edu/~qchen/CDOMaster.pdf

This is so high tech that it is not strange that a lot people who bought into these things did not have a clue what they were actually buying into.

meom that is so funny

Makes me wonder how many people on Wall Street could carry out these kinds of calculations?

[12DrinkMore]

This one's better:

http://www.villagevoice.com/2009-01-28/new...rld-s-economy/1

Well hey, now we're up to 600 trillion,

Want to know what comes next after another mere 400 trillion?

I didn't have a clue, so I found out and here it is..... a QUADRILLION.

And how does it look?

1,000,000,000,000,000

Not much really, I suppose, just a "one" followed by fifteen zeros.

Just thought we should all know.

I'll send two boxes of 12 large Changs to the first person in Thailand who spots this number mentioned in terms of financial debts, liabilities, CDO's.

:D :D

(probably be sending them by the weekend at this rate)

Well, I have now decided to relax. These numbers are so frigging huge that there is no point in worrying anymore. I now know that my teeny weeny bit of cash is worth absolutely fukc all on the grand scale, so I am going to try to empty a whole box of Chang tonight and hope that by tomorrow all will be back to normal.

Edited February 17, 2009 by 12DrinkMore

[LivinLOS]

http://www.villagevoice.com/2009-01-28/new...rld-s-economy/1

that was an excellent read

please post your good links as they are appreciated

Whoa... anybody know any shippers out of Dubai... maybe we can go in on a couple of containers.... what do you Brits call it? A "whip-around?"

is your father the head Thai customs honcho ? wouldn't want to see more ferraris crushed for the television cameras

Ha, NO WAY I would ship a car to LOS... I was meaning get some containers and ship em back to our home countries... Dubai has (had) some kick ass wheels that's for sure...

Lanna, that villagevoice link was very good. Very good. Thanks for that.

They are abandoning the cars because they are on lease.. Job gone, market soured and luxury car on the slate.. Just dump it at the airport and leave.

But it was never theirs really.. They were just making the lease payments.. More credit junkies.

[samuibeachcomber]

latest reports out of the UK is that angela merckle wants gordon brown to head a world financial body to solve the financal crisis...............its one way of leaving a sinking ship,but woe for the world.A lot of UK voters will be happy.I just wish they'd get off this globalisation crap as i see it as one of the causes of the problem.

[LivinLOS]

I really wish it were possible for us all to do something. Some alternative to it all. Something that just abandons them & their whole game. We still need an alternative to this totally corrupted & corruptible system.

Personally I am getting off the merry go round as much as possible in these next years. What other choice is there?

Leave the fiat based system for all savings..

Own assets.. Own your home.. Save in precious metals (for now) when the world wakes up to the mess its really in the stampede into the metals will be a once in a lifetime moonshot. Then use that time to buy land when no one wants it or has the money or access to credit to do so. Blood on the streets etc.

Been my gameplan for the last 4 - 5 years.. Tripled my net worth (in dollar terms) so far thanks to this crisis.

[midas]

latest reports out of the UK is that angela merckle wants gordon brown to head a world financial body to solve the financal crisis...............its one way of leaving a sinking ship,but woe for the world.A lot of UK voters will be happy.I just wish they'd get off this globalisation crap as i see it as one of the causes of the problem.

HANG ON - whoaaaaaaaaa ..........that sounds ominous

[Chaimai]

I'll send two boxes of 12 large Changs to the first person in Thailand who spots this number mentioned in terms of financial debts, liabilities, CDO's.

(probably be sending them by the weekend at this rate)

Well, I have now decided to relax. These numbers are so frigging huge that there is no point in worrying anymore. I now know that my teeny weeny bit of cash is worth absolutely fukc all on the grand scale, so I am going to try to empty a whole box of Chang tonight and hope that by tomorrow all will be back to normal.

12D - can I claim the Chang for this one:-

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/demeritt061608.html

Delighted to see you relaxing

[12DrinkMore]

latest reports out of the UK is that angela merckle wants gordon brown to head a world financial body to solve the financal crisis...............its one way of leaving a sinking ship,but woe for the world.A lot of UK voters will be happy.I just wish they'd get off this globalisation crap as i see it as one of the causes of the problem.

Give us a break. Unless you have a reference I cannot believe that. I have a lot of respect for the Merckle. And she does not like Brown and his policies.

So come on, where did you hear/read/see it?

[shochu]

ah, u do understand - that some people do not comprehend the language enough to know when they r being...

i hope i didn't give anything away...

[shochu]

oh, just so this is not misconstrued - i am not responding to the previous post!

[samuibeachcomber]

latest reports out of the UK is that angela merckle wants gordon brown to head a world financial body to solve the financal crisis...............its one way of leaving a sinking ship,but woe for the world.A lot of UK voters will be happy.I just wish they'd get off this globalisation crap as i see it as one of the causes of the problem.

Give us a break. Unless you have a reference I cannot believe that. I have a lot of respect for the Merckle. And she does not like Brown and his policies.

So come on, where did you hear/read/see it?

on-line daily mail UK.

[AlexLah]

Well you know it all makes sense, as Blair is now spreading his God inspired message of love while in between he relaxes in his private jet payed by the taxpayer, I believe.

The retoric of Prince Obama is indeed nothing different to what they have been doing under Bush, scare the sh1t out of people by constantly reminding them of pending catastrophe if orders are not followed and he is not obeyed.

These techniques are described in another document and they call it psyops. These are operations that control exactly what the people will see and hear on their nice TV and radiostations and what appears in most of the main stream media. A lot of the papers will put similair news on the frontpage, like that news about bonnusses and stuff, to make people feel angry as that is another type of emotion that can be controlled and used. Imagine Millions of people no job low on money hearing those things, at a certain moment that anger will turn into actions. And the scary part is that they can calculate pretty accurate when and how that will happen as they have this supercomputer with a special piece of software already in place and working. (I will provide linkie laters, not bookmarked).

These Islamic terror camps as trhey call them are interesting as well, I was not aware of that.

And for some peeps here asking to get back to reality, I would say, that is exactly what we are trying to achieve here. There has been too many official people in the last year and a half that everything was fine and under control and now their words are getting stronger and stronger and pointing to disaster if we not do this or that. Thanks for that, I knew they where lying through their teeth all the time.

[samuibeachcomber]

have attached link here.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11...n-lifeboat.html

It might be internal destabilising but "where there's smoke there's usually fire.

Edited February 17, 2009 by samuibeachcomber

[12DrinkMore]

have attached link here.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11...n-lifeboat.html

It might be internal destabilising but "where there's smoke there's usually fire.

Oh jesus, spare us from the Daily Mail

It coincided with a bizarre row over claims that Germany wants Mr Brown to quit Downing Street to become a new world financial watchdog before the next General Election

Downing Street poured scorn on reports that the Prime Minister is being lined up for an international role that would force him to quit No 10.

Labour sources claimed instead that Mr Brown was the victim of a botched spin operation by the party's deputy leader amid signs that his authority is weakening.

In a sign of increasingly frayed Labour nerves, they accused Miss Harman of trying to advance her campaign to succeed Mr Brown as Labour leader.

Not worth the internet bandwidth it costs to download

[samuibeachcomber]

did i waste your time 12?

[AlexLah]

OK, for those of you that are not aware of how your deposits are protected/insured, the attached list could be helpfull.

Do not think each account you have is fully insured. If let's say you have 4 accounts at different banks but these banks belong to one group, those 4 accounts are considered as one.

Attached a list which is still a bit incomplete but for now that is what has been compiled.

Bank_Who_Is_Who.doc

[12DrinkMore]

I'll send two boxes of 12 large Changs to the first person in Thailand who spots this number mentioned in terms of financial debts, liabilities, CDO's.

(probably be sending them by the weekend at this rate)

Well, I have now decided to relax. These numbers are so frigging huge that there is no point in worrying anymore. I now know that my teeny weeny bit of cash is worth absolutely fukc all on the grand scale, so I am going to try to empty a whole box of Chang tonight and hope that by tomorrow all will be back to normal.

12D - can I claim the Chang for this one:-

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/demeritt061608.html

Delighted to see you relaxing

Fukcing hel_l! That was a quadrillion times quicker than a nice girl enjoying the sun and sand at Pattaya can say "I love you, hansome man".

And that report was dated June 16th 2008.

But RESPECT my man, PM me with an address and it's on it's way....

Same offer goes for the next one number up the chain... a QUINTILLION

Hope that this will stay in my pocket for at least a month...

[12DrinkMore]

did i waste your time 12?

Hey, no probs! Just another 5.5 bottles and I've reached the target, a box of Chang in one evening to cope with the numbers game. Probably won't be posting for a day or two though.... :D

[samuibeachcomber]

did i waste your time 12?

Hey, no probs! Just another 5.5 bottles and I've reached the target, a box of Chang in one evening to cope with the numbers game. Probably won't be posting for a day or two though....

knowing the chang effect you might be right!

[12DrinkMore]

Either me or the computer screwed up, so deleted...

Edited February 17, 2009 by 12DrinkMore

[AlexLah]

Come on 12, what's a few botties of beer, keep posting while drinking , could be fun, ha ha!

[samuibeachcomber]

OK, for those of you that are not aware of how your deposits are protected/insured, the attached list could be helpfull.

Do not think each account you have is fully insured. If let's say you have 4 accounts at different banks but these banks belong to one group, those 4 accounts are considered as one.

Attached a list which is still a bit incomplete but for now that is what has been compiled.

Bank_Who_Is_Who.doc

its anyones guess if they really will honor these guarantees,govts. or banks.as big as the fear factor is i reckon a bigger problem now is a total lack of trust by people in govts.politicians,banks,financial services etc. and i dont see it coming back/

[12DrinkMore]

its anyones guess if they really will honor these guarantees,govts. or banks.as big as the fear factor is i reckon a bigger problem now is a total lack of trust by people in govts.politicians,banks,financial services etc. and i dont see it coming back/

All I trust is my Chang. Never failed me yet. And tomorrow it will deliver on its promise of returning a decent rate of return. I will have the most god almighty changover, and I don't care anymore.

All I want is an AK 47, another very trusty friend, with all the western bankers and politicians lined up against the wall. And it won't take a quadrillion rounds to remove that bunch of bsatsrds from our lives.

I'm off to bed, another one of these Chnags and I will need life support tomorrow.

[AlexLah]

ha ha ha ha , cool!

12 fully drunk and goes to bed before 12, great, that's the way to do it!

Alka Seltzer in the morning, eat some scrambled eggs, toast and sausage and you will be fine.

[Chaimai]

And that report was dated June 16th 2008.

But RESPECT my man, PM me with an address and it's on it's way....

Same offer goes for the next one number up the chain... a QUINTILLION

Hope that this will stay in my pocket for at least a month...

Sorry 12D but you may hate me for this 2007 story related to Lloyds Bank !

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/invest-...ent-464271.html

I would be more than happy to join you in a case of Chang so we can drown our sorrows and perhaps I can encourage you towards the path of optimism

Failing that I will PM you when I am back in Buriram towards the end of March.

Good luck with the Changover