Japan In Trouble

[The Philosopher]

All the business news from Japan today is as gloomy as the west. Do you think Japan is about to crash and will Thailand follow

Edited February 17, 2009 by The Philosopher

[Jingthing]

Already crashed. Will it crash more? Why wouldn't it?

[think_too_mut]

Already crashed. Will it crash more? Why wouldn't it?

But something, somehow, keeps the Yen strong. Why is that?

[sorensen]

Already crashed. Will it crash more? Why wouldn't it?

But something, somehow, keeps the Yen strong. Why is that?

The yen is strong because of the carry trade, but yes Japan is in a serious Crisis. Falling population and no natural rsources other then fish and brain power.

[midas]

A very bold statement today by Stuart Varney on Fox Buiness News- he called the the " D " word

on the TV to the shock and horror of his colleagues who made him say it again.

His reasons were because of the size of the fall - i.e. 12%

[shochu]

don't underestimate the japanese - their gov't - or the people behind the public faces.

they know exactly what they r doing.

there is a very good reason why their money is strong, and why they invested offshore.

[yabaaaa]

don't underestimate the japanese - their gov't - or the people behind the public faces.

they know exactly what they r doing.

there is a very good reason why their money is strong, and why they invested offshore.

I just love posts like this.......... just tell us the flipping answer then for the stupid ie "me" amongst us.

[shochu]

if u actually read carefully, part of the answer is there - in the thread @#%&*!

[ArranP]

Already crashed. Will it crash more? Why wouldn't it?

But something, somehow, keeps the Yen strong. Why is that?

The yen is strong because of the carry trade, but yes Japan is in a serious Crisis. Falling population and no natural rsources other then fish and brain power.

The YEN current strength is due to the reversal of the carry trade.

Up until recently most central banks interest rates were above 5% with only the BOJ interest by far the lowest at .5%, speculators and institutions took advantage of this by borrowing in JPY and buying commodities, ie selling the JPY and buying Oil, Gold etc or just another currency, ie the carry trade. This caused mass SELLING of the JPY, this weakened the YEN.

Now, these same speculators and instituations have sold their positions in Oil, Gold and other currencies and returned the money the JPY, ie BUYING of the JPY, which has caused the YEN to strengthen. Just by how much it has strengthened goes to show the amount of JPY that was loaned out.

Therefore the current YEN strength is to do with mass in-flows of money to the YEN.

Its the same reason the USD is so strong also, but there banks have been recalling the loans from hedge-funds and investment banks like Goldman Sachs, Meryl Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns who have either gone bust or changed their status to Normal Banks, which has basically meant they can no longer leverage their positions by 30 times but only 12 times, which in-turn meant caused mass selling of positions in equities and commodities and in-flows of money from these sales returning to the USD, ie USD BUYING.

Edited February 17, 2009 by ArranP

[Naam]

All the business news from Japan today is as gloomy as the west. Do you think Japan is about to crash and will Thailand follow

another new thread which is as superfluous as the tits of a nun

[Merangue]

From Bloomberg

Asian Currencies Fall, Led by Won, Rupee as Economies Slump

By Lilian Karunungan

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies declined, with South Korea’s won, India’s rupee and Singapore’s dollar dropping to two-month lows versus the greenback, on speculation regional economies will contract further as exports slump.

Taiwan’s dollar slid to its weakest level in five years before a government report tomorrow that’s forecast to show the economy shrank amid a global recession. Malaysia’s ringgit was the cheapest its been since November 2006. The won fell for a second day on concern tighter credit markets will starve the nation of the foreign exchange needed to service overseas debt.

“Near term, we’re going to see weak regional currencies,” said Magnus Prim, chief Asia strategist at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken in Singapore. “Regional economies will be slowing quite significantly.”

The won slid 1.9 percent, the most since Jan. 15, to 1,455.50 per dollar as of 3 p.m. in Seoul. The rupee fell 1.3 percent to 49.45 in Mumbai and Singapore’s currency fell 0.8 percent to S$1.5281. All three touched their lowest levels since December. The Taiwan dollar tumbled 1 percent to NT$34.620, the lowest since June 2003, and Indonesia’s rupiah slid 0.9 percent to 11,925.

All 10 of Asia’s most-active currencies outside Japan fell. Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports contracted 34.8 percent in January from a year earlier, the most since at least 1987, the government reported. A report tomorrow will probably show Taiwan’s economy shrank 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

‘Grim’ Data

The yen fell 0.5 percent to 92.15 per dollar after Japan’s Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said today he would resign after budget bills are passed. Japan’s gross domestic product contracted by the most since 1974 and growth in Indonesia eased to the slowest pace in more than two years in the fourth quarter, government reports showed yesterday.

Malaysia’s ringgit fell 0.7 percent to 3.6425 per dollar, its biggest decline in four weeks. The currency is down 5.2 percent this year, after sliding 4.2 percent in 2008.

“Regional economic data are still grim and it’s adding to the bearish tone on the ringgit,” said Suresh Kumar Ramanathan, a rates and currency strategist at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur. “There’s a risk that the market may be under- estimating the weakness in GDP numbers.”

Dollar Shortage

Korea’s currency extended this year’s loss to 13.5 percent, the most among the 10 most-active Asian currencies. The one-year cross-currency swap rate, a gauge of the availability of dollars, slumped to a record minus 1.7 percent today before trading at minus 1.1 percent. The Kospi stock index dropped 4.1 percent, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index declined 2.9 percent.

“Dollar funding pressure has indeed been a significant contributing factor to the won’s weakness, in addition to global cyclical weakness,” said Kwon Goohoon, an economist with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Seoul. “The won faces weakening pressure in the near term, possibly to 1,500.”

The Asian Development Bank said it’s “desirable” to ease limits on the amount nations can swap under a currency accord between Southeast Asian countries, Japan, China and South Korea.

Finance ministers from the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the three northern neighbors will meet in Thailand on Feb. 22 to expand a pool of foreign-exchange reserves to protect their currencies. They may also ease rules that require economic austerity measures to borrow in a currency swap under the so-called Chiang Mai Initiative, ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda said in an interview in Jakarta.

Ko Yun Jin, a currency dealer with Kookmin Bank in Seoul, said the won will remain under “modest” pressure as importers place orders for dollars to pay bills.

Export Outlook Dims

India’s rupee dropped the most in eight weeks after Trade Minister Kamal Nath said Feb. 13 that overseas sales may increase 15 percent in the year ending March 31, compared with an earlier target of 23 percent. The current-account deficit, a broad measure of trade flows, widened to a record $12.5 billion in the last quarter, according to the central bank.

“The rupee will continue to have a weak undertone because of the deterioration of the current-account balance,” said Krishnamurthy Harihar, treasurer at Development Credit Bank Ltd. in Mumbai. “Exports are slowing because of the poor global economic climate and imports are growing.”

Elsewhere, the Philippine peso declined 0.8 percent to 47.853 per dollar. The Thai baht traded at 35.27, compared with 35.12 late yesterday. Vietnam’s dong was little changed at 17,488.50.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lilian Karunungan in Singapore at at [email protected].

Last Updated: February 17, 2009 04:21 EST

It would appear every single one of the Asian currencies lost ground........ except the Baht which actually gained.

This is baffling to me

[ArranP]

All the business news from Japan today is as gloomy as the west. Do you think Japan is about to crash and will Thailand follow

another new thread which is as superfluous as the tits of a nun

maybe a chocolate radiator ?

Edited February 18, 2009 by ArranP

[The Philosopher]

All the business news from Japan today is as gloomy as the west. Do you think Japan is about to crash and will Thailand follow

another new thread which is as superfluous as the tits of a nun

maybe a chocolate radiator ?

Or a pattaya ex pat most of whom have tits of the male variety

Edited February 19, 2009 by The Philosopher