Property Over The Next Two Years Let Us Forecast.

[TonySoprano]

The only question I have is will Bangkok keep sinking? Where does that factor in?

[JR Texas]

To the very best of my knowledge as a foreigner you cannot buy freehold in these countries. For Vietnam I think if you are married to a Vietnamese you are allowed to buy some sort of 30 year leasehold that you are not allowed to make profit on and must surrender/sell if you leave the country. There was an interesting thread on this that I seem unable to find via a quick search.

midas can you point us at your research on freehold property ownership (of any form) in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia? I do have an active interest.

I wasn't just talking about condominium ownership in those countries

when I talked about investment.

I was talking about those countries being an increasingly

better option for business investment such as manufacturing but of course

this will also indirectly negatively impact the Bangkok condominium

market even further. If I was a manufacturer Thailand right now

would be the last place I would ever to choose to set up a facility.

Not just because of the riots on the streets but because

I could open a factory or other business in Vietnam or even Cambodia

and I would have a much more enthusiastic young workforce

with far better English language skills. There is no comparison

to the attitude of the young people in these other neighboring countries.

The recent ASEAN summit cancellation I think will be the last straw

for many would be investors. Another thing is that

ifyou read some of the threads in the news section over the past two days you'll be astonished

to see just how many farangs are skeptical about their long-term visa status.

I agree with what you said above......especially about Vietnam and Cambodian having a more enthusiastic young workforce with far better English language skills.

I will add something you know: Cambodia has expat/business friendly visa rules.......tougher in Vietnam........but Thailand clearly has the worst visa system in the region (perhaps worldwide except for a few countries in Africa).

Malaysia is also a better place to invest........and so is The Philippines. Thailand has had it........the last one out, please turn off the lights.

[trogers]

The only question I have is will Bangkok keep sinking? Where does that factor in?

Seems such a question comes only to the mind of an investor who had made rather optimistic projections and commited funds at the peak - a herd follower. Now that the curve is on the downtrend, the question forms.

Such a question does not come to my mind as I hoarded cash during the formation of the bubble. I invest only in downtrends to ride 2 bubbles away. The first recovery bubble will be minor. The 2nd will be big.

Edited April 14, 2009 by trogers

[midas]

The only question I have is will Bangkok keep sinking? Where does that factor in?

Seems such a question comes only to the mind of an investor who had made rather optimistic projections and commited funds at the peak - a herd follower. Now that the curve is on the downtrend, the question forms.

Such a question does not come to my mind as I hoarded cash during the formation of the bubble. I invest only in downtrends to ride 2 bubbles away. The first recovery bubble will be minor. The 2nd will be big.

I think he is talking about under water not about the investment climate

[trogers]

The only question I have is will Bangkok keep sinking? Where does that factor in?

Seems such a question comes only to the mind of an investor who had made rather optimistic projections and commited funds at the peak - a herd follower. Now that the curve is on the downtrend, the question forms.

Such a question does not come to my mind as I hoarded cash during the formation of the bubble. I invest only in downtrends to ride 2 bubbles away. The first recovery bubble will be minor. The 2nd will be big.

I think he is talking about under water not about the investment climate

Bangkok will sink to mean sea level when your granchild is a grandpa or grandma. Problem is not Bangkok sinking, but sea levels rising due to global warming.

The wise will buy only condo units above 4 storeys. Bangkok will be a large floating market, hmmm...quite an attractive city. BTS will still be running. Cannot say the same for the MRT. So where will you place your bet? Sukhumvit or Rachadapisek?

[trogers]

Given the current state of civil unrest in Thailand, it looks as though those who voted that property values would be lower two years from now will be correct

Have seen this emotional reaction back in 1991 - just before the showdown between protesters and Gen Suchinda along Ramkhampang road. I was staying next to the Mall 3 then, and had to pass through road blocks manned by the protesters to get home.

Now calm has returned to Bangkok...just like back in 1991.

Back then (just before the final showdown), His Majesty called Gen Suchinda and protest leader Chamlong into his presence, and in front of Live TV gave his message. Thereafter, the general retired to this day and Chamlong went on to set up his school.

[pkrv]

Sorted. Buying a home to live in need not be an investment.

yes - that is correct - but a question - is that freehold - because that is the 'investment' in life ];-) - PKRV

[SeverementBurne]

Given the current state of civil unrest in Thailand, it looks as though those who voted that property values would be lower two years from now will be correct

Have seen this emotional reaction back in 1991 - just before the showdown between protesters and Gen Suchinda along Ramkhampang road. I was staying next to the Mall 3 then, and had to pass through road blocks manned by the protesters to get home.

Now calm has returned to Bangkok...just like back in 1991.

Back then (just before the final showdown), His Majesty called Gen Suchinda and protest leader Chamlong into his presence, and in front of Live TV gave his message. Thereafter, the general retired to this day and Chamlong went on to set up his school.

Ain't gonna work this time around.

[Heng]

Sorted. Buying a home to live in need not be an investment.

yes - that is correct - but a question - is that freehold - because that is the 'investment' in life ];-) - PKRV

Maybe?

[geriatrickid]

One of the better polls with lots of interesting opinions. One piece of wisdom I have obtained from TV folks is that for someone like me (single, no dependents, under 50) is that it is better to rent. Best advice I ever took.

I was expecting a real estate price correction, but fom what I have seen, no such luck, at least here on Phuket. I don't know what's up with some of the condo owners. It is as if they live in fantasy land. I was in the Patong Tower Condo lobby the other day looking at an ad someone had put up to sell his condo described as "tastefully decorated". Umm yea. I have been in some of the condos. This was a standard condo unit for the building with south exposure, upper floor. 2 BR, 1 basic bathroom and a small kitchen with living room (salon as some call it). Approx. 70 sq. m. Want to be sick? Get the garbage pail ready..........

This guy wants 12,500,000 baht for the unit. Yea right. Dream on baby. Sure, Patong condo is the largest building in Patong but that's one crazy price. Maybe 6million in a good market. I wonder if some fool will buy it?

[Pomthai]

One of the better polls with lots of interesting opinions. One piece of wisdom I have obtained from TV folks is that for someone like me (single, no dependents, under 50) is that it is better to rent. Best advice I ever took.

I was expecting a real estate price correction, but fom what I have seen, no such luck, at least here on Phuket. I don't know what's up with some of the condo owners. It is as if they live in fantasy land. I was in the Patong Tower Condo lobby the other day looking at an ad someone had put up to sell his condo described as "tastefully decorated". Umm yea. I have been in some of the condos. This was a standard condo unit for the building with south exposure, upper floor. 2 BR, 1 basic bathroom and a small kitchen with living room (salon as some call it). Approx. 70 sq. m. Want to be sick? Get the garbage pail ready..........

This guy wants 12,500,000 baht for the unit. Yea right. Dream on baby. Sure, Patong condo is the largest building in Patong but that's one crazy price. Maybe 6million in a good market. I wonder if some fool will buy it?

I'm with you there, It makes no sense to me whatsoever why condo prices remain so high. I have a 320 square metre property which cost a quater of that in central Phuket with mountain views.

[trogers]

Approx. 70 sq. m. Want to be sick? Get the garbage pail ready..........

This guy wants 12,500,000 baht for the unit. Yea right. Dream on baby. Sure, Patong condo is the largest building in Patong but that's one crazy price. Maybe 6million in a good market. I wonder if some fool will buy it?

I would not pay more than Bt70,000/m2 for a one year old condo unit, whether in Patong or Tongpa! You cannot rent it out at more than Bt35,000/mth for a 2-bed/1bath 70m2 unit.

Look closely at the furniture, perhaps there are some 2-carat flawless blue diamonds embedded above the headboard of the master bed.

Edited April 15, 2009 by trogers

[midas]

is that it is better to rent. Best advice I ever took.

I was expecting a real estate price correction, but fom what I have seen, no such luck, at least here on Phuket. I don't know what's up with some of the condo owners. It is as if they live in fantasy land. I was in the Patong Tower Condo lobby the other day looking at an ad someone had put up to sell his condo described as "tastefully decorated". Umm yea. I have been in some of the condos. This was a standard condo unit for the building with south exposure, upper floor. 2 BR, 1 basic bathroom and a small kitchen with living room (salon as some call it). Approx. 70 sq. m. Want to be sick? Get the garbage pail ready..........

And the other thing is said no matter how nice the actual

condo may be-there seem to be too many problems

relating to management issues in Thailand that result

in so many buildings presenting poorly-for example

owners who don't pay maintenance, poor construction

in the first place. People are in fantasy about this as well

that management standards will ensure the building will keep looking good

for a long time-it just doesn't seem to happen

[trogers]

And the other thing is said no matter how nice the actual

condo may be-there seem to be too many problems

relating to management issues in Thailand that result

in so many buildings presenting poorly-for example

owners who don't pay maintenance, poor construction

in the first place. People are in fantasy about this as well

that management standards will ensure the building will keep looking good

for a long time-it just doesn't seem to happen

There are exceptions. Check out the project, Avenue 61, 200m inside Sukhumvit Soi 61. Construction started end of 2003 and transferred in Sep to Oct 2005 - 3.5years old.

[hhgz]

"I was expecting a real estate price correction, but fom what I have seen, no such luck,"

Are you telling us that property prices have not fallen? Do you mean that uncle frank, midas, bingobongo, and think to mut are wrong? Heavens forfend!

[trogers]

"I was expecting a real estate price correction, but fom what I have seen, no such luck,"

Are you telling us that property prices have not fallen? Do you mean that uncle frank, midas, bingobongo, and think to mut are wrong? Heavens forfend!

Property prices will not rise or fall when there is no meeting of minds - no sales!

The seller keeps his property and the buyer keeps his cash - stalemate.

Edited April 15, 2009 by trogers

[pkrv]

Approx. 70 sq. m. Want to be sick? Get the garbage pail ready..........

This guy wants 12,500,000 baht for the unit. Yea right. Dream on baby. Sure, Patong condo is the largest building in Patong but that's one crazy price. Maybe 6million in a good market. I wonder if some fool will buy it?

I would not pay more than Bt70,000/m2 for a one year old condo unit, whether in Patong or Tongpa! You cannot rent it out at more than Bt35,000/mth for a 2-bed/1bath 70m2 unit.

Look closely at the furniture, perhaps there are some 2-carat flawless blue diamonds embedded above the headboard of the master bed.

I don't actually know the Phuket market, or Patong Tower Condo, but that figure (12,500,000 for an upper floor. 2 BR, 1 basic bathroom and a small kitchen with living room) clashes heavily with The Address in Central Chidlom. It's in the CBD and spitting distance from Centrals flagship store and Chidlom BTS.

That said realistically The Address is a studio and 1 bedroom development with a few exceptions. I was quoted for 11B-02 at 56.1 sqm 7,510,700.00 THB <edit it's a one bed>. If you go to the foyer there is a good picture of the towers with dots indicating the Thai and Farang quota still remaining for sale. There were perhaps 20-30 units left.

[think_too_mut]

"I was expecting a real estate price correction, but fom what I have seen, no such luck,"

Are you telling us that property prices have not fallen? Do you mean that uncle frank, midas, bingobongo, and think to mut are wrong? Heavens forfend!

no backflip, no.

The property prices have not corrected themselves - they ZEROED themselves.

Put that millstone you are holding around your neck for sale and tell us in 20 years if anyone showed any &lt;deleted&gt; of intertest in even talking to you.

backflip, you poor bagholder, see those properties still on market today saying "easy access to highway to Don Muang, Bangkok's international airport"?

[hhgz]

I find it interesting, think to mut, that you complained bitterly about the Thai condo market...and then you bought one anyway. A recent post of yours indicated that you bought a condo, expecting that the value would drop to zero. By golly, that doesn't seem too smart to me. Your post continued to mention that you bought the condo with no expectation that you would ever move into the condo. Your condo sits unused, and now you complain that the condo isn't worth anything, and you blame the Thai economy for your woes. Imagine that. You bought something that you thought would be worthless and, just to prove the point how worthless it is, you refuse to use it. You truly are a man of principles.

Is my condo worth what I paid for it and, will the price ever increase or decrease? It does not matter, because I'm living in it, and I love it. Misery loves company, think to mut, that's why you spend your time with midas and bingobongo, and why we'll never be friends.

[think_too_mut]

I find it interesting, think to mut, that you complained bitterly about the Thai condo market...and then you bought one anyway. A recent post of yours indicated that you bought a condo, expecting that the value would drop to zero. By golly, that doesn't seem too smart to me. Your post continued to mention that you bought the condo with no expectation that you would ever move into the condo. Your condo sits unused, and now you complain that the condo isn't worth anything, and you blame the Thai economy for your woes. Imagine that. You bought something that you thought would be worthless and, just to prove the point how worthless it is, you refuse to use it. You truly are a man of principles.

backflip, you are seeing things. I could part with that much of cash, walk away from it, it's not hurting me like 6 mil you shreded into unsellable & unrentable condo.

How worthless your condo is - you know - that makes you lose your sleep.

Is my condo worth what I paid for it and, will the price ever increase or decrease? It does not matter, because I'm living in it, and I love it. Misery loves company, think to mut, that's why you spend your time with midas and bingobongo, and why we'll never be friends.

Don't b---it. Under one of your (banned) incarnations it were you who boasted huge jump in value and you can't hide it, those dispersing that illusion is what brings you here, banning after banning.

Someone who knows you read on this site what you did and questioned your sanity? Are your folks in farangland laughing at you?

Is your woman asking how could she walk away (and not pay any more levies) once you are not there in that unwanted, unsellable and unrentable place?

My condo is a reserve home for my wife and daughter and me if we have to return to Thailand. I can afford to keep it dormant and available at no notice to anyone.

[RAZZELL]

I just finished our family home but am thinking it might be nice to buy a condo in Bangkok as we currently rent. I don't see it as an investment of course, but at the moment it seems better than putting money in savings. I'll say one thing though, they don't seem to be getting any cheaper

There are a few condo units at President Park Sukhumvit (Soi 24) that will be up in forclosure auction by the Legal Execution Department. Go to their office to get more details. You may get lucky and secure a unit 15-20% below market prices. Present market price is about Bt55,000/m2.

The units there are over 200m2 and too large for my investment portfolio. But for residence, it may suit you.

Any link to these sales at President Park?

RAZZ

[pkrv]

EEK - Guys this is a property thread! In looking at the posts both here and elsewhere IMO we almost need a motivation for considering Thailand Poll!

Farang/Thai partnership - for us no

Is it a true HOME - YES

Is it for profit - no

Love Bangkok /Other areas - YES / still exporing

Love Thailand YES

Value for money AND standard of living vs. home country - YES!

Forced to be here? - NO!

Problems with houses/land - N/A

Problems with Condominiums - NO

Happy with my decision on Thailand - YES!!!!!!!!!!!

Quality of Thai home - GREAT!

Investment for my own personal future - FAVORABLE to EXCELLENT

Considering jumping off a tall building - NO!

Financially Secure - YES!

Here for the pay for sex - NO

Please feel free to add.

Edited April 20, 2009 by pkrv

[trogers]

I just finished our family home but am thinking it might be nice to buy a condo in Bangkok as we currently rent. I don't see it as an investment of course, but at the moment it seems better than putting money in savings. I'll say one thing though, they don't seem to be getting any cheaper

There are a few condo units at President Park Sukhumvit (Soi 24) that will be up in forclosure auction by the Legal Execution Department. Go to their office to get more details. You may get lucky and secure a unit 15-20% below market prices. Present market price is about Bt55,000/m2.

The units there are over 200m2 and too large for my investment portfolio. But for residence, it may suit you.

Any link to these sales at President Park?

RAZZ

Try this website: http://www.led.go.th/

I went to their office across the river and bought the book that list all properties (with details) scheduled for auctions. If you are looking for such properties, this book would be useful in highlighting condo units in the areas that is desired by you.

[Heng]

I prefer the online LED listings. They're free and IMO more up to date. Be prepared to lose plenty of auctions as well as winning a few though... might give you a correction into the feeling that the economy is in a slump, that Thais don't buy second hand, and that there aren't plenty of folks with cash laying around.

[hhgz]

"Are your folks in farangland laughing at you?"

No, but they're laughing at you. You bought a home which you thought was going to decrease in value, with no intention of living in it. Although it makes sense to you, it doesn't seem to be a brilliant investment strategy. Why would you save a home for your family? Why wouldn't you live in it? Is there any timeframe of your family returning to you, or is it just your hoping that your family will come back to papa?

"The property prices have not corrected themselves - they ZEROED themselves."

I think that comment clearly indicates you're confusing reality with fantasy. You now think that all property in Thailand is worthless. The rest of the TVers can now judge your perception and intelligence.

[think_too_mut]

"Are your folks in farangland laughing at you?"

No, but they're laughing at you. You bought a home which you thought was going to decrease in value, with no intention of living in it. Although it makes sense to you, it doesn't seem to be a brilliant investment strategy. Why would you save a home for your family? Why wouldn't you live in it? Is there any timeframe of your family returning to you, or is it just your hoping that your family will come back to papa?

"The property prices have not corrected themselves - they ZEROED themselves."

I think that comment clearly indicates you're confusing reality with fantasy. You now think that all property in Thailand is worthless. The rest of the TVers can now judge your perception and intelligence.

What an...

Have you heard of people having more than 1 home? I have 4.

Why would I not live in it? Because I don't want to live in 3rd world country unless I am forced to (like global slump where everything stops and nice place to live somewhere on the cheap).

Your property is worth shit, you know that, unsellable, unrentable and that's where your madness is - you think that's not true.

Especially YOUR property, in that price range, is worthless.

[JR Texas]

"Are your folks in farangland laughing at you?"

No, but they're laughing at you. You bought a home which you thought was going to decrease in value, with no intention of living in it. Although it makes sense to you, it doesn't seem to be a brilliant investment strategy. Why would you save a home for your family? Why wouldn't you live in it? Is there any timeframe of your family returning to you, or is it just your hoping that your family will come back to papa?

"The property prices have not corrected themselves - they ZEROED themselves."

I think that comment clearly indicates you're confusing reality with fantasy. You now think that all property in Thailand is worthless. The rest of the TVers can now judge your perception and intelligence.

What an...

Have you heard of people having more than 1 home? I have 4.

Why would I not live in it? Because I don't want to live in 3rd world country unless I am forced to (like global slump where everything stops and nice place to live somewhere on the cheap).

Your property is worth shit, you know that, unsellable, unrentable and that's where your madness is - you think that's not true.

Especially YOUR property, in that price range, is worthless.

The real estate sales trend in Thailand is clear:

[trogers]

The real estate sales trend in Thailand is clear:<br /><br />

I wonder how much of that graph was due to speculators click searching to source out projects, book and attempt selling their booking papers. Seems there is a strong correlation to the number of new projects launched per year as well.

I do not consider putting down a deposit for an unbuilt or incomplete condo a sales. That's why I have said, property professional will do themselves a big favour when they separate newly launched projects with those that have already been constructed and transferred. The latter is definitely a sales, but the former action is just a booking.

Edited April 21, 2009 by trogers

[JR Texas]

The real estate sales trend in Thailand is clear:<br /><br />

I wonder how much of that graph was due to speculators click searching to source out projects, book and attempt selling their booking papers. Seems there is a strong correlation to the number of new projects launched per year as well.

I do not consider putting down a deposit for an unbuilt or incomplete condo a sales. That's why I have said, property professional will do themselves a big favour when they separate newly launched projects with those that have already been constructed and transferred. The latter is definitely a sales, but the former action is just a booking.

With the exception of Phuket (seems to still be going strong), it seems that most real estate trends are down.

There is an oversupply of units (gross oversupply) with more are under construction: 5-star condos, 5-star hotels.

Registrations are down........housing sales down.....condo sales down.........global economy is down........I would not want to be involved in the real estate business in Thailand.

People keep saying "Thailand's real estate market is insulated." I beg to differ. CRRRAAAAAAASSSHHHHHH!

[pkrv]

The real estate sales trend in Thailand is clear:<br /><br />

I wonder how much of that graph was due to speculators click searching to source out projects, book and attempt selling their booking papers. Seems there is a strong correlation to the number of new projects launched per year as well.

I do not consider putting down a deposit for an unbuilt or incomplete condo a sales. That's why I have said, property professional will do themselves a big favour when they separate newly launched projects with those that have already been constructed and transferred. The latter is definitely a sales, but the former action is just a booking.

With the exception of Phuket (seems to still be going strong), it seems that most real estate trends are down.

There is an oversupply of units (gross oversupply) with more are under construction: 5-star condos, 5-star hotels.

Registrations are down........housing sales down.....condo sales down.........global economy is down........I would not want to be involved in the real estate business in Thailand.

People keep saying "Thailand's real estate market is insulated." I beg to differ. CRRRAAAAAAASSSHHHHHH!

Interesting others say home.