It's The Calm Before The Storm

[bingobongo]

and the SET is not even close to bottoming yet............only one sentence really says it all......

“We cannot export as the whole world is in recession,” Sirivat cautioned, pointing out that exports and tourism account for 70% of Thailand’s GDP.

http://thestar.com.my/columnists/story.asp...p;sec=thaitakes

[jumnien]

and the SET is not even close to bottoming yet............only one sentence really says it all......

“We cannot export as the whole world is in recession,” Sirivat cautioned, pointing out that exports and tourism account for 70% of Thailand’s GDP.

http://thestar.com.my/columnists/story.asp...p;sec=thaitakes

The top 1% of Thailand who make enormous profits off the 70% of Thailand's GDP are hurting, but don't shed a tear, they will be fine. The rest of the country for the most part is unaffected.

[geriatrickid]

Unaffected? It's starting. Have a look at some of the major hotel chains. Staff are getting "temporary" furloughs of 2-4 days evry few weeks with layoffs planned. Ok sure, tourism is a small part of the market, but as the low skilled workers that were employed by the hospitality trade suffer, they won't have other options. Where does a BG or bellboy go? As manufacturing exports fall, there is less money to spend locally. Watch the crime rates increase as desperate people do desperate stupid things to get some money. Watch as the most vulnerable in society are targeted. All it takes is a small percentage of idiots to act up to make life miserable for a population. If people get scared they can react with mob stupidity. No one thought that Icelanders would ever become unruly, but they took to the streets bringing down the government. It was something to watch with the tear gas being used in a country where people were non violent and never protested.

[samuibeachcomber]

Unaffected? It's starting. Have a look at some of the major hotel chains. Staff are getting "temporary" furloughs of 2-4 days evry few weeks with layoffs planned. Ok sure, tourism is a small part of the market, but as the low skilled workers that were employed by the hospitality trade suffer, they won't have other options. Where does a BG or bellboy go? As manufacturing exports fall, there is less money to spend locally. Watch the crime rates increase as desperate people do desperate stupid things to get some money. Watch as the most vulnerable in society are targeted. All it takes is a small percentage of idiots to act up to make life miserable for a population. If people get scared they can react with mob stupidity. No one thought that Icelanders would ever become unruly, but they took to the streets bringing down the government. It was something to watch with the tear gas being used in a country where people were non violent and never protested.

yes,and where will that leave us,expats and tourists alike?

[SoiGirlHunter]

>>>>> yes,and where will that leave us,expats and tourists alike?

Best case it will be more dangerous to live here, farang and thai alike

Worse case a free helicoptor ride departing from the top of your Embassy

My wife mentioned half of her family were layed off over the last month and cant find another job.

[mommysboy]

and the SET is not even close to bottoming yet............only one sentence really says it all......

"We cannot export as the whole world is in recession," Sirivat cautioned, pointing out that exports and tourism account for 70% of Thailand's GDP.

http://thestar.com.my/columnists/story.asp...p;sec=thaitakes

The top 1% of Thailand who make enormous profits off the 70% of Thailand's GDP are hurting, but don't shed a tear, they will be fine. The rest of the country for the most part is unaffected.

UNAFFECTED. What planet are you on?

[cclub75]

The top 1% of Thailand who make enormous profits off the 70% of Thailand's GDP are hurting, but don't shed a tear, they will be fine. The rest of the country for the most part is unaffected.

Sure.

GM to close Rayong plant

Only very rich thais work in GM factory.

[flying]

Watch the crime rates increase as desperate people do desperate stupid things to get some money. Watch as the most vulnerable in society are targeted.

Sad but true & not just here.

It was something to watch with the tear gas being used in a country where people were non violent and never protested.

Iceland is a great mini version of what to expect on larger scales elsewhere IMHO

[Naam]

The top 1% of Thailand who make enormous profits off the 70% of Thailand's GDP are hurting, but don't shed a tear, they will be fine. The rest of the country for the most part is unaffected.

Sure. GM to close Rayong plant Only very rich thais work in GM factory.

"GM Thailand will temporarily shut its plant in Rayong again from March 23-27..." sounds slightly different.

[jumnien]

Go to just about any small town in Thailand and see how life is different this year from 4 years ago, 8 years ago, 12 years ago or 16 years ago and see if anyone thinks things are affected negatively with the passage of time due to the present economic rationality. The GM plant wasn't there 8 years ago and things were just fine, thank you.

[Naam]

Watch the crime rates increase as desperate people do desperate stupid things to get some money. Watch as the most vulnerable in society are targeted.

Sad but true & not just here.

It was something to watch with the tear gas being used in a country where people were non violent and never protested.

Iceland is a great mini version of what to expect on larger scales elsewhere IMHO

"Penguins in the southern argentine province Patagonia on the rampage. Protests center around the recent price hikes for Chang and Singha. Gold (the metal, not the beer) skyrockets too in Buenos Aires and neighbouring Uruguay. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil orders troops to the brazilian/argentine border."

detailed news: http://www.naam_s_rubbishnews.com

[lordofdelusion]

Forget GM. The papers are full of other factories ans businesses closing.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/13...ses-will-worsen

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/econom...close-this-year

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/econom...e-drives-losses

Someone once asked on a thread long ago if Thailand would avoid the worldwide recession. I thought no then and no now. Try as they might to pretend they are not part of planet earth, the Thais are still here. Jumping out of windows is not the Thai style, however. If you have everything and lose it then maybe. When you have a little, it isn't worth the walk up to the window.

[flying]

Iceland is a great mini version of what to expect on larger scales elsewhere IMHO

"Penguins in the southern argentine province Patagonia on the rampage. Protests center around the recent price hikes for Chang and Singha. Gold (the metal, not the beer) skyrockets too in Buenos Aires and neighbouring Uruguay. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil orders troops to the brazilian/argentine border."

I guess you think I hope for it? I do not & hope all ends well but............

Is this something that sounds more & more familiar in more & more places?

Sure does to me

"I've just had enough of this whole thing. I don't trust the government, I don't trust the banks, I don't trust the political parties and I don't trust the IMF. We had a good country, and they ruined it."

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20090223/klein

[flying]

Another great quote from that article that could fit in many countries shoes these days........

But what's kept them going, with farmers taking the lead from students, is widespread rage at the government's crisis response: banks got a $36 billion bailout while workers got their pensions cut and farmers received next to nothing.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20090223/klein

[Naam]

Iceland is a great mini version of what to expect on larger scales elsewhere IMHO

"Penguins in the southern argentine province Patagonia on the rampage. Protests center around the recent price hikes for Chang and Singha. Gold (the metal, not the beer) skyrockets too in Buenos Aires and neighbouring Uruguay. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil orders troops to the brazilian/argentine border."

I guess you think I hope for it? I do not & hope all ends well but............

Is this something that sounds more & more familiar in more & more places? Sure does to me

"I've just had enough of this whole thing. I don't trust the government, I don't trust the banks, I don't trust the political parties and I don't trust the IMF. We had a good country, and they ruined it."

we two could form a club Flying.

[yabaaaa]

and the SET is not even close to bottoming yet............only one sentence really says it all......

“We cannot export as the whole world is in recession,” Sirivat cautioned, pointing out that exports and tourism account for 70% of Thailand’s GDP.

http://thestar.com.my/columnists/story.asp...p;sec=thaitakes

Dont you think you should he should add " to the same degree that we have been for the last "X" years" They will still export but not the same amount he makes it sound like there will be NO exports.

[londonthai]

workers from hospitality and industrial production will go back to villages to grow rice. Thai live in an extended families and will share resources, when somobody is in a dear need.

rich thai won't be jumping out, because thai banking system is healthier than american or english.

as to petty crime - it is on the rise for at least a year, since a dramatic food price hike due to fuel costs

[sorensen]

The top 1% of Thailand who make enormous profits off the 70% of Thailand's GDP are hurting, but don't shed a tear, they will be fine. The rest of the country for the most part is unaffected.

Sure.

GM to close Rayong plant

Only very rich thais work in GM factory.

More about the GM plant here: http://edition.cnn.com/video/#/video/world...i.gm.worker.cnn

[fiddlehead]

4 months ago, i went to Sedona AZ in the US.

I noticed big changes since i had been there last: Every 3rd house for sale, no one in any stores, especially construction stores like Home Depot, restaurants, people seemed scared. People talking about the economy and how they are going to survive.

Then i went to my old home in Pennsylvania which is the coal regions and a poor area of the US. Nothing seemed different at all from a year or 5 years ago. People talking about hunting, football, the new president.

Then just before Christmas, i came back to Thailand and did a 4 week, 5,000 kms road trip around Thailand. Mostly to the west and north parts of the country which is mostly farmland. Everything seemed pretty normal, people seemed happy and very friendly to us. Farmers all seemed to be busy with trucks in long lines at the sugar factories.

Then i came back to Phuket. Everyone is scared. Work is very slow. There seem to be tourists but they are not spending money.

Crime is increasing.

My point is: I think the poor people of the world are seeing no big changes here. They don't have money in the bank to lose. They have food on the table and friendly neighbors who get along.

The rich people of the world are scared however. Their money is dropping in value all the time, they are having to cut their budgets and can't go out to eat as much, can't buy the new car, can't go on vacation, and their houses are too big. Who needs 7 bathrooms for 3 people?? I understand it's for the social status but it's really BS isn't it? Certain things should not be cool anymore. Ever see someone showing off their 15 credit cards?

Hopefully the world is going to learn a few things in this recession/depression or whatever they want to call it: No. 1: no more easy credit. If you want something, save up for it and buy it. Cash is king. Stop trying to get a raise when you already make $50 an hour. Start thinking of alternative energy and try to be more self sufficient. The rich are only going to try to screw you again. Don't let them get away with it. Stop voting for crooks.

[churchill]

4 months ago, i went to Sedona AZ in the US.

I noticed big changes since i had been there last: Every 3rd house for sale, no one in any stores, especially construction stores like Home Depot, restaurants, people seemed scared. People talking about the economy and how they are going to survive.

Then i went to my old home in Pennsylvania which is the coal regions and a poor area of the US. Nothing seemed different at all from a year or 5 years ago. People talking about hunting, football, the new president.

Then just before Christmas, i came back to Thailand and did a 4 week, 5,000 kms road trip around Thailand. Mostly to the west and north parts of the country which is mostly farmland. Everything seemed pretty normal, people seemed happy and very friendly to us. Farmers all seemed to be busy with trucks in long lines at the sugar factories.

Then i came back to Phuket. Everyone is scared. Work is very slow. There seem to be tourists but they are not spending money.

Crime is increasing.

My point is: I think the poor people of the world are seeing no big changes here. They don't have money in the bank to lose. They have food on the table and friendly neighbors who get along.

The rich people of the world are scared however. Their money is dropping in value all the time, they are having to cut their budgets and can't go out to eat as much, can't buy the new car, can't go on vacation, and their houses are too big. Who needs 7 bathrooms for 3 people?? I understand it's for the social status but it's really BS isn't it? Certain things should not be cool anymore. Ever see someone showing off their 15 credit cards?

Hopefully the world is going to learn a few things in this recession/depression or whatever they want to call it: No. 1: no more easy credit. If you want something, save up for it and buy it. Cash is king. Stop trying to get a raise when you already make $50 an hour. Start thinking of alternative energy and try to be more self sufficient. The rich are only going to try to screw you again. Don't let them get away with it. Stop voting for crooks.

I agree this is going to effect mostly the west who now see pensions , property , shares falling in value . The poorer nations and people who live off the land with no debts will be becoming wealthier . and those once rich will wish they were self sufficient farmers .

[Lasic1]

Hi, this is unrelated but I'm asking for your advice. I'm coming over to BKK in May and to improve my ability to conduct communications, I'll need a cell phone. I know new ones are high priced so I'm wondering if I should consider getting a used one. Nothing fancy you know, mainly just for making calls. Where would you recommend I purchase a cell phone at? Appreciate your insight.

Thanks,

Laser

and the SET is not even close to bottoming yet............only one sentence really says it all......

"We cannot export as the whole world is in recession," Sirivat cautioned, pointing out that exports and tourism account for 70% of Thailand's GDP.

http://thestar.com.my/columnists/story.asp...p;sec=thaitakes

The top 1% of Thailand who make enormous profits off the 70% of Thailand's GDP are hurting, but don't shed a tear, they will be fine. The rest of the country for the most part is unaffected.

[flying]

Hi, this is unrelated but I'm asking for your advice. I'm coming over to BKK in May and to improve my ability to conduct communications, I'll need a cell phone. I know new ones are high priced so I'm wondering if I should consider getting a used one. Nothing fancy you know, mainly just for making calls. Where would you recommend I purchase a cell phone at? Appreciate your insight.

Thanks,

Laser

Seems like you may be in the wrong forum but..............

Dont worry about a phone you can grab a used one cheap from a lot of shops here. Any mall has probably 20 stalls

Then just grab a 300 baht sim card & pop it in your good to go.

The whole deal will probably set you back 25 bucks USD

Edited March 14, 2009 by flying

[SoiGirlHunter]

Regardless of whats about to happen, throw the rose colored glasses in the trash and prepare for the worse

[jumnien]

Hey, no need to get negative; we're at the dawn of a bright new age of opening and opportunity. And to think we're alive for it, at this time in history! Wow! Stand back and watch the miracles happen...

[sendbaht]

Take a deep breath, now exhale, and repeat.

The world is not coming to an end. The sun is going to rise tomorrow and yes it may be orange here in CM the next few weeks it's still going to rise, and the birds will sing. The cute CMU girls will drive by on their motorbikes on their way to school. Just because there is a recession doesn't mean you have to be pulled down by it. As dark as some want you to see your future, the only one in charge of it is you.

[Jake1]

Worried about Thailand when 70% of their Economy is based on Exports and Tourism? Tourist will still come but not as many, they may not be able to ship off as much food but they'll still be able to eat, life will go on. Mai Pen Rai.

Things may slow down, Condos should become cheap to purchase as farangs go broke but I believe a country like Thailand with a viable economy won't turn into complete chaos.

But when you have an economy that's GDP is 70% Consumption like my home country, the U.S...it's going to get nasty..False hopes and illusions will be crushed, the service based economy will run dry and there's nothing to export once the world starts turning again.

The masses will find out they've been lied to and they will be pissed

[imaneggspurt]

Talk to most thais about the recession and you will get a "mai pen rai,". they will just go back to the villages and live in the trees til it comes back to normal,.im tempted to join them

[mommysboy]

Talk to most thais about the recession and you will get a "mai pen rai,". they will just go back to the villages and live in the trees til it comes back to normal,.im tempted to join them

Maybe it would be best if you did this for a few weeks, might rid yourself of a few illusions about the nature oflife and about Thais.

Make no mistake, for Thailand there is one dreadful correction happening, and it will be very painful for a nation that has been softened by a false consumer boom, and weakened by awful leadership.

I mix with the 'average Thai' believe me what's happening is/will hit them hard.

Guess there is not much any govt. could do in the face of a financial tsunami such as this, but I am struck by how the UK Govt in particular has responded. What exactly has the Thai Govt done for its own?

Enjoy your tree .

[Jake1]

Maybe it would be best if you did this for a few weeks, might rid yourself of a few illusions about the nature oflife and about Thais.

Make no mistake, for Thailand there is one dreadful correction happening, and it will be very painful for a nation that has been softened by a false consumer boom, and weakened by awful leadership.

I mix with the 'average Thai' believe me what's happening is/will hit them hard.

Guess there is not much any govt. could do in the face of a financial tsunami such as this, but I am struck by how the UK Govt in particular has responded. What exactly has the Thai Govt done for its own?

Enjoy your tree .

What has the UK done besides throw fuel on the fire? "Quantintative easing" or running the print press does nothing but rob from the poor to give to the rich. It destroys the one thing the normal man has to stay on his feet..his/her "money" gets destroyed via inflation or dilution. The UK is doing wonders for their currency right now.

The best thing a Government could do when they're starring at a crisis is absolutely nothing, let the market decide what it is going to do.

[Chaimai]

Worried about Thailand when 70% of their Economy is based on Exports and Tourism? Tourist will still come but not as many, they may not be able to ship off as much food but they'll still be able to eat, life will go on. Mai Pen Rai.

TDS website:- The Thai economy is export-dependent, with exports of goods and services accounting for over 70% of GDP in 2007.

(Tourism is said to be 6%-8%)

However, 40% of the population is employed in agriculture with many on a self-sufficiency basis. More (ex) employees from industry and tourism will head back to the villages. The Thais can adapt to their financial circumstances - frugality when required, extravagence when money is free-flowing.