Gbp Heading In The Right Direction

[Merangue]

Taxexile thanks for that. Interesting reading and not what you would call alarmist. Simple facts and figures.

From my limited knowledge of finance and my slightly better knowledge of human nature, i would say it is the Industrialised export led economies that have the real impact's coming. The financial based ( EG: UK ) that have already taken the brunt of the beating they are due may see a smal recovery.

For those convinced that the Asian ecnomies will come out of this shiny and happy and strong, you seem to forget that a hel_l of a lot of the economies involved, are shaped to serve the western markets. If the West fails or even stutters the Asian Economies based on exports mostly, will falter and suffer badly.

Perhaps someone can answer this or me.

If every economy falters and falls 8-10 points where does that leave Joe Bloggs, Claude Bloggs, Heinrich Bloggs, Arty Bloggs, Shambala Bloggs, HaiChee Blogs and Tien Bloggs in the long term?

Do they all just carry on with thier lives pretty much as before but possibly tightning the belt a bit? Or does a 10 point drop = they all starve?

12Drink as usual is shouting doom and gloom. I am becoming more and more convinced he is some exiled member of the British establishment who is gleefully pointing out that which is bad in the hopes of making it worse for the UK in some way. I have a vision of a small moustachiod man, sitting behind a bank of various laptops, spreading doom and gloom on every forum that he can place his insidious belief in the deah of the UK and the new dark ages that are inevitably coming.

hel_l there may even be a book involved. Something of a Mad Max flavour but instead of the Hot dry desert landscapes, we get a 28 days later picture of a wasteland London and instead of a young heroic Mel Gibson, i can see a short balding guy with a cap and a ciggy hanging out of the side of his mouth, selling Jellied Eels.

Edited March 26, 2009 by Merangue

[ChiangMaiFun]

Useful info... but... what about the effect on GBP vs THB? (the topic of this thread)? predictions for next month or two please (not USD but GBP)

[Soutpeel]

Useful info... but... what about the effect on GBP vs THB? (the topic of this thread)? predictions for next month or two please (not USD but GBP)

GBP will weaken against the THB, THB will continue to drop against the $US

[ChiangMaiFun]

Useful info... but... what about the effect on GBP vs THB? (the topic of this thread)? predictions for next month or two please (not USD but GBP)

specifics... 50? 45? 40? and why? I think it will go up a bit to 55 - I think the UK economy is better than the doom and gloom merchants are saying and us Brits love to talk ourselves down. I cannot see why the dollar would get stronger against the THB but never mind - this thread is about GBP

[ace]

.....but after seeing that pathetic undersubscribed bond offering earlier today in G.B. it would appear that the Pound could be the first to fall......

But - doesn't the bond auction failure indicate a need to raise interest rates, thereby strengthening the currency (and further weakening the economy) ?

[Jake1]

.....but after seeing that pathetic undersubscribed bond offering earlier today in G.B. it would appear that the Pound could be the first to fall......

But - doesn't the bond auction failure indicate a need to raise interest rates, thereby strengthening the currency (and further weakening the economy) ?

The Bank of England may just print what is needed thus diluting the currency.

[lannarebirth]

you're kidding right? it was 49 two weeks ago and now 52? most analyists I talk to believe that it will go up against the THB as the THB is overvalued due to active management by the government and tied to the USD which will have to end soon as the dollar plummets - I'd be interested on what basis you think it will fall to 40 - it would be catastrophic to tourism and business and would mean a VERY storng dollar - that ain't going to happen unless you know something we all don't???

Why do you think the THB is overvalued? It has been stable against most Asian currencies for over a year, whilst the Western insolvent economies have caused the Western currencies to fall. See my post from yesterday in the original GBP/THB thread.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thai-Baht-Gb...13#entry2615213

And maybe continue the discussion there?

The problem is that the THB is being artificially propped up - 'managed' in other words - I'm sure if it were left to the market it would crash - tourism down 30%? exports down etc. etc. it's all got to come home to roost at some stage - and anyway I wasn't particualry commenting on the strength of the Thai economy but rather suggesting that the dollar will reduce and the GBP will strength - we are at 52 today and I was only saying 55 is reasonable within the next month - the response that it will fall to 40 is absurd- I have copied this into the other thread - maybe I should have stuck to that one apologies if I started another...

All major currencies are "managed" to a degree. The GBP is only on the cusp of no longer being a "major" currency IMO. It could go to 40 easily, and maybe even 60, but it's toast.

[ChiangMaiFun]

you're kidding right? it was 49 two weeks ago and now 52? most analyists I talk to believe that it will go up against the THB as the THB is overvalued due to active management by the government and tied to the USD which will have to end soon as the dollar plummets - I'd be interested on what basis you think it will fall to 40 - it would be catastrophic to tourism and business and would mean a VERY storng dollar - that ain't going to happen unless you know something we all don't???

Why do you think the THB is overvalued? It has been stable against most Asian currencies for over a year, whilst the Western insolvent economies have caused the Western currencies to fall. See my post from yesterday in the original GBP/THB thread.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thai-Baht-Gb...13#entry2615213

And maybe continue the discussion there?

The problem is that the THB is being artificially propped up - 'managed' in other words - I'm sure if it were left to the market it would crash - tourism down 30%? exports down etc. etc. it's all got to come home to roost at some stage - and anyway I wasn't particualry commenting on the strength of the Thai economy but rather suggesting that the dollar will reduce and the GBP will strength - we are at 52 today and I was only saying 55 is reasonable within the next month - the response that it will fall to 40 is absurd- I have copied this into the other thread - maybe I should have stuck to that one apologies if I started another...

All major currencies are "managed" to a degree. The GBP is only on the cusp of no longer being a "major" currency IMO. It could go to 40 easily, and maybe even 60, but it's toast.

Not quiet sure what you mean? 40 maybe 60?

[12DrinkMore]

There are now a couple of TVers who believe that all I spread is doom and gloom and then some more. Well, I have some good news at last!

Consumers still saved more money during the quarter. The household savings ratio rose to 4.8 percent, the most since the first three months of 2006, from 1.7 percent in the third quarter, the statistics office said.

Hmm, but pity about all the other bad news it was wrapped in.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aZtgamsmkWJ0

Don't bother to go there if you want good news. For that I would recommend

http://www.globalgoodnews.com/

:D :D

[mommysboy]

I disagree Drinkmore, not with some of your salient views but with your overall stance which seems to be what you want more than anything else.

I repeat most economies are in big trouble. The fact that some economies may have bigger problems than others does not win any argument about Thailand not being in deep trouble too, today's round of headlines alone should convince you of this. Moreover you have repeatedly avoided the issue of time lag.

I think it is going to be difficult to convince you that Thailand, or rather Asia, is far better positioned to come out of this crisis than the West is. You have obviously read a few of my previous posts, so know where I am coming from and how I try to justify my opinion.

I have looked around today's headlines and not seen anything to change my point of view. Maybe you could post a few links. I am always interested in learning more and seeing where all this mess is heading to.

Time Lag. Well, presumably you are referring to the delay before the shit hits the fan here? I think that the biggest time delayed problems are in the UK, US and a little way behind the other Western countries. They are

- massive budget deficits

- the increasing reluctance of Asia to fund the decadent Western lifestyles

- the huge pension time bomb just about to explode

- and the currency killer, Quantitative Easing

As I have already posted several times, Asia has the world's manufacturing capacity, the trading surpluses, the huge foreign currency reserves, no consumer debts (in comparison to the West), no pension time bomb, no residential and now wait for it, commercial property price collapse, no banking failures, no incredible bank bailout numbers, and a huge huge undeveloped market of consumers eager for a Western lifestyle (even if they don't know it yet) and prepared to work towards it. And governmental policies aimed at increasing the wealth of the populations.

I am convinced that the dependency of the East on the Western consumer will be reduced considerably over the next decade. The Asians will be able to afford cars, houses, lcd TVs and holidays in Asia. Surely you cannot overlook the immense development that China has made over the last two decades?

...quote

Moving back to the pound's recovery, clearly the market disagrees with your assessment. Moreover can we clarify? you seem to believe UK is finished for all time!

.../quote

What! A tiddly two percent increase inline with the Euro and other currencies after Bernanke suddenly sprung the trillion USD Sale of the Century of toxic crap? Which, if it succeeds, will through the magic of fractional banking, put one trillion USDs into the banks multiplied by whatever they reserve requirement is, giving up to 30,000,000,000,000 of new credit and USDs available? No wonder the USD has sagged. I wonder what the Chinese will do now?

Well anyway, did you catch

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

March 25 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. failed to find enough buyers for 1.75 billion pounds ($2.55 billion) of bonds for the first time in almost seven years as debt investors repudiated Prime Minister Gordon Brown's plan to stem the worst economic crisis in three decades.

I really think you are now way off any reasonable stance! I'd be interested to hear what your interest is?

My interest in all this is to understand what the fukc is happening, why I, after saving all my life, have lost a large chunk of cash to bail out the fukcing UK banking system and Brown's economy. And what I need to do in order to prevent the rest of my money from being destroyed by these bastards. I am too old to find another job and start saving again.

So, my stance is that Brown has fukced up and the UK economy is heading into the darkest depression the world has seen. The US is able to take liberties because the de facto reserve currency is still the USD, although this could easily change in a few years. A lot of countries are getting seriously fed up with the current situation. The Europeans will have a hard time, but with the Germans and the French making the policy decisions and the other countries realising that being in the Euro is painful but far better than making an exit, will make the effort to survive. And back to Asia, I expect that Asia will come out of the crisis with solid economies.

So, that is more or less how I see things, based well over a decade of living in Asia and an intensive study over the last couple of years on the economics of Asia and Europe. But I may well be right out of court.

But please return me the favour and write more than two sentences saying why you don't agree with me?

(sorry about the "quotes" but TV puts a very limited restriction on the number of quotes, which I cannot understand)

You'll appreciate I don't agree with your assessment concerning Thailand, which I think is heading for a sharp dive - possibly a prolonged recession/depression. My own business has folded and my savings have been hit hard. I've lived through 3 recessions now and so I understand your angst. I'm not defending the western way- it's crap IMHO. I just think much of what you write is understated regarding Thailand, and over stated regarding the West. It's also a bit tiresome when one PM is blamed for causing the problem, I mean as if....!

I'm back in UK now (first time in 5 years). I'm struck by how things are far more efficient. There's a recession on but in all honesty it's just an unlucky percentage that seem really badly effected (I'm one). My 5 year experience of Thai products and services is that they are poor in all honesty, eg, internet- here I am in UK and it's not superfast but it's smooth, it got to the point in Bangkok where it became part-time. The biggest attraction about Thailand was price, but that's been eroded by the exchange rate- that may or may not be right, but one thing for sure it's not going to help exports any and will further hamper any sort of recovery.

I can only summarise my belief that as an export driven economy Thailand has really hit the rocks, that the full extent has not been felt due to a time lag effect. And that the multiplier effect will soon kick in, this is a knock on/domino effect.

But it's really not your impressive facts or cogent arguments, it's that IMHO you are missing the bigger picture, all economies are in the brown stuff and Thailand will be no different, and as I mentioned it might suffer worse which seems to be happening to Germany and Japan for instance. I also believe that it could be even worse in the Thai case because the Govt has not been quick to act at all and it is still a rather fragmented country with a great deal of internal problems.

I guess we need to agree to disagree, especially as we're off topic really.

[chiang mai]

Useful info... but... what about the effect on GBP vs THB? (the topic of this thread)? predictions for next month or two please (not USD but GBP)

You can borrow my Ouija board if you like, you may have better success at trying to obtain an accurate answer.

[churchill]

Useful info... but... what about the effect on GBP vs THB? (the topic of this thread)? predictions for next month or two please (not USD but GBP)

You can borrow my Ouija board if you like, you may have better success at trying to obtain an accurate answer.

OR check out Chaing Mai's thread on this subject . http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Sterling-gbp...ad-t230559.html

[12DrinkMore]

You'll appreciate I don't agree with your assessment concerning Thailand, which I think is heading for a sharp dive - possibly a prolonged recession/depression. My own business has folded and my savings have been hit hard. I've lived through 3 recessions now and so I understand your angst. I'm not defending the western way- it's crap IMHO. I just think much of what you write is understated regarding Thailand, and over stated regarding the West. It's also a bit tiresome when one PM is blamed for causing the problem, I mean as if....!

The UK and the USA were by far the worst offenders in this mess. Nothing was done to curb the dam_n bankers in their massive excesses. The European Banks that got caught out were fraudulently sold toxic waste repackaged and rated AAA.

I'm back in UK now (first time in 5 years). I'm struck by how things are far more efficient. There's a recession on but in all honesty it's just an unlucky percentage that seem really badly effected (I'm one). My 5 year experience of Thai products and services is that they are poor in all honesty, eg, internet- here I am in UK and it's not superfast but it's smooth, it got to the point in Bangkok where it became part-time. The biggest attraction about Thailand was price, but that's been eroded by the exchange rate- that may or may not be right, but one thing for sure it's not going to help exports any and will further hamper any sort of recovery.

I don't know about an unlucky percentage, but all of the Brits I know and meet are telling me it is pretty dire in the UK, and getting worse. My internet connection functions well, it has recently been upgraded free of charge. No complaints there. Granted the speed isn't the same as the UK, but possibly you are only accessing Western sites and have a more direct access to them with fewer routers in the way.

I can only summarise my belief that as an export driven economy Thailand has really hit the rocks, that the full extent has not been felt due to a time lag effect. And that the multiplier effect will soon kick in, this is a knock on/domino effect.

But it's really not your impressive facts or cogent arguments, it's that IMHO you are missing the bigger picture, all economies are in the brown stuff and Thailand will be no different, and as I mentioned it might suffer worse which seems to be happening to Germany and Japan for instance. I also believe that it could be even worse in the Thai case because the Govt has not been quick to act at all and it is still a rather fragmented country with a great deal of internal problems.

I guess we need to agree to disagree, especially as we're off topic really.

Time will tell how Thailand will suffer in comparison to the rest of the Asian countries. There is really no point in comparing to the Western countries. And as regards the internal problems, well, there has really been no change there for sixty years, every few years a coup. But the whole country is totally united behind being Thai and in respecting the King. And nothing will change that.

So I suppose we will have to wait another twelve months to see how the mess develops.

[badge]

Useful info... but... what about the effect on GBP vs THB? (the topic of this thread)? predictions for next month or two please (not USD but GBP)

I still dont understand why anyone would follow GBPTHB, even if your denominated in GBP? There are no physical flows to drive GBPUSD, its simply a product of USDTHB X GBPUSD. OR if your that way inclined, EURTHB / EURGBP.

[billd766]

Useful info... but... what about the effect on GBP vs THB? (the topic of this thread)? predictions for next month or two please (not USD but GBP)

I still dont understand why anyone would follow GBPTHB, even if your denominated in GBP? There are no physical flows to drive GBPUSD, its simply a product of USDTHB X GBPUSD. OR if your that way inclined, EURTHB / EURGBP.

The reason that I follow it is because my pensions are paid in GBP in the UK and the exchange rate directly affects my visa status as I am sure that it does for many retired Brits.

It is that I don't make a fuss or a big deal out of it.

[lannarebirth]

Useful info... but... what about the effect on GBP vs THB? (the topic of this thread)? predictions for next month or two please (not USD but GBP)

I still dont understand why anyone would follow GBPTHB, even if your denominated in GBP? There are no physical flows to drive GBPUSD, its simply a product of USDTHB X GBPUSD. OR if your that way inclined, EURTHB / EURGBP.

You're right of course and it has been pointed out numerous times in the previous 50+ threads concerning the GBP. It would seem most people don't read any posts other tha their own.

Here's a maybe. Swing lows in $USD in September, December and March all correspond to 4x expirations. All higher lows. It looks like an unwind of the prior 7 years trade going on, but as they say, time will tell:

[jackinbkk]

well this friday (27th, 9:30 GMT) you'll see UK GDP figures down and the Pound will retract most of this week's gains...

1 GBP = 51.7991 THB

As predicted

UK GDP worse than expected.

YoY -2.0%, not 1.9%

QoQ -1.6% not 1.5%

1 GBP = 50.6258 THB

and thats how fundamental currency trading can work...

This friday watch for US non farm figures, unemployment count, change in manufacturing payrolls, US average hourly earnings and of course Bernanke's speech at credit markets conference 4pm GMT

[torrenova]

Got to laugh with some posters saying they think it should go to 55 or whatever. Utter <deleted>. What justification ? well, because they think so.

That is why they drive buses and some others work on the trading floor.

[PCA]

Got to laugh with some posters saying they think it should go to 55 or whatever. Utter <deleted>. What justification ? well, because they think so.

That is why they drive buses and some others work on the trading floor.

well the guys on the t-floor don't know it either, what makes the difference is that they don't care.

[ChiangMaiFun]

Got to laugh with some posters saying they think it should go to 55 or whatever. Utter <deleted>. What justification ? well, because they think so.

That is why they drive buses and some others work on the trading floor.

Wait and see... the traders did a great job didn't they? and I don't drive a bus I was SVP for a major company but maybe driving a bus would be a more honest living than working on the trading floor

If you re-read the posts inbetween your 'laughing' you will see that the predictions for an improvement are not due yet - so don't jump the gun before laughing too loudly (and you know about who laughs last right?) - I believe the GBP will improve, over time, later this year against the THB because the Thai economy is vastly over-valued and there will be a correction.

This is an honestly held opinion (shared by many - please see other posts on other threads on same subject) and we could be wrong (of course) but time will tell. Good luck to all.

[ChiangMaiFun]

52+ today... let's hope it continues - hoping for 53+ next week and steady for awhile before hitting 54/55 in a few months

[ChiangMaiFun]

52+ today... let's hope it continues - hoping for 53+ next week and steady for awhile before hitting 54/55 in a few months

54.30 - take note Doom & Gloom merchants - I rest my case...

[phutoie2]

I have been keeping a record of Baht/GBP (sad I know!), but that's been the highest since weekending 28 Nov 08.

Todays BKB rate 53.24- TT rate 54.15.

Yesterday used my NW card at an Ayyud ATM and got 53.08.

Jolly good show.

[ChiangMaiFun]

I have been keeping a record of Baht/GBP (sad I know!), but that's been the highest since weekending 28 Nov 08.

Todays BKB rate 53.24- TT rate 54.15.

Yesterday used my NW card at an Ayyud ATM and got 53.08.

Jolly good show.

Let's hope it continues... (probably won't) but I got fed up with all these posters who said GBP was down the toilet - a minority of us predicted 54/55 around this time and we were (probably with a sprinkle of luck) right.

I would think IMHO that if someone wants to convert NOW is the time - I changed over a six figure sum at 54.30 - timing is everything DYOR Chok Dee to all... Tally Ho!

[LivinginKata]

Many GBP/Baht topics one. Time to close this one.