Caution! Nasdaq, Dow, Sp, Nikkei, Hang Seng

[Harmonica]

That was the Nasdaq Composite.

Here's the Nasdaq 100 or QQQQ

Same story.

[wimpy]

The markets are looking pretty ugly here, with lots of institutional selling showing up. I am still unwilling to commit heavily on either side.

Currently in two positions - both profitable. I have one long, (a gaming company) with very nice profits. This is one of the strongest stocks in the market. Will definitely have to keep a close eye on it, so they don't slip away. So far I haven't seen price/volume action to warrant selling. I also have one recent short, which is also profitable - so far.

Since the beginning of the year, it has been a tough market to trade - long or short. I wouldn't be surprised if that continued for some time, frustrating those looking for a big move either way. If the market does actually start trending down, there will be plenty of opportunity to put on short positions.

[Harmonica]

The markets are looking pretty ugly here, with lots of institutional selling showing up. I am still unwilling to commit heavily on either side. 

Currently in two positions - both profitable.  I have one long, (a gaming company) with very nice profits.  This is one of the strongest stocks in the market.  Will definitely have to keep a close eye on it, so they don't slip away.  So far I haven't seen price/volume action to warrant selling.  I also have one recent short, which is also profitable - so far. 

Since the beginning of the year, it has been a tough market to trade - long or short.  I wouldn't be surprised if that continued for some time, frustrating those looking for a big move either way.   If the market does actually start trending down, there will be plenty of opportunity to put on short positions.

You ain't kidding! The sideways action & intriguing volume have quite a few top-notch pros calling for more "trading range" movement -- a trader's paradise, but a test of patience for MT players.

Even my best friends .... they don't know .... that my job is .... turning Lead into Gold!

[Harmonica]

Closing ALL my Nasdaq stock SHORT positions & took-ing profits!!

Why?

I think there is going to be that FINAL rally worldwide anytime now -- starting between now & next Friday! Not sure, but how can one ever be sure about markets?

Why?

Nasdaq Composite on 200-day moving average

QQQQ within slingshot range of HUGE support @ 35.8-36.5

Mr. Jones is 100 points away from huge support (including 200-day ma)

Will now get ready to go LONG for the rally that I think is coming up.

But am not pulling the LONG trigger yet. Could happen at any time.

Adios!

[wimpy]

Hope you are right. I would find a rally very refreshing about now.

[ronz28]

Funnymentals and Technicals

I think company funnymentals are like reading the comics because you can't get the real scoop unless you are an insider and you are just being fed baloney. The charts show the supply and demand and thats what drives price. Market indexes, sectors and then the leading company. I like the 9 day moving average, slow stochastics, macd, volume, rsi, and Williams % R. I am working full time now so don't have the time to trade but once I get vested that may chage. I traded for two years and found the markets are both seasonal and cyclical and even have usual trading patterns during the day so yes they can be timed. I like the free java charts for options at

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/in...3mo&siteid=mktw

[ProThaiExpat]

Harmonica, many thanks for your latest thinking on the NADDAQ, it gives me great comfort and avoids my post asking if you think there will be a "slingshot" as you predicted last time.

Can you keep me in mnd and post when your near the top of this rally?

What, if anything, will you rely on to determine if there will be a "breakout"? As you may recall, I a waiting to bail out of my high purchase price long position.

You posts are much appreciated.

[ronz28]

A Long Term Term NASDAQ Buy/Sell Indicator

Nasdaq New Highs New Lows Ratio ($NAHLR)

http://stockcharts.com/

Buying below .06 is a sure thing but selling at the top is not as clear but there are extremes as well that can be combined with the other indicators.

Edited March 24, 2005 by ronz28

[Harmonica]

Shortsellers candy -- for the intrepid, don't ignore General Motors -- confirmed downtrend and dangerous to play LONG -- but there are terrific odds that if the stateside rally starts in the next several days, GM will shoot up to and past her 20-day Moving Average -- for a quick, sweet $3-6 supercharged blast ...

but its a very dangerous play; I'm mentioning it because it keeps me on my toes and I just love its cataclysmic drops into the dark side.

A technician's paradise of study -- is our beautiful GM.

[Harmonica]

Harmonica, many thanks for your latest thinking on the NADDAQ, it gives me great comfort and avoids my post asking if you think there will be a "slingshot" as you predicted last time. 

Can you keep me in mnd and post when your near the top of this rally?

What, if anything, will you rely on to determine if there will be a "breakout"? As you may recall, I a waiting to bail out of my high purchase price long position.

You posts are much appreciated.

Count on it, PTE.

Strategy:

Nasdaq: ..... Enter on CLOSE above the downsloping dark grey trendline shown.

QQQQ: ...... Ditto. Support =36-35.5

Combine the 2 for a power packed slingshot!

Nasdaq: Shown are 3 support levels (dashed lines) -- 2000, 1968 & 1932 approx. We know that Nas closed below the 2000 support on the last 2 consecutive days. See the green line? That's the 200-day Moving Average. Nas closed below that too, and similarly, for the last 2 consecutive days.

A note about Supports: Each support that is taken out and penetrated costs the penetrator in terms of energy and power. With each subsequently lower support penetration, a point will come where there is little power left in the downward force -- and even a weak support could then send the market into a rally.

Considerable power has already been spent at the 2000 mark and the 200-day, which lies just below. The 200-day has made me more money than I have been able to spend. Even when it is stretched it has more slingshot power than general supports. Will it rise to the occassion again?

[LivinLOS]

GE another dog of a stock... Of course day / short trades have possibility but the company has a market cap of approx 15 billion.. and it owes 300 billion..

ha ha ha Let me say that again.. It owes 20 times its entire market cap !!! And people buy it !!!

[LivinLOS]

thats housl of course be GM.. Fingers doing the walking..

Also why cant you edit and delete posts on this baord

[Harmonica]

GE another dog of a stock... Of course day / short trades have possibility but the company has a market cap of approx 15 billion.. and it owes 300 billion..

ha ha ha Let me say that again.. It owes 20 times its entire market cap !!! And people buy it !!!

That is the nature of markets and that's why fundamental cats like you are rarely on the right side of the market -- until you understand this one thing (see below), you will always sound like a wailing banshee in the wilderness.

The markets are purely "psychological" -- a sort of collective mindset of the entire investing public; earnings, even though logical to draw the inference, have doodly squat to do with a markets' rise and fall. History has shown that many times in the past, CORPORATE EARNINGS & STOCK MARKET were moving inversely to each other.

The way investors subconsciously view FUTURE PROSPECTS is the key -- and this is what shows up on charts; the actual footprints of buyers and sellers, not their hocus-pocus talk; talk is cheap and misleading; but when bought or sold, a stock shows the buyer/seller's intentions CLEARLY!

Money talks, bullsh*t walks! Remember?

GM has 302 billion in debt. and is the 2nd biggest in-hock outfit in history.

So what? There will be rallies and collapses until there is a reversal of fortune or bankruptcy!!

Play the stock, make money and leave the "WHY" to Moses, who it seems is not coming back here anymore -- the behaviour of the Israelis has turned him off!

[Harmonica]

Closing ALL my Nasdaq stock  SHORT positions  &  took-ing  profits!!

Why?

I think there is going to be that FINAL rally  worldwide anytime now -- starting between now & next Friday!  Not sure, but how can one ever be sure about markets?

Why?

Nasdaq Composite on 200-day moving average

QQQQ within slingshot range of HUGE support @  35.8-36.5

Mr. Jones is 100 points away from huge support (including 200-day ma)

Will now get ready to go LONG for the rally that I think is coming up.

But am not pulling the LONG trigger yet.  Could happen at any time.

Adios!     

See what I mean about the power of the 200-day moving average?

"Even my best friends don't know that my job is turning Lead into Gold"!

[wimpy]

See what I mean about the power of the 200-day moving average? 

"Even my best friends don't know that my job is turning Lead into Gold"!   

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Pretty feeble rally attempt volume wise though. My feeling is we go lower.

[Harmonica]

See what I mean about the power of the 200-day moving average?  

"Even my best friends don't know that my job is turning Lead into Gold"!    

Pretty feeble rally attempt volume wise though. My feeling is we go lower.

Feeble attempt volumewise?

Then look at the volume of both the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100.

Yesterday's Dow Jones volume is higher than ANY day's volume of the ENTIRE rally since October 25th, 2004.

Yesterday's Nas 100 volume is up there wih the finest of the rally day volumes of the same rally, ranking probaly 6th out of how many trading days' volume? Do the math.

Even if we go lower, the Entry SIGNAL has been issued, IMHO.

If unsure, use tight stoploss.

[wimpy]

I don't pay much attention to the Dow volume figures. Being only 30 stocks, I just don't give it much weight.

Volume was down from the prior day on the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500, the S&P600 (which was leading the recent rally), and the NYSE index. This NOT what I like to see on an attempted rally.

This rally may be alright for a short term play, but I am an intermediate term trader.

Now, if the (broad) market can follow through with a large price increase and an increase in volume from the previous day, I will become much more positive.

[wimpy]

Harmonica,

Do you pay attention to the market volitility index? I plot Bollinger bands on it. When it reaches the upper band, the S&P has often made a move up. I don't base trading decisions on this, but the correlation seems pretty high, and it is something I keep an eye on. If the pattern were to continue, a rally would be in order about now.

[Harmonica]

Wimpy,

Concur! Now you're talking. I most certainly do use volatility studies (market volatility, Vix & VXN) and I agree with the use of Bolinger Bands.

As you know, I am already in the market for a few days ... LONG . I do not hold any short positions currently.

Its got to take off soon and give us a rally -- I've got reasonable positions open, but will quadruple when market proves me right.

I see you use Metastock Professional -- I use the end-of-day version as I don't trade real-time.

Which outfit do you get your real-time data from?

Goodluck.

[Harmonica]

We remain LONG but .......

in the midst of all the excitement (or boredom, depending on how one looks at the current juncture), may I remind anybody reading this and participating in the market about a highly recommended Insurance Policy.

Refer to Dow Jones chart below:

Extreme danger if the following occurs:

January 24th closing low of 10,368.61 is violated on a closing basis.

The weekly support @ 10,350 is violated on a closing basis.

The 200-day moving average is violated on a closing basis.

If all 3 conditions are met, I will swallow my pride and close all LONGS.

Regards

[Harmonica]

Nasdaq composite closed above the 200-day moving average, but the folks at CNBC have not noticed it yet; neither have the fellas at Bloomberg. I ain't telling them.

Stay alert.

[wimpy]

Wimpy,

Concur!  Now you're talking.  I most certainly do use volatility studies (market volatility,  Vix & VXN) and I agree with the use of Bolinger Bands.

As you know, I am already in the market for a few days ...  LONG .  I do not hold any short positions currently.

Its got to take off soon and give us a rally -- I've got reasonable positions open, but will quadruple when market proves me right.

I see you use Metastock Professional -- I use the end-of-day version as I don't trade real-time.

Which outfit do you get your real-time data from?

Goodluck.   

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually, I use Metastock as an end of day app as well.

My broker, Interactive Brokers, provides an excellent real-time data stream, but it is not compatible with Metastock. The data is compatible with Medved Quote Tracker, which I use for intraday charts and watch lists.

[wimpy]

We remain LONG but .......

in the midst of all the excitement (or boredom, depending on how one looks at the current juncture), may I remind anybody reading this and participating in the market about a highly recommended Insurance Policy.

Refer to Dow Jones chart below:

Extreme danger if the following occurs:

January 24th closing low of 10,368.61 is violated on a closing basis.

The weekly support @ 10,350 is violated on a closing basis.

The 200-day moving average is violated on a closing basis.

If all 3 conditions are met, I will swallow my pride and close all LONGS.

Regards 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It will be interesting if we build a right shoulder here, and this thing then breaks down. Hope not. I much prefer being long.

[Harmonica]

The shoulder (right) is the rally I've been calling as I do believe the pattern will be completed and the neckline broken. But we've got to create the shoulder first.

Signs to watch for will be the feeble volume during its formation and then the heavy vol at or right after the neckline break!

[Harmonica]

Are we having fun yet?

The market has been open for about 45 minutes -- I like what I see and I'm going to bed soon.

Adios

[Harmonica]

Good thing I went to bed early.

Nasdaq gave up her gains and closed flat. I'm still in & LONG! No reason to change!

But I think I know why the market is stymied!!

The Nasdaq 100 and the SOX (Philapdelphia Semicondictor Index) are both struggling to climb back over the 200-day. That's what's holding us up now.

As soon as they get over this hurdle there should be nothing stopping Nas.

She is the boss, but I can have an opinion and that's all it is!

[chippendalesam]

Good thing I went to bed early. 

Nasdaq gave up her gains and closed flat.  I'm still in & LONG! No reason to change!

But I think I know why the market is stymied!!

The Nasdaq 100 and the SOX (Philapdelphia Semicondictor Index) are both struggling to climb back over the 200-day.  That's what's holding us up now.

As soon as they get over this hurdle there should be nothing stopping  Nas.

She is the boss, but I can have an opinion and that's all it is! 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[chippendalesam]

Good thing I went to bed early. 

Nasdaq gave up her gains and closed flat.  I'm still in & LONG! No reason to change!

But I think I know why the market is stymied!!

The Nasdaq 100 and the SOX (Philapdelphia Semicondictor Index) are both struggling to climb back over the 200-day.  That's what's holding us up now.

As soon as they get over this hurdle there should be nothing stopping  Nas.

She is the boss, but I can have an opinion and that's all it is! 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think U were pleased with the nasdaq today, +19.65, and the QQQQ over 37 in after hours trades. I M long QQQQ also. Good-luck!!!!!!

[Harmonica]

Good thing I went to bed early.  

Nasdaq gave up her gains and closed flat.  I'm still in & LONG! No reason to change!

But I think I know why the market is stymied!!

The Nasdaq 100 and the SOX (Philapdelphia Semicondictor Index) are both struggling to climb back over the 200-day.  That's what's holding us up now.

As soon as they get over this hurdle there should be nothing stopping  Nas.

She is the boss, but I can have an opinion and that's all it is!  

I think U were pleased with the nasdaq today, +19.65, and the QQQQ over 37 in after hours trades. I M long QQQQ also. Good-luck!!!!!!

Yes, I am pleased.

All the best to you too!

[Harmonica]

We remain LONG but .......

in the midst of all the excitement (or boredom, depending on how one looks at the current juncture), may I remind anybody reading this and participating in the market about a highly recommended Insurance Policy.

Refer to Dow Jones chart below:

Extreme danger if the following occurs:

January 24th closing low of 10,368.61 is violated on a closing basis.

The weekly support @ 10,350 is violated on a closing basis.

The 200-day moving average is violated on a closing basis.

If all 3 conditions are met, I will swallow my pride and close all LONGS.

Regards 

Current LONG positions show:

QQQQ ...... net loss 26 cents per share

2 individual stocks +ve gain of $1.95 & $ 2.46 per share respectively.

But the QQQQ position is larger so Net profit is at $ 1.01 per share.

No change. Position remains open & LONG!

There is considerable support @ 34.6-36 -- if/when the 200-day + support combo slingshots, I will triple my QQQQ position thus lowering my average entry down to very close to the current shelf of support.

That is the updated plan!

Dow Jones and S&P500 remain above the 200-day! That is my "Ace in the hole" --should that change, I'll have to retreat to my fully stocked bear cave in a hurry! But not till then. Current position rides market money at the moment!

Hehehehe