Emergency Laws In Pattaya Lifted

[mc2]

In basic summary NOTHING that has happened since the coup is legitimate, and this is the crux of the problem. The 2006 Coup was against the law and a treasonous act according to the in place "Peoples Constitution of 1997".

Simply because they replaced it with a new constitution that was only just managed to get through a referendum that was held under Martial Law in places, with the Coup leaders spending lots of money "educating" villagers to accept it and with a blanket Army order to vote yes and with the threat that "if you do not accept it there will not be an election for many years".

Just because they did that, does not take away from the fact that all goings on since the 2006 coup have been illegal under the previous constitution. And so everything since that date has no legitimacy and its why the country is now totally messed up.

A simple summary of events could be (and there is no implication this is actually what happened, its for discussion purposes only) -

Thaksin was getting too powerful and well liked.

Thaksin was clamping down on corruption of the Elites.

Thaksin was spreading the money out to the people, like Robin Hood, take it from the top level Elite and give to the lower levels and spread the wealth.

This upset the Elite.

They paid big money for a coup.

The coup happened, it was illegal under the previous constitution so that had to be thrown in the bin to remove the "treason" from the coup.

The Elite who paid big money wanted Thaksin "disgraced, humbled and if possible dead as well".

The Coup leaders appointed new judges, made up a new department to find Thaksin guilty of everything possible they could make up, invent, think of.

A new constitution was rammed down the peoples throats, along with the banning of most of Thaksin's party (TRT) so that the Dems would win the election.

The Dems failed to win the election, the Elite big money that was behind the coup and the new constitution were totally upset.

The big money Elite then backs the PAD to bring down all who stand in the way of getting the Dems into power.

Dissolve them, ban them, water them down, buy them into a coalition, we do not care but the Dems MUST be in power.

Whatever way the big money Elite want the Dems in power, and finally get what they want.

But it goes wrong as some common people have woken up to whats going on, Thaksin in an act of revenge starts telling information about the system and how it works and who pulls what strings, the people knew that in their minds but finally get someone on the inside to say it in public. This acts as a catalyst for those who want more, and not less, democracy. Although many do not support Thaksin, they realise that by joining his bandwagon they can achieve more for the good of the common rural poor than they can by being a dissenting voice on their own. The movement snowballs.

"Average Man" knows that's going on and supports the reds, but is fed up of all of the goings on, so he keeps quiet and turns a blind eye, if he meets a Yellow he bemoans the Reds, if he meets a Red he supports them, but turn on the TV in the privacy of his own home and he cheers the Reds and hope they win.

"Average Man" knows his place in society, he has been beaten into it over many years, if he scratches an Elites 7 series BMW he knows he might be killed for it, if he bumps into Elites "mia noi number 1" then he knows he could be in big trouble, if he were ever to be seen not supporting the views of the local Elites representative, he knows his family will be in big trouble. Such is the life of the "Average Man", he is a slave under the system and too scared to have a voice. Farangs moan about why "Average Man" does not do more about whats going on, but Farang can run away, "Average Man" must face the consequences of poverty or death or beatings for his action.

SO WHAT HAPPENS NEXT –

DON'T CARE – the Elite tell the Democrats to just get on with it and ignore everything that's going on around them. "We don't care about the unwashed", continue as normal and it will all just die away in time, and if it does not then who cares anyway, we are still ok. Abhisit is replaced with an ex-military strongman. This causes more public backlash as Mr Nice Guy is gone and more people join the reds.

COUP VERSION A – this is the coup again sponsored by the big money Elite, they pay for another coup and this time totally remove the voting rights of the people. An appointed government will bring in that all future elections will only represent 30% of the parliament. The direct appointed 70% retain always the power, and the Elite for ever more have the power and control, and no nasty Thaksin like people can ever threaten them again. This is more open that simply pulling the strings of the puppet Democrat government, and does not hide under the guise of democracy they have at the moment with the Democrats. "Coup A" amends the 2008 Coup constitution to stop democracy for ever more.

COUP VERSION B – a section of the military finally has enough of the way the Elite are causing the destruction to Thailand simply to get the power back in their hands and remove the democracy from the people (or someone like Thaksin pays them). They side with Thaksin and unite together to once and for all rid Thailand of some of the most evil elements of the Elite. Its not the perfect situation but certainly finally gives the people of Thailand more power than they ever had before. This "Coup B" wipes all slates clean and reinstates the 1997 constitution.

Coup version A might be forced to happen. The Elite know fully well that the soldiers and police are mostly North and North Eastern/Eastern men and women. This is the majority of the Thai population and the poorest area's, so it's the natural recruitment base. These people know what Thaksin did for their hometowns and villages and families, and so have no fight against him or the TRT/PPP/PTP/ Reds.

When the Yellows protested the police/soldiers could not disobey orders and so were powerless. Any action against direct orders to take no action would land them in hot water.

When the Reds protest the police/soldiers agree with them, and so will not do anything against them, and no general is willing to officially give an order to kill, as they know they will be blamed later. With no official orders the soldiers and police will happily stand around doing nothing.

I think a Coup is perhaps the only way out of this now at this juncture without knowing further events, it allows slates to be wiped clean, or it allows people to remove democracy totally. One is going to happen, will it be slate clean, or dead democracy. The immediate future is very interesting. We are actually witnessing now the first ever battle of wills between the "common people" and the "Elite".

The worry is of course that "Coup A" could lead to a civilian uprising, the "civil war" some people speak about. To finally have to show their hand, to have to visibly and openly take away the freedoms and rights of the people, it might be the "straw that breaks the camels back" and the "great unwashed" finally rise up against the Elite.

As the Chinese say, "May you live in interesting times". These certainly are interesting times.

good analysis

[Tokay]

well, as I surmise from gadgetsdirect's comment - he was referring to BEFORE yesterday, the events on Friday evening.

you though are trying to prove him wrong by telling your story of yesterday, Saturday morning - right ?

so, you're talking about 2 different things, you and him.

I neither saw any reports anywhere (either Thai media or blogs or witnesses as you on Forums) that Reds were armed on Fri night.

therefore I still believe that gadgetsdirect's comment "blue's who were the only group carrying weapons" is correct, in reference to the events of Fri night.

and I don't think it doesn't matter - I think it matters a lot ! coz were those Blue not armed and not attacked Reds on Fri night, or even better if were NO ANY Blue there on Fri night -

Reds would have retreated and kept their promise NOT to disrupt the Summit.

so, Blue attack on Fir night DOES matter a lot actually - Summit could have been held today !

in fact even after that clash - if only Abhisit met Reds' demand to arrest gunmen, or at least PRETENDED trying, instead of totally ignoring them.

You may be correct. I am talking about Saturday only and may be confusing some posts here with people talking about Friday.

[Old Man River]

In basic summary NOTHING that has happened since the coup is legitimate, and this is the crux of the problem. The 2006 Coup was against the law and a treasonous act according to the in place "Peoples Constitution of 1997".

Simply because they replaced it with a new constitution that was only just managed to get through a referendum that was held under Martial Law in places, with the Coup leaders spending lots of money "educating" villagers to accept it and with a blanket Army order to vote yes and with the threat that "if you do not accept it there will not be an election for many years".

Just because they did that, does not take away from the fact that all goings on since the 2006 coup have been illegal under the previous constitution. And so everything since that date has no legitimacy and its why the country is now totally messed up.

A simple summary of events could be (and there is no implication this is actually what happened, its for discussion purposes only) -

Thaksin was getting too powerful and well liked.

Thaksin was clamping down on corruption of the Elites.

Thaksin was spreading the money out to the people, like Robin Hood, take it from the top level Elite and give to the lower levels and spread the wealth.

This upset the Elite.

They paid big money for a coup.

The coup happened, it was illegal under the previous constitution so that had to be thrown in the bin to remove the "treason" from the coup.

The Elite who paid big money wanted Thaksin "disgraced, humbled and if possible dead as well".

The Coup leaders appointed new judges, made up a new department to find Thaksin guilty of everything possible they could make up, invent, think of.

A new constitution was rammed down the peoples throats, along with the banning of most of Thaksin's party (TRT) so that the Dems would win the election.

The Dems failed to win the election, the Elite big money that was behind the coup and the new constitution were totally upset.

The big money Elite then backs the PAD to bring down all who stand in the way of getting the Dems into power.

Dissolve them, ban them, water them down, buy them into a coalition, we do not care but the Dems MUST be in power.

Whatever way the big money Elite want the Dems in power, and finally get what they want.

But it goes wrong as some common people have woken up to whats going on, Thaksin in an act of revenge starts telling information about the system and how it works and who pulls what strings, the people knew that in their minds but finally get someone on the inside to say it in public. This acts as a catalyst for those who want more, and not less, democracy. Although many do not support Thaksin, they realise that by joining his bandwagon they can achieve more for the good of the common rural poor than they can by being a dissenting voice on their own. The movement snowballs.

"Average Man" knows that's going on and supports the reds, but is fed up of all of the goings on, so he keeps quiet and turns a blind eye, if he meets a Yellow he bemoans the Reds, if he meets a Red he supports them, but turn on the TV in the privacy of his own home and he cheers the Reds and hope they win.

"Average Man" knows his place in society, he has been beaten into it over many years, if he scratches an Elites 7 series BMW he knows he might be killed for it, if he bumps into Elites "mia noi number 1" then he knows he could be in big trouble, if he were ever to be seen not supporting the views of the local Elites representative, he knows his family will be in big trouble. Such is the life of the "Average Man", he is a slave under the system and too scared to have a voice. Farangs moan about why "Average Man" does not do more about whats going on, but Farang can run away, "Average Man" must face the consequences of poverty or death or beatings for his action.

SO WHAT HAPPENS NEXT –

DON'T CARE – the Elite tell the Democrats to just get on with it and ignore everything that's going on around them. "We don't care about the unwashed", continue as normal and it will all just die away in time, and if it does not then who cares anyway, we are still ok. Abhisit is replaced with an ex-military strongman. This causes more public backlash as Mr Nice Guy is gone and more people join the reds.

COUP VERSION A – this is the coup again sponsored by the big money Elite, they pay for another coup and this time totally remove the voting rights of the people. An appointed government will bring in that all future elections will only represent 30% of the parliament. The direct appointed 70% retain always the power, and the Elite for ever more have the power and control, and no nasty Thaksin like people can ever threaten them again. This is more open that simply pulling the strings of the puppet Democrat government, and does not hide under the guise of democracy they have at the moment with the Democrats. "Coup A" amends the 2008 Coup constitution to stop democracy for ever more.

COUP VERSION B – a section of the military finally has enough of the way the Elite are causing the destruction to Thailand simply to get the power back in their hands and remove the democracy from the people (or someone like Thaksin pays them). They side with Thaksin and unite together to once and for all rid Thailand of some of the most evil elements of the Elite. Its not the perfect situation but certainly finally gives the people of Thailand more power than they ever had before. This "Coup B" wipes all slates clean and reinstates the 1997 constitution.

Coup version A might be forced to happen. The Elite know fully well that the soldiers and police are mostly North and North Eastern/Eastern men and women. This is the majority of the Thai population and the poorest area's, so it's the natural recruitment base. These people know what Thaksin did for their hometowns and villages and families, and so have no fight against him or the TRT/PPP/PTP/ Reds.

When the Yellows protested the police/soldiers could not disobey orders and so were powerless. Any action against direct orders to take no action would land them in hot water.

When the Reds protest the police/soldiers agree with them, and so will not do anything against them, and no general is willing to officially give an order to kill, as they know they will be blamed later. With no official orders the soldiers and police will happily stand around doing nothing.

I think a Coup is perhaps the only way out of this now at this juncture without knowing further events, it allows slates to be wiped clean, or it allows people to remove democracy totally. One is going to happen, will it be slate clean, or dead democracy. The immediate future is very interesting. We are actually witnessing now the first ever battle of wills between the "common people" and the "Elite".

The worry is of course that "Coup A" could lead to a civilian uprising, the "civil war" some people speak about. To finally have to show their hand, to have to visibly and openly take away the freedoms and rights of the people, it might be the "straw that breaks the camels back" and the "great unwashed" finally rise up against the Elite.

As the Chinese say, "May you live in interesting times". These certainly are interesting times.

good analysis

Rubbish. its premise is rubbish (Thaksin stamping out corruption) and it goes downhill from there.

[Old Man River]

Are the blue shirts a new group or have they been around for a while .

I have never heard of them what are there political beliefs or do they just like to throw things at other political groups?

Does anyone have any thoughts of what the future brings to buetiful thailand?

They were Newin's security forces to try and safeguard world leaders from the Red shirted mob.

The future will bring a jail cell to the red's leaders for inciting insurrection and treason.

Edited April 12, 2009 by Old Man River

[Thai at Heart]

There seem to be a lot of news and articles out today regarding Newin being on the ground in Pattaya directing operations.

As well as Suthep and Police Chief (who is defense minister's brother) inspecting the hotel beforehand.

Here he is on the back of a motorbike.

Matichon article in Thai about Newin's role and the blue shirts.

Matichon

This is from the Nation, more about Newin's role

Nation

Newin shows his hand as blue-shirts' boss

Published on April 12, 2009

The appearance of the blue-shirt protesters yesterday was not unprecedented. The group showed up on March 26 vowing to prevent the red-shirts from laying siege to Suvarnabhumi Airport. Members of the blue-shirts are believed to be Interior Ministry volunteers and canvassers for the Bhum Jai Thai party, and party leader Newin Chidchob is believed to be pulling the strings. With King Power as a major financier of his party, Newin cannot afford to see the red-shirts besiege the airport.

Though the blue-shirts have the clear objective of opposing the red-shirts and protecting the government, this time the arrival of the blue-shirts was different, because Newin showed up and joined Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban in inspecting the meeting area on Friday. The blue-shirts' status as a government force was open.

"There were not just volunteers from Chon Buri; plain-clothes police and military officials were among them,'' a police source said.

Using mobsters to confront mobsters is not a good strategy or a good method to disperse protesters; on the contrary, it fuels violence. Undeniably the use of the blue-shirts was a big mistake.

Newin denied he was behind the blue-shirts, saying he was in Pattaya to help if the situation turned ugly as he knew some leaders of the red-shirts and might mediate a solution.

He said security officials had not moved in because they did not want to clash with protesters. "It is not a matter of how many security officials are deployed now but what is the goal of the protest leaders and how they pursue that goal,'' he said.

During the confrontations between the blue-shirts and red-shirts yesterday morning, reporters saw Newin instructing the blue-shirts by phone not to let the red-shirts into the hotel area. Then he was seen taking a motorcycle to the scene to give orders in person.

excellent info !

somebody asked what does he gain from it?

its more about what he has to lose -

his political future rests on the continuity of this goverment

he is branded a traitor by the other side. if a Thaksin gov get back in power - its payback time to newin

Obviously he has a lot to lose, but hasn't he heard of things like closed rooms. Why be so public about his involvement? I can't see that being attached personally and provably to this can be of any benefit to him. Maybe he wants a gold star for effort.

[Old Man River]

I was on top of the hill today with my camera when the two clashed. I can tell you, with media to back up my statements, the red shirts went to the hill armed with clubs, sticks with nails in them, garden hoes, sling shots, metal poles, beer bottles and I even saw a few of them with swords. They were even trying to provoke the blues before it all started. The guys on the front lines did not go in peace.

They only ditched the weapons after they defeated the blue shirts and came to the military line, which at that point rumors started to fly that the military had guns drawn. I did not see this but this was the rumor among the red shirts and they QUICKLY threw their weapons into the grass and loaded them into trucks and taxis to be taken away.

A first hand account by a non biased foreigner who was at the scene. Then Jakropob (top Red leader) goes international and talks to the international press saying how peacefull his Reds were and how the Blues attacked them.

Believe what you wish, but remember there are several other eye witness accounts similar to Tokay's.

[mc2]

Are the blue shirts a new group or have they been around for a while .

I have never heard of them what are there political beliefs or do they just like to throw things at other political groups?

Does anyone have any thoughts of what the future brings to buetiful thailand?

They were Newin's security forces to try and safeguard world leaders from the Red shirted mob.

The future will bring a jail cell to the red's leaders for inciting insurrection and treason.

is that before or after the PAD leaders are jailed ? , when thats going to happen

[seri thai]

In basic summary NOTHING that has happened since the coup is legitimate, and this is the crux of the problem. The 2006 Coup was against the law and a treasonous act according to the in place "Peoples Constitution of 1997".

Simply because they replaced it with a new constitution that was only just managed to get through a referendum that was held under Martial Law in places, with the Coup leaders spending lots of money "educating" villagers to accept it and with a blanket Army order to vote yes and with the threat that "if you do not accept it there will not be an election for many years".

Just because they did that, does not take away from the fact that all goings on since the 2006 coup have been illegal under the previous constitution. And so everything since that date has no legitimacy and its why the country is now totally messed up.

A simple summary of events could be (and there is no implication this is actually what happened, its for discussion purposes only) -

Thaksin was getting too powerful and well liked.

Thaksin was clamping down on corruption of the Elites.

Thaksin was spreading the money out to the people, like Robin Hood, take it from the top level Elite and give to the lower levels and spread the wealth.

This upset the Elite.

They paid big money for a coup.

The coup happened, it was illegal under the previous constitution so that had to be thrown in the bin to remove the "treason" from the coup.

The Elite who paid big money wanted Thaksin "disgraced, humbled and if possible dead as well".

The Coup leaders appointed new judges, made up a new department to find Thaksin guilty of everything possible they could make up, invent, think of.

A new constitution was rammed down the peoples throats, along with the banning of most of Thaksin's party (TRT) so that the Dems would win the election.

The Dems failed to win the election, the Elite big money that was behind the coup and the new constitution were totally upset.

The big money Elite then backs the PAD to bring down all who stand in the way of getting the Dems into power.

Dissolve them, ban them, water them down, buy them into a coalition, we do not care but the Dems MUST be in power.

Whatever way the big money Elite want the Dems in power, and finally get what they want.

But it goes wrong as some common people have woken up to whats going on, Thaksin in an act of revenge starts telling information about the system and how it works and who pulls what strings, the people knew that in their minds but finally get someone on the inside to say it in public. This acts as a catalyst for those who want more, and not less, democracy. Although many do not support Thaksin, they realise that by joining his bandwagon they can achieve more for the good of the common rural poor than they can by being a dissenting voice on their own. The movement snowballs.

"Average Man" knows that's going on and supports the reds, but is fed up of all of the goings on, so he keeps quiet and turns a blind eye, if he meets a Yellow he bemoans the Reds, if he meets a Red he supports them, but turn on the TV in the privacy of his own home and he cheers the Reds and hope they win.

"Average Man" knows his place in society, he has been beaten into it over many years, if he scratches an Elites 7 series BMW he knows he might be killed for it, if he bumps into Elites "mia noi number 1" then he knows he could be in big trouble, if he were ever to be seen not supporting the views of the local Elites representative, he knows his family will be in big trouble. Such is the life of the "Average Man", he is a slave under the system and too scared to have a voice. Farangs moan about why "Average Man" does not do more about whats going on, but Farang can run away, "Average Man" must face the consequences of poverty or death or beatings for his action.

SO WHAT HAPPENS NEXT –

DON'T CARE – the Elite tell the Democrats to just get on with it and ignore everything that's going on around them. "We don't care about the unwashed", continue as normal and it will all just die away in time, and if it does not then who cares anyway, we are still ok. Abhisit is replaced with an ex-military strongman. This causes more public backlash as Mr Nice Guy is gone and more people join the reds.

COUP VERSION A – this is the coup again sponsored by the big money Elite, they pay for another coup and this time totally remove the voting rights of the people. An appointed government will bring in that all future elections will only represent 30% of the parliament. The direct appointed 70% retain always the power, and the Elite for ever more have the power and control, and no nasty Thaksin like people can ever threaten them again. This is more open that simply pulling the strings of the puppet Democrat government, and does not hide under the guise of democracy they have at the moment with the Democrats. "Coup A" amends the 2008 Coup constitution to stop democracy for ever more.

COUP VERSION B – a section of the military finally has enough of the way the Elite are causing the destruction to Thailand simply to get the power back in their hands and remove the democracy from the people (or someone like Thaksin pays them). They side with Thaksin and unite together to once and for all rid Thailand of some of the most evil elements of the Elite. Its not the perfect situation but certainly finally gives the people of Thailand more power than they ever had before. This "Coup B" wipes all slates clean and reinstates the 1997 constitution.

Coup version A might be forced to happen. The Elite know fully well that the soldiers and police are mostly North and North Eastern/Eastern men and women. This is the majority of the Thai population and the poorest area's, so it's the natural recruitment base. These people know what Thaksin did for their hometowns and villages and families, and so have no fight against him or the TRT/PPP/PTP/ Reds.

When the Yellows protested the police/soldiers could not disobey orders and so were powerless. Any action against direct orders to take no action would land them in hot water.

When the Reds protest the police/soldiers agree with them, and so will not do anything against them, and no general is willing to officially give an order to kill, as they know they will be blamed later. With no official orders the soldiers and police will happily stand around doing nothing.

I think a Coup is perhaps the only way out of this now at this juncture without knowing further events, it allows slates to be wiped clean, or it allows people to remove democracy totally. One is going to happen, will it be slate clean, or dead democracy. The immediate future is very interesting. We are actually witnessing now the first ever battle of wills between the "common people" and the "Elite".

The worry is of course that "Coup A" could lead to a civilian uprising, the "civil war" some people speak about. To finally have to show their hand, to have to visibly and openly take away the freedoms and rights of the people, it might be the "straw that breaks the camels back" and the "great unwashed" finally rise up against the Elite.

As the Chinese say, "May you live in interesting times". These certainly are interesting times.

good analysis

Rubbish. its premise is rubbish (Thaksin stamping out corruption) and it goes downhill from there.

Dont throw out the baby with the bathwater! IMO It's a good analysis but I'd add the rider that Thaksin was crimping the old orders influence and income and diverting it to himself and his new order. For the man on the street there is little to choose between either regime. The question is where does the real liberation come from. There is no real social change or development on offer here, only changes in ownership. I don't believe Thaksin could be trusted to live up to his own promises in the long term as absolute power corrupts absolutely and he was 90% corrupt when he started. I'd also question whether the future scenario options (bleak as they are) are the only options.

Anglos and anglophiles tend to root for Abhisit because they understand what he says and he has the Blair/Clinton charisma. He should certainly take Kasits job! In fact maybe they should switch roles.

Kasit can foam and shout Samak style and Abhisit can smooth it over for the foreign press The thais will have the strongman they admire and the Fahrangs their PR.

Incidentally I see CNN are spot on as usual:

Thousands of "red shirt" protesters, named for the color of their attire

,

[seri thai]

In basic summary NOTHING that has happened since the coup is legitimate, and this is the crux of the problem. The 2006 Coup was against the law and a treasonous act according to the in place "Peoples Constitution of 1997".

Simply because they replaced it with a new constitution that was only just managed to get through a referendum that was held under Martial Law in places, with the Coup leaders spending lots of money "educating" villagers to accept it and with a blanket Army order to vote yes and with the threat that "if you do not accept it there will not be an election for many years".

Just because they did that, does not take away from the fact that all goings on since the 2006 coup have been illegal under the previous constitution. And so everything since that date has no legitimacy and its why the country is now totally messed up.

A simple summary of events could be (and there is no implication this is actually what happened, its for discussion purposes only) -

Thaksin was getting too powerful and well liked.

Thaksin was clamping down on corruption of the Elites.

Thaksin was spreading the money out to the people, like Robin Hood, take it from the top level Elite and give to the lower levels and spread the wealth.

This upset the Elite.

They paid big money for a coup.

The coup happened, it was illegal under the previous constitution so that had to be thrown in the bin to remove the "treason" from the coup.

The Elite who paid big money wanted Thaksin "disgraced, humbled and if possible dead as well".

The Coup leaders appointed new judges, made up a new department to find Thaksin guilty of everything possible they could make up, invent, think of.

A new constitution was rammed down the peoples throats, along with the banning of most of Thaksin's party (TRT) so that the Dems would win the election.

The Dems failed to win the election, the Elite big money that was behind the coup and the new constitution were totally upset.

The big money Elite then backs the PAD to bring down all who stand in the way of getting the Dems into power.

Dissolve them, ban them, water them down, buy them into a coalition, we do not care but the Dems MUST be in power.

Whatever way the big money Elite want the Dems in power, and finally get what they want.

But it goes wrong as some common people have woken up to whats going on, Thaksin in an act of revenge starts telling information about the system and how it works and who pulls what strings, the people knew that in their minds but finally get someone on the inside to say it in public. This acts as a catalyst for those who want more, and not less, democracy. Although many do not support Thaksin, they realise that by joining his bandwagon they can achieve more for the good of the common rural poor than they can by being a dissenting voice on their own. The movement snowballs.

"Average Man" knows that's going on and supports the reds, but is fed up of all of the goings on, so he keeps quiet and turns a blind eye, if he meets a Yellow he bemoans the Reds, if he meets a Red he supports them, but turn on the TV in the privacy of his own home and he cheers the Reds and hope they win.

"Average Man" knows his place in society, he has been beaten into it over many years, if he scratches an Elites 7 series BMW he knows he might be killed for it, if he bumps into Elites "mia noi number 1" then he knows he could be in big trouble, if he were ever to be seen not supporting the views of the local Elites representative, he knows his family will be in big trouble. Such is the life of the "Average Man", he is a slave under the system and too scared to have a voice. Farangs moan about why "Average Man" does not do more about whats going on, but Farang can run away, "Average Man" must face the consequences of poverty or death or beatings for his action.

SO WHAT HAPPENS NEXT –

DON'T CARE – the Elite tell the Democrats to just get on with it and ignore everything that's going on around them. "We don't care about the unwashed", continue as normal and it will all just die away in time, and if it does not then who cares anyway, we are still ok. Abhisit is replaced with an ex-military strongman. This causes more public backlash as Mr Nice Guy is gone and more people join the reds.

COUP VERSION A – this is the coup again sponsored by the big money Elite, they pay for another coup and this time totally remove the voting rights of the people. An appointed government will bring in that all future elections will only represent 30% of the parliament. The direct appointed 70% retain always the power, and the Elite for ever more have the power and control, and no nasty Thaksin like people can ever threaten them again. This is more open that simply pulling the strings of the puppet Democrat government, and does not hide under the guise of democracy they have at the moment with the Democrats. "Coup A" amends the 2008 Coup constitution to stop democracy for ever more.

COUP VERSION B – a section of the military finally has enough of the way the Elite are causing the destruction to Thailand simply to get the power back in their hands and remove the democracy from the people (or someone like Thaksin pays them). They side with Thaksin and unite together to once and for all rid Thailand of some of the most evil elements of the Elite. Its not the perfect situation but certainly finally gives the people of Thailand more power than they ever had before. This "Coup B" wipes all slates clean and reinstates the 1997 constitution.

Coup version A might be forced to happen. The Elite know fully well that the soldiers and police are mostly North and North Eastern/Eastern men and women. This is the majority of the Thai population and the poorest area's, so it's the natural recruitment base. These people know what Thaksin did for their hometowns and villages and families, and so have no fight against him or the TRT/PPP/PTP/ Reds.

When the Yellows protested the police/soldiers could not disobey orders and so were powerless. Any action against direct orders to take no action would land them in hot water.

When the Reds protest the police/soldiers agree with them, and so will not do anything against them, and no general is willing to officially give an order to kill, as they know they will be blamed later. With no official orders the soldiers and police will happily stand around doing nothing.

I think a Coup is perhaps the only way out of this now at this juncture without knowing further events, it allows slates to be wiped clean, or it allows people to remove democracy totally. One is going to happen, will it be slate clean, or dead democracy. The immediate future is very interesting. We are actually witnessing now the first ever battle of wills between the "common people" and the "Elite".

The worry is of course that "Coup A" could lead to a civilian uprising, the "civil war" some people speak about. To finally have to show their hand, to have to visibly and openly take away the freedoms and rights of the people, it might be the "straw that breaks the camels back" and the "great unwashed" finally rise up against the Elite.

As the Chinese say, "May you live in interesting times". These certainly are interesting times.

good analysis

Rubbish. its premise is rubbish (Thaksin stamping out corruption) and it goes downhill from there.

Dont throw out the baby with the bathwater! IMO It's a good analysis but I'd add the rider that Thaksin was crimping the old orders influence and income and diverting it to himself and his new order. For the man on the street there is little to choose between either regime. The question is where does the real liberation come from. There is no real social change or development on offer here, only changes in ownership. I don't believe Thaksin could be trusted to live up to his own promises in the long term as absolute power corrupts absolutely and he was 90% corrupt when he started. I'd also question whether the future scenario options (bleak as they are) are the only options.

Anglos and anglophiles tend to root for Abhisit because they understand what he says and he has the Blair/Clinton charisma. He should certainly take Kasits job! In fact maybe they should switch roles.

Kasit can foam and shout Samak style and Abhisit can smooth it over for the foreign press The thais will have the strongman they admire and the Fahrangs their PR.

Incidentally I see CNN are spot on as usual:

Thousands of "red shirt" protesters, named for the color of their attire

,

[Old Man River]

In basic summary NOTHING that has happened since the coup is legitimate, and this is the crux of the problem. The 2006 Coup was against the law and a treasonous act according to the in place "Peoples Constitution of 1997".

Simply because they replaced it with a new constitution that was only just managed to get through a referendum that was held under Martial Law in places, with the Coup leaders spending lots of money "educating" villagers to accept it and with a blanket Army order to vote yes and with the threat that "if you do not accept it there will not be an election for many years".

Just because they did that, does not take away from the fact that all goings on since the 2006 coup have been illegal under the previous constitution. And so everything since that date has no legitimacy and its why the country is now totally messed up.

A simple summary of events could be (and there is no implication this is actually what happened, its for discussion purposes only) -

Thaksin was getting too powerful and well liked.

Thaksin was clamping down on corruption of the Elites.

Thaksin was spreading the money out to the people, like Robin Hood, take it from the top level Elite and give to the lower levels and spread the wealth.

This upset the Elite.

They paid big money for a coup.

The coup happened, it was illegal under the previous constitution so that had to be thrown in the bin to remove the "treason" from the coup.

The Elite who paid big money wanted Thaksin "disgraced, humbled and if possible dead as well".

The Coup leaders appointed new judges, made up a new department to find Thaksin guilty of everything possible they could make up, invent, think of.

A new constitution was rammed down the peoples throats, along with the banning of most of Thaksin's party (TRT) so that the Dems would win the election.

The Dems failed to win the election, the Elite big money that was behind the coup and the new constitution were totally upset.

The big money Elite then backs the PAD to bring down all who stand in the way of getting the Dems into power.

Dissolve them, ban them, water them down, buy them into a coalition, we do not care but the Dems MUST be in power.

Whatever way the big money Elite want the Dems in power, and finally get what they want.

But it goes wrong as some common people have woken up to whats going on, Thaksin in an act of revenge starts telling information about the system and how it works and who pulls what strings, the people knew that in their minds but finally get someone on the inside to say it in public. This acts as a catalyst for those who want more, and not less, democracy. Although many do not support Thaksin, they realise that by joining his bandwagon they can achieve more for the good of the common rural poor than they can by being a dissenting voice on their own. The movement snowballs.

"Average Man" knows that's going on and supports the reds, but is fed up of all of the goings on, so he keeps quiet and turns a blind eye, if he meets a Yellow he bemoans the Reds, if he meets a Red he supports them, but turn on the TV in the privacy of his own home and he cheers the Reds and hope they win.

"Average Man" knows his place in society, he has been beaten into it over many years, if he scratches an Elites 7 series BMW he knows he might be killed for it, if he bumps into Elites "mia noi number 1" then he knows he could be in big trouble, if he were ever to be seen not supporting the views of the local Elites representative, he knows his family will be in big trouble. Such is the life of the "Average Man", he is a slave under the system and too scared to have a voice. Farangs moan about why "Average Man" does not do more about whats going on, but Farang can run away, "Average Man" must face the consequences of poverty or death or beatings for his action.

SO WHAT HAPPENS NEXT –

DON'T CARE – the Elite tell the Democrats to just get on with it and ignore everything that's going on around them. "We don't care about the unwashed", continue as normal and it will all just die away in time, and if it does not then who cares anyway, we are still ok. Abhisit is replaced with an ex-military strongman. This causes more public backlash as Mr Nice Guy is gone and more people join the reds.

COUP VERSION A – this is the coup again sponsored by the big money Elite, they pay for another coup and this time totally remove the voting rights of the people. An appointed government will bring in that all future elections will only represent 30% of the parliament. The direct appointed 70% retain always the power, and the Elite for ever more have the power and control, and no nasty Thaksin like people can ever threaten them again. This is more open that simply pulling the strings of the puppet Democrat government, and does not hide under the guise of democracy they have at the moment with the Democrats. "Coup A" amends the 2008 Coup constitution to stop democracy for ever more.

COUP VERSION B – a section of the military finally has enough of the way the Elite are causing the destruction to Thailand simply to get the power back in their hands and remove the democracy from the people (or someone like Thaksin pays them). They side with Thaksin and unite together to once and for all rid Thailand of some of the most evil elements of the Elite. Its not the perfect situation but certainly finally gives the people of Thailand more power than they ever had before. This "Coup B" wipes all slates clean and reinstates the 1997 constitution.

Coup version A might be forced to happen. The Elite know fully well that the soldiers and police are mostly North and North Eastern/Eastern men and women. This is the majority of the Thai population and the poorest area's, so it's the natural recruitment base. These people know what Thaksin did for their hometowns and villages and families, and so have no fight against him or the TRT/PPP/PTP/ Reds.

When the Yellows protested the police/soldiers could not disobey orders and so were powerless. Any action against direct orders to take no action would land them in hot water.

When the Reds protest the police/soldiers agree with them, and so will not do anything against them, and no general is willing to officially give an order to kill, as they know they will be blamed later. With no official orders the soldiers and police will happily stand around doing nothing.

I think a Coup is perhaps the only way out of this now at this juncture without knowing further events, it allows slates to be wiped clean, or it allows people to remove democracy totally. One is going to happen, will it be slate clean, or dead democracy. The immediate future is very interesting. We are actually witnessing now the first ever battle of wills between the "common people" and the "Elite".

The worry is of course that "Coup A" could lead to a civilian uprising, the "civil war" some people speak about. To finally have to show their hand, to have to visibly and openly take away the freedoms and rights of the people, it might be the "straw that breaks the camels back" and the "great unwashed" finally rise up against the Elite.

As the Chinese say, "May you live in interesting times". These certainly are interesting times.

good analysis

Rubbish. its premise is rubbish (Thaksin stamping out corruption) and it goes downhill from there.

Dont throw out the baby with the bathwater! IMO It's a good analysis but I'd add the rider that Thaksin was crimping the old orders influence and income and diverting it to himself and his new order. For the man on the street there is little to choose between either regime. The question is where does the real liberation come from. There is no real social change or development on offer here, only changes in ownership. I don't believe Thaksin could be trusted to live up to his own promises in the long term as absolute power corrupts absolutely and he was 90% corrupt when he started. I'd also question whether the future scenario options (bleak as they are) are the only options.

Anglos and anglophiles tend to root for Abhisit because they understand what he says and he has the Blair/Clinton charisma. He should certainly take Kasits job! In fact maybe they should switch roles.

Kasit can foam and shout Samak style and Abhisit can smooth it over for the foreign press The thais will have the strongman they admire and the Fahrangs their PR.

Incidentally I see CNN are spot on as usual:

Thousands of "red shirt" protesters, named for the color of their attire

,

There is no baby in this bath water. It is pure rubbish. Thaksin, a robin hood stealing from the rich and giving to the poor. Come on! He got richer and left the poor with rising debt to buy his mobile phones. This is a Robin Hood?

This guy has a problem with the 2007 constitution. Does he not know who signed it into law?

He thinks the Reds are the common rural poor seeking more democracy. Rubbish. The reds mostly come from Bangkok and surrounding areas and drive their cars to the demonstrations in the evenings. How did he miss this? This isn't about democracy for the common person. It never was. This is all about a few republicans (including Thaksin) seeking to overthrow the aristocracy and take control of everything they control. See Penkair's remarks to the international press yesterday and maybe you will figure it out.

This will all be over soon, thankfully.

Edited April 12, 2009 by Old Man River

[CarlYaz]

Well, this is getting tedious as several of you say very little constructive but think that debating and discussion is about dissecting the content of others' ideas instead.

For the record, I am a trained psychologist with a classical education and yes, I went to Cambridge. No big deal for me so don't even bother to comment on that but I tell you only to point out I have spent many years in that field and related subjects like anthropology and sociology. If you don't like proper argument which comes from proper education, no problem but then do not engage me. Thesis, antithesis and then synthesis each time and I do not ramble, you do...

It is fact that certain races, cultures and even genders are different. Smarter, more imaginative or even more malevolent at certain ages. Fact. Look it up and stop being so PC dim. All the girls are taller at 11 than the boys and smarter... In certain South American countries they have a third sex... The male sex is the prominent one at embryonic stage but by death is out-numbered by the female 2:1... Middle Eastern people have lower spacial awareness skills... Do I Need to go on... This is all in 'general'. I knew very smart PhD students from Thailand too. But general makes the population and if you look at the normal distribution, steroetypes are rarely wrong...

So, Thais are gentle. Score highly for EQ but not for IQ... Generally.. And have a low IQ Generally.... fact...

I do not look down on them. I feel sorry for them as this is a result of centuruies of deprivation and abuse by the ruling families from BKK but rather than support the casue of their repression, I want them to get them emancipation and have a working brain to think for themselves. That's so bad....?

My wife is Thai and I love here dearly as she knows her strengths and weaknesses. She is not the smartest tool in the box and she does not try to be but she has other very admirable and worthy traits and is a wonderful mother.

My son is already showing signs of being very bright even at 7 months so I am glad he has a good brain and good looks. A banana as the HK say - yellow on the outside but white on the inside. Yes, shock, horror, that's what they say in HK as they are plainly far more liberated and tolerant and not to be so PC to be stuck up their arse as in going-noand I will ensure he understands morals.

I love many aspects of Thailand but certainly not the inane stupidity of the farang who think they are soooo Thai but are just really unabel to think for themselves.

Grow up some of you and stop getting personal and if you have the guts explain your own beliefs to this level of detail, please do! Otherwise, stop being cynical and petty. We are all here to debate and we all have different views but there is no point being here if you cannot respect others and be honest to your own beliefs.

If you spend your time picking through others' posts looking for weakness, that makes you very, very weak indeed...

Did anyone else's jaw drop lower and lower as they read through that, or was it just me?

You are certainly not alone.

Shockingly distorted and racist views as well as misrepresentation of scientific findings.

If they represent his true feelings in real life, I feel sorry for his wife and family.

[Chaimai]

This will all be over soon, thankfully.

OMR - can I ask which bit you think will be over soon. I picture several more episodes yet, are you suggesting a quicker solution ?

[CrossBones]

Well, this is getting tedious as several of you say very little constructive but think that debating and discussion is about dissecting the content of others' ideas instead.

For the record, I am a trained psychologist with a classical education and yes, I went to Cambridge. No big deal for me so don't even bother to comment on that but I tell you only to point out I have spent many years in that field and related subjects like anthropology and sociology. If you don't like proper argument which comes from proper education, no problem but then do not engage me. Thesis, antithesis and then synthesis each time and I do not ramble, you do...

It is fact that certain races, cultures and even genders are different. Smarter, more imaginative or even more malevolent at certain ages. Fact. Look it up and stop being so PC dim. All the girls are taller at 11 than the boys and smarter... In certain South American countries they have a third sex... The male sex is the prominent one at embryonic stage but by death is out-numbered by the female 2:1... Middle Eastern people have lower spacial awareness skills... Do I Need to go on... This is all in 'general'. I knew very smart PhD students from Thailand too. But general makes the population and if you look at the normal distribution, steroetypes are rarely wrong...

So, Thais are gentle. Score highly for EQ but not for IQ... Generally.. And have a low IQ Generally.... fact...

I do not look down on them. I feel sorry for them as this is a result of centuruies of deprivation and abuse by the ruling families from BKK but rather than support the casue of their repression, I want them to get them emancipation and have a working brain to think for themselves. That's so bad....?

My wife is Thai and I love here dearly as she knows her strengths and weaknesses. She is not the smartest tool in the box and she does not try to be but she has other very admirable and worthy traits and is a wonderful mother.

My son is already showing signs of being very bright even at 7 months so I am glad he has a good brain and good looks. A banana as the HK say - yellow on the outside but white on the inside. Yes, shock, horror, that's what they say in HK as they are plainly far more liberated and tolerant and not to be so PC to be stuck up their arse as in going-noand I will ensure he understands morals.

I love many aspects of Thailand but certainly not the inane stupidity of the farang who think they are soooo Thai but are just really unabel to think for themselves.

Grow up some of you and stop getting personal and if you have the guts explain your own beliefs to this level of detail, please do! Otherwise, stop being cynical and petty. We are all here to debate and we all have different views but there is no point being here if you cannot respect others and be honest to your own beliefs.

If you spend your time picking through others' posts looking for weakness, that makes you very, very weak indeed...

Did anyone else's jaw drop lower and lower as they read through that, or was it just me?

You are certainly not alone.

Shockingly distorted and racist views as well as misrepresentation of scientific findings.

If they represent his true feelings in real life, I feel sorry for his wife and family.

Rich thais are superior to most farangs, because they have been selectively bred.

[cmsally]

Good question as to why Newin was so public about his support.

My supposition is that the PAD is now a fractured movement and also of no use in the present turn of events.

Perhaps Newin is sending a message to anyone thinking of resurrecting it on their own whim. He is saying Yellow now passe and blue shirts now in place as the red opposition.

Whether anyone has actually sat down to wonder if the majority of the Thai population can see all the way through this cloaking of power and orders, is of course another matter! Maybe they all do reside on planet Zog!

Maybe they actually assume that with the opposition having its roots in Buriram, the heat is off the BKK elite. There might actually be some people stupid enough to assume that.

Newin also will want to let his backers know that the airport is safe. Having paved the way this far for them , he wouldn't want to be seen as leaving the road to the airport wide open.

As for Thaksin, there is no doubt that he was not whiter than snow. But you have a fairly accepted premise that anybody who makes it to the top in Thai politics will certainly have their faults.

He was however the first Thai PM from outside the BKK elite and military to wield any considerable power and many people respect him for that.

As for the republican argument, I don't agree, it is far more complicated than that and of course can't be discussed which simply fuels the fire. You will find the fiery accusations exist on both sides, the military and hardcore politicians can also be interpreted in many ways.

[Penquin]

SNAP ANALYSIS-Thai PM's options narrow after summit fiasco

Sat Apr 11, 2009 7:14am EDT

[-] Text [+] By Vithoon Amorn

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's decision to declare a state of emergency around a canceled Asian summit has narrowed his options in dealing with anti-government protesters and raises questions about whether he has the backing of the military.

Political developments in the next 48 hours could determine the fate of his four-month-old coalition government.

Here are some possible consequences:

* The degree of enforcement by security forces of the emergency will determine Abhisit's largely untested leadership, and whether he can keep the emboldened, largely rural supporters of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra under control.

* Abhisit has been considerably weakened by his failure to stop the demonstrators getting anywhere near the summit, which will be interpreted as a sign of indecisiveness even if the aim was to avoid bloodshed.

* Abhisit's gamble on invoking an emergency risks fomenting widespread civil strife with unpredictable consequences if the military fails to stand firmly behind him.

* Bloodshed following any crackdown on Thaksin's red-shirted supporters will put pressure on Abhisit to step down and call a snap election, or let Thailand's fractious parliament choose a successor.

* Bloodshed could even lead to the military stepping in and mounting another coup, after the one in 2006 that ousted Thaksin, although the army has made it clear repeatedly during months of unrest that it did not want to get involved in politics again.

* Any snap election raises prospects of political parties backing Thaksin emerging winners, which would pave the way for the return of the former leader, who lives in exile after fleeing to escape a two-year jail term for abuse of power. This would like trigger a fresh series of mass protests.

* Abhisit's mistake in underestimating the protesters weakens his political standing and threatens his leadership of the Democrat Party.

* The demonstration by the "red shirts" had been largely peaceful until the arrival on the scene of a mysterious group of blue-shirted, pro-government protesters, their faces covered and armed with clubs and slingshots, which they used. Abhisit will have to address rumors that these were military personnel, used by the authorities to do their dirty work while the police and troops followed orders not to use violence.

(Editing by Alan Raybould)

[h90]

Good question as to why Newin was so public about his support.

My supposition is that the PAD is now a fractured movement and also of no use in the present turn of events.

PAD does not seem to be fractured at the moment. Just they don't do anything at the moment.

Fighting with the reds for a PM who does not support them and with a police which supports the red seems like suicide.

Sondhi told the supporters: stay at home, don't do anything but be ready (standby).

[Steve2UK]

well, as I surmise from gadgetsdirect's comment - he was referring to BEFORE yesterday, the events on Friday evening.

you though are trying to prove him wrong by telling your story of yesterday, Saturday morning - right ?

so, you're talking about 2 different things, you and him.

I neither saw any reports anywhere (either Thai media or blogs or witnesses as you on Forums) that Reds were armed on Fri night.

therefore I still believe that gadgetsdirect's comment "blue's who were the only group carrying weapons" is correct, in reference to the events of Fri night.

and I don't think it doesn't matter - I think it matters a lot ! coz were those Blue not armed and not attacked Reds on Fri night, or even better if were NO ANY Blue there on Fri night -

Reds would have retreated and kept their promise NOT to disrupt the Summit.

so, Blue attack on Fir night DOES matter a lot actually - Summit could have been held today !

in fact even after that clash - if only Abhisit met Reds' demand to arrest gunmen, or at least PRETENDED trying, instead of totally ignoring them.

You may be correct. I am talking about Saturday only and may be confusing some posts here with people talking about Friday.

Kudos to Tokay for being honest and courageous enough to say this - a very rare sight on here.

[Old Man River]

This will all be over soon, thankfully.

OMR - can I ask which bit you think will be over soon. I picture several more episodes yet, are you suggesting a quicker solution ?

My view is that the PC's will be better protected which means the Red's leaders will be put in jail shortly. Going forward, the play for power will continue, but with a coalition government in power that is as it was before this mob went on a rampage. So nothing new here, although I suspect the military will take a stronger position.

The question is whether Abhisit will be replaced (rumors are that he will) and then by who? Rumors are that it will be a military man. Time will tell.

[donx]

Good question as to why Newin was so public about his support.

My supposition is that the PAD is now a fractured movement and also of no use in the present turn of events.

PAD does not seem to be fractured at the moment. Just they don't do anything at the moment.

Fighting with the reds for a PM who does not support them and with a police which supports the red seems like suicide.

Sondhi told the supporters: stay at home, don't do anything but be ready (standby).

If it is true that the PAD don't support this PM because he doesn't support them, then I see little chance that Abhisit can remain in power for very much longer.

[cmsally]

I have just heard that Arisman (red shirt leader who led Pattaya yesterday) has been arrested. Red shirts have given 3hrs for him to be released and if not will take over provincial offices.

Can anyone confirm this?

[chefshane]

No PM of Thailand can ever win with some of you armchair farang commentators.

[LevelHead]

There is no baby in this bath water. It is pure rubbish. Thaksin, a robin hood stealing from the rich and giving to the poor. Come on! He got richer and left the poor with rising debt to buy his mobile phones. This is a Robin Hood?

This guy has a problem with the 2007 constitution. Does he not know who signed it into law?

He thinks the Reds are the common rural poor seeking more democracy. Rubbish. The reds mostly come from Bangkok and surrounding areas and drive their cars to the demonstrations in the evenings. How did he miss this? This isn't about democracy for the common person. It never was. This is all about a few republicans (including Thaksin) seeking to overthrow the aristocracy and take control of everything they control. See Penkair's remarks to the international press yesterday and maybe you will figure it out.

This will all be over soon, thankfully.

Sadly OldMadRiver is one of the hardcore Yellows who will never change their mind or allow free thought.

I posted "Thaksin took from the rich Elite and gave to the lower levels to spread it".

OMR says "gave to the poor".

No, I did not say that. He spread it about to the levels below the Elite, which in turn spread it out amongst more people by the chain reaction, as opposed to it being taken all by just a very few uber rich elite.

OMR says Thaksin did not crack down on corruption, he did, in a big way, but he cracked down the Elite and allowed a lot more lower level fingers in the pie. You cannot take a society that is used to total corruption and make it clean in one foul swoop. What you can do is spread it out more and more until so many fingers are in the pie that its so diluted that finally it becomes of no real importance, and from that stage, you clean it up.

The drugs trade is run by the Elite, how on earth do you think all the drugs get into Thailand and transported so easily around the place. Are the Army so useless they cannot patrol the borders or are they turning a blind eye on purpose? You choose! This was the first big run in between Thaksin and the Elite......by clamping down on drugs it stopped their income from this illicit trade and this was the first stage of upsetting them. Its well documented how the drugs factories in Burma run at very low production levels once the crackdown was in place.

OMR might have Democrat connections, or their business may be suited to have Dems in power, but do not let these people with their lies and unproven allegations cloud peoples minds.

Thaksin has never been proven to have taken any money for himself. And until such time as he is, he is innocent of any charges of taking money for himself.

One must be very careful not to allow the "anti-Thaksin" hype and propoganda to cloud the real issue and problem, and that is of course the 2006 coup and all events that followed.

Thailand needs its 1997 Peoples constitution back really.

[LevelHead]

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingne...-Pattaya-rallie

Legal actions against wrongdoers in Pattaya rallies will be carried out in 3 or 4 days

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said Sunday that legal actions against wrongdoers in the Pattaya demonstrations in a few days.

The prime minister said an arrest warrant has been obtained for the arrest of a leader of the red-shirted demonstrations in Pattaya Saturday.

He said his government would make sure that no more law violations by the protesters would happen.

The government would use drastic measures to prevent more wrongdoings and to return normality to the country.

He said the government would ensure that the rule of law would prevail.

He also urged the red-shirted leaders should stop inciting the people to violate the laws.

[LevelHead]

Oh dear. I think someone is digging a large hole to jump into.

PAD cannot be brought to justice due to the long delays, months, years, in the legal procedure in Thailand excuse...............

Reds can be processed in a couple of days no problem.

[Chaimai]

This will all be over soon, thankfully.

OMR - can I ask which bit you think will be over soon. I picture several more episodes yet, are you suggesting a quicker solution ?

My view is that the PC's will be better protected which means the Red's leaders will be put in jail shortly. Going forward, the play for power will continue, but with a coalition government in power that is as it was before this mob went on a rampage. So nothing new here, although I suspect the military will take a stronger position.

The question is whether Abhisit will be replaced (rumors are that he will) and then by who? Rumors are that it will be a military man. Time will tell.

Thanks - unless he is truly ineffectual, I see no benefit in replacing Abhisit. He seems to have a decent media image and appears to be liked by the outside world - I accept that is a Western viewpoint so it will count for little. The international stage has little relevance to the current play.

I would have thought that a new election is the last thing that is needed right now (I know you did not suggest an election would take place) as this would simply give Taksin a larger stage to shout from. Stringing Taksin out longer would surely continue to weaken his already weakening position ?

Whilst the 'red' agenda was to achieve Abhisit's resignation - not cancellation of the Asean summit - they have therefore 'failed'. What is Taksin's likely next step - having failed himself to spark the peoples' uprising that he so desperately wants.

[hanuman1]

I have just heard that Arisman (red shirt leader who led Pattaya yesterday) has been arrested. Red shirts have given 3hrs for him to be released and if not will take over provincial offices.

Can anyone confirm this?

Yes, this news came through about half an hour ago via the Red's SMS news updates. At last we're seeing some movement in this fruitless standoff.

[Koo82]

Oh dear. I think someone is digging a large hole to jump into.

PAD cannot be brought to justice due to the long delays, months, years, in the legal procedure in Thailand excuse...............

Reds can be processed in a couple of days no problem.

They just blocked Arisamun's house and caught him.

The reds are threatening to get Arisamun back within 3 hours or Abhisit will be sorry.

Arisamun led the reds to protest at Royal Cliff Beach Resort yesterday.

[krystian]

Oh dear. I think someone is digging a large hole to jump into.

PAD cannot be brought to justice due to the long delays, months, years, in the legal procedure in Thailand excuse...............

Reds can be processed in a couple of days no problem.

They just blocked Arisamun's house and caught him.

The reds are threatening to get Arisamun back within 3 hours or Abhisit will be sorry.

Arisamun led the reds to protest at Royal Cliff Beach Resort yesterday.

Embarasing for the whole thai nation,,, release him or else!!!!!

[LevelHead]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7995027.stm

Summit feast for troops and staff

8,000 police and soldiers had been mobilised to protect Asean leaders

Soldiers, reporters and minor officials tucked into a gourmet feast prepared for the Asean summit in Thailand after leaders had to abandon the meeting.

The summit was cancelled and leaders were evacuated after demonstrators stormed the venue in Pattaya.

But their dinner had already been cooked and paid for - and plenty of people were prepared to enjoy it.

Waitresses served Thai delicacies to the group of troops, journalists and summit staff in a 700-seat ballroom.

"The hotel charged us. We have to pay anyway," Suhat Sungchaya, who helped organise the dinner for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told the Associated Press news agency.

"So that is why we decided to invite the people behind the scenes."

The menu included catfish salad, lobster and shrimp satay, as well as red and white wine.

"I'm sorry for the leaders," ministry intern Suthanthip Sararith told AP. "Thailand is famous for its food."

"They can't eat all this great food. At least we get the chance to see how it tastes."

[LevelHead]

http://nganadeeleg.blogspot.com/2009/04/ab...old-you-so.html

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Abhisit: I told you so!

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The Abhisit governments handling of security matters for the ASEAN summit can only be described as a sick joke.

The need to avoid bloodshed is a lame excuse when it comes to blatant lawlessness.

The previous PPP governments were hamstrung in dealing with the PAD because they were scared of any incidents that would derail their ultimate goal of whitewashing Thaksin, and deep down they knew they had not addressed the genuine concerns of the PAD.

Now the Abhisit government has also been hamstrung by a guilty conscience about the way the coalition came about, and the fact that they know they had not properly addressed the genuine concerns of the reds.

Abhisit - mate, if only you read my blog, I could have saved you a lot of trouble!

Here's a reminder of what I advised back in January and February:

"Just like the PPP led government failed to act in a reasonable and competent manner, this current Democrat led government is doing the same.

Abhisit appears reasonable with his smooth talking, but it's actions that count in the long run.

The handling of the Rohingya issue looks bad from an outsiders perspective, but I could imagine it would have been handled even worse by a Samak or Thaksin PM.

(It should also be remembered that the initial boat people incident happened in December when the new government had just taken over, so it could hardly be Democrat policy that caused the scandal)

There are, however, other things that the Democrat led government has had more control over, and it is the handling of those matters that has shown that they are hardly any better than their predecessors:

- Kasit as FM

(his past words mean he has to go, and they have missed their opportunity to do it quietly in the interests of reconciliation)

- PAD leaders to be held accountable

(even if the airport occupation charges are still being investigated, surely there are still outstanding charges from the government house occupation that can be acted upon in the meantime - IMO, getting Sondhi L in jail will go a long way towards moving the country forward)

- Lese Majeste & Internet crackdown

(looked at on it's own, without consideration of the political realities, the Democrats handling of this matter has been disgraceful - IMO, they should be setting a positive example and leading the debate on how to have the LM laws changed so that the monarchy can be kept out of politics)

- Reconciliation, Political/Constitutional reform

(on this matter, the Democrats have again let political considerations get in the way of simply doing what's right - IMO, they should work with the opposition to get a satisfactory amnesty bill and to get a consultative process going for constitutional reform)

This is what I said when Samak was removed:

"Samak is gone - even though the cooking show trigger for his demise was nonsensical, I wont be shedding a tear for him - had his chances to be reasonable, he wasn't, so I say good riddance!"

It is not hard to foresee a day when I will be saying something similar for Abhisit.

OK, I will try again. Here's my new advice to you - assuming you are still in power as I write this, and assuming of course, that you are now ready to start listening to me

1. Kasit must go (you now have another opportunity to do it, in the interests of reconciliation)

2. You must agree to liaise with the opposition regarding the amnesty bill

(basically the 111 banned politicians to have their political rights reinstated, draw a line in the sand and give blanket amnesty to all protest leaders except any who can be directly implicated in any criminal activity, and also to the pending LM & Computer crime cases)

3. Initiate a complete round of political reform, including using the 1997 constitution as the starting point, but also including amendments to the LM and Computer Crime laws, looking at and concisely defining the role of the privy council, implementing a strict permit system for future protests (to put some rules in place as so that the never ending supply of gullible and bloody minded protesters can be kept in check otherwise no government will ever be able to do anything) - surely there are enough great unbiased minds in Thailand that can come up with something appropriate, but if there are still contentious items then they will need to go to a referendum

4. Set a strict, but realistic timetable for the above political reform process, including a date for the next election to be held as soon as the new rules are in place.

5. Request that all parties/sides/colors take a step back from protesting, and invite them to instead get involved in the political reform process.

6. Strictly implement rule of law without fear or favour

7. Thaksin???? - I'm thinking that he is a special case and a negotiated settlement needs to be reached with him, but who does the negotiating? Off the top of my head, the best solution I can come up with is a special act of parliament requiring say 75% approval.

(it will mainly need to be a financial settlement, however the amount might depend on whether he enters binding commitments relating to the extent of his future political involvement).

As usual, its just general rambling to get it off my chest, and the real experts would need to work out ways to facilitate the legalities.