Stronger Baht/usd

[MikeWill]

Where will the Thai Baht go?  Don't know where it was, but where it was, wasn't it!  

closed today @ 38.515  .... but we's a-going to 50+ in the not too distant future.  Last call to unload real estate  ....  hold dollars and tom yam! ..  when Gold hits $250 buy it all.   

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

At 9:45 AM today ... - 38.93

Does your conspicuous absense mean that you have gone into ecstasy & already reached a transcendental state?

The night is still young, amigo and the road ahead long and fraught with peril -- but spurts of joy and bliss are forthcoming.

And the $ ain't even warmed up yet!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Since Jan 27 to March 25 (during ~2 months) the difference is only ~.42 THB - a slide of 1.08%.

According to your predictions Harmonica, THB should be at over 50, - it is another 30% (looks like a long way to go).

Do you still predicting that this will happened soon? How soon based on your statistical analyzes?

[Bizz]

Like to know why the € euro is gaining ground again small but are the markets really taking much notice of the feds rate hike i mean the markets are not just the US of A any more its a great big market out there.

Think China will revalue soon they were expected to do so last year 85% of traders bet on it.

Why not? With oil soaring

[Maka]

The mandantory border run Wed. was fraught with motor trouble, that turned into a struggle. Task finally completed Thurs. night late. Friday catchup on two lost days. But Im back. Watching the dance floor again.

Ms Bhat Stalled a little around tables 38.6 and 38.8 chatting with old friends (Thurs/ Fri) but shes back on the move. Not looking back at tables 38.6 or 38.7 she puches her way towards table 40 and the dance floor beyond.

She is hung up at 38.8 for the moment.

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 38.9970 THB

But have no fear, the Harmonice music is irrisistable.

Whats this? Ms gold is up out of her seat. Is she going to dance too?

She has been depressed for so long its hard to believe, but I think I detect a twinkle in her eye. Then again the ladies WC in in the same direction as the dance floor, maybe shes going there instead?

Well see......... but I know she can hear the Harmonica music too.

I'll keep an eye on her.

This could all get very interesting soon.

[Harmonica]

The mandantory border run Wed. was fraught with motor trouble, that turned into a struggle. Task finally completed Thurs. night late. Friday catchup on two lost days. But Im back. Watching the dance floor again.

Ms Bhat Stalled a little around tables 38.6 and 38.8 chatting with old friends (Thurs/ Fri) but shes back on the move. Not looking back at tables 38.6 or 38.7 she puches her way towards table 40 and the dance floor beyond.

She is hung up at 38.8 for the moment.

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    38.9970 THB

But have no fear, the Harmonice music is irrisistable.

Whats this? Ms gold is up out of her seat. Is she going to dance too?

She has been  depressed for so long its hard to believe, but I think I detect a twinkle in her eye. Then again the ladies WC in in the same direction as the dance floor, maybe shes going there instead?

Well see......... but I know she can hear the Harmonica music too.

I'll keep an eye on her.

This could all get very interesting soon.

Glad you're back!

Friday's closing data for the Baht are:

CLOSE = 38.97 .... the high for the day was 38.995 as per my download from Philip Securities; this matches the data from Reuters Thailand.

But I did see 39.01 on Bloomberg somewhere around 5:00 PM. But it does not show up as the high on Reuters, so I ignore it. Reuters guarantees its data, Bloomberg does not!

Check out the large green bars, almost vertical, for the last 2 days' action on the Baht.

Now we are on the 11th straight daily gain!

God, do I love it so!

[Maka]

As I read it, if there were a fan line that ran across the top of the last 11 days gains, and the trend continues the same, then breaking 40 would happen in the second week in April?

She's a bein' persistant

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 38.9173 THB

(right now )

[Harmonica]

Where will the Thai Baht go?  Don't know where it was, but where it was, wasn't it!  

closed today @ 38.515  .... but we's a-going to 50+ in the not too distant future.  Last call to unload real estate  ....  hold dollars and tom yam! ..  when Gold hits $250 buy it all.    

At 9:45 AM today ... - 38.93

Does your conspicuous absense mean that you have gone into ecstasy & already reached a transcendental state?

The night is still young, amigo and the road ahead long and fraught with peril -- but spurts of joy and bliss are forthcoming.

And the $ ain't even warmed up yet!

Since Jan 27 to March 25 (during ~2 months) the difference is only ~.42 THB - a slide of 1.08%.

According to your predictions Harmonica, THB should be at over 50, - it is another 30% (looks like a long way to go).

Do you still predicting that this will happened soon? How soon based on your statistical analyzes?

Even great men were born little children! Baby steps, amigo! Remember that Baht has been thrashing $ for a long time. These things take time. Two months is not even adequate foreplay time! Currencies take time to get underway and then they just keep going & going & going ...... get the idea?

50 Baht to the dollar -- before end of 2006!

[MikeWill]

Harmonica,

I wish your prediction is right on the money!

I'm stocking the green. The end of 2006 is just 20 months away.

Does there any analytical graph or other material data (human, cultural, social, economical, political, or of any other substance) to support your prediction?

Is it possible to bet (buying futures or whatever else) on exchange rate values?

P.S. I really enjoy to read your commentaries and just wish that your annotations would have more explanations.

Keep it going!

[thaiaan]

By the end of 2006 the dollar will be belly up-a dead fiat currency.

Be lucky to get 50 dollars to 1 baht or peso or euro or yen.

A service economy with 40 trillion in debt is history's most bankrupt economy.

Zimbabwe and Columbia will look good compared to the USA.

But go ahead and paper trade some more as betting no money and analyzing graphs and charts is a fun hobby and can't lose any real money anyway.

[Harmonica]

By the end of 2006 the dollar will be belly up-a dead fiat currency.

Be lucky to get 50 dollars to 1 baht or peso or euro or yen.

A service economy with 40 trillion in debt is history's most bankrupt economy.

Zimbabwe and Columbia will look good compared to the USA.

But go ahead and paper trade some more as betting no money and analyzing graphs and charts is a fun hobby and can't lose any real money anyway.

A tad jealous are we?

The $ has been hot; I'd suggest you stop insulting him and may I advise you to put on a bra and NOT stick your ass out like that?

[Harmonica]

Harmonica,

I wish your prediction is right on the money!

I'm stocking the green. The end of 2006 is just 20 months away.

Does there any analytical graph or other material data (human, cultural, social, economical, political, or of any other substance) to support your prediction?

Is it possible to bet (buying futures or whatever else) on exchange rate values?

P.S. I really enjoy to read your commentaries and just wish that your annotations would have more explanations.

Keep it going!

I'm counting on it and have my money in $ -- yes, there is a solid basis for my prediction; it is technically based and it has everything to do with BASIC supply/demand & the psychology of market players.

Yes you can play the Futures markets but it takes quite a bit of time and effort to get the hang of it. Losses in the first year can be ruinous and many blow their entire bankrolls within months and quit for good.

Some of them are HERE!

Annotations? Ask and I'll be happy to point you in the right direction, within reason & time constraints, of course!

[thaiaan]

There is nothing the USA can do to prevent the collapse of its currency, and its economy. It has no reserves to support its value, and has the most indebted country in the world, is dependant of the credit from America's former enemies. Both Russia and China have said they will be switching their considerable dollar reserves into Euro. This will only hasten the lack of confidence in the dollar, creating a global lack of confidence in the currency, and setting into free-fall. It will soon bring about the total collapse of the dollar, and the American economy. The Euro will become the world's only reserve currency.

But keep predicting and paper trading monopoly money and have others invest their real money.Its their money to lose.Am sure you have plenty of money to invest in your predictions.haahaa!

[MikeWill]

"There is nothing the USA can do to prevent the collapse of its currency, and its economy."

Are you seriously think so, thaiaan?

After all, USA is the only super power, at least for the time being.

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra yesterday acknowledged that Thailand could see a trade deficit this year, the first since the 1997 crisis.

Harmonica, above quote (from Bangkok Post) is another indication to contemplate that your predictions isn't just speculative.

I think, such acknowledgements coming from PM would/should speed up the process of Baht decline further, even without the correlation to $.

[Maka]

I cant believe all of the Dooms Day scenarios that keep apearing here regarding the U.S economy.

The US a Super power in regards to military status, but that seems to be all anyone ever notices.

They sit at the table, eating heartily, and complain about the big gun on the table, forgetting that the food they're eating is on the same table.

In short: The US feeds the world.

Way more significant than any gun.

So give up all of this, U.S. down the tubes, B.S.. With out the US the world starves.

No govt. is going to burn the food basket.

Enough said.

[thaiaan]

America feeds the world Big Macs and junk food for its corporate profits.Of the 22 richest countries America is last in percentage of foreign aid to the worlds hungry.America is a stingy bully.

Australia,Canada,Argentina,etc., all produce inexpensive beef for the world.Every country grows wheat and rice and raises chickens and pigs.

America only has high technology Mcdonalds as its only internationally recognized exports.

The DVD recorders,flat screen TVs,camcorders,and other high tech goodies comes from Japan and Korea not the US.China has the factories that produces almost everything else.

The world will really miss Big Macs as nobody but American industry can fry up a burger.

A Big Mac service economy that doesn't produce anything except movies and junk food is a false one.

Its all a scam and its dollar IOU's are all cons.

Throw in an uneducated illiterate society with its levels of crime and violence and it will be something to see what happens when its standard of living and materialism and consumerism ends overnight.

But the world will really feel sorry for the Paris Hiltons and Michael Jacksons being so poor and desperate.heehee!

[Harmonica]

America feeds the world Big Macs and junk food for its corporate profits.Of the 22 richest countries America is last in percentage of foreign aid to the worlds hungry.America is a stingy bully.

Australia,Canada,Argentina,etc., all produce inexpensive beef for the world.Every country grows wheat and rice and raises chickens and pigs.

America only has high technology Mcdonalds as its only internationally recognized exports.

The DVD recorders,flat screen TVs,camcorders,and other high tech goodies comes from Japan and Korea not the US.China has the factories that produces almost everything else.

The world will really miss Big Macs as nobody but American industry can fry up a burger.

A Big Mac service economy that doesn't produce anything except movies and junk food is a false one.

Its all a scam and its dollar IOU's are all cons.

Throw in an uneducated illiterate society with its levels of crime and violence and it will be something to see what happens when its standard of living and materialism and consumerism ends overnight.

But the world will really feel sorry for the Paris Hiltons and Michael Jacksons being so poor and desperate.heehee!

Yawn! Another America basher? A dime a dozen and they ALL have one thing in common! LOSERS! And now they are in Euros, predicting doomsday!

God, do I love it so! Just one American, the $, ridiculed & laughed at, taking out so many imbeciles, so quick, with such precision & verve & he ain't even warmed up yet!

[Harmonica]

Baht = 39.15 ..... @ 9:24 AM, Monday!

She walks everday thru' the streets of Bangkok;

She's innocent & young, from a family of means --

I've stood many times outside her window at night,

To struggle with my instincts in the pale moonlight;

How can I be this way, when I pray to God above?

I must love what I destroy & destroy the thing I love! (modified Sting!)

[thaiaan]

Presuming that a tougher Fed means higher interest rates, traders have aggressively bought dollars. However, this conclusion ignores the facts that higher interest rates will ultimately: 1) precipitate a severe recession, 2) exacerbate both the current account and budget deficits, 3) collapse the housing, stock, and bond market bubbles, 4) cause millions to lose their jobs, 5) bankrupt millions of consumers, and thousands of companies and hedge funds, 6) result in capital flight out of the United States 7) and not even rise high enough to exceed the rate of inflation, leaving real yields negative. Therefore, higher interest rates will actually weaken, rather than strengthen, the dollar.

Higher interest rates, especially when they result from inflation rather than growth, will likely be the straw that breaks the back of the over-leveraged American economy. As the world's largest debtor nation struggles to make higher interest payments on its massive external liabilities, those holding its IOU's will finally come to their senses. Realizing that the burden will ultimate proof too great, they will attempt to sell. Unfortunately, this realization will likely come too late, as few will be willing to take the other side of the trade.

Losers with no money that trade on paper are imbeciles.

Losers that follow their advice are idiots.

[Indo-Siam]

Big guns - yes, influential.

Source of food - yes, important.

Source of premiere medical supplies and medical innovation in the world - important.

Yes, all of the above are important things for which the US provides leadership.

Can the world function with those three contributions by the US? Probably.

Can the world as we know it function without Microsoft Software, Intel microprocessors, and Cicso routers? Nope.

The world's IT and communications infrastruture depends on the US.

Way back, the US was an agricultural society.

Then it was a world-leading industrial society

Then it was a world-leading service sector society - Thaiaan is still is lost somewhere back there

Now it is the world's premier information society - and gradually moving the entire world towards speaking English.

Its currency will float up and down as it always has.

Cheers!

Indo-Siam

[Harmonica]

Hey thaiaan, here's some Monopoly money for you -- 10 million chips. On the Euro? Is that your bet? Its funny money; how can you lose?

State your position . ..... come on, give the singer some, man!

Put up or shut up! Dig?

For others -- interested in some old-fashioned detective work? ... check this out -- the Baht has come up against this 39.15 zone 13 times since 1997 and every single time had difficulty penetrating and overcoming it; regardless whether it was trying to go north or south. The line always stood in its way. This line is no mirage. It stands clearly evident on a price chart! Shown in heavy red in the chart below.

This time is no different. If anybody is watching real-time or Bloomberg today, you'll notice how Baht is banging up against this wall again -- retreating and then attacking again!

If Baht breaks on thru' to the other side, Jim Morrison might come back to life and perform "Light my Fire" once again!

Also, if it does break thru' -- expect SET Index to nosedive!

Observe how SET is just marking time as Baht battles with the resistance level.

What's actually going on is that FOREIGNERS have their trigger-fingers ready -- as soon as this 39.15 level is exceeded, THEY will DUMP stock in a hurry and plunge SET -- and there is NO "Plunge Protection team" here!

All this is happening on a subconscious level, of course. The Foreigners don't know that this is what they are doing. (A few do! )

[MikeWill]

$ = THB 39.14 (39.16 on Bloomberg)

The SET is currently down but just fructionally -.42 points (it was dancing up & down during the session without clear direction).

The Yen is stady at 106.98.

But, the long term US bonds is also down, tho' marginally.

The clear indications of further movements are not there yet, the whole picture is still rather confusing.

I was looking for a much greater impact as a result of the trade deficit for 2005 acknowledged yesterday by Thaksin. (It is even more strange that just recently he declined the tsunami funding.)

Even so, I doubt that "Higher interest rates, especially when they result from inflation rather than growth, will likely be the straw that breaks the back of the over-leveraged American economy", as stated by thaiaan - it seems that the back of US economy needs much more than just a straw to be broken.

Hopefully, Harmonica's predictions are on the money.

Edited March 28, 2005 by Condo_bk

[MikeWill]

2005 Equity Prospects http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=28560

thaiaan, hopefully, you will enjoy the a/m very intelligent and sound discussion on US economy and currencies - highly recommended.

[MikeWill]

Harmonica

"39.15 zone 13 times since 1997"

Looking at your graph above, it seems that the level of 40.5 - 41 had even more points of crossings, isn't it.

Or, is it just to early to point out this zone level?

Isn't it an indication of the "true" THB value, or something like that?

[Maka]

Well boys and girls, Ms. Bhat made her dash to table 39, and had enough momentum to carry her into its interior, enough to pass even the dreaded 39.15

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.1707 THB

Granted this isnt a "closing" # but still she is persistant here, and not looking back.

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.1685 THB

The Harmonica music is too much for her as she dashes headlong to the dance floor, while Miss SET looks for a table to retire to, leaving her dance partners to the HOT and Fresh Ms. Bhat.

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.1676 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.1694 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.1703 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.1741 THB

She hit so hard and was moving so fast that nothing will stop her now. I myslef am moving to the dance floor too. Wouldnt miss the chance to dance with this Hottie.

{random snapshots of trading over the last couple of hrs.}

[~G~]

Harmonica,

Don't you think the blue lines are more meaningfull?

1997 - 2001 seem to be very different than 2001 - 2005.

Edited March 28, 2005 by ~G~

[ArtfulD]

Harmonica,

Don't you think the blue lines are more meaningfull?

1997 - 2001 seem to be very different than 2001 - 2005.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree ~G~ I was observing the same on my charts, I think they are a cleaner set of supp/res lines than the support posted earlier. I think ~41 is the current target rate, after that then will be observing for either a breakout or resumption into the downtrend. I wouldnt make calls further than that as its just too hugely speculative, the whole point of trading is re-evaluation at every point for the most profitable outcomes.

[ArtfulD]

Just wanting to point out also in the use of trendlines, while I do use them myself, as in the chart above you have to be careful with them. Lines can break and it does -not- mean the end of the trend......Some people are painting a picture that when one trend line breaks then price is going to keep going for miles in the other direction...it doesnt have to however. Relying on trend lines alone is not the way to go.

[Maka]

Now watch this as she pushes on, lured by compelling Harmonica music

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2015 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2041 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2020 THB

More random snapshots in time over couple hr. period.. 39.15 seems like history

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2010 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2011 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2014 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2024 THB

Looks like she dosent want to go back farther than table 39.2

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2029 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2014 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2041 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2056 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2050 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2058 THB

OK enough of this cut and paste fun for now.

I might have Easter Egg on my face in the morning.

[Maka]

ArtfulD

What are the Red, Blue and Green lines?

Couldnt resist

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2095 THB

[ArtfulD]

Now watch this as she pushes on, lured by compelling Harmonica music

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2015 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2041 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2020 THB

More random snapshots in time  over couple hr. period..        39.15 seems like history

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2010 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2011 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2014 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2024 THB

Looks like she dosent want to go back farther than table 39.2

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2029 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2014 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2041 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2056 THB

  1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2050 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2058 THB

OK enough of this cut and paste fun for now.

I might have Easter Egg on my face in the morning.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Where are you getting your quotes from? Mine is showing it jumping around 39.10 - 39.17 (todays peak).....I use ESignal.

[ArtfulD]

ArtfulD

What are the Red, Blue and Green lines?

Couldnt resist

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2095 THB

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Red = 25 Bar Simple Moving Average.

Blue = 50 "" ""

Green = 100 "" ""