Gbp Rate On The Rise?

[mommysboy]

CM . You post with authority but have none: the consensus is that the pound undershot quite markedly, and the bt is high, yet you predict 35bt to the pound, based on a questionable historical norm, and what I assume is prejudice against the UK.

[PCA]

I unfortunately need to add something what might put some credit to CM's thesis. After looking at the longterm charts the trend GBP/THB is clearly down and currencies tend to trend very long in every time frame. Fundamentally speaking should the baht get back to the levels prior to the crisis in 97 when the peg to the dollar was dropped Thailands economy would collapse totally with skyrocketing criminality where even the wealthy wont chose to go. Unlikely but not unthinkable.

[RAZZELL]

It is this part i am not sure i understand. What reason is given for the Thai Baht to strengthen against the Pound? For that matter against any currency? Not sure how the Thai Baht is expected to strenthen at all.

Note i am not disagreeing, i simply do not understand how the Baht can be expected to strengthen when many feel that it is already being manipulated to keep its strength higher than it should be already.

Most people were talking about how the Thai economy is likely to feel the true impact of the Credit crunch a little later than those countries in the west already affected. Has this now been disregarded? If so, why?

Agree. Can only see the baht weakening in the coming year. I think my prediction was 60 odd to the £ by Christmas...Although I might have been a bit optimistic

RAZZ

[cmsally]

I think most of the theories regarding GBP on the rise at some stage tie into the fall of the US$.

Most of the doom and gloom people have forecast a fall in the US$ 2009-2010

For this reason (if they are right) I don't see a further dip in the GBP in the near future.

Like most people I am totally speculating but I forecast a rise (or another rise) in the GBP when there is a change of govt at next election.

I'll put my money on the "Obama effect".

PS Just checked rates this morning and considerable increase. One wonders if that was because Brown let slip that Conservatives would win next election.

Just imagine the rise if they actually win the election.

Edited May 21, 2009 by cmsally

[mommysboy]

I think most of the theories regarding GBP on the rise at some stage tie into the fall of the US$.

Most of the doom and gloom people have forecast a fall in the US$ 2009-2010

For this reason (if they are right) I don't see a further dip in the GBP in the near future.

Like most people I am totally speculating but I forecast a rise (or another rise) in the GBP when there is a change of govt at next election.

I'll put my money on the "Obama effect".

PS Just checked rates this morning and considerable increase. One wonders if that was because Brown let slip that Conservatives would win next election.

Just imagine the rise if they actually win the election.

One doesn't need explanations other than the market undershot completely, and that the bt is overvalued, why look for anything else?

[ChiangMaiFun]

GBP now hit 54! heading Northwards - how long will it continue? thats a rise of nearly 10% from the low recently of 49 something - any ideas how long the rally will last?

[chiang mai]

CM . You post with authority but have none: the consensus is that the pound undershot quite markedly, and the bt is high, yet you predict 35bt to the pound, based on a questionable historical norm, and what I assume is prejudice against the UK.

If you take the trouble to read all my posts on this subject you will note that I refer to a 35 baht Pound in the longer term and by that I mean in a timeframe of greater than seven years. You will also note that I posted that comment in response to a poster who forecast 80 baht per Pound in the short term!

And no, I have no prejudice against the UK whatsoever, after all, my investments are all in GBP and from that country so why would I.

Finally, you say post with authority yet have none, I swear I don't get some of you guys sometimes, really I don't. I can't recall how many times I've posted the fact that I'm not expert in this field just an interested bystander who takes time to read and research the subject matter and form an opinion. Having done those things I've shared my opinion on TV - if people want to constructively challenge my opinion, great. And if other people want to do the same things I will happily challenge them if I don't agree.

So my authority, I have none and don't claim any - but don't shoot me down for having thought about the things that influence the exchange rates and trying to explain why I arrived at a certain answer. At least I don't post the question, "what will the GBP/THB exchange rate be tomorrow or next week", I like to think that I have thought about what it might be and why.

[chiang mai]

Come on PCA you can do better than that. I put up a scenario re GBP/THB and explained why, best you seem to be able to do so is say I'm wrong and BTW, here's a different number. I don't mind being told I'm wrong if someone, you in this instance, wants to set out an argument as to why and who knows, I may even buy into it. As things stand at present my view remains that GBP/THB will reach around 55 perhaps, give or take a margin of error, since this is not an exact science! In the longer term I see a much stronger Baht against GBP because of the overhang from QE and UK public debt (see todays report by the IMF on this subject if in doubt) - perhaps that much stronger Baht will be in the 35/40 range and perhaps the timeframe will be 7 or 10 years or so but I see that happening. Now, challenge that constructively and explain your challenge else quit posting ramblings.

[chiang mai]

I've been repeatedly blocked from adding replies to this thread. Seems Chiang Mai has friends in higher places

Whuuuu, scary stuff that, blocked from posting indeed you say! You'd have to be American to come up with that conspiracy theory.

Edited May 21, 2009 by chiang mai

[Maigo6]

perhaps that much stronger Baht will be in the 35/40 range and perhaps the timeframe will be 7 or 10 years or so but I see that happening.

It would be back to the same as it was 15 - 20 years ago. between the 35 - 40 mark was normality for THB v GBP and 25 for the THB v USD.

I think we've had it good in the last 12 years, maybe now we have to settle back down to the pre 97 crash rates, at that time they were normal, now those rates seem incredibly low, but that's what they were then, and we still managed to get by.

Anything extra has been a bonus to the guys that came here before the crash of 1997.

Of course if you planned your retirement on the GBP staying at 70 baht, then you might be feeling the pinch.

Edited May 21, 2009 by Maigo6

[mommysboy]

perhaps that much stronger Baht will be in the 35/40 range and perhaps the timeframe will be 7 or 10 years or so but I see that happening.

It would be back to the same as it was 15 - 20 years ago. between the 35 - 40 mark was normality for THB v GBP and 25 for the THB v USD.

I think we've had it good in the last 12 years, maybe now we have to settle back down to the pre 97 crash rates, at that time they were normal, now those rates seem incredibly low, but that's what they were then, and we still managed to get by.

Anything extra has been a bonus to the guys that came here before the crash of 1997.

Of course if you planned your retirement on the GBP staying at 70 baht, then you might be feeling the pinch.

As has been pointed out on many occasions, the 35 mark was an artificial rate as the bt was pegged to the dollar with disasterous consequences as it was grossly overvalued, it is not a norm.

Yes I agree we had it too good, and I imagine 45 -60 is the real range. And I don't think it will rise much until the bt weakens. I'm predicting 55 over the next couple of months.

[chiang mai]

perhaps that much stronger Baht will be in the 35/40 range and perhaps the timeframe will be 7 or 10 years or so but I see that happening.

It would be back to the same as it was 15 - 20 years ago. between the 35 - 40 mark was normality for THB v GBP and 25 for the THB v USD.

I think we've had it good in the last 12 years, maybe now we have to settle back down to the pre 97 crash rates, at that time they were normal, now those rates seem incredibly low, but that's what they were then, and we still managed to get by.

Anything extra has been a bonus to the guys that came here before the crash of 1997.

Of course if you planned your retirement on the GBP staying at 70 baht, then you might be feeling the pinch.

As has been pointed out on many occasions, the 35 mark was an artificial rate as the bt was pegged to the dollar with disasterous consequences as it was grossly overvalued, it is not a norm.

Yes I agree we had it too good, and I imagine 45 -60 is the real range. And I don't think it will rise much until the bt weakens. I'm predicting 55 over the next couple of months.

45 to 60 is not a range it's the outback (30% variance), far too big to be range, seems more like a hope based on recent history combined with a future wish.

I'm with Maig06 on this point, as described previously.

[MJP]

S&P downgrade the UK from Stable to Negative!

[ashacat]

S&P downgrade, say goodbye to the strengthening Pound!

[chiang mai]

S&P downgrade the UK from Stable to Negative!

The bad guys in Patong see that as no surprise.

Edited May 21, 2009 by chiang mai

[MJP]

It is no surprise and I knew GBP rise was BS!

But, everyone's going to get downgraded at some point.

[jackinbkk]

S&P downgrade the UK from Stable to Negative!

Yes and on that news I anticipated the drop on the pound. A full 2 cents.

Unfortunately for GBP lovers many of the equity markets look very overbought.

When demand rises for a rush back to USD and Yen the Pound and Euro are going to suffer.

The PE on Chinese equities is now 26.33, twice what it was in November. China's predicted 8% growth is starting to raise questions.

When the private loans (making up 90% of the $758 Billion lent in the Shanghai composite) cannot be serviced by the anticipated earnings a vicious cycle will begin.

A demand for dollars and yen + a surplus of GBP and Euro's will see a weakening of the GBP and Euro.

There's a lot of bad news feeding into the markets again so we may see the start of some profit taking.

The reason Dollars are so strong today is because of the last 7 months of economic disasters.

We are unlikely to see another Bear Sterns, Lehman brothers or AIG headline. Banks are sounder than they were before.

The economy still has to purge itself of the bad Collateral debt obligations and bad credit default swaps aka toxic assets still

in the system.

When times get better the dollar will weaken, pounds and euro's will strengthen. The enigma is how long this will take and what

ups and downs we will see in between.

One thing I can't really comment on is the SET but sentiment there will play a big roll in this topic.

Any experts who can shed light on how the SET is going?

[PCA]

Come on PCA you can do better than that. I put up a scenario re GBP/THB and explained why, best you seem to be able to do so is say I'm wrong and BTW, here's a different number. I don't mind being told I'm wrong if someone, you in this instance, wants to set out an argument as to why and who knows, I may even buy into it. As things stand at present my view remains that GBP/THB will reach around 55 perhaps, give or take a margin of error, since this is not an exact science! In the longer term I see a much stronger Baht against GBP because of the overhang from QE and UK public debt (see todays report by the IMF on this subject if in doubt) - perhaps that much stronger Baht will be in the 35/40 range and perhaps the timeframe will be 7 or 10 years or so but I see that happening. Now, challenge that constructively and explain your challenge else quit posting ramblings.

I cannot remember that I was rambling just do I not agree with your opinion at the moment which I kept silently by myself until you started to advocate where I suggested to rather think twice or avoid at all before influencing other people's financial decision making. You blew this in the wind with a simple "sleep well" which tells me that you have a kind of an ego problem. You can be wrong (currently my opinion which I am free to change any day according to my personally derived criteria) as well as right. How it finally turns out has nothing to do with anyone's opinion and is written solely in the future which both of us don't know as you might agree. The one remaining right will be wrong the next time, he might recognize faster when he is wrong but the influenced one will never understand both scenarios.

Beyond that building opinions based on reports of the IMF or FED is not a smart idea and underlining skills sucked out of the thumb. You have always seen forged and manipulated data and this fact will never change.

On a closing note I did not say anywhere that you are wrong just that you are not qualified by posting a fanatic view.

[chiang mai]

Come on PCA you can do better than that. I put up a scenario re GBP/THB and explained why, best you seem to be able to do so is say I'm wrong and BTW, here's a different number. I don't mind being told I'm wrong if someone, you in this instance, wants to set out an argument as to why and who knows, I may even buy into it. As things stand at present my view remains that GBP/THB will reach around 55 perhaps, give or take a margin of error, since this is not an exact science! In the longer term I see a much stronger Baht against GBP because of the overhang from QE and UK public debt (see todays report by the IMF on this subject if in doubt) - perhaps that much stronger Baht will be in the 35/40 range and perhaps the timeframe will be 7 or 10 years or so but I see that happening. Now, challenge that constructively and explain your challenge else quit posting ramblings.

I cannot remember that I was rambling just do I not agree with your opinion at the moment which I kept silently by myself until you started to advocate where I suggested to rather think twice or avoid at all before influencing other people's financial decision making. You blew this in the wind with a simple "sleep well" which tells me that you have a kind of an ego problem. You can be wrong (currently my opinion which I am free to change any day according to my personally derived criteria) as well as right. How it finally turns out has nothing to do with anyone's opinion and is written solely in the future which both of us don't know as you might agree. The one remaining right will be wrong the next time, he might recognize faster when he is wrong but the influenced one will never understand both scenarios.

Beyond that building opinions based on reports of the IMF or FED is not a smart idea and underlining skills sucked out of the thumb. You have always seen forged and manipulated data and this fact will never change.

On a closing note I did not say anywhere that you are wrong just that you are not qualified by posting a fanatic view.

PCA, sleep well, again!

[PCA]

Come on PCA you can do better than that. I put up a scenario re GBP/THB and explained why, best you seem to be able to do so is say I'm wrong and BTW, here's a different number. I don't mind being told I'm wrong if someone, you in this instance, wants to set out an argument as to why and who knows, I may even buy into it. As things stand at present my view remains that GBP/THB will reach around 55 perhaps, give or take a margin of error, since this is not an exact science! In the longer term I see a much stronger Baht against GBP because of the overhang from QE and UK public debt (see todays report by the IMF on this subject if in doubt) - perhaps that much stronger Baht will be in the 35/40 range and perhaps the timeframe will be 7 or 10 years or so but I see that happening. Now, challenge that constructively and explain your challenge else quit posting ramblings.

I cannot remember that I was rambling just do I not agree with your opinion at the moment which I kept silently by myself until you started to advocate where I suggested to rather think twice or avoid at all before influencing other people's financial decision making. You blew this in the wind with a simple "sleep well" which tells me that you have a kind of an ego problem. You can be wrong (currently my opinion which I am free to change any day according to my personally derived criteria) as well as right. How it finally turns out has nothing to do with anyone's opinion and is written solely in the future which both of us don't know as you might agree. The one remaining right will be wrong the next time, he might recognize faster when he is wrong but the influenced one will never understand both scenarios.

Beyond that building opinions based on reports of the IMF or FED is not a smart idea and underlining skills sucked out of the thumb. You have always seen forged and manipulated data and this fact will never change.

On a closing note I did not say anywhere that you are wrong just that you are not qualified by posting a fanatic view.

PCA, sleep well, again!

will do, with your money in my pocket as it always has been

[chiang mai]

I'm fast losing interest in this thread and in others of a similar ilk, what ever happened to the concept of a useful exchange of idea's and strategies that would benefit many - that was a rhetorical question RCA! I'm gone from this site.

[PCA]

I'm fast losing interest in this thread and in others of a similar ilk, what ever happened to the concept of a useful exchange of idea's and strategies that would benefit many - that was a rhetorical question RCA! I'm gone from this site.

I will miss you but will also better leave just for the chance you were right in the end bye bye

[mommysboy]

I'm fast losing interest in this thread and in others of a similar ilk, what ever happened to the concept of a useful exchange of idea's and strategies that would benefit many - that was a rhetorical question RCA! I'm gone from this site.

I will miss you but will also better leave just for the chance you were right in the end bye bye

UK is up front that's all.

But I agree let's close the thread if poss, so much bs for and against it does nobody any justice.

Please mods ditch it!

[ChiangMaiFun]

S&P downgrade, say goodbye to the strengthening Pound!

GBP now at its highest for months 54!!! soooooooooo S&P downgrade? only one of three - two out of three say UK is AAA and S&P say AA? you say 'goodbye to strengthening pound'? I think you have called this wrong... I'm transferring tomorrow at 54 ish when it was 49/50 - UK will bounce back no worries... basic economy sound - watch this space

[Chivas]

Some of the crap spouted on this thread defies belief.

The pound is rising in general PURELY AND SOLELY because it was massively oversold last autumn and new year.

Quite simple-ask any forex trader likewise myself.

[chiang mai]

Some of the crap spouted on this thread defies belief.

The pound is rising in general PURELY AND SOLELY because it was massively oversold last autumn and new year.

Quite simple-ask any forex trader likewise myself.

Nobody is denying it's rising or why it is doing so, I haven't seen anyone post anything to the contrary! The question people are trying to get to grips with is where is it going to be in three, twelve and one hundred months time, do you know, Mr Forex Trader?

[Naam]

Some of the crap spouted on this thread defies belief. The pound is rising in general PURELY AND SOLELY because it was massively oversold last autumn and new year. Quite simple-ask any forex trader likewise myself.

Nobody is denying it's rising or why it is doing so, I haven't seen anyone post anything to the contrary! The question people are trying to get to grips with is where is it going to be in three, twelve and one hundred months time, do you know, Mr Forex Trader?

my dog thinks the Pound will be at least if not more and i fully agree with this forecast. but mind you! neither of us is a forex trader. we could be wrong.

[ChiangMaiFun]

Makes me laugh some of the predictions and the DOOM and GLOOM - just transferred a large sum at 54.30 and only a few months ago below 50.00 and many preaching the end is nigh!!! no one fully knows where it's going longer term otherwise they would be very, very rich

[chiang mai]

Makes me laugh some of the predictions and the DOOM and GLOOM - just transferred a large sum at 54.30 and only a few months ago below 50.00 and many preaching the end is nigh!!! no one fully knows where it's going longer term otherwise they would be very, very rich

I find this all very odd indeed, I mean, here we have several thousand expats transferring currency into the country every year in order to finance their retirement and long stays - we have many thousands of the same beings transferring foreign currency into Thailand to buy real estate which they may want to sell at some point in the future. Surely these individuals must be concerned whether the value of their holdings are likely to appreciate or depreciate over time? If someone transfers in the equivalent of say seven million baht today and the rate falls substantially that could mean a loss of as much as what, a third or more. Me, I'm much less concerned about whether I make a profit or a loss on my real estate holdings than I am about the currency equivalents over time because the potential for a substantial loss is so much greater. Am I alone therefore in wanting to try to understand currency futures from this perspective? I don't expect to be able to accurately predict exchange rates in say ten years time but I think with a little research and effort it's possible to say, on the balance of probability, known risks considered, the strong likelihood is that THB will be x% stronger/weaker than GBP in three five and ten years time, no?

[ChiangMaiFun]

Makes me laugh some of the predictions and the DOOM and GLOOM - just transferred a large sum at 54.30 and only a few months ago below 50.00 and many preaching the end is nigh!!! no one fully knows where it's going longer term otherwise they would be very, very rich

I find this all very odd indeed, I mean, here we have several thousand expats transferring currency into the country every year in order to finance their retirement and long stays - we have many thousands of the same beings transferring foreign currency into Thailand to buy real estate which they may want to sell at some point in the future. Surely these individuals must be concerned whether the value of their holdings are likely to appreciate or depreciate over time? If someone transfers in the equivalent of say seven million baht today and the rate falls substantially that could mean a loss of as much as what, a third or more. Me, I'm much less concerned about whether I make a profit or a loss on my real estate holdings than I am about the currency equivalents over time because the potential for a substantial loss is so much greater. Am I alone therefore in wanting to try to understand currency futures from this perspective? I don't expect to be able to accurately predict exchange rates in say ten years time but I think with a little research and effort it's possible to say, on the balance of probability, known risks considered, the strong likelihood is that THB will be x% stronger/weaker than GBP in three five and ten years time, no?

Let me explain a little my approach... I am not very bothered about movements AFTER I have transferred (very bothered BEFORE) for the following reason: I'm not very worried about capital gains - my strategy is for local currency income - income that does not reply on exchange rates and so I have a few condos which i rent out - giving me monthly income for my daily needs etc. So my pension income is in GBP and I try not to touch that nand my Thai income is in THB. As this is the case I'm not worried about fluctuations over the years - if I ever sell (unlikely) I'll take it on the chin whatever I get. It's only a 'loss' if you sell - many of us want local income. Does that sort of make sense?