Are The Markets Headed For An Even Worse Crash?

[Bel Mondo]

Saw an interesting press release today.

If it's true, the world is in for a lot more financial grief.

I'm no stock market pro, but some of you are --

Should we all start buying Puts?

NEoWave Warns Stock Market Has Peaked for 2009

NEoWave Institute's Glenn Neely is forecasting the largest vertical drop of the decade for the S&P 500. Neely predicts the stock market will decline 50% in the next 6 months.

Viejo, CA June 16, 2009 -- Glenn Neely, founder of NEoWave Institute and prominent Elliott Wave analyst, today announces a startling prediction: The S&P 500 is forming a major top in June, which will be followed by a large decline, eventually pushing the stock market to record lows for the decade.

"Technically speaking, according to NEoWave a correction began at last October's low; the March-June rally is the final leg of that correction," Neely explains. "The March-June rally is now ending, allowing the bear market to resume. During the next six months, the S&P will decline 50% or more, breaking well below 500!" Currently, the S&P is hovering around 917.

Glenn Neely is providing this information not as a specific trade recommendation but as a general public service announcement. A prominent Elliott Wave analyst, Neely was recently recognized in Timer Digest's May issue as the #1 stock market timer for the past 12 months.

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2009/06/prweb2537224.htm

[Mobi]

If you believe some, like the guy who wrote in the B Post the other day, this Swine Flu will return in a more virulent strain in October and start to kill millions of people.

If that happens it will send the Global economy into another tail spin.

[antony77]

Yes I do believe it will happen. The recent surge in stockmarkets has been due to the huge amount of money being pumped into the economies of many countries. The US banks are all in a very bad shape. The Thai market is now in descent along with other markets like Hongkong and Australia.

The answer is to hold as much cash as possible until things pick up maybe end of next year.

[teacup]

I see it as being much worse than The one of 1929 .

NOW with the US government is part-owning most of the big companies and banks that are controlling the economy......I think it will be butter, beans, and bullets time to come.

Since it's being the world's biggest consumer market, ....If the US goes, so the rest of the world

Edited June 18, 2009 by teacup

[wolfmanjack]

This was also listed as one of the agendas of the hilderberg group as mentioned in another thread that was closed. It was said that this uptrend was a set up to get the middle class back into the market and then crash the market. If i remember right this was reported in April.

[midas]

This was also listed as one of the agendas of the hilderberg group as mentioned in another thread that was closed. It was said that this uptrend was a set up to get the middle class back into the market and then crash the market. If i remember right this was reported in April.

Someone called it " pump and dump "

[flying]

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/new-hard-ev...ollapse-3-34207

[khunjake]

nasty looking top on the SET, 4 deep down days in a row says the uptrend is likely finished. For some light reading, have a look here: http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/martin-armstrong/ . Looks like a major cataclysmic downwave is just over the horizon on a global basis. No real bottom expected until Mid-2011.

Yes I do believe it will happen. The recent surge in stockmarkets has been due to the huge amount of money being pumped into the economies of many countries. The US banks are all in a very bad shape. The Thai market is now in descent along with other markets like Hongkong and Australia.

The answer is to hold as much cash as possible until things pick up maybe end of next year.

[midas]

Another person who has been questioning what the so called " experts " are saying ?

Head and Shoulders forming on the Macro Small Cap charts…

As a general rule, I become suspicious when so many financial reporters and money managers stump on CNBC or Bloomberg issuing price targets that are dramatically higher then where the indexes sit currently. In March, when it was a great time to buy, how many of these same individuals came on to say not to panic and to get in now? Now, after a great run, these same individuals are saying its time to buy…

http://mikevadon.blogspot.com/2009/06/head...g-on-macro.html

[neil324]

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/E...5364198352.html

[PCA]

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/E...5364198352.html

and if not the guy can still blame Elliot hehehe.

[cognos]

No..they already had the bad one in November 2008..things will settle down a bit this summer, and come back in the fall and winter...sell in may and go away still has a little merit

[lannarebirth]

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/E...5364198352.html

and if not the guy can still blame Elliot hehehe.

And sometimes the cycle "inverts".

[trogers]

What fundamentals? Punters are just betting on where the herd is heading, and the brokers earn the commissions.

[loong]

It's still too early to say whether the rally from march is a bear market rally or the beginning of a bull market.

Whatever the experts say, well they are wrong 50% of the time. You may as well flip a coin as listen to them.

Will the lower interest rates and quantative easing lead to higher inflation? If it does will the central banks raise interest rates again?

Many companies will come out of this recession leaner and fitter and so eventually the bulls will take control of the markets again. But for now, will we be seeing new lows? Possibly, but it can only be a guess.

Somehow and sometime, the governments will have to address the massive debts that they have taken on during the recent downturn. Higher taxation? Budget cuts? Whatever measures they take will almost certainly plunge us into another recession.

If we come out of this recession in the next year or so as so many are predicting, I feel that another recession will follow closely. The markets may or may not make new lows but any bull market is likely to be short lived in my opinion.

[zorro1]

After 4 months of record breaking gains we are looking steady as the wild swings abate. The bears will now jump onto any minuscule piece of negativity and rightly so but gee they would be hurting bad now after missing " the sucker rally" No need to go cash just reposition your portfolio to more defensive stock. The only certainty is the Markets will do the exact opposite of what you think. Amazing how the SET has stood up last few months. Quite funny ,the day after The red shirt debacle the Faber report suggested that any one holding the SET should sell . What happened? The SET went boom north up until last few days

Also bearish instos have been forced to take up positions late in the last month and this has has added a trillion or so that normally would not be there. The way the markets have stampeded through woeful data to me indicated the bottom is in place keeping in mind the markets are forward thinking

Edited June 20, 2009 by zorro1

[geriatrickid]

Yes I do believe it will happen. The recent surge in stockmarkets has been due to the huge amount of money being pumped into the economies of many countries. The US banks are all in a very bad shape. The Thai market is now in descent along with other markets like Hongkong and Australia.

The answer is to hold as much cash as possible until things pick up maybe end of next year.

I agree. However, which currency to hold?

I think the USD will be shredded next fall as the debts from bailouts and wars have to be reckoned with. The Euro? I think it's just as shaky due to the immense burden of farm subsidies and bloated public service wages/pensions/health care costs in some countries. We're looking at some major droughts coming on over the next year, so that means major grain exporters like Australia, Canada, USA, Russia & Argentina are going to get walloped. Maybe the only countries that migth survive the coming storm might be those with a strong resource base and an advanced economy. I'd pick Canada and Australia to be the two countries that hold strong. The downside with Canada is that a strong $CAD destroys its export market to its biggest market - the USA. However, unlike Australia, Canada has massive energy reserves, natural resources and lots of fresh water and can always make ends meet.

[thaijasmine]

After 4 months of record breaking gains we are looking steady as the wild swings abate. The bears will now jump onto any minuscule piece of negativity and rightly so but gee they would be hurting bad now after missing " the sucker rally" No need to go cash just reposition your portfolio to more defensive stock. The only certainty is the Markets will do the exact opposite of what you think. Amazing how the SET has stood up last few months. Quite funny ,the day after The red shirt debacle the Faber report suggested that any one holding the SET should sell . What happened? The SET went boom north up until last few days

Also bearish instos have been forced to take up positions late in the last month and this has has added a trillion or so that normally would not be there. The way the markets have stampeded through woeful data to me indicated the bottom is in place keeping in mind the markets are forward thinking

" gee they would be hurting bad now after missing " the sucker rally" why are they hurting ?

money can be made in a downward movement as well

[zorro1]

Yes some extremely wealthy punters out there shorting most of last year

[Naam]

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/new-hard-ev...ollapse-3-34207

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[CaptHaddock]

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/new-hard-ev...ollapse-3-34207

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

Elliot Wave "analysis" is to finance what astrology is to astronomy.