The Stock Market

[ExpatJ]

The Dow dropped sharply on Friday to test short-term support at 11000. Failure would signal a larger correction back to support at 10700. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) retreat below 10% would confirm. The long-term target for the breakout remains 12000*; with reversal below primary support at 9900 unlikely.

I heard that the 50-day Moving Primary Line will be below and above 15% (simultaneously) this week indicating a strong over hold re: stocks. Also expect full scale advance (backwards) from 11,000 sometime this month (but not before today). Also , its clear currencies, according to PPP comparison, will rise (but not in Greenwich Mean Time, obviously)

[lannarebirth]

The Dow dropped sharply on Friday to test short-term support at 11000. Failure would signal a larger correction back to support at 10700. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) retreat below 10% would confirm. The long-term target for the breakout remains 12000*; with reversal below primary support at 9900 unlikely.

I heard that the 50-day Moving Primary Line will be below and above 15% (simultaneously) this week indicating a strong over hold re: stocks. Also expect full scale advance (backwards) from 11,000 sometime this month (but not before today). Also , its clear currencies, according to PPP comparison, will rise (but not in Greenwich Mean Time, obviously)

Could you post the decipher sheet for this please? I'm afraid I didn't grok any of that.

[Naam]

So I'm reading about "Oil "plunging" on volcano and Goldman jitters". Here's my takeaway. A plunge sure ain't what it used to be and news is for suckers.

you have no heart for the doom&gloom brigade

[zorro1]

[quote name='zorro1' post='3521451' date='2010-04-20

Edited April 20, 2010 by zorro1

[zorro1]

The Dow dropped sharply on Friday to test short-term support at 11000. Failure would signal a larger correction back to support at 10700. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) retreat below 10% would confirm. The long-term target for the breakout remains 12000*; with reversal below primary support at 9900 unlikely.

I heard that the 50-day Moving Primary Line will be below and above 15% (simultaneously) this week indicating a strong over hold re: stocks. Also expect full scale advance (backwards) from 11,000 sometime this month (but not before today). Also , its clear currencies, according to PPP comparison, will rise (but not in Greenwich Mean Time, obviously)

Could you post the decipher sheet for this please? I'm afraid I didn't grok any of that.

This could be a job for agent........

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Naam

[lannarebirth]

So I'm reading about "Oil "plunging" on volcano and Goldman jitters". Here's my takeaway. A plunge sure ain't what it used to be and news is for suckers.

you have no heart for the doom&gloom brigade

I don't know, I may join up soon. Last go round $SPX headed south at $95 oil, and quickly. We're getting there...

Somewhere along the way markets seemed to change to the view that high oil prices and high market index prices go hand in hand. That is seldom the case, and while ultra low interest rates can get things bubbling, high oil is going to set a cap at some point. The non finacial world (which admittedly grows smaller and smaller) runs on oil and real bull markets tend to start with cheap oil. Good trading opps though.

Edited April 20, 2010 by lannarebirth

[Naam]

This post has been edited by zorro1: Today, 2010-04-20 14:03:59

and all of us are wondering what Zorro deleted

[Naam]

This could be a job for agent........

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................

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Naam

i am not into voodoo

[ExpatJ]

Sorry , i couldn't resist it. My post:

Expatj- I heard that the 50-day Moving Primary Line will be below and above 15% (simultaneously) this week indicating a strong over hold re: stocks. Also expect full scale advance (backwards) from 11,000 sometime this month (but not before today). Also , its clear currencies, according to PPP comparison, will rise (but not in Greenwich Mean Time, obviously)

is a parody of Zorro's post:

Zorros- The Dow dropped sharply on Friday to test short-term support at 11000. Failure would signal a larger correction back to support at 10700. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) retreat below 10% would confirm. The long-term target for the breakout remains 12000*; with reversal below primary support at 9900 unlikely.

[zorro1]

Sorry , i couldn't resist it. My post:

Expatj- I heard that the 50-day Moving Primary Line will be below and above 15% (simultaneously) this week indicating a strong over hold re: stocks. Also expect full scale advance (backwards) from 11,000 sometime this month (but not before today). Also , its clear currencies, according to PPP comparison, will rise (but not in Greenwich Mean Time, obviously)

is a parody of Zorro's post:

Zorros- The Dow dropped sharply on Friday to test short-term support at 11000. Failure would signal a larger correction back to support at 10700. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) retreat below 10% would confirm. The long-term target for the breakout remains 12000*; with reversal below primary support at 9900 unlikely.

Pretty good work Expatj . Naam is an ex squirrel whisperer and you even had him fooled.

Thats from a news letter, just helps to keep an eye on the big picture

[badge]

A couple of things I like to observe in US equity markets.

The VIX Index is at levels where traders are as confident of portfolio gains as they were in Mid 2007.

The (smoothed)Total Put/Call ratio also shows how cosy traders currently feel.

Lastly Investors Intelligence sentiment reading of BUllish and Bearish newsletter advisors. Bullish respondants are at levels seen in Early Jan '10 and Jan '08, there are however slightly more Bearish newsletter pundits now compared to Jan '10, but fewer still than Jan '08.

[midas]

A couple of things I like to observe in US equity markets.

The VIX Index is at levels where traders are as confident of portfolio gains as they were in Mid 2007.

The (smoothed)Total Put/Call ratio also shows how cosy traders currently feel.

Lastly Investors Intelligence sentiment reading of BUllish and Bearish newsletter advisors. Bullish respondants are at levels seen in Early Jan '10 and Jan '08, there are however slightly more Bearish newsletter pundits now compared to Jan '10, but fewer still than Jan '08.

I could feel very cosy also if someone gave me money to go the casino

at almost no cost and with an offer to bail me out of i lose

[Abrak]

Flying, Thats about right. I don't want to be a retail mushroom anymore. I want inside info too!

Personally I dont really believe investing serious money in any stock unless I have a material information advantage over virtually every other investor.

[siamamerican]

Flying, Thats about right. I don't want to be a retail mushroom anymore. I want inside info too!

Personally I dont really believe investing serious money in any stock unless I have a material information advantage over virtually every other investor.

I don't know your age but unless you started investing around 2000ish, the average investor has doubled their investment every 10-15 years over the past 100 years. Insider trading does exist but not to the extent that the expert TV posters would have you believe. The internet is dominated by people with no other outlet to have an audience to express their fringe theories. The fact that they are right on rare occasion somehow fortifies their resolve to post more less than sane theories.

I've learned over the last few years that it really doesn't matter and is it's good for a few laughs. The internet is a world to its own and I can only hope the anonymous ramblings of self appointed prognosticators doesn't become mainstream.

[Abrak]

I don't know your age but unless you started investing around 2000ish, the average investor has doubled their investment every 10-15 years over the past 100 years. Insider trading does exist but not to the extent that the expert TV posters would have you believe. The internet is dominated by people with no other outlet to have an audience to express their fringe theories. The fact that they are right on rare occasion somehow fortifies their resolve to post more less than sane theories.

I've learned over the last few years that it really doesn't matter and is it's good for a few laughs. The internet is a world to its own and I can only hope the anonymous ramblings of self appointed prognosticators doesn't become mainstream.

Yes well first it really isnt that surprising that real stockmarket returns equate roughly to real GDP growth. Nominal returns need to reflect 3.4% average inflation. Rather depressingly there has now not been any equity risk premium over the last 40 years.

My comment about information advantage has absolutely nothing to do with 'insider trading'. Although markets are not 'efficient' it is usually best to assume so to a certain degree. I mean some people think that GS is a buy and some a sell. I havent really thought about it but one thing I am pretty certain about is there are several thousand people out there who are better informed and a lot smarter than me so whichever way I bet whatever happens is pure luck (and with the odds stacked against me.) I would never dream of investing in GS because I simply cannot think of a single thing I know about the company that everyone else doesnt. (none of this applies to you technical whizzes.)

For instance, one thing I certainly do is check whether Directors are selling or buying their own shares. 90% of investors dont even bother.

Informational advantage is about doing your homework. It really is truely amazing how many investors simply dont even read a prospectus let alone do anything proactive.

And I have no idea what your age is either but if you believe historic returns are any guidance to future returns then you havent even read the disclaimer. It isnt even a theory - just makes me wonder if you were the guy who invested in 2000 because over the previous 100 years stock prices had basically doubled over every 8 to 10 years.

[Gambles]

I could feel very cosy also if someone gave me money to go the casino

at almost no cost and with an offer to bail me out of i lose

You're incorporating yourself as a US bank ??

[Gambles]

I don't know your age but unless you started investing around 2000ish, the average investor has doubled their investment every 10-15 years over the past 100 years.

That's not quite right

Average for the 20th century is, I seem to recall, just under 10% CAR but more improtantly this was delivered very spasmodically

As an extreme example -investors in the DJIA at the 1929 peak would have come out with ~ zero gain at the 1974 trough some 45 years later!

[midas]

I could feel very cosy also if someone gave me money to go the casino

at almost no cost and with an offer to bail me out of i lose

You're incorporating yourself as a US bank ??

but I would have to believe in God

[midas]

This financial crisis ( not really but we seem to tag everything a crisis these days) so far has created little lasting damage in my opinion. Nothing earth shattering about what we experienced with the bursting of the housing bubble in America. Companies and countries will continue to prosper and both will experience tough times in the future.

If you dont find the level of moral bankruptcy revealed in this " confession "

to be " earth shattering " then you must have the same genes as Gordon Ghecko

I Worked For A Major Mortgage Company, And What We Did Was Criminal

For the person who can’t believe fraud could be committed on a grand scale, who believes the world works according to right and wrong, the truth is stark and simple: Originating banks allowed borrowers to say or to “state” or to lie about their income and no proof was required to back up what was said or “stated” or lied about. You could lie about your income to take out a new mortgage and the bank never checked to see if what you said was true or false

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/subprime-le...4#ixzz0ltEWvK98

[Gambles]

I could feel very cosy also if someone gave me money to go the casino

at almost no cost and with an offer to bail me out of i lose

You're incorporating yourself as a US bank ??

but I would have to believe in God

and work for him.....

[midas]

i predict 12,500 on the DJ if Portugal and / or Spain also ask for an IMF bailout

[Parvis]

i predict 12,500 on the DJ if Portugal and / or Spain also ask for an IMF bailout

I used to be in the "business" of "predicting" - but that was in the early days when I thought I new everything - before I was taught humility. Now I look into my "crystall ball" and see 10800 - by the end of May to mid of June - starting next week - but thats only 400 points.

[zorro1]

Micro anayalisis aside, can anyone explain why every major chrisis is being bought into?

Dubai

Goldman sachs

Greece

Thats not even mentioning dismal job numbers over last 12 months, all bought into.

Especially the last month or so, Dow nearly always red early , pulls back more and then SLOWLY bought into the green

[Parvis]

I Worked For A Major Mortgage Company, And What We Did Was Criminal

For the person who can't believe fraud could be committed on a grand scale, who believes the world works according to right and wrong, the truth is stark and simple: Originating banks allowed borrowers to say or to "state" or to lie about their income and no proof was required to back up what was said or "stated" or lied about. You could lie about your income to take out a new mortgage and the bank never checked to see if what you said was true or false

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/subprime-le...4#ixzz0ltEWvK98

It is always a question "of what can one get away with" - not a question of what is "morally wrong". We need proper "checks and balances" - which in itself are insufficient - but the least we can do.

Todays financial world is "controlled (to keep an orderly Market ?)" in order to make profit for a few. This "control" in most instances is not even illegal. Therefore the successful individuals in todays Financial World are those who "understand" - and because of their "small size" are able to "navigate" at will.

Edited April 24, 2010 by Parvis

[Parvis]

Micro anayalisis aside, can anyone explain why every major chrisis is being bought into?

To the "Main Street" it is explained as "Greed and Fear".

On "Wall Street" it is known as "Those who know and those who don't".

[midas]

Micro anayalisis aside, can anyone explain why every major chrisis is being bought into?

To the "Main Street" it is explained as "Greed and Fear".

On "Wall Street" it is known as "Those who know and those who don't".

a handful who know exactly when it will suit them to crash the market

[Parvis]

"Especially the last month or so, Dow nearly always red early , pulls back more and then SLOWLY bought into the green"

This is the "normal behaviour" of a "healthy" Market. The Market pulls back in the Morning on profittaking - then - consolidates before closing higher.

You may have noticed - the Market "struggles" now to close higher and will start a "pull back" early next week. This "pull back" should be at least 400 points - but not in straight line.

Edited April 24, 2010 by Parvis

[Gambles]

"Especially the last month or so, Dow nearly always red early , pulls back more and then SLOWLY bought into the green"

This is the "normal behaviour" of a "healthy" Market. The Market pulls back in the Morning on profittaking - then - consolidates before closing higher.

You may have noticed - the Market "struggles" now to close higher and will start a "pull back" early next week. This "pull back" should be at least 400 points - but not in straight line.

but look at the quality not just the quantity....I share John Sheehan's view that barring any shocks (which is a big disclaimer) then H2 '10 and H1 '11 is the crucial year....and could easily become the tragic year #2

[zorro1]

Market is about sentiment. I cant see the next 'Sub prime' happening anytime soon, thats been done already

" we got some unlucky breaks on the way down and will get some lucky breaks on the way up" (he forecasts large job growth )

Joe Bidden yesterday re the markets. Simple but very true

IMO if this recovery is real, its quite possible by ignoring the noise we may hit a new historical high.

Edited April 24, 2010 by zorro1

[Gambles]

Market is about sentiment. I cant see the next 'Sub prime' happening anytime soon, thats been done already

" we got some unlucky breaks on the way down and will get some lucky breaks on the way up" (he forecasts large job growth )

Joe Bidden yesterday re the markets. Simple but very true

IMO if this recovery is real, its quite possible by ignoring the noise we may hit a new historical high.

so opprtunity set is what 20-30% upside versus 90% downside??

You'd better be sure about the upside probability'

Looks like nickels in front of dozers to me......