The Stock Market

[Orion76]

I think Prechter has been calling the top since mid 2009... he's bound to be right sooner or later, every market crashes eventually

[badge]

I think Prechter has been calling the top since mid 2009... [...]

Try 1998

[midas]

I think Prechter has been calling the top since mid 2009... [...]

Try 1998

so is this guy wrong also ?

CNBC Anchors Freak Out After Marc Faber Says US Will Default

http://www.businessinsider.com/cnbc-anchor...-default-2010-2

[Orion76]

I think Prechter has been calling the top since mid 2009... [...]

Try 1998

He's been doing it since the 70's, but I meant the top of the 2009 rally from the March lows.

He did call the March bottom correctly.

He often turns out to be right but his timing is too imprecise to be of much use for the short term trader.

[Orion76]

so is this guy wrong also ?

CNBC Anchors Freak Out After Marc Faber Says US Will Default

http://www.businessinsider.com/cnbc-anchor...-default-2010-2

If CNBC anchors believe something then it's probably not true

Power Lunch is probably the dumbest business "news" show on TV. People who watch that garbage for investment ideas should IMO not be allowed to buy stocks, although when they get really excited about a rally it sometimes provides a good shorting opportunity

[badge]

I think Prechter has been calling the top since mid 2009... [...]

Try 1998

He's been doing it since the 70's, but I meant the top of the 2009 rally from the March lows.

He did call the March bottom correctly.

He often turns out to be right but his timing is too imprecise to be of much use for the short term trader.

He called SPX a short at 1000 last year, with a possible 100 handle stop at 1100(!).

He did also call the March 2009 low(roughly).

Prechters a genius, however he and his co's wave analysis is - as you say - of no practical use for any trading in my opinion.

[siamamerican]

I've now invested 100% of my allotted stock market investment funds into equities/ETF's across the globe. 2 weeks ago I owned zero stocks! Really hard to call the markets short term direction but the only thing that matters is that it is worth more when I sell it. I read the last few pages of this topic and it's odd the abuse posters take for calling the market wrong. If I was right 80% of the time on my short term market predictions I would be extremely rich. As it is, I'm right slightly more than I'm wrong in the short term but almost always rewarded in the long term.

For what it is worth, I'm betting the market rebounds sometime in the next 2 weeks and the Dow will be above 10300. I'm extremely confident my portfolio(down 3%) will be heavy in the money before year end.

You're willing to go in 100% in the hopes of making 3%? How great of a stop loss would one put on that? Just curious.

Sorry, where did I mention I would hope to make 3%??? The Dow is now above 10300 as I "guessed" and I've up more than 3%. Maybe my post was ambiguous.

[siamamerican]

I've now invested 100% of my allotted stock market

allotted

could be $500 could $500k how else could you invest it but 100%?

I've set aside (allotted) a certain amount of my saving for stock market investments. Could be $500 or 500k. My point was that I'm all in at this point and oh so happy!

[siamamerican]

I've now invested 100% of my allotted stock market investment funds into equities/ETF's across the globe. 2 weeks ago I owned zero stocks! Really hard to call the markets short term direction but the only thing that matters is that it is worth more when I sell it. I read the last few pages of this topic and it's odd the abuse posters take for calling the market wrong. If I was right 80% of the time on my short term market predictions I would be extremely rich. As it is, I'm right slightly more than I'm wrong in the short term but almost always rewarded in the long term.

For what it is worth, I'm betting the market rebounds sometime in the next 2 weeks and the Dow will be above 10300. I'm extremely confident my portfolio(down 3%) will be heavy in the money before year end.

You're willing to go in 100% in the hopes of making 3%? How great of a stop loss would one put on that? Just curious.

This is a serious question....based on your own statement " Really hard to call the markets short term direction ",

at that sort ratio wouldn't the odds of making money be better in a casino ?

Not as I see it. Long term equity investments have vastly outperformed my casino investments(negative return). I reread my post and am still at a loss finding where I mentioned I would be happy with a 3% return. Now, 2 posters have brought it up so maybe I'm just not seeing it. Anyhow, I wouldn't be happy with a 3% annual return, considering the risk.

I'm a traditional buy and hold investor until the financial crisis hit. I felt it was an opportunity to capitalize on the panic. Sure things were awful but the world as a whole was and is doing just fine financially. America and Europe have their issues but most the world is adding wealth and that is where money can be made. Russia, China, Brazil,... all saw their stock markets initially fall further than the "west".

My point is that I can buy into these panics over the last 2 years and make hefty returns. I actually double down(casino) as it drops until I'm all in. The worst that can happen is that the short term investment becomes a long term investment if the markets don't rebound in the short term. Enough rambling on my part and maybe I've just been lucky the last 2 years.

Edited February 18, 2010 by siamamerican

[siamamerican]

I've now invested 100% of my allotted stock market investment funds into equities/ETF's across the globe. 2 weeks ago I owned zero stocks! Really hard to call the markets short term direction but the only thing that matters is that it is worth more when I sell it. I read the last few pages of this topic and it's odd the abuse posters take for calling the market wrong. If I was right 80% of the time on my short term market predictions I would be extremely rich. As it is, I'm right slightly more than I'm wrong in the short term but almost always rewarded in the long term.For what it is worth, I'm betting the market rebounds sometime in the next 2 weeks and the Dow will be above 10300. I'm extremely confident my portfolio(down 3%) will be heavy in the money before year end.

Lots of traders are profitable with as little as a 30% success rate because their risk reward ratio is better than 1:3 and they use good money management, ie. not holding on to losing trades.

I'm extremely confident my portfolio(down 3%) will be heavy in the money before year end.

Extreme confidence has blown many trading accounts.

What criteria have you set for selling your shares if you are wrong? Even if you are right in the long run, being underwater for 10 months is bad for your mental wellbeing, and leaves your capital tied up in unprofitable investments.

We just look at it differently. You feel you can make more money jumping in and out of the market like I've been doing of late. I'm fine with holding short term losers and long term winners. Not too stressful just part of the investment game as I see it.

I found myself in a fortunate situation as the financial crisis unfolded. I was all in cash just having sold I my long term stock holdings. I will eventually sink my money again into stocks I plan on holding long term after I get caught buying into the panics we've had over the last 2 years.

[ExpatJ]

I was largely out of the market during the meltdown of 2008/9 and also during the bull rally that followed (unfortunately)..ive just decided to jump into the Thailand stock exchange...some of the highest dividends in the world, but alot of volatility - from what i can see the local investors tend to buy and sell quite frequently. My current MO is to sell whenever a stock increases by 5%..if it increases to 7% i then buy in again..if it falls i move to the next stock on my watch list..

http://siamstocks.blogspot.com

[thecottonmill]

I was largely out of the market during the meltdown of 2008/9 and also during the bull rally that followed (unfortunately)..ive just decided to jump into the Thailand stock exchange...some of the highest dividends in the world, but alot of volatility - from what i can see the local investors tend to buy and sell quite frequently. My current MO is to sell whenever a stock increases by 5%..if it increases to 7% i then buy in again..if it falls i move to the next stock on my watch list..

http://siamstocks.blogspot.com

Had a quick look at your blog - nice work there expatJ!

I'm holding off from investing for another week. I think there may be a small nosedive but I'm excited about future prospects. KBANK, ADVANC, HMPRO, LH, LPN and the excellently run CPN are all on my watchlist.

We live in interesting times!

[zorro1]

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow broke through resistance at 10300 to signal a bear trap, with a target of the January high at 10750. Reversal below 9900 is now unlikely, but would signal correction to 9000 — the base of the long-term broadening wedge. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) respect of the zero line indicates buying pressure

Edited February 22, 2010 by zorro1

[zorro1]

Big fat cross, indecision, if dow bounces from here their will be a solid uptrend. All in my humble opinion of course...

[churchill]

I think down from here imo

[midas]

I think down from here imo

After HSBC reported their results today which fell far short of anyalysts

expectations, I was listening to a number of interviews on Bloomberg this afternoon

and the experts were saying the same as you

[zorro1]

Why do you say that? notice the tail on the cross is lengthening and the uptrend on second chart below? you could be right but unlikely short term

trade at your own risk DYOR

Edited March 1, 2010 by zorro1

[churchill]

A good stock to short from here

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/bi...&mocktick=1

[zorro1]

I think down from here imo

After HSBC reported their results today which fell far short of anyalysts

expectations, I was listening to a number of interviews on Bloomberg this afternoon

and the experts were saying the same as you

whats an eggspurt?

[zorro1]

The volume is OFF THE CHART.

The negative move is OFF THE CHART.

I love this chart. What dill continued to sell after that big red candle?

[zorro1]

Why do you say that? notice the tail on the cross is lengthening and the uptrend on second chart below? you could be right but unlikely short term

trade at your own risk DYOR

very quite in here, dont tell me you guys have ignored history and missed the second rally as well?

Midas you can call me mr market like you said . I did tell you around 10,000 it was time to buy "about now"

11,000 will be exit for me, whats the song by dire straights? money for nuthin and your chicks...

[midas]

Why do you say that? notice the tail on the cross is lengthening and the uptrend on second chart below? you could be right but unlikely short term

trade at your own risk DYOR

very quite in here, dont tell me you guys have ignored history and missed the second rally as well?

Midas you can call me mr market like you said . I did tell you around 10,000 it was time to buy "about now"

11,000 will be exit for me, whats the song by dire straights? money for nuthin and your chicks...

I am off to Macau tonight for the weekend to do it all in one hit

[loong]

Why do you say that? notice the tail on the cross is lengthening and the uptrend on second chart below? you could be right but unlikely short term

trade at your own risk DYOR

very quite in here, dont tell me you guys have ignored history and missed the second rally as well?

Midas you can call me mr market like you said . I did tell you around 10,000 it was time to buy "about now"

11,000 will be exit for me, whats the song by dire straights? money for nuthin and your chicks...

Kindly direct us to the post where you advised buy and Hold at around 10,000. I certainly haven't seen it.

[zorro1]

Why do you say that? notice the tail on the cross is lengthening and the uptrend on second chart below? you could be right but unlikely short term

trade at your own risk DYOR

very quite in here, dont tell me you guys have ignored history and missed the second rally as well?

Midas you can call me mr market like you said . I did tell you around 10,000 it was time to buy "about now"

11,000 will be exit for me, whats the song by dire straights? money for nuthin and your chicks...

Kindly direct us to the post where you advised buy and Hold at around 10,000. I certainly haven't seen it.

grass hopper ask midas and look for where he calls me mr market around 10,000. yawnnn was wondering why it was so quite your all hiding in the woods again

Why fight the charts, you guys must be all school teachers apart from midas who errrm is just a ....

[loong]

Kindly direct us to the post where you advised buy and Hold at around 10,000. I certainly haven't seen it.

grass hopper ask midas and look for where he calls me mr market around 10,000. yawnnn was wondering why it was so quite your all hiding in the woods again

Why fight the charts, you guys must be all school teachers apart from midas who errrm is just a ....

Well actually your posts do not mention that you will be buying into the market for the longer term.

2010-02-03 07:34:43

Post #1292

"midas you ready to call me mr market laugh.gif told you about the bounce"

2010-02-05 07:35:53

Post #1294

"The best time to buy but just make sure you sell next day. market SMASHED!!!"

2010-02-05 16:37:07

Post #1296

"I dont care now I take any profit i see on the bounces. Bought today and anything more than -50 (upwards) will see a tidy profit monday. If not then I take the loss. now we are at the casino ."

basjke called you on this one, because the time of your post was hours before the market opened. You would have had to have bought Dow futures that were above 10,000 at that time. You didn't respond to him re the time of your post.

A few hours after your post Dow futures were around 9830 !

Of course, the next day your post tells a different story...

2010-02-06 06:01:29

Post #1302

"I bought friday when dow was -260

I will sell monday when the dow is +10"

"Buy low sell high Midas a monkey can do it."

Here you claim to have managed to buy at exactly the low point!? After the market has risen again but still below 10,000. But in your previous post you had bought above 10,000.

Yes even a Monkey can claim to buy low/sell high with the benefit of hindsight

Also please note that here you are advocating trading the bounces short term. Nowhere do you suggest that you will be buying to hold for the longer term.

The biggest Yaaawn here is you with your adolescent crowing. When will you realise that since the beginning of this thread the Dow has only risen 15% with some dips on the way - THIS is normal market movements. Nothing out of the ordinary.

Most of your posts are not stating your calls as you make them, but like with PEN, claims to have bought at the low and sold at the high After the move has happened

I remember that you posted that you had sold PEN a few times at the peaks and bought in again at the troughs during the move from around 0.028 to 0.060 - amazing considering that most downmoves from the peaks were less than 10%. That is incredible timing!. But of course a monkey can do it with the benefit of hindsight!

So you traded PEN on spikes of less than 10%, yet expect us to believe that from 0.060 you held on while it dropped 30% and again managed to close the position at exactly the recent high??

You have no idea what you are doing and if you have made money with the markets, it is due to one thing only - You have been lucky.

Edited March 6, 2010 by loong

[flying]

After the move has happened

You have discovered the key to successful forum stock trading claims

[nakachalet]

several months back, there are several suggestions from serious traders that in order to help those reading the board and those desire learning to trade, traders for real money or traders on sim (simulated trade, paper trade) to post:

1--date and time of each trade;

2--commodity name;

3--price entry, long or short, and;

4--if desire, also indicate reason(s) for long or short....

with the above sort of posting, everyone would learn of the essentials of trading, the style of traders, etc.

MORE IMPORTANTLY, with specific trading report--it will cut down a lot of talking, explaining, overlapping, spurious claiming and many misunderstanding....

besides, every trader who wishes to post would only need no more than 5 min to post.... vs.... fraction of hour....

thus saving himself/herself, readers and moderators plenty of time and headache.... not to mention heartache.... when challenged....

MOST IMPORTANTLY, traders/posters themselves would have no need to spend endless hour to search all over the creation or google.... to find VIP quotes/counter quotes to support their position and their reasoning.... so as to feel self important, wanted or otherwise.... LOL

we all can make this a very exciting, interesting and challenging forum.... each revealing one's own true trading ability.... rather than on someone else saying or quoting....

just wonder.... how many traders on this forum have the willingness and guts to put themselves out....

this method would surely eliminate many arm chair philosophers and backtrackers etc.... (reminding myself mostly.... LOL)

Edited March 6, 2010 by nakachalet

[lannarebirth]

several months back, there are several suggestions from serious traders that in order to help those reading the board and those desire learning to trade, traders for real money or traders on sim (simulated trade, paper trade) to post:

1--date and time of each trade;

2--commodity name;

3--price entry, long or short, and;

4--if desire, also indicate reason(s) for long or short....

with the above sort of posting, everyone would learn of the essentials of trading, the style of traders, etc.

MORE IMPORTANTLY, with specific trading report--it will cut down a lot of talking, explaining, overlapping, spurious claiming and many misunderstanding....

besides, every trader who wishes to post would only need no more than 5 min to post.... vs.... fraction of hour....

thus saving himself/herself, readers and moderators plenty of time and headache.... not to mention heartache.... when challenged....

^^ Don't you think that would be better suited for a real trader's board? Sometimes people here will come up with an interesting idea or insight but I don't think anyone needs to take any trading claims seriously, nor should they. Gonna start a money management thread as well?

[Abrak]

^^ Don't you think that would be better suited for a real trader's board? Sometimes people here will come up with an interesting idea or insight but I don't think anyone needs to take any trading claims seriously, nor should they. Gonna start a money management thread as well?

I am with you there Lanna although I am sure you will do well on both boards (rather odd that).

The only thing I am interested in is why someone is buying/shorting a company. Trading claims on the internet, true or not, are pretty puerile (apologies Zorro1) and if you cant find out the price yourself you are pretty feeble. I am sure a trading board would be good too but price date time name long or short (with reason optional) doesnt make any sense. Do you think everyone is going to keep tabs. I like ideas especially at the margin.

[zorro1]

Seems to be the same old bunch of bears here led by Midas (what a winner ) offereing nothing but gloom , no matter what charts are posted , where the dow is , its the same and has more to do with the majority of men here are losers in all aspects. better to buy the g/f a 100k house than to risk a trade in a rising market

The last chart i posted ,and i seem to be the only one , clearly shows a cross but more chance of an uptrend as hinted. worked out to plan and from here momentum will clearly be on the up.

here is something to digest from fridays bounce. Also let me say i wont be posting on a traders "forum" as mentioned. why? i want the bears to fail miserably ,probably twice for most . losing all your money in the gfc and missing the bounce has got to hurt bad

Wall St jumps on positive jobs report

http://thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=9927

p.s Im in sydney at the moment,cant get a descent hotel room under $200 in the last 2 weeks. recession? Stick with ASX eventually will decouple from the dow but not just yet