The Stock Market

[flying]

Obama's lack of any kind of moral compass in just irresponsibly playing to the gallery on BP (until this I was undecided but marginally positive about B.O.) has given me an idea for an article

Bush was the strawman needing abrain

Brown was the unemotional tin man

Obama is the lion

Thatcher as the wicked witch

and Clegg & Cameron are munchkins?

:D

[Abrak]

Well Badge, congratulations on being probably one of the 0.1% of shareholders who got paid their first quarter dividend. It will be interesting to know if they ask you to pay it back.

[loong]

Well Badge, congratulations on being probably one of the 0.1% of shareholders who got paid their first quarter dividend. It will be interesting to know if they ask you to pay it back.

This does raise a number of questions.

If they claimed the dividend back from those who were long BP via CFD's at the ex-dividend date, they would also have to credit those who were short?

When a stock goes ex-dividend, the price of that stock automatically drops by the amount of the divi. So those who physically held the shares and sold immediately after it went ex-dividend should have a case to demand that the dividend be paid.

[badge]

Well Badge, congratulations on being probably one of the 0.1% of shareholders who got paid their first quarter dividend. It will be interesting to know if they ask you to pay it back.

This does raise a number of questions.

If they claimed the dividend back from those who were long BP via CFD's at the ex-dividend date, they would also have to credit those who were short?

When a stock goes ex-dividend, the price of that stock automatically drops by the amount of the divi. So those who physically held the shares and sold immediately after it went ex-dividend should have a case to demand that the dividend be paid.

Those short BP.L and paid a dividend will have it credited. My dividend payment is being debited from my account today I wonder how far they would go if I had already closed my account?

Stocks dont automatically do anything pre or post dividend so there would be no case for anything, other than an investigation into what is a disgraceful move without shareholder consent in my opinion.

BP.L didnt drop at all when it went ex-div last month, it actually headed higher. It was quite a gift at the time

[Abrak]

Those short BP.L and paid a dividend will have it credited. My dividend payment is being debited from my account today I wonder how far they would go if I had already closed my account?

Stocks dont automatically do anything pre or post dividend so there would be no case for anything, other than an investigation into what is a disgraceful move without shareholder consent in my opinion.

BP.L didnt drop at all when it went ex-div last month, it actually headed higher. It was quite a gift at the time

Do you get a vote with your CFD in BP? If you do then I guess debiting your account is fair, conceptually to me. If not the underlying shareholder should really take responsibility for paying you the dividend before they have received theirs.

To be fair to the extent that the price falls 'because' it goes Ex-D, it is under the 'assumption' that a dividend will be paid. However a dividend can be cancelled up until the payment date at the 'discretion' of the Directors. So they cannot be held liable for that bad 'assumption'.

But that payment was a 'sucker punch' issue in the US. Obama never asked for the 1Q dividend to be cancelled because that would appear to be attacking shareholders. But if the BP management didnt cancel it and simply cancelled future payments, you can guarantee that next Monday he would be making a 'this very day BP has paid a dividend to its shareholders of over US$2bn (yes I mean 'billion') while there are still grown men crying on our televisions about their, their children and their children's children future has been destroyed.'

[badge]

Those short BP.L and paid a dividend will have it credited. My dividend payment is being debited from my account today I wonder how far they would go if I had already closed my account?

Stocks dont automatically do anything pre or post dividend so there would be no case for anything, other than an investigation into what is a disgraceful move without shareholder consent in my opinion.

BP.L didnt drop at all when it went ex-div last month, it actually headed higher. It was quite a gift at the time

Do you get a vote with your CFD in BP? If you do then I guess debiting your account is fair, conceptually to me. If not the underlying shareholder should really take responsibility for paying you the dividend before they have received theirs.

To be fair to the extent that the price falls 'because' it goes Ex-D, it is under the 'assumption' that a dividend will be paid. However a dividend can be cancelled up until the payment date at the 'discretion' of the Directors. So they cannot be held liable for that bad 'assumption'.

But that payment was a 'sucker punch' issue in the US. Obama never asked for the 1Q dividend to be cancelled because that would appear to be attacking shareholders. But if the BP management didnt cancel it and simply cancelled future payments, you can guarantee that next Monday he would be making a 'this very day BP has paid a dividend to its shareholders of over US$2bn (yes I mean 'billion') while there are still grown men crying on our televisions about their, their children and their children's children future has been destroyed.'

No voting rights and I agree.

[Gambles]

From our primary portfolio co-advisor, Scott Campbell, -

WEEKLY COMMENT WEEK 24

WHERE TO FROM HERE FOR GLOBAL EQUITIES?

Day traders must be getting whipsawed all over the place as technical indicators point in different directions at the end of the day compared to the start. Fundamentalists are getting mixed signals as US employment data is nonexistent when excluding government census workers and retails sales fell sharply in May, disappointing investors with the first decline in 8 months, yet markets go up! Liquidity lead indicators are rolling over, the big picture is dire and yet valuations / corporate balance sheets are in pretty good shape. Where to from here?

Gerard Minack, an investment strategist / analyst with Morgan Stanley in Sydney who I first met in 2003 had the following to say a couple of weeks ago about the subject.

“At 5-10% below current levels we think markets will have taken some account of the downside risk to earnings. In a framework that expects markets to trade in broad ranges, this could be a level to buy back. That would be on the proviso that sovereign stress has been contained, for now. It would also depend on the leading indicators suggesting slower growth, but no hard landing. There is a risk that the growth slowdown is more pronounced in 2011, in our view, but we doubt that investors will see enough news to price in such a risk in, say, the next 1-2 quarters. Put another way, the S&P500 at around 1000 would price in the risks that seem probable for the second half.”

The above chart is taken from Teun Draaisma, The Aftermath of Secular Bear Markets, 10th August 2009 and is based on 19 episodes or actual bear markets in various asset classes.

Whilst fundamentals for growth, earnings and consumer confidence will dictate where equity markets head over the coming months, it hard not to notice a few key technical levels.

From a longer term view, a 62% Fibonacci retracement of the 2007-2009 bear market on the S&P500 would have lead to the 1237 level as a top. We got to 1217.

This level ties up almost exactly with the average 71% bounce from the bottom in the above table

On a shorter term basis, a Fibonacci retracement of the gains made since March 09 gives a target of 950-1000 on the S&P500

That is of course assuming that the medium term trend has now changed. With Europe in Financial Crisis, deflation in the west, Gold going up 4 fold and consumers still mired in debt overload, it is difficult to see March 09 was the start of a new multi-year bull market for western equities. However, with volatility, opportunities abound and secular growth in the emerging world is simply recovering from a cyclical slowdown.

[PCA]

From our primary portfolio co-advisor, Scott Campbell, -

WEEKLY COMMENT WEEK 24

WHERE TO FROM HERE FOR GLOBAL EQUITIES?

Day traders must be getting whipsawed all over the place as technical indicators point in different directions at the end of the day compared to the start. Fundamentalists are getting mixed signals as US employment data is nonexistent when excluding government census workers and retails sales fell sharply in May, disappointing investors with the first decline in 8 months, yet markets go up! Liquidity lead indicators are rolling over, the big picture is dire and yet valuations / corporate balance sheets are in pretty good shape. Where to from here?

Gerard Minack, an investment strategist / analyst with Morgan Stanley in Sydney who I first met in 2003 had the following to say a couple of weeks ago about the subject.

“At 5-10% below current levels we think markets will have taken some account of the downside risk to earnings. In a framework that expects markets to trade in broad ranges, this could be a level to buy back. That would be on the proviso that sovereign stress has been contained, for now. It would also depend on the leading indicators suggesting slower growth, but no hard landing. There is a risk that the growth slowdown is more pronounced in 2011, in our view, but we doubt that investors will see enough news to price in such a risk in, say, the next 1-2 quarters. Put another way, the S&P500 at around 1000 would price in the risks that seem probable for the second half.”

The above chart is taken from Teun Draaisma, The Aftermath of Secular Bear Markets, 10th August 2009 and is based on 19 episodes or actual bear markets in various asset classes.

Whilst fundamentals for growth, earnings and consumer confidence will dictate where equity markets head over the coming months, it hard not to notice a few key technical levels.

From a longer term view, a 62% Fibonacci retracement of the 2007-2009 bear market on the S&P500 would have lead to the 1237 level as a top. We got to 1217.

This level ties up almost exactly with the average 71% bounce from the bottom in the above table

On a shorter term basis, a Fibonacci retracement of the gains made since March 09 gives a target of 950-1000 on the S&P500

That is of course assuming that the medium term trend has now changed. With Europe in Financial Crisis, deflation in the west, Gold going up 4 fold and consumers still mired in debt overload, it is difficult to see March 09 was the start of a new multi-year bull market for western equities. However, with volatility, opportunities abound and secular growth in the emerging world is simply recovering from a cyclical slowdown.

nananana, now this is from whom Scott Campbell or Gerard Minack or Teuun Draaisma, sounds like a bunch of clueless wanke_rs to me. Nothing against you Paul as you just did a clean copy and paste job

[Gambles]

nananana, now this is from whom Scott Campbell or Gerard Minack or Teuun Draaisma, sounds like a bunch of clueless wanke_rs to me. Nothing against you Paul as you just did a clean copy and paste job

TBH the best part is Scott's conclusion -

With Europe in Financial Crisis, deflation in the west, Gold going up 4 fold and consumers still mired in debt overload, it is difficult to see March 09 was the start of a new multi-year bull market for western equities. However, with volatility, opportunities abound and secular growth in the emerging world is simply recovering from a cyclical slowdown.

I probably should have just posted that!

[badge]

[...]

This area has been rather tumultuous[uK mining Co's], but has essentially been surpassed, plus European markets are called higher at the open. My model suggets the next possible profit taking level lies around 3.5%-4% above. BLT.L last closed at 1919.

Edit: To remain fair Im also showng a sell signal c1% above the last close, but due to the exuberance of futures Im assuming its void(i.e surpassed).

BLT.L opened at 2012 this AM, so bailed out.

System says as that resistance was void/surpassed by c1% that it should move higher to next area of imbalance, by another 4%.

System also showing sell signals on FTSE at 5350, 5490 then 5575/60, and on ESX at 2805/10 and 2830/35.

[badge]

Dont fret, theres still a chance for Midas to get Long, eventually

[midas]

Dont fret, theres still a chance for Midas to get Long, eventually

Why would I possibly want to do that ? There is a Financial Tsuanami coming

China’s Housing Market Worse Than US Before Subprime Collapse

China's Housing Market Worse Than US Before Subprime Collapse

and your graph was posted incorrectly

Edited June 23, 2010 by midas

[midas]

even an amateur like me knows how worrying this is

[midas]

An interesting analysis of the " flash crash "

How HFT Quote Stuffing Caused The Market Crash Of May 6, And Threatens To Destroy The Entire Market At Any Moment | zero hedge

" I've said it before, and there will undoubtedly be many more opportunities to say it again: We don't have a market anymore, we have a crime scene."

[flying]

" I've said it before, and there will undoubtedly be many more opportunities to say it again: We don't have a market anymore, we have a crime scene."

You know that would be a funny cartoon....Dow & Naz as chalk outlines

Edited June 24, 2010 by flying

[Parvis]

An interesting analysis of the " flash crash "

How HFT Quote Stuffing Caused The Market Crash Of May 6, And Threatens To Destroy The Entire Market At Any Moment | zero hedge

" I've said it before, and there will undoubtedly be many more opportunities to say it again: We don't have a market anymore, we have a crime scene."

If it gets too hot - get out of the kitchen.

[midas]

An interesting analysis of the " flash crash "

How HFT Quote Stuffing Caused The Market Crash Of May 6, And Threatens To Destroy The Entire Market At Any Moment | zero hedge

" I've said it before, and there will undoubtedly be many more opportunities to say it again: We don't have a market anymore, we have a crime scene."

If it gets too hot - get out of the kitchen.

i never even went in......the stench of rotten garbage kept me out

[Parvis]

An interesting analysis of the " flash crash "

How HFT Quote Stuffing Caused The Market Crash Of May 6, And Threatens To Destroy The Entire Market At Any Moment | zero hedge

" I've said it before, and there will undoubtedly be many more opportunities to say it again: We don't have a market anymore, we have a crime scene."

If it gets too hot - get out of the kitchen.

i never even went in......the stench of rotten garbage kept me out

I understand - "The stench of the Bull" can be quite overwhelming - if you are a straggler.

Edited June 24, 2010 by Parvis

[midas]

An interesting analysis of the " flash crash "

How HFT Quote Stuffing Caused The Market Crash Of May 6, And Threatens To Destroy The Entire Market At Any Moment | zero hedge

" I've said it before, and there will undoubtedly be many more opportunities to say it again: We don't have a market anymore, we have a crime scene."

If it gets too hot - get out of the kitchen.

i never even went in......the stench of rotten garbage kept me out

I understand - "The stench of the Bull" can be quite overwhelming - if you are a straggler.

Bulls .......are there any left ?

Equity Outflows Unstoppable, As 7th Sequential Outflow Of Domestic Equity Funds Brings Total YTD Redemptions To $29 Bn | zero hedge

[badge]

Thanks for all of your equity market insights Midas.

Ive got a tip for you; ZeroHedge is for bed-wetters.

[midas]

Thanks for all of your equity market insights Midas.

Ive got a tip for you; ZeroHedge is for bed-wetters.

Ok badge so what valuable insights do you have to contribute ???

[Parvis]

Thanks for all of your equity market insights Midas.

Ive got a tip for you; ZeroHedge is for bed-wetters.

Ok badge so what valuable insights do you have to contribute ???

Confucious say:

"The Markets shall fluctuate"

Edited June 25, 2010 by Parvis

[midas]

zerohedge at least is more credible than the pure unadulterated crap about recovery and green shoots……

Either you have a recovery or you dont

China To Announce New 4 Trillion Yuan Stimulus?

China To Announce New 4 Trillion Yuan Stimulus? « Finance Blog

Kokumin Shinto calls for ¥100 trillion stimulus

Kokumin Shinto calls for ¥100 trillion stimulus | The Japan Times Online

US money supply plunges at 1930s pace as Obama eyes fresh stimulus

US money supply plunges at 1930s pace as Obama eyes fresh stimulus - Telegraph

[midas]

Thanks for all of your equity market insights Midas.

Ive got a tip for you; ZeroHedge is for bed-wetters.

Ok badge so what valuable insights do you have to contribute ???

Confucious say:

"The Markets shall fluctuate"

When you're in a pit, the first thing to do is to stop digging.

James Ellman, Seacliffe Capital

[Parvis]

Thanks for all of your equity market insights Midas.

Ive got a tip for you; ZeroHedge is for bed-wetters.

Ok badge so what valuable insights do you have to contribute ???

Confucious say:

"The Markets shall fluctuate"

When you're in a pit, the first thing to do is to stop digging.

James Ellman, Seacliffe Capital

Confucious say:

"Avoid the pit altogether - Bulls make money - Bears make money - Pigs get slaughtered"

Edited June 25, 2010 by Parvis

[midas]

When you're in a pit, the first thing to do is to stop digging.

James Ellman, Seacliffe Capital

Confucious say:

"Avoid the pit altogether - Bulls make money - Bears make money - Pigs get slaughtered"

You are not wrong ..the PIIGS will get slaughtered

But that is the problem

http://www.businessinsider.com/history-tells-us-the-euro-will-not-survive-greece-will-get-worse-and-there-will-be-a-trade-shock-2010-6

[badge]

Thanks for all of your equity market insights Midas.

Ive got a tip for you; ZeroHedge is for bed-wetters.

Ok badge so what valuable insights do you have to contribute ???

I was refering to this refreshingly new view....

Why would I possibly want to do that ? There is a Financial Tsuanami coming

China's Housing Market Worse Than US Before Subprime Collapse

China's Housing Market Worse Than US Before Subprime Collapse

and your graph was posted incorrectly

...with tongue firmly in cheek

I dont 'get' this:

When you're in a pit, the first thing to do is to stop digging.

James Ellman, Seacliffe Capital

Whos digging and for what?

[BlackJack]

all the doom and gloom scenarios are pointing to gold and silver rises

[flying]

bit-O-action today....ECB problems?

[lannarebirth]

Gaps

That's one.