The Stock Market

[flying]

BKX

As soon as it went below 46 .....things got going.

FAZ going north...of course

I like these as things to watch.

[Naam]

all the doom and gloom scenarios are pointing to gold and silver rises

then why did both fall?

[Abrak]

Gaps

That's one.

Lanna,

I struggle with 'gaps'.

Here is a chart I look at because it tends to be a good lead indicator.

http://www.stocktiming.com/Shanghai_Daily_Stock_Market_Updates/shanghai-index-update-tuesday.htm

Not looking great, I suspect. However there is a 'gap' in Mid April on the way down. Arguably it has been 'filled in' historically. But would you expect it to bounce to those levels in this year.

[lannarebirth]

Gaps

That's one.

Lanna,

I struggle with 'gaps'.

Here is a chart I look at because it tends to be a good lead indicator.

http://www.stocktimi...ate-tuesday.htm

Not looking great, I suspect. However there is a 'gap' in Mid April on the way down. Arguably it has been 'filled in' historically. But would you expect it to bounce to those levels in this year.

I expect it will fill at some point in the next Chinese bull market or echo bubble. That one you show is particularly nasty as it gapped out of a triangle that I imagine many traders expected would break higher and it gapped out lower like it fell through a trapdoor, signifying a continuation triangle. That triangle targets 2100ish BTW, FWIW and OCICBW..

Notice BTW where the initial leg down of that triangle bottomed. It bottomed after filling the gap left the previous May.

Edited July 2, 2010 by lannarebirth

[Abrak]

I expect it will fill at some point in the next Chinese bull market or echo bubble. That one you show is particularly nasty as it gapped out of a triangle that I imagine many traders expected would break higher and it gapped out lower like it fell through a trapdoor, signifying a continuation triangle. That triangle targets 2100ish BTW, FWIW and OCICBW..

Notice BTW where the initial leg down of that triangle bottomed. It bottomed after filling the gap left the previous May.

What's vaguely interesting about China (not that I have ever invested there) is that there are now many stocks coming up on screenings as fundamentally undervalued. At 2100, I would guess there would be quite a lot of value interest. A lot of stale bulls I would guess in that market.

[BlackJack]

all the doom and gloom scenarios are pointing to gold and silver rises

then why did both fall?

because of creative accounting of course

its not in the interests of the US$ to have gold raise its head

thats the last thing they want

but hey they cant hold back the tide no more that the oil spill

if BP goes under (likely more everyday) then thar she blows

[midas]

Is someone able to comment whether my understanding is correct or incorrect on this issue :-

Is it the case that when the Bulls eventually become Bearish this is good for the stock market ? I have never been sure of the thinking behind this. Is that because everyone is selling into the rally which sends the index up or is it for another reason that it is still considered to be positive for the stock market ?

I ask this because of article I read today :-

Uber Bull Barton Biggs Throws In The Towel, Slashes Stock Holdings

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-bull-barton-biggs-throws-in-the-towel-slashes-stock-holdings-2010-7#ixzz0sjPvUIVs

[Abrak]

Is someone able to comment whether my understanding is correct or incorrect on this issue :-

Is it the case that when the Bulls eventually become Bearish this is good for the stock market ? I have never been sure of the thinking behind this. Is that because everyone is selling into the rally which sends the index up or is it for another reason that it is still considered to be positive for the stock market ?

I ask this because of article I read today :-

Uber Bull Barton Biggs Throws In The Towel, Slashes Stock Holdings

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-bull-barton-biggs-throws-in-the-towel-slashes-stock-holdings-2010-7#ixzz0sjPvUIVs

The answer is essentially yes and the logic incontrovertible. Imagine a stockmarket where 100% of people are bullish (that includes you Midas). By definition that means everyone is maximum invested in the stockmarket (not that everyone has put all their assets in the market, they are 'maximum' invested.) Then if 'one' person turns bearish there is no buyer for his stock unless the price falls.

Still that is rational thought. The greatest signals are when sentiment is based on irrationality. Say when people are 100% bullish because they think the stockmarket is going to double this year because it has doubled in each of the last two years.

But consider this when you want to be inherently bearish still. First of all what conceptually is perhaps the worst possible investment you could make. How about fiat currency, driven by a banker inherent on devaluing it, yielding nothing and parked in a bank that might go bust. Think also of an investor who hates equities and yet just bought one, whose natural inclination is to not like gold because it has no 'guaranteed stream of income'. It is possibly a picture of an investor who looks in the mirror in the morning and wonders how the investment world is so unattractive that he is 70% cash and has a bought a gold equity. Now there isnt much evidence this guy is inherently stupid but the interesting question is whether he enjoys his coffee in the mornings and my guess is that he does.

[midas]

Is someone able to comment whether my understanding is correct or incorrect on this issue :-

Is it the case that when the Bulls eventually become Bearish this is good for the stock market ? I have never been sure of the thinking behind this. Is that because everyone is selling into the rally which sends the index up or is it for another reason that it is still considered to be positive for the stock market ?

I ask this because of article I read today :-

Uber Bull Barton Biggs Throws In The Towel, Slashes Stock Holdings

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-bull-barton-biggs-throws-in-the-towel-slashes-stock-holdings-2010-7#ixzz0sjPvUIVs

The answer is essentially yes and the logic incontrovertible. Imagine a stockmarket where 100% of people are bullish (that includes you Midas). By definition that means everyone is maximum invested in the stockmarket (not that everyone has put all their assets in the market, they are 'maximum' invested.) Then if 'one' person turns bearish there is no buyer for his stock unless the price falls.

Still that is rational thought. The greatest signals are when sentiment is based on irrationality. Say when people are 100% bullish because they think the stockmarket is going to double this year because it has doubled in each of the last two years.

But consider this when you want to be inherently bearish still. First of all what conceptually is perhaps the worst possible investment you could make. How about fiat currency, driven by a banker inherent on devaluing it, yielding nothing and parked in a bank that might go bust. Think also of an investor who hates equities and yet just bought one, whose natural inclination is to not like gold because it has no 'guaranteed stream of income'. It is possibly a picture of an investor who looks in the mirror in the morning and wonders how the investment world is so unattractive that he is 70% cash and has a bought a gold equity. Now there isnt much evidence this guy is inherently stupid but the interesting question is whether he enjoys his coffee in the mornings and my guess is that he does.

thank you very much Abrak :jap:

[Abrak]

thank you very much Abrak :jap:

It is a very key point. Chartists certainly use it a lot. I remember Lanna saying he looks for extremes of sentiment. I have no idea where he finds them but I can guarantee he is selling on too much bullishness not buying.

Actually I find you quite a good sentiment indicator. You are very consistently always bearish. And say Zorro is consistently bullish. Now theoretically as the market went up 60%, you should be able to make more convincing arguments that it is overpriced and Zorro should be less bullish. But my guess is that if you go back to the top of the market, you will find Zorro saying 'I am the stockmarket master of the human race, Midas you are a total loser get off this thread.' In fact I seem to remember in 3 posts he claimed to be a technical master of stocks, a fundamental master of stocks and a timing master of stocks. Which would in fact have made in God which seems pretty unlikely. And you had to an extent 'thrown in the towel' by claiming that the market is 'manipulated by crooks and martians, smells of bad vegetables and fish, PPTs, GS, the Fed etc.' Unfortunately, I was hoping that you would totally give up in posting in the thread, then that really would have indicated a top of the market!!

BTW I dont consider the fact that Zorro has stopped posting as an indicator the market has bottomed. Midas is a better sentiment indicator because he doesnt own any stocks. While I am sure Zorro will be back when he can claim that he bought at the lows and sold at the highs.

Edited July 4, 2010 by Abrak

[midas]

thank you very much Abrak :jap:

It is a very key point. Chartists certainly use it a lot. I remember Lanna saying he looks for extremes of sentiment. I have no idea where he finds them but I can guarantee he is selling on too much bullishness not buying.

Actually I find you quite a good sentiment indicator. You are very consistently always bearish. And say Zorro is consistently bullish. Now theoretically as the market went up 60%, you should be able to make more convincing arguments that it is overpriced and Zorro should be less bullish. But my guess is that if you go back to the top of the market, you will find Zorro saying 'I am the stockmarket master of the human race, Midas you are a total loser get off this thread.' And you had to an extent 'thrown in the towel' by claiming that the market is 'manipulated by crooks and martians, smells of bad vegetables and fish, PPTs, GS, the Fed etc.' Unfortunately, I was hoping that you would totally give up in posting in the thread, then that really would have indicated a top of the market!!

ha ha ha ! Yes you are correct !

But the reason i could never switch over was because of my firm personal belief that

too many important issues had been swept under the carpet. How could the

whole financial system have been on the verge of a total meltdown in October

2008 and the next thing without them having addressed those very issues the

stockmarket was racing upwards. And when they started manipulating the rules

regarding valuation of assets i definately could smell a rat or " bad vegetables and fish "

or whatever

Look even the fact that CNBC , Bloomberg etc were emphasising the " green shoots " so

much made me even more cynical and to me anyway it just seemed that TPTB

realised the best way to keep the sheeple content was for the stock market to

look like it was good !

[zorro1]

thank you very much Abrak :jap:

It is a very key point. Chartists certainly use it a lot. I remember Lanna saying he looks for extremes of sentiment. I have no idea where he finds them but I can guarantee he is selling on too much bullishness not buying.

Actually I find you quite a good sentiment indicator. You are very consistently always bearish. And say Zorro is consistently bullish. Now theoretically as the market went up 60%, you should be able to make more convincing arguments that it is overpriced and Zorro should be less bullish. But my guess is that if you go back to the top of the market, you will find Zorro saying 'I am the stockmarket master of the human race, Midas you are a total loser get off this thread.' In fact I seem to remember in 3 posts he claimed to be a technical master of stocks, a fundamental master of stocks and a timing master of stocks. Which would in fact have made in God which seems pretty unlikely. And you had to an extent 'thrown in the towel' by claiming that the market is 'manipulated by crooks and martians, smells of bad vegetables and fish, PPTs, GS, the Fed etc.' Unfortunately, I was hoping that you would totally give up in posting in the thread, then that really would have indicated a top of the market!!

BTW I dont consider the fact that Zorro has stopped posting as an indicator the market has bottomed. Midas is a better sentiment indicator because he doesnt own any stocks. While I am sure Zorro will be back when he can claim that he bought at the lows and sold at the highs.

Hi Abrak I dont post much as Im mainly on hot copper where stocks are discussed where here its more that state of the economy discussed.My last few posts state that 10400 was my next exit posted at 10,000. My next post was 10400 would be a good short position. My posts are there for all to see. Dont know why you would say Im bullish? I have never picked the bottom or tops and my gut said short at around 11,000 but I didnt. No matter, I rode the rally so plenty of profit still it could have been a better result . This guy has guided me and I post his charts here and the last was a short and now 9800 is gone we are going down. Im just siting on the sides waiting for scab day trades.

The Dow broke through support at 9800 to signal a primary down-trend. The S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and FTSE 100 all give similar signals, confirming a bear market.

[midas]

thank you very much Abrak :jap:

It is a very key point. Chartists certainly use it a lot. I remember Lanna saying he looks for extremes of sentiment. I have no idea where he finds them but I can guarantee he is selling on too much bullishness not buying.

Actually I find you quite a good sentiment indicator. You are very consistently always bearish. And say Zorro is consistently bullish. Now theoretically as the market went up 60%, you should be able to make more convincing arguments that it is overpriced and Zorro should be less bullish. But my guess is that if you go back to the top of the market, you will find Zorro saying 'I am the stockmarket master of the human race, Midas you are a total loser get off this thread.' In fact I seem to remember in 3 posts he claimed to be a technical master of stocks, a fundamental master of stocks and a timing master of stocks. Which would in fact have made in God which seems pretty unlikely. And you had to an extent 'thrown in the towel' by claiming that the market is 'manipulated by crooks and martians, smells of bad vegetables and fish, PPTs, GS, the Fed etc.' Unfortunately, I was hoping that you would totally give up in posting in the thread, then that really would have indicated a top of the market!!

BTW I dont consider the fact that Zorro has stopped posting as an indicator the market has bottomed. Midas is a better sentiment indicator because he doesnt own any stocks. While I am sure Zorro will be back when he can claim that he bought at the lows and sold at the highs.

Hi Abrak I dont post much as Im mainly on hot copper where stocks are discussed where here its more that state of the economy discussed.My last few posts state that 10400 was my next exit posted at 10,000. My next post was 10400 would be a good short position. My posts are there for all to see. Dont know why you would say Im bullish? I have never picked the bottom or tops and my gut said short at around 11,000 but I didnt. No matter, I rode the rally so plenty of profit still it could have been a better result . This guy has guided me and I post his charts here and the last was a short and now 9800 is gone we are going down. Im just siting on the sides waiting for scab day trades.

The Dow broke through support at 9800 to signal a primary down-trend. The S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and FTSE 100 all give similar signals, confirming a bear market.

oh thanks very much zorro !

There you were not so long ago saying to me " why dont you buy some stocks Midas ? "

" there is no reason it wont go to 11,500 or even 13,000 " and now you are saying you never

believed this yourself even though you were encouraging me to get involved ?

Well anyway it doesnt matter because its pretty clear from reading the different resources

I regularly follow that many retail investors have lost total trust in stocks after what has happened and they wont

be back for a long time.

[zorro1]

Oh thanks very Much to you to, encouraging me to sell at 8000 on the way up

Only one of us has made any money in the last 12 months . At the time there was no reason for the dow not to hit 11500. I wasnt that far off hey?

A LOT CLOSER than your sell at 8000

[lannarebirth]

I don't look at quarterly charts much, but I think that's a quarterly key reversal I spy. Maybe things work different out in that time frame. I don't know.

[midas]

Oh thanks very Much to you to, encouraging me to sell at 8000 on the way up

Only one of us has made any money in the last 12 months . At the time there was no reason for the dow not to hit 11500. I wasnt that far off hey?

A LOT CLOSER than your sell at 8000

the big difference is though zorro I genuniely believed in what i was telling

you wheras you were simply shooting from the hip - you didnt believe what you were telling

me to do ? What you tried to enourage me to do was a perfect example

of the " Greater Fool Theory " that Abrak described long ago.

As I said before many times i really dont care that i made no money because i dont need

to make money that way. I said it at the time and i say it now it

was pure gambling. If i wanted to do that kind of thing just like Naam said in

the other thread I would rather fly to Macau for a week.

I get far more satisfaction knowing I followed my own heart knowing all the time

it was a pack of cards with an underlying financial system and government which is rotten to the core.

Edited July 4, 2010 by midas

[zorro1]

Oh thanks very Much to you to, encouraging me to sell at 8000 on the way up

Only one of us has made any money in the last 12 months . At the time there was no reason for the dow not to hit 11500. I wasnt that far off hey?

A LOT CLOSER than your sell at 8000

the big difference is though zorro I genuniely believed in what i was telling

you wheras you were simply shooting from the hip - you didnt believe what you were telling

me to do ? What you tried to enourage me to do was a perfect example

of the " Greater Fool Theory " that Abrak described long ago.

As I said before many times i really dont care that i made no money because i dont need

to make money that way. I said it at the time and i say it now it

was pure gambling. If i wanted to do that kind of thing just like Naam said in

the other thread I would rather fly to Macau for a week.

I get far more satisfaction knowing I followed my own heart knowing all the time

it was a pack of cards with an underlying financial system and government which is rotten to the core.

Your missing the point. All traders here ,Abrak ,lanna etc are purely here for greed. This isnt a charty where we feel sorry for bears / bulls and sell or buy few in support Its dog eat dog. You dont belong here :jap:

[nakachalet]

sorry. was trying to upload a dog eats dog video.... but was unsuccessful. anyone knows how....? :jap:

Edited July 4, 2010 by nakachalet

[Naam]

I expect it will fill at some point in the next Chinese bull market or echo bubble. That one you show is particularly nasty as it gapped out of a triangle that I imagine many traders expected would break higher and it gapped out lower like it fell through a trapdoor, signifying a continuation triangle. That triangle targets 2100ish BTW, FWIW and OCICBW..

Notice BTW where the initial leg down of that triangle bottomed. It bottomed after filling the gap left the previous May.

does anybody know LRB's nationality or what planet he hails from? his language indicates that he is not from this solar system, he seems to be an immigrant from a faraway quadrant.

[midas]

Oh thanks very Much to you to, encouraging me to sell at 8000 on the way up

Only one of us has made any money in the last 12 months . At the time there was no reason for the dow not to hit 11500. I wasnt that far off hey?

A LOT CLOSER than your sell at 8000

the big difference is though zorro I genuniely believed in what i was telling

you wheras you were simply shooting from the hip - you didnt believe what you were telling

me to do ? What you tried to enourage me to do was a perfect example

of the " Greater Fool Theory " that Abrak described long ago.

As I said before many times i really dont care that i made no money because i dont need

to make money that way. I said it at the time and i say it now it

was pure gambling. If i wanted to do that kind of thing just like Naam said in

the other thread I would rather fly to Macau for a week.

I get far more satisfaction knowing I followed my own heart knowing all the time

it was a pack of cards with an underlying financial system and government which is rotten to the core.

Your missing the point. All traders here ,Abrak ,lanna etc are purely here for greed. This isnt a charty where we feel sorry for bears / bulls and sell or buy few in support Its dog eat dog. You dont belong here :jap:

no YOU are missing the point !

Of course its not a charity but that is very different to trying to

lure someone to buy something while you yourself dont believe the same.

Exactly what Goldman Sucks were doing and that is why the average Joe

will not trust the stockmarket again for a long time. Good work - nicely done

You most definately portrayed yourself in this thread as a friendly trader wanting to share

information and you kept complaining that others didnt do the same.

If you and others like you have become that greedy that you are have to

misrepresent yourself to make money then I dont want anything to do with

this kind of activity. Maybe I would have count my

fingers afterwards if ever i shake your hand. Where does it end - what else would you do

to satisfy your greed ?

Edited July 5, 2010 by midas

[lannarebirth]

I expect it will fill at some point in the next Chinese bull market or echo bubble. That one you show is particularly nasty as it gapped out of a triangle that I imagine many traders expected would break higher and it gapped out lower like it fell through a trapdoor, signifying a continuation triangle. That triangle targets 2100ish BTW, FWIW and OCICBW..

Notice BTW where the initial leg down of that triangle bottomed. It bottomed after filling the gap left the previous May.

does anybody know LRB's nationality or what planet he hails from? his language indicates that he is not from this solar system, he seems to be an immigrant from a faraway quadrant.

Sister Mary Augustine who was my 4th grade teacher lifted me off the floor by my tie once and asked me a similar question . That was just for dawdling, not even peddling my own particular version of bullshit econobabble.

"gapped out of a triangle" = price jumped over rather than traded through the boundary of a contracting Isosceles triangle.

"signifying a continuation triangle" = The majority of symmetrical triangles (created by lines around price boundaries) are resolcved in the direction of the primary trend.

BTW = By the way

FWIW = For what it's worth

OCICBW = Of course I coude be wrong

and coming soon

BWTHDIK = But what the hel_l do I know?

[BlackJack]

everyones portfolio should include a weekly lotto ticket

Edited July 5, 2010 by BlackJack

[Parvis]

I find it interesting that just BEFORE I expect a substantial upmove - everybody - who posted - appears to be so bearish.

(But exact bottom not made yet).

Confucious say:

"Best bottoms are made when traditional chartists magic support-lines are broken".

Edited July 5, 2010 by Parvis

[zorro1]

Oh thanks very Much to you to, encouraging me to sell at 8000 on the way up

Only one of us has made any money in the last 12 months . At the time there was no reason for the dow not to hit 11500. I wasnt that far off hey?

A LOT CLOSER than your sell at 8000

the big difference is though zorro I genuniely believed in what i was telling

you wheras you were simply shooting from the hip - you didnt believe what you were telling

me to do ? What you tried to enourage me to do was a perfect example

of the " Greater Fool Theory " that Abrak described long ago.

As I said before many times i really dont care that i made no money because i dont need

to make money that way. I said it at the time and i say it now it

was pure gambling. If i wanted to do that kind of thing just like Naam said in

the other thread I would rather fly to Macau for a week.

I get far more satisfaction knowing I followed my own heart knowing all the time

it was a pack of cards with an underlying financial system and government which is rotten to the core.

Your missing the point. All traders here ,Abrak ,lanna etc are purely here for greed. This isnt a charty where we feel sorry for bears / bulls and sell or buy few in support Its dog eat dog. You dont belong here :jap:

no YOU are missing the point !

Of course its not a charity but that is very different to trying to

lure someone to buy something while you yourself dont believe the same.

Exactly what Goldman Sucks were doing and that is why the average Joe

will not trust the stockmarket again for a long time. Good work - nicely done

You most definately portrayed yourself in this thread as a friendly trader wanting to share

information and you kept complaining that others didnt do the same.

If you and others like you have become that greedy that you are have to

misrepresent yourself to make money then I dont want anything to do with

this kind of activity. Maybe I would have count my

fingers afterwards if ever i shake your hand. Where does it end - what else would you do

to satisfy your greed ?

Midas Give me one more chance. Okay so I slipped a few out while talking it up, I couldn't help it but I have changed now honest and everyone should sell their holdings on open tomorrow, I will sell what little I have left to , honest to god

[midas]

Midas Give me one more chance. Okay so I slipped a few out while talking it up, I couldn't help it but I have changed now honest and everyone should sell their holdings on open tomorrow, I will sell what little I have left to , honest to god

you are Australia's Arthur Daley

[lannarebirth]

Just like I pictured you zorro. Nice shoes.

[zorro1]

Thanks Lana thats the nicest thing anyone said to me all my life. We seem to have a lot in common and I could do with a friend. I was always said the shoes is most important part. $100 suit and $200 shoes, 1000bht rolex. From there anything is possible..

Edited July 5, 2010 by zorro1

[badge]

I find it interesting that just BEFORE I expect a substantial upmove - everybody - who posted - appears to be so bearish.

(But exact bottom not made yet).

Confucious say:

"Best bottoms are made when traditional chartists magic support-lines are broken".

So if I have deciphered Parvis' latest riddle correctly, it seems to propose that stocks will go up soon, but they will go down more first, with a notable absence of any parameters either way.

Thanks for that.

In fairness I covered my FTSE short from 5330 a few days ago at 4800 as my system flashed a buy signal at 4790 cash - the low, to the point.

I should therefore really be long, with a view to stop/reverse below 4790, ultimately seeking 4755, 4675 or 4515 on cash. However, I feel more inclined to simply reinstate a short, as opposed to reverse back to long.

[sokal]

I find it interesting that just BEFORE I expect a substantial upmove - everybody - who posted - appears to be so bearish.

(But exact bottom not made yet).

Confucious say:

"Best bottoms are made when traditional chartists magic support-lines are broken".

So if I have deciphered Parvis' latest riddle correctly, it seems to propose that stocks will go up soon, but they will go down more first, with a notable absence of any parameters either way.

Thanks for that.

In fairness I covered my FTSE short from 5330 a few days ago at 4800 as my system flashed a buy signal at 4790 cash - the low, to the point.

I should therefore really be long, with a view to stop/reverse below 4790, ultimately seeking 4755, 4675 or 4515 on cash. However, I feel more inclined to simply reinstate a short, as opposed to reverse back to long.

check out this manipulation, does pervis have a way of factoring it in ?

[midas]

I find it interesting that just BEFORE I expect a substantial upmove - everybody - who posted - appears to be so bearish.

(But exact bottom not made yet).

Confucious say:

"Best bottoms are made when traditional chartists magic support-lines are broken".

So if I have deciphered Parvis' latest riddle correctly, it seems to propose that stocks will go up soon, but they will go down more first, with a notable absence of any parameters either way.

Thanks for that.

In fairness I covered my FTSE short from 5330 a few days ago at 4800 as my system flashed a buy signal at 4790 cash - the low, to the point.

I should therefore really be long, with a view to stop/reverse below 4790, ultimately seeking 4755, 4675 or 4515 on cash. However, I feel more inclined to simply reinstate a short, as opposed to reverse back to long.

check out this manipulation, does pervis have a way of factoring it in ?

Badge doesnt think there is any manipulation in the stock market