The Stock Market

[midas]

Why I argue with you Midas I dont know when you argue against yourself. You make 5 posts about the herd selling and then a sixth about the herd being stupid.

When the herd starts to panic let us know.

Loss of faith is great. I have always wondered what you put faith in. But I suspect it is obvious 'faith'.

[midas]

chart showing how long a secular bear market can last

[Abrak]

chart showing how long a secular bear market can last

Midas why not explain what a P/E is? And then move onto a yield? Or perhaps a reverse head and shoulders?

[midas]

chart showing how long a secular bear market can last

Midas why not explain what a P/E is? And then move onto a yield? Or perhaps a reverse head and shoulders?

These are such basic questions and I read them even in the first section of

" Stockmarket Investing for Dummies " from dummies.com

Now i am into the section of " how to create and market a Ponzi scheme "

Edited August 16, 2010 by midas

[Abrak]

chart showing how long a secular bear market can last

Midas why not explain what a P/E is? And then move onto a yield? Or perhaps a reverse head and shoulders?

These are such basic questions and I read them even in the first section of

" Stockmarket Investing for Dummies " from dummies.com

Now i am into the section of " how to create and market a Ponzi scheme "

Honestly Midas do you really believe there was anyone on this thread that didnt know the length of secular bear markets in the 20th century other than you. And even you should have known given that it was mentioned on the previous page and I explained why secular bear markets were so 'short' in the US compared to say Thailand and Japan. Anyway I am clearly wasting my time as you dont even read my posts while I am at least saying you can learn something by reading other peoples. You have to admit that if you choose to post a chart showing the S&P over the last 100 years and point out where the secular bear markets are you really have to assume a level of stupidity by posters that they shouldnt invest in stocks in the first place. I have always maintained that you have a level of intelligence that understands why you dont invest in stocks. It is simply totally unacceptable in a stock market thread to post a chart of the bloody stockmarket and claim that you are informing anyone of anything they didnt already know.

[midas]

chart showing how long a secular bear market can last

Midas why not explain what a P/E is? And then move onto a yield? Or perhaps a reverse head and shoulders?

These are such basic questions and I read them even in the first section of

" Stockmarket Investing for Dummies " from dummies.com

Now i am into the section of " how to create and market a Ponzi scheme "

Honestly Midas do you really believe there was anyone on this thread that didnt know the length of secular bear markets in the 20th century other than you. And even you should have known given that it was mentioned on the previous page and I explained why secular bear markets were so 'short' in the US compared to say Thailand and Japan. Anyway I am clearly wasting my time as you dont even read my posts while I am at least saying you can learn something by reading other peoples. You have to admit that if you choose to post a chart showing the S&P over the last 100 years and point out where the secular bear markets are you really have to assume a level of stupidity by posters that they shouldnt invest in stocks in the first place. I have always maintained that you have a level of intelligence that understands why you dont invest in stocks. It is simply totally unacceptable in a stock market thread to post a chart of the bloody stockmarket and claim that you are informing anyone of anything they didnt already know.

Abrak there is no need to lose your cool

And i think it is a bit presumptuous of you to assume that everyone ( i.e.

including many guests who may not know as much as you do ) would appreciate this information

Anyway you have told me so many times now how stupid I am that i have come to rely on looking at the pictures.

Edited August 16, 2010 by midas

[Abrak]

And i think it is a bit presumptuous of you to assume that everyone ( i.e.

including many guests who may not know as much as you do ) would appreciate this information

Look Midas I know you are just trying to wind me up.

There are 103 pages written on the stock market. And if after 103 pages on the stock market, if someone actually appreciates a chart of the stock market then it would rather imply they have accidentally landed on the wrong thread. Although we are hardly discussing ground breaking stuff here, we should at least pretend to be sentient.

[Abrak]

Anyway if noone knows how to trade profitably it is clearly explained here.....

Rather amazingly at the top, it says 'filed under education'

But before a gem of fundamental analysis 'if you take Apple's US$15 EPS and multiply by its growth rate of 70% it is worth US$1050/per share.'

Anyways back to education.....

Imagine for a second that the stock market is like a bandwagon.

There is music playing and everyone on board seems to be having a great time. There are cheers, laughter and fun had by all on board.

As the bandwagon rolls down the street onlookers start to jump on. A few early passengers start to get off, partied out and happy, which makes more room for new people looking to get into the fun. The bandwagon charges forward.

More and more people are lured by the great time everyone on board is having and clamor to get on board. With all the new people on board the bandwagon is having a tough time keeping up its speed. The bandwagon begins to slow.

More partiers jump on board, everyone wants to participate in this great time. Everyone wants a turn. Finally so many people are on the bandwagon that it comes to a stop.

This makes it very easy for the last big rush of onlookers to jump on the wagon looking for that great ride.

Now the bandwagon is not used to being so heavy it can not move. It must figure out how to get back to its natural state of moving forward. It must shake itself of this heavy load of party goers.

The bandwagon shifts into reverse and jolts backwards knocking a few people off. The cheering stops. Again, another move backwards. More people fall off. People are confused. Where is the music? Where are my free drinks? Before anyone has a chance to figure it out the bandwagon, lurches backwards again. Now there is a full out panic and everyone jumps or gets knocked off.

The bandwagon is now standing still and getting ready to move forward again.

At this point, the first group that got off, knowing that they got the party started the first time all jump on board. This group of party goers understands that the bandwagon moves best when it is not burdened with the large crowd. The music gets cranked up again and they are laughing and having a great time. The Bandwagon is rolling again.

Soon, those that got thrown off in the panic ,are noticing what a great time everyone is having as the bandwagon rolls by. They start chasing the bandwagon down the street begging to get on board. Once again, this never ending cycle begins.

So what is the point of this story? The Pro Trader will wait for the right time to jump on the bandwagon. The pro trader wants to be on board early to take part in the fun. We want to be on board ahead of the newbies that will flock to the party driving forward for a short time. The Pro trader then takes his profits, gets off and waits for the cycle to begin again.

[midas]

Nope. Far, far too tenuous to be considered anymore significant than one of Zorros Colin Twiggs' graphs.

Do yourself a favor and forget about the Hindenburg Omen, its useless.

badge, I would actually like to throw this one back at you

I know many people don’t like Glenn Beck and if you are one of those who don't

just try to listen to the message here rather than who the messenger is

He had a different perspective about The Hindenburg Omen on his TV show this morning.

He is saying maybe you could ignore things like the The Hindenburg Omen on their own

in the past – but maybe not so much as a component of the “ Perfect Storm “ ?

You can see and listen to his perspective of the “ Perfect Storm “ here :-

http://video.foxnews.com/v/4312463/beck-the-hindenburg-omen

[BlackJack]

chart showing how long a secular bear market can last

Midas why not explain what a P/E is? And then move onto a yield? Or perhaps a reverse head and shoulders?

or a reverse pike triple toe hold

[midas]

He does have a mind of his own and is prone to refering to everyone as 'sheeple'. But his views are simply that.

Hang on......... not only me !

http://www.theamericansheeple.com/index.html

[zorro1]

Anyway if noone knows how to trade profitably it is clearly explained here.....

Rather amazingly at the top, it says 'filed under education'

But before a gem of fundamental analysis 'if you take Apple's US$15 EPS and multiply by its growth rate of 70% it is worth US$1050/per share.'

Anyways back to education.....

Imagine for a second that the stock market is like a bandwagon.

There is music playing and everyone on board seems to be having a great time. There are cheers, laughter and fun had by all on board.

As the bandwagon rolls down the street onlookers start to jump on. A few early passengers start to get off, partied out and happy, which makes more room for new people looking to get into the fun. The bandwagon charges forward.

More and more people are lured by the great time everyone on board is having and clamor to get on board. With all the new people on board the bandwagon is having a tough time keeping up its speed. The bandwagon begins to slow.

More partiers jump on board, everyone wants to participate in this great time. Everyone wants a turn. Finally so many people are on the bandwagon that it comes to a stop.

This makes it very easy for the last big rush of onlookers to jump on the wagon looking for that great ride.

Now the bandwagon is not used to being so heavy it can not move. It must figure out how to get back to its natural state of moving forward. It must shake itself of this heavy load of party goers.

The bandwagon shifts into reverse and jolts backwards knocking a few people off. The cheering stops. Again, another move backwards. More people fall off. People are confused. Where is the music? Where are my free drinks? Before anyone has a chance to figure it out the bandwagon, lurches backwards again. Now there is a full out panic and everyone jumps or gets knocked off.

The bandwagon is now standing still and getting ready to move forward again.

At this point, the first group that got off, knowing that they got the party started the first time all jump on board. This group of party goers understands that the bandwagon moves best when it is not burdened with the large crowd. The music gets cranked up again and they are laughing and having a great time. The Bandwagon is rolling again.

Soon, those that got thrown off in the panic ,are noticing what a great time everyone is having as the bandwagon rolls by. They start chasing the bandwagon down the street begging to get on board. Once again, this never ending cycle begins.

So what is the point of this story? The Pro Trader will wait for the right time to jump on the bandwagon. The pro trader wants to be on board early to take part in the fun. We want to be on board ahead of the newbies that will flock to the party driving forward for a short time. The Pro trader then takes his profits, gets off and waits for the cycle to begin again.

a must see explains what abrak is saying. anatomy of a pump and dump. very funny actually but sadly true. we have all got caught at some stage

[Abrak]

You can see and listen to his perspective of the “ Perfect Storm “ here :-

http://video.foxnews.com/v/4312463/beck-the-hindenburg-omen

OK Midas, I have to hand it to you, that video is brilliant. Unfortunately I think people might give up part of the way through while it is the last two minutes which make it a classic.

For instance, the unemployment joke 'there are lots of unemployed...why dont they go out and get a job....boom boom' is so old, boring and tasteless, that you have to wait until the end to sort of get it.

And you Tech guys can learn how important a great 'catchy name' is to getting attention. 'Hiddenburg' 'Omen' at least six video clips of the 'Hiddenburg' going down in flames and even a still from the 'Omen' with that kid looking suitably evil.

I wonder why we dont get Foxnews in Thailand on Truevisions. Afterall we have the Panda channel.

[Abrak]

a must see explains what abrak is saying. anatomy of a pump and dump. very funny actually but sadly true. we have all got caught at some stage

Well spotted Zorro I did take that 'strategy' of a penny stock site, I didnt really have much idea about what it was saying but the word 'newbie' did stick out.

As you know I am fairly disparaging about penny stocks as investments because (1) they perform on average incredibly badly (2) they have little value in general (3) are small, illiquid and irrelevent in the greater scheme of things (4) they are subject to manipulation. If you notice in your video, the final big move up in your stock is caused by a 'press release.'

However, I do understand your investment logic for trading in them. They attract the dumbest, newbie, gambler (who is particularly attracted to the fact that a 1 cent stock might go to 2 cents because it is so cheap), you dont have to compete much against professionals who size means they cant be part of the market. And the inherent volatility provides opportunity so long as you are disciplined.

[zorro1]

a must see explains what abrak is saying. anatomy of a pump and dump. very funny actually but sadly true. we have all got caught at some stage

Well spotted Zorro I did take that 'strategy' of a penny stock site, I didnt really have much idea about what it was saying but the word 'newbie' did stick out.

As you know I am fairly disparaging about penny stocks as investments because (1) they perform on average incredibly badly (2) they have little value in general (3) are small, illiquid and irrelevent in the greater scheme of things (4) they are subject to manipulation. If you notice in your video, the final big move up in your stock is caused by a 'press release.'

However, I do understand your investment logic for trading in them. They attract the dumbest, newbie, gambler (who is particularly attracted to the fact that a 1 cent stock might go to 2 cents because it is so cheap), you dont have to compete much against professionals who size means they cant be part of the market. And the inherent volatility provides opportunity so long as you are disciplined.

Abrak he actually says it applies to all stock even blue chip. The theory is the same though by low and sell high, however yes more so with penny stock For some reason when a penny is sliding its automatically a dead duck, however 2 days later when its jumps 200% on a rumour its suddenly a winner? the next bhp, going from 8c to a buck toot toot..

"They attract the dumbest, newbie, gambler (who is particularly attracted to the fact that a 1 cent stock might go to 2 cents because it is so cheap)"

yep that was me in the video first 2 months of trading. Buy high sell low. that was expensive fun back then. Things have changed though

[badge]

Nope. Far, far too tenuous to be considered anymore significant than one of Zorros Colin Twiggs' graphs.

Do yourself a favor and forget about the Hindenburg Omen, its useless.

badge, I would actually like to throw this one back at you

I know many people don't like Glenn Beck and if you are one of those who don't

just try to listen to the message here rather than who the messenger is

He had a different perspective about The Hindenburg Omen on his TV show this morning.

He is saying maybe you could ignore things like the The Hindenburg Omen on their own

in the past – but maybe not so much as a component of the " Perfect Storm " ?

You can see and listen to his perspective of the " Perfect Storm " here :-

http://video.foxnews...hindenburg-omen

We have different goals.

My goal is to make money from the stock market, and the Hindenburg Omen and any other 'Perfect Storm' conjecture is of zero aid in doing so, in my experience I should add.

I have my own ways of doing things and like to trade the significant(5%+) twists and turns, both up and down. Throughout 2008 it was easy to catch stocks declining, but I did well going long too. Even if something similar repeated this year or next, Id still find myself long at times Im sure.

Step away from the Hindenburg.

[badge]

Nope. Far, far too tenuous to be considered anymore significant than one of Zorros Colin Twiggs' graphs.

Do yourself a favor and forget about the Hindenburg Omen, its useless.

badge, I would actually like to throw this one back at you

I know many people don't like Glenn Beck and if you are one of those who don't

just try to listen to the message here rather than who the messenger is

He had a different perspective about The Hindenburg Omen on his TV show this morning.

He is saying maybe you could ignore things like the The Hindenburg Omen on their own

in the past – but maybe not so much as a component of the " Perfect Storm " ?

You can see and listen to his perspective of the " Perfect Storm " here :-

http://video.foxnews...hindenburg-omen

We have different goals.

My goal is to make money from the stock market, and the Hindenburg Omen and any other 'Perfect Storm' conjecture is of zero aid in doing so, in my experience I should add.

I have my own ways of doing things and like to trade the significant(5%+) twists and turns, both up and down. Throughout 2008 it was easy to catch stocks declining, but I did well going long too. Even if something similar repeated this year or next, Id still find myself long at times Im sure.

Step away from the Hindenburg.

I didnt bother watching the link as I already know what the general gist will be, however after seeing Abrak say the last 2 minutes were the best I thought Id give it 2 minutes... gosh Have you seen the TV program 'The Office'? Its a docu-comedy, its supposed to show a the cringeworthy side of office politics, and I think I cringed more during that 2 minutes of Mr Becks performance than an entire series of The Office

[Abrak]

Nope. Far, far too tenuous to be considered anymore significant than one of Zorros Colin Twiggs' graphs.

Do yourself a favor and forget about the Hindenburg Omen, its useless.

badge, I would actually like to throw this one back at you

I know many people don't like Glenn Beck and if you are one of those who don't

just try to listen to the message here rather than who the messenger is

He had a different perspective about The Hindenburg Omen on his TV show this morning.

He is saying maybe you could ignore things like the The Hindenburg Omen on their own

in the past – but maybe not so much as a component of the " Perfect Storm " ?

You can see and listen to his perspective of the " Perfect Storm " here :-

http://video.foxnews...hindenburg-omen

We have different goals.

My goal is to make money from the stock market, and the Hindenburg Omen and any other 'Perfect Storm' conjecture is of zero aid in doing so, in my experience I should add.

I have my own ways of doing things and like to trade the significant(5%+) twists and turns, both up and down. Throughout 2008 it was easy to catch stocks declining, but I did well going long too. Even if something similar repeated this year or next, Id still find myself long at times Im sure.

Step away from the Hindenburg.

I didnt bother watching the link as I already know what the general gist will be, however after seeing Abrak say the last 2 minutes were the best I thought Id give it 2 minutes... gosh Have you seen the TV program 'The Office'? Its a docu-comedy, its supposed to show a the cringeworthy side of office politics, and I think I cringed more during that 2 minutes of Mr Becks performance than an entire series of The Office

Yeah Badge love it. But I really hope you have seen the original English version with Ricky Gervais. It is 10x better than the US version that can be a bit lame. And you are right, the last two minutes reminded me of the moment the manager pulls out his guitar and starts singing a song to build moral amongst his staff.

And that final line. With a totally straight face, Glenn Beck says 'Just call Him.'

[badge]

Indeed.

On The Office, I think the British version is harder to watch as its so terribly cringeworthy, but I thought the US version was amusing too, in its own right.

Just out of interest, can anyone(Abrak?) provide me with a graph of the SET Index, daily or weekly with candles or OHLC, for as far back as they have data? Or, at least from the all time high. If you could make it as large as poss. pixel-wise that'd be great. Cheers.

[Abrak]

Just out of interest, can anyone(Abrak?) provide me with a graph of the SET Index, daily or weekly with candles or OHLC, for as far back as they have data? Or, at least from the all time high. If you could make it as large as poss. pixel-wise that'd be great. Cheers.

I love the way you say 'at least until all time high'. That was on January 6th 1994 at 1786 (intraday). So even a weekly chart would have nearly 850 data points. My chart system from my broker wont help as it is daily with 2500 back days maximum. It does have candlesticks but I have no idea what OHLC is!! (OK I assume it is open hi lo close.)

[lannarebirth]

Indeed.

On The Office, I think the British version is harder to watch as its so terribly cringeworthy, but I thought the US version was amusing too, in its own right.

Just out of interest, can anyone(Abrak?) provide me with a graph of the SET Index, daily or weekly with candles or OHLC, for as far back as they have data? Or, at least from the all time high. If you could make it as large as poss. pixel-wise that'd be great. Cheers.

Stockcharts had some bad ticks in their $SETI chart and when I wrote to them, rather than correct them they abbreviated the data. So, that's what I've got:

You can see more at goatfarmer's site:

http://www.asiachart.com/thai.html

[Abrak]

are we back on track

have they finished the pissing contest

yet

QE will start again

the more you print the less the dollars worth

when zimbabwa did it they were printing trillion dollar bills and the only thing that saved them was that there was an underground US dollar market - read that there was something of value in their market - US dollars have nothing - nothing of value to give it value - housing employment down taxes up - the only value is m____ - go on say it - metals and yellow ones and silver ones

china is buying more Japan bonds now than US bonds

India and China both getting increasing class of people that can buy gold, silver and surprise surprise diamonds

China encouraging its people to buy gold

what does this mean?

I 100% agree with you that QE is going to resume.

Gold is just a bit obvious for my liking - everyone seems to be buying it. But I can understand why. Tips are just priced at ridiculous levels.

The problem with QE this time around is that it is not a surprise and I dont think it will do much for the real economy. I am not sure that stocks will respond positively. He might succeed in tanking the dollar further though.

According to Shadowstats there will be a big revision to Q2 growth on August 27th due to very weak end June numbers. 2.4% will be revised down to between 1.4% and 1.8%. Tax hikes at the end of the year take out any growth that is left.

If anyone has a list of the worst performing assets/commodities over the last 20 years, I would love to see it.

[BlackJack]

a must see explains what abrak is saying. anatomy of a pump and dump. very funny actually but sadly true. we have all got caught at some stage

Well spotted Zorro I did take that 'strategy' of a penny stock site, I didnt really have much idea about what it was saying but the word 'newbie' did stick out.

As you know I am fairly disparaging about penny stocks as investments because (1) they perform on average incredibly badly (2) they have little value in general (3) are small, illiquid and irrelevent in the greater scheme of things (4) they are subject to manipulation. If you notice in your video, the final big move up in your stock is caused by a 'press release.'

However, I do understand your investment logic for trading in them. They attract the dumbest, newbie, gambler (who is particularly attracted to the fact that a 1 cent stock might go to 2 cents because it is so cheap), you dont have to compete much against professionals who size means they cant be part of the market. And the inherent volatility provides opportunity so long as you are disciplined.

Abrak he actually says it applies to all stock even blue chip. The theory is the same though by low and sell high, however yes more so with penny stock For some reason when a penny is sliding its automatically a dead duck, however 2 days later when its jumps 200% on a rumour its suddenly a winner? the next bhp, going from 8c to a buck toot toot..

"They attract the dumbest, newbie, gambler (who is particularly attracted to the fact that a 1 cent stock might go to 2 cents because it is so cheap)"

yep that was me in the video first 2 months of trading. Buy high sell low. that was expensive fun back then. Things have changed though

without prejudice

Pump and dump yes but a different take

hotcopper is an Australian forum on stocks and 2 posters were threatend with legal action by the CEO of the CDU company on and ASX - its a mining co for copper so in demand.

most posters were ramping the stock and 2 were less than enthusiastic about it as the assays of the drilling reports were not forthcoming (4 years behind) however the share price kept moving up as CDU bought the property next door and was said to have huge deposits.

When the JORC report was to come out (yesterday) CDU put the stock on trading halt - and also got their lawyers to challenge the 2 negative posters on the hotcopper forum.

Today the halt was lifted after the JORC report and the stock plunged nearly 50% (this was a 4.50 dollar stock too and so not a penny )

Me thinks another enquiry is coming as the CEO had previously been in hot water for over stating the reserves before.

So sometimes the co is ramping via some unknown name on the forums - however there were winners as they shorted the stocks - ramping and then shorting can make big bucks -

Advisors can only rely on the info given and so it looks like even the pros were duped.

I lost but made up on other risers and so its probably oversold now and time to load up

[AlexLah]

Told ya....

Example: http://www.google.com/finance?q=POT

[midas]

Nope. Far, far too tenuous to be considered anymore significant than one of Zorros Colin Twiggs' graphs.

Do yourself a favor and forget about the Hindenburg Omen, its useless.

badge, I would actually like to throw this one back at you

I know many people don't like Glenn Beck and if you are one of those who don't

just try to listen to the message here rather than who the messenger is

He had a different perspective about The Hindenburg Omen on his TV show this morning.

He is saying maybe you could ignore things like the The Hindenburg Omen on their own

in the past – but maybe not so much as a component of the " Perfect Storm " ?

You can see and listen to his perspective of the " Perfect Storm " here :-

http://video.foxnews...hindenburg-omen

We have different goals.

My goal is to make money from the stock market, and the Hindenburg Omen and any other 'Perfect Storm' conjecture is of zero aid in doing so, in my experience I should add.

I have my own ways of doing things and like to trade the significant(5%+) twists and turns, both up and down. Throughout 2008 it was easy to catch stocks declining, but I did well going long too. Even if something similar repeated this year or next, Id still find myself long at times Im sure.

Step away from the Hindenburg.

I didnt bother watching the link as I already know what the general gist will be, however after seeing Abrak say the last 2 minutes were the best I thought Id give it 2 minutes... gosh Have you seen the TV program 'The Office'? Its a docu-comedy, its supposed to show a the cringeworthy side of office politics, and I think I cringed more during that 2 minutes of Mr Becks performance than an entire series of The Office

Actually I agree with you but i also thought Beck must regard things as being pretty

bleak to be prepared to embarrass himself on international cable t.v.like that?

But guess what ?!!! The Greeks are doing the very same thing as Beck now

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,712511,00.html

Edited August 18, 2010 by midas

[badge]

Indeed.

On The Office, I think the British version is harder to watch as its so terribly cringeworthy, but I thought the US version was amusing too, in its own right.

Just out of interest, can anyone(Abrak?) provide me with a graph of the SET Index, daily or weekly with candles or OHLC, for as far back as they have data? Or, at least from the all time high. If you could make it as large as poss. pixel-wise that'd be great. Cheers.

Stockcharts had some bad ticks in their $SETI chart and when I wrote to them, rather than correct them they abbreviated the data. So, that's what I've got:

You can see more at goatfarmer's site:

http://www.asiachart.com/thai.html

Thanks Lanna What is goatfarmers site? The link doesnt appear to work for me?

[lannarebirth]

Indeed.

On The Office, I think the British version is harder to watch as its so terribly cringeworthy, but I thought the US version was amusing too, in its own right.

Just out of interest, can anyone(Abrak?) provide me with a graph of the SET Index, daily or weekly with candles or OHLC, for as far back as they have data? Or, at least from the all time high. If you could make it as large as poss. pixel-wise that'd be great. Cheers.

Stockcharts had some bad ticks in their $SETI chart and when I wrote to them, rather than correct them they abbreviated the data. So, that's what I've got:

You can see more at goatfarmer's site:

http://www.asiachart.com/thai.html

Thanks Lanna What is goatfarmers site? The link doesnt appear to work for me?

It would appear to be down right now, but it usually works.

http://www.asiachart.com/

[badge]

Thanks again Lanna, the asiachart site is up today.

[Abrak]

Has anyone noticed the very sharp movement in UST yields - from 3.6% to 2.7% at say 10 year over the last four months. More amazing is Japanese bonds which at 10 years have gone from 1.4% to about 0.9%. Theoretically this should have already caused the market to come down as the lower yields imply lower real growth and/or inflation. While equities havent budged (the historic correlation is very close.)

While this could be bad news for equities, at some point the divergence becomes logical. I do not believe an equity investor would buy a 10 year bond at 0.9% in general - deflation or not. Because at some point assets will be cheap enough that he wishes to buy them with cash.

What I mean by that is that personally I price everything against cash currently which yields nothing.

[badge]

Its an aging dichotomy.