The Stock Market

[flying]

Siam I would love to hear who these "Other Countries" are that have recovered from much more severe debt issues are. Not debt compared to GDP but external debt outright.

Hmm, I'll be nice and refrain from my usual. We are largest country in the world and have debt. Following your logic, Iceland, Spain, Portegul, Greece are healthy economies.

Play fare and don't make posts that will excite your pals. It is hard to argue logically after posts like the above but you know that.

Not at all.....It is not meant to excite it is just a basic external debt.

It is easier to look at for me because like I said it is very understandable.

X amount of debt needs X amount of servicing.

After all my answer was in rely to your statement that the debt was easily serviced.or,,,,

" They will continue to service those debts and are in the process of coming to the realization that the current debt accumulation is unsustainable "

Which in itself is a contradiction because you said even they are realizing it is unsustainable.

To me that means they will not be able to service it as it is unsustainable.

I agree with you

To justify it with a % of GDP is just a whitewash IMO especially so at this time when things are as I said in such a state of flux.

External debts lists are easy to find. Even wiki has one...albeit 12/09 dated....But you get a picture from it that is easily understood.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

Edited October 10, 2010 by flying

[Naam]

Just laughing at the doomers that called it all wrong. if I remember right you lead the brigade.

Why I'm so vested in proofing you doomers wrong is a mystery to me

Jai yen yen Siam....I said one beer you sound like you have had a keg ...proofing?

You have me confused with another as I am not a doomer. A disgusted citizen perhaps but not a doomer.

Now jai yen yen dont be so moho/ gnood nid

Good luck in the markets....I mean that. I left in 2000 but never asked any to follow me. To each their own.

i concur and would like to point out that Flying is at the most a back-bencher who used to shout "HEAR HEAR" when General Midas and Colonel AlexLah envisioned the apocalyptic riders gallop back and forth.

but i also admit that there was a time when i feared the worst and i tried to implement all kinds of countermeasures. and i freely admit that Midas is in principle right when he foresees gloom and forecasts the "shaving" not only of the common man but of investors too. the bullsh... fairy tale "if debt is x percentage of GDP then OK" what the eggheads at universities teach future eggheads will become intolerable and obsolete.

there is a point of no return as far as debt is concerned. in many countries that point has been reached and a catastrophe can only be avoided with the harshest measures which in turn might trigger the masses under the leadership of Colonel and then Field Marshal AlexLah to an uproar. a different animal is that uproar as well as tarring and feathering of some politicians or using AK47s is not a solution and the backlash of those in power (who have the fire power) might be terrible.

to sum it up. i partly agree with SiamAmerican and say "make hay when the sun shines!" i don't agree with his perception that the world can keep on with financial and debt meddling till pigs can fly.

:jap:

[midas]

Just laughing at the doomers that called it all wrong. if I remember right you lead the brigade.

Why I'm so vested in proofing you doomers wrong is a mystery to me

Jai yen yen Siam....I said one beer you sound like you have had a keg ...proofing?

You have me confused with another as I am not a doomer. A disgusted citizen perhaps but not a doomer.

Now jai yen yen dont be so moho/ gnood nid

Good luck in the markets....I mean that. I left in 2000 but never asked any to follow me. To each their own.

i concur and would like to point out that Flying is at the most a back-bencher who used to shout "HEAR HEAR" when General Midas and Colonel AlexLah envisioned the apocalyptic riders gallop back and forth.

but i also admit that there was a time when i feared the worst and i tried to implement all kinds of countermeasures. and i freely admit that Midas is in principle right when he foresees gloom and forecasts the "shaving" not only of the common man but of investors too. the bullsh... fairy tale "if debt is x percentage of GDP then OK" what the eggheads at universities teach future eggheads will become intolerable and obsolete.

there is a point of no return as far as debt is concerned. in many countries that point has been reached and a catastrophe can only be avoided with the harshest measures which in turn might trigger the masses under the leadership of Colonel and then Field Marshal AlexLah to an uproar. a different animal is that uproar as well as tarring and feathering of some politicians or using AK47s is not a solution and the backlash of those in power (who have the fire power) might be terrible.

to sum it up. i partly agree with SiamAmerican and say "make hay when the sun shines!" i don't agree with his perception that the world can keep on with financial and debt meddling till pigs can fly.

:jap:

Yes I agree with this assessment about flying.

And I even confess to having been a doom and gloomer and I make absolutely no apologies because siamamerican seems to be basing his assessment mainly on the “ performance “ of the stock market.

But a stock market rally ( and in particular this one ) is as much of an indicator of economic ( and moral ) health of an economy as me going in a group down to the Camobodian border and after a winning day at the Casino declaring the Financial Crisis is over.

A big part of the challenge for me has been actually defining what the true cause of the crisis was / still is because its like a lasagna- there is layer upon layer of things that need to be corrected.

Getting rid of the Fed would be a good start and acknowledging that fractional reserve banking is wrong. But I am also amazed that no one has mentioned the even the recent foreclosure fraud because there are suggestions the US housing market could come to a complete stop ( 40 State Attorney Generals have halted ALL foreclosures ) and that cannot be good for sentiment ? But even the fact that TPTB considered passing HR3808 to me shows the degree of corruption in the system and that 2 years after all this started the average guy is still being told today to bend over by the politicians and bankers. The system is rotten to the core.

Maybe because I had my own business I think this way but I prefer to tackle the real problem first i.e. how to pay off the debts and stop living beyond our means then you can think of “"making hay when the sun shines! “

[siamamerican]

After all my answer was in rely to your statement that the debt was easily serviced.or,,,,

" They will continue to service those debts and are in the process of coming to the realization that the current debt accumulation is unsustainable "

Which in itself is a contradiction because you said even they are realizing it is unsustainable.

To me that means they will not be able to service it as it is unsustainable.

I agree with you

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

Please don't start misrepresenting my statements again. I do my best not to misrepresent you and would appreciate the same. It is funny how if someone claims something on the internet everyone takes it as gospel. E.g., Naam repeating your false statement.

I never stated it would be easily be serviced. You probably wanted me to but that is much different than me actually stating it. I did state that the US and Europe ( much more debt any way you want to work the numbers ) are starting to realize their current situation in not sustainable. I also mentioned that it will be a painful process correcting their excessive leverage.

You know you have a weaker argument went it comes to debt compared to economic output so you are now using total debt to make your point. I'm not going to waste my time explaining how irrational this logic is because you already, I would hope, know this.

Flying you have been wrong about 90% of the time the last 2 years when it comes to predicting the future. Your fault is you love drama and ignore history. You sit around with your TV friends and get wrapped up in conspiracy theories and worst case scenarios. Sorry to ruin your wet dream but the real life is boring and repetitive. What goes up, in most cases comes down. Debt goes up and debt will come down. These cycles can be very painful but we were living in surreal world during Bush's presidency. It didn't take a genius to forecast it wasn't going to end well but we were all making money and didn't care. You were building houses that were probably financed at banks that you now dislike. Why didn't you refuse to build homes if people couldn't afford them.

We are polar opposites. Not an insult - most on this forum would take it as a compliment.

[siamamerican]

but i also admit that there was a time when i feared the worst and i tried to implement all kinds of countermeasures. and i freely admit that Midas is in principle right when he foresees gloom and forecasts the "shaving" not only of the common man but of investors too. the bullsh... fairy tale "if debt is x percentage of GDP then OK" what the eggheads at universities teach future eggheads will become intolerable and obsolete.

there is a point of no return as far as debt is concerned. in many countries that point has been reached and a catastrophe can only be avoided with the harshest measures which in turn might trigger the masses under the leadership of Colonel and then Field Marshal AlexLah to an uproar. a different animal is that uproar as well as tarring and feathering of some politicians or using AK47s is not a solution and the backlash of those in power (who have the fire power) might be terrible.

to sum it up. i partly agree with SiamAmerican and say "make hay when the sun shines!" i don't agree with his perception that the world can keep on with financial and debt meddling till pigs can fly.

:jap:

Never stated that the world can keep on. Flying claimed I stated the US and EU could "easily" service their debts.

Here is what I stated:

They will continue to service those debts and are in the process of coming to the realization that the current debt accumulation is unsustainable. It is going to be painful and in the end the world as a whole will recover from the financial crisis.

Flying took the liberty to change my statement and then post it as if I wrote it.

After all my answer was in rely to your statement that the debt was easily serviced.or,,,,

Which in itself is a contradiction because you said even they are realizing it is unsustainable.

To me that means they will not be able to service it as it is unsustainable.

Hmm, I state the governments are realizing it in unsustainable and he claims that this is a contradiction. Rationality isn't going to prevail here.

Edited October 10, 2010 by siamamerican

[flying]

Please don't start misrepresenting my statements again. I do my best not to misrepresent you and would appreciate the same.

Ummm no actually you are easily excited.

This is your actual claim that I responded too...

Other countries have recovered form much more severe debt issues and are doing fine today.

All I initially said was no country had ever amassed a severe debt like the one the USA holds now. It was you who then got excited to prove it in any way possible....Yet you cannot as it is as I said..... A new high for a debt accumulated by a country.

Flying you have been wrong about 90% of the time the last 2 years when it comes to predicting the future. Your fault is you love drama and ignore history.

You were building houses that were probably financed at banks that you now dislike. Why didn't you refuse to build homes if people couldn't afford them.

Sorry but I have to say you again have me confused with another.... I already told you I left the Stock Market in 2000 & never went back so i did not make any bets there in the last 2 years.....So....I have not been wrong. While I don't give a sh_t about drama I did get an idea from history & acted on it.

I did make one bet elsewhere & that was in physical precious metals where I sunk 50% of my liquid assets. I realize I *may* have made more as *you?* did or did not in the stock market ...who knows...who cares...but....I am quite happy with how it has gone with my AU & especially surprised at how well my AG has done since Oct 2008

Lastly I see you remember a little of my work but not all of it.

During the boom I unfortunately was for the most part tied to a company as a project manager & Systems Administrator so did not do much building as a contractor.

But after 2008

Yes I did build a few homes again but I built for folks who had $$$.

You see I build small custom homes for folks. That was my niche as such they were usually folks building a 2nd vacation home.

But yes back then as I watched the developers going nuts I did mention more than once that it would be the banks in the end that would eat it. Rightfully so as it was their own stupidity feeding it.

I never said I hated the banks but I did feel they should suffer the consequences of their actions.

So did our law makers until they were buffaloed by the stories Hank Paulson et al told them before the bait & switch.

Sadly as we all now know it was not the banks that ate it but the people.

That I choose to associate as little as possible with banks now is a personal choice based on that outcome.

Ok hope that clears it up for you Siam

Jai yen yen it is after all just a forum

Edited October 10, 2010 by flying

[gregb]

Why I'm so vested in proofing you doomers wrong is a mystery to me.

Probably because you don't understand the first thing about what peak oil actually means, nor have spent any time trying to study the physics behind the global collapse currently in progress.

Unfortunately, the decline of the global industrial civilization is going to be a slow grind, punctuated by short, steep cliffs and then partial recoveries, before collapse takes hold again. We are just in the very early stages, and during each pseudo recovery people such as yourself will be telling all of us who have studied the numbers that we are doomers and only you can see the light. Unfortunately, lack of energy is going to permanently cripple any false recoveries each and every time. I don't particularly enjoy that thought but any honest individual can hardly help from coming to the conclusion.

I gave up long ago trying to convince anyone who didn't want to live in reality, but it is important to continue reminding the masses out there who are interested in learning the truth of the actual nature of what is occurring.

There is no long term hope. Enjoy your optimism while it lasts. Just as history has proven so many times when civilizations collapsed in the past, this false recovery will be over soon enough, and it will be replaced by even greater misery.

[Naam]

peak oil

[Naam]

CIA factbook (2009) https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2178rank.html

-global oil reserves without shale / tar sands, recent additional findings not included = 1,370 billion barrels

-additonal findings Orinoco Basin (PdVSA), South Atlantic (Petrobras) and Iraq 280 billion barrels

-Orinoco tar sands 1,200 billion barrels

-average annual global crude consumption presently 330 million barrels, average increase p.a. 1.8%

no more oil by Christmas? the answer is most probably "yes", the year however is not known :jap:

[lannarebirth]

Siam I would love to hear who these "Other Countries" are that have recovered from much more severe debt issues are. Not debt compared to GDP but external debt outright.

Hmm, I'll be nice and refrain from my usual. We are largest country in the world and have debt. Following your logic, Iceland, Spain, Portegul, Greece are healthy economies.

Play fare and don't make posts that will excite your pals. It is hard to argue logically after posts like the above but you know that.

Not at all.....It is not meant to excite it is just a basic external debt.

It is easier to look at for me because like I said it is very understandable.

X amount of debt needs X amount of servicing.

After all my answer was in rely to your statement that the debt was easily serviced.or,,,,

" They will continue to service those debts and are in the process of coming to the realization that the current debt accumulation is unsustainable "

Which in itself is a contradiction because you said even they are realizing it is unsustainable.

To me that means they will not be able to service it as it is unsustainable.

I agree with you

To justify it with a % of GDP is just a whitewash IMO especially so at this time when things are as I said in such a state of flux.

External debts lists are easy to find. Even wiki has one...albeit 12/09 dated....But you get a picture from it that is easily understood.

http://en.wikipedia....y_external_debt

I'm not sure why anybody bothers responding to posts from this guy. He's a pool boy turned unrepentant fraudulent NINJA loan writer. Probably ought to be in jail.

[midas]

I'm not sure why anybody bothers responding to posts from this guy. He's a pool boy turned unrepentant fraudulent NINJA loan writer. Probably ought to be in jail.

That explains a lot

[Abrak]

I do not wish to get to immersed in this topic, only to point out that in, economic terms, there is an enormous difference between external debt in your national currency and external debt in the reserve currency.

I do know an economist named Stelios, who you might believe is confused between the two (as it isnt so obvious if you are talking Euros), but he can explain things very clearly if you can catch him between 11.00am and 1.00pm.

[siamamerican]

I'm not sure why anybody bothers responding to posts from this guy. He's a pool boy turned unrepentant fraudulent NINJA loan writer. Probably ought to be in jail.

Hmm, I also worked in as a gas station attendant and a waiter in the past. I never wrote any fraudulent loans so it would be hard to be repentant. I was a VP at bank that didn't engage in originating fraudulent loans.

The difference between winners in life and yourself is that we actually accomplish things and at the same time avoid blaming others when things go south. The weak and pathetic resort to lies and half truths as you did in the above post. I always wondered if people like yourself were born losers or was it learned. If the latter, you took the learning process very seriously.

Edited October 11, 2010 by siamamerican

[flying]

I'm not sure why anybody bothers responding to posts from this guy. He's a pool boy turned unrepentant fraudulent NINJA loan writer. Probably ought to be in jail.

Ah I did not know that....it does explain the *attitude*

[Naam]

"external debt"

Luxembourg total 1,994,000,000,000 / per capita 4,028,283 / %GDP 3854%

[lannarebirth]

I'm not sure why anybody bothers responding to posts from this guy. He's a pool boy turned unrepentant fraudulent NINJA loan writer. Probably ought to be in jail.

Hmm, I also worked in as a gas station attendant and a waiter in the past. I never wrote any fraudulent loans so it would be hard to be repentant. I was a VP at bank that didn't engage in originating fraudulent loans.

The difference between winners in life and yourself is that we actually accomplish things and at the same time avoid blaming others when things go south. The weak and pathetic resort to lies and half truths as you did in the above post. I always wondered if people like yourself were born losers or was it learned. If the latter, you took the learning process very seriously.

Well, I'm judging from your own posting history. ThaiVisa's posting history doesn't seem to back that far now, but those of us that were here will recall your gloating over hanging so much worthless paper.

Hey anyway, what do you maKe of this?

[siamamerican]

More of the list that Naam posted in jest I think. Why the preoccupation with the USA?

Also, as another poster stated, I think Abrak, external debt alone doesn't tell the whole story. It helps to include reserves, balance of trade, etc when you look at debt.

Regardless, what a mess we (developed world) has created. Unwinding is probably going to be a painful process.

External Debt as a percentage of GDP

Luxembourg 3854%

Ireland 606%%

Netherlands 470%

United Kingdom 416%

Hong Kong 311%

Switzerland 271%

Belgium 267%

Portugal 223%

Austria 212%

Denmark 196%

France 188%

Much further down you have the USA (94%) and Australia (92%. Now if you look at reserves and trade balances there is a world of difference between the two countries.

[Abrak]

"external debt"

Luxembourg total 1,994,000,000,000 / per capita 4,028,283 / %GDP 3854%

What I really like about that statistic is that my bet is that Luxembourg along the way has guaranteed all those deposits and probably the senior debt as well (I am willing to bet on some high loan deposit ratios). I would be highly surprised if there is a Luxembourg bank with a loan deposit ratio of less than 100%. And even if there is it is only because of non-domestic deposits.

So what is their guarantee based on. My guess it is because they might be able to tax their population of rich tax avoiders virtually infinite amounts of money while losing sight on the fact that they welcome rich tax avoiders.

[siamamerican]

Well, I'm judging from your own posting history. ThaiVisa's posting history doesn't seem to back that far now, but those of us that were here will recall your gloating over hanging so much worthless paper.

Hey anyway, what do you maKe of this?

I would NEVER gloat about originating worthless paper nor selling that paper. On an internet forum, individuals make unfounded claims which are hard to defend. You now have taken my past completely out of context. I'm not going to resort to unfounded claims about your past and I'll try to drop this argument now.

As for the stock market, my history of posting on this forum is consistent form the beginning of the crisis to now. The fact that I worked on a farm in past castrating pigs is irrelevant. I base my investing on value, in some cases I error on value judgement (purchased 2000 shares BP 1st week of April - OUCH!!!! ), and not fringe economic scenarios. It's an odds game and I try to rationally choose the scenario with the highest probability of actually occurring.

I don't think your technical investment style is profitable for 99% of investors in the longterm but have at it. To be honest, I based many of my investments on technical moves in the market during the crisis. This strategy, probably mostly luck, worked for me in 2008-2009. Now, I'm back to being a boring value investor.

Well, there is my attempt at being nice.

[Naam]

More of the list that Naam posted in jest I think.

jest? wrong thinking! only a totally ignorant person or most probably an absolute idiot could have entered in Wiki the figures for Luxembourg and Switzerland even he might have copied from the CIA factbook.

[Naam]

"external debt"

Luxembourg total 1,994,000,000,000 / per capita 4,028,283 / %GDP 3854%

What I really like about that statistic is that my bet is that Luxembourg along the way has guaranteed all those deposits and probably the senior debt as well (I am willing to bet on some high loan deposit ratios). I would be highly surprised if there is a Luxembourg bank with a loan deposit ratio of less than 100%. And even if there is it is only because of non-domestic deposits.

So what is their guarantee based on. My guess it is because they might be able to tax their population of rich tax avoiders virtually infinite amounts of money while losing sight on the fact that they welcome rich tax avoiders.

simple explanation: the external debt figures for L and CH comprise all financial vehicles (no matter whether from Kazakhstan or any other country) which have been established in Luxembourg and Switzerland under Lux or Suisse jurisdiction. as simple as that. but would some low level underpaid CIA employee know that?

[Abrak]

simple explanation: the external debt figures for L and CH comprise all financial vehicles (no matter whether from Kazakhstan or any other country) which have been established in Luxembourg and Switzerland under Lux or Suisse jurisdiction. as simple as that. but would some low level underpaid CIA employee know that?

Yeah right simple explanation. It obviously doesnt reflect the leverage in their actually economy, we got that. But we have to wonder exactly how much that 'guarantee' is actually worth. It is not as though the countries are in a position to actually guarantee it at the point the guarantee was exercised.

Ireland, we might say, is struggling with this issue at the moment.

All I am saying is a guarantee on Luxembourg's banking liabilities be they deposits or loans is simply a mirage. The country is in no position to guarantee anything beyond the quality of coffee.

[siamamerican]

Hey anyway, what do you maKe of this?

Sorry, not meant as an insult, it means nothing to me. I don't possess your chart acumen. I assume it is telling you that there is opportunity to go long or short. I have no intention of changing my positions and hence don't follow the technical side of the markets.

[Naam]

simple explanation: the external debt figures for L and CH comprise all financial vehicles (no matter whether from Kazakhstan or any other country) which have been established in Luxembourg and Switzerland under Lux or Suisse jurisdiction. as simple as that. but would some low level underpaid CIA employee know that?

Yeah right simple explanation. It obviously doesnt reflect the leverage in their actually economy, we got that. But we have to wonder exactly how much that 'guarantee' is actually worth. It is not as though the countries are in a position to actually guarantee it at the point the guarantee was exercised.

Ireland, we might say, is struggling with this issue at the moment.

All I am saying is a guarantee on Luxembourg's banking liabilities be they deposits or loans is simply a mirage. The country is in no position to guarantee anything beyond the quality of coffee.

Luxembourg does not guarantee banking liabilities but guarantees all deposits. i am not an expert but it is interesting that financial gurus consider Lux a lesser sovereign risk than Germany.

[Naam]

All I am saying is a guarantee on Luxembourg's banking liabilities be they deposits or loans is simply a mirage. The country is in no position to guarantee anything beyond the quality of coffee.

food Abrak! compared to its size Lux city has the most and best restaurants per km² on this planet

[siamamerican]

simple explanation: the external debt figures for L and CH comprise all financial vehicles (no matter whether from Kazakhstan or any other country) which have been established in Luxembourg and Switzerland under Lux or Suisse jurisdiction. as simple as that. but would some low level underpaid CIA employee know that?

Yeah right simple explanation. It obviously doesnt reflect the leverage in their actually economy, we got that. But we have to wonder exactly how much that 'guarantee' is actually worth. It is not as though the countries are in a position to actually guarantee it at the point the guarantee was exercised.

Ireland, we might say, is struggling with this issue at the moment.

All I am saying is a guarantee on Luxembourg's banking liabilities be they deposits or loans is simply a mirage. The country is in no position to guarantee anything beyond the quality of coffee.

It is rarely simple when it comes to Naam's posts. I avoid arguing with his views because inevitably I look the fool. Too much wit and the knowledge he possesses is rarely shared. Usually in the vain of the above esoteric post he ridicules without providing how he makes his own economic judgement.

In the end he is entertaining and when he dummies down his views to my level, they are interesting. I know Naam, I'm an idiot.

[lannarebirth]

Hey anyway, what do you maKe of this?

Sorry, not meant as an insult, it means nothing to me. I don't possess your chart acumen. I assume it is telling you that there is opportunity to go long or short. I have no intention of changing my positions and hence don't follow the technical side of the markets.

Volatility closes outside the Bollinger Band tend to signal reversals. Daily chart being short term. Weekly chart better, being intermediate term.

[Paulo1]

Hey anyway, what do you maKe of this?

Sorry, not meant as an insult, it means nothing to me. I don't possess your chart acumen. I assume it is telling you that there is opportunity to go long or short. I have no intention of changing my positions and hence don't follow the technical side of the markets.

Volatility closes outside the Bollinger Band tend to signal reversals. Daily chart being short term. Weekly chart better, being intermediate term.

US DOLLAR

The December dollar index finished the month of September down 4.75%. Part of this decline stemmed from a lack of confidence in the US economy along with the chance of further Fed quantitative easing as it attempts to reinvigorate growth. Other foreign currencies that have not seen the uncertainty that the US dollar has in recent months, as well as commodity markets like gold and cotton, have broken out to new contract highs, as investors that have sought tangible assets as a store of value have benefited. Additionally, ongoing chatter regarding the Chinese Yuan exchange rate policy, political uncertainties surrounding US politics, and concerns over soaring US debt loads have inspired investors to shun the greenback in search of safety and higher returns.

This move sent the December US Dollar Index below key support at the 80.75-81.00 area, inflicting significant technical damage, including the breakdown of a head and shoulders top. This forecasts much lower prices, with the break below neckline at 80.75 projecting a downside objective of 72.38. Coincidentally, this price level corresponds with the November 2009 low of 74.21. However, as this pattern developed the market became deeply oversold, so traders need to be wary of short covering bounce back towards the 79.90 to 80.50 area. = sell on strength.

[Naam]

1. It is rarely simple when it comes to Naam's posts. I avoid arguing with his views because inevitably I look the fool. Too much wit and the knowledge he possesses is rarely shared. Usually in the vain of the above esoteric post he ridicules without providing how he makes his own economic judgement.

2. In the end he is entertaining and when he dummies down his views to my level, they are interesting. I know Naam, I'm an idiot.

1. i have not aired any views but stated an undeniable fact as far as external debt of Luxembourg and Switzerland is concerned. stating a fact is not an economic judgment.

2. why you feel blamed when CIA factbook or Wikipedia publishes rubbish is beyond my comprehension.

please elaborate.

[Abrak]

1. i have not aired any views but stated an undeniable fact as far as external debt of Luxembourg and Switzerland is concerned. stating a fact is not an economic judgment.

please elaborate.

When there is a single currency what is actually an external debt does become debateable for any country or any bank. So while you are stating an undeniable fact you are also rendering an economic judgment. If you start thinking in terms of a countries external debt within a centralized currency union you are automatically assuming that currency union will fail.

Now I happen to believe it will fail as a matter of choice (and on the basis that I am more likely to be right than wrong.) However when individuals start talking about external debts and facts, they should realize that monetary union was always a myth rather than a reality.